Canada’s Economic and Labour Market Challenges
Canada’s Economic and Labour Market Challenges
Canadas Competitive Landscape
Labour Market Challenges
Pedro Antunes
Director, National and Provincial Forecasting, The Conference Board of Canada
Canadian Economics Association, 47th Annual Conference,
May 31, 2013 Montreal
www.conferenceboard.ca
Five Reasons for Canadas
Lackluster Performance
1. The Canadian Consumer is overstretched and rising interest rates
will eventually hurt consumers.
2. The external economy and capacity constraints in the energy sector
is limiting trade growth.
3. The business sector has been increasing private investment.
However, the recent pace wont be maintained.
4. Fiscal restraint will continue through the foreseeable future.
5. Labour markets will continue to tighten, limiting growth.
2
2
Canadas Employment Growth 2002 to 2012, level change
(000s)
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
Primany Sector
Manufacturing
Construction
3
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Health, Edu,
Public Admin
Business
Services
3
Unemployment Rate vs. Natural Rate
(percent, 1981-2016)
13.0
12.0
11.0
Unemployment Rate
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
Natural Rate
5.0
4
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada
4
Growth in Industrial Composite Average Weekly
Wage versus CPI
(per cent change)
5.0
Average Weekly Wages
5.0
CPI
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada
10
11
12
13f
14f
5
Youth employment rate (15 to 24 years of age)
(per cent)
60.0
58.0
56.0
54.0
52.0
50.0
6 The Conference Board du Canada; Statistics Canada
Sources:
6
Who Are the Unemployed?
0
10
12
14
Health occupations
Professional occupations
Management
Contractors in trades
secretarial and admin
education & government service
applied sciences
Teachers and professors
Clerical occupations
Other trades occupations
Occupations in recreation and sport
Retail salespersons
Sales
Machine operators in manufacturing
Transport and equipment operators
food and beverage service
Trades and equipment operators
Occupations unique to primary industry
Construction trades
Labourers inmanufacturing
Trades helpers
7
7
Aging work force: related business risks
An aging workforce is the biggest structural
challenge facing Canadian businesses
Skills and staffing shortages already evident in
Western Canada
Core business models will need to be restructured
And where will you find the workforce of
tomorrow?
8
8
Population distribution by age, 2012 and 2035
700,000
2030
2012
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
0
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100+
9
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
9
Labour Force Participation Rates by Age
(per cent, 2012)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
15-19
20-24
25-54
55-64
65+
10
Source:
Statistics Canada.
10
Labour Force Participation Rate
(per cent, 1976-2035)
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33
11
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
11
Labour Force Growth
(average annual compound growth, per cent)
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1981-90
1991-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-20
2021-30
2031-35
12
Sources:
The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
12
Real GDP per Capita
(average annual compound growth, per cent)
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
13
1981-90
1991-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-20
2021-30
2031-35
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
13
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