Scribd
Upload
1K views6 pages

Classwork - Forecast

The document outlines three exercises for forecasting methods and calculations: 1. Calculate forecasts using simple 3-month moving average, weighted 3-month moving average, single exponential smoothing, and trend-adjusted exponential smoothing for a dataset with historical demand data. 2. Use simple linear regression analysis to calculate the linear trend equation and forecast for July based on historical demand data from January to June. 3. Develop seasonal relatives for a gift shop's sales transactions on Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays using data over 6 weeks and use a naive trend approach to predict next week's sales.

Uploaded by

nafnafj
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
1K views6 pages

Classwork - Forecast

The document outlines three exercises for forecasting methods and calculations: 1. Calculate forecasts using simple 3-month moving average, weighted 3-month moving average, single exponential smoothing, and trend-adjusted exponential smoothing for a dataset with historical demand data. 2. Use simple linear regression analysis to calculate the linear trend equation and forecast for July based on historical demand data from January to June. 3. Develop seasonal relatives for a gift shop's sales transactions on Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays using data over 6 weeks and use a naive trend approach to predict next week's sales.

Uploaded by

nafnafj
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Classwork

Post Graduate Diploma in Management ICM

Exercise 1
Your manager is trying to determine which forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize.
Month 1 2 3 4 Actual Demand 62 65 67 68 Month 7 8 9 10 Actual Demand 76 78 78 80

5
6

71
73

11
12

84
85

Exercise 1
Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4-12. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average using weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20 for period 4-12. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2-12 using an initial forecast (F1) of 61 and an of 0.30. Calculate the Trend-Adjusted Exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2-12 using an initial trend Forecast (T1)of 1.8, an initial exponential smoothing forecast (F1) of 60, an of 0.30 and a of 0.30.

Exercise 2
Historical Demand for a product is Demand

January
February March April May

12
11 15 12 16

June

15

Using simple linear regression analysis, calculate the linear trend equation for the preceding demand data. Calculate the forecast for July

Exercise 3
A gift shop in a tourist centre is open on weekends (Fridays, Saturdays, and Sunday). The owner manager hopes to improve scheduling of part-time employees by determining seasonal relatives for each of these days. Data on recent activity at the store (Sales transactions per day) have been tabulated and are shown in the table below.
Week

1
Friday Saturday Sunday 149 250 166

2 154
255 162

3 152
260 171

4 150
268 173

5 159
273 176

6 163
276 183

Exercise
Develop a seasonal relative for the shop Use a naive trend approach to predict sales transactions for the following week.

You might also like