DNA analysis: 15% of convicted rapists are falsely accused

This is an interesting study that relied on DNA evidence to determine if convicted rapists were falsely accused. According to the researchers, 15% of  subjects had been falsely accused.

UPDATE: This study suggests that the percent of all men falsely accused of rape is higher than 15%. The men included in this study were convicts, so these were cases in which the criminal justice system believed the accusers. An unknown number of men were accused but their cases were dismissed, or they were found not guilty because the accusers were judged to be lying.

Social scientists are so helpful! They say somewhere between 1.5% to 90% of rape allegations are false!

This paper reviews studies that estimates the percent of rape allegations that turn out to be false. If I get time, I'll do a critical analysis of the individual studies, but for now let's say that the estimates range from 1.5% to 90%; in other words, I can guess with more precision than our social scientists.

It wouldn't be unreasonable, for starters, to focus on the median study which finds that 11% of allegations are false. If true, most women tell the truth, but there are enough liars to show that the maxim to "believe every woman" is simply evil. (Sorry about crooked columns!)

Table 1. A Selection of Findings on the Prevalence of False Rape Allegations

Source                                                       False Reporting Rate                     

                                                               Number                   %

Theilade and Thomsen (1986)             1 out of 56               1.5%

                                                             4 out of 39                10%

New York Rape Squad (1974)             N/A                            2% 

Hursch and Selkin (1974)                    10 out of 545              2% 

Kelly et al. (2005)                                67 out of 2,643           3%

                                                                                               22%

Geis (1978)                                          N/A                        3–31% 

Smith (1989)                                        17 out of 447           3.8 %

U.S. Department of Justice (1997)       N/A                             8% 

Clark and Lewis (1977)                       12 out of 116           10.3% 

Harris and Grace (1999)                       53 out of 483          10.9%

                                                            123 out of 483             25%

Lea et al. (2003)                                   42 out of 379             11% 

HMCPSI/HMIC (2002)                     164 out of 1,379       11.8% 

McCahill et al. (1979)                        218 out of 1,198       18.2% 

Philadelphia police study (1968)         74 out of 370              20% 

Chambers and Millar (1983)                44 out of 196          22.4% 

Grace et al. (1992)                                80 out of 335             24% 

Jordan (2004)                                        68 out of 164            41%

                                                              62 out of 164             38%

Kanin (1994)                                         45 out of 109            41% 

Gregory and Lees (1996)                      49 out of 109            45% 

Maclean (1979)                                     16 out of 34              47%

Stewart (1981)                                      16 out of 18               90%

New study: Why women make false accusations of rape

Here is a new study which analyzes the motives for making false allegations of rape: 

The list of motives by Kanin (1994) is the most cited list of motives to file a false allegation of rape. Kanin posited that complainants file a false allegation out of revenge, to produce an alibi or to get sympathy. A new list of motives is proposed in which gain is the predominant factor. In the proposed list, complainants file a false allegation out of material gain, emotional gain, or a disturbed mental state. The list can be subdivided into eight different categories: material gain, alibi, revenge, sympathy, attention, a disturbed mental state, relabeling, or regret. To test the validity of the list, a sample of 57 proven false allegations were studied at and provided by the National Unit of the Dutch National Police (NU). The complete files were studied to ensure correct classification by the NU and to identify the motives of the complainants. The results support the overall validity of the list. Complainants were primarily motivated by emotional gain. Most false allegations were used to cover up other behavior such as adultery or skipping school. Some complainants, however, reported more than one motive. A large proportion, 20% of complainants, said that they did not know why they filed a false allegation. The results confirm the complexity of motivations for filing false allegations and the difficulties associated with archival studies. In conclusion, the list of Kanin is, based on the current results, valid but insufficient to explain all the different motives of complainants to file a false allegation.

Sex-Ratios and Rape

Here's an interesting article arguing that an excess number of males in an area drives more marginal men to compete with other men with high-risk strategies like rape. The graph below shows the correlation between a surplus of men and the rate of rape. The size of the relationship--.42--is moderate. Race is a strong state-level predictor of violence crime, but percent black should also be associated with a surplus of women. It would be good to see the sex-ratio/rape correlations with race adjusted for.

Explanations of rape

Here's new research from Evolution and Human Behavior:

We use data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System to examine the effects of offender and victim age on whether male offenders commit sexual assault while robbing women. Restricting analyses to robberies reveals the offenders' age preferences since it allows one to control for the effects of opportunity. We find that robbers of all ages are most likely to sexually assault women at ages 15–29 years, ages when their reproductive potential is highest. However, in contrast to the idea that rape is a direct adaptation, victims are no more likely to be raped than sexually assaulted at these ages. The age of the offender is also a strong predictor of sexual assault. The likelihood that a robber commits a sexual assault increases from age 12 years until he reaches his early thirties when it begins to decline. This age pattern corresponds, to some extent, to age differences in the male sex drive.

The findings contradict the feminist theory of rape. Given a robbery, criminals are more likely to use the opportunity to sexually assault a female victim if she is young. According to feminists, rape is a way to put a woman in her place. If this were the motivation, I would expect men to target powerful women. A criminal would get a much bigger power rush from raping Hillary Clinton than a little 15 year old nobody. I imagine the feminist would respond that Hillary is a high-risk target--perps target weak victims because they are more likely to get away with it. I would agree with the view that rapists are opportunists, but that just supports a rational choice theory of rape.

Asian rape victims

I read somewhere that many Asian rape victims are attacked by black men, but I wanted to check it out for myself. 

I looked at the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) over the years 1992 through 2005 in order to maximize cases. Rape is rare (thank God), so I only found 11 cases of raped Asian (and Pacific Islander) women. Of the offenders, 5 were white, 4 were "other," and two were unknown. I'm assuming that most of the 4 "others" were Asians (Hispanics are a possibility as well); an Asian category is not available. None of the perps was black. The NCVS can't tell us if any of those whites are Hispanic since, according to the survey, Hispanics can be victims but not offenders. 

The numbers are just too small to tell us much. Victims were also asked about attempted rapes. Asian women reported one white, one black, and one "other" perpetrator.   

More evidence that rape IS about sex: Feminists portray rapists as men who crave domination over women, and using one's penis on her is incidental. If this were true, why would rapists also frequently rely on non-violent techniques to push sex on a women?

With data I've used in a number of recent posts, 851 college men were asked if they had raped anyone in the past year. Two percent said they had. Of that group, 76.5% also admitted that they had used alcohol or drugs to have sex with a woman when she didn't want to. The same number also said yes to a question about getting a female to have sex who didn't want to by using his authority over her (boss, teacher, camp supervisor, etc.). Finally, 94.1% reported that they had overwhelmed at least one woman with arguments and pressure.

So rapists use a variety of techniques to get sex from a woman. They coax, pressure and use drugs and power as well as threats and force. This is inconsistent with the image of a man driven to humiliate a woman, but matches perfectly with the idea that men crave sex, and some men are willing to ratchet up the harshness of their means of getting it until they are successful.

The numbers also show that the percentage of men willing to use some technique increases as the degree of coercion falls. Two percent used threats and force; 2.2% used their authority; 3.8% used alcohol or drugs; and 9.8% used arguments and pressure. Some men will use techniques short of violence, while a smaller number will use whatever it takes.

Evidence for the outrageous thesis that rape is sexually motivated: The Longitudinal Study of Violence Against Women asked 718 college girls their attitudes about when it is appropriate to have sex, and if they have been victims of rape. Here are the percentages:


Percent raped by when it is okay to have sex

Any time 10.1
On casual dates 26.1
If dating regularly 8.6
If in love and engaged 9.1
After marriage only 5.6


There is a clear pattern here of risk increasing with openness to sex, but why are girls who will sleep with guys at any time less likely to be raped than those who approve of sex on casual dates?

I have long suspected that, contrary to the theory that sexual assault is about control, most rape is sexually motivated. A man is after sexual gratification and will use force as a last resort to get it.

One central fact here is that most sexual assaults are "date rapes."

A girl who will sleep with anyone, on the one hand, exposes herself to a lot of men which elevates her risk above that of the girl who, say, only wants sex after marriage, but she rarely resists the men who attempt sex with so her risk is lower than the more discerning girl who thinks sex is only appropriate if you are on some kind of real date, even if a casual one. This girl experiences the highest rate of assault because she has encounters with many men--some of whom are brutes--but she isn't going to have sex indiscriminately, and on those occasions where she resists advances, the guy might decide to use coercion to get what he wants.

To those of you who subscribe to the "rape isn't about sex" thesis, please explain the numbers displayed above.