BBR36803 Introduction to Environmental Science
Chapter 3:
Community and
Human Population
Chapter Outlines
Upon completion of this chapter, student should be able
to:Summarize historic factors that
contributed to human population
growth
Explain the process of
demographic transition
Explain the factors that affect
population changes
Evaluate the population trends
Introduction
1.0 Human population
Every second on average four or five children are born
somewhere on the earth. In that second, two other
people die
This means we are growing at a little less than 9000
per hour.
Human population
Overpopulation leads to; Resources depletion
Environmental degradation
These could threaten the ecological life-support
systems and lead to: Birth control
Reduce fertility rates
War
The best way the reduce the population are poverty
eradication, broad-based welfare system,
education and empower women, high-quality
health care, family planning etc
Other believe the population growth could contribute in
better world. (more people more idea, more geniuses,
larger workforce etc)
Human population
1.1Human population history
In the past, human have not been very numerous
compared to other species.
Since 1999, the world population passed 6 billion
making us the most numerous vertebrate species on
the planet
Human population began to
increase rapidly after 1600.
Many factors contributed to
this rapid growth such as
agriculture
development,
better sources of power,
better
health
care,
commerce
and
communication among the
nations.
Human population
Population doubling times
Rule of thumb to estimate the population double is 70
divide by the annual percentage growth.
How long will it take to double the population?
Example 1
Calculate the doubling time of population growing at the
following annual percentage growth rates; 0.1 %, 1.0
%, 1.3 % and 5%.
70
700 years
0.1
70
70 years
1.0
70
54 years
1.3
70
14 years
5.0
Human population forecast
Population Forecasting Method 1
Method-1:
Short-term estimates of population prediction using Method of
Arithmetic Growth Rate
Equations:
dP
Ka
dt
.(1)
Pt = P0 + Ka t
.(2)
Ka
P2 P1
t
.(3)
Where: Pt = project population t years after P0
P0 = present population
Ka = uniform growth-rate
t = period of projection
8
Human population forecast
Population Forecasting Method 2
Method-2:
Short-term estimates of population prediction using Method of
Geometric Growth
Equations:
lnPt ln PO K p t
. (1)
dP
Kp P
dt
. (2)
ln P2 ln P1
Kp
t
. (3)
Human population forecast
Population Forecasting Method 3
Method-3:
Short-term estimates of population prediction using Method of Declining
Growth Rate
Equations:
dP
K D Psat P
dt
. (1)
Pt PO )(Psat - PO )(1- e - KDt)
1 Psat
K D ln
t Psat
P2
. (2)
. (3)
P1
10
Example 2
Population of a city has been recorded in 1970 and 1985
as 100,000 and 110,000, respectively. Estimate the
population in year 1995 by the three methods. It
assumed that, the saturation population is 200,000
persons.
11
Example 2
Solution-1:
P1 = 100,000
P2 = 110,000
P2 P1 110,000 100,000
Ka
t
15
= 667
P1995 = 110,000 + 667(10) = 116,667
persons
12
Example 2
Solution-2:
P1 = 100,000
P2 = 110,000
ln P2 ln P1 ln110,000 ln100,000
Kp
t
15
=0.0064
ln P1995 = ln 110,000 + 0.0064 (10) = 11.67
P1995 = 117,216 persons
13
Example 2
Solution-3:
P1 = 100,000
P2 = 110,000
1 Psat P2
1 200,000 110,000
K D ln
ln
t Psat P1
15 200,000 100,000
= 0.007
P1995 = 110,000 + (200,000 110,000) (1 e(0.007)(10))
P1995 = 116,067 persons
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Human population
1.2 Limits to growth
Two famous views on human population growth made
by
I.
Thomas Malthusian (1798)
II. Karl Marx (18++)
Limits to growth
1.2.1 Malthusian
Excess
population
growth
Resource depletion
Pollution
Overcrowding
Unemployment
Starvation
Disease
Crime
Misery
War
Poverty
Human population increase at an exponential rate
while food production remain stable or slowly increase.
Inevitably outstrip food supply and eventually collapse
into starvation, crime and misery.
Against giving an aid to poor people because make
people lazier and increase fertility
Limits to growth
1.2.2 Karl Marx
Excess
population
growth
Resource depletion
Pollution
Overcrowding
Unemployment
Starvation
Disease
Crime
Misery
Poverty
Exploitation
Oppression
Population growth is a sympton rather than a root
cause of these problems. He mentioned about
exploitation and oppression.
The way to slow population growth through social
justice
War
Limits to growth
1.3 Present population growth
19th century, the world, technology and society much
differ from 17th and 18th century.
According to David Pimentel in his statement By 2100
if the current trends continue, twelve billion miserable
human will suffer a difficult life on earth. He urged, the
optimum population is around 2 billion. Malthusian
followers
Eliminate oppression and poverty through technology
development and social justice will solve population
problems. The fair distribution of wealth and resources
could reduce the population problem Marx followers
There is enough for everyones need, but not enough for anyone greed
Mohandas Gandhi
Limits to growth
1.3 Present population growth
The burst of population was stimulated by scientific
and industrial revolution since 200 years ago.
Progress in agriculture productivity, engineering,
information
technology,
commerce,
medicine,
sanitation, and other achievements of modern life
have made it possible to more people.
Larger population can have benefits as well as
disadvantages.
More people mean more larger markets, more workers
and more intelligence. These could eliminate the
problems.
Human Demography
2.0 Human Demography
Demography
derived
from
Greek
words
demos (people) and
graphein (to measure)
encompasses
vital
statistics about people
such as births, deaths,
where they live, as well
as total population size.
On October 12, 1999,
the
United
Nation
officially declared that
the human population
has reached 6 billion.
Human Demography
We live in TWO different demography worlds.
1. Poor, young and growing rapidly (Africa, Asia and
Latin America)
2. Rich, old and shrinking (North America, Western
Europe, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand)
The less developed regions tend to experiencing
amazing growth rates and expected to reach
extraordinary population size
Human Demography
Demography derived from Greek words demos
(people) and graphein (to measure) encompasses vital
statistics about people such as births, deaths, where
they live, as well as total population size.
On October 12, 1999, the United Nation officially
declared that the human population has reached 6
billion.
Human Demography
2.1 Fertility and Birth Rates
Fecundity is the physical ability to reproduce while
fertility describe the actual production offspring.
Total fertility rate is the number of children born to an
average woman during her entire life.
Zero population growth occurs when births plus
immigration in a population just equal death plus
immigration. Infant mortality rates are high.
Fertility rates have declined dramatically in every
regions of the world except Africa over the past 50
years.
Southeast Asia rate have fallen by more than half.
Human Demography
2.2 Mortality and Death Rates
Crude death rate are expressed in terms of the
number of deaths per thousand persons in any given
year.
The number of death in population sensitive to the
population structure.
Rapidly growing, developing country have lower crude
death rate than do the more-developed, slowly
growing countries
More youth and fewer elderly
Declining mortality, not rising fertility is the primary
cause of the most population growth in the past 300
years.
Human Demography
2.3 Living Longer
Life span is the oldest age to which a species is
known to survive
Life expectancy is the average age that a newborn
infant can expect to attain in any given society or
average age at death.
Longer lives were due primarily to better nutrition,
improved sanitation, clean water, and education rather
than to miracle drugs or high-tech medicine.
Human Demography
2.3 Living Longer
Family Planning
3.0 Family Planning and Fertility Control
Family planning allows couples to determine the
number and spacing of their children.
Desire to have smaller families become more
common, and birth control becomes an essential part
of family planning.
Birth control are the method used to reduce births,
including celibacy, delayed marriage, contraception,
methods that prevent embryo implantation and
induced abortions.
Two methods that can be used for birth control:i.
Traditional fertility control
ii.
Modern birth control
Family Planning
3.1 Traditional Family Planning
Every culture and historic period have used a variety
of techniques to control population size.
Our ancestor had stable population not because they
killed each other or staved to death regularly but
because they controlled fertility.
For instance, San women breast feed children for 3 or
4 years. When calories are limited, lactation depletes
body fat store and suppresses ovulation.
Taboos against intercourse while breast-feeding is an
effective way of spacing children.
Other ancient techniques to control population size
include celibacy, folk medicines, abortion, and
infanticide. These techniques are unpleasant and
morally unacceptable.
Family Planning
3.2 Current Family Planning
Modern medicine gives us more options for controlling
fertility than our ancestor..
The major categories of birth control technique
include;1) Avoidance of intercourse during fertility period
2) Mechanical barrier that prevent contact between
sperm and egg
3) Surgical method that prevent release of sperm of
egg
4) Chemical that prevent maturation of sperm or
release of egg
5) Prevent embryo implantation using estrogen etc
6) Physical barrier to implantation
7) Abortion
Future of Human Population
4.0 The Future of Human Population
How many people will be in the world century from
now?
Demographer believe that world population will
stabilize sometime during the twenty-first century with
the total population around 8 to 10 billion depending
on the success of family planning programs.
Successful family planning require significant societal
changes such as:1. Improved social, education and economic status
2. Improved status of children
3. Social security and political stability
4. The knowledge, availability, and use of effective
and acceptable birth control.
Tips for TEST 1
Please learn about these topics,
Balance the chemical equation
Discuss about Ecological pyramid
What are the essential element needed for life
Birth control method
Human demography
