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Qualitative Risk Analysis مهم

This document outlines the steps for a qualitative risk analysis, including: 1) Defining probability and impact scales 2) Qualitatively evaluating risks and assigning probability and impact scores 3) Calculating risk scores or ranks using different methods like probability/impact matrices or risk priority scales The document provides examples of scales, scores, and a prioritized risk list as the output of the analysis.

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wskreb
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267 views7 pages

Qualitative Risk Analysis مهم

This document outlines the steps for a qualitative risk analysis, including: 1) Defining probability and impact scales 2) Qualitatively evaluating risks and assigning probability and impact scores 3) Calculating risk scores or ranks using different methods like probability/impact matrices or risk priority scales The document provides examples of scales, scores, and a prioritized risk list as the output of the analysis.

Uploaded by

wskreb
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
  • Planning Activities: Overview of planning activities related to risk management, including defining probability and impact scales.
  • Risk Analysis: Covers the risk analysis process, evaluation of risks and impacts using qualitative methods.
  • Risk Scores and Prioritization: Discusses the computation of risk scores and ranks along with the prioritization of identified risks.
  • Risk Priority Scales: Explains different risk priority scales and provides examples of using these scales in planning.

Example of Qualitative Risk Analysis (Click here for updates to the file) : www.officenan.

et
1) Planning Activities
1.1) Define Probability and Impact Scales
Values and Color Codes Vary from One Company to the other
and some times from one project to the other in the same company

To be Defined in Planning
Example of Probability Scale
Very High 90% Highly Likely to Occur
High 70% Very Likely to Occur
Medium 50% Likely to Occur
Low 30% Unlikely to Occur
Very Low 10% Highly unlikely to Occur

To be Defined in Planning
Example of Impact Scale
Very High 80% Major Impact
High 40% Significant Impact
Medium 20% Measurable Impact
Low 10% Minor Impact
Very Low 5% Insignificant Impact

1.2) Define How Risks are going to be ranked based on Probability and Impact
1.2.a) Probability and Impact Matrix , or
1.2.b) Risk Priority Scale , or
1.2.c) Risk Rating Matrix

Option A :Probability and Impact Matrix


PmBok 4th Edition

Option B : Risk Priority Scale 5 Levels Option B : Risk Priority Scale


To be Defined in Planning To be Defined in Planning
Example of Risk Priority Scale Example of Risk Priority
Score
Priority Color Score To Priority
From
Very High Black 81 100 High
High Red 56 80 Medium
Medium Yellow 36 55 Low
Low No Fill 21 35
Very Low Blue 0 20
Values and Color Codes Vary from One Company to the other

Option C: Risk Rating Matrix 5 Cells Option C : 3 Cells

Values and Color Codes Vary from One Company to the other

2) Risk Analysis
2.1) Risks and Impact Qualitatively Evaluation

Effect on
ID Risk Probability
Project
1 Risk # 01 Very High High
2 Risk # 02 Low Medium
3 Risk # 03 Very High Very High
4 Risk # 04 Medium Very Low
5 Risk # 05 Medium High
6 Risk # 06 Very Low Medium

2.2) Probability and Impact Scores are computed


Based on Probability and Impact Scales defined in Item (1.1)

Computed Computed
Based on Based on
Probability Impact Scale
Scale
Effect on Probability Impact
ID Risk Probability
Project Score Score
1 Risk # 01 Very High High 0.9 0.4
2 Risk # 02 Low Medium 0.3 0.2
3 Risk # 03 Very High Very High 0.9 0.8
4 Risk # 04 Medium Very Low 0.5 0.05
5 Risk # 05 Medium High 0.5 0.4
6 Risk # 06 Very Low Medium 0.1 0.2
2.3 Risk Scores and/or Ranks are Computed
For option A , the example shows the scope as result of Multiplying Impart and Probablity scores (as per PMBOK Example
For option B , the example shows the scope as result of Average of Impact and Probablity scores (Commonly used Metho
For opBased on Probability and Impact Scales defined in Item (I)

Option A Option B Option C


Based on Based on Risk Based on Risk
Multiplication Probability and Average Priority Scale Rating Matrix
Impact Matrix

ID Risk
Risk Score Risk Rank Risk Score Risk Rank Risk Rank
1 Risk # 01 0.36 High 0.65 High Very High
2 Risk # 02 0.06 Medium 0.25 Low Low
3 Risk # 03 0.72 High 0.85 Very High Very High
4 Risk # 04 0.03 Low 0.28 Low Very Low
5 Risk # 05 0.20 Medium 0.45 Medium High
6 Risk # 06 0.02 Low 0.15 Very Low Very Low
Values and Color Codes Vary from One Company to the other

3) Prioritized List of Risks if produced


Example Based on Option A Above

Option A
Effect on
ID Risk Probability Rate
Project
3 Risk # 03 Very High Very High High
1 Risk # 01 Medium High High
5 Risk # 05 Medium Medium Medium
2 Risk # 02 Low Medium Medium
4 Risk # 04 Medium Very Low Low
6 Risk # 06 Very Low Medium Low
e file) : www.officenan.et

robability and Impact

Option B : Risk Priority Scale 3 Levels


To be Defined in Planning
Example of Risk Priority Scale
Score
Color Score To
From
Red 76 100
Yellow 26 75
No Fill 0 25

ption C : 3 Cells
obablity scores (as per PMBOK Example)
obablity scores (Commonly used Method)

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