T.A.

PAI MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE

CASUALTIES IN INDIAN
RAILWAYS
A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
FAS AM2

Christina Rachel Jacob-17F808

Eswar Rohith Puvvada-17F809

Piyush Bhatia-17F826

Selina Elias-17F838

Shubhank Shrivastava-17F840

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CONTENTS
S. NO. TITLE PAGE NO.

Abstract
1. INTRODUCTION 5
1.1 Objective
1.2 About Indian Railways
1.3 Background and Conext

2. Scope of Project 8
3. Methodology 9
3.1 Data collection
3.2 Research methodology
3.3 Data Analysis
3.4Tools for Analysis
3.5 Formulation of Hypothesis
4. Results and Analysis 13
5. Recommendations and solutions 19

6. References 20

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LIST OF FIGURES
S. NO. Fig. DESCRIPTION
1. 3(a) Total casualties by year(according to
reasons)
2. 3b) Total casualties by year
3. 4(a) ANOVA results
4. 4(b) Post Hoc results
5. 4(c) Means Plot
6. 4(d) ANOVA results
7. 4(e) Post Hoc results
8. 4(f) Means Plot
9. 4(g) ANOVA results
10. 4(h) Post Hoc results
11. 4(i) Means Plot

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Abstract
The study aims at analyzing the injuries and deaths caused due to accidents in Indian
Railways. The various deaths and injuries were classified among three major reasons and the
major contributor was identified. Moreover, the affected population was segmented into 3
major categories and analyzed with respect to the injuries and deaths. At the end of the study,
the major reason, the most affected segment of people and the time period witnessing most
casualties were identified. As the increase in number of accidents in Indian Railways suggests
changes and improvements in Rail facilities, the study concludes with suggestions and
recommendations to Indian Railways.

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 1. Introduction

1.1 Objective

This Article studies the number of deaths and injuries due to rail accidents over the years due
to various reasons. The study explores the major causes on these accidents and lays emphasis
on the potential improvements to be made in the Railways sector. Moreover, the trend for
various years has been analyzed and the reasons are matched with the same. The main
objectives of the study are:

 Identification of the major cause of the Rail accidents over years and recommending
solutions to the Indian Railways to make improvements regarding the same.
 Identification of the sector of people most affected by the Rail accidents.
 Finding out the time period which witnessed the most number of casualties due to rail
accidents and highlighting the increasing number of accidents over the recent years
while making recommendations regarding the same.

1.2 About Indian Railways

Indian Railways is a State owned national transporter, responsible for rail transport in India.
It is owned and operated by the Government of India through the Ministry of Railways. It is
the third largest railway network in the world comprising 119,630 kilometres (74,330 mi) of
total track] and 92,081 km (57,216 mi) of running track over a route of 66,687 km
(41,437 mi) with 7,216 stations at the end of 2015-16. The railway network is predominantly
a broad gauge network.
IR operates both long distance and suburban rail systems. IR ran on average 13,313 passenger
trains daily in 2015-16. The trains have a five-digit numbering system. Mail or express trains,
the most common types, run at an average speed of 50.9 km/hr.[6] As of the end of 2015-16,
IR's rolling stock comprised over 251,256 freight wagons, 70,241 passenger coaches and
11,122 locomotives (39 powered by steam, 5,869 by diesel fuel and 5214 by electricity).[2] It
also owns locomotive and coach production facilities at several places in India.
IR is the world's eighth biggest employer and had 1.331 million employees at the end of
2015-16.[3] In 2015–2016, IR had revenues of ₹1.683 trillion (US$26 billion), consisting
of ₹1.069 trillion (US$17 billion) freight earnings and ₹442.83 billion (US$6.9 billion)
passengers earnings.[2] It had an operating ratio of 90.5% in 2015-16.

Revenue ₹1.683 trillion(US$26 billion) (2015–16)

Net ₹105.05 billion(US$1.6 billion) (2015–16)

income

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During FY 2016-17, the passenger traffic of Indian Railways grew 0.8 per cent to 8,219.38
million, with passenger revenue growth of 4.6 per cent at Rs 47,449.75 crore (US$ 7.37
billion). The overall revenue of Indian Railways grew 8.7 per cent year-on-year to Rs
15,884.58 crore (US$ 2.47 billion) during March 2017. The passenger earnings grew 10.1 per
cent to Rs 4,205.29 crore (US$ 652.90 million) and the freight earnings grew 4.1 per cent to
Rs 10,273.20 crore (US$ 1.60 billion) during March 2017.
The revenue generated by the Railways is expected to grow at 10 per cent in the fiscal year
2017-18. The Union Budget 2017-18 has estimated that the overall earnings will rise to Rs
189,498.37 crore (US$ 28.42 billion) in 2017-18, compared to Rs 172,305 crore (US$ 25.84
billion) in the fiscal year 2016-17.

1.3 Background and Context

The year 2017 has witnessed a lot of injuries and kills resulting from train accidents. The
increasing accidents are a huge concern for the Indian Railways. The major accidents of 2017
are:
1. Utkal Express derailment, Aug 18, 2017.

At least 23 people were killed and over 40 others injured when 14 coaches of Puri-Haridwar-
Kalinga Express train derailed in Khatauli in Uttar Pradesh's Muzaffarnagar district. The toll
was expected to rise as some of the injured were in critical condition. The cause of the
accident was not immediately known.

2. Meerut-Lucknow Rajya Rani Express derailment, April 15, 2017.

Ten people were injured when the express train derailed near Rampur in Uttar Pradesh. The
derailment happened near a bridge over the Koshi river. UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath
announced Rs 50,000 compensation to those seriously injured and Rs 25,000 to people with
minor injuries.

3. Jagdalpur-Bhubaneswar Hirakhand Express derailment, Jan 22, 2017.

Twenty-seven people were killed and 36 others were injured when nine coaches of the
express train derailed in Andhra Pradesh’s Vizianagaram district.

4. Kalindi Express derailment, Feb 20, 2017.

The engine and the three coaches of the Delhi-bound Kalindi Express was derailed at the
Tundla Junction in Uttar Pradesh. The derailment happened when the train rammed into a

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freight train from the back.

5. Ujjain train blast, March 3, 2017.

Eight people were injured, two of them seriously, in an explosion in the Bhopal-Ujjain
passenger train near Jabdi station in Madhya Pradesh. The state government had called it a
terrorist attack.

6. Train rams into ambulance in Bengaluru, March 17, 2017. Four

women were killed when a passenger train rammed into an ambulance at an
unmanned level crossing at Mannekote-Talaka road in Karnataka's Chitradurga
district. The ambulance driver misjudged the speed of the approaching train and tried
to cross the unmanned level crossing.

7. Mahakaushal Express derailment, March 30, 2017.

A total of 52 passengers were injured when the Mahakaushal Express derailed in Uttar
Pradesh. The train, which runs between Jabalpur in Madhya Pradesh and Hazrat Nizamuddin
in Delhi derailed near Kulpahar station.

8. Goods train derailment in West Bengal, April 9, 2017.

The engine of a goods train derailed between Madpur and Jakpur stations in West Bengal.
The derailment had affected train services. However, there was no casualty. A study carried
out by IndiaSpend website had claimed that “excessive traffic” and “underinvestment in rail
infrastructure” were main factors for derailments.

The increasing derailments and accidents need to be checked and reasons have to be assessed.
This study classifies the causes of these accidents into 3 main categories:

1. Miscellaneous And Failure of railway equipment

2. In unusual occurrences caused by movement of railway vehicles exclusive of train
accidents etc.
3. In unusual occurrences on railway premises not connected with the movement of
railway vehicles.

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 2. Scope of the Project
There are several reasons for Train accidents occurring in our country which include:

 Derailments
 Mechanical failure
 Human error
 Distracted pedestrians
 Problems with the track
 Crashes with other trains and vehicles
 Accidents at unprotected railroad crossings
 Stalled cars on the track
 Suicides

These vast reasons can be majorly classified into 3 main categories. Thus, our study is
restricted to these 3 reasons mentioned below:
1) In train accidents, failures of Railway equipment and misc. accidents
2) In unusual occurrences caused by movement of railway vehicles exclusive of train
accidents etc.
3) In unusual occurrences on railway premises not connected with the movement of
railway vehicles

The Total Population affected is classified into 3 main categories mentioned below:
1) Passengers
2) Railway Servants
3) Other Persons

The study analyzes the various deaths and injuries for a period of 12 years i.e. from 2002-
2014.

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 3. Methodology
3.1 Data Collection

Data required for our project “Casualties in Indian Railways” has been collected from Indian
Railways Website. The data contained separate entries for injuries and deaths due to several
reasons which were further refined to obtain total casualty with respect to occurrence year.

3.2 Research Methodology

Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a collection of statistical models used to analyse the

differences among group means and their associated procedures (such as "variation" among
and between groups). In the ANOVA setting, the observed variance in a particular variable is
partitioned into components attributable to different sources of variation. In its simplest form,
ANOVA provides a statistical test of whether or not the means of several groups are equal,
and therefore generalizes the t-test to more than two groups. ANOVAs are useful for
comparing (testing) three or more means (groups or variables) for statistical significance. It is
conceptually similar to multiple two-sample t-tests, but is more conservative (results in
less type I error) and is therefore suited to a wide range of practical problems.

An ANOVA test is a way to find out if survey or experiment results are significant. In other
words, they help you to figure out if you need to reject the null hypothesis or accept
the alternate hypothesis. Basically, you’re testing groups to see if there’s a difference
between them.

ANOVA is used in the analysis of comparative experiments, those in which only the
difference in outcomes is of interest. The statistical significance of the experiment is
determined by a ratio of two variances.

3.3 Data Analysis

The data collected contains the number of injuries and deaths resulting from Railway
accidents due to various reasons. The total casualty was plotted against the year of
occurrence. The total deaths and injuries due to various reasons are also highlighted in the
scatter.

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 Fig. 3(a)

Fig. 3(b)

3.4 Tools for Analysis

The study uses SPSS Statistics as a tool to analyze the data and compute the results. SPSS
Statistics is a software package used for logical batched and non-batched statistical analysis..
Companion products in the same family are used for survey authoring and deployment (IBM
SPSS Data Collection, now divested under UNICOM Intelligence), data mining , text
analytics, and collaboration and deployment (batch and automated scoring services). The
software name originally stood for Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS),
reflecting the original market.
SPSS is a widely used program for statistical analysis in social science. It is also used by
market researchers, health researchers, survey companies, government, education researchers,
marketing organizations, data miners, and others. The original SPSS manual (Nie, Bent &

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Hull, 1970) has been described as one of "sociology's most influential books" for allowing
ordinary researchers to do their own statistical analysis. In addition to statistical analysis, data
management (case selection, file reshaping, creating derived data) and data documentation
(a metadata dictionary was stored in the data file) are features of the base software.
Statistics included in the base software:

 Descriptive statistics: Cross tabulation, Frequencies, Descriptives, Explore, Descriptive

Ratio Statistics
 Bivariate statistics: Means, t-test, ANOVA, Correlation (bivariate, partial,
distances), Nonparametric tests
 Prediction for numerical outcomes: Linear regression
 Prediction for identifying groups: Factor analysis, cluster analysis (two-step, K-
means, hierarchical), Discriminant

3.5 Formulation of Hypothesis

a) H0: μ1= μ2 = μ3
Ha: Not all Population means are equal

Where,
μ1=Mean number of casualties due to failures of Railway equipment and misc. Accidents
μ2=Mean number of casualties in unusual occurrences caused by movement of railway
vehicles exclusive of train accidents etc.

μ3= Mean number of casualties in unusual occurrences on railway premises not connected with
the movement of railway vehicles.

b) H0: μ1= μ2 = μ3
Ha: Not all Population means are equal
Where,
μ1=Mean number of casualties among Passengers.
μ2= Mean number of casualties among Railway Servants.

μ3= Mean number of casualties among other people.

c) H0: μ1= μ2 = μ3
Ha: Not all Population means are equal

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Where,
μ1=Mean number of casualties during 2002-2006.
μ2= Mean number of casualties during 2006-2010.

μ3= Mean number of casualties during 2010-2014.

The software provided us with ANOVA and post hoc test results which are analyzed in the
next section.

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 4. Results And Analysis
The results for the tests conducted are mentioned below:

a)

Fig. 4(a)

Fig. 4(b)

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 Fig. 4(c)

Where,

 Reason 1- In train accidents, failures of Railway equipment and misc.

Accidents.
 Reason 2-In unusual occurrences caused by movement of railway vehicles
exclusive of train accidents etc.
 Reason 3-In unusual occurrences on railway premises not connected with the
movement of railway vehicles.

The conclusions from results are as under:

 The results of the ANOVA (Fig. 4(a)) shows that p value< α (Level of
Significance=0.05) which implies that there are at least two population with
different means. The casualties due to different reasons vary and some
particular reason has higher contribution in deaths and injuries.
 Post hoc test results (Fig.4 (b)) show that there isn’t any significant difference
between mean of casualties due to reason 1 and 3.
 The casualties are more due to second reason i.e. In unusual occurrences
caused by movement of railway vehicles exclusive of train accidents etc.
 The means plot (Fig. 4(c)) also shows the significant difference between
means of casualties due to the different reasons.

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b)

Fig. 4(d)

Fig. 4(e)

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 Fig. 4(f)

Where,

People 1-Passengers

People 2- Railway servants

People 3- Other people

The conclusions from results are as under:

 The results of the ANOVA (Fig. 4(d)) shows that p value< α (Level of
Significance=0.05) which implies that there are at least two sector of people with
different means. The casualties among different sector of people vary and some
particular sector of people has higher contribution in deaths and injuries.
 Post hoc test results (Fig.4 (e)) show that there isn’t any significant difference
between mean of casualties due to reason 1 and 2 as their p value> α (Level of
Significance=0.05).
 The casualties are more among third sector of population i.e. other people.
 The means plot (Fig. 4(f)) also shows the significant difference between means of
casualties among different sector of people.

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c)

Fig. 4(g)

Fig. 4(h)

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 Fig. 4(i)

Where,

Time period 1- Time period of 2002-2006

Time period 2- Time period of 2006-2010

Time period 3- Time period of 2010-2014

The conclusions from results are as under:

 The results of the ANOVA (Fig. 4(g)) shows that p value< α (Level of
Significance=0.05) which implies that there are at least two time periods with
different mean casualties.
 Post hoc test results (Fig.4 (h)) show that there isn’t any significant difference
between mean of casualties in time period 1 and 2 as their p value> α (Level of
Significance=0.05)i.e. mean casualties between 2002-2006 and 2006-2010 were not
significantly different.
 The casualties are more in third time period i.e. 2010-2014.
 The means plot (Fig. 4(i)) also shows the significant difference between means of
casualties in different time periods.

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Recommendations and Solutions
1) The major reason for rail casualties was movement of railway vehicles exclusive of
train accidents which includes human error.
2) Signal circuiting can be improved so as to improve coordination among trains.
3) Improvements in the auxiliary warning system and increasing its adaptability,
4) Relying more on automation and shifting towards mechanized labour rather than
manual.
5) Increasing the number of guards and supervisors in routes with frequent accidents.
6) Replacing old coaches which lack enough features to deal with crashes.
7) Train protection warning systems can be installed in coaches so as to alarm the
passengers about any instability.

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References
 https://knoema.com/MOSPIIRAS2012/india-railways-accident-
statistics?tsId=1000140
 https://www.safetyonline.com/doc/indian-government-takes-steps-to-reduce-train-
0001
 https://www.mapsofindia.com/my-india/india/how-is-india-planning-to-stop-train-
accidents
 http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=155175
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPSS
 https://factly.in/indian-railway-accidents-statistics-review-last-5-years/
 https://www.sidgilreath.com/learn/railroad-accidents-causes.html
 https://www.ibef.org/industry/indian-railways.aspx

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