Anticipation Skill in A Real-World Task: Measurement, Training, and Transfer in Tennis
Anticipation Skill in A Real-World Task: Measurement, Training, and Transfer in Tennis
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Anticipation skill in tennis was examined using realistic film simulations, movement-based response
measures, and a portable eye movement recording system. Skilled players were faster than their less
skilled counterparts in anticipating the direction of opponents’ tennis strokes, with this superior perfor-
mance being based, at least in part, on more effective visual search behaviors. The processes mediating
superior performance were then modeled in groups of recreational tennis players using video simulation,
instruction, and feedback. Players who received perceptual training improved their performance on
laboratory- and field-based tests of anticipation when compared with matched placebo and control groups
that did not receive any instruction regarding expert performance strategies. The approach used may have
practical utility in a variety of performance contexts.
Perceptual skills play a crucial role in the performance of long-term working memory theory proposed by Ericsson and
everyday tasks such as driving (McKenna & Horswill, 1999), colleagues (e.g., Ericsson & Delaney, 1999; Ericsson & Kintsch,
reaching and grasping (Goodale & Servos, 1996), and sports 1995) suggests that experts bypass the limitations of short-term
participation (Williams, Davids, & Williams, 1999). The ability to working memory by acquiring skills that promote both rapid
anticipate a future event based on information arising early in the encoding of information in long-term memory and allow selective
display is often regarded as one of the most important perceptual access to this information when required. With extensive practice,
skills underlying effective motor performance. For example, experts index information in such a way that they can successfully
skilled drivers are able to anticipate hazardous traffic situations anticipate future retrieval demands. Retrieval cues kept in short-
more effectively than novices, thereby reducing their accident term working memory facilitate access to information stored in
liability (McKenna & Horswill, 1999). Similarly, in sports such as long-term memory. Expert performers, therefore, acquire flexible
tennis, the ability to anticipate an opponent’s intentions based on representations that facilitate performance and allow them to adapt
postural cues provides a crucial performance advantage (e.g., see rapidly to changes in situational demands.
Rowe & McKenna, 2001; Singer et al., 1994). Although research on perceptual expertise is rapidly expanding,
The majority of researchers working on perceptual (and cogni- knowledge as to the mechanisms underpinning anticipation skill is
tive) expertise have adopted an information-processing framework somewhat limited, and there have been few attempts to determine
and used the expert–novice paradigm to isolate the important whether its acquisition can be facilitated through training and
attributes that differentiate skilled from less skilled individuals. instruction (see Williams et al., 1999). In this article, we use the
The consensus seems to be that expert performers develop knowl- expertise approach advocated by Ericsson and Smith (1991) to
edge and skills that enable them to deal effectively with a variety rectify perceived shortcomings in the literature. In Experiment 1,
of related performance scenarios. The relationship between visual the important characteristics of anticipation skill in a real-world
perception, memory, and skill has previously been explained task are identified by using realistic film simulations, movement-
through reference to the perceptual “chunking” model proposed by based response measures, and a portable eye movement recording
Chase and Simon (1973). This model suggests that experts can system. The intention was to analyze and describe the perceptual
exceed the capacity of short-term memory by clustering or group- processes critical to expert performance on the task. In Experi-
ing individual elements (e.g., individual player positions) into ment 2, knowledge derived from Experiment 1 is used to create a
larger and more meaningful units (e.g., game configurations). systematic training program with the intention of improving an-
More recently, Gobet and Simon’s (1996) template theory inte- ticipation skill. The approach used in this program of research,
grates perceptual features such as chunks with high-level cognitive namely that of developing a realistic performance measure so as to
processes such as schematic knowledge and planning through capture and analyze expert performance and then using this infor-
complex data structures referred to as templates. In contrast, the mation to design and implement a suitable training intervention,
might have practical utility in a variety of performance contexts.
259
260 WILLIAMS, WARD, KNOWLES, AND SMEETON
Figure 1. The experimental setup used during the laboratory- (A) and field-based (B) tests of anticipation skill.
Response accuracy (RA). This was defined as the mean correctness of seven fixation locations: head–shoulder, trunk– hips, arm– hand, leg–
the participant’s response relative to the actual shot destination across all foot, racket, ball, and racket– ball contact areas. A further “unclassified”
trials (in percentages). category was included to account for those fixations that did not fall
Decision time (DT). This was the mean time from onset of the film clip within any of the above areas (i.e., net, court, or background areas).
to the initiation of the participant’s movement response across all trials (in Fixation locations were classified objectively by superimposing scan
milliseconds). The response was completed when the participant lifted his paths over the dynamic display. Percentage viewing time was analyzed
foot off one of the pressure sensitive pads. using a factorial analysis of variance (ANOVA) in which group was a
Performance on the anticipation test was analyzed statistically using a between-participant factor and fixation location was a within-
one-way multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), with group participant factor.
(skilled, less skilled) as a between-participant factor and DT and RA as the Search rate. This measure was comprised of the average number of
dependent measures. Planned comparisons were carried out to compare the fixation locations per trial, the average number of fixations per trial, and
performance of both groups on each dependent measure, respectively. mean fixation duration (in milliseconds). As in previous research (e.g.,
Effect sizes were calculated using the Cohen’s d statistic. Williams & Davids, 1998), a fixation was defined as the period of time (ⱖ
Three measures of visual search behavior were recorded. 100 ms) when the eye remained stationary within 1.5° of movement
Percentage viewing time. This measure was the percentage of time tolerance. Each variable was analyzed separately using a one-way
spent fixating on each area of the display. The display was divided into ANOVA, with group as a between-participant factor.
262 WILLIAMS, WARD, KNOWLES, AND SMEETON
Search order. This variable was defined as the average frequency with Table 2
which a combination of successive fixation locations was observed on each Mean and ⫾ Standard Deviation Decision Time (DT) and
trial (i.e., fixations immediately prior to or following the current fixation). Response Accuracy (RA) Scores of the Laboratory-Based
Initial analyses were performed descriptively using a series of transition Anticipation Test
matrices. Two variables were subsequently analyzed using separate one-
way ANOVAs, with group as a between-participant factor. These variables Mean error rate Standard deviation
were the number of transitions between racket, ball, and racket– ball
contact areas and the number of transitions between head–shoulder and Group DT (ms) RA (%) DT (ms) RA (%)
trunk– hip region.
Skilled 3,817.5 68.4 63.3 4.0
Less skilled 3,954.5 64.5 89.5 10.3
Results
Anticipation Test
of locations fixated per trial, the average number of fixations per
The results of the MANOVA are presented in Table 1. Planned
trial, or the mean fixation duration (all ps ⬎ .05, d ⫽ 0.59, 0.17,
comparisons indicated that the skilled players were significantly
and 0.20, respectively). Participants averaged 6.5 (SD ⫽ 1.20)
quicker than the less skilled participants in responding to the
fixations per trial, with a mean duration of 526.6 (SD ⫽ 134.5) ms,
virtual tennis strokes ( p ⬍ .01, d ⫽ 1.77). No differences were
whereas an average of 4.2 (SD ⫽ 0.5) locations were fixated on per
observed between groups in response accuracy ( p ⬎ .05,
trial.
d ⫽ 0.49). The mean data are presented in Table 2.
Figure 2. Mean (⫾ SE) percentage time spent viewing each fixation location for skilled and less skilled
participants.
Jones & Miles, 1978; Rowe & McKenna, 2001; Singer et al., The search order data suggested that the skilled players also
1996). The skilled players made a decision approximately 140 ms considered the subtle relations between areas within the central
earlier than the less skilled players did, thereby providing a con- body region, such as the degree of rotation of the torso or the
siderable performance advantage with regard to successful stroke orientation of the shoulders relative to the hips (cf. Ward et al.,
execution. 2002). In contrast, the search order data suggest that the less
Systematic differences in gaze behavior were observed across skilled participants primarily considered the relationships between
the two skill groups. The less skilled players preferred to focus on the movements of the racket and ball trajectory relative to the
more obvious, deterministic cues from the racket and ball regions. impending racket– ball contact zone.
In contrast, the skilled players utilized a more synthetic search In summary, skilled tennis players demonstrated superior antic-
strategy, using prior knowledge and experience to direct their gaze ipatory performance compared with their less skilled counterparts.
toward additional, perhaps more subtle task-relevant information The experts’ anticipation skill was based, at least in part, on more
cues located around the central body areas (i.e., head–shoulder, refined and effective visual search behaviors. The skilled players
trunk– hip). Also, with an increase in skill level, there was an spent longer periods of time fixating on central body regions such
enhanced ability to search for, and utilize, cues from earlier oc- as the head–shoulders and trunk– hip regions compared with less
curring events within the display. The less skilled players relied on skilled players who, in contrast, used more distal cues such as the
later occurring, distal cues; information that was likely to have racket and ball to guide their anticipatory response. In Experi-
been only confirmatory in nature for the high-skilled players. ment 2, we used information about the processes mediating supe-
These differences in visual behavior across skill groups are similar rior performance to develop a systematic training program to
to those presented in previous studies involving both eye move- enhance anticipation skill in less skilled tennis players. We used
ment recording (e.g., Singer et al., 1996; Ward et al., 2002) and various instructional approaches coupled with an innovative field-
retrospective verbal reports (e.g., Buckolz et al., 1988). based measure of performance transfer.
Table 4 Table 5
The Results of Separate ANOVA Tests for the Mean Number of The Results of Separate ANOVA Tests to Examine Differences in
Fixation Locations, Number of Fixations, and Fixation Duration Search Order Transitions Between and Within Different Display
Per Trial Areas
No. of fixation locations 1 0.03 14 0.29 0.12 Head–shoulders, trunk–hips 1 42.25 14 5.26 8.02**
No. of fixations 1 2.15 14 1.62 1.33 Racket, ball, racket–ball 1 81.00 14 5.75 14.10**
Fixation duration 1 3,011.26 14 19,165.92 0.18
Note. ANOVA ⫽ analysis of variance.
Note. ANOVA ⫽ analysis of variance; No. ⫽ number. ** p ⬍ .01.
264 WILLIAMS, WARD, KNOWLES, AND SMEETON
Table 6 Table 7
MANOVA Test Results for the Laboratory-Based Anticipation MANOVA Test Results for the Field-Based Anticipation Test
Test
Effect ⌳ F df
Effect ⌳ F df
Group .69 1.49 6, 46
Group .91 0.36 6, 46 Test .31 25.19** 2, 23
Test .79 2.89 2, 23 Group ⫻ Test .57 2.44* 6, 46
Group ⫻ Test .57 2.40* 6, 46
Note. MANOVA ⫽ multivariate analysis of variance.
Note. MANOVA ⫽ multivariate analysis of variance. * p ⬍ .05. ** p ⬍ .01.
* p ⬍ .05.
Figure 3. Mean (⫾ SE) performance scores for the four groups of participants on the laboratory-based test of
anticipation. pre ⫽ pretest; post ⫽ posttest.
ANTICIPATION SKILL IN TENNIS 267
Figure 4. Mean (⫾ SE) performance scores for the four groups of participants on the field-based test of
anticipation. pre ⫽ pretest; post ⫽ posttest.
ing tennis forehand and backhand strokes. The use of matched experiment showed that on the field-based test of anticipation,
placebo and control groups and a field-based measure of transfer participants in the explicit instruction and guided discovery groups
provided further innovations. significantly improved their DT values on the posttest compared
The data from the laboratory-based test of anticipation skill with their initial pretest scores. The mean improvement in decision
showed that both the explicit instruction and guided discovery time from pre- to posttest for the two training groups was almost
groups significantly improved their performance from pre- to 200 ms (d ⫽ 2.08). Also, although there were no differences
posttest. The mean improvement in decision time from pre- to between the four groups on the pretest, the two training groups
posttest for the two training groups was almost 120 ms (d ⫽ 0.60). recorded faster DT scores than the control and placebo groups on
This difference reflects a meaningful improvement in anticipatory the posttest. The results provide further support for the practical
performance to levels approaching those of the high-skill group in utility of perceptual training programs and indicate that skills
Experiment 1, presumably as a result of a more refined ability to developed in the laboratory transfer to the field setting. Video
pick up subtle postural cues and to ignore irrelevant sources of simulation and field-based instruction help to develop the under-
information (Goldstone, 1998). Findings provide support for other lying knowledge structures and skills and facilitate the acquisition
researchers who have attempted to enhance anticipation skill in of anticipation skill in real-world tasks.
sport and other settings (Abernethy et al., 1999; Helsen & Starkes, Although the performance of the two training groups on the
1999; O’Hare et al., 1998). field-based test closely mirrored that reported on the laboratory
Although there were no differences between groups in DT or test, the RA scores were lower on the laboratory-based test than on
RA on the pretest, the explicit instruction and guided discovery the field-based test. In the field setting, the players could see the
groups recorded higher levels of accuracy on the posttest com- first, and if need be, the latter portions of ball flight, and as a
pared with the control and placebo groups. In contrast, no signif- consequence, made relatively few errors. In contrast, on the film-
icant pre-to-posttest differences in performance were evident for based test, the participants were constrained to anticipate early and
participants in the control and placebo groups. The improvement in were only allowed a relatively short view of the ball’s trajectory.
performance in the two groups undertaking anticipation training is Also, it may be harder to anticipate ball direction from film clips
a meaningful training effect as opposed to the result of increased compared with an actual situation (cf. Williams et al., 1999). The
test familiarity or confirmation bias. The findings provide support loss of dimensionality and auditory cues as well as the potential
for other recent studies (e.g., Abernethy et al., 1999; Farrow et al., difficulty of orienting the response in relation to the film may
1998). It should be noted however that the participants in the make the laboratory task more difficult than the field test.
placebo group in this experiment were not exposed to any on-court The field-based measure of anticipation used in this study offers
practice. Consequently, the possibility remains that the training much potential for the assessment of perceptual skill in a variety of
improvement observed for the explicit instruction and guided sports, particularly those involving more “closed skills” such as the
discovery groups may be partly due to familiarity effects as a result serve in various racket sports, the penalty flick in field hockey, or
of undertaking an extra 45 min of on-court instruction. This the penalty kick in soccer. Moreover, such techniques may be used
potential confound should be addressed in future experiments by effectively to measure performance in nonsport tasks such as
requiring participants in the placebo group to undertake on-court police and military training or driving and aircraft piloting. The
practice in addition to video-based instruction, perhaps in relation advent of high-speed (i.e., ⬎ 50 Hz) cameras and digital editing
to refining technical skills. and coding systems should enhance measurement sensitivity and
Another novel component of the current experiment was the the potential benefits of using video analysis as a behavioral
inclusion of some measure of performance transfer from the lab- assessment tool.
oratory to the field. Typically, researchers have failed to develop No significant differences in performance were observed be-
objective and sensitive measures of transfer. To promote the need tween the explicit instruction and guided discovery groups on the
for evidence-based practice, some measure of transfer is essential laboratory- or field-based pre- or posttests in DT (␣ ⫽ .07 and .28)
to determine whether improvements observed in the laboratory or RA (␣ ⫽ .06 and .06). Researchers have proposed that guided
transfer to the performance setting. The results of the present discovery instruction may be more beneficial to performance,
268 WILLIAMS, WARD, KNOWLES, AND SMEETON
particularly when performing in stressful environments (Masters, strategies has practical utility as a method of enhancing anticipa-
1992; Maxwell et al., 2000). The suggestion is that guided discov- tion skill in real-world contexts.
ery approaches allow learners to explore various ways to solve the The advantages of using video technology in this way are that
problem, encouraging them to provide a variety of solutions and learning can occur at a self-regulated pace, in a safe environment
increasing perceptual flexibility and adaptability (Savelsbergh & either at or away from the workplace, and the equipment is
Van der Kamp, 2000). In contrast, traditional explicit instruction relatively inexpensive and accessible. Video images can be easily
approaches may be overly prescriptive, constraining the learner to captured and manipulated for training purposes by, for instance,
rely on less efficient sources of perceptual information. It would be highlighting or occluding relevant or irrelevant sources of infor-
interesting to see if the improvements in perceptual skill are mation. Video training may be supported by practice sessions
maintained over prolonged periods of time and whether the im- undertaken in situ, whereas in future virtual reality may also
plicitly trained players’ perceptual processes are more robust to provide exciting opportunities for those interested in designing and
changes in emotional states, as proposed by Masters and col- implementing perceptual training programs (e.g., see Loomis,
leagues. Further research is required using larger sample groups to Blascovich, & Beal, 1999).
explore the relative effectiveness of these instructional techniques Although the model of perceptual training proposed in this
in facilitating the acquisition of perceptual skill. article offers much potential for enhancing performance in various
settings, a number of outstanding issues need to be addressed.
First, eye movement data were not collected on the laboratory-
General Discussion and Conclusions based posttest and consequently, it is not possible to conclude
whether the observed improvements in anticipatory performance
This program of research had several objectives. First, we for the two training groups was reflected by the expected changes
developed a realistic laboratory-based test of anticipation skill in a in visual search behaviors. Thus far, few researchers have exam-
real-world task involving tennis using life-size film images and ined whether, or how, visual behaviors change during skill acqui-
movement-based response measures and used a portable eye sition, and consequently this is an area that merits further inves-
movement recording system to identify differences in visual search tigation (cf. Williams, 2002).
behavior between skilled and less skilled performers. Second, we Another interesting issue is whether other perceptual skills can
used information derived from this test to develop a training also be developed by using a combination of video simulation and
program based on video simulation and instruction to enhance instruction. There is evidence to suggest that pattern recognition
perceptual skill. We made an attempt to examine the relative skill can be improved through repeated exposure to a variety of
effectiveness of explicit instruction and guided discovery instruc- related action sequences (see Wilkinson, 1992). A suggestion is
tional techniques. The inclusion of matched placebo and control that exposure to specific patterns of play in sport, for example,
groups along with a novel measure of transfer provided further results in the development of specialized receptors or detectors
innovations. We hoped that the three-step approach used in this through a process termed imprinting (Goldstone, 1998). These
program of research, whereby expert performance is initially cap- detectors are proposed to develop and strengthen with exposure to
tured with a realistic task, followed by more detailed analysis of the stimulus or stimuli resulting in increased speed, accuracy, and
the underlying processes, and then finally, an investigation of the general fluency with which stimuli are processed.
important effects of practice and training on performance, would The question of how practice should be structured for effective
have implications in a range of settings, particularly where deci- learning has always been a topical area for debate in the motor
sions have to be made under temporal constraint. skills literature (see, Lee, Chamberlin, & Hodges, 2001). The
The findings show that anticipation skill in real-world tasks can general consensus is that variability of practice and high-
be accurately measured in the laboratory with representative tasks contextual interference practice conditions are beneficial for skill
that incorporated life-size film displays and realistic response acquisition. In contrast, few researchers have examined whether
measures. The skilled performers were faster in responding to the similar principles apply in the learning of perceptual and cognitive
tennis simulations compared with their less skilled counterparts, skills (for a recent exception from the ergonomics literature, see de
and systematic differences in visual search behavior were observed Croock, van Merriënboer, & Paas, 1998). Similarly, the optimal
between the two skill groups. The skilled performers extracted frequency and duration of perceptual training sessions has yet to be
more meaningful information than the less skilled players did from determined. The average length of a session has ranged from 15
the trunk and hip regions in attempting to anticipate the direction min to 2 hr, whereas the frequency has varied from a single session
of an opponent’s forehand and backhand drive shots. The pro- to a 6-week training period (see Williams & Grant, 1999). Does
cesses mediating expert performance were then modeled success- perceptual skill continue to improve with training and practice, or
fully in a group of less skilled players using video simulation is there an optimal point beyond which the additional training
coupled with instruction and feedback. The two groups of partic- benefits are minimal? There is also controversy as to whether
ipants who were exposed to perceptual training improved their perceptual training programs should be used with experts, inter-
performance on the anticipation test compared with matched pla- mediates, or novices. Although the majority of training studies
cebo and control groups who did not receive any instruction. have used novice participants, the answer to this question may
Moreover, the improvement in performance observed in the labo- depend on the nature and difficulty of the skills being taught as
ratory transferred to the field setting, confirming that the observed well as the type of simulation used (for an interesting discussion,
improvement was a meaningful treatment effect rather than the see Alessi, 1988). When attempting to answer these questions,
result of increased test familiarity or habituation. It appears that some degree of guidance may be obtained from the extensive
video simulation and instruction regarding expert performance literature pertaining to the acquisition of motor skills; however,
ANTICIPATION SKILL IN TENNIS 269
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