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Linear Regression - Introduction: Bernd SCHR Oder

The document discusses linear regression models. It explains that when measuring a deterministic relationship, randomness is introduced through measurement errors. A simple linear regression model is presented where the dependent variable Y is equal to coefficients β0 and β1 multiplied by the independent variable x, plus a random error term ε. An example is provided to illustrate the model, where a runner's mile time improves on average according to the relationship T = 420 - 4d over 30 days of training, but actual measured times vary randomly from this average by a standard deviation of 20 seconds.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
64 views29 pages

Linear Regression - Introduction: Bernd SCHR Oder

The document discusses linear regression models. It explains that when measuring a deterministic relationship, randomness is introduced through measurement errors. A simple linear regression model is presented where the dependent variable Y is equal to coefficients β0 and β1 multiplied by the independent variable x, plus a random error term ε. An example is provided to illustrate the model, where a runner's mile time improves on average according to the relationship T = 420 - 4d over 30 days of training, but actual measured times vary randomly from this average by a standard deviation of 20 seconds.

Uploaded by

3rlang
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Functions vs.

Data

Linear Regression

Linear Regression - Introduction


Bernd Schr oder

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Random Inuences When Evaluating Functions?

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Random Inuences When Evaluating Functions?


1. A function express a deterministic relation between an input variable x and an output variable y = f (x).

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Random Inuences When Evaluating Functions?


1. A function express a deterministic relation between an input variable x and an output variable y = f (x). 2. But if the input and/or output values of a function are measurements, then randomness creeps in.

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Random Inuences When Evaluating Functions?


1. A function express a deterministic relation between an input variable x and an output variable y = f (x). 2. But if the input and/or output values of a function are measurements, then randomness creeps in. 3. And at the rst stage of a scientic investigation, we do not know if there is a functional relationship between input and output or not.

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Random Inuences When Evaluating Functions?


1. A function express a deterministic relation between an input variable x and an output variable y = f (x). 2. But if the input and/or output values of a function are measurements, then randomness creeps in. 3. And at the rst stage of a scientic investigation, we do not know if there is a functional relationship between input and output or not. 4. If two variables are not deterministically related, then one does not inuence the other.

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Random Inuences When Evaluating Functions?


1. A function express a deterministic relation between an input variable x and an output variable y = f (x). 2. But if the input and/or output values of a function are measurements, then randomness creeps in. 3. And at the rst stage of a scientic investigation, we do not know if there is a functional relationship between input and output or not. 4. If two variables are not deterministically related, then one does not inuence the other. Paired measurements can look random.

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Random Inuences When Evaluating Functions?


1. A function express a deterministic relation between an input variable x and an output variable y = f (x). 2. But if the input and/or output values of a function are measurements, then randomness creeps in. 3. And at the rst stage of a scientic investigation, we do not know if there is a functional relationship between input and output or not. 4. If two variables are not deterministically related, then one does not inuence the other. Paired measurements can look random. 5. But there could be an underlying deterministic relation (a function) that is inuenced by measurement errors.
logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Random Inuences When Evaluating Functions?


1. A function express a deterministic relation between an input variable x and an output variable y = f (x). 2. But if the input and/or output values of a function are measurements, then randomness creeps in. 3. And at the rst stage of a scientic investigation, we do not know if there is a functional relationship between input and output or not. 4. If two variables are not deterministically related, then one does not inuence the other. Paired measurements can look random. 5. But there could be an underlying deterministic relation (a function) that is inuenced by measurement errors. (Possibly most famous example: Keplers Laws.)
Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

When Measuring a Deterministic Relationship, Randomness Creeps In

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

When Measuring a Deterministic Relationship, Randomness Creeps In

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

When Measuring a Deterministic Relationship, Randomness Creeps In

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Simple Linear Regression Model

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Simple Linear Regression Model


1. Assumption: For any xed value of the independent variable x, the dependent variable is Y = 0 + 1 x + .

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Simple Linear Regression Model


1. Assumption: For any xed value of the independent variable x, the dependent variable is Y = 0 + 1 x + . 2. is assumed to be a normal random variable with expected value 0 and standard deviation .

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Simple Linear Regression Model


1. Assumption: For any xed value of the independent variable x, the dependent variable is Y = 0 + 1 x + . 2. is assumed to be a normal random variable with expected value 0 and standard deviation . 3. Y x := E(Y |x ) is the expected value of Y when x = x .

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Simple Linear Regression Model


1. Assumption: For any xed value of the independent variable x, the dependent variable is Y = 0 + 1 x + . 2. is assumed to be a normal random variable with expected value 0 and standard deviation . 3. Y x := E(Y |x ) is the expected value of Y when x = x . 2 4. Y x = V (Y |x ) is the variance of Y when x = x .

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Simple Linear Regression Model


1. Assumption: For any xed value of the independent variable x, the dependent variable is Y = 0 + 1 x + . 2. is assumed to be a normal random variable with expected value 0 and standard deviation . 3. Y x := E(Y |x ) is the expected value of Y when x = x . 2 4. Y x = V (Y |x ) is the variance of Y when x = x . 5. Clearly Y x = 0 + 1 x

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Simple Linear Regression Model


1. Assumption: For any xed value of the independent variable x, the dependent variable is Y = 0 + 1 x + . 2. is assumed to be a normal random variable with expected value 0 and standard deviation . 3. Y x := E(Y |x ) is the expected value of Y when x = x . 2 4. Y x = V (Y |x ) is the variance of Y when x = x . 2 2 5. Clearly Y x = 0 + 1 x , Y x =

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Quick Made-up Example to Illustrate the Model

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Quick Made-up Example to Illustrate the Model


On average, for the rst 30 days of training, a certain cross country runners mile time in seconds depends on the number of days d of training via the relationship T = 420 4d.

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Quick Made-up Example to Illustrate the Model


On average, for the rst 30 days of training, a certain cross country runners mile time in seconds depends on the number of days d of training via the relationship T = 420 4d. The actual time measured on a given day is skewed off this average prediction by a random distortion with mean zero and standard deviation 20 s.

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Quick Made-up Example to Illustrate the Model


On average, for the rst 30 days of training, a certain cross country runners mile time in seconds depends on the number of days d of training via the relationship T = 420 4d. The actual time measured on a given day is skewed off this average prediction by a random distortion with mean zero and standard deviation 20 s. The deterministic relationship gives the expected value for any given day.

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Quick Made-up Example to Illustrate the Model


On average, for the rst 30 days of training, a certain cross country runners mile time in seconds depends on the number of days d of training via the relationship T = 420 4d. The actual time measured on a given day is skewed off this average prediction by a random distortion with mean zero and standard deviation 20 s. The deterministic relationship gives the expected value for any given day. But the actual measurement on a given day need not be equal to this expected value.

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Quick Made-up Example to Illustrate the Model


On average, for the rst 30 days of training, a certain cross country runners mile time in seconds depends on the number of days d of training via the relationship T = 420 4d. The actual time measured on a given day is skewed off this average prediction by a random distortion with mean zero and standard deviation 20 s. The deterministic relationship gives the expected value for any given day. But the actual measurement on a given day need not be equal to this expected value. Inuences that can be considered random without further information (diet, sleep, mood, etc.) also affect the days performance.
logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Idea for Linear Regression

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Idea for Linear Regression


In linear regression, we try to nd the (unknown) equation for quantities like T in the previous example from measured values over time.

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Idea for Linear Regression


In linear regression, we try to nd the (unknown) equation for quantities like T in the previous example from measured values over time. Note that if the relationship is not linear, linear regression will not be reliable.

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

Functions vs. Data

Linear Regression

Idea for Linear Regression


In linear regression, we try to nd the (unknown) equation for quantities like T in the previous example from measured values over time. Note that if the relationship is not linear, linear regression will not be reliable. For details, consider a course on regression analysis.

Bernd Schr oder Linear Regression - Introduction

logo1 Louisiana Tech University, College of Engineering and Science

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