H.

Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Time Series Analysis

Henrik Madsen
[email protected]

Informatics and Mathematical Modelling

Technical University of Denmark
DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Outline of the lecture

Practical information
Introductory examples (See also Chapter 1)
A brief outline of the course
Chapter 2:
Multivariate random variables
The multivariate normal distribution
Linear projections
Example

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Introductory example – shares (COLO B 18m)

From www.cse.dk

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Consumption of District Heating (VEKS) – data

Heat Consumption (GJ/h)

2000
1200
800

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

1995 1996
10
Air Temperature (°C)

5
0
−5
−10

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

1995 1996

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Consumption of DH – simple model

2500
2000
Heat Consumption (GJ/h)

1500
1000

−15 −10 −5 0 5 10

Air Temperature (°C)

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Consumption of DH – model error

Model Error
Model Error (GJ/h)

400
0
−400

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

1995 1996

Model Error as it should be if the model were OK

Model Error (GJ/h)

400
0
−400

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

1995 1996

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

A brief outline of the course

General aspects of multivariate random variables
Prediction using the general linear model
Time series models
Some theory on linear systems
Time series models with external input

Some goals:
Characterization of time series / signals; correlation functions,
covariance functions, spectral distributions, stationarity,
ergodicity, linearity, . . .
Signal processing; filtering, sampling, smoothing
Modelling; with or without external input
Prediction / Control
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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Multivariate random variables

Joint and marginal densities
Conditional distributions
Expectations and moments
Moments of multivariate random variables
Conditional expectation
The multivariate normal distribution
Distributions derived from the normal distribution
Linear projections

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Multivariate random variables

Definition (n-dimensional random variable; random vector)
 
X1
 X2 
X= . 
 
 .. 
Xn

Joint distribution function:

F (x1 , · · · , xn ) = P{X1 ≤ x1 , · · · , Xn ≤ xn }

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Multivariate random variables

Probability density function (continuous case):

∂ n F (x1 , · · · , xn )
f (x1 , · · · , xn ) =
∂x1 · · · ∂xn
Z x1 Z xn
F (x1 , · · · , xn ) = ··· f (t1 , · · · , tn ) dt1 . . . dtn
−∞ −∞

Probability density function (discrete case):

f (x1 , · · · , xn ) = P{X1 = x1 , · · · , Xn = xn }

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

The Multivariate Normal Distribution

The joint p.d.f.
 
1 1
fX (x) = √ exp − (x − µ)T Σ−1 (x − µ)
(2π)n/2 det Σ 2

Σ must be positive semidefinite

Notation: X ∼ N(µ, Σ)
Standardized multivariate normal: X ∼ N(0, I)
N(µ, Σ) = µ + T N(0, I), where Σ = T T T
If X ∼ N(µ, Σ) and Y = a + BX then
Y ∼ N(a + Bµ, BΣB T )
More relations between distributions in Sec. 2.7

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Marginal density function

Sub-vector: (X1 , · · · , Xk )T (k < n)
Marginal density function:
Z ∞ Z ∞
fS (x1 , · · · , xk ) = ··· f (x1 , · · · , xn ) dxk+1 · · · dxn
−∞ −∞

Marginal histogram of 100000 samples

4
0.10

15
2 0.08

Percent of Total
0.06
10
x2

Density 0
0.04

−2
0.02
5

−4 0.00

0
−4 −2 0 2 4
x2
x1
−4 −2 0 2 4
x1
x1

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Conditional distributions

The conditional density 4

0.10

of Y given X = x is
defined as (fX (x) > 0): 2 0.08

fX,Y (x, y) 0
0.06

y
fY |X=x (y) =
fX (x) 0.04

−2
(joint density of (X, Y ) 0.02

divided by the marginal −4

density of X evaluated at 0.00

−4 −2 0 2 4
x)
x

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Independence
If knowledge of X does not give information about Y we get
fY |X=x (y) = fY (y)
This leads to the following definition of independence:

fX,Y (x, y) = fX (x)fY (y)

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Expectation
Let X be a univariate random variable with density fX (x). The
expectation of X is then defined as:
Z ∞
E[X] = xfX (x)dx (continuous case)
−∞

X
E[X] = xP (X = x) (discrete case)
all x

Calculation rule:

E[a + bX1 + cX2 ] = a + b E[X1 ] + c E[X2 ]

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Moments and variance

n’th moment: Z ∞
n
E[X ] = xn fX (x) dx
−∞

n’th central moment:

Z ∞
E[(X − E[X])n ] = (x − E[X])n fX (x) dx
−∞

The 2’nd central moment is called the variance:

V [X] = E[(X − E[X])2 ] = E[X 2 ] − (E[X])2

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Covariance
Covariance:

Cov[X1 , X2 ] = E[(X1 −E[X1 ])(X2 −E[X2 ])] = E[X1 X2 ]−E[X1 ]E[X2 ]

Variance and covariance:

V [X] = Cov[X, X]

Calculation rule:

Cov[aX1 + bX2 , cX3 + dX4 ] =

ac Cov[X1 , X3 ] + ad Cov[X1 , X4 ] + bc Cov[X2 , X3 ] + bd Cov[X2 , X4 ]

The calculation rule can be used for the variance also

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Expectation and Variance for Random Vectors

Expectation: E[X] = [E[X1 ] E[X2 ] . . . E[Xn ]]T
Variance-covariance (matrix):
ΣX = V [X] = E[(X − µ)(X − µ)T ] =
 
V [X1 ] Cov[X1 , X2 ] · · · Cov[X1 , Xn ]
 Cov[X2 , X1 ] V [X2 ] ··· Cov[X2 , Xn ]
 
 .. .. 
 . . 
Cov[Xn , X1 ] Cov[Xn , X2 ] · · · V [Xn ]

Correlation:
Cov[Xi , Xj ] σij
ρij = p =
V [Xi ]V [Xj ] σi σj

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Expectation and Variance for Random Vectors

The correlation matrix R = ρ is an arrangement of ρij in a
matrix
Covariance matrix between X (dim. p) and Y (dim. q ):
T
 
ΣXY = C[X, Y ] = E (X − µ)(Y − ν)
 
Cov[X1 , Y1 ] · · · Cov[X1 , Yq ]
= 
 .. .. 
. . 
Cov[Xp , Y1 ] · · · Cov[Xp , Yq ]

Calculation rules – see the book.

The special case of the variance C[X, X] = V [X] results in
V [AX] = AV [X]AT

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Conditional expectation
Z ∞
E[Y |X = x] = yfY |X=x (y) dy
−∞

E[Y |X] = E[Y ] if andY are independent

 
E[Y ] = E E[Y |X]
E[g(X)Y |X] = g(X)E[Y |X]
 
E[g(X)Y ] = E g(X)E[Y |X]
E[a|X] = a
E[g(X)|X] = g(X)
E[cX + dZ|Y ] = cE[X|Y ] + dE[Z|Y ]

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Variance separation
Definition of conditional variance and covariance:


T 
V [Y |X] = E Y − E[Y |X] Y − E[Y |X] |X


T 
C[Y , Z|X] = E Y − E[Y |X] Z − E[Z|X] |X

The variance separation theorem:

   
V [Y ] = E V [Y |X] + V E[Y |X]
   
C[Y , Z] = E C[Y , Z|X] + C E[Y |X], E[Z|X]

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Linear Projections
Consider two random vectors Y and X , then
       
Y µY Y ΣY Y ΣY X
E = and V =
X µX X ΣXY ΣXX

Consider the linear projection: E[Y |X] = a + BX

Then:

E[Y |X] = µY + ΣY X ΣXX −1 (X − µX )

V [Y − E[Y |X]] = ΣY Y − ΣY X ΣXX −1 ΣY X T
 
C Y − E[Y |X], X = 0
The linear projection above has minimal variance among all
linear projections.

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Air pollution in cities

Carstensen (1990) has used time series analysis to set up
models for N O and N O2 at Jagtvej in Copenhagen
Measurements of N O and N O2 available every third hour (00,
03, 06, 09, 12, . . . )
We have µN O2 = 48µg/m3 and µN O = 79µg/m3
In the model X1,t = N O2,t − µN O2 and X2,t = N Ot − µN O is
used

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Air pollution in cities – model and forecast

      
X1,t 0.9 −0.1 X1,t−1 ξ1,t
= +
X2,t 0.4 0.8 X2,t−1 ξ2,t

X t = ΦX t−1 + ξt

σ12
   
σ12 30 21
V [ξt ] = Σ = = (µg/m3 )2
σ21 σ22 21 23
Assume that t corresponds to 09:00 today and we have
measurements 64 µg/m3 N O2 and 93 µg/m3 N O
Forecast the concentrations at 12:00 (t + 1)

What is the variance-covariance of this forecast?

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H. Madsen, Time Series Analysis, Chapmann Hall

Air pollution in cities – linear projection

At 12:00 (t + 1) we now assume that N O2 is measured with
67 µg/m3 as the result, but N O cannot be measured due to
some trouble with the equipment.
Estimate the missing N O measurement.

What is the variance of the error of the estimation?

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