Your complete five-minute summary of yet another round of 'negotiations' in Geneva

"I’ll save you five minutes of your time today so you don’t have to read the news about yet another round of 'negotiations' in Geneva.

"[First,] Ukraine is still willing to agree to absolutely any ceasefires, compromises, a halt to the war, a freeze along the front line, and all possible and impossible mineral deals to please Donald Trump -- but it is not willing to capitulate and be destroyed by Russia. 

"[Second,] Russia still refuses any ceasefires, any compromises, any halt to the war -- and agrees to nothing short of Ukrainian surrender, with ever-growing demands leading ultimately to Ukraine’s destruction. 

"And [third] the U.S. administration still has neither the power to force Ukraine to surrender, nor the conscience or the wisdom to stop this idiotic charade with Putin and instead to begin pressuring Russia and arming Ukraine so that Ukraine can make Russia accept a stable and lasting peace. 

"[In conclusion:] The parties agreed on nothing and will meet again at yet another meaningless 'summit' in a month, so that Russia can continue buying time and making a fool of Donald Trump while continuing to destroy Ukraine. 

"You’re welcome."

~ Ilya Ponomarenko

Summing up

"Just a reminder that as of now, Iran is still run by cruel theocrats, Venezuela is still run by far-left socialists, Russia is still run by a destructive dictatorship, and Ukraine is still run by a vibrant democracy that is is basically left alone to fight.

"Meanwhile, Donald Trump's priority is to invade Denmark and Minnesota. And to invite Putin to help run Gaza."

~ composite quote by Phillips O'Brien, Dan Smith, Clotilde I. & Alastair Twin

Trump envoy Steve Witkoff's plan for peace in Ukraine has Kremlin fingerprints all across it. That's no surprise, says Їne Back Їversen in this guest post, because his entire career does too.

Let’s talk about Steve Witkoff

Guest post by Їne Back Їversen

LET'S TALK ABOUT STEVE WITKOFF, because I think the narrative of him being a “useful idiot” is a dangerous trap to walk in.

It’s darker than that.

Witkoff has spent three decades swimming in russian money, russian mob circles, and russian real-estate pipeline.
 
He isn’t just “a MAGA dude” advising Trump on Russia–Ukraine. Witkoff is of russian descent, built his fortune through New York City networks flooded with post-Soviet criminal money, and is now pushing the Kremlin wish-list, aka the so called “peace plan.”

It’s not a coincidence. It’s continuity. 

In the 1990s, Manhattan’s luxury real estate became the #1 laundromat for russian criminal networks fleeing the collapse of the USSR.

The FBI has testified to Congress about this era. It was no secret.

And who rose to power right then?

Steve Witkoff & Donald Trump.

The Trump Tower in the 80s–90s was filled with Russian mobsters, arms dealers, money launderers, “businessmen” tied to Russian crime boss Semion Mogilevich, and shell companies buying in cash.

Trump didn’t just tolerate it — he blindly” welcomed it.

Trump's buddy Witkoff played on the commercial version of the same ecosystem.

While Trump handled condos bought with suitcases of cash, Witkoff handled big office buildings financed through opaque partnerships & distressed sellers.

Two men, one pipeline of russian capital.

Fast-forward to 2024–25, and Witkoff is Trump’s point man on Russia–Ukraine policy.

A man with zero diplomatic background, zero Ukraine expertise, & a large Russian network and a history of loud Pro-Kremlin cheerleading.

And here we are again, with the U.S flashing Russia's wish-list.

Déjà vu: In 2016, Paul Manafort (the former Trump campaign chairman) met Konstantin Kilimnik (a Russian intelligence asset) to discuss a “peace plan” for Ukraine that legitimised Russia’s invasion, installed a Moscow-approved leader, lifted sanctions, and forced Kyiv to negotiate under duress.

Sound familiar?

And how absurd to hear Trump again and again say “The war would have never started if I were president.”  When he knows darn well Russian invaded Ukraine in 2014. And you better believe that Trump will have hear the Manafort “Peace Plan” conversations many MANY times. 

So here we are again, this time with a 28-point “peace plan” presented handed over by Witkoff.

Same unhinged demands.

Same twisted narratives.

This is not innovation. This is recycling Kremlin policy. Delivered by business partners disguised as diplomacy. 

LET'S GO BACK TO Trump Round 1 again.

It’s easy to forget how disturbing Trump’s private meetings with Putin were:

• No US officials present
• No transcripts
• •No accountability
• Interpreters’ notes seized
• Policy outcomes mysteriously aligned with Russian goals 

And it’s the same now;

• Trump’s closed Alaska meeting with Putin. 
• Witkoff’s quiet trips to Moscow
• Off-record negotiations about Ukraine
• No transparency? Just “take my word for it, bro.”

Why is US policy on Ukraine being decided behind closed doors, without Ukraine?!

Yet the US demand from Ukraine is a the complete opposite, constant transparency, public statements, oversight, disclosures, visibility, “THANK ME!”

But from Russia?

Not a single demand, just “give them two weeks”

This isn’t diplomacy. It’s appeasement.

Witkoff’s public statements are indistinguishable from Russian propaganda regarding Russian language, “Territory is negotiable” etc.

Even in 2018, Witkoff criticized Western economic sanctions against Russia, imposed after Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea.

And notice how Witkoff consistently omits Russian war crimes, mass deportations, missile strikes on civilians, nuclear blackmail, and the documented genocide intent.

This is selective ignorance, aimed to whitewash & erase Russia's crimes & force the victim to compromise.

And many say: Witkoff & Trump are businessmen, they just want a deal.

But that deal with Russia was done long ago, many times; now Witkoff & Trump are doing their part of it: appeasing Moscow, pressuring Ukraine, undermining sanctions, forcing a deal ... and declaring it “peace.”

WITKOFF MADE HIS CAREER in a world where Russian money laundering was normalised, with Russian crime lords depicted as “investors,” “partners,” or “buyers.” This is the world that Manafort monetised, Trump depended on & Russian intelligence used as cover.

They didn’t exit that world, they brought it in.

Witkoff operates with zero scrutiny, because he’s framed as a “businessman” instead of a geopolitical actor. But he is shaping  US posture toward Russia, the U.S stance on war crimes, the direction of NATO policy, and Ukraine's future security.

Off the books, next to russia.

Witkoff is all but openly declaring that the U.S. now advocates for Russia. It’s not concealed. It’s directly hostile to Ukraine & EU security.

That’s the man who is tasked to sit with Russia to “negotiate” Ukraine —without Ukraine even at the table.

The pressure, demands & ultimatum all fall on Ukraine.

Yet Witkoff is a Russian echo chamber: “Ukraine should give up land”; “Ukraine can’t win”; “Peace requires Ukrainian concessions.”

These are not “opinions.”

These are Kremlin foreign-policy objectives. And Witkoff has  publicly stated this long before his current position.

The pattern is clear:

1990s: Russian capital enters NYC real estate, money on which both Trump & Witkoff thrive 
2016; Russia uses these lines for political access
2024 : Witkoff re-emerges as Trump’s Russia whisperer
2025: A new Kremlin-shaped “peace plan” is born

The “Russia hoax"-is far from a hoax. It’s misunderstood.

Are they russian agents? Probably not. Are they useful idiots, vessels for Russian policies with a history in the network. 100%!

They are men whose worldview, networks & financing were shaped inside a system of russian influence.

The question isn’t “Is he compromised?” The question is:

Why is US policy on Russia being shaped by someone whose entire worldview was formed in the one American industry that Russian intelligence spent decades infiltrating?

Ask instead: why is there so much willingness to ignore that? 

"There are two Putins."

Recently-retired MI6 head Richard Moore, Financial Times

“'I fundamentally assess that Putin is not interested in negotiations. There are no negotiations, not real negotiations. He’s attempting to play us,' [says former MI6 chief Richard Moore].

"According to Moore, there are two Putins. One is the cold-eyed realist, the ruthless leader who cuts deals when he has to. This is the Putin who last year accepted the loss of Syria and the ousting of his ally, the dictator Bashar al-Assad, and sought only to protect Russian bases there. The other Putin is ideological and has 'a deeply wired feeling that Ukraine doesn’t have the right to exist.' This Putin invaded Ukraine and his objective, says Moore, is not to bargain over slices of territory but to dominate.

"In Moore’s view, the only way to confront the ideological Putin is to pile so much pressure on him that he is forced to choose between fulfilling his legacy project in Ukraine and holding on to power. That’s why Moore argues that Ukraine should have the right to strike deep into Russia, and that more economic pressure should be brought to bear on the Putin regime. 'This is a very, very winnable contest,' he says. 'It’s particularly important that we don’t snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.'”

~ from an interview with the outgoing head of the UK's Secret Intelligence Service on the rise of China, why Putin is not interested in talks — and how screen spies aren’t always far from the truth, 'Former MI6 chief Richard Moore: Britain must regain the ‘power of example’'

Ukraine betrayed. Again.

"After months of alternately sucking up to Vladimir Putin and seemingly expressing anger towards him, it turns out the Trump administration has been secretly negotiating with Russia for a while now, cutting the Ukrainians out of the process, and a report at Axios* says they’re now planning to present the plan to Ukraine and force it on them. As for Europe, 'We don’t really care about the Europeans.' I tried to warn them."

~ Robert Tracinski from his post 'Tyranny Is Unaffordable'

* The report is behind a paywall. The Guardian reports the plan "would require Kyiv to surrender territory and severely limit the size of its military.

The draft plan, reported on Wednesday as Russian drone and missile strikes killed at least 25 people in the city of Ternopil, was reportedly developed by Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and the Kremlin adviser Kirill Dmitriev, would force draconian measures on Ukraine that would give Russia unprecedented control over the country’s military and political sovereignty. The plan is likely to be viewed as surrender in Kyiv.

"I will stop the war in 24 hours"

 Um ...

And also ...

“...it's a tough one”

“....it's possible that he doesn't want to make a deal”

“....there’s no deal until there’s a deal”

"....see what happens”

Compromise: A Ukranian example

"It is only in regard to concretes or particulars, implementing a mutually accepted basic principle, that one may compromise. For instance, one may bargain with a buyer over the price one wants to receive for one's product, and agree on a sum somewhere between one's demand and his offer. The mutually accepted basic principle, in such case, is the principle of trade, namely: that the buyer must pay the seller for his product. But if one wanted to be paid and the alleged buyer wanted to obtain one's product for nothing, no compromise, agreement or discussion would be possible, only the total surrender of one or the other.

There can be no compromise between a property owner and a burglar; offering the burglar a single teaspoon of one's silverware would not be a compromise, but a total surrender—the recognition of his right to one's property. ...

"Contrary to the fanatical belief of its advocates, compromise [on basic principles] does not satisfy, but dissatisfies everybody; it does not lead to general fulfillment, but to general frustration; those who try to be all things to all men, end up by not being anything to anyone. And more: the partial victory of an unjust claim, encourages the claimant to try further; the partial defeat of a just claim, discourages and paralyzes the victim. ...

"In any compromise between food and poison, it is only death that can win. In any compromise between good and evil, it is only evil that can profit. In that transfusion of blood which drains the good to feed the evil, the compromiser is the transmitting rubber tube . . ."

~ Ayn Rand, composite quote from here articles 'The Cashing-In: The Student 'Rebellion',' 'Doesn't Life Require Compromise?,' and 'Galt's Speech.' [Hat tip for cartoon Maksym Borodin]

"Tariffs Aren’t Liberating": Your Tuesday Tariffs Ramble [UPDATED]

UPDATE: Some more great links here curated by Don Boudreaux, to help you put this calamity on context.

Since it's the topic of the day a historic turning point in human affairs, the least I can do is offer readers a ramble around the topic of tariffs and the destruction of tariff wars — basically, around the many writers reciting the multiplicity of ways in which the Trump Administration has fucked us.

"“Liberation Day”: That is what US President Donald Trump has called Wednesday, April 2, the day he announced huge swaths of taxes on imports worldwide. Despite the label, it was far from a day of liberation. By making imports to the US more expensive, the government is actively increasing the cost of living for American consumers.
    "The Trump administration has fallen for one of the most common misconceptions about trade—that it only benefits a country when it is the exporter. This could not be further from the truth. One of the greatest benefits of free trade lies with the importing country, where consumers gain access to a huge range of goods, crucially, at lower prices.
    "Whether it’s clothes, food, medical supplies, or mobile phones, access to the global market reduces the cost of living and increases consumer choice, often alleviating poverty in the process.
    "It comes down to a very simple principle. No one person could produce everything he or she consumes. No family or household could do so either. No city, town, or province could produce absolutely everything they consume. Equally, no country can produce everything it consumes, nor should it. Attempts to achieve autarky are acts of economic self-harm. Freedom to exchange across borders is win-win: it allows consumers to access a plethora of goods and services, improving welfare overall."

Tariffs Aren’t Liberating - Reem Ibrahim, FOUNDATION FOR ECONOMIC EDUCATION

"Tariffs are irrational both morally and practically.
    "Morally, tariffs are rights violations - they restrain or prohibit individuals from trading freely and voluntarily in their own self-interest with whomever - no matter where they reside geographically. ...
    "Practically, tariffs punish the individuals in the country which implements them. Trump even acknowledges the pain. But he mystically thinks this pain will be good and lead us to prosperity.
    "Tariffs raise prices, cause shortages, and decrease productivity. They destroy wealth, businesses, income, and jobs. This is well known in theory and practice. See the Smoot-Hawley Act and its role in making the Great Depression even worse.
    "Trump’s foreign policy is morally and practically irrational.
    "What is the moral and practical foreign policy solution?
    "Free trade."

          ~ Andy Clarkson

"The essence of capitalism's foreign policy is free trade—i.e., the abolition of trade barriers, of protective tariffs, of special privileges—the opening of the world's trade routes to free international exchange and competition among the private citizens of all countries dealing directly with one another."

The Roots of War - Ayn Rand, ARI CAMPUS

"Fundamental to the argument for high tariffs has been the argument that trade deficits reflect America being "exploited" or "taken advantage of." In this article of mine on, "Why Trade Deficits Don't Matter -- Unless Caused by Government," I explain the misguided economic reasoning behind this claim, and why the far better policy is free trade."
Trade Deficits Don’t Matter – Unless Caused by Government - Richard Ebeling, FUTURE OF FREEEDOM FOUNDATION

"Donald Trump is fond of saying that trade wars are easy to win. Among the litany of patently false Trumpisms, this may well prove one of the most disastrous. ...
    "Protective tariffs risk triggering a cycle of escalation that ends well for no one."

No One Wins a Trade War - William Bernstein, THE ATLANTIC

"America can’t be outcompeted because America does not produce or trade anything.
     "Nations do not compete with nations. Individual firms compete with individual firms abroad. Ford competes with Toyota. America does not compete with Japan. Nations are trading partners, not competitors."

Why America can't be outcompeted - Harry Binswanger, HARRY'S SUBSTACK

"“We are seeing a combination of true-believing mercantilism, shocking ignorance about how the global economy works, and shocking incompetence in the planning and execution of economic policy,” says Michael Strain."
Trump's aggressive push to roll back globalisation -FINANCIAL TIMES (paywall0

"Like the post-1945 British Labour governments, he wants to shelter domestic manufacturing and the working class behind tariffs while reducing overseas commitments. But the net result will be both economically damaging and geopolitically weakening. Americans will come to miss globalism and policing the world. They will belatedly realise that there is no portal through which the United States can return to the 1950s, much less the 1900s. And the principal beneficiary of Project Minecraft will not be Russia, but China. Call it Project Manchuria. ... 

"The president stands as much chance of reindustrialising the U.S. as you do of getting your frozen laptop to work by smashing the motherboard with a Minecraft hammer."

Trump’s Tariffs and the End of American Empire - Niall Ferguson, THE FREE PRESS

"So think of it as a world wide Brexit like the U.S. leaving the global economy.
    "A trade lawyer at a global law firm here in London told me their clients see Trump’s tariffs as “worse than Brexit” as they’re dealing with rapidly changing trade rules on a massive scale. It’s not just the tariffs that Trump has imposed, but the retaliation it will provoke."

‘How Ugly Is This Going to Be?’ - Graham Lanktree, POLITICO

"You will go to work in a hot, noisy, dirty factory for low wages. And you will like it. 

The quality of life your grandfather had is more than good enough for you!"

"It sounds so sensible: why not use protection and industrial policy to preserve manufacturing capacity “just in case” of, say, a war or a pandemic? And, to be sure, this is a better argument for some limited government intervention on trade and investment flows than wanting to tax imported bananas or revive manufacturing.
    "But even then it’s not the slam dunk some people imagine. Below is my chapter on this issue from Economics In One Virus, published in 2021. It’s just as true and relevant today."

Flaws in the "Just In Case," Self-Sufficiency Case for Protectionism - Ryan Bourne, WAR ON PRICES

"The populist story of the death of U.S. manufacturing is nonsense. Mr. Vance and his cohort maintain that increased free trade with countries such as China in 2000 or Mexico in 1994 killed American jobs. It’s true that the number of manufacturing jobs is lower than it was in 1970. But that’s because we can make so much more with fewer people. Blame technology, not trade.
    "Real hourly output per manufacturing employee has been on an upward trend since 1959. Real U.S. manufacturing value-added—the sector’s contribution to gross domestic product—reached its highest recorded level in 2022. Manufacturing output was close to its all-time high in 2022, and the U.S. remained the global leader in manufacturing value-added per worker.
    "Steel is one example. In 1980, one steelworker could produce 0.083 tons of steel in one hour. By 2018, one steelworker could produce 1.67 tons in an hour. This is a good thing. Wage and income data in the U.S. show the rising tide is lifting all boats—especially the smallest.
    "Americans don’t want their children to have to work punishing jobs in a steel mill, and it’s evident they don’t have to. Manufacturing jobs, as a share of total employment, have been on a downward trend since 1943—falling from 39% to under 25% by the end of 1970 and hitting 20% in 1980. This decline started long before Ronald Reagan ran for office, before China received Most Favored Nation status for outsourcing manufacturing, before Bill Clinton signed the North American Free Trade Agreement and before the World Trade Organization was created. The trends even started five years before the U.S. joined the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade."
Free Trade Didn’t Kill the Middle Class - Norbert J. Michel, WALL STREET JOURNAL

“The philosophy of protectionism is a philosophy of war.”
          ~ Ludwig von Mises

"“When it comes to steel, it’s fantastic for our industry,” said Jack Maskil [president of the United Steelworkers Local 2227 in Pittsburgh’s Mon Valley], “but what about everything else?” ...

    "On the one hand, they are thrilled that their industry will be a key beneficiary of the 25 percent tariff imposed on steel imports to the U.S. ...
    "But while the steelworkers are also hoping that tariffs will bring about a revival of manufacturing jobs, they also worry about their effect on the economy, and on their own purchasing power."

What Do American Steelworkers Think About Trump’s Tariffs? - Ethan Dodd, THE FREE PRESS

"President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs risk domino effect across the globe as Chinese goods look for new markets."

The Rest of the World Is Bracing for a Flood of Cheap Chinese Goods - WALL STREET JOURNAL

"The proponents of protectionism say, “Free trade is fine in theory but it must be reciprocal. We cannot open our markets to foreign products if foreigners close their markets to us.” China, they argue, to use their favorite whipping boy, “keeps her vast internal market for the private domain of Chinese industry but then pushes her products into the U.S. market and complains when we try to prevent this unfair tactic.”
    "The argument sounds reasonable. It is, in fact, utter nonsense. Exports are the cost of trade, imports the return from trade, not the other way around."

In 1970, Milton Friedman Advocating Moving Unilaterally Toward Free Trade Rather Than Retaliating. We Still Haven’t Learned That Simple Lesson -Mark Perry, AEI

"This idea that Donald Trump is just playing hardball to negotiate tariff rates down on US exports is absolutely ridiculous. The % of tariffs applied to US-produced goods has declined consistently since WW2 and was nearly nothing...
    "UNTIL! Donald's first term, and now his second.
    "And yet I keep seeing so many MAGA supporters saying: 'We're already seeing countries backing down from their tariffs!'
    "You're literally winning a battle and losing the war at the same time ..."

~  Landon Walsh

"Then there’s Trump’s fascination with tariffs. The damage Trump has caused Ukraine and Nato pales by comparison to what his tariffs will do to America’s economy and the entire international economic system. If Trump had acted on April 1 instead of 2, he could quickly have said it was all an April Fool’s Day joke, thereby saving the global economy trillions of dollars of damage when markets started heading south. Unfortunately however, Trump is totally serious, a fact evident long before “Liberation Day.”
    "Here too, “experts” and anxious businesspeople steadfastly ignored Trump labelling “tariff” the dictionary’s most beautiful word. Tariffs, they said, will be targeted, carefully calibrated, and he’ll do deals quickly. It’s all a bargaining tactic, Treasury Secretary Bessent said in October, 2024: “escalate to de-escalate”. Even as global stock markets drop like rocks, experts are still rationalising what his “strategy” is.
    "Wrong again. Trump is more likely to win the Nobel Prize for literature than for peace."

I worked for Donald Trump. This is the key to understanding him: It’s not about America, and there’s no connection to the real world - John Bolton, TELEGRAPH (UK)

"Reminder: This policy was spearheaded and implemented by a man who thinks nobody says the word “groceries” these days because “it’s an old-fashioned word” and he somehow brought it back into the limelight.
    "Donald Trump is a motherfucking moron. Those who knew this and voted for him anyway because he gave them explicit license to be assholes deserve every last bit of pain his policies will cause them."

          ~ Stephen T. Stone

"In times of upheaval, those closest to power often find ways to turn disruption into wealth. Trump’s erratic tariff wars, billed as economic nationalism, upended markets, collapsed sectors, and triggered retaliatory shocks. But while farmers went bankrupt and consumers paid more, the market opened space for those with foresight—or insider access—to buy low and consolidate.
    "Geographer David Harvey calls this accumulation by dispossession: crisis used not to correct the system, but to extract from it. Devalue public assets. Destabilise protections. Create just enough chaos to buy cheap what others are forced to abandon. It’s not just policy failure—it’s extraction dressed as populism.
    "The con isn’t just psychological. It’s material. It’s not just about being lied to—it’s about being looted.
    "And that’s what makes this moment different—and more dangerous. The scam isn’t happening outside the system. It’s running through it."

The Confidence Game: How Trump’s Con Threatens More Than the Truth - James Greenberg, JAMES'S SUBSTACK

"The latest rumor, when I started drafting this column, was that President Trump will suspend the tariffs for a 90-day period, with the exception of those on China. Markets started going back up again.
    "But “the very latest information” doesn’t stay current for long these days. The new report—but don’t count on it—is that the 90-day pause is not real after all. That revision came out before this draft was finished. And markets again whipsawed.
    "The Trump administration has created a new monster—one of unpredictability and erratic behavior. We simply cannot predict with any degree of accuracy what will happen next. By the time you are reading this article, there will probably be some newer report about the tariffs or threat of tariffs, and then another report after that.
    "Even if the White House winds up instituting a pause on the proposed tariffs—or ultimately adopts much better economic policies—this seesawing may plunge the American and perhaps also the global economy into recession."

A Contagion of Uncertainty - Tyler Cowen, THE FREE PRESS

[WATCH] Singapore must be clear-eyed about dangers ahead: Singapore's Prime Minister Wong on implications of US tariffs:

"Donald Trump has demonstrated his profound misunderstanding of the basic economic principles of international trade for several years now, and perhaps reached a pinnacle when he told the New York Daily News in an interview last August that “we’re getting hosed by the Chinese — and that we’ve done it with our eyes wide shut.” ...
    "[Trump adviser] Peter Navarro, in his Wall Street Journal opinion piece earlier this week (see related post here) demonstrated his fundamental misunderstanding of international trade when he opened his op-ed with the following question: “Do trade deficits matter?” Just to ask the question is to admit one’s ignorance of trade theory, which has been pretty settled on this topic since Adam Smith taught us in 1776 that “Nothing…can be more absurd than this whole doctrine of the balance of trade. ..."

Trade Deficits Don’t Matter; Understanding Deficits Do: Protectionists' idea of a trade balance is completely backward -Mark Perry, FOUNDATION FOR ECONOMIC EDUCATION

Tariffs are a suicide bomb":

Trump's team said they based their "reciprocal tariff" calculation for each country based on the tariffs and impediments put on American imports by those countries. But no. It's even more irrational: "[Trump's chart] features an estimate of 'Tariffs Charged to the USA' by other countries that nobody could figure out, until a financial journalist realised it was just how much we export to that country, minus how much we import, divided by how much we import."

"Under a system of perfectly free commerce, each country naturally devotes its capital and labour to such employments as are most beneficial to each. This pursuit of individual advantage is admirably connected with the universal good of the whole. By stimulating industry, by regarding ingenuity, and by using most efficaciously the peculiar powers bestowed by nature, it distributes labour most effectively and most economically: while, by increasing the general mass of productions, it diffuses general benefit, and binds together by one common tie of interest and intercourse, the universal society of nations throughout the civilised world."
        ~ David Ricardo (1817)

"Why is today’s Trump so different from the Trump of his first term? .. ". Turns out, the answer is very simple" Back then he had people, and a Congress who would say "No." But now the yes men are in power.

What happened to Trump? Why has be become so pro-Russian? - Roman Sheremata, UKRAINE TODAY

Trump's tariffs policy came from his economic advisor Peter Navarro, who invented a fake expert in his books to justify it. "Peter Navarro liked to quote a guy named Ron Vara in his books. Those books are largely what led to Navarro becoming a top adviser to President Trump and helping to shape U.S. policy on China. Here’s the thing about Ron Vara, though: He doesn’t exist. ...

"Ron Vara is an anagram of Navarro."

Trump's China Muse Has an Imaginary Friend - Tom Bartlett, CHRONICLE OF HIGHER EDUCATION

 

Second-term Trump is who Trump always was. This is Trump without many adults in the room stopping him getting his way. This is Trump surronded by Yes Men in a cult. This is Trump. A freedom-hating, dictator-loving, trade-despising child who wants the power of a tryant. Someone who has no regard for facts and who will utter any lie he wishes - no matter how ridicolous it is. And his believers are expected to believe it. Under fear of discommunication from the cult.
This is what you asked for when you voted for Trump. This is what you got. I hope you are happy....

          ~ Dwayne Davies

"An often forgotten truth is that it is not just military warfare that can cause injury to innocent bystanders, the same inescapably happens in economic warfare initiated by governments, as well. But in the latter case the human “collateral damage” is a targetted victim. ...
    "Tariffs and counter-tariffs are tools of economic warfare that are said to be targeting the “aggressor” country. But the very nature of how tariffs and counter-tariffs work, results in the main targets being innocent bystanders in the countries concerned.
    "Once we disaggregate “nations” into their, respective, individual buyers and sellers, producers and consumers, we see that the most damage falls on the economic “non-combatants,” of whatever the original “dispute” may be about ..."

Trump’s Economic Warfare Targets Innocent Bystanders - Richard Ebeling, FUTURE OF FREEDOM FOUNDATION

"TikTok is a major bargaining chip in a grave geopolitical struggle. Given the data users have always sent to Beijing, it’s been a bargaining chip ever since it arrived on America’s digital shores. For Trump, though, it’s not exactly his chip to bargain with: Congress already determined the American course of action. The mystery is why nobody seems to mind Trump delaying its execution — or at least, why nobody is complaining publicly....

    "Trump’s motives here are not difficult to parse, and the bill in question is legitimately problematic. He’s popular on TikTok, and close to one of the company’s major investors. ...
    "As fallout continued from his tariff bombshell — including the legitimacy of his emergency authority to implement the new rates — barely anyone batted an eye at TikTok getting another dubious bailout."

Why Trump keeps saving TikTok - Emily Jashinsky, UNHERD

"Since my last essay on the crisis of democracy, the assaults on democratic checks and balances have escalated. Without agreement from Congress, Trump’s DOGE shut down the U.S. Agency for International Development with stunning speed. Although a federal court blocked further implementation, ruling that the action “likely violated the Constitution,” by then the agency had already been gutted and largely dismantled along with many other agenices. Then, in an alarming politicisation of the military high command, Trump fired the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Chief of Naval Operations, the Air Force Vice Chief of Staff, and the judge advocates general (the highest-ranking legal authorities) for the Army, Navy, and Air Force.
    "Pressing his claim to imperial power, Trump has moved to assert absolute control over all federal regulatory bodies, including the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Trade Commission, and the Federal Communications Commission. This not only hobbles their capacity to act independently in the public interest but opens the door to massive corruption. As DOGE seizes control of more and more of the government’s most sensitive and highly centralised stores of data, the conflicts of interest proliferate for its chief 'overseer,' Elon Musk, who over the years has received 'at least $38 billion in government contracts, loans, subsidies and tax credits.' And Just Security has documented an 'alarming' pattern of 'politicisation and weaponisation of the Department of Justice since Trump has retaken office.
    "The United States now faces the grave and imminent danger of its democracy decaying into a 'competitive authoritarianism'.”

How to Undo Trump’s Growing Dictatorship and the Damage it Is Inflicting - Larry Diamond, THE UNPOPULIST

"We have to realise that Trump is not joking about any of this. He’s not joking about invading Greenland, and he’s not joking about running for a third term. He’s as serious about all of this as he was about the tariffs. The evidence indicates that he will do it all, whatever he can get away with. ...
"While we prepare a mass movement—and Donald Trump crashing the economy with the world’s stupidest tariffs will help us a great deal—we need to fight everything. What that will specifically mean is that we have to fight a lot of losing battles. ...
"There are five reasons to fight early and often, no matter the odds of winning any one fight.
    1. It lays down a marker. ....
    2. It mobilises others to fight. ....
    3. It delays and exhausts the strongman. ...
    4. Sometimes you win. ...
    5. You find out what works and who fights. ...."

How to Fight Back - Robert Tracinski, TRACINSKI LETTER

John Bolton's Advice for Winston Peters

Winston Peters is in Washington DC today.

His best advice would be to not leave his hotel room at all.  To ring in sick. To bust out on room service.

His best advice is to not be noticed.

It's when you're noticed that Washington' Toddler-in Chief starts paying you attention. And that hasn't gone well for any (former) ally.

Nonetheless, as he already has meetings booked with the Trump Administration, Trump's former Secretary of State John Bolton has some advice for him that might be useful.

Perhaps one of you could pass it on.

I think people should understand that Trump is really an aberration in American political life.

Obviously he's president,  so it makes a a big difference. But he has no philosophy, he has no National Security Grand Strategy, he doesn't do policy as we conventionally understand that term. With him everything is transactional, episodic, ad hoc, annd seen through the prism of what benefits Donald Trump.

He has said many times he sees foreign policy as as being equivalent to the relations between the heads of two governments. So if he has a good relationship with Vladimir Putin he thinks the US has good relations with Russia.

Now, I'm not dismissing the role of personal relations in international affairs.  It obviously has a place. But that's not how Putin sees things. He has a pretty clear-eyed view of what he thinks Russia's national interest is, and he thinks he can manipulate Donald Trump. Trump thinks they're friends; Putin sees Trump as an easy mark. Trump just doesn't get it.

Now conversely, if Trump has bad relations with with a foreign head of state then he thinks the US has bad relations with the country. And unfortunately for Ukraine,  because of the famous 'perfect phone call' between Trump and Zelenskyy in the summer of 2019 that led to Trump's first impeachment, I think he he's never had a good relationship with Zelenskyy, notwithstanding Zelenskyy's extensive efforts to try and overcome it.

And I think that is part of what we've seen play out over the past several weeks.

So it is a fact that that Trump has basically reversed the US position, saying even before negotiations began there will not be a full restoration of sovereignty and territorial integrity no NATO membership, no NATO security guarantees, no US security guarantees — you know, these are all Kremlin positions.

The only unhappiness in Moscow these days is that they didn't ask for more. ...

I do think that the debacle in the Oval Office was a manifestation that Trump just doesn't like Zelenskyy, and now I think we're seeing an effort by Secretary of State Rubio and National Security adviser Waltz to try and bridge this over and get things back on an even keel.

Why Trump Misunderstands Putin & Ukraine
As I say, he thinks he's friends with Putin so your friends always tell you the truth, right. Just like he said in Helsinki that he
believed Putin and disagreed with American Intelligence on Russia's role in the 2016 election. Stunning to Americans that he would say that but you know do you trust your friends or do you trust the 'Deep State.' That's the Trump mentality.

I just think that it's important to to try and work with Trump on that understanding: that it's entirely personal. 

That he doesn't conceptualise foreign policy.

There's no strategy behind it.

His supporters say, you know, he plays this complex game of three-dimensional chess. No he doesn't. He plays regular chess one move at a time.

You know, there are theories that he was recruited by the Russians years ago. I don't see any evidence of it. I think his behaviour is explainable unfortunately in simpler ways. ... he operates on a day-to-day basis; there's no bigger picture; there's no hidden agenda. He just doesn't think that way.

When he ran the Trump Organisation in business, I was told he he would never set up a daily schedule. He'd come into the office every day and say, "Well what's going to happen today." Now, that may work in real estate in Manhattan; it doesn't work internationally.

But in many respects, Trump is still that same person.  ...

So in international Affairs other than his affinity for particular foreign leaders, he had no fixed points of reference.

And so, sure, he could adopt ideas, but changed them very shortly thereafter.

I said in my book that of the thousands of decisions that he made in his first term you you could take them all and put them together and they were like a big archipelago of dots out there. Now, you can try and connect the dots if you want to. Good luck. He can't connect the dots.

And, uh, understanding that I think obviously is important. 

Q: How should any of these foreign leaders, whether it's the Canadians, whether it's the Danish, how should should they be interpreting all that Trump is saying and doing, and what would you recommend they do in response?

Well I understand it's very frustrating to have to put up with this. All I can say is I saw it daily for 17 months. ...

But in Trump's world, he doesn't understand how to achieve the objective that he wants, and he may have some idea that it  would enhance his position in history if he could conquer Greenland [say], but it's it's not serious. 

It however shows an erratic, unsteady, and totally transactional presidency that has to unnerve our allies. And the best I can say is just grit your teeth. ...  so we don't do more damage than Trump himself is doing. ... 

From their perspective, they need to try and find ways to work with him. It's hard to predict who will be successful. 

It looks for example like British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has so far pretty good relationship with Trump. I wouldn't necessarily have predicted that, but but it looks like it's off to a good start. Prime Minister Meloni of Italy, I think, has a good relationship. So does Victor Orban of Hungary — that's not a pattern we'd like to see repeated. But I think leaders are going to have to think about, uh, how to flatter Trump.

I mean I'm sorry to have to say that, but that's what gets to him.

So my recommendation [to Zelenskyy for example] would be to do what Shinzo Abe, the Prime Minister of Japan, did in the first term. Nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize — and do it quickly before somebody else thinks of it. 

"Is there any actual US policy to get Russia to accept a ceasefire? Or is the US is an ally of Russian imperialism?"

"Ukraine has proposed a ceasefire without conditions. Russia will almost certainly reject this and try to dictate to [US Special Envoy Steve] Witkoff that the US help Russia achieve colonial control of Ukraine, something that Russia could never achieve on its own.
    "Then we see if there is any actual US policy to get Russia to do what Ukraine has done, to accept a ceasefire, or if the US is an ally of Russian imperialism and this whole process has just been a cover story for American submission to Russian wishes. If Witkoff comes back from Russia endorsing Russian demands regarding Ukrainian sovereignty we have our answer.
    "Russia has no more right to dictate anything that happens inside Ukraine than Ukraine has to dictate what happens inside Russia. And the 'root causes' of this war are all inside Russia, as the Russians are reminding us."

~ Timothy Snyder

"Europe is at a critical turning point in its history."

“President, Mr. Prime Minister, Ladies and Gentlemen Ministers, My dear colleagues,

"Europe is at a critical turning point in its history. The American shield is crumbling, Ukraine risks being abandoned, Russia strengthened. Washington has become the court of Nero ...

"This is a tragedy for the free world, but it is first and foremost a tragedy for the United States. Trump’s message is that there is no point in being his ally since he will not defend you, he will impose more customs duties on you than on his enemies and will threaten to seize your territories while supporting the dictatorships that invade you.

"The king of the deal is showing what the art of the deal is all about. He thinks he will intimidate China by lying down before Putin—but Xi Jinping, faced with such a shipwreck, is probably accelerating preparations for the invasion of Taiwan.

"Never in history has a President of the United States capitulated to the enemy. Never has anyone supported an aggressor against an ally. Never has anyone trampled on the American Constitution, issued so many illegal decrees, dismissed judges who could have prevented him from doing so, dismissed the military general staff in one fell swoop, weakened all checks and balances, and taken control of social media. 

"This is not an illiberal drift, it is the beginning of the confiscation of democracy. Let us remember that it took only one month, three weeks and two days to bring down the Weimar Republic and its Constitution. 

"I have faith in the strength of American democracy, and the country is already protesting. But in one month, Trump has done more harm to America than in four years of his last presidency. We were at war with a dictator, now we are fighting a dictator backed by a traitor. 

"Eight days ago, at the very moment that Trump was rubbing Macron’s back in the White House, the United States voted at the UN with Russia and North Korea against the Europeans demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops. 

"Two days later, in the Oval Office, the military-service shirker was giving war hero Zelensky lessons in morality and strategy before dismissing him like a groom, ordering him to submit or resign. 

"Tonight, he took another step into infamy by stopping the delivery of weapons that had been promised. What to do in the face of this betrayal? The answer is simple: face it. 

"And first of all, let’s not be mistaken. The defeat of Ukraine would be the defeat of Europe. The Baltic States, Georgia, Moldova are already on the list. Putin’s goal is to return to Yalta, where half the continent was ceded to Stalin. 

"The countries of the South are waiting for the outcome of the conflict to decide whether they should continue to respect Europe or whether they are now free to trample on it. 

"What Putin wants is the end of the order put in place by the United States and its allies 80 years ago, with its first principle being the prohibition of acquiring territory by force. 

"This idea is at the very source of the UN, where today Americans vote in favour of the aggressor and against the attacked, because the Trumpian vision coincides with that of Putin: a return to spheres of influence, the great powers dictating the fate of small countries.

Mine is Greenland, Panama and Canada; yours are Ukraine, the Baltics and Eastern Europe; his is Taiwan and the China Sea. 

"At the parties of the oligarchs of the Gulf of Mar-a-Lago, this is called 'diplomatic realism.' 

"So we are alone. But the talk that Putin cannot be resisted is false. Contrary to the Kremlin’s propaganda, Russia is in bad shape. In three years, the so-called second-largest army in the world has managed to grab only crumbs from a country three times less populated. 

"Interest rates at 25%, the collapse of foreign exchange and gold reserves, the demographic collapse show that it is on the brink of the abyss. The American helping hand to Putin is the biggest strategic mistake ever made in a war. 

"The shock is violent, but it has a virtue. Europeans are coming out of denial. They understood in one day in Munich that the survival of Ukraine and the future of Europe are in their hands ...  

"It is a Herculean task, but it is on its success or failure that the leaders of today’s democratic Europe will be judged in the history books. ...

 

"Europe will only become a military power again by becoming an industrial power again. ... But the real rearmament of Europe is its moral rearmament. 

"We must convince public opinion in the face of war weariness and fear, and especially in the face of Putin’s cronies, the extreme right and the extreme left. 

"They argued again yesterday in the National Assembly ...  They say they want peace. What neither they nor Trump say is that their peace is capitulation, the peace of defeat, the replacement of de Gaulle Zelensky by a Ukrainian Pétain at the beck and call of Putin. ...

"Is this the end of the Atlantic Alliance? The risk is great. But in the last few days, the public humiliation of Zelensky and all the crazy decisions taken in the last month have finally made the Americans react. 

"Polls are falling. Republican lawmakers are being greeted by hostile crowds in their constituencies. Even Fox News is becoming critical. 

"The Trumpists are no longer in their majesty. They control the executive, the Parliament, the Supreme Court and social networks. 

"But in American history, the freedom fighters have always prevailed. They are beginning to raise their heads. 

"The fate of Ukraine is being played out in the trenches, but it also depends on those in the United States who want to defend democracy, and here on our ability to unite Europeans, to find the means for their common defense, and to make Europe the power that it once was in history and that it hesitates to become again. 

"Our parents defeated fascism and communism at great cost. 

"The task of our generation is to defeat the totalitarianisms of the 21st century. 

"Long live free Ukraine, long live democratic Europe.”

-Claude Malhuret speaking to the French Senate Tuesday March 4 2025.

 

There is no 'leader of the free world' anymore.

"There's no leader of the free world anymore. ...

"[T]he Trump Administration's ... stupid trade war isn't about leverage to get other economies to open up; it is old fashioned autarky* ... the economics of hardened Marxists and moronic economic nationalists ...

"[I]t is however the moral depravity of the line on Ukraine which deserves the most opprobrium.

"There is no morality in surrendering to an aggressor all that it has [grabbed] so that you have 'peace' while the aggressor rebuilds...  and at the same time your erstwhile ally has blackmailed you into signing a predatory deal to hand over resources [without even] vague promises of security. ...

"[T]o be even-handed between Russia and Ukraine is a complete moral inversion. [Trump] has been excoriating about Zelenskyy, but said nothing negative at all about Putin or the behaviour of Russia. ...  He has only demanded that Ukraine stop....

"Of course everyone wants the war to end. It could end tomorrow if Putin just decided to end it and withdraw. But he's a psychopathic kleptocrat who feeds young Russian men (from poor backgrounds) and North Korean men to their deaths. ...

"If the war does ends soon on [Trump's terms, with a capitulation to Russia granting it time to rearm and come again] then it will only prolong the inevitable. Russia can spend a few years rearming, and use its renewed economic potential after sanctions are lifted by the US, to steal military capability and be ready for another attack. ... 

"[Contemplate this:] If the territorial integrity of sovereign states doesn't matter in Ukraine, then maybe it doesn't matter anywhere that the Trump Administration doesn't care about, and that includes any country—in Europe, Asia, in the Indo-Pacific ...

"[T]he cost ... of letting it be known that the US is isolationist and won't act to protect any nation states from attack ... is going to be much higher than the tens of billions taken to bolster Ukraine. 

"Even Marine Le Pen is critical of Trump on Ukraine, because by and large, European countries want to ensure defence against the predatory criminal gangster state to the east that treats its neighbours with impunity.

"Perhaps a deal will be struck,... [Perhaps] Europe will do all it can to support Ukraine. Regardless, it is now a time for small countries everywhere to acknowledge that it's all on now — that the US doesn't care if you are attacked, that you have to fend for yourselves with any other allies.

"There is no 'leader of the free world' anymore."

~ Liberty Scott from his post 'There's no leader of the free world anymore'

Why America (and New Zealand) Should Be on Ukraine's Side and Not Putin's Side, explained in 8 minutes.

 

"...a thin-skinned, malicious toddler with poor impulse control."

 

"So even if you think Zelenskyy made a fatal error by actually telling the truth about the predicament his nation finds itself in, even if you think the mineral deal—with no security guarantees—is brilliant, the fact remains that the administration mishandled the situation. Remember, Zelenskyy is a politician too. And for the better part of an hour he was asked to sit there as Trump painted a false moral equivalence between Russia and Ukraine and was dismissive of Ukraine’s plight and the history that led to this. If you actually want a deal, maybe don’t do that in public? I mean, the Ukrainians are watching too.
    "In response to Zelensky’s bait-taking, [commentator Rich] Lowry says that Zelensky 'made an excellent point, but he wasn’t there to be right or to win an argument.' Fair enough. But this is yet another situation where others are to blame for not fully adjusting to the fact that Trump is a thin-skinned, malicious toddler with poor impulse control. It’s always someone else’s fault for not enabling or humouring him sufficiently.
    "You know who knows Trump is easily baited into childish outbursts? J.D. Vance. And either out of cynicism or petulant incompetence, he acted on that. ...

"This disaster never should have been possible in the first place. [For starters, this was supposed to be a photo op. Lots of arguments happen behind closed doors between world leaders. They were supposed to head into a meeting to hammer out the details on this mineral deal. Instead, Trump took 40 minutes of questions, some from MAGA loyal 'journalists' who asked him stuff like how he mustered so much 'moral courage' and what not. But then,] Trump’s position is that we should make a profit over Ukraine’s misfortune. That’s why he insists America should get its money back 'plus.' As in we should get back the '350 billion' we gave to Ukraine (a wildly inflated and inaccurate numberTrump cannot be talked out of using) plus a little extra for our troubles.
    "That’s grotesque.
    "Even as a rhetorical negotiating ploy, it’s grotesque. In his inaugural address, John F. Kennedy Jr. said, 'Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty.' That might have been overly grandiose, but it was directionally right for the leader of the free world to draw those lines. Trump’s—and most emphatically Vance’s—position is 'We might help you out, we might not. It all depends on our cut'."

~ Jonah Goldberg from his op-ed 'Dishonor and Incompetence in the Oval Office'

PS: From Paul Wells: 

"Donald Trump’s empty heart makes him crave a breathtaking amount of sucking up, all the time.
    "The big thing that everyone noticed when the sucking up became too insufficient, was that Trump and JD Vance jumped Volodomyr Zelensky in the Oval Office because, Vance said, Zelensky is ungrateful for American support. On that score, here is video of Zelensky thanking America again and again and again, for years: