PAKISTAN ARMY

Note from the Patron-in-Chief

GENERAL QAMAR JAVED BAJWA, NI (M)
Chief of Army Staff

The environment continues to get complex with introduction of terms like Lawfare, Cross
Domain Deterrence, and the lines keep getting blurry between different kinds of warfare from
conventional to SCW, Hybrid, Grey Hybrid, 5th GW, Non-Contact Warfare etc. South Asia is one
such region, which has seen manifestation of these jargons more than the rest of the World. Year
2019 witnessed two significant events which will have lasting imprint on the geopolitics of this
region; first, the unwarranted Balakot Strike by Indian Air Force on 26th February and second,
the unilateral annexation of Indian Occupied Jammu & Kashmir by Mr Modi on 5th August,
through abrogation of Article 370 and 35A. Former was a coercive attempt to carve out space for
war under nuclear overhang and enforce compellence; adroitly denied by Pakistan Air Force the
very next day, through a calibrated and proportionate response – Indian craving for establishing
a New Normal was stymied comprehensively. The latter, despite condemnation by the World
at large, continues to haunt the lives of over eight million Muslims of IOJK, who are subjected
to flagrant denial of basic human rights including right to self-determination enshrined in UN
Charter and guaranteed by various UN Resolutions; the Valley continues to witness the longest
curfew ever. Kashmir is a nuclear flashpoint and in total disregard to international norms, Mr
Modi has not only endangered the immediate neighbourhood, but has also raised the ante for
the entire World.
The scholarly discourse in current edition of Pakistan Army Green Book has accordingly
spotlighted the implications of these events from diverse perspectives and dimensions.
Additionally, the book also takes an insightful look at other contemporary non-traditional
security challenges as well as aspects related to economy, artificial intelligence and social media.
The credit for maintaining highest standards of intellect and quality goes to our worthy scholars
and the editorial team. I wish them well!

Green Book 2020 I

 PAKISTAN ARMY

PATRON
CONTENTS
Security
Competition
between US &
China and Impact
on Regional
Strategic Balance of
South Asia
Dr Rizwana Karim Abbasi

Lieutenant General Sher Afgun, HI (M)

01
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
The Prospects and Panacea
of Peace in South Asia
Lt Gen Raza Muhammad Khan
HI (M), (Retd)

15
National Security & Emerging
Geopolitical Scenario:
Post Article 370 Obliteration
Farzana Shah

Major General Fida Hussain Malik, HI (M)

28
EDITORS
Brigadier Muhammad Farooq India’s
Lieutenant Colonel Asad Saeed
Annexation
ADVISORY BOARD of Kashmir:
Implications &
Lieutenant General Naeem Khalid Lodhi,
Hl (M) (Retired) Pakistan’s Options
Senator Mushahid
Brigadier Dr Naeem Haider, SI (M) Hussain
Dr Zafar Iqbal Cheema
President and Executive Director of
Strategic Vision Institute,

43
Islamabad, Pakistan

Dr Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

Dean FCS, National Defence University
Islamabad, Pakistan
India Pakistan Relations:
Dr Zulfqar Khan
Head of Department, Strategic Studies In Perspective
National Defence University, Ambassador Shamshad Ahmad Khan
Islamabad, Pakistan (Retd)
Dr Rizwana Karim Abbasi

50
National Defence University,
Islamabad, Pakistan

Dr Zafar Khan
National Defence University,
Islamabad, Pakistan Future War:
What Needs to be Done ?
Dr Mohammad Iftikhar Zaidi
Cranfield University, UK
Prof Dr Tughral Yamin

Professor Caroline Kennedy-Pipe

University of Loughborough, UK

Dr Peter Caddick Adams

Cranfield University, UK 64
II Green Book 2020
 PAKISTAN ARMY

From Desk of Editor-In-Chief

Chess board of geopolitics is perpetually
in motion and poses challenge to the nations
Cross Domain Pakistan’s across the globe for rapid adaptation. In
Deterrence Marine the fluctuating milieu, geo-political power
contestation amongst the power players is
The Pulwama Resources and ever increasing in intensity, lethality and
Attack: Limited the Untapped effects. Recent revolutions in military and
War & Nuclear Maritime Vista strategic thoughts, is third offset based on
Science, Technology and Innovations which
Implications Khalid Rahman
is exhibited in Cyber, Space and Information
Reestablishing Domains besides the traditional domains
Deterrence & of warfare – Land, Air and Sea. Concept of
Globalization has also brought onto us the
High Order War
Dr Maria Sultan 75 130 unprecedented flow of information which
is bane and boon juxtaposed. New players
like China & Russia are pushing the US
led International Liberal Order towards
Counter Non Traditional an era of more multipolar power centres.
Regionalism is gaining currency,Populism
Terrorism: Security sentiment is high and traditional power
The War of Challenges to centres are grappling to remain atop.
Narratives Pakistan Westphalian Nation States physical and
cognitive boundaries are at stake with the
Dr Sheharyar Khan Air Cdre Kashif Jamal new concepts of deterrence and state craft,
Khan where role of institutions and individuals
are overshadowing the states.
South Asia, due to its strategic location
and role in the world politics, is also under

93 138
a great impact of this rapid transformation
in the geo-politics and geo-economics. For
the last 20 years, Pakistan Armed Forces
with all other state institutions are fully
involved in combatting the threats to
Legal Changes Artificial Pakistan. Sunderji to CSD and CSD to Hybrid
Required for Intelligence: Warfare is a relatively fast transition in a
tiny period of 20 years; and this transition
Revival of Future Prospects has been tackled superbly by the Armed
The Pakistan in National & Forces of Pakistan through an equally paced
Economy Defence Related cross-domain response. Still there is a lot
on the horizon and we need to keep abreast
Ahmer Bilal Soofi Aspects physically and intellectually. Pak Army as an
Major Rana Haseeb institution, besides hard core training, also
Ahmed ventures for the intellectual grooming and
academic pursuits and Pakistan Army Green

100 151
Book is one of the projects in same direction.
The book used to be subject specific, then it
became event specific and at currently, it is
a multi-sphere compilation by scholars and
practitioners alike. Edition in your hands
Formalizing Impact of is First Book of the second decade of 21st
Pakistan’s Social Media Century, which contains a variety of topics
Informal on National on evolving international environment,
national security, competing strategies and
Economy Security latest scientific challenges. The authors have
Dr Zafar Mahmood Brigadier Dr Abdul immense experience at their hands and they
Rauf & Lieutenant have proffered some very good suggestions
Colonel Muhammad which can be incorporated by concerned
Sharjeel Zareen departments with more deliberations.
Knowledge and research reflected in this
book is important to be understood at all
114 166 levels as new eras and vistas are lying
open ahead of us. Theories of Thucydides,
Machiavelli, Clausewitz, Kahn still resonate,
yet at times are challenged through echoes
Political Artificial of Multi Domain Operations, Cross Domain
Deterrence, Artificial Intelligence, Non-
Governance and Intelligence: Contact Warfare, and host of other factors.
Hybrid War An Overview Pakistan is located at the cusp of three
Imtiaz Gul Major Ayaz Rafique ancient civilizations and carries the genetic
code. We need to actualize and tread on the
path leading us to excellence which certainly
goes through knowledge and its application,
as it is also a divine instruction to us.
َ َ َّ ْ ‫ْ أ‬
‫س َر ّبِ َك ال ِذي خل َق‬
ِ ‫اِق َر� ِب‬
109 180 ‘‘Read in the name of your Lord, Who created’’
(Al-Quran 96:1)

Green Book 2020 III

 PAKISTAN ARMY

IV Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Security Competition between

US & CHINA
and Impact on
Regional Strategic
Balance of South Asia
Dr Rizwana Karim Abbasi

Abstract
The global distribution of power is transmuting from Europe to Asia-Pacific and the steady fluctuations
between states within Asia are also being witnessed. The strategic quadrilateral relationship described
here, a growing systemic security dilemma, among states such as US, China, India, and Pakistan, is fairly
complicated. Given the anarchic nature of security dilemma, this study builds debate, how systemic
interaction of these states, their force structure, military modernizations, and future technological
advancements lead to shape the regional security order of broader Southern Asian region. The study
determines that competitive balancing of power system lead to create systemic security dilemma among
these states based on future possibilities for miscalculations and unresolvable problems of arms racing.
The security dilemma among these states can only be resolved through bilateral arrangements instead of
multilateral mechanisms.
Keywords: US, China, Regional Strategic Balance, South Asia Force Modernization, Systemic Security
Dilemma

Green Book 2020 1

 PAKISTAN ARMY

G
lobal distribution of power1 has taken US failed to recognize that Beijing
a shift to Asia as China’s economy is
gradually growing and currently its Gross holds potential to exert its own vision
Domestic Product (GDP) has exceeded that for the global order, with ability to
of the United States at the rate of purchasing power challenge the American-led global
parity. Similarly, many other countries of Asia are
economically transitioning thereby upholding system
moderately poised growth rates. Therefore, Asia
has become the epicenter of global political
economy. John Ikenberry suggested that the coming Clausewitz’s widely used concept that ‘war
phase of world order will be ‘the post-Western and is the continuation of politics by other means’10
post-hegemonic order having China at the Center’.2 and ‘states accrue power to fight war’11 and victory
Gram Allison maintains that as China gradually was the sole purpose of war was relevant in the
rises, the US in turn failed to recognize that Beijing traditional times. Although the innovation of
holds potential to exert its own vision for the global technologies such as nuclear weapons changed
order, with ability to challenge the American-led this concept and states began to rationalize that
global system.3 Indeed, China’s growing influence victory cannot be achieved in war domain, as bigger
and its Belt and Road initiative (BRI) has led to wars have become socially and politically costly.
transform Asia thereby making it more prominent This is why Bernard Brodie proposed, ‘the chief
in the global political affairs. Being that said, US purpose of our military establishment has been to
also holds its maritime supremacy in the region win wars. From now on its chief purpose must be
since 1970s and it seems that the US will endure to to avert them. It can have almost no other useful
perform a dominant role from a distance in order to purpose’.12 Although, probability of full-scale war
safeguard its political, economic, diplomatic and has reduced between rising and declining powers
military interests. In this context, US and India as Gram Allison rightly argues ‘war between US
have identified converging interests to constrain and China is not inevitable’13 but considering
rise of China while Pakistan is legitimizing the innovation of smarter technologies, smart, short
rise of China through the manifestation of China and precise wars yet remain relevant in parallel
Pakistan Economic Corridor that is the fulcrum of to deployment of other coercive means to achieve
China’s Belt and Road project. national goals.14 Presence of nuclear weapons may
When it comes to security dilemma, it is not get US and China or India and Pakistan into a
imperative to acknowledge the pioneering large-scale war but probability of security driven
contributions and/or expansion of the concept arms racing problem and possibility of smart strikes
of security dilemma by leading scholars such as and/ or limited confrontation cannot be ruled
Herbert Butterfield,4 John H. Herz,5 and Robert out. Therefore, this paper aims at assessing the
Jervis.6 For Jervis, one state’s increased security end means of power competition between United
often inadvertently threatens the security of other States and China raising the following questions:
state.7 John H. Herz argues that in order to maximize what are the persuasive reasons that lead to form
security, states are compelled to accumulate more competing trends between US and China? How
and more power to mitigate the impact of the might closely US-China evolving technologies are linked
of others. Such action reaction cycle in turn boils to vicious cycle of security and power competition
down the others more into insecurity compelling between India and Pakistan? How chain reaction
them to prepare for the disastrous outcomes.8 A of these states leads to have adversative or stable
growing systemic security dilemma, defined by strategic effects? The study aims to determine how
Charles Glaser – ‘a situation in which one state’s systemic interaction of these states shapes the
efforts to increase its own security reduces the broader regional security environment.
security of others’,9 between these states in Asia is
fairly complicated that provide them the incentive US Power Balance and Military
to play out various combination of strategies based Modernization in Asia
on cooperation, competition, and containment A set of determining actors have led to shift the
that in turn may raise the possibility of conflict US priorities from European continent and Middle
amongst them leading to challenge the stability of
East to Asia. One, the rapid economic growth of
the broader Asian region.
Asia has raised the geopolitical importance of this
region. Therefore, US has initiated its ‘rebalancing
The chief purpose of our military strategy’ – a ‘Pivot to Asia’15 that means it had
establishment has been to win wars. to rebalance economic, political, and security
From now on its chief purpose must be commitments to Asia.16 Asia-Pacific spans from the
Pacific to Indian Ocean that shapes up the global
to avert them. It can have almost no politics thereby becoming the engine of future
other useful purpose global economy. Two, the US aims at safeguarding
(Bernard Brodie) interests of its allies while managing regional

2 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

China is not only building infrastructure but also building regional economic
connectivity and appearing as a major problem solver for this region. Many lesser
economies of the East and Southeast Asia heavily rely on rising China. The US in turn
is pursuing a policy of selective /deep engagement to project its national interests with
states bilaterally

conflicts. For example, territorial disputes between borders in absence of serious local enemies), and
regional states, such as Northern Territories or growing wealth gradually turns the geo-economic
Southern Kuriles between Japan and Russia; and geopolitical environment to its favor. China is
Senkakus between Japan, China, and Taiwan; not only building infrastructure but also building
Takeshima between Korea and Japan; Paracels regional economic connectivity and appearing
between Vietnam and China; Spratlys which is as a major problem solver for this region. Many
being claimed by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei, lesser economies of the East and Southeast Asia
Malaysia, and the Philippines; and Preah Vihear heavily rely on rising China. The US in turn is
temple complex between Cambodia and Thailand; pursuing a policy of selective /deep engagement19
China’s assertion on the South and East China to project its national interests20 with states
Seas, unresolved issues between China and other bilaterally in this region. The US also enhances
Asian states are also driving features for the US its assertiveness through regional institutions.21
hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region. China’s These institutions include the East Asia Summit
construction of ports such as Gwadar-port in (EAS), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
Pakistan, Hambantota-port in Sri Lanka, Sittwe- (ASEAN – the most powerful platform) and the
port in Burma and Chittagong-port in Bangladesh Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.
are commercial ports but these developments in The multilateral institutions of Asia can strengthen
turn create security competition between the US the US alliance system in order to maximize their
and China. communal political objectives. In this context, the
former Defense Secretary, Ash Carter, heighted
US aspires to secure its own exports that the Asia-Pacific security set-up [is] a network
across the Pacific, while importing of bilateral, trilateral and multilateral linkages
quality Asian goods at a sustainable in which the US alliance system are decisively
entangled.22 In 2009, US joined the ASEAN treaty
level of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) resulting into
US-ASEAN summit, held in November 2009.
Three, US dominated the blue waters and
Although US unilateral withdrawal from Trans-
the skies of the Asia-Pacific for nearly seventy
Pacific Partnership (TPP) has weakened its
years. The US maintained supremacy in the
alliance cohesion in Asia but it still closely works
Indian Ocean Region during the Cold War period
with Philippines, South Korea and Japan. The US
in order to outweigh the expanding influence
holds its resilience in the Asia-Pacific through
of the USSR (now Russia) thereby maintaining
maintaining a consistent military force in the
broader footprint in this region to safeguard Sea
Lines of Communication (SLOCs) for oil and trade
routes from the Middles East. Thus, US aims at
safeguarding all the SLOCs that are pivotal to its
economy from Asia-Pacific to the Indian Ocean
region. Being that noted, the US Western border
stretches across the Pacific Ocean where the US
and its allies have shared economic interests to
East and Southeast Asia.17 For example, Japan,
South Korea, Australia, Singapore, Thailand,
Philippines, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are
part of this alliance system. US aims at navigating
complete water ways across choke points from
Hormuz to Malacca strait.
Four, the US aspires to secure its own exports
across the Pacific, while importing quality Asian
goods at a sustainable level. The US enjoyed its
political influence and economic hegemony in East
and Southeast Asia. China’s size, its continental A loaded Chinese ship prepares to depart from Gwadar
power potential18 (a state that enjoys secure land

Green Book 2020 3

 PAKISTAN ARMY

US holds its resilience in Asia-Pacific through maintaining a consistent military

force in the region, thereby introducing military reforms and modernization plans,
adopting new operational concepts and capabilities to changing character of
warfare that in turn creates a vicious cycle of arms competition among regional
states

region thereby introducing military reforms and inventories such as next generation long range
modernization plans, adopting new operational nuclear bombers28 (B21 bombers) between 2030s
concepts and capabilities to changing character of and 2040s.29 New guided nuclear gravity bomb
warfare that in turn creates a vicious cycle of arms such as B61-12 to arm its existing B-21 and the B-2
competition among regional states. at a cost of nearly $10 billion for estimated 480
bombs30 delivery of which is schedule in 2022.
US Military Modernization Plans for Production of modern cruise missiles with exalted
Asia-Pacific accuracy31 and range is underway. Latest Long
The US preserves stockpile of 4500 nuclear Range Standoff Missile (LRSO) that are capable
warheads, 1930 of which are retained in deployed of integration in B-2, B-52H and B-21 are being
form (1750 are strategic whereas 180 are non- secured worth US $25 billion for 1000 missiles.
strategic warheads). Around 2570 are reported to be On Land based Ballistic Missiles, the US
held in reserves.23 The US plans on spending $700 retains 441 deployed operational Minuteman III
billion to improve deterrent force over the next 25 ICBMs whereas additional 249 are kept in storage.32
years.24 It aims at capitalizing $350 billion25 on its The US Air Force is building a latest class of the
deterrent force and modernization of platforms to ICBM called Ground Based Strategic Deterrent
encounter twenty-first century challenges. (GBSD). On Ballistic Missile Submarines, US navy
preserves at least 14 SSBNs of Ohio class, out of
The US plans on spending  $700 which 8 are stationed in the Pacific while other 6 in
the Atlantic, equipped with Trident II (D5) SLBMs.
billion  to improve deterrent force Nearly 12 new SSBNs need to replace 14 Ohio-class
over the next 25 years SSBNs due to their better efficiency in refueling
process. The US is modernizing its Trident II D5
Currently, the US possesses 18-B2s and missiles.33 Total of 12 SSBNs are planned that
88B-52Hs out of which 16 B2s and 44 B52Hs are worth $98-103 billion including $10-15 billion
thought to be specified for nuclear role.26 The US dedicated to research and development.34 More
does not deploy more than 200-300 weapons at so, the US possesses 500 tactical B61 bombs of all
the bombers bases in peace times. The remaining version in its stockpile,35 180 of which are deployed
550-650 weapons are reported to be stored in at six diverse locations in the European Union that
central storage at Kirtland and New Mexico.27 The will be replaced with modern and efficient B61-12
US air force will continue to improve its bombers guided nuclear gravity bombs.

4 Green Book 2020

US naval power projection in Asia-Pacific
 PAKISTAN ARMY

Deployment of US Inventories in Asia Death of INF treaty will accelerate

Pacific: Currently, the US aims to deploy ready
military force to contain China’s growing influence a new arms race between the US and
in the East and South China Seas and this country’s China forcing China to procure counter
security threat to Japan. Currently, 377,000 US measures by increasing number of
civilian and military personnel are working across its warhead and delivery means to
the Asia-Pacific.36 The US navy has stationed
nuclear submarines to a secret location in the safeguard its own security interests in
region and it has more than 5000 troops deployed the region
in Guam37 along with the stationed bombers that
includes B-1 (carry only conventional mission),
B-2 and B-52. The US missiles defence comprised needs more nuclear capabilities at its disposal to
of land-based midcourse defence platforms close imagined credibility gap.44 President Trump
stationed in Alaska and California, directed to administration has clear plans to expand US
counter a limited ballistic missile attack originated nuclear weapon capabilities.45 Thus the US will
from Iran or North Korea and to counter Terminal continue to modernize its strategic nuclear triad
High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) technologies along with maintenance of non-strategic nuclear
that hold capability to intercept medium range weapons.
ballistic batteries, or the Aegis BMD systems, Trump Administration has announced to
and the Patriot PAC-3 batteries that are directed withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear
to intercept and hit short to intermediate range Forces (INF).46 The treaty was originated in 1987,
ballistic missiles. that led to restrain both the US and Russia from
developing nuclear and conventional ground-
US is also purchasing cyber weapon launched ballistic and cruise missiles that ranged
for deterrent effect and offensive cyber between 500-5,500 kilometers. The US evolving
security dilemma with China’s growing influence
war capabilities has encouraged US exit from the treaty.   Indeed
China is not a party to the INF treaty. This treaty
Notably, Japan and Taiwan both have acquired indeed outlaws US from procuring and stationing
PAC-3 missiles defence systems. The US and its more missiles and weapon systems in the Asian-
ally, South Korea are installing THAAD on South Pacific region. The death of this treaty will
Korean territory against the North Koreans. US at accelerate a new arms race between the US and
present has 28,500 troops from the air, land and China forcing China to procure counter measures
sea stationed in the territory of South Korea.38 by increasing number of its warhead and delivery
Additionally, US multiple squadrons of F-16 units means to safeguard its own security interests
and A-10 ground attack aircrafts are stationed in in the region. Consequently, this would create
South Korea.39 The US and South Korean militaries challenging vicious cycle of security dilemma
routinely conduct communal drills. Japan plans driven arms race.
to buy THAAD systems, and is aspiring to procure
the Aegis Ashore BMD system to be stationed China’s Rise and Regional Security
in Japan. US has about 50,000 troops deployed Environment
in Japan. Japan and US control the near seas of China’s economic growth rate, its evolving
China.40 The US Conventional Prompt Global military forces47 and maritime territorial conflicts
Strikes (CPGS) are capable of downing or disabling between China and its neighbors make China a
the anti-satellite capabilities or Area Access, Area prominent player in the region. Although, since the
Denial (A2/AD) capabilities of adversaries. The US 1990s, China and the US enjoyed smooth bilateral
has deployed advancing space and Anti Satellite relations to promote common economic and
capabilities in the region. US and Japan are commercial interests such as trade, maintenance
collectively developing Aegis BMD and SM-3 Block- of global financial system and stability of global
IIA interceptors against incoming medium and
intermediate range missiles. US is also purchasing
cyber weapon for deterrent effect and offensive US Conventional Prompt Global
cyber war capabilities. The platforms that are a Strikes (CPGS) are capable of
part of general modernization efforts,41 include
the fifth-generation F-35 fighter with increased
downing or disabling the anti-satellite
survivable capacity, latest stealthy and long range capabilities or Area Access/Area Denial
attack aircraft and the KC-46A new-generation (A2/AD) capabilities of adversaries.
tankers and cargo jets to enable proficient, and The US has deployed advancing space
fast-track long range positioning.42
and Anti Satellite capabilities in the
In the 2018 US Nuclear Posture Review region
(NPR),43 President Trump promoted that the US

Green Book 2020 5

 PAKISTAN ARMY

China has achieved the status China’s Evolving Technologies and

of second largest global economy, Countermeasures
minimizing the power equation with China maintains a comprehensive and small
US arsenals adhering to the policy of minimum
deterrence and policy of NFU54 based on defensive
posture. However, China is presently modernizing
economy. However, China’s growing assertiveness its deterrent forces in order to safeguard its vital
in the region has modified their view of each interests against the developments highlighted
other on various political and security matters. above. China’s latest number of warheads is 260
China has achieved the status of second largest that can be delivered via land based ballistic
global economy thereby minimizing the power missiles, aircraft, and nuclear powered submarines.
equation with the US. This power transition in Land and airbase platforms are reported to be
turn creates tough competition between the two. operational with possession of 190 warheads55
China considers that US military presence in Asia while others are stored in non-operational form.
creates a great threat to Chinese security48 and that China retains its arsenals at low level of alert
US contributes to intensify the tension between in peacetime, de-mated and stored separately
Taiwan and China.49 from warheads. China continues to ‘optimize its
More so, China’s socio-economic growth is nuclear force structure’, while improving strategic
increasingly dependent on sea trade- especially early warning systems, command and control
for energy imports. Nearly ‘89 per cent of China’s capabilities, missile preparation rapid reaction,
hydrocarbons are shipped through waterways.50 and survivability and protection capability.’56
Maritime transport in the Indian Ocean is limited to China possesses small stockpile of HEU and Plu
the smaller choke points such as Strait of Hormuz among P5 countries.57 It has ceased production
and the Strait of Malacca. Additional stake for of HEU between 1987 and 1989 and production of
China is first island chain. This chain flows from military plutonium was ceased in 1991.58 Therefore,
South Korea via Japan, Philippines and Malaysia instead of increasing in size, China is modernizing
to Indonesia. For Chinese, the US along with its its forces qualitatively.
Asian allies uses this first island chain as a tool
to impede China’s legitimacy. China believes that China sees ‘US military presence
construction of its ports is purely defensive and
commercial, based on its economic connectivity in Asia as destabilizing factor’ and
under its BRI project.51 its policy on South China Sea as ‘Cold
Thus, the PLA has adopted a series of War’ mentality
contingency plans in order to contain potential
military intervention in the region by the US. China For example, China stations a range of its
sees ‘US military presence in Asia as destabilizing Dongfeng (DF) type ground-based ballistic missile
factor’52 and its policy on South China Sea as systems, that are approximately two-thirds of its
‘Cold War mentality’.53 China in turn leads to overall inventory. China possesses 150 missiles
modernizing its technologies in order to safeguard of seven types and gradually modernizing its
its economic and security goals in the region. arsenals by replacing silos – based, liquid fueled
missiles with more survivable mobile solid-fueled
models. It is improving C2 systems for a large and
dispersed mobile missile forces. China reportedly
has 50-60 ICBMs. More so, China’s longest range
operational ICBMs include its silos-based, liquid
fueled and two-stage Dong Feng (DF 5A) and road
mobile solid fueled, three stage (SDF-31A). The
short range DF-31 ICBMs has replaced the aging
two staged DF-4 ballistic missiles. It is developing
new versions of the DF31B missiles with improved,
range accuracy and payload capability. Its ICBMs
have ranges of 5,500 km -1300 plus km that are the
DF-4, DF-5 and DF-31. Its DF-3A missiles range 3000
km. China’s DF-15 and DF-21 ballistic missiles have
ranges between 600 and 2,150 km correspondingly.
A nuclear-powered Type 094A Jin-class ballistic At least 44 of China’s long range missiles are
capable of carrying total of 64 warheads that can
missile submarine of Chinese PLA Navy
reach the target in the US mainland.

6 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

South China Sea is now a major point The latest and long range Tang-Class submarine is
in progress that may carry up to 24 SLBMs.
of confrontation; nearly $5.3 trillion of
maritime trade passes every year The PLAAF possess a limited quantity of
nuclear gravity bombs that can be launched by
the Hongza-6 (h-6) medium – range bomber and
also a short range combat aircraft. China possesses
China is building DF-41, the latest road- two types of cruise missiles such as CJ-10 and CJ-
mobile ICBM, which is capable of carrying 20. CJ-10 is a ground-based cruise missile with
multiple warheads. China is swapping its ICBMs estimated range of 1500 km and CJ-20 air launched
and the liquid fueled-silos DF-5A systems with cruise missile that is under development. It is
latest generation mobile, solid-fueled systems advancing air defense capabilities to contribute
- DF-31A.59 China reportedly stations latest road- to offensive and defensive operations, through
mobile ICBMs and builds advanced road-mobile providing strategic warning such as air attacks,
ICBMs with enhanced range. China is also working anti-air missile defense, air-born operations and
Multiple  Independently-targetable  Reentry strategic air lift.64 China is also pursuing missile
Vehicles  (MIRVs) technologies as recently it has defense capabilities.65 It has purchased 4-6
stationed MIRVed silo-based ICBMs to penetrate Russian S-400 systems in 2018. These interceptors
the US missile defence system. are capable of engaging targets at range of up to
Aircraft carriers, destroyers, and nuclear 400 km. There are no reports if China deploys
powered attack submarines60 and A2/AD systems its BMD systems, though it has the capability to
are part of its maritime power projection. Due to trace and engage BMD systems. China has tested
lesser threat to its land border,61 China’s major anti-satellite capabilities against the sun orbital
focus is on aerospace and naval modernization.62 objects. It has tested a nuclear capable hypersonic
The South China Sea now is a major point of missile delivery vehicle. China possesses extensive
confrontation. Nearly $5.3 trillion of maritime trade modern offensive cyber capabilities.
passes this sea every year. China has developed a China’s Deployment of Inventories in Asia-
modern fleet of its SSBN, equipped with SLBMs.’63 Pacific: In the backdrop of recent developments,
It is reported that China’s 094 Jin Class SSBN has China is trying to achieve nuclear efficiency, and
propelled it first patrol lately. China has acquired sufficiency. Major focus is maximization of power
three Jin-Class Submarines, each with potential to equation to raise its profile high in the global
carry at least 12 SLBMs. More so, China possesses affairs and maximize its security in maritime
two categories of SLBMs, such as JL-1 (with range domain. In addition to its perceived kinetic A2/AD
of 1000 km) and JL-2 (with range of 7000 plus km). capabilities, Beijing also appears to be pursuing
China is working on latest SSBN, that is 096 Type. preemptive options well before a conflict, with

Chinese aircraft carrier - Liaoning

Green Book 2020 7

 PAKISTAN ARMY

the aim of eroding the US hegemonic designs, free Anarchy leads to create fear and
mobility and operations in the Asia-pacific. fear in turn would generate uncertainty
Contention is that to maintain regional between the two; both the states do
hegemony, China needs to improve maritime
potential and deterrent force on the coast around not necessarily threaten each other,
the East and South China Sea. For Michael Beckley, but they are not sure about their future
China is not even close to match US military might moves
in Asia.66 China today lacks power potential
to dominate the East Asia Coast.67 China lacks
potential or military power to initiate surprise Analysis: Classical Systemic Security
attack, naval-blockade or strategic bombing
against Taiwan due to its extremely sophisticated Dilemma becomes Permanent
weapons systems, early warning systems and Both US and China are behaving under
platforms provided by the US. The geographical anarchy as defensive realist states without aiming
and technological indicators suggest that Japan at harming each other. Although US and China are
has a lasting A2/AD capability. Thus Japan can effectively moderating the security dilemma as
obstruct China’s Sea and Air domination in the both are working together on range of regional and
East China Sea.68 More so, US dominance in the global issues. For example, both jointly work on
East Asian region, its potential military bases, North Korean and Iranian nuclear ambitions, non-
and military superiority along with military proliferation, climate change and global economic
preparation of other regional states can refute growth, and mitigation of global financial crisis.
China Sea and air domination both in the Western Both share thought on global governance, promote
or Southern parts of the South China Sea. China military to military relations in an effort to mitigate
experiences formidable constraints and is unable mistrust and misperceptions. Despite this, the
to command major portions of its seas nearby.69 US-China relationship has evolved into one of the
Summing up, many of the measures adopted most complex and consequential that leads to
by the US are perceived by China as threating its intensify bilateral competition. This reflects the
own security when it comes to the vicious circle existence of classical security dilemma between
of security dilemma. It goes without saying that US and China and possibility of increased friction
China is gradually modernizing its defense forces on deep rooted divergences as highlighted above.
and improving its maritime strength. However, the security competition has driven the

two states into a spiral of action-reaction chain

Power competition between US and that may drive them into a situation that was
China creates an opportunity for India conceptualized by Butterfield.70 Anarchy leads
to create fear and fear in turn would generate
to bolster its economy and military uncertainty between the two. Both the states
power to raise its political profile/ do not necessarily threaten each other, but they
status are not sure about their future moves given the
rising economic influence of China spanning

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

India is cultivating its relationship The US considers India as an anchor or a so-

called stabilizer of Asian order.77 India is cultivating
with US to advance its parochial strategic its relationship with the US in order to strengthen
broader interests and to create footprint its own cushion to advance its parochial strategic
in global market to buy sensitive hi-tech broader interests and, more specifically, to create
footprint in the global market to buy sensitive
system and technologies hi-tech systems and technologies to energize its
wealth and power.78 To contain China’s rise, India
over Asia. To procure their economic gains, both has developed far reaching relations with the US
lead to accumulate more and more power. This and its regional alliances in the region. The US is
power competition such as US measures and one of the world’s largest arms exporters to India
China’s countermeasures will lead to aggravate at present. India conducts extensive military
their fears and doubts about one another without exercises with the US in recent times.79 It is due
institutionalizing any constructive mechanism to to the fact that the two states strategic interests
moderate severe security dilemma. The power gap converge in the Asia pacific region. The section
seems to continue to sustain leading to escalation below shows how India plays hedge against
of tension between the two major rivals. Although China through extensive modernization of its land
experts have rejected the notion of ‘Thucydides and naval forces that in turn exert pressure on
Trap’71 type of interaction between US and China72 Pakistan’s national security and regional balance.
but John Mearshimer’s proposition that conflict
is inevitable between a rising and established
power73 cannot be completely ruled out.
In this process, power competition between
US and China creates an opportunity for India to
bolster its economy and military power to raise
its political profile/ status. India, due to its geo-
political location has become critical actor to US
defense strategy in rebalancing towards Asia.
India’s modernization plans – a chain reaction
created by US and China – becomes one of the
crucial parts of the systemic security dilemma.
India’s Capability Based
Indian Defense Minister performs a hindu ritual during
Modernization and Hedge against handover ceremony of Rafale, in France
China
China and India had endured historic rivalry Indian Force Modernization
that goes back to Sino-Indian war of 1962. Despite The global estimates suggest that India
this rivalry, the two states’ economic volume is possesses 100-120 nuclear warheads of which 56
rising incredibly.74 Although China has resolved are housed in ground-based ballistic missiles.
many of its border conflict with its neighboring Nearly 48 of these warheads are grounded with
countries, it continues to have strategic rivalry with gravity bombs while another 14 are laced with
India. Beijing claims of northeast Indian state of sea based ballistic missiles.80 India’s functioning
Arunachal Pradesh while India does not recognize ground-based ballistic missiles are of different
Beijing’s jurisdiction over Aksai Chin Southwest ranges such as: Prithvi-II and Agni -I (shorter-
China. Both also have claim on a small part of range), Agni-II (the medium range-range ),
Kashmir that was ceded to China by Pakistan Agni-III (the intermediate range). The nuclear or
in the early 1960s.75 These differences remain conventionally laced Prithvi-II ranges between
inaudible for many years. India’s look/act East 250-350 km. Agni ballistic missile has possibly
policy has revived some of the issues. Currently, Prithvi’s nuclear delivery role. Agni (700-km), Agni
China exceeds India four to five percent in terms II (1000 km) Agni-III (3000km) had successful test
of its economy and defence.76 India certainly is in launch. Nuclear capable, Agni-1 (road mobile) has
serious competition with China in order to match a range of 700km. The short range of Agni variants
its wealth and power in the region. is deployed in western parts of India mainly

India may not have substantial existential threat from China given its growing
trade volume with China, although India’s hedge against China in favour of US seems
to create possibility for future confrontation between the two states

Green Book 2020 9

 PAKISTAN ARMY

targeting Pakistan. Agni-II has a range of 2000 There is intense and severe evolving
km. The Agni-III nuclear capable is 3200 km that security dilemma in the Asia-Pacific
is capable of hitting Shanghai which is possibly
deployed in extreme Northern part of India. between the US and China, China and
The Agni-IV underwent a launch in
India, India and Pakistan
2015 and would undergo further test before
entering services. Agni-II redesigned as Agni-IV Arihant Submarine. India may be working on Air-
incorporates advanced technological features, launched version for delivery by the Su-30MK1
including composite rocket engines, improved combat aircraft.82 India is currently working the
stage separation and a state of the art navigation indigenization of BMD system laced with Advanced
system. Agni-V/ ICBM was successfully launched in Air Defense (AAD) and Prithvi Air Defense (PAD)
2015 that allows India to target major Chinese cities respectively. India has procured S-400 air defense
including Beijing. India is currently developing system from Russian that is capable of engaging
MIRVs and more maneuverable warheads. the short and medium range ballistic and cruise
In air domain, the Indian Air Force has Mirage missiles. India is modernizing and its Mirage and
2000H a (multi-role combat aircraft) capable of Jaguar fighters and aims at procurement of nearly
carrying nuclear gravity bombs. India is busy 36 Rafale aircrafts to gain air supremacy.
in advancing nuclear capable sea and air based Hedging Policy and Deployment of
delivery means. Along with Mirage 2000 H, New Technologies: India’s Kiev-class and INS
India’s Jaguar IS/ IB fighter-bombers are the most Vikramaditya aircraft carriers have entered
significant part of its nuclear strike force that are examination in 2013. Reportedly, two of India’s
directed to China and Pakistan both. Vikrant-class aircraft carriers are aimed at entering
At sea,81 India is building SLBMs. Its SSBN, their service by 2018 and 2025 respectively.83 India
the Arihant, was first boarded for a sea trial in projects that in the backdrop of confrontation with
2014 and 2016. A second Arihant class nuclear China, it can operationalize sea denial strategies
submarine is under construction and development such as sea obstruction to scuttle China’s energy
of the third submarine is also underway. India is corridor in the IOR.84 India established the two
building another SSBN, the Aridhaman, and aims important bases such as Andaman and Nicobar
at including four SSBNs in its existing inventory Command in Port Blair aiming in order to advance
by 2020. The Arihant will carry K-15 SLBM with its dominance in the Strait of Malacca to block
range of 700 km. K-15 combined aspects of both China’s possible penetration of the IOR. This
cruise and ballistic missiles. The second class of important command has the ability to rapidly
SLBMs is K-4 that has the range of up to 3500 km deploy its military assets in the region to safeguard
to hit targets in Pakistan, China, and the Indian its interests.85 This raises questions for Pakistan
Ocean. The K-4 would eventually replace K-15 in and China both. Maximum of the $14 billion
arming the Arihant class submarines. India is also worth weapons and technology that India has
working on K-5, SLBM of 5000 km range. More so, procured from the US in the last decade leads to
the 350 km Danush missile system also belong to enhancing its footprint in the broader IOR and
a naval based Prithvi-II which in turn gives India on the Himalayan border against China.86 These
a rudimentary sea based nuclear strike capability. technologies include: C-130 Js, C17s, light howitzer
artillery, UAVs, P-8 maritime surveillance aircraft,
Cruise Missiles/BMDs/Air Defenses: India is jet engine, and aircraft carriers.
also working on Nirbhay subsonic land-launched
cruise missile that ranges between 700-1000 km India plans on acquiring six Scorpene-class
and is designed for launch from land, air, and diesel-electric submarines, from France and is
sea. India is furthering sea launched Nirbhay for building new destroyers, frigates and corvettes.87
Indo-US Defence Trade Treaty Initiative (DTTI) and
the two states’ agreements on logistics Support
would lead to increased operational competence
and interoperability of India allowing US aircraft
and ships to land and refuel on the Indian bases.
India deceptively claims that it perceives its
threat from China and Pakistan. Ambassador
Tasnim Aslam stated that, ‘India’s batteries are
stationed towards Pakistan and China, but its
projection is global. China is certainly a factor in
Indian military’s calculations but it is more about
prestige and power projection than maximization
of security against China.’88 Accumulation of
Nuclear-Missile Submarine - INS Arihant India’s material power and modernization of their

10 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

deterrent force and missile ranges clearly suggest Triangular relationship of US-China-
that their ambitions go beyond this region.’89 India has direct impact on South Asian
India may not have substantial existential security environment, compelling
threat from China given its growing trade volume
with China, although India’s hedge against China Pakistan towards modernization of its
in favor of US seems to create possibility for future own technologies
confrontation between the two states. While a
senior Pakistani former diplomat assesses no
possibility of war between India and China. He India. The triangular relationship of US-China-
also said, ‘India is displaying brinkmanship India has direct impact on South Asian security
to maximize its relevance, but clearly both the environment thereby compelling Pakistan towards
states do not want to go down to the path of war modernization of its own technologies. Although
or any confrontation as it would impact their the Western estimates suggest that Pakistan
economies.’90 Ambassador Tasneem holds a possesses, 140-150 warheads.93 Pakistan possesses
similar view that, ‘China has been accommodating a limited number of nuclear-capable delivery
India, as China does not want to be bogged down platforms some of which are assigned a dual role
on its economy.’91 For Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, ‘there is such as both nuclear and conventional.
a dim possibility of war between a larger China and
emerging India.’ He confirms that ‘India may not For Ground Operations, Pakistan possesses
be a military threat to a rising China as both have 6 land based ballistic missiles. Pakistan has
their own reasons. Although China will continue to developed short range missiles that are nuclear
maintain its strategic dominance.’92 capable and such as Hatf-IX (Nasr, 60-70 Km). Nasr
is designed to offset India’s Cold Start Doctrine
(CSD) under which India can launch limited
China is certainly a factor in Indian conventional strikes against Pakistan under the
military’s calculations but it is more nuclear overhang. The latest version of Nasr was
about prestige and power projection test fired in January this year in order to ensure
its ‘extreme in-flight maneuverability.’94 The road
than maximization of security against mobile Hatf-II (180km), Hatf-III (290km), and
China Hatf-IV (750km) are also the short-range ballistic
missiles. Pakistan also has got a liquid-fueled,
Possibility of war between China and India road mobile Hatf-V (Ghauri -1250 km) and the two
may seem less acute but Indo-China power stage, road mobile Hatf-VI (Shaheen-2 – 1500km).
competition has led to create server security Pakistan developed a medium range Shaheen-
dilemma between India and Pakistan. Indo- III ballistic missile variant capable of carrying
Pakistan rivalry is historically so complex that nuclear and conventional warheads against
has become more complicated than ever before Indian Agni-V. This missile carries a range of 2,750
in the backdrop of Indo-US alliance. India’s km95 that is capable of reaching targets throughout
forward military presence and its militarization of India including Andaman and Nicorbar Island.
the Indian Ocean enhances its power-projection In the air, Pakistan possesses F-16 A/B with
capabilities that in turn widens mistrust between range of 1600km. Later Mirage-5 combat aircraft
India and Pakistan. These trends determine was also assigned the nuclear role. Mirage-3 is
Pakistan’s security environment (discussed in the developed for test flights of nuclear equipped Ra’ad
subsequent section) when it comes to systemic - the air-launched cruise missile. ‘The Pakistani
security dilemma affecting Pakistan’s geo- Air Force is adding aerial refueling capability to
economic and security interests in the Southern the Mirage [in order to enhance] a nuclear strike
Asian region. mission.’96 Pakistan has developed JF–17 fighters
Pakistan’s Evolving Technologies and
Security Environment
India and Pakistan are historical arch rivals.
Pakistan perceives an existential threat from

Nasr is designed to offset India’s

Cold Start Doctrine under which India
can launch limited conventional strikes
against Pakistan under the nuclear
overhang

Green Book 2020 11

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Suspension of communications between India and Pakistan and a lack of arms

restraint arrangement makes it more difficult for states to moderate the security
dilemma as the likelihood and number of conflict scenarios have increased while
avenues for cooperation have decreased

to replace aging of Mirage 5 and Mirage 5s. Pakistan are cognizant of all developments and will ensue
might integrate Ra’ad – air launched cruise missile deterrence stability at all costs.’100 It seems this
on to JF thunder. At sea, Pakistan has established development may push Pakistan for production
Naval Strategic Forces Command to oversight the of more missiles systems in search of deterrence
second strike force. It is assumed that the sea- stability.
based force consists of nuclear-armed, submarine- The demise of the INF treaty between US
launched cruise missiles SLCMs-deployed on and Russia will fuel further arms race between
“Agosta-class” submarines or on surface ship. US and China, driving India and Pakistan to
Cruise Missiles and MIRVs Technologies: the equation. 101 Thus, it is safe to argue that the
There are two types of cruise missiles in Pakistan’s systemic security dilemma due to induction of
inventory: the land–based Babur (Hatf-7)97 that sophisticated technology is currently shaping the
also is a Naval variant. Second one is the air- strategic environment of the broader Southern
laucnhed, Ra’ad (Hatf-8). Pakistan lately has Asian region. In South Asia, it is the consequence
MIRVed Ababeel, a ballistic missile against of India’s power projection ambitions and its
Indian BMD system and currently working on its strategic alliance with the US and/or hedging
improved accuracy. policy against China that makes security dilemma
relatively complex and unresolvable, thereby
creating risks of war and miscalculations.
The emergence of new technologies
and weapons systems, such Conclusion and Findings
as BMD systems and MIRVs, sea-based The study concludes that there is intense and
systems, and short-range missiles, have servere evolving security dilemma in the Asia-
Pacific between the US and China, China and India,
made deterrence stability in South Asia India and Pakistan. This study draws plausible
increasingly fragile findings: One, evolving competition between the
US and China will endure due to their political,
Severity of Security Dilemma between strategic and economic differences in the Asia-
Pacific region. Two, China’s conflicts with Asian
India and Pakistan states and its claims on South or East China Sea are
Pakistan’s evolving security posture is affected not going to resolve in the near future. This in turn
by a few plausible strategic changes occurring
in the Southern Asian region. One, Indo-US
growing strategic partnership has strengthened
Pakistan’s security concerns. Two, the suspension
of communication between India and Pakistan
and a lack of arms restraint arrangement makes
it more difficult for states to moderate the security
dilemma as the likelihood and number of conflict
scenarios have increased while avenues for
cooperation have decreased. Three, the emergence
of new technologies and weapons systems, such
as  BMD  systems and  MIRVs,  sea-based systems,
and  short-range missiles, have made deterrence
stability in South Asia increasingly fragile.  Four,
India’s recent procurement of S-400 - a long range
multichannel air defence missile system (ADMS)
from Russia seems to have destabilizing impact in
the region. India has procured its five regiments,
out of which three regiments will be deployed
against Pakistan whereas two will be stationed
at border with China.98  For Pakistan, ‘Russian
S-400 missile system to India could destabilize Babur Cruise Missile
the region.’99 General Mazhar commented, ‘we

12 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

There are high chances of security 2. See G John Ikenberry, ‘The Rise of China and the Future of Liberal World Or-
der’, Lecture at Chatham House (7 May 2014): https://www.chathamhouse.

dilemma-driven arms racing trends, org/sites/default/files/field/field_document/20140507RiseofChina.pdf

3. See Grahamm Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape
dangers of risk-taking and the Thucydides Trap? (Boston: New York 2017).

likelihood of war 4. Herbert Buttterfield, History and Human Relations (London: Collins, 1951),
pp. 19-20.
5. John H. Herz, Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma, Vol. 2, No.
2 (Jan., 1950), pp. 157-180.
would aggravate conflicting relations between the 6. Robert Jervis, ‘Cooperation under the Security Dilemma,’ World Politics, Vol.
two states. Three, US still remains the predominant 30, No. 2 (January 1978), pp. 167-214, p. 169.

sea power and maintains dominance in the Asian 7. Ibid. p. 170.

waters. China in turn will continue to modernize 8. John H. Herz, Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma, p.157.

its own maritime power to preserve balance and 9. Charles Glaser, ‘Will China’s Rise lead to War? Why Realism Does Not Mean
Pessimism’, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90, No. 2 (March/April 2011), p.82.
moderate security threats. Similarly, the US-
10. See Carl Von Clausewitz, On War (New York: E.P. Dutton and Co., LTD.,
China power balance could lead to escalation of 1940).
tension and conflicts thus having serious stability 11. Ibid.
implications. This shifting distribution of power 12. Bernard Brodie ed. Absolute Weapons: Atomic Power and World Order (New
leads to more worries, uncertainty, and renewed York, Harcourt, Brace, 1946), 76.

chances for accidents and miscalculations. For 13. See Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thu-
cydides’ Trap? (Boston: New York 2017).
John Ikenberry in the backdrop of this tense
14. Vice Admiral Khan Hasham and Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, while speaking at an
competitive evolving balance of power system, the international conference on Strategic Coercion: Global Dynamics and South
realist guided anarchy will continue to triumph.102 Asia, conducted by Center for Peace, Security and Development Studies
(Karachi, 12 March 2019).
He further confirms that there are high chances 15. See Oliver Turner, ‘China, India and the US Rebalance to the Asia Pacific:
of security dilemma-driven arms racing trends, The Geopolitics of Rising Identities’, Geopolitics Vol. 21, Issue 4 (2016).
dangers of risk-taking, and the likelihood of war.103 16. Phillip C. Saunders, ‘The Rebalance to Asia: U.S.-China Relations and Re-
Four, considering Sino-Indian trade volume, it gional Security’, National Defence University, INSS, August 2013.

seems that India is working on not threat-centric, 17. Michael Berkley, ‘The Emerging Military Balance in East Asia,’ International
Security, Vol.42, No.02 (Fall, 2017), p. 78.
but capability-based defense modernization to 18. Evan Braden Montgomery, ‘Competitive Strategies against Continental Pow-
project its supremacy in Asia as one of the emerging er: The Geopolitics of Sino-Indian-American Relations’, Journal of Strategic
Studies, Vol.36, No.1 (2013), p. 81.
players. Thus, India’s military modernization in
turn increases Pakistan’s insecurities. Strategic 19. Charles Glaser,’ A U.S.-China Grand Bargain,’ International Security, Vol. 39,
No. 4 (Spring 2015), p. 54.
chain of these states could have destabilizing and 20. See Victor D. Cha, Powerplay: The Origins of American Alliance System in
irreversible effects. Asia (Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2016).
21. ‘The Evolving US-Asia Alliance Network,’ Center on International Cooperation
This vicious cycle of arms race would worsen (26 Oct., 2016): http://cic.nyu.edu/news_commentary/evolving-us-asia-alli-
in the near future if not amicably controlled. ance-network

Therefore, it is imperative that both the US and 22. Ibid.

China initiate bilateral confidence building 23. Hans M. Kristensen, ‘US Nuclear Forces’, in SIPRI Year Book 2017: Arma-
ments, Disarmament and International Security (Oxford: Oxford University
measures and institutionalize an inclusive Press, 2017), pp. 616-618.
bilateral arms control regime in order to promote 24. Quoted in Brian Kalman, Edwin Watson and South Front, ‘The U.S. Nuclear
a policy of accommodation thereby avoiding Deterrent Triad. Can the U.S. Afford to Modernize it?’, Centre for Research
on Globalization (16 March 2016): https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-u-s-nu-
miscalculations or confrontations in Asia. Thus, clear-deterrent-triad-can-the-u-s-afford-to-modernize-it/5516253

India and Pakistan in parallel should resume 25. Hans M. Kristensen, ‘US Nuclear Forces’, SIPRI YearBook 2017, p. 611.
bilateral dialogue and create a common ground 26. Ibid., p. 614.
to institutionalize restraint regimes in order to 27. Ibid.
control growing arms race and minimize risks 28. Ibid.
of accidental wars. It is vital that the two states 29. Ibid.
implement an early restraint regime104 to achieve 30. Ibid.
regional strategic stability and peace. 31. Ibid.
32. Ibid. p. 615.
Dr Rizwana Karim Abbasi is presently an
33. Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, ‘United States nuclear forces,
Associate Professor in the Department of 2017’, Journal of Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, Volume 73, Issue 1, 2017.
International Relations at National University 34. See, ‘The U.S. Nuclear Arsenal: A Dangerous Vestige of the Cold War,’ Union
of Modern Languages (NUML), Islamabad. of Concerned Scientists, February 2014: https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/de-
fault/files/legacy/assets/documents/nwgs/nuclear-arsenal-vestige-cold-war.
She is a PhD from University of Leicester, UK pdf
and specializes in International Security and 35. Ibid. p. 3.
Nuclear Non-proliferation 36. ‘The US has a Massive military presence in the Asia Pacific,’ Agence
France-Presse, p. 2:https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-08-11/us-has-massive-
Notes military-presence-asia-pacific-heres-what-you-need-know-about-it

1. See Xenia Wickett, John Nilsson-Wright and Tim Summers, ‘The Asia-Pacific 37. ‘Asia: 2016 Index of US Military Strength’, http://index.heritage.org/mili-
Power Balance Beyond the US–China Narrative’, Chatham House (Septem- tary/2015/chapter/op-environment/asia/
ber 2015): https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/publica- 38. ‘The US has a Massive military presence in the Asia Pacific,’ p. 2.
tions/research/20150924AsiaPacificWickettNilssonWrightSummersFinal.pdf

Green Book 2020 13

 PAKISTAN ARMY

39 Ibid. Washington (Jul 2018).

40. Michael Berkley, ‘The Emerging Military Balance in East Asia,’ p. 81. 73. See John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York:
W.W. Norton, 2001).
41 See Quadrennial Review, US Department of Defense, (March, 2014), p.
36:http://archive.defense.gov/pubs/2014_Quadrennial_Defense_Review.pdf 74. For interesting analysis on increasing trade volume between India and
China,see Rong Wang and Cuiping Zhu, Annual Report on the Development
42. Ibid., p. 28. of International Relations in the Indian Ocean Region (2016), (eds.) (Berlin:
43. Ibid. Springer, 2016), 53-77.

44. Ashley Feinberg, ‘Exclusive: Here Is A Draft Of Trump’s Nuclear Review,’ 75. See Francine R. Frankel, ‘The Breakout of China-India Strategic Rivalry and
Huffpost  (11 Jan 2018):https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-nucle- the Indian Ocean,’ Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 64, No. 2, (Spring/
ar-posture-review-2018_us_5a4d4773e4b06d1621bce4c5 Summer, 2011), pp. 1-17.

45. Kingston Reif, ‘Trump Budget Boosts Nuclear Efforts,’ Arm Contro, Today, 76. Mahan Malik, Balancing Act: ‘The China-India-US Triangle’, World Affairs
April 2019: https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-04/news/trump-bud- (Spring 2016), p. 2
get-boosts-nuclear-efforts 77. Lisa Curtis, ‘The Triangle Dynamic in Asia: The US, India, and China,’ The
46. ‘Trump says US will withdraw from nuclear arms treaty with Russia’, The Heritage Foundation, Paper No. 1017, (Washington D.C., 2007),https://www.
Guardian (21 Oct 2018): https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/20/ heritage.org/asia/report/the-triangular-dynamic-asia-the-us-india-and-china.
trump-us-nuclear-arms-treaty-russia 78. Ibid. pp. 1-4.
47. See Ahley J. Tellis, Alsion Szalwinski and Michael Wills, Strategic Asia 2017- 79. Rajat Pandit, ‘U.S. Pips Russia as Tope Arms Supplier to India,’ The Times
18: Power, Ideas and Military Strategy in the Asia-Pacific (Washington: Na- of India (13 August 2014): https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/US-pips-
tional Bureau of Asian Research, 2017). Russia-as-top-arms-supplier-to-India/articleshow/40142455.cms.
48. Zhao Tong, China’s strategic Environment and Doctrine’, in Robert Einhorn 80. Shannon N. Kile and Hans M. Kristensen, ‘Indian nuclear forces’, in SIPRI
and W. P. S. Sidhu (eds.), The Strategic: Linking Pakistan, India, China and Yearbook 2017 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017), pp. 641-646.
US, Brookings Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Series Paper No. 14
(March, 2017), p. 17. 81. Yogesh Johsi and Frank O’ Donnell, ‘India’s Evolving Nuclear Force and its
Implications for U.S. Strategy in the Asia-Pacific’, Strategic Studies Institute,
49. See Michael D. Swaine, ‎Andrew N. D. Yang, ‎Evan S. Medeiros, Assessing US Army War College (June 2016), pp.3-11.
the Threat: The Chinese Military and Taiwan’s Security (Washington, Carne-
gie Endowment for International Peace, 2007). 82. Ibid. 3-11.
50. Quoted in, Jan Hornat, ‘The power Triangle in the Indian Ocean: China, India 83. Jan Hornat, ‘The power Triangle in the Indian Ocean,’ p. 8.
and the United States’ Cambridge Review of International Affairs, vol. 29,
Issue, 2 (2016), p. 5. 84. Shahank Joshi, ‘Why India is becoming warier of China, Current History, 735,
156-161.
51. Alek Chance, ‘The Belt and Road Initiative and the Future of Globalization,’
The Diplomat (31 October 2017): https://thediplomat.com/2017/10/the-belt- 85. Quoted in Jan Hornat, ‘The power Triangle in the Indian Ocean’, p. 5.
and-road-initiative-and-the-future-of-globalization/. 86. Mahan Malik, ‘Balancing Act: The China-India-US Triangle,’ p. 3.
52. Quoted in Kristien Bergerson, ‘China’s Efforts to Counter U.S. Forward Pres- 87. Siddhart Srivastava, ‘India’s nuclear Submarine plan surfaces,’ Asia Times
ence in the Asia Pacific’, p. 4. (20 February 2009).
53. Justyna Szczudlik, ‘China’s Response to United States’ Asia-Pacific Strate- 88. Authors interview with a Pakistani Ambassador, Tasneem Aslam, who was
gy’, PISM policy paper, no.41 (October 2012), p.5: https://www.scribd.com/ a career diplomat and formerly served as the spokesperson of Ministry of
document/165049932/China-Response-to-US-Strategy Foreign Affairs (Islamabad, February 2019).
54. For interesting analysis on Chinese nuclear policy, see Jeffrey Lewis, The 89. Anonymous, Authors Interview with a high profile military officer who wished
Minimum Means of Reprisal: China’s Search for Security in the Nuclear Age to remain anonymous (Rawalpindi, February 2019).
(Cambridge: MIT Press, 2007).
90. Authors interview with Zamir Akram who is a former Ambassador of Pakistan
55. Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, ‘Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2016,’ and currently advisor to the Strategic Plans Division (Islamabad, February
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (July 2016): https://thebulletin.org/2016/july/ 2019).
chinese-nuclear-forces-20169627.
91. Authors Interview with Tasneem Aslam.
56. Shanon N Kile and Hans M Kristensen, ‘Chinese Nuclear Force’, in SIPRI
Year Book (2017). p.637. 92. Authors interview with Zafar Nawaz Jaspal who is Professor at Quaid-i-Azam
University (Islamabad, February 2019).
57. Ibid.
93. Hans M. Kristensen, Robert S. Norris, and Julia Diamond, ‘Pakistani Nuclear
58. Ibid. Force, 2018,’ Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (2018), Vol. 74, No. 5, pp. 348-358,
59. See Eric Gomez, Meet the DF-31AG and the DF-26: The Big Ballistic Mis- p. 348.
siles at China’s Military Anniversary Parade’ The Diplomat (08 August 2017): 94. ‘Pakistan conducts another successful test launch of ballistic missile Nasr’
https://thediplomat.com/2017/08/meet-the-df-31ag-and-the-df-26-the-big- Dawn (31 January 2019): https://www.dawn.com/news/1461016
ballistic-missiles-at-chinas-military-anniversary-parade/.
95. ISPR Press Release, No PR-61/2015-ISPR, March 09, 2015: https://www.
60. Ronald O’Rourke, ‘China Naval Modernization: Implications for US Capabil- ispr.gov.pk/press-release-detail.php?id=2804
ities – Background and Issues for Congress’. Congressional Research Ser-
vice, (3 Feb 2011), pp. 24-29. 96. Ibid. p. 349.
61. Robert D Kaplan, Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American 97. Pakistan’s ISPR Press release: No PR-10/2017-ISPR, Rawalpindi - January
Power (New York: Random House 201), p. 282. 09, 2017: https://www.ispr.gov.pk/press-release-detail.php?id=3672
62. Evan Braden Montgomery, ‘Competitive Strategies against Continental Pow- 98. Pranab Dhal Samanta, ‘Russian S-400 Triumf gives India an edge
er’, p. 84 against Pakistan, China,’ The Economic Times, (13 Jul. 2018):  
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/russian-s-400-gives-in-
63. Robert Einhorn and W. P. S. Sidhu (eds.), The Strategic: Linking Pakistan, dia-an-edge-against-pakistan-china/articleshow/54893457.cms
India, China and US, Brookings Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Series
Paper No. 14 (March 2017), p. 4. 99. ‘Russia’s Sale of S-400 Missiles to India may destabilize Region,’ Dawn (20
October 2018).
64. Oriana Skylar and Michael S Chase, ‘Long-Term Competition Between the
United States and China in Military Aviation’, SITC Research Briefs, Series 9 100. Author’s interview with former Director General of Pakistan Strategic Plans
(2017), p. 2. Division.
65. Doug Tsuruoka, ‘China Pursuing Missiles Defenses’, Asia Times, (19 Jan. 101. Rizwana Abbasi, ‘Arms Control in Crisis’, The Geopolitics, 06 April 2019:
2018): https://thegeopolitics.com/arms-control-in-crisis/
66. Ibid. p. 81. 102. G. John Ikenberry, ‘From Hegemony to the Balance of Power: The Rise of
China and American Grand Strategy in East Asia’, International Journal of
67. Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell, ‘China’s Overstretched Military’, Korean Unification Studies Vol. 23, No. 2, (2014), pp. 41-63, p. 53.
Washington Quarterly, vo.35, No.4 (Fall 2012).
103. Ibid.
68. Michael Berkley, ‘The Emerging Military Balance in East Asia,’ p. 98.
104. Pakistan did propose India a nuclear restraint regime (NRR) in 1999 but India
69. See more in Michael Berkley, ‘The Emerging Military Balance in East Asia,’ categorically refused to accept. 
pp. 104-108.
70. Butterfield, History and Human Relations, pp.19-22
71. Graham Allison, the Thucydides Trap’, Foreign Policy (June 9, 2017).
72. Face to face conversation of one of the authors with the U.S. officials in

14 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY
THE PROSPECTS
AND
PANACEA OF PEACE
IN
SOUTH ASIA

Lt Gen Raza Muhammad Khan HI (M), (Retd)

Abstract
The primary perils of peace in South Asia emanate from the sub-continental milieu, the mayhem in
Afghanistan, the association of state sponsored terrorism with these two factors, the threats to the CPEC
and the invasion of digital domains. The region is also unstable since SAARC is dysfunctional due to
Indian machinations and the absence of any other, well-anchored regional security framework that is able
to arbitrate and mitigate rising tensions or resolve differences among neighbours. The Indian decision to
disturb the status quo in IOJK in August 2019 is fraught with many hazards that needs adroit management
through a bold, all-inclusive and adequately resourced Pakistani policy on the subject; with emphasis on
external measures, to pressurize India to change its policies. For this purpose, among other measures, a
domestic and international Kashmir Fund should be constituted, which could be crowd sourced, like the
CJP’s and the PM’s ‘ dam fund’, with tax incentives for donations. Corporate businesses, the world over
have built-in arbitration, persuasion and mediation mechanisms, through which they settle disputes. There
is no reason why peace cannot return to the sub-continent through these means. Pakistan’s vulnerability
has amplified due to the protracted conflict in Afghanistan. The ongoing Afghan peace process must
therefore follow a steady course, for a genuine and lasting peace in Asia. Foreign forces cannot stay in
Afghanistan forever and any political dispensation that runs contrary to the interests of Pakistan will
miscarry. That is a historic reality that the West can ignore at its own peril. The US ‘rebalancing’ to Asia to
contain China’s rise is stoking instability, and encouraging India and others to press their own agendas
that include opposition to the CPEC. This is detrimental to peace and development in Eurasia. However
the Pakistani people have exhibited resilience to make the CPEC a success. For this reason alone, Asian
governments need to partner with Pakistan to shelter it from the many foreign proxies of chaos. The
government must spread awareness about the disinformation dangers that we are facing, through well-
structured and elaborate, information and media security policies that caters to the vicissitudes of our
digital domain. There is no better panacea for aligning the hopes and prospects of a lasting peace and
harmony in South Asia and Pakistan, than adopting the key recommendations outlined in this treatise.
Keywords: Security Environment, Kashmir Policy, Afghan Policy, Defense of CPEC, Security of Digital
Domain, Media Policy, Recommendations and Conclusions

Green Book 2020 15

 PAKISTAN ARMY

W
ith home to approximately 2 billion
people or about one fourth of the
world’s population, South Asia
is the most densely populated
geographical region in the world.
Regrettably, the range of traditional threats to
peace, stability and security in this region is also
very broad and has expanded immensely as a
consequence of the Indian actions in August, to
illegally annex and divide, the part of Kashmir
occupied by it. South Asia is also unstable since
SAARC is dysfunctional due to Indian machinations
and the absence of any other, well-anchored
regional security framework that is able to arbitrate
and mitigate rising tensions or resolve contentious There are over two million registered and another
issues among neighbours, through preventive one million unregistered refugees in Pakistan
diplomacy. According to one UNHCR estimate, this
region has the second largest number of people in nothing can escape exaggeration, distortion and
distress. They include over two million registered fabrication to manipulate perceptions on crucial
and another one million unregistered refugees in issues of peace and security, denoted above. The
Pakistan, since the last three decades. This has fear of these threats has often caused a visible
made Pakistan the most vulnerable country to societal and international response and suspicion
mass movement, militants, trafficking of drugs that could lead, as in the past, to reactions that are
and arms from Afghanistan, where 43 countries disproportionate to the magnitude of such threats.
led by the US, have been involved in fighting for
The linkages of these challenges and threats
nearly two decades, but peace has not returned to
are as important as their dynamics and the reach
that country as yet.
of some is such that they can defeat most peace
efforts.
With the proliferation of the
internet, nowadays, nothing can Scope and Purpose of the Treatise
escape exaggeration, distortion and While peace in South Asia is held hostage
fabrication to manipulate perceptions by many of the preceding factors, this treatise
shall focus mainly on the principal dangers
on crucial issues of peace and that emanate from the environment in the sub-
security continent; the turmoil in Afghanistan, the linkage
of state sponsored terrorism with these two
The US efforts to contain China’s rise is also factors, the associated threats to the CPEC and
stoking instability, and encouraging India and the invasion of our digital domain, with a view to
others to press their own agendas, to the detriment proffer conclusions and recommendations, that
of regional and global peace. This includes might align the hopes and prospects of a lasting
opposition to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative peace in the Region.
(BRI), of which the CPEC is a vital component and
which can fetch unprecedented prosperity and Standoff in the Sub-Continent
peace dividends for Asia and indirect benefits The nuclear flash point of Kashmir blinked
to many of the 32 littoral states of the Afro-Asian dangerously after the carefully stage-managed
(Indian) Ocean. All this is triggering a new cold drama at Pulwama in IOJK, the Indian aggression
war scenario in the region. at Balakot in February and the annexation of
In the past, vigilance worked as a simple IOJK by India in August, but lamentably, the
defense against propaganda, on the premise world did not bother enough about these
that the media was trustworthy and reliable. perilous events. Due to Modi’s re-election, all
With the proliferation of the internet, nowadays, South Asian countries, but mainly Pakistan, have
now to contend with an India where there is an
upsurge in the exhibition of fascism, xenophobic-
US efforts to contain China’s nationalism, militarism, egoism, bigotry, religion
rise is also stoking instability, and and caste divisions, disregard for human rights,
an arrogant and illogical approach of rejecting
encouraging India and others to press dialogue and mediation on contentious issues.
their own agendas, to the detriment of This outlook is a serious threat to peace, as may
regional and global peace be the receding voices in India, in support of
averting war with Pakistan, due to the ubiquitous

16 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Clear and present dangers of ethnic cleansing and

Increased proliferation of WMDs, mass killings in IOJK, have also been warned by
due to Indo-US nuclear deal and the ‘Genocide Watch’. The continuous violation of
the RSS hold over Indian nuclear the LoC by India and targeting innocent civilians
weapons and its armed forces, should with cluster ammunition in Azad Kashmir has
concomitantly made the situation ‘explosive’, as
particularly alarm all Asian nations recently observed by US President Trump, 2 but
about nuclear security India continues to deny this and blames Pakistan
for the indigenous freedom movement in IOJK and
elsewhere. It is also exploiting the leverage of its
hold and influence of the RSS over the BJP regime.
upper riparian status, to denude Pakistan of its
Increased proliferation of WMDs, due to Indo-US
fair share of water from the Indus, Chenab and the
nuclear deal and the RSS hold over Indian nuclear
Jhelum rivers. Indian leaders have spoken of the
weapons and its armed forces, should particularly
possibility of more ‘surgical strikes’, disregarding
alarm all Asian nations about nuclear security.
the hazards of conflict escalation. Such a scenario
Mr Modi’s official and on the record statements
has the potential to endanger peace in the sub-
about fomenting terror in Balochistan and Gilgit
continent like never before.
Baltistan, his overt threats about the use of nuclear
weapons against Pakistan in February, Indian Indian State Sponsored Terrorism
adventures and proliferation in space and acute
politicization of the Indian armed forces for political India is now using both covert and overt
gains are indeed very ominous events, which have means to destabilize and terrorize Pakistan, albeit
seriously disturbed the strategic balance in the at a visibly bigger scale and with greater impunity.
sub-continent and gravely endangered global, as Though backing terrorists in Balochistan by India
well as Asian peace and tranquility. Exploitation has no locus standi, they are doing this to equate
of Pakistan’s economic susceptibilities1, internal it with the issue of IOJK, knowing full well that the
security, political vulnerabilities, along with efforts former is a gross violation of UN Charter and its
at Pakistan’s international isolation, defeating many resolutions against terrorism, while the latter
its policies in Afghanistan and making it difficult has been legitimized by scores of UNSC resolutions.
for it to manage internal political balance may Using Afghan refugees, RAW operatives, Pakistani
continue. This policy seems to have worked for Taliban and Baloch dissidents, India has unleashed
India for some time, causing euphoria among the waves of terror all over Pakistan. As confessed
rulers in Delhi but Pakistan has managed to thwart by Commander Kulbhushan Jadhav, the Indian
it, so far. Pakistan’s goodwill gesture to open the government has established terror networks for
Kartarpur Corridor has also been overshadowed by such activities in other neighbouring countries.
the recent events in IOJK. Sabotaging the economic growth in Pakistan,
disrupting the CPEC, diverting attention from IOJK
It is also exploiting the leverage of and embroiling Pakistani armed forces in internal
security are strategic Indian objectives. This is a
its upper riparian status, to denude unique and explicit example of blatant misuse
Pakistan of its fair share of water from of the land of many countries for international
the Indus, Chenab and the Jhelum
rivers
As a reaction to the abrogation of Articles 370
and 35 A, of the Indian constitution, IOJK is likely
to witness the worst incidents of human rights
violations. The UNSC met on the matter, after
50 years, on 16 August, and China’s UN envoy
stated afterwards that the ‘UNSC members had
serious concerns about the situation, including
the human rights situation and that it was the
general view of members that parties concerned
should refrain from taking any unilateral action
that might further aggravate the tension there’.
Despite the expression of concern on the matter
by the UN, US, EU, OIC, Amnesty International
and other regional and global humanitarian As confessed by Commander Kulbhushan Jadhav, the
organizations, India may increase the barbaric
use of pallet guns to silence the protestors on its Indian government has established terror networks for
side of the LOC, after the curfew is lifted in IOJK. such activities in other neighbouring countries

Green Book 2020 17

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Pakistan’s foreign policy objectives This framework should guarantee the orderly and
on Afghanistan are principled and responsible transition of the security situation and
detail an agreement on a future inclusive political
unambiguous. It therefore supports arrangement acceptable to all Afghans. All parties
a peaceful, prosperous and friendly to the conflict were also ‘encouraged to take steps
Afghanistan to reduce violence leading to a comprehensive and
permanent ceasefire that starts with intra-Afghan
negotiations’3. This was indeed an encouraging
terrorism, yet India raises this bogey at worldwide development that was reinforced by the visit of the
forums and ironically benefits from it. Pakistani prime minister and COAS to the United
States in July 2019. President Trump’s directive to
The Afghan Peace Process the US State Department to ‘end the endless wars’;
By now, the US seems to have learnt that in the same month looked like a positive change,
democracies, including the one in Afghanistan but this was diluted by his abrupt decision to
are built on the ‘free’ will of the people and end talks with the Afghan Taliban in September.
that Hobbesian approaches didn’t succeed in Withdrawing US troops from Afghanistan was one
Afghanistan even when it was a monarchy, of President Trump’s major campaign promises.
so reliance on public support to government This could lead to an escalation of the conflict
decisions is even more important for the peace in Afghanistan that may neither be in Trump’s
process there. Pakistan’s foreign policy objectives political, US strategic or regional interests.
on Afghanistan are principled and unambiguous. Pakistani efforts for the continuation of the Afghan
It therefore supports a peaceful, prosperous and Peace process that was started by Mr. Zalmay
friendly Afghanistan. For this, we have paid a cost Khalil Zad, and the Afghan Taliban’s similar
that’s heavier than the one born by all the states desire, expressed during their visit to Islamabad in
which form part of coalition forces in Afghanistan.
While Pakistan must support every effort that Sabotaging the economic growth
can end the war in Afghanistan, it can- not do
any more than what it has already done. The fact in Pakistan, disrupting the CPEC,
is that this has also been Pakistan’s longest war, diverting attention from IOJK and
wherein, its losses in blood and treasure surpass embroiling Pakistani armed forces
the combined cost of its many wars with India.
But the joint statement by the Governments of
in internal security are the strategic
the United States, Russia, Pakistan, and China Indian objectives
on the occasion of the Four-Party Meeting on the
Afghan Peace Process, held in Beijing on July October, indicates that the possibility of peace may
10 – 11, 2019, has raised the first real hopes for not be entirely lost. However, unless addressed, all
peace in Afghanistan. The four sides called on all hopes and initiatives of peace can be obstructed
stake holders to ‘grasp the opportunity for peace by the following nine dilemmas: First; the
and immediately start intra-Afghan negotiations ludicrous Afghan claims on Pakistani territory
between the Taliban, Afghan government, and that hinders border management, promotes
other Afghans. They re-affirmed negotiations trans-border terrorist threats and has caused
should be “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned” and horrendous losses and miseries to the people of
further agreed that these negotiations should both countries. Second; over 2 million Afghan
produce a peace framework as soon as possible. refugees remain in various parts of Pakistan who
seem to have been forgotten by the world and their
own rulers. Third; in the past, the international
community tried to help rebuild Afghanistan,
mostly by replacing local capacity rather than
strengthening it. This does not seems to have
worked and one is concerned about the danger of
a flare up of a humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan
when the US and NATO withdrawal gathers further
momentum in the coming years. Four; even if
peace returns to Afghanistan as a consequence of
such parleys, it may be short lived unless verifiable
and implementable mechanisms are put in place
for the purpose. Five; post conflict disarming,
demobilization and reintegration of former
Four-Party Meeting on the Afghan Peace Process, held in combatants will be an arduous task, requiring
international help. Six; the issue of the economic
Beijing (10 - 11 July, 2019)
support of Afghanistan and the sustenance of its

18 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Bomb Blast in Kabul on 17 August, 2019

armed forces may be the most crucial factor for Japan and others; have been prompted by the CPEC
the stability of Afghanistan and the region. Seven; and actively sponsored by India. Similarly, Indian
the world may forget to compensate Pakistan for investments in the Iranian port of Chahbahar are
its unparalleled sacrifices including the cost of intended to contest with the growth of Gwadar
sheltering millions of Afghan refugees, despite port. China and Pakistan have rightly not shown
its own scanty means. Eight; that there are large any aversion to the competition, though India has
ungoverned areas in Afghanistan, from where IS, already been sponsoring terrorism in the region to
TTP and terrorists are posing threats to Pakistan disrupt CPEC. Of greater concern are the numerous
and Afghanistan’s other neighbours, and finally, efforts and international conspiracies, engineered
that Afghanistan’s dubious distinction of leading by India and supported by others, to sabotage the
the world in opium production will affect us the CPEC. It was reported by the media on 14 Nov 2018
most. Thus, the peace process in Afghanistan must that RAW had established a special cell at a cost
include answers to all these predicaments. of $500 million, for the purpose. Indian hostile
activities in Pakistan intensified within days of
Of greater concern are the numerous the inauguration of the CPEC shipments. First, an
Indian submarine illegally sneaked into Pakistani
efforts and international conspiracies, waters near Gwadar, in Nov 2016, on a clandestine
engineered by India and supported by mission against the port but it beat a hasty retreat
others, to sabotage the CPEC. It was when challenged by the Pakistan Navy. Other
reported by the media on 14 Nov 2018 attempts include numerous Indian terrorist
activities in Balochistan, that are mentioned in the
that RAW had established a special confessions of Commander Jhadev, advertisements
cell at a cost of $500 million, for the with malicious content about Balochistan, in
purpose Geneva in September and then in London in
November. Earlier, US Congressman Rohrabacher
Threats to the CPEC had spoken about of the ‘right’ of the people of
Balochistan to ‘self-determination’ at Washington
Pakistan is clearly poised to transform its in 2012 and at London in 20134. In Oct 2017, the US
own socio-economic future besides altering the Defense Secretary parroted Indian objections to
destinies of the people of Asia through the CPEC, for the CPEC, during a congressional hearing5. Media
good. However, India is creating overt and covert reports in Nov 2018, revealed that the Indian NSA,
hurdles in the path of the CPEC and encouraging Ajit Doval tried to seek Afghanistan’s permission
competitive, rather than cooperative reactions. in October, to set up a “small security presence”
Rival projects like the ‘New Silk Road Package’, in in Badakhshan province6, close to the Pakistan
partnership with Afghanistan and the ‘Indo-Pacific and China border, probably to sabotage the CPEC
Freedom Corridor’ in collaboration with the US, in GB or even in Kyrgyzstan. India is also being

Green Book 2020 19

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Indian NSA, Ajit Doval tried to Invasion of Our Digital Domain

seek Afghanistan’s permission to Due to proliferation of smartphones, TV
channels and the internet, everyone is subjected to
set up a “small security presence” information salvos on our screens, most of which
in Badakhshan province, close to comprise unauthentic, divisive and even fearful
Pakistan and China border, probably images. Many fake messages are spread through
to sabotage the CPEC automated algorithms; that go viral and leave an
exacting impression on our minds. Recognizing
this, intelligence agencies of major powers have
encouraged to secure “small military bases” in commissioned numerous public and private
Tajikistan, for the same purpose7. India is likely to media outlets and agencies, to profile opinions
continue its links with the TTP, Jamaat al Ahraar, of selected audiences, both foreign and domestic,
BLA and BLF terrorists in Afghanistan, for creating governments and NGOs, through information flows
chaos in Balochistan and GB, to sabotage the and leaks. For instance, the US DoD approves of
CPEC. perception management and defines it as ‘actions
Frequent disinformation campaigns about to convey or deny selected information and
CPEC, as part of its hybrid war, have also indicators to foreign audiences to influence their
simultaneously been launched inside Pakistan. emotions, motives and objective reasoning....9’
All these highly provocative actions are part of a Another official US document (Joint Publication
well thought and integrated conspiracy that is 3-13), posits that ‘...Information operations are
tantamount to an undeclared war, as they pose a meant to ‘influence, disrupt, corrupt, or usurp
direct threat to the national interests of not only the decision making of adversaries ...’10 India has
China and Pakistan but many other countries that actively pursued such actions in in Afghanistan, as
could benefit from the BRI and the CPEC. US support a consequence of which many Afghans now blame
to India on the matter under there environment Pakistan for all their difficulties. Cyber surveillance
is very short sighted indeed. These provocations of social networks is also a regular part of such
threaten the vital economic interests of not only foreign efforts. These trends and opinions are then
China and Pakistan but all the 68 countries which manipulated by a combination of truth and lies,
are part of the BRI. This is an infringement of the deception, ambiguity and psychological processes
UN charter and a matter of grave concern for the to generate and feed fabricated information to us.
region and the world. However, Afghanistan is This phenomenon is being used against Pakistan
unfortunately playing a second fiddle role for by multiple hostile foreign intelligence agencies for
the main antagonists of the CPEC. Last year, the spreading false narratives about the Pakistan Army
Afghan President, Mr. Ashraf Ghani, made his and its intelligence agencies. Far more menacing
country’s support to the CPEC conditional with are the chronicles, comprising many myths and
Indian use of Pakistani land routes, for Afghan doubts on fundamental and crucial matters,
transit trade, in the presence of US Secretary of which are constantly being propagated. The
State Mr. Tillerson at Delhi, knowing well that ‘Two-Nation Theory’ is criticized; Afghanistan’s
Pakistan cannot allow this, due to lack of capacity, preposterous stance on the border issues with
over congestion and saturation of the existing Pakistan is justified; a vicious propaganda is
infra-structure and security reasons8. directed against Kashmiris, whose legitimate
efforts for self-determination are branded as
terrorism. Furthermore, Pakistani efforts to
persuade the warring factions in Afghanistan
for talks with the regime in Kabul are labeled as
‘links with terrorists’; Pakistan’s  sacrifices in
blood and treasure in its war against terrorists
and its remarkable patience in the face of Indo-
Afghan provocations are ignored or undermined, 
while the insidious Indian role in Afghanistan is
acclaimed. Controversies about CPEC are being
generated; doubts about the safety of our nuclear

India is likely to continue its links

with the TTP, Jamaat al Ahraar, BLA
and BLF terrorists in Afghanistan, for
creating chaos in Balochistan and GB,
to sabotage the CPEC

20 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Controversies about CPEC are factor. Fourth; today, the Pakistani armed
forces are still numerically inferior to that of its
being generated; doubts about the adversaries, but they have a robust conventional
safety of our nuclear assets are being and nuclear capability, to effectively frustrate any
created; dissidents are represented as aggression and inflict unacceptable losses on the
liberators invader. Fifth; despite concerted, state-sponsored
efforts by India to destabilize Pakistan, we have
almost won the war against domestic and foreign
assets are being created; dissidents are represented terrorists. This has created new opportunities
as liberators; and, sometimes, Pakistan is called a for economic revival and attracted major foreign
failing state. These dangerous fables and themes investments that will ensure that Pakistan can
have already polluted some unsuspecting minds, sustain essential expenditure on its defense and
due to which they are  inadvertently or willfully security. Finally, India’s support to Pakistani
repeated by a section of the local media. This dissidents and its belligerent actions and
dangerous assault on our digital space must be propaganda has had two positive effects. It has
repelled as part of our national security strategy. revived and revalidated the two-nation theory and
visibly united the people of Pakistan. These are,
CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS indeed, the most reassuring developments for us.
Thus, if India dares to indulge in any misadventure
Dealing with India against Pakistan, it will witness an ignominious
Given the obtaining milieu and the Indian defeat.  Needless to say, Pakistan’s response will
policies and provocations alluded earlier in this be swift and measured, like the one to repel the
rendition, it is probable that India could push attack at Balakot and it must not hesitate to use
Pakistan to the brink of war and beyond, while any or all means at its disposal to defend itself.
it falsely hopes for a military victory. However, In the event of a war, India may itself disintegrate
should the Indian leaders be tempted towards due to its enhanced vulnerabilities in IOJK since

Indian Media - Anti Pakistan Obsession

adoption of this approach, the following ground August, many fissiparous tendencies elsewhere,
realities should sober them up. These should and abhorrence of minorities, extreme arrogance,
also provide confidence to our national security racist philosophy and obstinacy.
planners for a response: First; the Pakistan of
2019 is very different from what it was in 1971 as
the trinity of the military, the people and the Pakistani armed forces are still
government is united in the country’s defence. numerically inferior to that of its
Second; our politicians have learnt to share power,
in accordance with the people’s desire expressed
adversaries, but they have a robust
through the ballot. Third; unlike 1971, all federating conventional and nuclear capability,
units in Pakistan are now geographically to effectively frustrate any aggression
contiguous, well-connected through road, rail and inflict unacceptable losses on the
and air infra structure and are socio-economically
integrated, with Urdu as an additional unifying invader

Green Book 2020 21

 PAKISTAN ARMY

The leaders of big powers must show text. First, a domestic and international Kashmir
courage and resolve to implement Fund needs to be constituted, which could be
crowd sourced, like the CJP and PM’s dam fund.
UNSC Resolutions or give consent The government should provide tax incentives for
to some other form of international donations to this fund. As the federal government
intercession to bring peace to IOJK cannot support this effort, due to its meagre
resources, post the 18th Amendment, it must
encourage the provinces to allocate at least one
As bilateralism has constantly proved to percent of their NFC shares and earnings for the
be a false proposition in the Indo-Pakistan purpose. This fund needs to be controlled directly
relations,  facilitation, followed by mediation by the PM, through the new team, with oversight
and finally arbitration by the UN or any other by the Ministry of Finance. Among other purposes,
mutually agreed third party is the right and the the fund must be used for preventing human rights
only approach to settle disputes. While doing so, violations in IOJK, informing the Indian masses
efforts that ignore the will of the Kashmiris are and liberal intellectuals about the colossal cost
unlikely to succeed and the damage caused by a in terms of treasure and blood, of enslaving nine
future catastrophe, arising out of Kashmir dispute, million Kashmiris for over 70 years, and exposing
shall not be limited to the Subcontinent. The the lies of the Indian government on the matter.
onus of such a disaster shall lie on the permanent Kashmiri diaspora, both from AJK and IOJK need to
members of the UNSC, for their indifference and be integrated in the planning and implementation
apathy towards the conflict in IOJK. Meanwhile, of the policy, through our diplomatic missions, all
Pakistan must warn the US that frequent Indian over the world, particularly in the P5 countries.
threats will compel it to shift its forces from its If needed, the Foreign Office must hire lobbyist,
Western borders. That could adversely affect peace specifically for the Kashmir cause in capitals of
in Afghanistan, for which Modi must be held chosen countries. Our relationship with the big
accountable. powers, particularly the OIC, must be based on
The leaders of the big powers must show their stance about the Kashmir issue and this must
the courage and resolve to implement the UNSC be unambiguously communicated to all. A special
Resolutions or give consent to some other form of OIC summit must be convened at Islamabad to
international intercession to bring peace to IOJK. apprise the members about the plight of the 210
The International Court of Justice (ICJ), which is million Kashmiris and Indian Muslims for a united
the judicial organ of the UN, could also provide response. As India’s action has also challenged
a fresh interpretation of UNSC Resolutions on China’s sovereign interests, our policy must be
Kashmir under Article 38 of its statute to resolve closely coordinated with it. PEMRA must instruct
the issue. The goal of peace will remain a dream all private media to allocate daily time and space
for the people of the Indo-Pakistan Sub-Continent for highlighting the matter. The Ministry of
and the South Asian region, unless the issue Information must buy airtime on foreign media to
of Kashmir is resolved through the existing UN correct the international perceptions about IOJK,
Resolutions which are based on the universal right for which India has itself created the conditions.
of the people to self-determination. Any other Pakistan must initiate legal efforts at the ICC,
formula for peace in IOJK that is not endorsed by ICJ, and UN to dissuade India from breach of the
the UN or a third party arbitration will be politically Geneva Conventions, Hague Regulations; ethnic
unacceptable and difficult to rationalize, both cleansing, genocide or demographic alterations in
in India, as well as Pakistan. Irrespective of the IOJK. The MoK&GB must be mandated to coordinate
IOJK situation, the Kartarpur initiative must be all affairs related to the IOJK as well, contingency
facilitated and progress. planning to deliver international humanitarian
aid or providing shelter to Kashmiri refugees,
Revamping the Kashmir Policy whenever needed. The Kashmir Parliamentary
Committee must expound the reasons for its
Pakistan’s present policy on Kashmir is based
inability to accomplish their assigned mission, in a
on diplomatic, moral and political support to the
special joint sitting of the parliament. India must
freedom struggle in the IOJK, for a plebiscite, as
also be warned that violation of the Indus water
enunciated in the UNSC resolutions. Thus, while
the UNSC meeting on Kashmir in August 2019 and
our efforts in the UNGA in October, to highlight Pakistan’s present policy on
the matter further, were significant to peruse this
policy per se, yet it might take the UN many Kashmir is based on diplomatic, moral
more years to resolve the issue, unless our policy and political support to the freedom
on the subject is reassessed. The contours of a struggle in IOJK, for a plebiscite, as
revised Kashmir policy are outlined in the ensuing
enunciated in UNSC resolutions

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India must also be warned that Pakistan must make any dialogue
violation of the Indus water Treaty with India conditional with the reversal
will be treated as aggression and of all illegal measures, taken by it in
responded accordingly August, and inclusion of third party,
preferably UN mediators
Treaty will be treated as aggression and responded
accordingly’11. With the help of the OIC countries of an interim government to hold fresh elections,
and China, Pakistan can garner the support of that are monitored by neutral observers and which
enough UN members to pass a resolution at the ensures the participation of all elements of the
UNGA, through a simple majority vote, next year, Afghan polity. Afterwards, the interim government
in support of the earlier UNSC resolutions on the must assist in the revision of the current Afghan
subject. The focus of our efforts should be on constitution to the satisfaction of all stake holders.
international, rather than domestic measures in The new government must partner with Pakistan
support of our revised policy; to pressurize India. to counter terrorists and jointly augment border
Finally, Pakistan must make any dialogue with management efforts. In order to avoid a civil war
India conditional with the reversal of all illegal of the kind, seen after the Soviet withdrawal
measures, taken by it in August, and inclusion of from Afghanistan, a 50,000 strong UN peace
third party, preferably UN mediators in the process. enforcement contingent to Afghanistan must be
‘The IOJK situation is fraught with many perils deployed to provide stability to the new regime
that need adroit management through a bold, for 2 years, before the complete withdrawal of
all-inclusive and adequately resourced policy; foreign forces from Afghanistan. Soft loans from
restructuring and accountability of concerned the IMF, WB and ADB for Afghanistan must also be
state institutions. Concomitantly, the big powers an integral part of the plan. Pakistan must make
need persistent forewarnings, that unless India its support to the new rulers in Kabul, conditional
is prevented from human rights violations in with their recognition of the border between
IOJK non-state actors will emerge again, whose the two countries, expelling hostile intelligence
response could be unpredictable and unrestricted. agencies’ agents from Afghanistan and handing
This could be cataclysmic for Asian peace’ 12 and over the TTP leaders to Pakistan.
Pakistan’s security. Thus, we must take the recent The Afghan leaders must hold themselves
threats, arising out of Indian actions in IOJK very accountable, be honest with their people and the
seriously and nurture no complacence due to the international community and collaborate with
past successes of the National Action Plan. Pakistan to minimize the problems associated
with the transition towards peace. Unless this is
A 50,000 strong UN peace done, Afghanistan cannot recover from the path
enforcement contingent to Afghanistan of failure. If Afghanistan continues to live in the
must be deployed to provide stability past, myopically opposes Pakistani efforts to
strengthen and improve its control at its Western
to the new regime for 2 years, before borders, believes in disinformation of Indian and
the complete withdrawal other intelligence agencies, allows the use of its
soil for a proxy war in Pakistan and shies away
from a political solution to its conundrum, the writ
IMPERATIVES OF THE AFGHAN of its government will surely shrink further, with
PEACE PROCESS devastating consequences for the region.
Redesigning through Vivid Panacea Afghans must be told that foreign forces will
not stay in their country forever and that a political
Exposition dispensation that runs contrary to the interests of
The current efforts for restoration of peace in
Afghanistan, without grossly undermining the
power contender’s divergent positions, are indeed The Afghan leaders must hold
an arduous undertaking. It’s a task similar to themselves accountable, be honest
brokering the Geneva Accords in the 80’s that led
to the Soviet departure from Afghanistan. It must with their people and the international
therefore outline unambiguous conditions for all community and collaborate with
agreements which must be unanimously backed Pakistan to minimize the problems
by the OIC and mandated by the UNSC or vice associated with the transition towards
versa. It must hold the Afghan rulers accountable
for any disunity and include the establishment peace

Green Book 2020 23

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Pakistan will miscarry. That is a historic reality An elaborate Pak-China CPEC

that Afghanistan and the West can ignore at their
own peril. This will be a slow, gradual process,
intelligence organization, satellite
but the only one to promise a genuine and lasting monitoring and enhanced maritime
peace in Afghanistan. collaboration, must be an integral part
Protecting the CPEC of the security mechanism
Though challenges to CPEC appear daunting
but they can be surmounted. The Pakistani foreign signed in 2004 by the governments of China,
office has taken note of some of more serious Pakistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to facilitate
developments and has initiated appropriate action direct transit trade among them. The heads of
to condemn and reject hostile measures against all four countries have already expressed their
the CPEC, calling them as an infringement of support for the QATT. This arrangement will also
the UN charter and impingement of Pakistan’s enable most other Central Asian Republics, to
sovereignty and territorial integrity. There is a access Gwadar, without reliance on an insecure
need to concomitantly and officially communicate Afghanistan.
our concerns, at the highest level, to the heads of
the foreign governments who are opposing the While the federation has raised special
CPEC. This should be done jointly and severally by security forces for the protection of the CPEC,
Pakistan and China, in consultation with the other the provinces must also devise plans to secure
countries that are part of the BRI. Our response the projects located therein. The cost of the CPEC
should include manifold collective remedies and security must be built in the cost of all projects and
counteractions, to compel the rivals of the CPEC to it should be equally shared by China and Pakistan.
desist from hurting our economic interests. The BRI An elaborate Pak-China CPEC intelligence
has recently been written into China’s constitution. organization, satellite monitoring and enhanced
Being a vital interest, the Pakistani government maritime collaboration, must be an integral part
must also provide constitutional protection to of the security mechanism. Another multinational
the CPEC. Negative propaganda against the CPEC organization, led by China, must be formed, to
must be dispelled through Sino-Pak state and respond to the threats posed to the BRI, through
private media, ensuring transparency of planning, coordinated political, diplomatic, economic,
as well as execution and arranging seminars security and surveillance measures. The SCO and
and workshops. Pakistan could also declare and BRICS forums must also be used to minimize the
inform the UN and the P5 nations that any terrorist threats to the BRI. As SAARC has been obstructed
activity in Balochistan or the Mekran Coast will by India, Pakistan needs to use the OIC platform to
be taken as acts of aggression by India that could urge the Muslim countries to benefit from it.
be responded by Pakistan, at a time and place of Despite heavy odds, many CPEC projects
its own choosing. This should be done in close are already up and running. This is a clear
coordination with China. As Afghanistan’s message about the resilience and determination
stability cannot be predicted and its policies of the Chinese and the Pakistani people, who are
are unlikely to change in the near future, committed to its success, not only for their own
any CPEC plans that are dependent benefit, but also for others to diversify and develop
for access to Central Asia, via their economies. This should inspire everyone to
Afghanistan may be held in support, rather than oppose the CPEC.
abeyance and Afghanistan
The Eurasian people would surely be grateful
bypassed through revival
one day, to the Pakistani people, for their resilience
of The “Quadrilateral
and determination to make the CPEC a success.
Agreement on Traffic
They also need to partner with Pakistan to shelter
in Transit” (QATT)
it from the many foreign agents of chaos.
of 1995, that was

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

Winning the Mind and Media Wars of the grave perils that we are facing, and conceive
adequately resourced, well-structured and
Mind games will continue to grow and become
elaborate, information and media security policies
a real affliction, unless the internet is governed
that cater to the vicissitudes of the current milieu.
or its use is restricted. Both these measures are
Besides responding to hostile propaganda themes,
unlikely to be put in place in the near future. 
this policy must aim at guarding our ideological
Given Pakistan’s limited ability and capacity to
moorings, promoting our national interests, giving
respond to an invasion of the minds of its people,
hope to the people, rooting out despondency and
as a vital component of its adversary’s hybrid war,
raising our national prestige, morale and self-
it is  hard to imagine if we will ever succeed in
confidence.
creating an effective shield against these threats.
However, the masterminds of such games can and The policy must promote our national
must be exposed and opposed in every manner by narrative, eulogize our accomplishments, pay
all responsible and educated citizens, who must tribute to our national heroes and highlight the real
scrutinize unsolicited information and verify every and demonstrated potential of our diaspora abroad
anonymously received message through social and the resolve and resilience of our patriotic
media before it is shared. population to fight terrorists. If we want to defeat
hostile cyber blitzkriegs and win mind and media
The Ministries of Information and Science
and technology must also gear up to respond
to such dangers in coordination with PEMRA,
whose present mandate and structure needs to
be revised for the purpose. With help from our
intelligence apparatus, these institutions must
make special arrangements to spread awareness

For Pakistan, there is no better

panacea to overcome the grave
challenges to our freedom than unity,
political amity, provincial harmony
and the equitable distribution of
economic opportunities and resources
within the country

Green Book 2020 25

 PAKISTAN ARMY

An enduring peace may be possible in South Asia, if people vote into power, those
leaders and political parties who consider peace as a supreme national interest,
promise peaceful resolution of disputes in election manifestoes and then fulfil this
assurance

wars, our  policymakers must identify and accept friction outlined at the beginning of this rendition,
the information domain as our most vulnerable this phenomenon could perhaps be regarded as
asymmetric flank. Unless this happens, we might the cardinal panacea of peace. Rulers and the
lose our meagre territory in the digital space and ruled in real democracies must have conviction in
remain susceptible to dangerous disinformation this maxim. Those who think and act otherwise,
campaigns aimed at altering our deep-seated shall continue to gravitate towards wars.
beliefs, denial of our own reality, invalidation of
our perceptions and trivializing our way of life.  All religions advocate peace,
Miscellaneous Sign Posts of Peace 13 harmony, balance and tranquillity.
For Pakistan, there is no better panacea to It is these virtues which need to be
overcome the grave challenges to our freedom than promulgated and narrow views opposite
unity, political amity, provincial harmony and the to this and extreme interpretations of
equitable distribution of economic opportunities faith must be discouraged and negated
and resources within the country.
by all
Our leaders must also be aware of all the
traditional and non-traditional challenges to peace Corporate businesses, the world over have
and the reasons why nations go to war, or non- built-in arbitration and mediation mechanisms,
state actors and individuals choose to retaliate. through which they settle disputes. Individual
They must be acutely conscious of the cost of war disagreements too, are often referred to third
and the peace dividend, before making the fateful parties, or judicial courts for a final decision. On
decision to choose the former. similar lines, India and Pakistan can settle all their
Front runners must believe in the ethics of war disputes through peaceful methods of negotiations,
and as crises arise, they must mentally prepare facilitation, mediation, arbitration, persuasion
the nation about the choice of the best response and inspiration etc. Old and complicated conflicts
options. that cannot be resolved would need to be managed
to reduce or control instability. Such conflicts
An enduring peace may be possible in South may need ‘conflict transformation’14that involves
Asia, if people vote into power, those leaders and modification of perceptions about contentious
political parties who consider peace as a supreme issues and actions of belligerents. This Department
national interest, promise peaceful resolution of must also consider and recommend feasible,
disputes in election manifestoes and then fulfil realistic and practical options on possible changes
this assurance. Such efforts and their successful of policy to forestall wars.
outcomes could be labelled as peace through the
ballot. Considered in the light of the main causes of An elaborate and open debate in the
parliament followed by discussions in the media,
on the option to go to war, along with its rationale,
politico-military objectives, timeframe and the
likely spending on the impending war, or to affect
changes to policy to avert wars should therefore
be a mandatory, constitutional requirement. The
final decision to declare war must be endorsed by
at least two third majority votes of the law makers.
The role of the national security councils and
other forms of higher defence organizations is

Due to the rise of the RSS in India, the

Indo-US nuclear deal must be scrapped
to prevent a nuclear exchange in South
Asia

26 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

central in all deliberations and decisions related to The preceding inter-linked imperatives can
war and peace and therefore, these institutions must usher in long term stability, besides substantially
be carefully formed and their collective wisdom improving the overall security environment in the
given due consideration. Dissenting opinions must region. Let us hope that the precepts, notions and
be encouraged and given appropriate weightage. signposts of peace, suggested in this exposition
However all recommendations that are prejudiced can address the onerous need of reconciliation
by, or founded on revenge or ego, must be rejected. and peaceful coexistence in Asia.
All religions advocate peace, harmony,
Lieutenant General Raza Muhammad Khan,
balance and tranquility. It is these virtues which
HI (M) (Retired), former Corps Commander
need to be promulgated and narrow views opposite
and former President of National Defense
to this and extreme interpretations of faith must
University, Islamabad
be discouraged and negated by all. Resources
spent on the right education, particularly in the Notes
less developed countries of Asia could bring 1. https://frontline.thehindu.com/the-nation/the-doval-doctrine/article7800194.
enlightenment, and induce positive changes in ece
mind sets. Such efforts can be the harbingers of a 2. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/kashmir-
deeply ingrained and everlasting peace, and are situation-explosive-and-complicated-trump-says-offering-to-mediate-again/
articleshow/70764300.cms
indeed the best forms of long term investment in a 3. https://www.state.gov/four-party-joint-statement-on-afghan-peace-process/
more secure and prosperous future for Asia. 4. https://tribune.com.pk/story/338079/us-congressman-tables-resolution-
calling-for-independence-of-baloch/ https://www.dawn.com/news/789100
Due to the rise of the RSS in India, the Indo-
US nuclear deal must be scrapped to prevent a 5. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/on-obor-us-backs-india-says-it-crosses-
disputed-territory-1057313-2017-10-04
nuclear exchange in South Asia. Till this is done, 6. http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2017/11/pak-scan-india-keen-for-limited.
it will be the biggest and most urgent moral and html

international security obligation of the US and 7. https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2019/03/23/chinas-tajikistan-military-base-

all other global agencies, concerned with nuclear eclipses-indias-central-asian-ambitions/
8. https://www.livemint.com/Politics/d1qC7ME0sFY3froWPmNkNK/Narendra-
safety, to carefully and closely monitor all Indian Modi-Ashraf-Ghani-for-closure-of-crossborder-saf.html
civil and military nuclear facilities to prevent 9. https://usiofindia.org/publication/usi-journal/the-art-of-perception-
pilferage, proliferation or misuse of fissile material. management-in-information-warfare-today-2/
10. https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=759867
Finally, what the future holds for peace will
11. https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/516479-the-kashmir-policy
depend, to a great extent on the way the media
projects and handles most events, issues, beliefs 12. Ibid.

and concerns that can evoke either violence and 13. Some portions of this part , authored by the same writer have appeared in a
book titled, Peace and War, their Precepts and Principles, Part 1, p. 126-128,
aggression or compromise and reconciliation. Due Ferozesons Lahore ,2013.

to this onus, greater reflection is warranted on 14. See Preparing for Peace: Conflict Transformation Across Cultures, by
Lederach, John Paul (Syracuse University Press, 1995).
media regulation and its roles.

A High Powered Chinese Military Delegation lead by General Xu Qiliang, Vice Chairman Chinese Military
Commission visited Pakistan - Post August 5th Unilateral Annexation of IOJK by PM Modi
 PAKISTAN ARMY

28 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

National Post
Security
& Article
Emerging
Geopolitical
Scenario: Obliteration
370

Farzana Shah

Abstract
Obliteration of Article 370 of Indian constitution by BJP Hindutva government will go down in history
as a watershed event. This paper argues that this action by Indian government was a step towards a
much greater Indian design that is going to challenge Pakistan’s national security and regional peace.
There are multiple factors behind this Indian overture in IOJK. These factors include CPEC, relevance
of Pakistan’s geography to almost every major development in the region like Afghan peace process,
rise of China, US interests in Ladakh region, Persian Gulf and potential conflict-like situation in Middle
East. Pakistan and India have direct clash of strategic interests in these areas and a geopolitical milieu
is emerging in the region where Pakistan’s national security is being challenged. Indian actions on
August 5th have complicated Pakistan’s security threat matrix even further. The paper argues that
Pakistan will have to find a politically defendable position while ensuring that Indian designs of
altering the demography in IOJK remains in check. Pakistan cannot risk ignoring developments in
IOJK after multiple threats have been made by Indian government to extend its jurisdiction over AJK
and Northern Areas. Pakistan will have to embrace non-kinetic warfare strategies backed by offensive
diplomacy under a cohesive Kashmir strategy.
Keywords: Kashmir, Peace and Stability, Article 370, National Security, CPEC, Emerging Alignments,
Escalating Strategic Contestation

Green Book 2020 29

 PAKISTAN ARMY

O
n August 5th, 2019 India unilaterally
revoked Article 370 of its constitution Indian desperation to counter
which promised autonomy to the state Pakistan and limit her growing role in
of Jammu and Kashmir i.e. Indian Afghan peace process led to such an
Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IOJK). abrupt abrogation of special status of
This unlawful decision with its dire pending
consequences has triggered an outrage, not only IOJK; timing was no coincident
in the region but also at the global level. The
entire state has been put under siege with total
communication blackout, enforced by deploying Media reports suggest the Indian intelligence
thousands of fresh troops. Over 3000 political agencies were desperately waiting for this
figures including former chief ministers of the opportunity to strike. Delhi had sensed that a
state were arrested under so-called Public Safety possible deal managed by Pakistan for US troops’
Act (PSA). withdrawal from Afghanistan could eventually
India also divided the state into two; an act renew US military assistance for Pakistan.
through which she changed the geography of the Reportedly, to scuttle Afghan peace deal and
disputed land, hence practically ending the 1971 legitimize Indian stance over Kashmir, Indian
spy agency RAW’s new chief Samant Goel called
on Narendra Modi on July 5th, 2019 and apprised
him of the plan to abolish the Article 370 for IOJK.1
Preparations for the move were already in place
in Delhi as a number of high profile military and
intelligence visits were made to IOJK including
those by RAW’s chief Goel, Indian NSA Ajit Doval
and Indian Army Chief General Bipin Rawat in the
months preceding August 2019. On July 24, Doval
also held a meeting with Indian military chiefs and
heads of all three intelligence agencies including
National Technical Research Organization
(NTRO)2, in the same context.
Joint US - India Military Exercise
Media also reported that India had flown
Israeli Heron drones across the Pir Panjal range
Simla Agreement. This agreement has remained to rehearse controlling mob in case of protest
a critical milestone for both Pakistan and India, eruption3; military aircrafts made a number of
as it was this agreement based upon which both sorties flying relief supplies including food, water
countries established what the World later on and medicines into the Valley for the Indian troops.
recognized as Line of Control (LoC). Not only
that, August 5th action also undermined the very After Indian decision of obliteration of Article
foundation of Indian constitution, as Article 370 370, LoC has become potential conflict with
was obliterated without the essentially required Pakistan under the nuclear overhang because of
consent of state government and that’s why this the simple fact that Delhi has changed the goalpost
action was not a constitutional reform, but a for future talks on Kashmir. According to Indian
blatant coup in total disregard to the pending leadership, now talks will be on Azad Jammu and
UNSC resolutions /UN Charter. Kashmir.
Modi government with full backing from Post August 5th environment suggests that
hardliner Hindu groups, abolished IOJK’s India with obliteration of Article 370 actually
autonomous status under a fabricated security risked a high intensity insurgency in an already
threat perception to conceal the real intent. Pak- volatile state of IOJK; something India could not
US peace overtures in Afghanistan had made Delhi have done alone without external backing.
very nervous because of the simple fact that any
settlement between the US and Taliban would
have enabled Pakistan to move almost 200,000 of
its troops or atleast a large number of these to its India with obliteration of Article
eastern borders in Kashmir and elsewhere. Indian 370 actually risked a high intensity
desperation to counter Pakistan and limit her insurgency in an already volatile IOJK;
growing role in Afghan peace process led to such
an abrupt abrogation of special status of IOJK and something India could not have done
this timing was no coincidence. alone without external backing

30 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

RSS Hindutva Training Camp

India /BJP’s Envisioned Final Solution Pakistan’s national security by attacking Azad
of Kashmir Kashmir in near future to secure a chunk, no
matter how small it is. Statement of “intent” has
In 1925, an upper-caste Brahmin, Keshav been made by no less than three important state
Hedgewar, founded what would become India’s ministers of India.
preeminent Hindu nationalist association:
the  Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh  (RSS). After India intends to snatch 72,000
1947, it was RSS who first called for complete
integration of IOJK into India without any special square km of Gilgit with at least over
powers. That position has been a founding agenda 13,000 square km of Azad Kashmir to
of RSS’ political wings ever since the Bharatiya have access to Central Asian Republics,
Jana Sangh (the BJP’s predecessor) was established while cutting off CPEC route
in 1951. The Government of India’s openness to the
idea of Hindutva has been apparent since 1958, India intends to snatch 72,000 square km
but any move in that direction had to be planned of Gilgit with at least over 13,000 square km of
very carefully in the light of current geostrategic Azad Kashmir to have access to Central Asian
environment. Republics, while cutting off CPEC route. Home
The BJP was formed in 1980, drawing together Minister  Rajnath Singh  said that talks between
a range of Hindu activist projects, from Gandhian India and Pakistan can only be held on Pakistani
to more explicitly Hindu nationalist. BJP itself administered Kashmir in future and not on IOJK.
remains a political project of right-wing Hindutva The same was echoed by BJP  MP Subramanian
ideologues to get to the power corridors in Delhi. Swamy, saying “The PoK should be united with
Now they have cemented their positioning. us”.4 The most recent tirade in this regard came
from Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar,
BJP a political face of saffron Hindutva brigade,
who said that India will physically lay hands on
has been eyeing for a change in the demography
PoK, referring to Azad Kashmir.5
of IOJK by settling non-Kashmiri Hindus, on the
lines of Israeli Jewish settlements in Palestine. After Home Minister of India, such a bold
This remains the final solution of Kashmir problem statement by Foreign Minister of India is a brazen
for BJP government in Delhi. Apart from that, the threat of direct attack on Azad Kashmir in near
abrogation of Article 370 is part of BJP’s strategy future. Earlier, Indian Union Minister Jitendar
of paving the ground for a larger design against Singh made Indian intentions clear by stating,
“After Article 370, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir
Our Next Agenda.”6 Citing abrogation of the
BJP, a political face of saffron article a step for fully integrating not only Jammu
and Kashmir with India, but attacking Pakistani
Hindutva brigade, has been eyeing for Kashmir as well.
a change in demography of IOJK by
All these statements, overtures and
settling non-Kashmiri Hindus, on the demeanours from Indian political elite have
lines of Israeli Jewish settlements in endangered the peace of entire region with
Palestine possible effects on the entire world, about which

Green Book 2020 31

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Foreign Minister addressing UN Human Rights Council

Pakistan’s political leadership has been warning imposed by our geography that Pakistan cannot
the world since the day Delhi decided to adopt the stay isolated from regional developments. Even
imperialistic approach to rule her own subjects, in some cases, extra regional developments also
based on some grand strategic design driven by impact Pakistan’s security milieu; fast evolving
abhorrently violent ideology; Hindutva. Hence, situation in Middle East and ongoing trade war
this threat perception carries credence and must between US and China, are cases in point.
not be ignored by Pakistan. United Nations on April 21, 1948 adopted
It is in this background, this issue is going to Kashmir resolution after India took the issue to
affect Pakistan’s national security, which demands the UN under article 35 of Chapter VI. Kashmir was
a fresh evaluation of security and threat matrix. declared disputed territory and call for a plebiscite
was made as the said chapter outlines the means
for a peaceful settlement of disputes. The shadowy
Delhi decided to adopt the annexation of IOJK by India and insistence upon
imperialistic approach to rule her its fabricated history has resulted in 3 out of
own subjects, based on some grand 4 Indo-Pak wars. With current clampdown on
basic human rights in IOJK, there is a clear and
strategic design driven by abhorrently present danger of yet another round of conflict.
violent ideology; Hindutva LoC is already red hot; both countries are already
exchanging artillery fire. Earlier, in February 2019,
Pakistan’s Current Security Profile both sides deployed air power. India lost 2 fighter
jets on 27/2 with one pilot becoming POW; who was
Pakistan’s national security paradigm has immediately returned by Pakistan as a goodwill
two most critical facets; our borders (eastern and gesture.
western) and ailing economy (Table Opposite).
Threats and opportunities on both these borders India is desperate to get a role in the region,
are inter-linked and inter-connected and Pakistan’s belittling what Pakistan has been doing for
economic situation leaves very little room for the regional stability. This is critical for India to
state to mitigate enemy’s strategic onslaught. Due present Pakistan as a perpetrator of global terror,
to Pakistan’s weak economy, the differential with while fact is Pakistan has been the biggest victim
India in conventional balance of power has grown of non-state actors’ actions within and without.
manifolds. Two most important strategic goals of India are:
ƒƒ Bigger role, both in the region and world.
Pakistan’s Current National Security
ƒƒ Solving Kashmir through UNSC resolutions, but
Predicaments after changing its demography to ensure a win.
Developments in IOJK are neither random Solving Kashmir will pave the way for permanent
nor isolated as far as their impact on Pakistan’s UNSC seat; vital prerequisite for India to embark
national security is concerned. It is a dilemma on Akhand Bahart agenda of RSS.

32 Green Book 2020

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Pakistan’s Security Threat Matrix – 2019

Impact on
Nature of Conflict
Enemy Threat Perceived National
/ Threat
Security
Non State Violent Insurgency, LICs, Suicide
Actors (Sleeper cells Bombing, Subversion, Attacks
Sub-Conventional Indirect
of TTP and other on defense installations and
militant groups) fencing teams, kidnapping
Political and ideological
Sub-Nationalists / sedition, ability to
Separatists (BLA/ sabotage the rail and road Sub-Conventional Direct/ Indirect
BRA) infrastructure at critical
points in Balochistan
INTERNAL
Violent fragmentation of civil Terrorism, Serious
Sectarian Groups Indirect
society on sectarian lines Law and Order issue

Political Militant
Wings associated Disturbance in law and order
Urban Terrorism Indirect
with political situation in Karachi
parties

Economic Worrisome for economic

Economic Direct
slowdown security and state viability

Failure of Afghan peace

process is serious security
Conventional, Sub-
Western Border / problem for both Pakistan
Conventional Direct
Afghanistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan
cannot mobilize force from
WB to border with India
Hostile states with strong
political clout have been
Economic putting Pakistan under
Economic,
Strangulation pressure through bodies Direct
Non-kinetic
(FATF, IMF) like FATF making local
EXTERNAL environment non-conducive
for international investments
Massive Psy-ops against
Hostile State Actors Psychological,
Pakistan army to destroy the
(Intel organizations Non-kinetic Direct
credibility as a professional
and media outlets) Info warfare
defense force
Potential Execution of Cold Strategic,
Start, Coercive diplomacy, Conventional, Sub-
India
media ops, supporting NSVAs Conventional, Direct, Indirect
against Pakistan Army, Non-Kinetic,
Manipulation of IWT 1960 Economic

Indian threat has been intensified even more Notwithstanding these obvious kinetic
after August 5, 2019. Kashmir has dominated the threats, Pakistan’s security landscape is inevitably
security debate as it’s going to impact both internal affected by certain other factors as well, like
and external security dynamics. How things will peaceful rise of China and her ensuing trade
unfold in coming weeks and months, depends on war with the US, culmination of US’ longest war
how Pakistan formulates and executes its strategy in history in Afghanistan and growing strategic
on Kashmir. competition around various parts of Asia including
Apart from the traditional foe in the east,
the country has been fighting an endless war on It is a dilemma imposed by our
the west, which despite clear gains, remains a geography that Pakistan cannot stay
perpetually bleeding front albeit with reduced isolated from regional developments
fatalities.

Green Book 2020 33

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Israeli lobby in Washington and right wing elements of Indian diaspora in US

have turned India into largest market of advanced US arms like P8-I Neptune MAS,
Apache gunship, M-777 howitzer artillery guns, C-17 strategic airlift planes

South China Sea, Indian Ocean, North Korea, and terrorism. As the US was fighting war, 12000 km
stand-off between US allies in Strait of Hurmuz away from home against the same terrorists it once
against Iran. All these geopolitical developments nurtured against Soviets.
will directly or indirectly impact Pakistan. Hence,
it is likely to continue to be in the eye of global Beijing has plans to expand BRI
security storm due to its geography and may
to 70 countries and CPEC remains a
continue to suffer if not steered wisely.
critical part of this Chinese enterprise.
EMERGING ALIGNMENTS Road to China’s strive for challenging
AND ESCALATING STRATEGIC American dominance passes through
CONTESTATION CPEC
US – India; Convergence of Strategic
Interests Pakistan’s Significance to China
Post 9/11, once a Soviet ally, India started to Chinese trillion-dollar Belt & Road Initiative
explore new alliances in an effort to bolster it’s (BRI) is pivotal for turning China into a world
economic as well as military power. With paradigm commercial empire. The region of Azad Jammu
shift in strategic interests, US-India once maritime and Kashmir gains unprecedented import-ance
competitors in IOR in 80s, are now jointly striding in the wake of US-China emerging geopolitical
to choke Chinese maritime trading and military competition worldwide. US wants to hit CPEC
communication lines. just like India for almost similar reasons; CPEC
has infact comprehensively demolished the US
Indian quest for roping in US yielded in 2008 envisaged strategic encirclement of China in South
when US congress gave final approval to Indo-US China Sea, notwithstanding US quadrilateral
nuclear deal. The deal negotiated from 2005 to alliance with Japan, Australia, and India. Idea was
2008 led to lifting of three-decade old US sanctions that CPEC brings global connectivity to China, so
on nuclear trade with India, imposed due to that Beijing can invest hundreds of billions of US
non-proliferation issues. Considering the three dollars in its reserves to reignite the growth engine,
countries outside Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty which has slowed down during last 5-7 years (from
(NPT), Israel, India and Pakistan – this stands to 10% annual to 6.5%). Beijing has plans to expand
be a unique deal.7 BRI to 70 countries and CPEC remains a critical
Asia-Pacific Policy of Obama’s regime let part of this Chinese enterprise. Road to China’s
India positions herself as a key US ally in IOR as strive for challenging American dominance passes
a counterweight to Chinese strategy of extending through CPEC.
Sea Lines Of Communication (SLOCs). Taking
Apart from this economic dimension, the
advantage of US desperation, strong anti-China
signaling was done to ensure “freedom of north eastern region of IOJK is attractive due to
navigation and over flight throughout the region, its close proximity to Russia, China and Pakistan.
especially in the South China Sea”.8 The Indian action in IOJK gives the US deep state
an opportunity for furthering its own scheme of
Israeli lobby in Washington and right wing geopolitical maneuvering in Afghanistan, which is
elements of Indian diaspora in the US have turned instrumental in containing Russia-China-Pakistan
India into largest market of advanced US arms at the same time.
like P8-I Neptune MAS, Apache gunship, M-777
howitzer artillery guns, C-17 strategic airlift planes. While US has remained stranded in Afghan
Apart from these, F-16 Block 70 and F-18 E/F are quagmire, China’s BRI has been helping Beijing
being offered to India. Washington felt compelled in positioning China to rise peacefully as a peace
to transfer advanced weapons to Indian arsenal,
creating a serious imbalance of power in South
Asia. CPEC has infact comprehensively
In recent times, taking full advantage of the demolished the US envisaged strategic
prevalent geostrategic milieu, India reshaped encirclement of China in South China
its Kashmir policy around single point agenda of Sea

34 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

broker to the conflict zones like Afghanistan and Russia is interested to partner with
Iraq in near future through trade compulsions.
These very aspects substantiate the growing Pakistan and China in CPEC because
geostrategic prominence of Pakistan /Kashmir.9 Kashgher-Khunjrab-Gwadar corridor
The changing geopolitics has forced Pakistan remains the shortest route to IOR
to adopt a more robust offensive maritime policy,
apart from safeguarding its interests attached
years ago. Evidently, Moscow is putting aside Cold
to land component of CPEC. Pakistan Navy has
War strategic thought process and has enhanced
embarked on an ambitious project of acquiring ties with Pakistan.
eight submarines along with multiple advanced
naval ships. All these may help restore some In Afghanistan too, Russian policy saw a
balance of power in South Asia /IOR. strategic shift. Once a bone of contention between
the two, Afghanistan is becoming one of the vital
Both nations embark on multiple factors drawing Pak-Russia closer. From backing
bilateral military exercises; something Northern Alliance in Afghanistan to initiating
no one could dream about 30 years ago. contacts with Afghan Taliban, the Russian
rapprochement has witnessed an unprecedented
Evidently, Moscow is putting aside Cold turn. It is evident that Russians are as much
War strategic thought process and has uncomfortable with the US breathing on their neck
enhanced ties with Pakistan as they were with Taliban’s presence in northern
Afghanistan adjacent to CAR.
Russia – Pakistan Warmth On economic front too, Pakistan and Russian
Russian role post 9/11, has also been of have grown closer to each other. Post 9/11 Russian
significance as it contributed in shaping the policy has been more open towards Pakistan
regional geopolitics. After the emergence of US- helping both countries to establish strategic
India strategic partnership, Russia initially through linkages to better communicate and understand
China, helped Pakistan in maintaining a healthy regional issues. Russia is interested to partner with
balance of power in the region through transfer of Pakistan and China in CPEC because Kashgher-
military technologies which other sources were not Khunjrab-Gwadar corridor remains the shortest
willing to provide. Initially, vital signs of bilateral route for Russia to IOR. It is in this background that
ties were shaky but after President Musharraf’s Gwadar is considered a game changer.10
visit of 2005 to Moscow, these relations got
traction. Being a major trade and military hardware China – India – Pakistan Paradigm
customer, India was confident that Islamabad will Recent, Sino-India skirmishes in Doklam went
not be able to complete strategic programs like JF- full circle in locking both the nuclear powers into
17 Thunder which needed Russian power plant as a possible warlike situation. India has recently
China was at least decade away from producing expressed her envisioned two front war strategy,
one. To Delhi’s shock, Russia allowed to re-export
which basically relies on the premise of preventing
these power plants to Pakistan. Later on, Russia
Chinese ingress across the LAC amid a high
also exported various systems to Pakistan armed
intensity short lived Indo-Pak conflict adopting
forces. Cooperation got further strengthened as
Cold Start Doctrine (CSD). After initial denial, the
both nations embark on multiple bilateral military
top Indian military brass has not only publically
exercises; something no one could dream about 30

Green
Joint Russia-Pakistan Military Exercise 35
Book 2020 2019)
(Friendship
 PAKISTAN ARMY

On international fora, India always presented Kashmir as a bilateral issue,

supposed to be solved under Simla Agreement at bilateral level without any
third party intervention. While on the bilateral level, Indian policy on Kashmir is
immoveable as it always maintains that Kashmir is an integral part of Union, hence
no bilateral dialogue is possible

acknowledged its presence, but has also hinted at unilateral annexation of IOJK by Modi had already
considering unleashing CSD against Pakistan. occurred.
Indian aggressive attempts to outmaneuver In the wake of Indian move over IOJK, Pakistan
Pakistan’s nuclear threshold forced it to adopt a repeatedly reiterated its intention to undertake
full spectrum deterrence posture, while retaining preventive measures to counter threats hurled by
/displaying the resolve to adopt policy of first India. Such a move had always been seen by the
use. Though it carries a great promise of strategic US and her allies as jeopardizing War on Terror, a
stability, but still there is a sizeable Indian defense metrics which puts Pakistan at a crucial position
intelligentsia that conceives this as a weakness with regard to peace in the region. The equation
in conventional balance of power, hence sees an exhibits importance of Kashmir conflict and
opportunity of a limited, high-intensity conflict consequences of Indian attempt of redrawing map
aimed at shallow gains across LoC / IB. This of erstwhile Jammu & Kashmir for the world peace
community of India is of the view that such gains and stability.
will serve a devastating blow to Pakistan’s national On international fora, India always presented
morale. Indian strategy is to choke Pakistan Kashmir as a bilateral issue, supposed to be solved
economically, while raising cost of its deterrence under Simla Agreement at bilateral level without
by triggering an arms race. any third party intervention. While on the bilateral
Adding current volatile situation in IOJK level, Indian policy on Kashmir is immoveable as it
into above discussed strategic contest between always maintains that Kashmir is an integral part
conventional Indo-Pak militaries and growing US- of Union, hence no bilateral dialogue is possible.
China wrestling for dominance, it would be safe to On the contrary, India showed willingness to
assume that the probability of an armed conflict in discuss Azad Jammu Kashmir and Northern Areas
this region was never this high in last 72 years, as (parts of heretofore Kashmir state) of Pakistan for
it is now. which nation gave blood in 1947-48 to liberate from
the clutches of Dogra Raj; putting added pressure
Pakistan is seen as a sincere peace on our diplomacy.
broker and not the epicenter of global
terror

Critical Appraisal of Pakistan’s

Response Strategy
Let us begin with the most critical question
i.e. if all these preparations as highlighted in
earlier part of this discourse were underway in
India, why Pakistan remained oblivious to these
developments about IOJK or was it caught totally
unaware /surprised like rest of the World? A critical
and candid appraisal is needed.
It would be safe to assume that Pakistan
missed the opportunity to preempt and did very
little or nothing before August 5th on diplomatic
and media fronts to expose and pressurize India.
Whatever and wherever it reacted, it did once

Pakistan’s political leadership has repeatedly and quite forcefully warned the
World at large about the potential threat to global peace emerging from regional
conflict in Kashmir in near future; it’s a nuclear flashpoint that has the latent
potential to engulf the entire world

36 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

The clash of interests among big Global Response

powers alone makes Kashmir a bone The World especially the Western governments
have largely responded in a lukewarm and timid
of contention; contested directly by manner, despite strong resentment /protests from
three nuclear powers (intrinsically human rights activists /diverse communities
linked are the strategic interests of two across the globe. The response of the Arab world
extra regional nuclear powers i.e. US, was astonishingly quite disappointing and to put it
politely, self-centered; terming IOJK as an internal
Russia) issue of India was rather disgusting to say the least.
If the response to human atrocities committed
Despite fighting an unending war against against any community or religion is to be dictated
terrorism and tremendous sacrifices in men and by the size of markets, then it’s better to bury the
material (figure stagger around $200 Bn), Pakistan UN human rights charter and the notion of Muslim
was named as epicenter of terror due to failure to Ummah, when viewed in the context of sufferings
build a narrative backed by cohesive efforts to use of Muslims in Palestine and IOJK.
soft power. The reason why India was so upset
with Pakistan’s peace overtures in Afghanistan, If the response to human atrocities
was because it would send a powerful signal to the committed against any community or
world, where Pakistan is seen as a sincere peace religion is to be dictated by the size
broker and not the epicenter of global terror. of markets, then it’s better to bury UN
These botches were not doing of one human rights charter and the notion of
institution or the rulers, instead they were Muslim Ummah
cumulative failure of the state spread over
decades in being a dynamic functioning body and
governance unit. Irrelevant are such questions, PM Imran Khan, while criticizing the reaction
fact remains that these failures have shaped our of western world has rightly said that the response
current security profile, which presents a rather would have been much different, had it been mere
eight Americans instead of eight million Muslims
bleak picture on almost every axis of national
of IOJK, who have been virtually imprisoned and
power. denied basic human rights by Modi for such an
Despite the fact that since 9/11 Pakistan’s extended period. Nonetheless, there are some
security challenges have grown manifold, it has isolated sane voices which have shown concerns
made abundantly clear that Pakistan cannot and over security situation in IOJK. US congressman,
will not remain oblivious from what goes on inside Rep. Eric Swalwell in his statement said, “The strife
the Kashmir valley; any undertakings however, in Kashmir isn’t just about India and Pakistan – it
demand a comprehensive understanding of the is an issue that has worldwide military, economic,
total security paradigm. Pakistan will have to and moral consequences”.11 Among Muslim
work proactively and diplomatically support the leaders, President Erdogan of Turkey lauded
indigenous KFM, else the state will be dragged his concerns quite forcefully. Nevertheless, the
into yet another regional conflict with India, giving cumulative response fell much short of desirable.
her the advantage to choose time and place of her
liking.
Notwithstanding initial surprise, post August
5th Pakistan’s political leadership has repeatedly
and quite forcefully warned the World at large
about the potential threat to global peace emerging
from regional conflict in Kashmir in near future; it’s
a nuclear flashpoint that has the latent potential to
engulf the entire world.

World especially the Western

governments have largely responded
in a lukewarm and timid manner,
despite strong resentment /protests
from human rights activists /diverse Prime Minister Imran Khan addressing UNGA
communities across the globe (27 September, 2019)

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

Apart from economic and strategic dimensions,

Kashmir issue has become a cultural and social
question as well.
Modi is planning to change the religious
demography of IOJK, through ethnic cleansing and
hindu settlements in disputed territory on the lines
of Jewish settlements by Israel. This drive itself
is being fueled by right-wing Hindutva gangs,
who have taken over India and have completely
distorted her secular face. Hindutva ideology,
much like Hitler’s Nazism, believes in supremacy
of their own faith and considers all minorities in
India as impure and hence, must be culled from
Indian soil.

Hindutva’s control over Indian

society has put Indian minorities in
President Erdogan addressing UNGA grave danger. Lynching of Muslims and
(27 September, 2019) Kashmiri students even within Indian
cities has become new normal
Geo-Strategic Implications
Strategically speaking, the clash of interests Modi appealed to the Indian society to
among big powers alone makes Kashmir a bone “embrace Kashmiris” on Independence Day. It was
of contention; contested directly by three nuclear sensible from both the domestic and international
powers (intrinsically linked are the strategic perspectives. But the news coming out of IOJK
interests of two extra regional nuclear powers i.e. and even from mainland India, indicates that
US, Russia). Hindutva’s control over Indian society has put
Gilgit-Baltistan region has for centuries Indian minorities in grave danger. Lynching of
been the most vital part of Jammu and Kashmir. Muslims and Kashmiri students even within Indian
It is now a key part of CPEC, the cornerstone of cities has become new normal. This explains why
China-Pakistan axis and the flagship project of Modi was compelled to ensure a complete media
China’s BRI for global trade domination; it aims at clampdown in the IOJK. Apart from that, Modi
connecting South Asia with Europe, Central Asia is now faced with severe internal pressure to act
and the Middle East /Africa; the shortest route against Pakistan on AJK.
from Arabian Sea ports of Karachi and Gwadar. Apropos, it is beyond any doubt that the
The growing competition in different fields current fascist regime in India has nefarious
(fanning economies and military insecurities) is designs against Pakistan /Muslims. Ruling RSS/
forcing China and India to gain access to energy VHP/BJP has built anti-Muslim /anti-Pakistan
rich CARs. International North-South Transport sentiment so hard in Indian mainstream media
Corridor (INSTC) was envisioned by India as and public discourse that BJP will have to continue
alternative to CPEC. This corridor connects CAR to undertaking some sort of anti-Pak overtures every
Iran and to India through Arabian Sea. Obviously, now and then, to stay in power; hence current
the route is not only much costlier due to its length, misadventure should not be taken as last.
but also tremendously insecure as it goes through Possible Emerging Scenarios and their
Iran and Persian Gulf, regions far from stable for
long term investments and economic activities. Impact on Pakistan’s National Security
The only alternative short and direct route for It is evident from the analysis so far that an
India passes through Azad Kashmir and Pakistan’s Indo – US – Israel nexus is at play against Pakistan
northern areas. Sooner or later, India will make at multiple levels to close the Kashmir chapter once
a move to extend its jurisdiction over this area; and for all. Hence, it is now prudent to examine
current overture in IOJK may have this latent desire the possible outcomes of Indian political discourse
imbedded in it. vis-à-vis Pakistan (Table Opposite).

Hindutva ideology, much like Hitler’s Nazism, believes in supremacy of their own
faith and considers all minorities in India as impure and hence must be culled from
Indian soil

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Scenario Pakistan’s Response Ramifications

One Pakistan in a hope to ƒƒ Israel driven Palestine Model applied on Kashmiris

evade clash with India and struggle totally subdued. Genocide, extraditions,
accepts post August 5th mass RSS /Hindu settlements will totally change the
Kashmir as new normal demography and Pakistan’s claim will be defeated.
ƒƒ Disappointed /discouraged and weakened Kashmiris
may turn hostile towards Pakistan and accept solution
within Indian folds.
ƒƒ India satisfied with strategic partners and ready to serve
their interests in the region (especially against Pakistan
& China).
ƒƒ US /Israel may be offered military bases in IOJK.
ƒƒ Emboldened India will ask Pakistan to handover Azad
Kashmir. Open attack is a possibility and World may
accept this as well.
ƒƒ Next step towards AKHAND BHARAT, to absorb Pakistan
is taken at an opportune time in future.

Two Pakistan seeks a solution ƒƒ Though this plan sounds the most feasible, but in
based on division of reality it will be least probable due to extreme internal
Kashmir into 3 parts. pressures both in India and Pakistan; more so in India.
Pakistan sheds away AJK, ƒƒ If anything like this materializes, it will not help securing
India sheds away Valley. Pakistan’s strategic interests.
Northern Areas go to
Pakistan, while Laddakh ƒƒ Some factions of Kashmiris will be happy.
goes to India. Or a similar ƒƒ Most of the global stakeholders in the region will term it
agreement based on as responsible intervention of the world power(s).
Chenab Formula.
ƒƒ India will compromise on Valley only, while Pakistan
will have to compromise on entire AJK.
ƒƒ US would intervene as moderator with pledge of
providing security to newly established free Kashmiri
state and for that it may seek to establish military bases
at Srinagar and Muzafarabad.
ƒƒ China will never like this solution. Such an agreement
by Islamabad may affect adversely on bilateral ties with
Beijing.
ƒƒ India will witness an internal uprising against such
a scheme by right wing politicians and intelligentsia
leading to another conflict with free Kashmir or with
Pakistan.
ƒƒ Having settled the core issue of Kashmir with India,
Pakistan will now be convinced / motivated / coerced to
de-nuclearize as a responsible nation state.
ƒƒ Pakistan armed forces will lose their credibility as a
force to deter, that has promised to fight for Kashmiris
till last bullet and last soldier. Morale within the rank
and file will be shattered.
ƒƒ Propaganda against Pak Army being a corporate entity
rather than a defense force will intensify and will get
more traction among locals.
ƒƒ Due to massive internal pressure on both sides, threat of
a war like situation will still prevail.

Green Book 2020 39

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Scenario Pakistan’s Response Ramifications

Three Pakistan takes bold and ƒƒ This is most practical and dignified option for Pakistan.
principled decision and It will yield internal cohesion as well.
responds to SOS call of ƒƒ Pakistan Army will get invaluable vote of confidence,
Kashmiris, and supports not only from local masses but from across the world by
native freedom struggle those who are being oppressed.
through aggressive
diplomacy. ƒƒ Pakistan will get its true leadership role.
ƒƒ Pakistan’s water security will be ensured like never
before.
ƒƒ Pakistan will have to pay some price with a possibility of
a war like situation on international border with India.
Even then, entire nation will back armed forces.

Four Pakistan delays its ƒƒ Devastating effect for Kashmiris, Pakistanis and armed
response and India forces.
consolidates and ƒƒ IOJK will be lost forever and for real.
succeeds in changing the ƒƒ Pakistan may have to face massive influx of refugees
demography of the Valley. fleeing from IOJK to save their lives similar to Syrian and
Palestinian refugees.
ƒƒ Potential threat for a high intensity war with India still
be prevailing as Delhi will take Pakistan’s indecision as
a sign of weakness.

A critical appraisal of the above scenarios focused goal of extracting authentic information
suggests that Pakistan will have to walk a very from stakeholders in IOJK most importantly from
thin line to fight for the Kashmir cause. Biggest general public facing the brutalities of Indian
challenge is that Pakistan will have to take the oppressive forces. Once information gathered, FO
initiative and yet not to be seen as an aggressor must disseminate it with proper narrative of the
as per international law. Having tested Pakistan’s state of Pakistan.
response in February 2019, India may not escalate
the situation along LoC any further than routine A single video clip or picture can change
ceasefire violations, without consolidating control the perception of India, which it has built so
over IOJK. India’s best bet in current scenario is to painstakingly over the years. Pakistan needs to
maintain status-quo with a complete information keep world attention on IOJK and in order to do
and media control on developments inside IOJK that communication links inside the valley must
particularly in the valley. This is where Pakistan be established. Indian decision of communication
will have to respond along with aggressive, non- blackout in IOJK was not random, but part of
apologetic and bold diplomacy. Proactive Foreign the planning. Pakistan’s response in these two
Office (FO) will produce results. If Pakistan keeps domains will be purely non-kinetic, denying any
waiting for Indian action to react; Islamabad will involvement of arms. If executed properly and
be playing a losing game from the very onset. a local uprising occurs inside IOJK, it will make
it extremely difficult for India to keep selling the
Policy Recommendations terrorism card on IOJK. Burhan Wani was a local
So far, Pakistan has given a standard response hero, India could not blame his action on Pakistan.
to Indian action of August 5th. Prevailing security Only a native uprising will be just and politically
crisis however, demands a robust and out of box defendable for Pakistan on international forums.
solution, and that too in quick time. International Even such an uprising will need support in the
community at best, will not go beyond condemning information domain.
India over human rights violations in IOJK. In EW Spectrum would be critical as it will enable
order to do that Pakistan will have to take the war Pakistan to keep Indian preparation in check.
into non-kinetic domains: There is a possibility that India creates a deception
ƒƒ Information / Cyber Warfare in IOJK and opens war across IB on a spot like
Pakistan’s soft-belly (Rahim Yar Khan - Kashmore)
ƒƒ Electronic Warfare (EW) Spectrum
to sever Karachi from rest of Pakistan. There are
Relevant establishments must provide support rumors suggesting similar planning going on in
to diplomatic efforts being done by government Indian military headquarters; Pakistan must take
through operations in these two domains with requisite safeguards.

40 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

conferences and round tables with local

Due to RSS/BJP actions in IOJK, intellectuals about Indian oppression in the
future of 8 million Kashmiri Muslims valley.
is at stake with a probability of their Conclusion
systematic genocide or forced exodus Indian government has gravely endangered the
from their native land global peace by unilaterally changing the status of
disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir. Due to RSS/
BJP actions in IOJK, future of 8 million Kashmiri
Pakistan must also keep refining standard Muslims is at stake with a probability of their
diplomatic response along with taking into systematic genocide or forced exodus from their
consideration above mentioned suggestions. native land. The subsequent strategic situation
Few areas where improvement can be made are demanded an appraisal to assess the way forward
mentioned below: for the state. This paper is an attempt in the same
ƒƒ Pakistan, according to UN charter, can direction. It argued and examined various vertices
openly help Kashmiris in their fight. Indian of Kashmir’s geography, its linkage with national
intervention in East Pakistan and recent security and impacts of various policy options.
Syrian conflict between Russia and the US are Pakistan will have to act proactively. Standard
clear examples. diplomatic response will not be enough and a
delay in decisive line of action will be suicidal.
ƒƒ India may try to capture areas 5 to 7 km inside
AJK to make claim on the area. Pakistan army Pakistan must ensure regional peace by
must have own similar plans and be executed adopting an aggressive and just policy on Kashmir,
preemptively. while also ensuring that state must not be seen
as aggressor till the time an armed conflict with
ƒƒ Question of Kashmir must be debated among
India becomes inevitable. Information and EW
legislators on regular basis so that policy can
Spectrum domains must be explored for non-
be kept proactive rather than calling session
kinetic operations against Indian political and
of parliament on special occasions. Kashmir’s
military leadership so that Pakistan can expose
importance as vital strategic national interest
Indian atrocities and can achieve higher moral
must be seen by whole nation. Kashmir
ground before any open conflict.
demands and deserves more pragmatism than
emotional outburst.
Farzana Shah is a Peshawar based journalist
ƒƒ Pakistan’s foreign policy needs more having Masters in Journalism & Mass
consistency, more inclusiveness of security Communication with over 12-year experience
institutions and constant review of emerging in Media including print, electronic, broadcast.
developments around the world particularly Contributes to different national, international
in South Asia. news-wires on geopolitical, defence, strategic
ƒƒ Kinetic intervention from Pakistan has proven affairs. Won International Award in Journalism.
counter-productive as far as larger goals of
Kashmir’s freedom is concerned. It created Notes
problems locally as well. State must adopt 1. “2,000 Sat Phones, Drones, 35k Troops: How PM Modi Prepped for Article
transparent policy in this regard. Proscribed 370 Endgame.” Hindustan Times, August 6, 2019. https://www.hindustan-
times.com/india-news/imran-khan-s-us-visit-weak-oppn-sped-up-article-370-
organizations must remain ineffective and endgame/story-Nqm9IVeETtkae2mzmVr4BK.html
immobile. 2. Ibid.

ƒƒ Pakistan must establish a dedicated and 3. Ibid.

permanent desk at FO focused on human 4. Online, FE. “PoK Should Be United with India, Asserts Subramanian Swamy.”
The Financial Express. The Financial Express, August 24, 2019. https://www.
rights violation in India against minorities. financialexpress.com/india- news/pok-should-be-united-with-india-asserts-
These efforts must be driven not by shallow subramanian-swamy/1685302/.

patriotism, but true humanitarian grounds. In 5. “PoK Is Part of India and One Day We Will Have Physical Jurisdiction over It:
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar - Opindia News.” OpIndia, September
this regard, contacts must be established with 17, 2019. https://www.opindia.com/2019/09/pok-is-part-of-india-and-one-
day-we-will-have-physical-jurisdiction-over-it-external-affairs-minister-s-jais-
oppressed groups within Indian society. This hankar/
desk must be tasked to constantly arranging 6. Press Trust of India. “After Article 370, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir Our Next
seminars and programs for this single purpose. Agenda: Union Minister Jitendra Singh.” NDTV.com, September 10, 2019.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/after-article-370-pakistan-occupied-kash-
Kashmir Committee must work along with this mir-our-next-agenda-union-minister-jitendra-singh-2098814
desk. 7. “The U.S.-India Nuclear Deal.” Council on Foreign Relations. Council on
Foreign Relations. Accessed September 22, 2019. https://www.cfr.org/back-
ƒƒ Especial efforts must be put on proactive grounder/us-india-nuclear-deal
diplomacy on Kashmir in P-5 nations. 8. Krishnan, Ananth. “China Unhappy over India-US Reference to South China
Pakistan embassies must conduct seminars, Sea.” India Today, October 8, 2014. https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/chi-

Green Book 2020 41

 PAKISTAN ARMY

na-warns-india-south-china-sea-modi-obama-us-209087-2014-10-08 11. Swalwell, Rep. Eric. “The Strife in Kashmir Isn’t Just about India and Pa-
kistan – It Is an Issue That Has Worldwide Military, Economic, and Moral
9. Manuel, Anja. “China Is Quietly Reshaping the World.” The Atlantic. Atlantic Consequences. My Statement: Pic.twitter.com/WZxCFUUYUV.” Twit-
Media Company, October 20, 2017. https://www.theatlantic.com/internation- ter. Twitter, September 12, 2019. https://twitter.com/repswalwell/sta-
al/archive/2017/10/china-belt-and-road/542667/ tus/1172155953317339138
10. Online. “Russia Reportedly Becomes Part of CPEC.” The Nation. The Nation,
November 25, 2016. https://nation.com.pk/25-Nov-2016/russia-reported-
ly-becomes-part-of-cpec

42 Green Book 2020

INDIA’S ANNEXATION
OF KASHMIR:
IMPLICATIONS &
PAKISTAN’S OPTIONS

Senator Mushahid Hussain

Abstract
Writing precisely 2 years before Modi’s blunder of annexation of IOJK on August 5,
2019, the grandniece of Jawaharlal Nehru, Nayantara Sahgal, wrote presciently in The
Guardian on August 5, 2017 that “another partition (of India) stares us in the face”.
She accused Modi’s RSS of “dividing India once again into Hindus and others, as the
RSS wants to make the country a Hindu Rashtra”. And she concluded that “we are
rapidly marching towards a horrifying future”. It is now clear that the “horrifying
future” is there in the form of annexation of IOJK by Modi’s India which is a blunder
of Himalayan proportions, unleashing consequences which cannot be controlled.
Perhaps, it can be compared on the same scale as Hitler’s foolhardy act of January 22,
1941, Operation Barbarossa, of invading the Soviet Union after he had easily conquered
Europe, with only Britain resisting. A combination of arrogance and ignorance about
ground realities backed by a fascist ideology that sought to impose its military diktat
became the first step in the unraveling of the Third Reich.
Keywords: Kashmir Dispute, Human Right Violation, IOJK, RSS, UN Resolution on
Kashmir

Green Book 2020 43

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Longest ever lockdown in IOJK

A
fter the annexation of IOJK, it is clear with New Delhi, for example, seeking their
that Modi has bitten off more than he “separate flag and constitution” as part of
can chew by spawning a crisis that broader autonomy, while the Sikhs are actively
is hitting at the heart of the Indian campaigning for a Khalistan Referendum in
State, transforming its very character 2020.
in a manner that it’s narrow-minded, bigoted
Establishment could never have anticipated. China has been alienated since
Consider the consequences and far-reaching China, now like Pakistan and the
implications of this decision: Kashmiri people, is directly a party to
ƒƒ Modi has divided India on political and the dispute because of Modi’s action to
communal lines that can have grave
implications for Indian national unity and partition IOJK and declaring Laddakh
domestic stability. a Union Territory
ƒƒ Kashmir has been internationalized in a
ƒƒ The United States, for the first time in the
manner that was never done to this extent
last few years, has not only distanced itself
not since the 1965 India-Pakistan war, with
from Modi’s aggressive rhetoric but it has
wholesale condemnation of the Indian action
from Beijing to Brussels. also refused to endorse Modi’s perspective
on Pakistan. During his meeting with the
ƒƒ The Kashmir Dispute has been discussed for Pakistani Prime Minister on September 23,
the first time in the UN Security Council since President Trump stated (referring to his joining
the 1998 nuclear tests, when the UN Security Modi at the Houston public rally a day earlier)
Council, on June 6, 1998, passed the last that “I did not know that I was going to hear that
unanimous Resolution # 1172, mentioning statement, I have to say. I was sitting there and
Kashmir by name: ‘‘Urges INDIA and I heard a very aggressive statement yesterday
PAKISTAN to resume dialogue between them on from India, from the Prime Minister” and, as
all outstanding issues... and encourages them to if in disapproval, he repeated the phrase “a
find mutually acceptable solutions that address very aggressive statement” three times, clearly
the root causes of those tensions, including expressing his disbelief and surprise at the
Kashmir”. harsh tone and tenor of Modi’s remarks before
ƒƒ Modi’s move has galvanized separatists his Indian-American constituency. And Trump
within India ranging from the Nagas who are tried to balance his praise for Modi with his
now setting new pre-conditions in their talks praise for the Pakistani Prime Minister and
even when asked about the issue of terrorism,
which Modi had referred in the context of
I did not know that I was going to Pakistan, Trump, instead of endorsing Modi,
hear that statement, I have to say. I started calling out Iran as the main culprit on
was sitting there and I heard a very terrorism. He added that the United States
had “treated Pakistan very badly in the past”
aggressive statement yesterday from and underlined that “you haven’t had a more
India, from the Prime Minister friendly President towards Pakistan (than
(President Trump) Trump)”.

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

An unprecedented curfew and complete lockdown, complete cutoff of all

communication, a situation that did not even prevail during the height of the siege
of Stalingrad or Leningrad during World War II

ƒƒ China has been alienated since China, now like Modi, who is from Gujrat, also knows that the
Pakistan and the Kashmiri people, is directly a famous Somnath Temple, located in his State, was
party to the dispute because of Modi’s action to a favourite target of Sultan Mehmood of Ghazni.
partition IOJK and declaring Laddakh a Union A deep-seated loathing of Sultan Mehmood is
Territory. It was, therefore, not surprising that embedded in the Hindutva mindset. In 1978, when
high-powered Chinese Military Delegation the then BJP Chief and Foreign Minister of India,
that visited Pakistan on August 26, included Atal Behari Vajpayee, went on an official visit to
the People’s Liberation Army Commander for Afghanistan, the only special request he made was
‘Southern Tibet’, the area on the Chinese side to visit Ghazni. His Afghan hosts were surprised,
bordering India. they said ‘‘Ghazni is just a small town, it’s not a
ƒƒ The worst possible consequences have been tourist spot, it has no 5-star hotels, why would you
within IOJK where resistance to repression has wish to go to such a place?” Vajpayee said ‘Ghazni
been rising, with an unprecedented curfew is like a thorn that continues to hurt us as Sultan
and complete lockdown, complete cutoff of Mehmood, the marauder who looted India several
all communication, a situation that did not times, came from there!” Conversely, Allama
even prevail during the height of the siege of Iqbal, who was invited by King Nadir Shah to visit
Stalingrad or Leningrad during World War II. Afghanistan in 1933, also requested for a special
6000 Kashmiris have been arrested without visit to Ghazni to pay homage to the memory of
any charges and sent outside IOJK to jails in Sultan Mehmood, in whose honour he penned a
India ranging from the octogenarian former few famous couplets. It is thus no accident that
Chief Minister Dr. Farooq Abdullah to young Modi declared his intention to “free India from
teenage girls whose only crime has been to talk 1200 years of slavery” in his speech to the Indian
of ‘Azadi’ (freedom). Parliament on June 12, 2014. Clearly, Modi’s
reference is to the period of Muslim domination in
Modi and his RSS Gang are also India as the British rule lasted for only 200 years.
fervent believers in the notion of For Pakistan, it should be clear that an
existential threat is posed by Modi’s India as
“Akhand Bharat” (Greater India). So the annexation of IOJK is the most important
a fascist India will likely become more development for South Asia since 1971, given that
aggressive with Pakistan through low- the geography of the region has been changed.
intensity conflict, proxy wars, covert Modi and his RSS Gang are also fervent believers in
the notion of “Akhand Bharat” (Greater India). So
operations, threat of war and nuclear a fascist India will likely become more aggressive
blackmail with Pakistan through low-intensity conflict, proxy
wars, covert operations, threat of war and nuclear
ƒƒ While there is a lot of bluff and bluster in blackmail.
Indian posturing, even nuclear sabre-rattling
with the August 16 statement of Defence
Minister Rajnath Singh questioning the utility
of India’s professed “No First Use” policy on
nuclear weapons. The fact is that, deep down,
the Indian Establishment, particularly the RSS
gang led by Modi, combines a curious mixture
of hatred and fear of Pakistan. They have
what can be termed as a “Mehmood of Ghazni
Complex”, in other words, a fear of the Muslim
inclination to ‘go against the tide’ to challenge
injustice and wrong irrespective of an unequal
size or strength! Sultan Mehmood of Ghazni
has always been a very fascinating figure
for the Hindutva ideologues, who, for them,
symbolises what they view as “Muslim hordes
from the North” with the Pakistan State seen as
his contemporary potential ‘successor’.

Green Book 2020 45

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Given this context, Pakistan needs to pursue

RSS is the die-hard ideological a multi-pronged strategy with a kind of clarity
Hindutva crowd who hate Muslims and commitment that Pakistani policy makers
and Pakistan, who presided over the demonstrated while building the Nuclear Bomb.
ethnic cleansing of over 2000 Muslims Once the decision was taken in 1974, the Bomb
project was pursued to its logical conclusion in
in India’s Gujrat State in 2002 and who a relentless, single minded manner, irrespective
are proud successors of the killers of of any pressures and it achieved success when
Mahatma Gandhi Pakistan detonated its own homemade nuclear
device on May 28, 1998, undoubtedly, Pakistan’s
finest hour. Such a strategy should target Modi and
This situation should also be viewed in the his RSS Gang, and separate them from the broader
context of the new global scenario where the Indian society and polity that opposes Modi, along
balance of economic and political power is shifting with a united front of all Kashmiris and the linkup
from the West to the East. The 21st Century is an of the Kashmiri resistance with other insurgencies
“Asian Century”, particularly China’s transition inside India. Close coordination with China and
from a regional to a global power. Then there are the rest of the international community through
makings of a New Cold War with the US National a strategy sustained by national stamina are the
Security Strategy of 2018 terming China and Russia need of the hour.
as a “more serious threat than Al Qaeda or ISIS”.
Therefore, Pakistan needs to understand the
nature of the challenge posed by Modi’s move:
ƒƒ The challenge is multi-dimensional: military,
diplomatic, media, legal, all of which require
sustaining a long-term strategy over a
protracted period for the rest of Modi’s term, at
least 3-5 years.
ƒƒ 70% of the battle is in the domain of public
diplomacy and propaganda, the battle of
narratives, the ‘battle of ideas’, through media,
think tanks, NGOs/civil society, human rights
groups, parliamentary diplomacy, keeping
up the Kashmiri morale while promoting a
cohesive and credible Pakistani narrative
which we can sell at home and abroad.
ƒƒ Clarity about the kind of enemy we are facing:
this is the die-hard ideological Hindutva crowd
who hate Muslims and Pakistan, who presided
over the ethnic cleansing of over 2000 Muslims
in India’s Gujrat State in 2002, who actually
believe in ‘Akhand Bharat’, and who are proud
successors of the killers of Mahatma Gandhi.
They will give no quarter and we should have
no illusions about them either, as they will go
to any extent to damage Pakistan.

The 73-page law suit by Kashmir -

Khalistan Referendum Front in a US
Court accuses Modi and Home Minister
Amit Shah as well as IOJK Commander,
Lt Gen Kanwaljeet Singh Dhillon, of
carrying out “extra-judicial killings,
wrongful deaths, crimes against
humanity’’

46 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

A good example of an unconventional approach

is the legal initiative taken by the Kashmir-Khalistan There has not been a single year
Referendum Front in an American court of law. The since 1947 when the Indian Army
73-page law suit accuses Modi and Home Minister has not been deployed within India’s
Amit Shah as well as IOJK Commander, Lt Gen borders against its ‘own people’. The
Kanwaljeet Singh Dhillon, of carrying out “extra-
judicial killings, wrongful deaths, crimes against list is long: IOJK, Mizoram, Nagaland,
humanity” against Kashmiris. The law suit against Manipur, Hyderabad, Assam,...
the Indian Prime Minister was filed under a Federal
American statute, Torture Victim Protection Act article in The New York Times of August 15, 2019,
of 1991, which allows civil suits on US soil against “Silence is the Loudest Sound” provides some
foreign officials who have violated Human Rights. useful pointers, since it says it all:
Similar law suits in European courts, which also
have a universal jurisdiction on Human Rights, ƒƒ Modi’s annexation of IOJK has a “distinct whiff
can embarrass and damage the Indian leadership of colonialism in the air”.
and expose the crimes that are being committed by ƒƒ ‘RSS is the State’ in Modi’s India.
them in the IOJK. ƒƒ ‘An Architecture of Indian fascism is quickly
For starters, the focus should be on a Pakistani being put in place’ by Modi and the RSS Gang.
narrative. Indian writer Arundhati Roy’s classic ƒƒ “There has not been a single year since 1947
when the Indian Army has not been deployed
within India’s borders against its ‘own people’.
The list is long: IOJK, Mizoram, Nagaland,
Manipur, Hyderabad, Assam,...”
To meet this existential threat, Pakistan needs
single-minded determination with clarity and
commitment. Luckily, Pakistan has got strategic
space to pursue the Kashmir cause for the next
couple of years due to changes in the regional
scenario:
ƒƒ Pakistan’s timely ‘course correction’ on the
flawed Afghan policy of the past, reinforced
by a clampdown on domestic extremism and
militancy, Pakistan will no longer be caught in
a ‘nutcracker’ like situation of being tied down
both on the Western and Eastern borders.
ƒƒ President Trump has linked his re-election in
2020 with the Afghan peace process in which
Pakistan’s role is pivotal, hence, he feels that
the road to the White House lies through
Pakistan. Sooner than later, the Afghan peace
talk will have to be revived.
ƒƒ Thanks to China, which is providing strategic
“air cover” to Pakistan through CPEC, the
Pakistan-China alliance will be further
strengthened for the common cause of a joint
strategy to counter India.
ƒƒ With the Gulf in turmoil and tensions between
Iran and Saudi Arabia, the last thing the
International Community will want is a

No matter how things change in

the world and the region, China will
firmly support Pakistan in upholding
Thousands of Kashmiris protesting against Unilateral its sovereignty, independence and
Annexation of IOJK by Modi on 5 August 2019 territorial integrity and dignity

Green Book 2020 47

 PAKISTAN ARMY

The Kashmiri determination to seek “Azadi” which is undeterred by any kind of

force, will certainly supercede India’s ‘might is right’ approach as historically ‘right
is might’

conflict between the two South Asian nuclear become a great power in the world and it is time
neighbours. for us take centre stage in the world and to make a
After India’s annexation of Occupied Jammu greater contribution to humankind.”
and Kashmir, the future course of events will The other factor is China’s growing military
depend on three factors. First, while the Indian might which was on display during the massive
attempt is to seek a semblance of ‘normalcy’ October 1, 2019, Chinese National Day military
through the diktat of their bayonets and bullets, parade in Beijing, which shows that China now
with almost a million men under arms trying to has the military prowess as well as the political
enforce the annexation as a fait accompli. The will and the economic clout to pursue its interests
Kashmiri determination to seek “Azadi” which in the region and the world. A key component of
is undeterred by any kind of force, will certainly those interests is China’s strategic partnership
supercede India’s ‘might is right’ approach as with Pakistan which, as the China’s Foreign
historically ‘right is might’. Ministry spokesman said on September 24, 2019, is
Second, Pakistan, as the principal defender “unbreakable”.
of the Kashmiri people and leading exponent of
the Kashmir cause, must maintain the resolve
India’s international image has
and stamina to sustain a long term strategy of suffered badly because of Modi’s
supporting the Kashmiri people and resisting August 5 blunder and for the first time
Indian hegemony so that the status quo, which in 30 years, the situation in IOJK is not
is untenable and unacceptable to the Kashmiri
people, is changed. Third, the China factor would
being blamed on Pakistan
be key in any strategy as China, being Pakistan’s The biggest challenge for Pakistani policy
strategic partner provides Pakistan an entry into makers is going to be on the military front as India’s
the international system, especially the UN Security international image has suffered badly because of
Council, the G-20 and the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Modi’s August 5 blunder and for the first time in
China’s leadership role in world affairs 30 years, the situation in IOJK is not being blamed
is a plus for Pakistan after having made the on Pakistan, rather the onus is on Indian actions
successful transition from a regional power to a alone. The Indian Establishment, including their
global power. As Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang military high command and the RSS Gang might
Yi stated on March 18, 2019 during his meeting wish to divert attention away from their own follies
with his Pakistani counterpart: “no matter how and crimes in IOJK and shift the onus on Pakistan
things change in the world and the region, China either via a “false flag” operation or even a tactical
will firmly support Pakistan in upholding its military move on the Line of Control. Such threats
sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity have been openly hurled by the Indian military
and dignity”. brass. For example, General Bipin Rawat, the
Indian Army Chief told the Indian media on
The China factor is also pivotal for two reasons
September 30 that “if we have to go across (the
in the context of Kashmir. China’s voice matters LOC), we will through the air or the ground route or
in the councils of power globally and when China both. The red line has been very clearly drawn as
speaks for Kashmir, that voice is heard loud and to what will be the future course of action” and in
clear. An assertive China now has a global voice the same interview, he repeated the canard about
that resonates in key world capitals. As President “Pakistani terror training camps in Balakot”.
Xi Jinping told the Communist Party Congress in
Beijing on October 18, 2017 that “China has now History teaches us that military might
cannot crush a people’s will to be free. Vietnam,
Afghanistan, racist South Africa and America’s
own experience of ‘shock and awe’ in the post
RSS Gang might wish to divert 9/11 period are instructive examples of failures of
attention away from their own follies brute force to subjugate a people determined to
and crimes in IOJK and shift the onus resist. On August 5, Modi used a tried, tested and
failed formula, deploying 900,000 armed men to
on Pakistan either via a “false flag” browbeat 8 million defence less but resilient and
operation or even a tactical military defiant Kashmiris. He assumed, like the Americans
move on the LOC did in Iraq in 2003, that it would be a ‘cakewalk’!

48 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

that we as a Nation are committed to espouse.

Modi’s India is bound to get stuck Above all, it is a test of our leadership and the
and sink in the Kashmir quagmire mettle of our people. As the Quaid-e-Azam said:
‘‘let it not be said that we did not prove ourselves
equal to the task”.
Like others of his ilk, that decision has
boomeranged and Modi’s India is bound to get Senetor Mushahid Hussain is Chairman of the
stuck and sink in the Kashmir quagmire. This action Parliamentary Committee on China-Pakistan
is a precursor of new challenges and opportunities Economic Corridor (CPEC) and founding
for Pakistan to seize and to pursue a clear doable Chairman of the Pakistan-China Institute, a
strategy that best preserves, protects and promotes non-political and non-governmental think
the interests of Pakistan and the Kashmir cause tank devoted to relations with China

History teaches us that military might cannot crush a people’s will to be free. Vietnam, Afghanistan,
racist South Africa and America’s own experience of ‘shock and awe’ in the post 9/11 period are
instructive examples of failures of brute force to subjugate a people determined to resist

Green Book 2020 49

 PAKISTAN ARMY

INDIA PAKISTAN
RELATIONS:
IN
PERSPECTIVE Ambassador
Shamshad Ahmad Khan
(Retd)

Abstract
With a lingering suspicion that India had never reconciled to sub-continent’s partition, we have been living
since independence in the shadow of India’s hostility and belligerence. This fear was not exaggerated
when Pakistan saw Sikkim, Goa, Hyderabad, Junagadh and Kashmir falling to Indian avarice. This fear is
not exaggerated today as Pakistan faces India’s continued hostility and cold-blooded realpolitik. The two
countries still remain locked in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation on the Line of Control in Kashmir and
on the frozen landscapes of the Siachen Glacier. As one of the oldest unresolved international conflicts,
Kashmir is today a nuclear flashpoint and a sombre reminder to the world that it cannot continue to ignore
the legitimate aspirations of the Kashmiri people. No amount of atrocities and humiliations will stop them
from pursuing their legitimate cause. Kashmiri youth are dying on the streets, not asking for jobs and
employment opportunities. They want nothing but freedom from Indian occupation. Their message is
loud and clear. India will do itself good by seeing the writing on the wall. Stark lessons are there to read
in history. Popular movements cannot be suppressed. Even the world’s sole super power today owes its
existence to a long and arduous war of independence. Indian leaders cannot deny the reality of their own
history. It was the War of Independence in 1857 that laid the road to India’s liberation as an independent
state. Kashmiris today are holding the Pakistan flag. It is their verdict that they are giving to the world from
the streets of the Valley and elsewhere in the occupied territory. This is the crux of the Kashmir uprising.
Keywords: Indian Hostility and Belligerence, Realpolitik, Kashmir, Nuclear Flash Point, Legitimate Freedom
Struggle, Indian Occupation, IOJK

50 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

W
e could not change our geography, Scarred physically on its very birth,
nor choose our neighbours and had
to live with geopolitical realities Pakistan’s quest for security and
emanating from a tampered survival has been as compelling as it
partition of the subcontinent that has been perilously uncertain
left a truncated Pakistan and disputed borders
as a result of last minute malafide changes in
the agreed demarcations lines. India-Pakistan develop a common nationhood. Despite their
relationship has been a troubled, and perhaps one togetherness of more than a thousand years, the
of the most complex relationships in contemporary two communities remained distinct and poles
history. With all its ramifications, it has had a apart with a different worldview altogether.
fundamental impact on Pakistan’s domestic Despite Mohammad Ali Jinnah’s efforts for Hindu-
situation, its security policy, its international Muslim unity, the beginning of the 20th century
relations, and indeed, on the course of its entire saw a line being drawn, making it impossible
post-independence history. for Hindus and Muslims to live together in India.
The 1947 partition itself was a traumatic The Muslims were left with no doubt that in the
experience with a lot of blood-shedding and one Congress ‘scheme of things’, they had no future.
of the largest migrations in the world’s history The years of independence movement in
manifesting mutual hatred and animosity the first half of the last century had brought out
between the Hindus and Muslims of India. Scarred the irreconcilable nature of the interests and
physically on its very birth, Pakistan’s quest for aspirations of the two communities. What brought
security and survival has been as compelling as it the simmering Muslim nationalism in the open was
has been perilously uncertain. To look at the future the character of the Congress rule in the Muslim
trajectory of this relationship, one must look at minority provinces during 1937-39. They could
its past and present. And to look at its past and live only on sufferance of Hindus and as “second
present, one must have a clearer understanding of class” citizens. They were convinced that it would
four basic realities: be impossible for them to continue to live in an
ƒƒ History of their conflictual relationship. undivided India after the colonial rule because
their interests would be completely suppressed.
ƒƒ Cruelty of geopolitics.
That is why the Hindus and Muslims in the
ƒƒ Complexity of the issues involved. subcontinent, having lived together for centuries,
ƒƒ Centrality of the Kashmir issue. finally opted to pursue their own destinies as two
independent nations. As the British were planning
Historic Perspective to quit India, the Congress leaders were already
Pakistan and India have several things in visualizing India in the ‘great-power’ role in the
common and the most obvious, perhaps, is their style of the 19th century great-powers. In 1946,
distrust and fear of each other. It stems from Jawaharlal Nehru as Minister for External Affairs
their legacy of conflict and confrontation that in the then Interim government claimed there
they inherited from their pre-independence era. were only four great powers in the world, namely,
In collusion with the British, the Indian National the USA, USSR, China and India. Britain did not
Congress manipulated the partition to ensure that appear in his list because Nehru thought without
Pakistan was treated only as seceding territory India, England was no great power.
with no share in India’s financial and military
assets. No wonder, on its birth, Pakistan inherited
a painful legacy of disputed borders and forced
accession of Muslim states of Hyderabad, Junagadh
and Kashmir.
Those of us familiar with the history of the
subcontinent know why having lived together
for centuries, Hindus and Muslims could not

What brought the simmering Muslim

nationalism in the open was the
character of Congress rule in Muslim
minority provinces during 1937-39. They
could live only on sufferance of Hindus
and as “second class” citizens Gandhi with Mountbatten

Green Book 2020 51

 PAKISTAN ARMY

After Nehru had swallowed the bitter pill of Partition, he vainly hoped, as did
Sardar Patel, that Pakistan would prove insolvent after it was born and, not in the
too-distant future, Jinnah and Liaquat would beg forgiveness and ask for permission
to re-join India’s union

In other words, India was already being that belonged to it. Even the announcement of the
conceived as the successor of the British in new borders was delayed for malafide reasons. A
the East. Alluding to Pakistan, Nehru claimed hurried transfer of power gave Pakistan no time to
it will eventually survive only as a culturally prepare itself for the challenges of a new state.
The vindictive attitude of the Hindu majority to
Pakistan’s creation at that time was best summed
up by Sir Francis Tuker: “In effect what they said
was “Well, if the Muslims want Pakistan, let them
damned well have it and with vengeance. We shall
shear every possible, every inch of their territory
to make it look silly and to ensure that it is not a
viable country and when they have got what’s left,
we’ll ensure that it can’t be worked economically.”1
There is no denying the fact that the Indian
leadership never reconciled to the existence of
Pakistan. They opposed its creation tooth and nail
on one pretext or the other.
After Nehru had swallowed the bitter pill of
Partition, he vainly hoped, as did Sardar Patel,
1947 - Migration to Pakistan during Partition
that Pakistan would prove insolvent after it was
born and, not in the too-distant future, Jinnah
autonomous area with no independent political and Liaquat would beg forgiveness and ask for
character. This was the thinking behind the last- permission to re-join India’s union. Earlier, Nehru
minute manipulations by the Congress leaders to had spoken the Indian mind by lamenting “the
ensure in collusion with the British that the new proposals to allow certain parts to secede was
state of Pakistan was left as truncated as possible painful for any one of us to contemplate”. India
to make its survival as a state difficult if not thus spared no opportunity to undo Pakistan or
impossible. To this end, they tried to have NWFP even to wear it down as it eventually did in 1971. No
now kpk excluded from the territories which were wonder, the two countries have built a huge legacy
to constitute Pakistan. of conflict and confrontation.
As part of this move, Gandhi even introduced
the idea of Pakhtoonistan or an independent North- The Congress leaders had accepted
West Frontier Province. But thanks to the Quaid’s the June 1947 Partition Plan only as a
foresight and vigilance, not only the NWFP in a tactical move. Their ultimate strategic
referendum overwhelmingly voted for Pakistan but
also the latter became a reality, not as a culturally goal remained to rule over the entire
autonomous entity but as an independent, Subcontinent
sovereign member of the international community.
Meanwhile, the Congress leaders had accepted the Quaid’s Warning
June 1947 Partition Plan only as a tactical move. After Pakistan’s independence, the Quaid’s
Their ultimate strategic goal remained to rule over visualized Pakistan’s policy of peaceful co-
the entire Subcontinent. They hoped the two- existence in strict adherence to the purposes and
nation idea will soon be discarded by all. principles of the UN Charter in the following words:
These wishful expressions were not mere “There is nothing that we desire more ardently than
statements. They were reflection of Congress’s to live in peace and let others live in peace without
calculated future game-plan which was to be outside interference.”2 As a leader of the nation,
played out in collusion with the British. They Quaid-e-Azam was however fully cognizant of the
had already joined together in manipulating the threats to the new state of Pakistan in the very
partition plan, first by advancing the date for the beginning of its independent statehood. The Quaid
transfer of power from June 1, 1948 to August 15, warned his people “to be aware of their enemies
1947, and then fiddling with the Radcliffe Award who do not wish well to Pakistan and would not
to deprive Pakistan of the Muslim majority areas like it to grow and be powerful”.

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dismember Pakistan, the worst that could happen

Those who unwisely think that they to any country in the contemporary world.
can undo Pakistan are sadly mistaken.
Nothing on earth now will succeed in The tragic events of 1971 remain
touching Pakistan whose roots are now scarred into the Pakistani psyche,
deeply laid creating an indelible fear and
(Quaid-e-Azam) apprehension of India’s continued
hostility and belligerence
He knew they would like to see it destroyed
at its very inception. But he warned: “those who Stark Reality
unwisely think that they can undo Pakistan Challenges of geopolitics are crucial for any
are sadly mistaken. Nothing on earth now will state. In our case, they have been of exceptional
succeed in touching Pakistan whose roots are nature. To start with, Pakistan’s geopolitics gave
now deeply laid.”3 What the Quaid in fact said it a truncated territory and disputed borders with
was that Pakistan had come to stay and there is no India managing last-minute, surreptitious changes
power on earth that can undo it.4 Indeed, India’s in the Radcliffe Award that deprived Pakistan of
cherished dream has always been to weaken and some of the most strategically located Muslim-
undo Pakistan or to quote Jawaharlal Nehru, to majority areas. These included the districts of
reincorporate Pakistan into an Indian dominated Ferozepur and Gurdaspur which provided India
confederation. This burning desire on the part of an easy access to the State of Jammu and Kashmir
Congress leaders was not merely an emotional which it was to later occupy forcibly as part of its
urge. ‘grab strategy’ in total breach of the June 3, 1947
It was dictated solely by the self-interest, Partition Plan.
as Pakistanis see it, of an ambitious people who Territorially, on its birth, Pakistan was a
wished always to be on top. Pakistan, in Indian unique example. It was a house divided, not
eyes, stood in the way of fulfilling their dream against itself but by a thousand miles of hostile
of regional hegemony and dominance. Unless India’s territory. With no parallel anywhere in the
Pakistan was weak and vulnerable, India’s world, Pakistan came into being like the Siamese
supremacy in the region and beyond would Twins with its two halves joined together by just a
remain just a dream. While India has spared little bit of ‘heart and mind’ connection. The ‘heart
no effort to weaken and annihilate Pakistan, its and mind’ connection was too weak to withstand
dream of unchallenged supremacy at regional and the pressures of physical separateness, and within
global levels remains as elusive as ever. The wars less than quarter of a century it got severed brutally
they have been fighting were the wars between through India’s military intervention. The cruelty
two ideologies though the apparent causes looked of geopolitics did not end with our country’s
different. dismemberment.
The physical separation of more than a India still militarily occupies a vast territory,
thousand miles between the two wings without including Kashmir, Siachen, Kargil and water
a common border and surrounded by Indian sources that belonged to us. The tragic events of
territory and influences led to constant political, 1971 remain scarred into the Pakistani psyche,
economic and social conflicts between the two creating an indelible fear and apprehension of
parts of Pakistan; a situation that India found
tempting to break Pakistan apart. The 1971 war,
a typical example of India’s aggressive designs
against Pakistan, was not a war in its conventional
sense. It was a domestic political crisis in which
India intervened militarily and managed to

The 1971 war, was not a war in

its conventional sense. It was a
domestic political crisis in which India
intervened militarily and managed to
dismember Pakistan, the worst that
could happen to any country in the Indra Gandi and Mujeeb Ur Rehman Signing
contemporary world Treaty of Friendship

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Indian strategists speak openly of a greater India exercising a dominant position

in an area ranging from Iran to Thailand. India is also positioning itself to control
the Indian Ocean militarily; its naval and air power programs point clearly in that
direction― as do politically guided efforts to establish for India strong positions,
with geostrategic implications in adjoining Bangladesh and Burma
(Zbigniew Brzezinski)

India’s continued hostility and belligerence. The aspirations of the people of Kashmir were
India did succeed in breaking Pakistan apart but stifled by force when India militarily occupied it
the state that Quaid-e-Azam had created as a 20th and brutally violated the partition plan.
century miracle not only survived but to India’s
dismay has in fact been thriving as an equal in Regional Hegemon
power and strength to India in all respects. Its For Pakistan, as it continues to face India’s
dream of unchallenged supremacy at regional and threat to its survival, its sole worry has been how
global levels remains as elusive as ever. to preserve and safeguard its independence and
This brings us face to face with the stark territorial integrity. India is also a threat to the
reality of our geo-political environment that makes regional as well as global peace and security. In
Pakistan’s relations with India the “centre-point” the aftermath of 9/11, the security challenges in our
of its foreign policy. Since their independence, region have been proliferating in a manner that
India and Pakistan in their adversarial mode, have has not only made us the focus of world attention
no doubt built a huge legacy of mutual mistrust but also forced us to make difficult choices in
and apprehensions that continues even after our struggle for survival as an independent state.
their independence. According to the renowned India’s aggressive designs have been a source of
American scholar-diplomat Dennis Kux who dealt concern and anxiety not only to Pakistan but also
with India and Pakistan for over two decades, to its other neighbours.
“Pakistan’s traumatic birth would have made the
India-Pakistan relationship difficult and complex
India’s aggressive designs have
under the best of circumstances”.5 been a source of concern and anxiety
Kux admitted the complexity of India-Pakistan not only to Pakistan but also to its
reality: “Even though foreign affairs did not play other neighbours
a significant role in the struggle for Pakistan, the
To make things even worse, India continues
outlines of the new country’s foreign policy quickly
to assert itself as a regional hegemon.7 It has its
emerged. Relations with India overshadowed
ambitions not only to dominate the periphery of
everything else.” He added: “Perhaps more
Indian Ocean but also the vast areas from Iran
normal if not friendly ties might have evolved
to the Straits of Malacca. A renowned American
had the dispute over the Princely State of Jammu
strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski confirms this dreary
& Kashmir not provided a chronic flashpoint to
phenomenon: “Indian strategists speak openly
embitter relations between India and Pakistan.”6
of a greater India exercising a dominant position
in an area ranging from Iran to Thailand. India is
also positioning itself to control the Indian Ocean
militarily; its naval and air power programs point
clearly in that direction― as do politically guided
efforts to establish for India strong positions, with
geostrategic implications in adjoining Bangladesh
and Burma.”8
An eminent Indian security analyst C. Raja
Mohan also admits this reality by claiming
that India’s grand strategy divides the world
into three concentric circles. “In its immediate
neighbourhood, India seeks primacy and a veto
over actions of outside powers. In its extended
neighbourhood stretching across Asia and the
Indian Ocean littoral, India seeks to balance the
Jawaharlal Nehru, Thiru Kamaraj, Indira Gandhi influence of other powers and prevent them from
undermining its interests. At the global stage, India
and Lal Bahadur Shastri seated before the map of seeks to take its place as one of the great powers, a
‘Akhand Bharat’ on 21 February 1952 key player in global peace and security.”9

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In this alarming backdrop, all countries in Because of its sheer size and centrality, India
South Asia have reason to be concerned over India’s has in fact sought to remain more or less alone
hegemonic designs. No wonder, political tensions as an exclusive power asserting itself as no less
and bilateral disputes have further vitiated the than ‘primus inter pares’ (first among the equals)
regional environment. In Pakistan’s case, India without having to be identified in tandem with
not only refuses to solve its old problems but also the rest of sovereign states in its surrounding.
keeps creating new problems to keep Pakistan The complexity of these issues is rooted in South
under pressure. At work in Delhi is the Chanakya Asia’s turbulent political history, its geo-strategic
mindset “The enemy of my enemy is importance, its untapped economic potentials, and
my friend.” India has also been the gravity of its problems impacting the overall
using Afghanistan to destabilize global security environment. No wonder, South
Pakistan. A ruling BJP leader was Asia is today “the most dangerous place on earth”
blunt enough to suggest that where peace is hostage to one miscalculation.
“India cannot make progress
unless Pakistan This reality itself, as a poignant reminder of
is finished this region’s critical importance for regional peace
off.” and stability, brings us face to face with three key
conflict areas or flashpoints deeply impacting
South Asia’s security paradigm, namely, the Afghan
turmoil, the India-Pakistan gridlock and the post-
9/11 power imbalances in the region. Serious
economic and social challenges that this vast
region now faces have been compounded by long-
standing intra-regional tension and unresolved
disputes. The situation is being aggravated by
growing nuclear and military disparities in the
region as a result of global double standards.10

Afghan lady o cers being trained at OTA Chennai, India Ominous Nexus
Claiming that war between India and Pakistan The overall security complex in South Asia is
has become inevitable, he advised the Government aggravated by the new power configuration with
of India to join hands with Afghanistan and a growing Indo-US nexus giving India a strategic
destroy Pakistan as soon as possible. Obviously ascendancy in the region with an unprecedented
for Pakistan, India’s continued belligerence and role and influence in Afghanistan that it uses for
hostility remain a perennial threat to its security covert subversion and sabotage in Pakistan’s tribal
and survival. In fact, from the very beginning areas and Balochistan bordering Afghanistan.
of its independent statehood, Pakistan has
been confronted with serious challenges that A ruling BJP leader was blunt
perhaps no other country in the world has ever enough to suggest that “India cannot
experienced. In the process, it has been a victim
of wars and conflicts resulting from India’s cold-
make progress unless Pakistan is
blooded realpolitik. finished off’’
India’s oversized territorial centrality in our As we fulfilled our obligations in the post 9/11
region indeed creates many problems including the US-led war on terror, we saw the US developing
fear of domination among its smaller neighbours a new ominous equation with India at the cost
and a host of border and ethnic issues and water
of Pakistan’s legitimate security interests. This is
disputes in the region all of which involve India,
how India-Pakistan conflict found surreptitious
be it India-Pakistan, India-Bangladesh or India-
induction into the murky Afghan theatre.
Nepal. Also, all SAARC countries share borders
with India but not with each other, with the Afghanistan is an area of fundamental strategic
exception of Afghanistan which shares border importance to Pakistan and India’s subversive
with Pakistan. This unique geographic feature presence in its backyard has been a serious
limits the scope of genuine regional cooperation threat to Pakistan’s legitimate security interest.
and also casts ominous shadows on the prospects If the Soviet presence in Cuba almost triggered a
of peace in our region. nuclear war in the early 1960s, India’s continued

US is developing a new ominous equation with India at the cost of Pakistan’s

legitimate security interests. This is how India-Pakistan conflict found surreptitious
induction into the murky Afghan theatre

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

Country-specific preferential treat-

ment that India is receiving is not
only widening nuclear imbalances in
the region, but also undermining the
prospects of India-Pakistan restraint
and stabilization

are no service to the peoples of the region. Since

Pakistan’s actions in the nuclear and missile fields
at each stage are force majeure in response to
India’s escalatory steps, an element of mutuality in
restraint and responsibility is required for nuclear
and conventional stabilization in our region.
Obviously, in the face of India’s fast developing
capabilities, including its dangerous weapon-
inductions, aggressive doctrines and devious
nuclear cooperation arrangements, equally
dangerous options in response become inevitable.
Already, India’s triad-based nuclear doctrine, its
ascendancy in Afghanistan will remain a danger aggressive ‘Cold Start’ strategy and its introduction
of no less gravity to the already volatile security of anti-ballistic missile system constitute ‘overkill’
environment of this nuclearised region. The risk for the region’s security. A nuclearised region
of an India-Pakistan proxy war in Afghanistan is cannot afford any more adventurism, not even
fraught with perilous implications for regional and a limited conventional war that India’s devious
global peace and must be averted at all costs. doctrine now seeks to impose on Pakistan through
Unfortunately, enough attention was never an intense conventional offensive.
given to the genuine need for sustainable peace Our main concern has always been to offset
and security in this volatile region. If the turbulent India’s superior conventional strength. The only
political history of this region had any lessons, credible response has to be a counter force which
world powers’ engagement in this region should in the dreary India-Pakistan scenario could only
have been aimed at promoting strategic balance be tactical warheads. On its part, Pakistan is
rather than disturbing it. They should have been opposed to a nuclear and conventional arms race
taking steps to encourage India-Pakistan dialogue in the region and remains committed to restraint
for peaceful settlement of their disputes. They and stabilization through credible minimum
should have also been eschewing discriminatory deterrence as our doctrinaire policy. We have made
policies in dealing with this volatile nuclear several proposals to India including the Strategic
equation, the only one in the world that grew up in Restraint Regime involving three interlocking
history totally unrelated to the Cold War. elements: conflict resolution, nuclear and missile
But this never happened. The US not only restraint, and conventional balance.
dehyphenated Pakistan from India, bracketing it India remains averse to our proposals citing
with the stone-aged Afghanistan but also signed its extra-regional concerns although its force
a long-term multi-billion-dollar military pact with potential largely remains Pakistan-specific. Peace
India in 2006 and then in 2008, it entered into a in our region will come not through discriminatory
country-specific discriminatory nuclear deal with country-specific military and nuclear deals’ but
India introducing an ominous dimension to the only through equitable approaches that promote
already unstable security environment of this vast meaningful dialogue and constructive engagement
region. Country-specific preferential treatment for conflict-resolution and peaceful co-existence.
that India is receiving is not only widening nuclear
imbalances in the region but also undermining
the prospects of India-Pakistan restraint and Pakistan is opposed to a nuclear
stabilization.
and conventional arms race in the
It has already emboldened India in its
intransigent no-dialogue policy. Any measures that region and remains committed to
contribute to widening of strategic imbalances, restraint and stabilization through
lowering of nuclear threshold and fueling of arms credible minimum deterrence as our
race between the two nuclear-armed neighbours doctrinaire policy
with an escalatory effect on their military budgets

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While the post-9/11 world was

focused on the US military campaign
in Afghanistan, India thought it could
take advantage of the global anti-
terror sentiment to transform IOJK into
an issue of terrorism

Perpetuation of hegemony will not serve the cause

of peace. As the largest country in the region, the
onus lies with India to inspire confidence among
its neighbours.
Critical Threshold
The events of 9/11 represented a critical
threshold in Pakistan’s foreign policy. It was
the beginning of another painful chapter in our
history. In the blink of an eye, we became a pivotal
player in another US-led long war in our region.
The tragic events of 9/11 should have served as a
catalyst to bring India and Pakistan together in when President Obama then campaigning for
addressing the underlying political and socio- his first term publicly acknowledged the need for
economic problems that in fact reflect the root an early Kashmir settlement. After the Mumbai
causes of terrorism. They should have been attacks in November 2008, the ‘K’ word abruptly
evolving common strategies to focus together disappeared from Obama’s dictionary. In a
poverty and backwardness. But India had its own calibrated diversionary campaign, India sought to
plans. link the Kashmir issue with terrorism.
While the post-9/11 world was focused on No doubt, India has been taking full advantage
the US military campaign in Afghanistan, India of Pakistan’s domestic weaknesses. India refuses to
thought it could take advantage of the global anti- return to the negotiating table until Pakistan meets
terror sentiment to transform IOJK into an issue its self-serving conditions. As it gets a sympathetic
of terrorism. After the engineered attacks on the ear in the US and elsewhere in the world on the
IOJK State Assembly building on October 1, 2001 issue of what it alleges to be Pakistan-sponsored
and the Indian parliament building in Delhi on terrorism, India smells blood thinking that now is
December 13, 2001, Pakistan was blamed for both the time for a “kill.” In its calculation, it can bring
incidents without any investigations or evidence. Pakistan to a point where it would surrender on
In a blatant show of brinkmanship, India moved the Kashmir cause. India is mistaken. Kashmir is
all its armed forces to Pakistan’s borders as well as not merely a territorial dispute. It represents the
the Line of Control in Kashmir. unfinished agenda of the June 3, 1947, Partition
Plan.
In mounting an unprecedented war hysteria,
the Indian leadership ignored the gravity of Nuclear Flashpoint
its implications. South Asia was dragged into
a confrontational mode that served no one’s On their independence, India and Pakistan
interests, not even India’s own. Intense diplomatic inherited many problems. At the heart of all their
pressure by the US and G-8 countries averted what problems is the unresolved Kashmir dispute which
could have been a catastrophic clash between the as a core issue between the two neighbours not
two nuclear states. It was again the pressure from only invokes intense feelings among their peoples
those influential powers that the stalled India- but is also inextricably linked to peace and security
Pakistan dialogue was resumed in January 2004. of the region. India and Pakistan have fought wars
In the Joint Statement of 6 January 2004, President and still remain in a conflictual mode with frequent
Musharraf pledged not to allow any ‘cross-border
activity’ from Pakistan’s soil.
Ironically, since 2006, India has sought to No doubt, India has been taking
implicate Pakistan in every act of terrorism on full advantage of Pakistan’s domestic
its soil. It blamed Pakistan for successive train
attacks in Mumbai in July 2006, Samjhota Express
weaknesses. India refuses to return to
in February 2007, and finally the Mumbai attacks the negotiating table until Pakistan
on November 26, 2008. This was also the time meets its self-serving conditions

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

violent eruptions along the Line of Control. Even the Indian opposition leaders
While all other issues are amenable to easy were not allowed to visit the occupied
solution, the Kashmir dispute invokes intense territory which is experiencing a
feelings among the peoples of both India and
Pakistan as well as the Kashmiri people. daily brutal regime of arbitrary
arrests, curfews, raids and controlled
The clash in 1948, the 1965 war, Siachen
dispute, Kargil crisis, the volatile Line of Control, checkpoints enforced by nearly
unabated war-like military deployments, 800,000 Indian soldiers
persistent water disputes, ongoing tensions
and Pakistan’s unending strategic fears and
and a sombre reminder to the world that it cannot
continue to ignore the legitimate aspirations of the
As one of the oldest unresolved Kashmiri people. The Kashmiris want nothing but
international conflicts, Kashmir is freedom from Indian occupation. Their indigenous
today a nuclear flashpoint and a struggle goes on undeterred for more than three
sombre reminder to the world that decades now with thousands of Kashmiris already
laying down their lives. Interestingly, during Prime
it cannot continue to ignore the Minister Imran Khan’s visit to Washington in July
legitimate aspirations of the Kashmiri 2019, President Trump offered to play a facilitating
people role in resolving the Kashmir issue.
This was the best- ever position taken by an
apprehensions are all directly related to IOJK. American president in recent history on India-
Their historical experiences, scars of partition, Pakistan issues. But as expected, India’s response
cultural diversities, religious fervour, wars and to this offer came in a gruesome rebuff abolishing
conflicts, India’s hegemonic designs, unrelenting Article 370 and 35-A of its Constitution which since
liberation struggle in IOJK and India’s unabated 1949 had kept a semblance of limited autonomy
human rights violations and atrocities in the for the Occupied State of Jammu and Kashmir.
occupied territory all come together in a curious To further aggravate the situation, India’s Prime
convergence in the unresolved dispute of Kashmir. Minister Modi rushed additional civil-armed troops
as part of a cold-blooded military crackdown in the
As one of the oldest unresolved international
occupied state. No wonder last few months have
conflicts, Kashmir is today a nuclear flashpoint
seen a complete shutdown with Kashmiri people
being subjected to untold hardship.
The Valley today is the scene of the biggest,
bloodiest and also the most obscure military
occupation in the world. Even the Indian
opposition leaders were not allowed to visit
the occupied territory which is experiencing a
daily brutal regime of arbitrary arrests, curfews,
raids and controlled checkpoints enforced by
nearly 800,000 Indian soldiers. Kashmiris today
feel betrayed and are demanding to be freed
from Indian military rule. Theirs is the voice of
a wronged people challenging the world’s and
India’s conscience. But no amount of atrocities
and humiliations will stop them from pursuing
their legitimate cause.
They are paying a huge price being paid in
terms of military, material, moral and human costs
in the Indian occupation of Kashmir against the

Kashmiri youth are dying on

the streets, not asking for jobs and
employment opportunities. They are
holding the Pakistan flag; it is a clear
verdict!

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wishes of its people. This is a situation without Popular movements cannot be

precedent in South Asia and with few parallels
in the world today. India is forcibly hanging on to
suppressed. Even the world’s sole super
Kashmir when the Kashmiris don’t want to have power today owes its existence to a
anything to do with India. They want nothing but long, arduous War of Independence
freedom. The Kashmiris consider Indian forces as
an occupation force. Their message is loud and
clear. The Kashmir issue is not about governance implement the Council’s resolutions. On the one
or economic packages or even “incentives for a hand, it tries to mislead the world and obfuscate
prosperous future.” the Kashmir issue by alleging that it is simply
The IOJK is today aflame with volcanic eruption about ‘cross-border terrorism and infiltration’. On
of unrelenting popular anger and frustration the other hand, it does not allow UN peacekeepers
against India’s military occupation. It is a political to check this so-called infiltration. The truth
revolt which has over the years turned into a mass is that Kashmir is neither about cross-border
movement giving a new dimension to the Kashmiri infiltration nor terrorism; it is about the denial of
struggle for freedom. Brutal military force brings an indigenous people’s inalienable right to self-
no relief to anyone. Kashmiri youth are dying on determination.
the streets, not asking for jobs and employment Ending the so-called infiltration will not end the
opportunities. They are holding the Pakistan flag. struggle for freedom of the Kashmiri people against
It is a verdict they are giving to the world on the a brutal military occupation of their homeland. To
streets of the Valley and elsewhere in the occupied misrepresent the gravity and magnitude of the
territory. This is the crux of the Kashmir uprising. Kashmiri uprising, India has been crying wolf by
India will do itself good by seeing the raising the bogey of “terrorism.” What it doesn’t
writing on the wall. Stark lessons are there to understand is that there is no going back for the
read in history. India’s efforts to obfuscate the people of IOJK. Woefully, the UN has washed its
Kashmir dispute as an issue of terrorism will hands off in IOJK by signaling to India that ‘it’s
not succeed. With resurgence of the liberation your problem’. But the world community has an
struggle, Kashmir is again at the global centre obligation to facilitate a Kashmir settlement.
stage. Popular movements cannot be suppressed. The Kashmir settlement has to be in
Even the world’s sole super power today owes its accordance with the wishes of the Kashmiri
existence to a long, arduous war of independence. people, impartially ascertained, in conditions
Indian leaders cannot deny the reality of their of freedom from intimidation and coercion. It’s
own history. It was the War of Independence in indeed a colossal challenge that can be met only
1857 that laid the road to India’s liberation as an through compliance with the UN Security Council
independent state. resolutions pledging to the people of Kashmir their
India is not a superpower, but it aspires to inalienable right of self-determination. Excessive
be one. It seeks to be a permanent member of the reliance on military force and coercion will only
UN Security Council, and yet it is unwilling to jeopardize the cause of peace.

FM Qureshi announces formation of ‘Kashmir Cell’ in FO

Green Book 2020 59

 PAKISTAN ARMY

We will teach you a lesson this time that you will never forget. Let there be
no misunderstanding that Pakistan’s armed forces are ready to foil any Indian
aggression
(PM Imran Khan)

Ambassador of Kashmir legitimate freedom struggle. Their cause is our

cause. Looking ahead, the challenge for us is to
In his debut appearance at the UN General
sustain the momentum and to keep the world
Assembly on September 27, 2019, Prime Minister
engaged on Kashmiris’ human rights sufferings.
Imran Khan articulated Pakistan’s principled
position on the Kashmir dispute drawing the This requires a calibrated diplomatic offensive
world’s attention to India’s atrocities in the through our serving and retired diplomats in
occupied territory where the Kashmiris are world’s major capitals and relevant global forums.
suffering the worst hardship and human rights Kashmiris are waging a valiant freedom struggle.
abuses. Earlier in his 14 August 2019 address at This time, the Kashmiris have discovered the power
the Azad Jammu and Kashmir Assembly, Imran of resilience. We must strengthen their resolve.
Khan had promised the Kashmiris that from now The only way we can do this is to strengthen their
onward, he will be their ambassador at every freedom movement through determined political,
global forum. Imran Khan has indeed fulfilled his economic, moral and diplomatic support. The
mission with courage and with conviction. Kashmiri diaspora and other oppressed Indian
His sole purpose at the UN was to wake up the minorities will obviously be a pivotal factor in this
world and sensitize it to the ongoing brutality being campaign.
perpetrated by Indian occupation forces in IOJK. The world now understands Modi’s fascist plan
On the sidelines of the General Assembly, Prime to impose a ‘final solution’ by changing Kashmir’s
Minister Imran Khan had several bilateral meetings demographic composition. This is bound to
with his counterparts from other countries drawing provoke a fierce reaction from the Kashmiri
their attention to unprecedented lockdown in the people. The prospect of an impending genocide
IOJK. Overall, the centrality of the Kashmir dispute in IOJK is a clarion call to the world community
was the focus of his efforts in New York. Drawing to act now before it is too late. Major powers and
parallels between Hitler’s Nazi regime and Modi- the UN must intervene to prevent mass murder
led India’s RSS, Imran Khan urged the world to and genocide in IOJK. They must not ignore Imran
stop India’s brutality in the IOJK. Khan’s warnings that this time an India-Pakistan
His message to Narendra Modi was loud and conflict could erupt into a nuclear apocalypse that
clear: “We will teach you a lesson this time that you must be averted at all costs.
will never forget. Let there be no misunderstanding
that Pakistan’s armed forces are ready to foil any What we need is an ‘uninterrupted
Indian aggression,” he said. At the same time,
Imran Khan assured the Kashmiris that Pakistan and uninterruptible’ dialogue to turn
will always stand by them. We will never abandon a new leaf in the embittered relations
the Kashmiris and will continue to support their between India and Pakistan

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

inevitable. What we need is an ‘uninterrupted and

uninterruptible’ dialogue to turn a new leaf in the
embittered relations between India and Pakistan.
To improve the climate, India must show its
good faith by eschewing hegemonic designs,
abandoning bellicosity and brinkmanship, and
sincerely joining Pakistan in overcoming all
bilateral problems including Kashmir. It is time
to restore peace and stability in South Asia. To
achieve that, the international community must
The world now understands Modi’s wake up to its responsibility before it is too late.
fascist plan to impose a ‘final solution’ How we conduct ourselves in dealing with
by changing Kashmir’s demographic India’s RSS-led new fascism is today the most
composition important challenge of our foreign policy. Only a
strong and stable Pakistan can withstand India’s
belligerence. Weakness always begets indignity.
Looking Ahead Instead of betraying domestic weaknesses and
vulnerabilities, we need to strengthen ourselves
Speaking of peace in our region, there can to be able to sustain our principled position on
be no two opinions on the need for durable Kashmir and other outstanding issues that India
peace between India and Pakistan – the only is currently seeking to redefine by obfuscating
two nuclear-armed neighbours with a legacy of them into the larger issue of terrorism. No law in
outstanding disputes and a history of conflictual the world can allow the inalienable right of self-
standoffs. By now, what should be clear to both determination to be branded as terrorism.
sides is that there will be no military solution to
their problems. Their problems are real and will Yes, terrorism occurs most often when a
not disappear or work out on their own as some powerful state uses its brute force to suppress the
people on both sides have lately started believing. legitimate right of a people to self-determination,
Given the complexity of the issues involved, this liberty and freedom and where it is applied to
legacy will not evaporate simply by blowing out occupy a weaker people or country. And when
the flames. there are no legitimate means of addressing the
massive and systemic political, economic and
The two countries will have to go beneath social grievances, an environment is created
the fire to extinguish it at its source. They must in which peaceful solutions often lose out
reduce mutual tensions and encourage forums against extreme and violent alternatives. In such
in media and civil society to reinforce the lobbies situations, terrorism does become a tactical tool of
in both countries for peace and stability. Kashmir asymmetric warfare by the weak and the desperate
remains the overarching factor casting shadow against the oppressor.
on the prospects of peace in the entire region. A
solution of the Kashmir dispute will have to be Self-determination is the cardinal principle
found in a manner that is acceptable to both India enshrined in the UN Charter that shaped the
and Pakistan and to the people of Kashmir. This world in the post-World War II decades. The
requires resumption of India-Pakistan dialogue to setting aside of the UN resolutions is one thing,
build up trust and confidence and an ambiance for the discarding of the principle they embodied is
mutual discussion on their disputes. quite another. The underlying cardinal principle
It’s only through constructive dialogue and of self-determination cannot be thrown overboard.
engagement, that the two countries can create We must remain steadfast in our commitment to
the needed ‘enabling environment’ for genuine this principle. Instead of begging for dialogue, we
progress towards resolving their disputes. need to strengthen ourselves to be able to sustain
Depending on progress on Kashmir and in mutual our principled position on Kashmir and other
confidence-building, the two countries in due outstanding that India is currently seeking to
course could also explore a long-term mutually redefine as terrorism.
agreed mechanism for conflict-prevention, Meanwhile, we also need to change the
conflict-resolution and peaceful settlement of world’s perception of our country, which surely
disputes. The success of this process will depend
entirely on the freshness of political approach that
the leadership in both countries will be prepared
to bring in making it a result-focused engagement.
No law in the world can allow the
inalienable right of self-determination
Surely, there will be no quick-fixes and
perhaps a long-drawn-out process would be to be branded as terrorism

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

Kashmiri Hurriyat Leadership

has many reasons and assets other than terrorism Kashmir is not a real estate issue. It concerns
and violence to be recognised as a responsible the destiny of a people who were promised their
member of the international community. We right to self-determination. The US doesn’t have
must free ourselves of the forces of obscurantism, to demarcate any boundaries. It just has to stand
extremism, violence, militancy and intolerance. In on the side of justice and legality. It should only
recent years, we have become weak and crippled facilitate resumption of the stalled India-Pakistan
domestically because of leadership miscarriages dialogue to find a solution which is in conformity
and governance failures. India has been with the aspirations of the Kashmiri people and
taking advantage of our weaknesses. Domestic which both India and Pakistan find commensurate
consolidation with special focus on security and to their legitimate security interests.
economic situation must be our priority.
Kashmir Way Forward The truth is that Kashmir is neither
On Kashmir, beyond the UN resolutions, there about cross-border infiltration nor
is no compact formula or tailor-made solution terrorism; it is about the denial of an
available for addressing this core issue. After indigenous people’s right to freedom
decades of their liberation struggle, the Kashmiri
people, inspired by similar movements for freedom
and dignity
in other parts of the world, have been waging a
As recently as the late 1990s and during the
fierce struggle against Indian military occupation
since the later part of 1989. President Musharraf era, India and Pakistan were
showing “flexibility of approach” in their quest for a
In keeping with our solidarity with the Kashmir peaceful settlement of the core issue. Obviously, they
cause, we must continue to support the legitimate knew that this would require them to move beyond
liberation struggle of the Kashmiri people and their respective stated positions (status quo) and to
sustain the momentum that our Prime Minister’s find a “practical and achievable” solution which
recent diplomatic campaign has generated at the would take into account the legitimate interests of
global level by highlighting the Indian atrocities India, Pakistan and the Kashmiri people.
and human rights abuses in IOJK. The Kashmiris
need our continued support in their legitimate In the ultimate analysis, however, the success
freedom struggle. Their cause is our cause. of any India-Pakistan peace process would depend
entirely on the freshness of political approach
To misrepresent the magnitude of the Kashmiri that both sides would be prepared to bring in with
uprising, India has been crying wolf by raising the sincerity of purpose by taking into account the
bogey of “terrorism.” The truth is that Kashmir legitimate aspirations of the Kashmiri people.
is neither about cross-border infiltration nor
terrorism; it is about the denial of an indigenous To start with, India must come out of its nay
people’s right to freedom and dignity. No matter bind. Initiation of a political dialogue between the
what the Indians claim, there is but one fair, just genuine Kashmiri leadership and the Governments
and legal solution to Kashmir as provided in those of India and Pakistan could set the stage for a
resolutions. democratic and peaceful solution.

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But one thing is clear. The task ahead is Steady improvement of relations between
not going to be easy given the complexity of the Pakistan and India requires further changes in
matters involved. There will be no quick fixes, nor the way they deal with each other. India, being
should we be rushing into hasty decisions on an the biggest country in South Asia, must lead the
issue that concerns the future of a people. way by removing fears and apprehensions among
Meanwhile, the UN must appoint an eminent its neighbours. It must abandon its hegemonic
person of an international standing like Bishop designs.
Desmond Tutu or President Carter or President The “composite dialogue” must be resumed
Mary Robinson as a Special Envoy on Kashmir. to build up trust and confidence and develop
Perhaps, it’s also time for the world’s all of mutually-beneficial cooperation. Tangible
the living Nobel Peace Laureate to wake up and progress in conflict-resolution should be visible
smell the gunpowder on the streets of IOJK. They to the people on both sides, particularly on the
must prevent the impending risk of a genocide doables: Sir Creek; Siachen; Wullar Barrage; trade
in the IOJK. The threat of an apocalyptical India- expansion; and visa liberalization.
Pakistan conflict is also fraught with a disaster of Mutual cooperation in counterterrorism
an unimaginable magnitude and must be averted should be reinforced and the joint anti-terrorism
at all cost. mechanisms be made more effective. Blame game
The world powers, including the United States in public must be avoided. Meanwhile progress
can, and should, lead the effort to achieve a fair on implementation of cross LOC CBMs must be
and lasting settlement of the dispute, fair to the ensured.
people most immediately involved and fair to Also, SAARC be revived and strengthened
its own commitments to democracy and human to make it more effective and result-oriented
rights. particularly in areas such as trade, energy, food
By doing so, the United States can strengthen security, counterterrorism, and environment.
the principles of a just Wilsonian world order. It Cooperation must be conducted on a level playing
will also earn the gratitude of generations in field to facilitate removal of restrictive trade
Kashmir, in Pakistan and even in India itself. barriers.
Depending on progress in building mutual
Suggested Framework For India- trust and confidence, they could in due course also
Pakistan Relations explore a mutually agreed permanent mechanism
India and Pakistan need a clearer framework for conflict- prevention, conflict-resolution and
of principles on the basis of which to organize peaceful settlement of disputes.
future relations. The people in both countries Shamshad Ahmad Khan is a former Foreign
have suffered for too long as a result of continuing Secretary of Pakistan, Ambassador to South
tensions and conflicts and would welcome any Korea, Iran and Pakistan’s Permanent
new innovative approach that facilitates a solution Representative to the United Nations
of the Kashmir issue in keeping with the legitimate
interests of India, Pakistan and the aspirations of Notes
the Kashmiri people. 1. While Memory Serves: Sir Francis Tuker (London, Chassell, 1950) p.257

This requires a process of uninterrupted 2. Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah: Speeches and Statements as Gover-
nor General of Pakistan 1947-1948, Islamabad, 1989, p. 158.
and uninterruptable dialogue including regular 3. Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah: Speeches and Statements as Gover-
contact between the political leadership. Even the nor General of Pakistan 1947-1948, Islamabad, 1989, p. 60
issue of terrorism can be addressed as a common 4. Ibid. p. 158
threat through their existing dialogue mechanism. 5. Disenchanted Allies: The United States and Pakistan 1947-2000; Dennis
To begin with, however, India must be persuaded Kux (OUP New York) p.19

to revisit its present ‘no-talk’ policy. 6. Ibid

7. Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Dilemma: A Perennial Quest for Survival (In Print);
Adoption of a short-and long-term approach in Shamshad Ahmad
addressing the outstanding issues in contrast with 8. Strategic Vision― America and the Crisis of Global Power: Zbigniew Brzez-
efforts in the past to find an immediate solution. inski

Both countries must recognise that peace between 9. India and the Balance of Power: C. Raja Mohan; Foreign Affairs Maga-
zine-July-Aug. 2006. http//wwwforeignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2006-07/in-
them is a strategic imperative. They must renounce dia-and-balance-power.
the use of force for settlement of their bilateral 10. Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Dilemma: A Perennial Quest for Survival (In Print);
disputes. Shamshad Ahmad

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

Future War:
What Needs to be Done ?

64 Green Book 2020

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Abstract
In February 2019, Pakistan and India fought a short
war that included aerial intrusions across not only
the Line of Control (LoC) but also the international
border. The Indians claim that they had sent their
fighter jets as a ‘counter terrorism’ strike inside
Pakistani territory to target an alleged ‘militant’
training center. This was in retaliation against the
Pulwama attack on February 14, 2019 in which 40
soldiers of the Central Reserve Police Force (CPRF)
were blown up by a youth from occupied Kashmir.
The Indians blamed Pakistan based Jaish-e-
Muhammad (JeM) for this attack. Pakistan evened
the score by shooting down at least one Indian
aircraft. This brief activity did not escalate beyond
a war of words. The Indian pilot who had ejected
inside Pakistani territory was returned as an act
of goodwill. Indian PM Narendra Modi used this
clash to ratchet up the anti-Pakistan rhetoric to
bolster his sagging fortunes and win the national
elections with a landslide. The fallout of these
events proved beyond any shadow of doubt that
the nature of warfare in the crisis prone South
Asian region has changed diametrically. Round
Prof Dr Tughral Yamin One went to Pakistan but this will not be the end.
The Indians will no doubt spare no effort to undo
the embarrassment caused to them. This paper
examines the emerging threat from a number of
perspectives both military and non-military and
offers a sensible solution to avoid further relapses
into the crisis mode and offers suggestions for
bringing peace and stability in the region.
Keywords: Future War, Conflict Triggers, Surgical
Strikes, Nuclear No First Use, Cyber-Offensive,
Crisis Management

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

A
number of questions have been
thrown up after the short military con- In the crisis prone Pak India
flagration between Pakistan and India relations, there is no shortage of
in February 2019, the most pertinent conflict triggers. Most wars that India
of which is what will be the shape of and Pakistan have fought with each
future wars in the South Asian subcontinent, how
other have been over Kashmir
a potential crisis may pan out and what will be the
best way to manage it. The purpose of this paper
is to find out answers to the following questions: to attack Pakistan, at a time and place of his
What can upset the strategic apple cart in the short own choosing.3 The military offensive that he
and the long term? What tools, tactics and strat- had promised came in the wake of the guerrilla
egies will be used to fight minor skirmishes or a infiltration into occupied Jammu Kashmir in
major outbreak of hostilities under a nuclear over- August. This initiative was undertaken as part
of Operation Gibraltar to liberate the occupied
hang? What can be the possible means to defuse
territories. The seventeen day war ended in a
and manage crises? Are there any chances of con- ceasefire and the cessation of hostilities. The 1966
flict resolution between Pakistan and India? Tashkent Agreement brokered by the Soviets was
meant to resolve outstanding issues including
Potential Conflict Triggers in South Kashmir. The sudden death of the Indian Prime
Asia Minister on the last day of the parleys stymied this
In the crisis prone Pak-India relations, there initiative towards a meaningful rapprochement.
is no shortage of conflict triggers. Most wars that The 1971 war was shaped by a number of
India and Pakistan have fought with each other events. After the stalemated 1965 War, the Indians
have been over Kashmir. The first Kashmir War realized that East Pakistan was poorly defended
was an impromptu affair after the partition of and very much alienated from its western wing on
the subcontinent. The Hindu Dogra Maharaja of political grounds. The Indian leadership made a
a predominantly Muslim dominant principality long term plan to play upon this vulnerability of a
sought a strategic pause by offering a standstill state that was physically divided and separated by a
agreement to both India and Pakistan as he thousand miles of hostile territory. The Indian Army
decided the fate of his fiefdom. The atmosphere General Manekshaw cautioned the government
in Kashmir was on short fuse and a rebellion soon against any hasty steps. He recommended a
broke out in Poonch and Gilgit Baltistan against military offensive after the monsoons had ended
the tyrannical rule of the Maharaja. A ragtag band and the rivers were no longer in spate.4 The inter
of freedom fighters from the Frontier mounted on regnum was to be occupied by a prolonged civil
dilapidated lorries and carrying primitive weapons war to weaken Pakistani forces deployed in East
moved in to support their Kashmiri co-religionists. Pakistan. In the guise of humanitarian aid, Prime
The tribesmen had no training in modern means Minister Indira Gandhi let in Bengali refugees
of warfare and were without air cover and and from among them raised and equipped Mukti
artillery support. Even before Nehru’s notorious Bahini (Freedom Fighters) to fight Pakistan Army
aide Krishna Menon could force the Maharaja in a long drawn civil war.5 Meanwhile, she travelled
to sign a dubious instrument of accession,1 the the world to advocate the cause of an independent
Indian Army had rushed in a battalion of the Sikh
regiment by air to prevent the liberation of Jammu
& Kashmir.2 Some areas were indeed liberated as a
result of fragmented fighting in which initially the
Pakistani Army officers fought, while they were
officially on leave.

The 1971 war was shaped by a

number of events. After the stalemated
1965 War, the Indians realized that East
Pakistan was poorly defended and very
much alienated from its western wing
on political grounds
After the short border skirmish in the Rann
of Kutch in April 1965, Indian Prime Minister
Lal Bahadar Shastri followed through his threat

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

Bangladesh and secure her diplomatic front by

securing a twenty year friendship treaty with the
USSR.6 The fall of East Pakistan was the result of
a well-planned diplomatic and military offensive
and a sympathetic local population.
In 1984 India surreptitiously occupied the
vacant area north of NJ 9842 in the Siachin Glacier.
It was largely reminiscent of the Indian forward
policy in NEFA in 1962. Many analysts have
considered Siachin as an easily resolvable issue
or a low hanging fruit that is ready to be plucked
but it has fallen prey to Indian obduracy.7 Siachin
also indicates the inflexibility of the Indians to
negotiate on any bilateral issue, particularly when
it concerns Kashmir.
After the introduction of the nuclear deterrent
in 1998, an element of strategic stability was
introduced into the tense and turbulent Pak
India relations. Deterrence did not break down,
despite a military skirmish in the glacial heights
of Kargil in 1999. Senior Indian generals ignored
intelligence warnings of Guerrilla infiltration at T-72 tanks of the Indian Army
their own peril and by the time they woke up, they photographed near Pathankot in 2001
had lost about 200 square km of territory.8 Belated
counter attacks were launched all along the areas
of the infiltration. Air and artillery were thrown 13 December 2001, allegedly by Pakistan backed
in.9 Due to the nuclear deterrence, the hostilities militants. There was a feeling within the Indian
remained confined to the area of operation and camp that they could repeat the US formula of
both countries continued to operate below the
perceived nuclear threshold. The hostilities ceased Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) was meant
after the US intervention was sought. After July to cut long and tedious processes
4 meeting with President Clinton, the terms of
withdrawal and ceasefire were defined. Clinton of mobilization to launch shallow
clearly told Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to respect maneuvers short of the perceived
the sanctity of the LoC in future.10 nuclear thresholds
In 2001, the Indian leadership found an
opportunity to mobilize and concentrate its forces attacking Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks to
along the international border for an extended defeat and destroy Al Qaeda and their hosts –
period of ten months in a bid to coerce and the Taliban Government in Afghanistan. The
browbeat Pakistan.11 The cause for this aggressive Indians expected international approval of their
posture was an attack on the Indian parliament on actions and a condemnation of Pakistan’s alleged
sponsorship of an act of terror given the new
international frenzy against terrorism.
After this episode, India threatened Pakistan
with war in case of any terrorist sponsored attack
from its territory. This kind of thinking led to the
policy planners in the South Block to come up
with a pro-active doctrine (PAD), more popularly
known as the Cold Start Doctrine (CSD). This
was meant to cut long and tedious processes of
mobilization to launch shallow maneuvers short
of the perceived nuclear thresholds. This strategic
thought became fashionable in the post the 2001-
02 standoff period. The Indians received a tacit
approval from their new strategic partners the US
in this approach. The US made it clear that it would
allow India to retaliate in case of a major terrorist
attack, if it was with Pakistani involvement.
However, the Indian reaction after the November

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7, 2008 attack against the Indian commercial hub

of Mumbai did not translate into a conventional air
and land offensive. A group of raiders on a rubber
dinghy had entered and held a major Indian city
hostage for two days. About 200 people had been
killed including American tourists but apart from
an escalation of fiery rhetoric, deterrence held.
CSD was not operationalized.
This remained the pattern after a series of
attacks against Indian military establishments in
occupied Jammu and Kashmir until the Indians
came up with what their Army Chief called surgical
strikes. A series of probing attacks along the Line
of Control (LoC) were successfully repulsed. The
much trumpeted surgical strikes did not penetrate Probable Tools, Tactics and Strategies
deep into Azad Kashmir to interdict the so-called
terrorist launch pads or bases.12
for a Future War in the Backdrop of a
Nuclear Overhang
As long as there is the unresolved Wars in 1965 and 1971 were conventional wars
fought in the classical Second World War mode.
issue of IOJK there will be plenty of The battles fought were tactical in nature and
triggers to cause another crisis in the large infantry and armored maneuvers took place
future in textbook fashion. This form of warfare had been
taught to the post-independence crop of leadership
In the early morning hours of 14 February in Pakistani and Indian Staff and War Colleges.
2019, Adil Ahmed Dar, a Kashmiri youth, who The commanders at all levels were also under the
influence of the military campaigns of the two
had been beaten by security forces blew up his
world wars that had been part of their military
explosive laden vehicle against a bus carrying
history syllabus in their military academies and
Central Police Reserve Force (CPRF), killing 40 of basic arms schools and formed part of their
them. A group claiming itself to be Pakistan based promotion examination syllabus.
Jaish-i-Muhammad (JeM) claimed responsibility.
India took this as another opportunity for a strike Things changed drastically after the
back. After waiting for a fortnight the Indian introduction of nuclear weapons in South Asia
Air Force (IAF) launched a so-called ‘counter in 1998 and brought about a paradigm shift in
terrorism’ strike on the tiny hamlet of Jabba in the strategic thinking. The emphasis was now on
deterrence and how to prevent wars from taking
Balakot district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province
place. Senior officials openly indulged in nuclear
against an alleged terrorist training center. It
signaling during the Kargil clash.13 This was by no
was a botched operation. The IAF dropped their means the first time that nuclear signaling had
payloads in a great deal of hurry bringing a few been resorted too. It is a well recorded incident
trees down. The next day Pakistani fighter jets first that Pakistani Dr. AQ Khan had told the Indian
bombed ground targets as a warning and later shot journalist Kuldip Nayyar that his country could
down two Indian aircraft. One of the pilots, Wing use nuclear weapons. This warning was given in
Commander Abhinandan Varthaman was captured the backdrop of aggressive posturing by Indian
after he ejected and landed on the Pakistani side. military forces during the Brasstacks exercise
The pilot was later returned to India as a goodwill in 1987. These major military drills were held to
measure to defuse tensions. validate the strategic thinking of Indian Army
In the Pak-India context this latest incident Chief Gen. K Sunderji. But he was wrong footed
is not going to be the end of possible military by counter positioning of Pakistani forces in the
North and slick cricket diplomacy by Gen Zia. Dr.
engagements. As long as there is the unresolved
AQ Khan’s somber warning that Pakistan could
issue of IOJ&K there will be plenty of triggers to
go for the nuclear option added to Pakistan’s
cause another crisis in the future. deterrence package.14

Things changed drastically after the introduction of nuclear weapons in South

Asia in 1998 and brought about a paradigm shift in strategic thinking. The emphasis
was now on deterrence and how to prevent wars from taking place

68 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

The Abhinandan affair was an more attacks on Indian military installations in

embarrassment for the Indians Gurdaspur, Pathankot and Uri. Indian military
pondered how to retaliate.15 Indian Army Chief
and they tried to make amends by came up with the idea of surgical strikes. The
desperately trying to present him as a idea was to hit targets in Azad Kashmir and to
war hero to the domestic audience. The teach Pakistan a lesson. India had already started
investing in their special forces in a big way and any
fact remains that he was bested by his meaningful use of airborne troops could have been
Pakistani counterparts and round One a bold venture. Keeping disputed territory as the
clearly belonged to the PAF pilots theater of operation would have meant that they
were technically not touching the nuclear redlines.
But caution again prevented the Indian Army from
In 2001-2002 the Indians massed their forces striking deep inside hostile territory. Perhaps they
along the international border in a massive weren’t willing to accept their soldiers being killed
exercise of brinkmanship. The Indians expected and captured far away from home base without
the Pakistanis to wilt under pressure and then force any reasonable chance of extricating them. As a
them to accept demands such as a settlement of result the so-called surgical strikes remained mere
Kashmir issue on their terms. The Twin Peak crisis pinpricks and were confidently repulsed. In these
saw intense nuclear signaling as each side wanted kinds of low intensity engagements there was no
to maintain a modicum of escalation dominance. recourse to nuclear signaling.
The crisis was defused after multinational
Then came Pulwama and Indian leaders
corporations (MNCs) threatened to pull out of India
decided to play bold without invoking the N word.
because of a possibility of a nuclear showdown in
Aircrafts were sent into Pakistani territory to take
July 2002.
out an alleged ‘terrorist’ training center in district
After the November 2008 Mumbai attacks, it Balakot in Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa province. The
was expected that India would retaliate militarily target was not located in Azad Kashmir but it was
by operationalizing its much trumpeted CSD. a botched operation. IAF jets literally jettisoned
During this crisis, an important commercial hub their Israeli supplied smart spice bombs which
was held hostage for nearly 48 hours and 48 went awry as the Indians made good their escape.16
people had been killed. Still Indian leadership The Pakistani response was professional and
prevaricated. They were still not ready take the well conducted. The Abhinandan affair was an
risk of starting a nuclear war. Cold reasoning embarrassment for the Indians and they tried to
and calculations prevented the Indians from make amends by desperately trying to present
running a nuclear risk. Any misadventure across him as a war hero to the domestic audience. The
the international border or the LoC was sure to fact remains that he was bested by his Pakistani
invite a response that could have easily led up counterparts and round One clearly belonged to
to an exchange of nuclear weapons. There were the PAF pilots.

Wing Commander Abhinandan handed over to Indian Authorites by Dr Fareeha Bugti, MoFA Pakistan
(Wagah Border )

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

For sure this not going to be the last military India is also trying to make a more
engagement of its kind. So far following patterns
have emerged in an India-Pakistan conflict: A. aggressive nuclear policy viz Pakistan
Large scale military forces have been used in by officially giving up its nuclear No
classical maneuver warfare (1965 and 1971 Wars). First Use (NFU) stance
This form of military engagement may never take
place again. B. Nuclear signaling has been done
intensely during times of acute crises (most notably India is improving and enhancing its seaborne
during the Twin Peak Crisis of 2002). Both Pakistan capabilities. It is currently repairing its accident
and India are learning this art of scaring each other prone nuclear powered and armed INS Arihant,19
and its future use will be more nuanced. C. India and has signed a US $ 3 billion deal to lease a third
has tried the surgical strike with little success Akula I class from Russia.20 The aim is to strengthen
(The Indian Army Chief claimed that his Army had the third leg of the nuclear triad. It is putting a
carried out surgical strikes along the LoC in 2016). number of command and control and surveillance
There is little likelihood that this form of military satellites; procuring advanced drones, building
intervention would be done at a splendid or grand its stealth technology and cyber-warfare. It is also
level. D. Aerial incursions of 2019 did not yield any trying to make a more aggressive nuclear policy viz
military results, apart from the fact that it helped Pakistan by officially giving up its nuclear no first
Modi win the elections. What then could a future use (NFU) stance.21
battlefield look like?
By all indications, the next war will be hybrid
It is quite evident that India wants to isolate in nature. Grounds will be prepared for diminishing
Pakistan diplomatically. It is already doing that the morale of the nation before delivering a coup
by maligning it as an irresponsible state that de grâce. Towards this end, an all-out propaganda
sponsors terrorism. It is aggravating Pakistan’s campaign will be launched to discredit Pakistan
weak economic position by pressurizing it internationally. Doubts will be sown in the minds
through forums like the Asia Pacific Group (APG)
of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). On the
military front it is spending heavily in acquiring In Pakistan India case, third party
weapons systems like the Russian US $ 5 billion mediation or arbitration has been the
S400 Air Defense system despite risking sanctions norm. When the first Kashmir War broke
under the Countering American Adversaries
through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). After the poor
out, it was India that took the issue to the
performance of the Mig 21 Bison of the IAF on 27 UN for the resolution of the conflict
February, the Indian prime minister is aggressively
making a case of buying French Rafael aircraft.17 of the people to shake their faith in the state and its
His home minister Rajnath Singh backed him up leadership through a torrent of fake news spread
by saying that had India had the Rafael aircraft, on social media. Fifth columnists will be infiltrated
they needn’t go inside Pakistani airspace.18 Singh is to pollute the minds of the disaffected people
now the defense minister and is likely to expedite particularly the youth. Offensive cyber-warfare
the case of inducting the Rafael jet fighters. tools will be used to hack into computer networks
to siphon off data and to disable the command
and control systems. This can be followed by a
major incursion across the LoC. The aim would
be to settle the Kashmir issue on India’s terms.
Nuclear first use can be made to pre-empt the use
of battlefield nuclear missiles such as Nasr.
Managing Crises
A crisis follows a certain trajectory that can
sometimes be predicted based on past experiences
but sometimes it can chart unknown and erratic
path. Good crisis managers constantly wargame
possible scenarios during peacetime and are
prepared to handle the emerging situation when
the chips are down. In a slow burn situation, there
are several rungs to climb before the crisis becomes
full blown and slips out of control. During rapid
escalation, it may just be a single stride that can
take countries to war. In Pakistan India case, third

India has signed $3 billion deal with Russia for

70of a Green
lease
Book 2020
third Akula I Class Submarine
 PAKISTAN ARMY

US role in managing India-Pakistan crises has been more prominent after the
two countries became nuclear powers. The personal intervention of US President in
defusing Kargil Crisis is quite well documented

party mediation or arbitration has been the norm. After Pulwama, the angry rhetoric on both
When the first Kashmir War broke out, it was India sides reached a crescendo. The suicide attack
that took the issue to the UN for the resolution of the was claimed by Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), which
conflict.22 There was intensive diplomatic activity the Indians emphasized was an organization
by the UN officials in the 1950s to broker a deal and based in Pakistan. Officially Pakistan condemned
to organize a referendum to determine the choice the attack and rejected that it was in any way
of the Kashmiris. Unfortunately these efforts came involved in it.28 The incident was also condemned
to naught because of Indian intransigence. by the UN Security Council but it rebuffed Indian
Another third party intervention took attempts to implicate Pakistan.29 Thereafter, India
place, when British Prime Minister Harold waited two weeks before launching a so-called
Wilson persuaded Pakistan and India to go for
international arbitration after the Rann of Kutch
incident in 1965. A mutually agreed international
tribunal was established to resolve the border
issue. A verdict was reached in 1968, as a result of
which Pakistan got 10 per cent and India 90 per
cent of the territory.23
The 1965 and 1971 Wars were also brought to
an end through UN good offices. After the 1965
War, the Soviet Union played the honest broker
and brought Pakistani and Indian leadership
to the negotiating table in a bid to resolve the
conflict.24 After the 1971 War, Pakistan and India
met bilaterally at hill resort of Simla near Delhi to
sort out their problems. As a result the Pakistani
Trump offered to mediate
prisoners of war were released and the Ceasefire
Line was renamed LoC. India claims that after ‘counter terrorism’ strike. The bombing mission
the Agreement the Kashmir issue has become to the mountain hamlet of Jabba to hit a small
bilateral. Pakistan believes that this not the case seminary dubbed a terrorist training ground was
and the relevant UN resolutions still remain valid.25 a botched and hurried affair. The missiles failed to
At the moment India is not willing to engage in hit the targets. Pakistanis responded by striking
negotiations bilaterally. in the vicinity of six high value military targets.
The US has intervened on several occasion Subsequently two Indian aircraft were shot down.
to mediate between India and Pakistan to defuse One pilot was captured alive. The world suddenly
tensions. The role of US has been on more than one woke up to the potential of war in one of the most
occasion, be that of firefighting and not resolving heavily populated regions of the world. Pakistan
the contentious issue of Kashmir. The US role in downplayed the incident by releasing the captured
managing India-Pakistan crises has been more pilot and braced for a war. For some weeks the
prominent after the two countries became nuclear situation remained tense before dust settled and
powers. The personal intervention of the US India went for polls. Modi’s act tough policy against
President in defusing the Kargil Crisis is quite well Pakistan was successful as he won by a landslide.
documented.26 In 1962, American President John F. His antics it seems were more geared towards
Kennedy had prevailed upon President Ayub Khan the domestic audience than teaching Pakistan a
not to exploit the situation, when India was weak lesson. In a hair trigger situation such as it exists
and vulnerable during their high altitude war with in Pakistan, a repeat incidence is possible. After
China.27 all India continues to use artillery barrages to hit
bordering villages along the LoC and stoking the
separatist fires in Balochistan.
India continues to use artillery Needless to say, Pakistan cannot afford to
barrages to hit bordering villages along let its guards down and also it needs to keep
the LoC and stoking the separatist fires friendly nations in the loop. Contingency military
and diplomatic plans must be updated for any
in Balochistan eventuality.

Green Book 2020 71

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Musharraf formula had encouraged

Pakistan and India to move away from
their stated positions and come up
with a compromise solution allowing
the Kashmiris some kind of limited
autonomy

any third party mediation or arbitration.32 After

India protested to the US State Department, the
Americans agreed that it was indeed a bilateral
issue.33 But Trump’s chief economic advisor Larry
Kudlow insisted that the US President hadn’t made
up the story of Modi asking for his help. A week
Resolving the Kashmir Issue later Trump renewed his offer for arbitration/
mediation on Kashmir.
Pakistan and India cannot remain in a no
war and no peace situation forever. The bone of Hopes, however little, were quashed, when
contention is Kashmir and it is more important for Modi Government announced repealing the special
Pakistan than India to resolve this issue. Proper status given to IOJK under Article 370 and 35-A of
planning for conflict resolution of a complex and the Indian constitution on 6 August 2019.34 Even, if
convoluted issue such as Kashmir needs proper for argument sake, it is accepted that Modi actually
planning. A well thought out plan based on wanted Trump to help on Kashmir, one isn’t sure
diligent homework is a must. At the moment there what kind of verdict he would have pushed for
seems to be an absence of a cogent Kashmir policy mediate or arbitrate on Kashmir. It is interesting to
at the official level. Important questions need to note that after the Indian Government made known
be answered in this regard such as: What should their fait accompli on Kashmir, PM Khan spoke to
be the status of Kashmir in the future, keeping in President of Turkey and the PM of Malaysia to seek
mind the aspirations of the Kashmiris? How can their support. He didn’t call the Oval Office.
the daily human rights abuses be stopped in the In any case if Pakistan really wants to resolve
occupied Valley? And how can we reduce the cost the Kashmir issue, it must make a strong case
of security, when the threat hasn’t receded one bit? and prepare well. International arbitration can go
An out of the box solution may ease the pain either way, and Pakistan’s track record in winning
for the Kashmiris and reduce tensions in the area. cases or getting a favorable decision is not a good
Gen Musharraf during his time as the President one.
had come up with a four point formula that
according to some commentators including his
Conclusion
foreign minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri had a For most of their existence as sovereign states,
reasonable chance of success. This formula had Pakistan and India have remained locked in mortal
encouraged Pakistan and India to move away combat. Given the environment of suspicion and
from their stated positions and come up with distrust, there is always the possibility that the
a compromise solution allowing the Kashmiris slightest spark can ignite a major war. Smallest
some kind of limited autonomy.30 Like many other provocation can be caused by a sudden spurt of
good intentions, this proposal also did not come enhanced artillery bombardment across the LoC,
to fruition. aerial or ground hot pursuits including so-called
surgical strikes against alleged terrorist bases, or
There was a glimmer of hope during Prime
worst case scenario a physical invasion within the
Minister Imran Khan’s July visit to the US, President
framework of CSD by making shallow maneuvers
Trump offered to mediate or arbitrate in Kashmir –
inside Pakistani territory in response to alleged
to resolve the issue that had marred the relations
terrorist activity etc. Whatever may be the causus
between the two South Asian neighbors for
seventy years. Trump went on to say that Modi also
wanted him to arbitrate and meditate on Kashmir. Whatever may be the causus
In a hurried tweet official spokesman of the Indian belli, once a crisis starts building up
Ministry of External Affairs dismissed Trump’s
assertion that Modi had invited him to mediate it will be upto to the two countries
on Kashmir.31 The foreign minister S. Jaishankar to defuse tensions, because third
reiterated that India’s stated position on Kashmir party intervention is not always
remained unchanged and that this did not include
guaranteed

72 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

belli, once a crisis starts building up it will be upto

to the two countries to defuse tensions because
An exploding population with food
third party intervention is not always guaranteed. shortages and scarcity of water can be
Future war will most likely involve a lot a recipe for disaster. No wars can be
propaganda and mind games. Psy Ops themes fought on empty stomachs
will be propagated on the social and mainstream
media to lower the nation’s morale. Fifth columnist
and secessionists will work against the unity of the The economy must be improved or nobody is going
state. Real war would only come if there is a need to take us seriously. Taking loans to retire old
for that. Surgical strikes, air strikes and offensive debts can become a vicious cycle. We must learn
by Integrated Battle Groups deployed along the to stand on our own two feet. We must never again
border can take place simultaneously, in concert go to any lending agency, whether it be the IMF or
with a sea blockade. Cyber-attacks will form an friends in the rich Arab countries. Loan is a curse
essential part of the attack package. Pakistan can that should be shunned. Loans now taken must be
let down its guard but it also cannot ignore the expeditiously repaid.
fundamental question of butter versus guns.
Population must be controlled and it should
War for this poverty ridden region is not an be provided two square meals a day so that
children are neither malnourished nor impaired
In my calculation, if a war takes by stunted growth. According to a UNICEF report
place it will not take place immediately. on children 3.4 million children in the country
Grounds will be prepared to break the suffer from wasting. Wasting rates are as high as
nation internally through incessant 15 per cent with 6 per cent suffering from ‘severe
wasting’, well above international emergency
propaganda, international isolation thresholds.35 Population is a ticking bomb and
and by preventing real chances of if it isn’t controlled, it will double by 2047 and
economic growth the growth is going to outstrip any meaningful
development gains.36 An exploding population
option. Sincere efforts are needed for conflict with food shortages and scarcity of water can be a
prevention. This can only be done, if both countries recipe for disaster. No wars can be fought on empty
agree to talk. India for its own reasons is reluctant stomachs.
to engage Pakistan in any form of dialogue. Even In my calculation, if a war takes place it
if Pakistan accepts India’s contention that the will not take place immediately. Grounds will be
Kashmir issue should be resolved bilaterally, prepared to break the nation internally through
a beginning has been made. This is important incessant propaganda, international isolation and
because this is the only way to reduce the cost of by preventing real chances of economic growth.
security. For Pakistan it is of salience that it spares With purse strings in the hands of the IMF and
no effort in bringing India to the negotiating table. sundry donors, Pakistan is on a particularly tricky
Perhaps a friendly nudge from big powers will
help.
An environment fraught with possibility of
war should be transformed into one of peace and
stability, where foreign and local investors feel
at ease in investing money and doing business.
To bring internal stability, Pakistan should
spend money on development, particularly on
its burgeoning human resource. The country
has an increasingly young population, if proper
investment is made on them, it would be able to
boast a finished product that can be recognized
for their intellectual merits instead of the virulent
ideologies that some of them may subscribe to.
To prevent a war and create credible
deterrence, the Government needs to invest in its
people. Only a strong nation can deter a foreign
attack or internal dissent. To do so there is a need
to declare emergency in the following areas: basic
education, population planning and health, rule of A Large segment of Indian population lives under
law, energy, food and water security and economy. extreme poverty

Green Book 2020 73

 PAKISTAN ARMY

wicket. The sooner it gets off this dubious life 15. Siegfried O. Wolf, “Gurdaspur, Pathankot, Uri – What Next,” SSOAR, 2016,
https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/document/48613 (accessed July 10,
support system, the better it would be. National 2019)
sovereignty is only possible, if the country is free 16. Dev Goswamy, “SPICE-2000: Know all about the smart bomb Indian Air
of fickle donors and their severe conditionalities. Force used for Balakot airstrike,” India Today, March 5, 2019, https://www.
indiatoday.in/fyi/story/spice-2000-indian-air-force-balakot-airstrike-mirage-
jets-1470988-2019-03-05 (Accessed July 29, 2019).
It is easy to defeat an impoverished, illiterate
17. Vaibhav Tiwari, “India Missing Rafale Now, Says PM Modi; Rahul Gandhi
and hungry country and the grounds for that Retorts,” NDTV, March 3, 2019, https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-miss.
are already being prepared. Once the internal ing-rafale-now-says-pm-modi-rahul-gandhi-retorts-2001788 (Accessed July

vulnerability becomes greater than the existing

29, 2019).
18. “If we had Rafael jets, we need not have entered Pakistan to attack
security apparatus, it will be easy to strike. The them, claims Rajnath Singh,” India Today, March 24, 2019, https://www.
example of East Pakistan is before us. The Indians indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/rajnath-singh-rafale-fighter-
jets-1485473-2019-03-24 (Accessed July 29, 2019)
were able to exploit internal differences to create
19. “India Did Major Damage to a new $3 Billion Submarine by Leaving a Hatch
hatred against the West Pakistan. They struck Open, National Interest, April 13, 2019, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/
when the iron was hot. There can be an East india-did-major-damage-new-3-billion-submarine-leaving-hatch-open-52292
0(Accessed July 29, 2019).
Pakistan redux, if the poor and disenfranchised 20.. India and Russia sign $3 billion nuclear submarine lease agreement, The De-
segments of the society lose faith in the state. fense Post, March 8, 2019, https://thedefensepost.com/2019/03/08/india-rus-
sia-3-billion-akula-submarine-lease/ (Accessed July 29, 2019)

Prof Dr Tughral Yamin retired as Brigadier from 21. Christopher Clarey & Vipin Narang, “India’s Counterforce Temptations: Stra-
tegic Dilemmas, Doctrines, and Capabilities,” International Security, Winter
Pakistan Army. He is currently Associate Dean 2018/19, Vol. 43, No 3: 7-52.
at Centre for International Peace and Stability 22. UN Security Council Resolution 47 is available at http://unscr.com/en/resolu-
(CIPS), National University of Sciences and tions/47 (Accessed July 22, 2019).

Technology (NUST), Islamabad 23. Reports of International Arbitral awards, The Indo-Pakistan Western Bound-
ary (Rann of Kutch) between India and Pakistan (India, Pakistan), VOLUME
XVII (19 February 1968): 1-576, http://legal.un.org/riaa/cases/vol_XVII/1-
576.pdf (Accessed July, 22, 2019).
Notes
24. Letter dated 24 March 1966 from the Permanent Representative of India ad-
1. Alistair Lamb, Kashmir: A Disputed Legacy: 1846-1990 (Karachi: OUP, 1991), dressed to the President of the Security Council, UN Digital Library, https://
135-136. digitallibrary.un.org/record/525864/files/S_7221-EN.pdf?version=1 (Ac-
2. Col Bhaskar Sarkar, Defence of Srinagar 1947, Indian Defence Review, cessed July 22, 2019).
March 13, 2016, http://www.indiandefencereview.com/interviews/de- 25. Agreement between the Government of India and the Government of the Is-
fence-of-srinagar-1947/ (Accessed July 29, 2019). lamic Republic of Pakistan on Bilateral Relations (Simla Agreement), https://
3. Maleeha Hamid Siddiqui, “Ramifications of 1965 War,” Dawn, Sep- peacemaker.un.org/indiapakistan-simlaagreement72 (Accessed July 22,
tember 11, 2015, https://epaper.dawn.com/DetailImage.php?StoryIm- 2019).
age=11_09_2015_118_006 (Accessed July 30, 2019). 26. Riedel, American Diplomacy and the 1999 Kargil Summit at Blair House. Phil-
4. “When ‘Sam Bahadar’ confronted Indira Gandhi, Outlook, June 27, 2008, adelphia: Centre for the Advanced Study of India, 2002.
https://www.outlookindia.com /newswire/story/when-sam-bahadur-confront- 27. Bruce Riedel, JFK’s Forgotten Crisis: Tibet, the CIA and the Sino-Indian War,
ed-indira-gandhi/583907 (Accessed July 29, 2019). New York: Westchester Publishing Services, 2015, 102.
5. Navine Murshid, “India’s Role in Bangladesh War of Independence: Human- 28. “Islamabad condemns Pulwama attack, rejects charge that Pakistan is in-
itarian or Self Interest?” Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 46, No. 52 (DE- volved,” Business Standard, February 15, 2019, https://www.business-stan-
CEMBER 24, 2011): 53-60. dard.com/article/pti-stories/pak-rejects-india-s-charge-on-pulwama-terrorist-
6. Arun Mohanti, “Toasting Legacy of 1971 Indo-Soviet Friendship Treaty,” attack-119021500254_1.html (Accessed July 29, 2019).
Russia Beyond, August 9, 2011, https://www.rbth.com/articles/2011/08/09/ 29. “UNSC condemns Pulwama attack, rebuffs India’s efforts to implicate Paki-
toasting_legacy_of_1971_indo-soviet_friendship_treaty_12842 (Accessed stan,” Pakistan Today, February 22, 2019, https://www.pakistantoday.com.
July 29, 2019). pk/2019/02/22/unsc-condemns-pulwama-attack-rebuffs-indias-efforts-to-im-
7. “Obstinacy over Siachen,” Dawn, February 28, 2016, https://www.dawn. plicate-pakistan/ (Accessed July 22, 2019).
com/news/1242372 (Accessed July 31, 2019). 30. Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri, Neither a Hawk nor a Dove, (Karachi: Oxford Uni-
8. Rahul Bedi, “Kargil Report: More Questions Raised than Answered,” Eco- versity Press, 2015). 129.
nomic and Political Weekly. Vol. 35, No. 17 (Apr. 22-28, 2000): 1429-1431. 31. “India Denies Asking Trump to Mediate on Kashmir During Pakistani Prime
9. Manoj Joshi, “Kargil War: Heavily armed Pakistan-backed intruders destroy Minister’s Washington Visit,” Gandhara, July 23, 2019, https://gandhara.rferl.
Indo-Pak peace process,” https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/india-to- org/a/india-denies-asking-trump-to-mediate-on-kashmir-during-pakistani-
day-archives/story/19990607-kargil-war-heavily-armed-pakistan-backed-in- prime-minister-s-washington-visit/30070600.html (Accessed July 25, 2019)
truders-destroy-indo-pak-peace-process-781031-1999-11-30 (Accessed July 32. Bharti Jain, “PM Modi made no such request, says S Jaishankar on Trump’s
30, 2019) Kashmir remarks,” TNN, July 23, 2019, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/
10. Bruce Riedel, American Diplomacy and the 1999 Kargil Summit at Blair india/pm-modi-made-no-such-request-says-s-jaishankar-on-trumps-kash-
House, Center of the Advance Studies of India, U Pen, 4, http://citeseerx. mir-remarks/articleshow/70342029.cms (Accessed July 31, 2019).
ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download ?doi=10.1.1.473.251&rep=rep1 &type=pdf 33. Geeta Mohan, “India lodges protest over Trump’s Kashmir mediation com-
(Accessed July 22, 2019). ment on PM Modi, US clarifies it is a bilateral issue,” India Today, https://
11. P.R. Chari, P.I. Cheema and Stephen P. Cohen, Four Crisis and a Peace www.indiatoday.in/india/story/donald-trump-kashmir-mediation-comment-in-
Process: American Engagement in South Asia (Brookings, 2007), 149-183. dia-lodges-protest-1572440-2019-07-23 (Accessed July 25, 2019).

12. “Lt General Bipin Rawat: Master of Surgical Strikes,” The Economic Times, 34. Manavi Kapur, “History Reversed: The Narendra Modi government scraps
July 14, 2018, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/lt-gen- Kashmir’s special status under Indian constitution,” Quartz India, August 6,
eral-bipin-rawat-master-of-surgical-strikes/articleshow/56054559.cms?- 2019, https://qz.com/india/1681325/india-scraps-article-370-that-gives-spe-
from=mdr (Accessed July 30, 2019). cial-status-to-kashmir/ (Accessed August 7, 2019).

13. Usman Ghani, “Nuclear Weapons in India Pakistan Crisis,” IPRI Journal Vol. 35. Status of Children in Pakistan, UNICEF Report 2017, 53, https://www.unicef.
XII (2012): 141-142, https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Usman_Ghani55/ org/pakistan/media/596/file/Situation%20Analysis%20of%20Children%20
publication/329814931_Nuclear_Weapons_India_Pakistan_Crisis/links/5c- in%20Pakistan.pdf (Accessed July 31, 2019).
1c0099458515a4c7eda853/Nuclear-Weapons-India-Pakistan-Crisis.pdf (ac- 36. Ikram Junaidi, “New report says growing population likely to outstrip
cessed July 10, 2019). de velopmental gains,” Dawn, October 18, 2018, https://www.dawn.com/
14. Kuldip Nayyar, Beyond the Lines: An Autobiography (Roli Books, 2012), 304- news/1439690/new-report-says-growing-population-likely-to-outstrip-deve-
309 lopmental-gains (Accessed July 26, 2019).

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CROSS-DOMAIN DETERRENCE
THE PULWAMA ATTACK: LIMITED WAR
& NUCLEAR IMPLICATIONS
REESTABLISHING DETERRENCE
& HIGH ORDER WAR
Dr Maria Sultan

When he has penetrated into hostile territory, but to great

distance, it is facile ground
(Sun Tzu)

Abstract
“Cross Domain Deterrence” requires that the effects generated through one domain are translated in
other domains. These effects generated in various domains such as information, economics, politics
and diplomatic should equate the weapons effect - nuclear, conventional, space, cyber, missile defense,
chemical and biological etc on the overall strategic space of military action by Pakistan. It also revolves
around the key ability of making retaliatory threats from one domain to prevent attacks from another. The
use of this strategy by India was primarily to mute Pakistan’s military response in the case of framework
issues such as Kashmir, which in New Delhi’s opinion has restricted the military choices for them and
also created a strait jacket that according to New Delhi required a new military strategy aided by the use
of cross domain approach for military effectiveness. The thrust of Cross Domain Deterrence operations is
based on technique to devise it in a manner so that the conflict is prevented to spill into the domain of
an all-out India Pakistan war. The induction of new technologies, force modernization and new doctrinal
demands pressed the Indian defence planners to construct new employment strategy vis-à-vis military
offensive keeping in view the nuclear environment. In their view, the nuclear deterrence had minimized
the space for India to use its superior conventional asymmetry vis-à-vis Pakistan or enhance the battle
space to achieve its political aims through military means. So, the Indian military strategist have come up
with a strategy to circumvent an all-out nuclear war and subsequently counter Pakistan. The use of Cross
Domain Deterrence became crucial for India for achieving its objectives. The attempt to create space of
limited war, through Pulwama Attack, involved military, economic, diplomatic and nuclear components
whereby the flawed execution and miscalculation of retaliation on part of India accounted for the
transformation of overall security dynamics of South Asia.
Keywords: Act of War, Cross Domain Deterrence, Pulwama Attack, Conventional, Asymmetry, Limited War,
Kashmir, High Order War

Green Book 2020 75

 PAKISTAN ARMY

W
ar and the art of war, is the
ability of the strategic planners
The aim of the Indian strategy is
of a state to meet the desired to stunt the Pakistan military options
objectives through the path of especially the nuclear offensive
least resistance within minimum capability in the wake of military
time. This however, is affected by the adversary’s
plans, military doctrines and the will to fight back; conflict
aided by technology, numbers and intelligence.
It is a sum total of the legal space created for the stability between the two protagonists. The
armed forces domestically and internationally reliance on nuclear deterrence as a factor of
that determines the use of force in the battlefield stability created a challenge for the conventionally
versus the adversary points of application. This larger Indian military to start a high order war
determines use of force during the war; which will without invoking the nuclear thresholds.
expand and restrict the battlefields on which the
entire spectrum of the war effort is employed. The aim of the Indian strategy is to stunt
Pakistan’s military options especially its nuclear
An understanding less than that would offensive capability in the wake of a military
amount to disastrous consequences, particularly conflict. To create a response dilemma for the
in a nuclear environment. military and strategic planners in Islamabad
War and the threat of war is a serious business, against the use of carrying out effective military
which can neither be left to conjecture and wishful strikes; could lead to inadvertent escalation in the
thinking nor mere imagination. Every move made military domains. In addition, the Land Warfare
by the adversary requires inquiry and a thorough Doctrine (LWD) of India emphasizes the use of
investigation; for any miscalculation in the intent, information domain to create conditions in other
space of the warzone and direction of the response domains that would impact the military domains
can be disastrous in the event of an outbreak in the same manner as war.
of war, whether considered local or limited, To pursue this objective New Delhi required
especially in the nuclearized context, where the that effects were generated in various domains
threat of a conventional war remains in the realm such as information, economics, politics and
of the possible. diplomatic which are equal to that of weapons
Traditionally, India and Pakistan have effect - nuclear, conventional, space, cyber, missile
engaged in aggressive actions or measures that defense, chemical biological etc on the overall
have remained short of a direct war to achieve their strategic space of military action by Pakistan. This
national objectives.1 This has been the dominant use of strategy is called “Cross Domain Deterrence”
strategy for almost four decades, where an all-out and it revolves around the key ability of making,
major war has not broken out between the two “retaliatory threats from one domain to prevent
nuclear-armed adversaries, despite numerous attacks from another’’.2
military crises. The non-military domains are usually in legal,
Since, May 1998 nuclear deterrence has economic, diplomatic, and political; the aim is
remained the predominant factor of strategic inter-alia to create pressure in various domains by
creating issues whose effects manifest in the same
manner on the state as that of the use of military
on the state, if war as an instrument of policy is to
be used.
The conventional military deterrence
equation perpetuated by the Pakistani armed
forces supplemented by the military efficacy
of the force created a challenge for the Indian
force commanders as during each subsequent
military crises, in particular 2001-2002, the Indian
military planners could not offset the mobilization
differential of the Pakistani military capabilities or
the deterrent effects of the nuclear capability.
The use of this strategy was primarily, to
mute Pakistan’s military response in the case of
framework issues such as Kashmir, which in New
Delhi’s opinion has restricted the military choices
for them and also created a strait jacket that
according to New Delhi required a new military

76 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

creating cross-domain deterrence in support of the

Nuclear deterrence had minimized military strategy on ground.
the space for India to use its superior
According to New Delhi, the CSD has helped
conventional asymmetry vis-à-vis to counter the ‘stability instability paradox” i.e. to
Pakistan or enhance the battle space stop the Pakistan’s allegedly proxy elements to spur
to achieve its political aims through freedom struggle in the IOJK, while constraining
India’s conventional superiority through a nuclear
military means deterrent.4

strategy aided by the use of cross domain approach In their view, the nuclear deterrence had
for military effectiveness. minimized the space for India to use its superior
conventional asymmetry vis-à-vis Pakistan or
The Indian strategy is shaped by the challenge enhance the battle space to achieve its political
of the military response by Islamabad, which could aims through military means. Furthermore,
alter or restrict choices for New Delhi on ground the mobilization deferential between Pakistani
not only in Kashmir but also scaling the operation armed forces and India could not be bridged with
in IOJK as a counter insurgency operation with the the classic conventional military mobilization
offset of a limited war between India and Pakistan principles used by New Delhi, it required a rethink
under a nuclear environment. on how an offensive could be launched against
This is exacerbated by the inadequacy of Pakistan, while at the same time not to offset
the Indian armed forces to modernize as well as the effect of the nuclear deterrence and to create
to create command coherence for a large scale compellence in other domains.
operation vis-a-vis Pakistan in a short period of Moreover, India sought to develop the ‘active
time. defense’ measures such as introduction of
The thrust remaining that the operation may theatre missile defenses, military reconnaissance
be devised in a manner to stop the fall out of the satellites, and precision-guided munitions, to
conflict escalating into an India Pakistan all- minimize the projected threat from Islamabad.
out war. Particularly, the induction of the new From 2001-2002, to Uri incident and then ultimately
technologies and various doctrinal demands Pulwama, New Delhi shaped its military strategy
added pressure on the Indian defense planners, around the use of “punitive strikes’’, aided by
to create a new employment strategy for a military New Delhi’s, newly found diplomatic influence
offensive in a nuclear environment. The challenge and emerging security and defense cooperation
of retarding the military fall out of a militarily between India, US, Australia and Japan that
responsive Islamabad, although remained static. was used to create domain effects in financial
(economic) and diplomatic (UN and international)
The mobilization differential and the existence domains.
of the conventional deterrence between the two has
added to the military challenge for the planners In the military domain the primary shift was
in New Delhi, to create the space for limited war to use information operations, select technology
or create a high order war between the two states curve Precision Guided Munitions (PGM) to use and
with measures to keep it short of a war. In order, to create an offensive military doctrine that would
operationalize this strategy with multiple domains help to undermine the Pakistani deterrence.5
being in play, it is important to understand how
deterrence is used to create the necessary effects
on the choice of an adversary’s behavior.
To fill the doctrinal challenge India has
repositioned its military strategy on the parameters
of a new war-highlighting concept of the Cold
Start Doctrine (CSD), later defined as Pro Active
Operations (PAO) in pursuit of fighting a limited
war with Pakistan.
Introduced as war-fighting concept as early as
2004, according to the Indian military planners the
CSD is aimed to shift the Indian military posture
from deterrence towards compellence. ‘The nuclear
capability and conventional military superiority
influenced India to move beyond deterrence to a
strategy of compellence”.3 However, in order to US President, Indian & Japanese Prime Ministers
create the necessary effects it was necessary that meeting on the sidelines of G20 Summit in
the posture and force goals changed to the use of Buenos Aires (December 2018)

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

The use of high technology and the redrawing The counter strike by Pakistan the
of the continental forces to carve a space for
limited war had been the high point of the military
“quid pro plus” to hit six non-military
doctrine, for the Indian policy makers and military targets in India and the fall of the
commanders; this was offset by the nuclear Indian jets restored the conventional
capability of Islamabad. deterrence
Since 2004, India has slowly but certainly
aimed to modify and develop its military strategy To enable India to carry out a counter
around the CSD referred at times as proactive terrorism operation at an earlier stage of a conflict
strategy. The change, however, failed to deliver it was termed as a “preemptive strike”, which
strategic deterrence or space for war to India would stop before the start of major conventional
during the multiple military crises between the war between the two states. It aimed to introduce
two states.6 “deterrence through punitive strikes at tactical
In each successive crises India could not level”.7 Despite the acknowledgment in the Indian
carve the space and each crises resulted in a LWD that space for conventional war is being
military standoff between the two states. Each year reduced, especially with Pakistan, it claims that
however, military exercises were conducted to test conventional operations will remain central to the
various elements of the CSD and the concept was conflict spectrum.8
expanded to bleed Pakistani forces by keeping A military offensive against Pakistan,
the India Pakistan border and the line of control reconfigured as a “surgical strike” aided by the
information operations, diplomatic, counter
terrorism, was mainstreamed; as New Delhi sought
space for limited war under a nuclear over hang.
Recognizing the fact that warfare is undergoing
paradigm shift the LWD gives importance towards
the non-contact and standoff capabilities,
autonomous weapons system, electronic warfare,
cyber capabilities or disruptive technologies that
can have decisive impact on the battlefield.9
While these may be the possibilities of the
future, the first quantum jump has been made by
India in leveraging an aerial strike followed by a
missile threat and naval mobilization.
The counter strike by Pakistan the “quid pro
plus” to hit six non-military targets in India and
the fall of the Indian jets restored the conventional
deterrence. And the exchanges of nuclear threats
PAF reestablished direct deterrence in the nuclear
domain. The fact remains that if general deterrence
active at higher level of operational readiness and is not strengthened and the incentive to carry
engaging in continuous hostile fire across the out a military activity is not penalized, for India,
border. continued military strikes will remain a choice of
military engagement. This of course will increase
Defined as the “New Normal” in 2016, the shift the risk of war.
though continuous in the Indian military strategy
since the CSD, aimed to link sub conventional In future as the rest of the Indian army may
threats to conventional war, yet remaining under struggle to reach a uniform modernization standard
the nuclear threshold of the two states. in training, application and force employment;
the LWD and the advanced weapon development
roadmap of the Indian Ministry of Defence till
A military offensive against Pakistan, 2020-25 places DEWs as a top priority as well as the
use of hybrid strategy as part of military options
reconfigured as a “surgical strike” for New Delhi.10
aided by the information operations, This means that as the Indian technology
diplomatic, counter terrorism, was curve develops and interfaces with the military,
mainstreamed; as New Delhi sought it will become essential that general deterrence
space for limited war under a nuclear is reinforced and the gains without cost to India’s
as a strategy of choice may be made unavailable.
overhang It will also become pertinent that gains in the

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Laying the basis of compellence as part of military war objective; the focus on
other domains is driven towards a strategy based to create a “grey zone” of the
conflict; where the shift to various domains will become regular part of war and will
lead to a new era of hostilities at higher levy of the threat spectrum

military domain may not translate in other The military strategy was designed as a multi-
domains; to achieve this, space for war needs to be dimensional strategy in the economic, legal,
further squeezed, by Islamabad. This in practical diplomatic and information domain reducing and
terms will require revisiting the Kashmir issue as a increasing the space of operations for military
binary function for state‘s raison detre, as the fight practioners to manage the conflict without the
for self-determination and an unfinished part of escalation. Laying the basis of compellence as
the partition. part of military war objective; the focus on other
domains is driven towards a strategy based to
The action taken by India on August 5th 2019,
create a “grey zone” of the conflict; where the shift
through the reorganization bill itself is a challenge
to various domains will become regular part of war
that cannot be undone as it strips Kashmiris in
and will lead to a new era of hostilities at higher
IOJK of their legal identity as Kashmiris. The only
levy of the threat spectrum.
available choice being that they either opt for
Indian citizenship or face detention centers. This This is the heart of the new strategy crafted and
is accompanied by a day and night curfew in IOJK. used by New Delhi and its military and strategic
planners, where IOJK crises has been redefined
The military strategy was designed as an alleged “terror” issue. The global support
as a multi-dimensional strategy in for counter terrorism efforts under UNSC1373 and
UNSC1267 is used to redefine the conflict in these
the economic, legal, diplomatic and terms. This has been the prime directive of the
information domain reducing and Indian diplomatic and information operations
increasing the space of operations for strategy and the war effort so that the conflict
military practioners to manage the can be defined in the domestic context rather
than bilateral framework, thereby creating a new
conflict without the escalation context for Islamabad to respond.
The purpose of these strikes was not to create a The use of this has created a cross-domain
significant military impact but to create a response approach where the war effort is driven in six
dilemma as non-military targets are engaged while parallel domains, economic, political, military,
keeping the initiative dominance in the conflict nuclear, Kashmir and counter terrorism. All
and war cycle. Accompanied with an information simultaneously helped to shape the policy
operations based media onslaught the military outcome of the military exchange with Pakistan
precision strikes are taken to provide the response over Kashmir in this framework.
challenge.

Pulwama Attack - 14 February 2019

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

provided no evidence.14 A threat was leveled to the

According to Indian war strategists mothers of IOJK youth that anyone who picked up
the use of “preemptive strategy” inter the gun would be killed.15
alia hard force (below the nuclear On 20th February, the Kashmir bus service
threshold) was to keep the targets to Muzaffarabad was suspended by New Delhi
limited in time, space and effects from and on 21 February, UNSC President issued a
the military targets that may affect the statement condemning the Pulwama attack
and calling it a heinous act, it asserted that
threshold debate the members “underlined the need to hold
perpetrators, organizers, financiers and
It is likely to define the hybrid warfare, waged sponsors of these reprehensible acts of terrorism
by India and the shape of the offensive battle of accountable and bring them to justice, and urged
the future. The importance of establishing cross- all states, in accordance with their obligations
domain deterrence cannot be underscored, under international law and relevant Security
particularly the need to strengthen it in all Council resolutions, to cooperate actively with
respective domains of deterrence to offset the the Government of India and all other relevant
offensive in the hybrid strategy. authorities, in this regard”.16
Following the Uri attacks in IOJK, Indian Seen as a huge breakthrough for the Indian
Director General Military Operations (DGMO) interlocutors the statement read that there is a need
claimed that Indian forces allegedly para dropped for all states, to combat terrorism “by all means,
(500 meters - 2 km across the Line of Control) and in accordance with the UN charter and other
destroyed terror launch pads in Pakistan.11 These obligations of the international law, including
strikes apparently were taken to stop the hundreds international human rights laws, international
of alleged terrorist gathered at the LOC who were refugee law and international humanitarian law,
about to cross. The claims by India were contested threats to international peace and security caused
both by the international media and the Pakistani by terrorist acts”.17 This was seen by New Delhi as
counter parts.12 The views ranged from the non- a vindication for its stance on the Kashmir struggle
existence of an actual air strike or behind enemy and by affixing the attribution of the claim to JEM,
lines operations to escalated state of hostilities on a step towards steering the debate in UNSC on
the LOC. Kashmir to terrorism.
According to Indian war strategists the use of On 21 February 2019 Indian government
“preemptive strategy” inter alia hard force (below threatened to divert river waters that flow
the nuclear threshold) was to keep the targets downstream to Pakistan. The statement was made
limited in time, space and effects from the military by the Indian minister for water affairs Mr Nitin
targets that may affect the threshold debate. The Gadkari that, “Our government has decided to stop
counter terror framework and military measures our share of water which used to flow to Pakistan”.
taken across the borders would provide space for He added that the country would divert water from
war and it would diplomatically isolate Pakistan.13 eastern rivers and supply it to “its people in Jammu
and Kashmir after the deadly attack”.18
Diplomatic Domain On 26 February 2019 Indian jets violated
Pulwama Attack was followed by a series Pakistani airspace and territorial integrity
of steps taken by India to change the scepter of and bombed an alleged terrorist (JEM) site in
conflict to the terrorism framework. The time Pakistan; as an act of war was committed against
line indicates that the incident was neither seen Islamabad. India’s use of this military option had
nor termed as an act of domestic or international been defined by New Delhi as a struggle to redefine
terrorism, but was defined as a starting point of the Kashmir dispute as a continuous struggle to
initiating a hybrid war against Pakistan. carry out counter terror operations and by the
On 14 February 2019, the suicide attack by US National Security Advisor as “India’s, right
an indigenous Kashmiri freedom fighter killed for self-defense against cross border terrorism”.19
40 personnel of the Central Reserve Police Force The official response of Washington as per the
(CRPF). On 16 February 2019, customs duty on statement given by the White House after the
Pakistani imports was raised and the Most Favored incident called on Pakistan to “end immediately
Nation (MFN) status was withdrawn by New Delhi. the support and safe haven provided to all terrorist
On 19 February 2019, the Pakistani PM called for groups operating on its soil and indicated that the
a dialogue and on the same day the India ‘s top incident only strengthens our resolve to bolster US-
military commander in IOJK, Lt Gen KJS Dhillon, India counter terrorism cooperation.”20 In short,
accused Pakistan’s ISI of “controlling” the attack the statement clearly reflected the new paradigm
with Jaish-e-Mohammad commanders, but he for Kashmir as defined by US and India, where
it was to be seen as a threat to global peace, a

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The early redefinition of the events of 14 February 2019 (in Pulwama) by the
two alliance partners was to help bring the paradigm shift for the right wing
Indian government and regionally resurgent India capable of carrying out a
synchronised military, economic and diplomatic attack against its adversaries,
namely Pakistan (later perhaps China)

counter terrorism challenge and a challenge to their district hospitals.... in the interest of patient
international security as seen in the post 9/11 care”, by the Director of Health Services Kashmir
international order rather than a historical dispute (IOJK).23 And on 26 February 2019, India carried
based on the UNSC resolutions protecting the right out an aerial strike inside Pakistan, a clear act of
of self-determination. war, defying all international norms and practices;
the aim was to define the act under the premise of
The early redefinition of the events of 14th allegedly stopping “cross border terrorism” and as
Feburary 2019 (in Pulwama) by the two alliance an act of self-defense by New Delhi.
partners was to help bring the paradigm shift
for the right wing Indian government and What is significant to note is that while
regionally resurgent India capable of carrying New Delhi‘s use of air force to drop a bomb on
out a synchronised military, economic and the Pakistani territory was an act of war, it was
defined by the US as a “counter terrorism measure
diplomatic attack against its adversaries, namely
undertaken by New Delhi.” What was not
Pakistan (later perhaps China). Hence, the close
anticipated was that even if a non-military target
coordination at the international institutional was engaged by the Indian jet fighters, the mere
level was followed by power abuse in IOJK by the fact that they crossed Pakistani borders with
Indian government. combat aerial assault machines was an act of war
This was followed by massive crackdown and that Islamabad would respond militarily.
on 23 February 2019 and arrests were made Correspondingly, Pakistan in its right of
through out IOJK, and a huge number of Kashmiri self-defense under article 51 of the UN charter
resistance leaders were arrested by New Delhi.21 resorted to a counter strike on 27 February 2019.
By 25 February, various advisories were issued The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) intercepted the air
in the IOJK, indicating a war between India and violation by India on 27 February 2019 and two
Pakistan22 was in the making. In the view of aircrafts were shot down along with the decision
the prevailing situation then, it was impressed to dominate the escalation ladder to deliver a
upon “all the Chief Medical Officers (In IOJK), to simple and clear message that no act of war
collect the available supplies of drugs, medicines, could remain un responded; it carried the inherit
surgical disposable items and other allied items for risk of a large scale India - Pakistan war.

Post Pulwama a large number of Kashmiri resistance leaders

Book were
2020 arrested
Green 81
 PAKISTAN ARMY

It was a mix of active defense (shooting of the aircrafts), nuclear threat to counter
the Indian missile threat and policy of restraint through the choice of targets on the
27th and subsequently the display of target engagement at air, sea and land clearly
stated that Pakistan would maintain initiative dominance on all escalatory steps of
the war cycle

In the subsequent phase that is inter alia domain was not complete or broad enough
post 26 February 2019 phase, the actions taken by to dominate the entire war cycle and two, the
Islamabad in air, land and sea to effectively thwart restructuring of the Kashmir dispute as “terrorism
the Indian aggression and decision to carry out and counter terrorism’’ challenge would also not
a select kinetic action was to demonstrate that go undisputed as Islamabad militarily, politically
Pakistan would respond and that Islamabad and diplomatically remained determined to fight
would not stand for military compellence or the back.
use of other domains to create military decision February 2019 military engagement between
making paralysis in Islamabad. The decision to India and Pakistan has shaped the dynamics of future
choose non-military targets had been carried out wars between the two nuclear-armed adversaries.
with a policy of restraint and active defense by
Islamabad and also as a military demonstrator
that Pakistan was a nuclear state and ready to
militarily defend its right for self-defense . It was
a mix of active defense (shooting of the aircrafts),
nuclear threat to counter the Indian missile threat
and policy of restraint through the choice of targets
on the 27thand subsequently the display of target
engagement at air, sea and land clearly stated that
Pakistan would maintain initiative dominance on
all escalatory steps of the war cycle.
The use of restraint and active defense by
Islamabad was the indication that the transition
sought by New Delhi was neither complete nor
possible/ implementable against Islamabad
without the risk of a large scale war between the
nuclear armed adversaries. The choice of target
engagement by PAF and the destruction of the non-
military targets inside IOJK did however, create a
challenge of sorts for the Indian defense planners,
the quint-essential issue of finding space for war in Sqn Leader Hasan Mehmood Siddiqui,
a nuclear overhang; the response challenge. Tamgha-i-Jurat
India on the eve of 27th and 28th had responded
with a missile threat which itself indicated that Militarily, Pakistan displayed extra ordinary
the non-land approach was at play. The non- skill; however at the diplomatic level action was
use of the land option indicated that despite the awaited. Contrary to this, India’s behaviour post
diplomatic, political and economic dominance handing over of the shot Indian pilot continued at
of the structures the shift in the military nuclear the diplomatic level and on 28 February through
the three permanent members of the UNSC, US,
UK and France made a listing request, asking for a
The right of self-determination travel ban, arms embargo and asset freeze of the JEM
leader Masood Azhar citing the Pulwama incident
remains protected under article 1 of the as a force behind the attacks; this was despite the
UN Charter and UNGA resolution 3314, fact that the allegations were leveled against the
which justifies the use of armed struggle organization within 24 hours of the incident without
for the right of self-determination not any acceptable forensic evidence or investigation
into the issue.
only for the people under occupation
This has raised the possibility of the
but also for the UN member states conventional and nuclear war between the two
that defend the people’s right for self- protagonist, while escalation and a military
determination standoff continues between India and Pakistan

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on the borders; the power centers in India have annexation by the use of force of the territory
exerted pressure on Pakistan by terming the current of another State or part thereof.
stand off as a counter terrorism effort by New Delhi ƒƒ Bombardment by the armed forces of a State
under UNSC1373 calling for firmer action against against the territory of another State or the use
JEM a militant organization to be called a terrorist of any weapons by a State against the territory
organization under FATF and 1269, 1368 and 1373. of another State.
This of course has created complications as ƒƒ The blockade of the ports or coasts of a State
Pakistan completely endorses the challenge of by the armed forces of another State.
1373 and FATF responsibilities under 1267. But
these could not endorse Indian illegal actions in ƒƒ An attack by the armed forces of a State on the
IOJK; as the right of self-determination remains land, sea or air forces, or marine and air fleets
protected under article 1 of the UN Charter and of another State.
UNGA resolution 3314, which justifies the use of ƒƒ The use of armed forces of one State which
armed struggle for the right of self-determination are within the territory of another State
not only for the people under occupation but also with the agreement of the receiving State,
for the UN member states that defend the people’s in contravention of the conditions provided
right for self-determination. for in the agreement or any extension of
their presence in such territory beyond the
termination of the agreement.
Pakistan respected its obligations under UNSC
1373 and had taken effective steps against terrorist
organization under National Action Plan. It is
important to state that the conditions in IOJK could
not be equated as a case for counter terrorism
action. It is the principle of self-determination,
the rights established under article 1 of UN Charter
and Article 7 of the UNGA resolution 3341; inter
alia the right for self-determination and armed
struggle if so required. The Indian attempt to
convert the Kashmir freedom struggle as such was
seen by Islamabad as a framing of a new domain to
create strategic effects in the military and nuclear
domain.
These are supported by the UNSC 47 (1948)
resolution of 21st April 1948; UNSC 51 (1948)
resolution of 3rd June 1948; UNSC 80 (1950)
resolution of 14th March 1950 for resolving the
Wing Commander Noman Ali, Kashmir dispute through peaceful means by
Sitara-i-Jurat holding free fair plebiscite, recognizing the right of
Kashmiri people for self-determination. This was
restated in the later resolutions on Kashmir.
The unwarranted aggression of the Indian
military against Pakistan and its sovereignty, The current agitation in IOJK is rooted in the
as per the UN Charter, its resolutions/articles, struggle of the people for the exercise of their right
establishes that these actions are Acts of War. of self-determination. Accordingly,
Article 2 of the UN Charter, which calls upon Article 2 of the UN resolution A/RES/39/17
member states not to threat or use of force against adopted on 23 November 1984, it “Reaffirms the
the territorial integrity or political independence legitimacy of the struggle of peoples for their
of the state so that international peace and independence, territorial integrity, national
security is not endangered. However, as per the unity and liberation from colonial domination,
Article 3 of UNGA Resolution A/RES/29/3341 apartheid and foreign occupation by all available
an act of aggression is defined as, regardless means, including armed struggle”.
of a declaration of war, shall, subject to and in
accordance with the provisions of article 2, qualify
as an act of aggression:- The current agitation in IOJK is
ƒƒ The invasion or attack by the armed forces rooted in the struggle of the people
of a State of the territory of another State, or for the exercise of their right of self
any military occupation, however temporary, determination
resulting from such invasion or attack, or any

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

Post Pulwama, Pakistan faced two fundamental geo-economic challenges i.e.

firstly the direct cost of persistent conflict at LOC and its effects to deteriorate
Pakistan’s economy; secondly, Pakistan being threatened to be black listed by FATF/
APG

Article 9 of the UN resolution A/RES/39/17 Pakistan; Pakistan must stipulate to the UN

adopted on 23 November 1984 it, “Strongly Secretary General that an Act of War has been
condemns the wanton killing of peaceful and committed against the State of Pakistan and the
defenceless demonstrators and workers on strike”. continuous aggression against the people of IOJK

Funeral of Naseer Ahmad Pandit killed by Indian soldiers in Pulwama - 16 May , 2019
Article 29 of the UN resolution A/RES/39/17 has led to a threat of nuclear war between the two
adopted on 23 November 1984, it, “Demands nuclear armed states as the escalation remains
the immediate and unconditional release of all high and threat of war remains alive.
persons detained or imprisoned as a result of their
In short, it can be stated that domain of choice
struggle for self-determination and independence,
for India during Pulwama and post Pulwama
full respect for their fundamental individual rights
had remained driven by Kashmir and the counter
and compliance with article 5 of the Universal
terrorism framework; a domain vigorously
Declaration of Human Rights, under which no one
challenged by Islamabad. After the material
shall be subjected to torture or to cruel, inhuman
changes in IOJK of 5th August 2019 the debate has
or degrading treatment”.
swung back to the interstate domain and a reverse
Given the fact that India is continuing to term challenge is created for the Indian polity to deal
the Kashmir freedom movement as terrorism with the after effects of this.
and has carried out an act of aggression against

An Act of War has been committed against the state of Pakistan and the continuous
aggression against the people of IOJK has led to a threat of nuclear war between the
two nuclear armed states as the escalation remains high and threat of war remains
alive

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Economic Domain
“Post Pulwama, Pakistan faced two Being placed on the FATF Grey List
fundamental geo-economic challenges i.e. firstly carries no direct legal or financial
the direct cost of persistent conflict at LOC and implications but brings extra scrutiny
its effects to deteriorate Pakistan’s economy; from regulators and financial
secondly, Pakistan being threatened to be black
listed by FATF/APG”.24 institutions that can chill trade
The economic domain was used by New
and investment as it also increase
Delhi as it used its influence to increase pressure transaction costs
through global regulatory frameworks to constrain
Pakistan’s economy and finance. The enormity of international institutions (World Bank, IMF, ADB
the economic challenged faced by Islamabad was and UNESCAPE) have predicted lower GDP growth
challenged further due to the “fragile external in FY 2019 and subsequent years”.26 According
account, which was and is the weakest link in to World Economic Outlook Report of IMF,
our economic policy management strategy”.25 It is Pakistan’s GDP will grow at 2.9 percent in FY19
evident that India’s strategic planners have used and 2.8 percent in FY20. The World Bank has also
the geo-economic tool by choice to keep Pakistan projected lower growth trajectory in coming years.
engaged economically by incurring unsustainable Similar projections have been issued by the Asian
economic cost, as part of its strategy to exert Development Bank27 (FY 19 growth will decelerate
pressure on Islamabad on this domain for results to 3.9). In short, if the escalation continued and
in the other domain. The strategy to increase Pakistan remained on the grey list, the fear of
violations on the LOC, increase threat level due uncertainty would cripple any government in
to Pulwama (air domain) and the need to remain Islamabad.
mobilized until May 19 (till India went into election
phase) would be hugely expensive, both in terms One of the key economic barometers was the
of escalation fatigue and economic costs. And threat of being black listed by the FATF. India is
second was to place Pakistan on FATF blacklist. using global institutions (UNO and UNSC) and
the intergovernmental platforms to pressurize
The LOC remained active in one way or other Pakistan’s economy as Indian strategic planners
since last decade or so and a persistent engagement know very well that the economy is Pakistan’s
was likely to increase unsustainability for Pakistan. Achilles heel. Pakistan remained in the grey and
Lower GDP growth (forecasts for Pakistan), black lists several times. In the current “Grey List”
demonstrated that the threat of negative economic Pakistan is the most significance country in terms
impact was not imaginary. Thus, Pakistan is busy of population and size of economy and military.
fighting multiple wars on the economic front, the Being placed on the FATF Grey List carries no
LOC, military domain and diplomatic domain all direct legal or financial implications but brings
to gain traction on Kashmir. extra scrutiny from regulators and financial
“Pakistan economic challenges and institutions that can chill trade and investment as
vulnerabilities are evident from the weak it also increase transaction costs.
macroeconomic indicators and several
Cost of Mobilization
India had shifted the domain and the tools
too: the selected domain is economy and tools are
established geo-economics i.e. the cost of war and
usage of global regulatory/financial frameworks
to settle geostrategic score. The conflict is
costly business and persistent engagement at
LOC is highly unsustainable. “According to our
estimates (in-house estimates based on certain
set of assumptions), Pakistan will be facing a
cost of mobilization in the range of US$ 9-12
billion per month if immediate de-escalation was

Pakistan is busy fighting multiple

wars on the economic front, the LOC,
military domain and diplomatic
domain all to gain traction on
Kashmir

Green Book 2020 85

 PAKISTAN ARMY

not conducted by March 2020. Keeping in view The most interesting aspect in
Pakistan’s foreign exchanges reserves position,
the estimated cost seems unsustainable, as the Net this regards had been that each time
FX Reserve held by SBP (US $ 9.7 billion)28 were not Pakistan was blacklisted, India was
foreign direct investments but loans. the chair of the APG. In short, it can be
Similarly, if Pakistan remained in economic stated that the economic domain, its
uncertainty the direct and indirect costs to the timing and the particular condition of
larger macro-economic framework were to remain
higher and widespread.29 the Pakistan’s economy was chosen for
the strike to create the desired effects
The second challenge was compliance with
FATF and the APG- FATF regional style body. in the military domain
Pakistan was “Grey Listed”30 and the potential of
being “Black Listed by FATF remains alive till to
Pakistan made a high-level political
date’’. The Country remained in Grey List from
commitment to work with the FATF and APG to
February 2012-2014 on the plea that domestic
strengthen its AML/CFT [anti money laundering/
legal and regulatory frameworks were not enough
combating financing of terrorism] regime and to
to meet the global standards for effectively
address its strategic counter-terrorist financing-
combating the twin menaces of money laundering
related deficiencies. Steps were taken to improve
and terrorist financing.
its AML/CFT regime, including through the
Pakistan was taken out of the Grey List operationalization of the integrated database for
in 2015 when APG acknowledged the will and its currency declaration regime.
tangible efforts of Government of Pakistan and
“Given the limited progress on action plan
its institutions towards meeting the new set of
items due in January 2019, the FATF urged Pakistan
requirements. Pakistan was again Grey Listed in
to swiftly complete its action plan, particularly
2018 and FATF made an official statement that
those with timelines of May 2019”.31 The most
Pakistan was allegedly failing to curb anti-terror
interesting aspect in this regards had been that
financing.

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

Pakistan must go all out to make of hybrid war against Pakistan. However, it did
create few lessons in the military domain inter alia
the world realize that its commitment they were:
against illegal financing/ money Selected kinetic operations were conducted in
laundering must not be judged by the military domain to offset the Pakistani ability to
peculiar geo-political conditions respond, however, the gains in the other domains
created by India remained short of the desired end objective for
domination of the war cycle by New Delhi, as the
escalation dominance was lost earlier in the war
each time Pakistan was blacklisted, India was the cycle by New Delhi to Islamabad
chair of the APG. In short, it can be stated that the For New Delhi, the strategy was based on
economic domain, its timing and the particular the use of force and select kinetic operations
condition of the Pakistan’s economy was chosen through the use of counter terrorism framework
for the strike to create the desired effects in the to legitimatize war while keeping it limited to
military domain. a desired level. The US alliance was to add to
The FATF had posited that “Pakistan the security architecture built around the use of
had revised its TF [terrorism financing] risk force and use of economic coercion to restrict
assessment; however, it did not demonstrate the military options available to Islamabad.
a proper understanding of the TF risks posed
by “Da’esh, Al Qaeda, Jamaatud Dawa, Falah- For India the choice of target was
i-Insaniyat Foundation, Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, to shift the gains from the information,
Jaish-e-Muhammad, the Haqqani Network, and economic, diplomatic domain to the
persons affiliated with the Taliban”.32 In short it military domain and the nuclear
can be concluded that the economic domain was
used along with the CT domain and Kashmir to domain; all to create compellence
recreate effects in other domain, ultimately draw
in Pakistan’s response over Kashmir. The strategy of use of force defined through
counter terrorism also could not be used beyond
For the economic domain Pakistan needed the first cycle of conflict as a single domain
to follow two pronged strategy to fight out the that is inter alia military, because the fear was
situation; firstly an intense diplomatic campaign that the war may not remain limited and a
in the world capitals and United Nations for larger scale war could breakout, hence the
complete and proper de-escalation to avoid heavy use of single domain had limited value. The
economic costs. Secondly, Pakistan must go all out counter terrorism framework was inter alia used
to make world realize that its commitment against as to shift domains that is back from the military
illegal financing/money laundering must not be domain to the economic, political, diplomatic and
judged by peculiar geo-political conditions created ultimately the counter terrorism framework to
by India. draw in the benefits of the select kinetic operations
in the military domain. The shift allowed India
Military Domain to draw in the benefits despite a failed attempt
In terms of military effects the use of airstrikes in the military domain. The war effort shifted
by both India and then respectively Pakistan have to the diplomatic and economic domain, with
presented perhaps a unique example of a limited the alliance relationship of India - US. Pakistan
war, which has centered on non-military target
engagement by both sides. The war, perhaps
the shortest war between Indian and Pakistan,
with the most intense military standoff had the
most significant lesson for the future of military
engagement in the region. It clarified that no
future war in this region could remain limited if
the two sides aimed to achieve strategic effects for
each party.
For India, the choice of target was to shift the
gains from the information, economic, diplomatic
domain to the military domain and the nuclear
domain; all to create compellence.
Limited in space, time and military effects it
created a case for most complex nuclear deterrence
application. Secondly, this signals the application

Green Book 2020 87

 PAKISTAN ARMY

The change of employment as well as the

sequence of employment from AIR, MISSILE,
NAVAL to INFO, DIPLOMATIC and ECONOMIC
signal the following that a) this change in military
strategy to use preemption , air , missile and naval
domain will remain a strategy of choice and this
may be improved upon in the future with increased
technological and conventional asymmetry; a real
possibility; b) less the complete mobilization of
the land forces was aimed at creating a response
dilemma for the use of land forces by Islamabad;
and not actually a battle option for New Delhi as
this would have escalated the war cycle into a
larger war between the two; c) the military effects
were designed to support the info, diplomatic
and economic domain of the military strategy
Ex-Indian General (Lt Gen (R) Syed Ata Hasnain) lauds which were retracted due to the Pakistani military
ISPR for ‘defeating India’ in Hybrid War response and the downing of the two Indian
aircrafts and the capture of the Indian pilot. The
banned Masood Azher as well as went into furious Pakistani dominance of the information domain in
negotiations with the FATF Asia Pacific Group on terms of raising questions to the use of false flag
counter terrorism, despite the Indian chairmanship operation by India at the sub conventional level
(a conflict of interest). The fear for blacklisting and to initiate or to attempt a surgical strike vis-a-vis
the possibility of economic coercion had been Pakistan would not go unchallenged, may even
one of the major factors that the deterrence was fail to create the use of select kinetic operations
created in the military domain to keep the war under nuclear overhang.
limited. Immediately, after the Pulwama attack,
the Indian Prime Minister took war over Kashmir to The shortest India Pakistan war and nuclear
Pakistan despite the fact that there were no initial standoff still remains a threat for future exchange
investigations carried out prior to the allegations of military strikes, particularly as cross-domain
leveled against Islamabad particularly when the deterrence is not in place for the two nuclear
matter was taken over to UNSC to garner support protagonists.
and define the occurrence (Kashmir uprising) as a Designed for cross domain compellence where
counter terrorism challenge. gains in one domain were to shift in next domain
However, two subsequent results came out as primarily economic, diplomatic and information
result of this domain; one the UNSC President’s domain, it appears that the absence of cross
statement on the 28 February 2019 asking domain deterrence framework between the two
Islamabad to ban JEM as terrorist organization and parties created the stalemate as well as to certain
two, enter into deliberations on further conditions degree, the restoration of deterrence equation
as per the provisions of the FATF, though the later between the two states.
was not part of the UNSC statement but was part When an opponent has “no incentive to initiate
of the framework in the political/ diplomatic or escalate conflict at any given intervention
domain in the building of the economic domain
or escalation threshold in any given domain of
to be used against Islamabad, central to the use of
warfare—both vertically and horizontally within
compellence as a use of strategy.
that domain and laterally into one or more
additional domains of warfare—successful cross-
domain deterrence can be said to be in effect.33
When an opponent has “no However, before the debate can move to the
incentive to initiate or escalate relatively newer plane of Cross Domain Deterrence
conflict at any given intervention or it is important that deterrence is established if,”
escalation threshold in any given it operates both before and during a conflict,
either by punishing the adversary or by denying it
domain of warfare—both vertically and benefits sought through aggression”.34
horizontally within that domain and
In the absence of this, if the use of aggression
laterally into one or more additional as a policy is to create coercion (influence strategic
domains of warfare—successful Cross- choices), or to compel the adversary to choose
Domain Deterrence can be said to be amongst options that it must act for the fear of
in effect consequences; certain steps are required.35

88 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

The strategy must not envisage the

use of an all-out punishment as it may
be counterproductive. It may escalate
the conflict to the level, where the
incentive for compromise is far below
than the incentive for establishing
deterrence by punishment

In order, to compel or coerce a nuclear

adversary certain preconditions are necessary,
inter alia these are:
ƒƒ It is necessary that effects based strategy
be created in multiple domains and not in a
single domain of application.
ƒƒ This must be complimented by quick shifts
from military domain to the information to
economic, diplomatic and political. aggression so that the ultimate aggression
remains attributable and something beyond
ƒƒ For compellence or coercion to work it must control.37 This is aimed at creating a response
allow the opponent to choose a compromise. dilemma in the opposing side and to sow
ƒƒ The strategy must not envisage the use reasonable doubt as to the identity and
of an all-out punishment as it may be responsibility of the ultimate instigator of the
counterproductive. It may escalate the aggression.38
conflict to the level, where the incentive for ƒƒ The international community must remain
compromise is far below than the incentive for unsure of the nature of the act and the
establishing deterrence by punishment. aggression committed by the aggressor, this
ƒƒ For deterrence to work it is necessary that must be denied to the international community
the deterrer is able to hold something, which as a course of action.
the aggressor holds in value and risk to it, is The aim of such strategy is to create strategic
considered as incalculable. paralysis in the decision makers and to create an
ƒƒ The state of technology can either contribute overt strategic and tactical surprise, where the
to or detract from the effectiveness of deterrent gains of one are shifted to the next domain.
threat; both intra conflict first strike and crises In order to deter this successfully, the deterrer
stability.36 must be able to preempt these attempts to
ƒƒ The.“threshold that first trigger, actions manipulate or compromise its intervention and
threatened as part of the deterrent strategy” escalation thresholds.39
(intervention thresholds) form an essential
component of deterrence.
Nuclear Domain
On 26 February the IAF violated the Pakistani
ƒƒ The intra conflict break points define the
air space and carried out an act of war by an attack
decision making stress as in the face of
on a site in Pakistan, at Balakot. The aggression
miscalculation. These if misunderstood,
and attack was categorized by India as a “counter
can lead to a vertical escalation and vertical
terrorism” strike and displayed the Indian resolve
escalation thresholds; the most deadly phase
to fight a limited war under a “nuclear overhang”.
in a given domain of warfare.
Pakistan regained deterrence by a counter
ƒƒ A deliberate ambiguity is created in the
attack on 27th February 2019, by hitting six non-
definition of the aggressor as well as the
military targets in India. These targets were

For deterrence to work it is necessary The aim of such strategy is to create

that the deterrer is able to hold strategic paralysis in the decision
something, which the aggressor holds makers and to create an overt strategic
in value and risk to it, is considered as and tactical surprise, where the gains
incalculable of one are shifted to the next domain

Green Book 2020 89

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Pakistan Navy detected and blocked Indian Navy Submarine from entering into Pakistani waters, (6 March 2019)

engaged from within the line of control. This led military domain by New Delhi as the vessel was
to escalation in India to the next two domains in not accompanied by the necessary naval vessels
succession; the missile (India moved it is Brahamos that could have created an effect. However, if it
regiments to high alert) and its submarines (had was kept deliberately less than the necessary
entered Pakistan’s naval waters). effective combat effectiveness to acquire select
kinetic operation, then the question remains
The introduction of the strategic weapons by how were the effects achieved to translate it into
India in the immediate aftermath of Pakistan’s an effective deterrent capacity in the military
counter response has indicated an immediate domain.
escalation in the war cycle by New Delhi to the
nuclear and strategic domain. These threats Primarily because India claimed that there
were matched by Pakistan‘s resolve to mitigate were more vessels and Pakistan was deterred
any incoming missile threat with Pakistani due to this, not to expand the military domain.
threat of missile strike, in case of Indian missile However, if the New Delhi’s claim was right
misadventure.40 The missile standoff however and if such large number of vessels were able
could not create a complete deterrent effect. to reposition themselves against Pakistan with
India shifted its attack into the naval domain and possible amphibious operation capacity, than
the Indian naval vessels entered into dangerous this could not have been done in isolation or
proximity of the Pakistani territorial waters.41 without visibility. If such operations were halted
to ensure that the use of naval domain remained
This Indian naval mobilization was stated by limited. If it is the desired intent than there are
New Delhi as one of the largest, made possible bigger questions about India’s naval potential in
due to the Tropex19 naval exercises of India. The carrying out a policy of coercion against Islamabad
Tropex 19 exercises allegedly led to the availability simply because complete or even limited success
of such large number of combat ready vessels for
redeployment against Pakistan on a short notice. Post nuclearisation of Indian Ocean,
“The message of this posturing is deterrence”
stated the former Indian Naval Chief Admiral Arun traditionally the biggest challenge for
Prakash.42 New Delhi has remained to maintain
During the “exercise 60 Indian navy ships, the relevance of a conventional
12 coast guards and 60 aircrafts were stretched superiority in a nuclear environment
from east coast of Africa till Straits of Malacca”.43
However during the reposition of these vessels in against the Pakistani defense in the naval domain
the Indian Ocean the naval mobilization remained was not visible during the course of the crises.
far below the desired level to create a meaningful
offensive posture. This created a challenge with regards to how to
draw in the space for limited war against Pakistan
Theoretically, the presence of an Indian aircraft than let alone to create dominance of the nuclear
carrier should be accompanied with minimum domain for New Delhi, without inciting the risk of
two destroyers or at least two frigates, few smaller an outbreak of a larger scale war between the two
vessels and a few submarines. In addition, the nuclear armed adversaries.
manner in which the naval vessel that is inter
alia the aircraft was engaged in the military The use of the naval option by New Delhi
brinksmanship did raise basic questions with and then limited offensive outreach indicated
regards to the utility of the naval option in the that the nuclear domain after the failure of direct

90 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

The compellence in the economic

and political domain could not stop
Pakistan from responding back in the
military domain though it did create
an effect to keep the war cycle at lower
levels of engagement

deterrence in 26th February was reestablished by

the single domain response in the aerial combat
and initiative dominance in a single military
domain; the result being that of deterrence as
it stood reestablished. Here following questions
are raised:
One, that although the operations were
designed as part of the exercises to be shifted
for battle readiness, but due to operational
inefficiency, the time and combat effectiveness the Indian fighter jet downed by PAF - 27 Feburary, 2019
naval vessels did not reach in time; or Pakistan
navy and armed forces locked targets in time and A state is likely to indulge in such a war if it
New Delhi could not risk a naval missile strike believes that it has reasonable intelligence that
without huge loss in naval assets. This brings into the threat is imminent; two, all other options of
question the response readiness of Pakistan naval policy have failed and three, it must be seen in the
assets ,which had put a restraint to the option of framework of probable costs as well as expected
limited strike two, what would be the fate of such benefits.45 Stated as a quest for absolute security,
an option if they are used during a multi nation this has been contested by its opponents on the
naval exercise in Pakistani waters in the future. account that absolute security is not attainable by
(That could be reposition for war under alliance mere military activity.
partners of New Delhi). In such a case what would
be the response options for Islamabad, these Second, “preventive war is a war, the only
remain challenges for the defense planners. differentiating aspect is the timing”46 Third, the
gains of a preemptive war outweigh the costs. If
Second, if the understanding was to keep these conditions are not met, brinksmanship in
Pakistani assets in the Arabian sea or the Indian the nuclear domain can offset all gains in the other
ocean, it ran contrary to the defense aspiration domains in case if a major war breaks out.
of Islamabad, that has maintained that the
force posture of the Pakistan naval operations is In conclusion, it can be stated that while the
primarily defense with joint operations efficacy aim of the effort was to dominate the war cycle
followed by offensive operations only under and create Cross Domain Deterrence through the
certain conditions. Hence this clearly manifests economic, political and diplomatic domination
as failed naval posturing by New Delhi during the of the war cycle it remained short of execution
crises. and total victory, as the threat of large scale war
far outweighed the gains. The compellence in the
Post nuclearisation of the Indian ocean economic and political domain could not stop
traditionally the biggest challenge for New Delhi Pakistan from responding back in the military
has remained to maintain the relevance of a domain though it did create an effect to keep the
conventional superiority in a nuclear environment. war cycle at lower levels of engagement.
And secondly to create a space for a limited war
under the Pakistani nuclear threshold in a manner The only victory gained in this respect has
where coercion could be exercised to create been the relative pause to use the military option
compellence. This desire remained unfulfilled as in a larger proportion, as such use could offset the
nuclear domain balance could not be shifted in the advantages of other domains, as no war between
favor of New Delhi without fighting an actual war; India and Pakistan can remain limited in time,
hence the possibility of escalation. space or effects.
Conclusion Dr Maria Sultan is the Chairperson and the
“A precautionary war is one waged not out of a Director General of the South Asian Strategic
strong conviction that a dangerous threat is brewing Stability Institute (SASSI) University. She is
in the target state, but rather because it is suspected also an advisor to the Ministry of Defence on
that such a threat might one day emerge’’.44 Strategic and Military Affairs

Green Book 2020 91

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Notes 20. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-press-secre-

tary-terrorist-attack-india/
1. A high order war is a “state on state conflict that includes one or more than
one element of the following: a declaration of interstate war; large-scale pro- 21. India, Pakistan and Pulwama Crisis”, updated26 feburary2019, US congres-
tracted or strategically decisive conventional combat or a nuclear attack or sional research service, for further details see http://crseports.congress.gov.
exchange” for further details see. Coinable, B., J. H. Campbell, and D. Mad-
den, Stretching and Exploiting thresholds for High-Order War: How Russia, 22. The News, 24 February 2019,“Hurriyat leaders among dozens held in IHK”,
China, and Iran Are Eroding American In Influence Using Time-Tested Mea- for further details see: https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/435987-hurriyat-
sures Short of War, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-1003-A, leaders-among-dozens-held-in-ihk
2016. As of January 31, 2018: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/
23. The News, 26 feburary2019, War hysteria: IHK people stock up on essentials
RR1003.html
for further details see,https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/437102-war-hyste-
2. Cross domain deterrence in US China Strategy, James Couras, Edward ria-ihk-people-stock-up-on-essentials
Smyth, Thomas Mahnken (Maryland: John Hopkins university 2107), p Vii.
24. Dr Shazia Ghani, “Geo economic Challenges of Pulwama Incident and FATF
3. Dinshaw Mistry’, Complexity of Deterrence among new nuclear weapon implications”, SASSI Strategy Paper No 2, March 2019. Dr. Shazia Ghani
states; the India-Pakistan Case’, in T.V.Paul, Patrick M . Morgan, and James is currently working as Director Economic Policy Affairs & Belt and Road
J, Wirtz, (eds), Complex Deterrence Strategy in the Global Age (Chicago: Initiative, South Asian Strategic Stability Institute University. The views ex-
University of Chicago Press, 2009), p,183. pressed in the article are those of author only.
2- https://www.dawn.com/
news/1475102
3- https://www.dawn.com/news/1474558
4. Ibid, pp 184-187.
25. Ibid
5. Ibid, pp 195-197.
26. Ibid
6. India and Pakistan have both faced numerous military crises since the CSD‘s
operationalization. The crises and military standoff lasted in most occasions 27. Asian Development Bank Outlook, April 2019 https://www.adb.org/sites/de-
more than a year inter alia such as, military standoff of 2001-2002, 2007-8, fault/files/publication/492711/ado2019.pdf
2012-2014, 2016-17, and 2018. 8
28. http://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/forex.pdf http://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/
7. Joy Mitra, India’s Land Warfare Doctrine 2018: Hoping for the Best, Preparing forex.pdf
for the Worst, 03 January 2019. For further details see: http: A 2018 itera- 29. The indirect costs like increase in inflation, decline in industrial productivity,
tion of India’s Land Warfare Doctrine merits a close look.https://thediplomat. decline in exports, deterioration in currency etc. will soon trickle down up to
com/2019/01/indias-land-warfare-doctrine-2018-hoping-for-the-best-prepar- the economy of masses and Pakistan will be in internal economic security
ing-for-the-worst/ situation. All this will lead up to have GDP growth Rate even less than 3
8. Ibid to 4 percent. Currently, Pakistan’s external account is not sustainable and
constant conflict as designed by India’s strategic planners will destroy the
9. Ibid economy if a proper de-escalation is not happened after May 2019.
10. The DEWs have been identified by HQ IDS as the key thrust area until 2025; 30. http://www.fatf-gafi.org/publications/high-risk-and-other-monitored-jurisdic-
according to the Indian Ministry of Defence’s Headquarters Integrated De- tions/documents/public-statement-february- 2019.html
fence Staff (HQ IDS) – a joint service headquarters of all three services of
the Indian Armed Forces, namely the Army, Navy, and Air Force – acts as 31. Dr shazia Ghani , Opcit.
the point organization for integration of policy, doctrine, war fighting, and pro- 32. Ibid
curement. For further details see : “THE SOUTH ASIA CHANNEL: Directed
Energy Weapons, India’s Strategic Game Changer?,” foreign policy, http: 33. King Mallory,New Challenges in Cross Domain Deterrence, RandCoop-
https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/08/15/directed-energy-weapons-indias-strate- erationhttps://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PE200/
gic-game-changer/# PE259/RAND_PE259.pdf
11. 4 hours, choppers and 38 kills: How India avenged the Uri attack 12 july201z 34. Lawrence Freedman, Deterrence, (Cambridge,UK: Polity Press 2004)
Read more at://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/54579855.
cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_cam- 35. King Mallory, Op cit ,p 3
paign=cppsthttps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/army-con- 36. King Mallory, Opciit,p5.
ducted-surgical-strikes-on-terror-launch-pads-on-loc-significant-casual-
ties-caused-dgmo/printarticle/54579855.cms 37. Ibid
12. M Ilyas Khan, India’s ‘surgical strikes’ in Kashmir: Truth or illusion?,23 oc- 38. Ibid
tober2016, for further details see: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-in-
dia-37702790 39. Connable, B., J. H. Campbell, and D. Madden, Stretching and Exploiting
resholds for High-Order War: How Russia, China, and Iran Are Eroding Amer-
13. Samir Saran, and Ashok Malik “India’s new Pakistan strategy: It raises the ican In uence Using Time-Tested Measures Short of War, Santa Monica, Ca-
costs for nurturing terror even if isolating Pakistan is not entirely feasible,” (24 lif.: RAND Corporation, RR-1003-A, 2016. As of January 31, 2018: for further
October 2016, https://www.orfonline.org/research/indias-new-pakistan-strat- details see https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1003.html
egy-raises-costs-for-terror-islolation-not-possible/
40. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-kashmir-crisis-insight/india-pa-
14. Pulwama attack: Pakistan warns India against military actionhttps://www.bbc. kistan-threatened-to-unleash-missiles-at-each-other-sources-idUSKCN-
com/news/world-asia-india-47290107 1QY03T
15. Ibid 41. India has 1 aircraft carrier,1 nuclear power attack submarine ,14 convention-
ally powered submarines, and attack ships..https://www.hindustantimes.com/
16. UNSC Condemns Pulwama Attack, Notes That Jaish-e-Mohammad Claimed india-news/naval-build-up-in-arabian-sea-puts-pakistan-on-back-foot/story-
Responsibilityhttps://thewire.in/security/un-security-council-pulwama-at-
tack-jem 42. Ibid
17. United Nations Security Council (UNSC)President’ Anatolio Ndong Aba state- 43. India deployed nuclear missile Armed submarine during Standoff with Pak
ment UNSC/13712, 21 feburary2019,Security Council Press Statement on for further details see http://ndtv.com/india-news/india-deployed-nuclear-mis-
Suicide Bombing in Jammu and Kashmir https://www.un.org/press/en/2019/ sile-armed-submarine-during-standoff-with pakistan-2009178.
sc13712.doc.htm
44. Colin S. Gray , THE IMPLICATIONS OF PREEMPTIVE AND PREVENTIVE
18. India again threatens to restrict flow of river water to Pakistan as tension WAR DOCTRINES: A RECONSIDERATION, (July 2007) for further details
builds,22 February 2019,for further details see: https://www.theguardian. see: http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/
com/world/2019/feb/22/india-again-threatens-to-restrict-flow-of-river-water-
to-pakistan-as-tension-builds 45. Ibid

19. India, Pakistan and Pulwama Crisis”, updated26 feburary2019, US congres- 46. Ibid, piX
sional research service, for further details see http://crseports.congress.gov.

92 Green Book 2020

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COUNTER TERRORISM:
THE WAR OF
NARRATIVES Dr Sheharyar Khan

Abstract
Counter Terrorism strategies are increasingly incorporating countering terrorist groups’ narrative as well.
However, there is still ambiguity on the meaning of narrative. Pakistan has also adopted several counter
narrative initiatives yet all these efforts still need to be synchronized in order to effectively counter the
narratives of different terrorist groups. This paper highlights the importance of narratives, deconstructs
the narratives of religious, communal, sectarian and ethnic types of terrorist groups and provides a
counter narrative model to counter all these different types of terrorist groups in Pakistan.
Keywords: Narrative, Counter Terrorism, Strategic Communication, Information Operations, Civil Society,
Social Media, Jihad, Propaganda, Alternative Narrative

Green Book 2020 93

 PAKISTAN ARMY

T
he menace of terrorism is still looming
large over societies despite multifaceted Terrorists are able to influence
efforts being carried out by states and minds and perception of the people
their law enforcement agencies. The by constructing a simple but well-
US global war on terror is far from over
and terrorists have spread their tentacles to all
understood narrative. That is why they
corners of the globe. Pakistan too has borne keep attracting youth and can easily
the brunt of terrorism in past two decades. The replenish their foot soldiers
kinetic operations are successful and have greatly
reduced the threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, the
One of the reasons of this struggle was that the
idea of using terrorism as tactics for political goals
government did not focus much on defeating
is still relevant. Terrorism in Pakistan manifests
the ideology of terrorism. All counter-terrorism
itself in different ideological shades like religious,
efforts were focused only on building consensus
sectarian, ethnic and communal. The causes of
for its kinetic operations. It took a while for the
terrorism are myriad and are beyond the scope of
government to realize the importance of narrative
this paper. There is a growing understanding by
in its fight against terrorism. However, there was
different states and international bodies regarding
lack of understanding and empirical research on
the importance of counter-narrative operations as
deconstructing the narratives of different terrorist
necessary tool in counter-terrorism efforts.
groups in Pakistan.
Narrative is a coherent system of This paper is an attempt to highlight the
interrelated and sequentially organized importance of narrative in counter-terrorism
efforts of the government. Furthermore, popular
stories-sequence of related events— narratives of the terrorist organizations will be
that share a common rhetorical desire deconstructed in the light of academic studies
to resolve a conflict by establishing carried out on the subject. The paper will propose
audience expectations according to a model of counter-narrative to fight terrorism in
Pakistan.
the known trajectories of its literary
and rhetorical form Defining Narrative
(Alex Schmid) To understand the narrative of terrorists,
there is need to reach a definition. Different
Understanding the narrative of terrorist group academic studies have identified the features of
is the key to understanding terrorism. Terrorists a narrative. Alex Shmid, a renowned authority
are able to influence minds and perception of on terrorism, defines narrative as a coherent
the people by constructing a simple but well- system of interrelated and sequentially organized
understood narrative. That is why they keep stories-sequence of related events—that share a
attracting youth and can easily replenish their common rhetorical desire to resolve a conflict by
foot soldiers. Terrorists target youth with their establishing audience expectations according
propaganda on the internet and social media. to the known trajectories of its literary and
In this digital age, social media platforms have rhetorical form.1 Steve Corman adds that narrative
become a powerful tool for spreading terrorist is a system of stories that share themes, forms,
narratives. The youth depend on social media and archetypes.2 The stories comprising these
to not only express themselves but also develop narratives are inspired by real events rooted in the
a sense of belonging. The main objectives of geo-contextual history and popular traditions of
terrorists on the social media are engagement, the targeted country. According to Corman, every
propaganda, radicalization and recruitment. One story in a narrative need not to have exactly the
of the main elements of counter terrorism efforts same characteristics; however, they relate to one
is to understand narratives of terrorists and then another in a way that creates a unified whole that
counter it with an alternative or counter narrative is greater than the sum of its parts.3
by the government. A lot of time, energy and
resources are spent to fight the enemy through Halverson, Goodall and Corman in their
strategic communication, alternative narratives book “Master Narratives of Islamist Extremism”
and messaging.
When Pakistan started its war on terrorism, Every story in a narrative need not to
the government narrative was not popular while have exactly the same characteristics;
that of terrorists’ was widely accepted. The however, they relate to one another in a
government struggled to win hearts and minds way that creates a unified whole that is
of its own people in its fight against terrorism.
greater than the sum of its parts

94 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

explains that a narrative is defined as a story The stories comprising these

that produces meaning and is tied to identity. narratives are inspired by real events
They point out that “these stories are so deeply
ingrained in cultures that they are an essential rooted in the geo-contextual history
part of people’s identities and who they are in any and popular traditions of the targeted
given cultural setting”. Halverson further explains country
that “.... culture is referring to an interrelated
set of shared characteristics claimed by ethics,
social, religious group, to which human beings Alex Schmid8 has also found additional
collectively identify”.4 A narrative will connect to narratives used by religious extremists: “Suicide
the basic notion of where we are from, what shall operations as an asymmetric tactics of warfare
we do, what activities need to be organized, what against enemies who are legitimate; no distinction
we believe as a good Muslim5. Alex Schmid6 quoted is made between civilian and military targets in the
George Dimitriu’s definition of narratives as “a fight against enemies; the killing of other Muslims
resource for political actors to construct a shared is justified for their complicity with the West or
meaning to shape perceptions, beliefs and behavior with “apostate” Muslim governments which stand
of the public”, they offer a structure through which in the way of introducing strict Sharia law and an
“a shared sense is achieved, representing a past, Islamic state; a concept which they misinterpret
present and future, an obstacle and a desired end- themselves”.
point”. Another study conducted by Hedayah, the
International Center of Excellence of Countering
The main themes that appear in Violent Extremism (CVE) based in Abu Dhabi,
TTP’s narratives are the enforcement found four main themes in the terrorists’
narratives: 1) Religious or ideological narrative
of their concocted version of Sharia law (e.g. the concept of Jihad and the difference
as the best political and social system between Muslim and Non-Muslim); 2) political
for Pakistan; that jihad is legal and narrative (e.g. government legitimacy, concept
only option against non-believers, and of state, caliphate); 3) social-heroic narrative
(e.g. glorification of violent acts, grievances,
Pakistani state is “apostate” and ally of social pressure); and 4) economic narrative (e.g.
non-believers economic marginalization).9

Deconstructing Terrorists’ Narrative

A number of studies have been done on the
deconstruction of terrorist groups’ narratives. One
important contribution is from Halverson, Goodall
and Corman who have identified 13 narratives by
Jihadi extremists.7 They have done content analysis
of extremists’ statements, texts, and websites. One
of the master narratives which is frequently used
by the terrorists is about the seventy-two virgins
which they would get as reward in heaven if they
die as martyrs in fight against its enemy. This
promised reward can entice youth especially from
socially repressive societies where poor economic
conditions also make it harder for them to get
married. Other narratives that inspire people to
join terrorists: (i) a basic grievance-the Muslim
world is in chaos; (ii) for the Caliphate (Ideal
Islamic Society); (iii) true Muslims have to engage
in Jihad.
All the narratives of extremists relate with the
current issues faced by Muslims all over the world.
A narrative will connect to the basic Al-Qaeda has a strong single narrative: “a unifying
notion of where we are from, what framework of explanations that provides its
shall we do, what activities need to be followers with an emotionally satisfying portrayal
of the world in which they live and their role in
organized, what we believe as a good it, offering them a sense of identity and giving
Muslim meaning to their lives”10.

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The watershed moment came when terrorists attacked Army Public School (APS)
in Peshawar on 16 December 2014 killing 150 people including 134 children. The
tragic event of APS shocked the whole nation. The tragedy galvanized all the political
and armed forces to take decisive action against terrorists

To further breakdown the process of behavioral narratives are the enforcement of their concocted
change in the extremists when they are exposed version of Sharia law as the best political and
to terrorists narratives, Dr Borum, psychologist social system for Pakistan; that Jihad is legal and
from the University of South Florida, proposes a only option against non-believers, and Pakistani
four-stage development process of the ideology state is “apostate” and ally of non-believers.
of the terrorists: “The four-stage process begins The terrorist groups in Balochistan like
by framing some unsatisfying event, condition, or Balochistan Liberation Army, Balochistan
grievance (It’s not right) as being unjust (It’s not Republican Army, Balochistan Liberation Front,
fair). The injustice is blamed on a target policy, United Baluch Army and others are all nationalist
person, or nation (It’s your fault). The responsible and cessationist in their character. The main
party is then vilified-often demonized (You are theme in their narrative is economic and political
evil)”.11 discrimination in Balochistan, and liberation war
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which is the against the “illegal” occupation by Pakistan as
main terrorist group in Pakistan also shares its just and noble. This narrative is different from the
worldview with the global religious terrorist groups narratives of TTP and other religious groups since
like Al-Qaeda. TTP’s narrative is similar to the rest all these terrorist groups are ethno-nationalist and
of Islamic extremist groups, that appear in TTP’s secular in character.

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Pakistan has successfully dislodged extremists or supporting local communities

terrorists from tribal agencies and has against the terrorists’ propaganda.
pacified ethno-nationalist terrorists in In order to categorize the counter narrative
messaging, scholars of security Rachel Briggs
Balochistan and Sebastien Feve have created the “counter-
messaging spectrum” which clearly identifies
Sectarian groups like Lashkar-e-Jhangvi have a different types of communication.13 According to
narrow focus. The main narrative revolves around this spectrum there are three types of counter-
the notion that Shia Muslims are “heretics” (takfir) messages: government strategic communications,
and killing them is not only just but an Islamic alternative narratives, and counter-narratives.
duty such as Jihad. The narrative of communal Government strategic communications aim to
terrorism like attacks on Christians portrays them get the message out about what the government
as apostates and a threat to Islam. is doing including public awareness activities,
presenting government policy and strategy in a
Building a Counter Narrative positive light; this may take the form of a public
Hard and soft power both are used to fight awareness campaign. It may be achieved through
terrorism. But counter-terrorism needs more non-
kinetic operations after physically destroying
their space. Counter narrative is “the story or Counter narratives is “the story or
counter-argument utilized to reduce the appeal counter-argument utilized to reduce
of violent extremism.”12 Global initiatives of the appeal of violent extremism.”19
counter narrative are being conducted by various Global initiatives of counter narrative
supranational, international, regional, national
and sub-national actors. The key actor is the are being conducted by various
United Nations which has further inspired other supranational, international, regional,
institutions like Global Counterterrorism Forum national and sub-national actors
and Hedaya. European Union has also initiated
counter-narrative operations. International raising awareness, forging relationships with
organizations include North Atlantic Treaty
key constituencies and audiences and correcting
Organization and Organization for Security and
misinformation.
Cooperation in Europe. There are a number of
think tanks as well funded by governments and Alternative narratives are either undertaken
international organizations to conduct studies by a government or civil society which aim to
and suggest policy recommendations on counter undercut violent extremist narratives by focusing
narratives. But most importantly, tech companies on what we are ‘for’ rather than ‘against’ and
like facebook, and youtube have also taken steps is done by positive stories about social values,
to prevent misuse of their social media platforms tolerance, openness, freedom and democracy.
by extremist and terrorist actors. Lastly, counter narratives are designed to directly
Despite all these efforts at the global level there deconstruct, discredit and demystify violent
is still problem of unanimity in understanding the extremist messaging by challenge through
meaning of narrative which leads to ambiguity. ideology, logic, fact or humor.14
Counter narratives thus could mean government- Pakistan has successfully dislodged terrorists
led programs, de-radicalization projects, or civil from tribal agencies and has pacified ethno-
society’s awareness campaigns. There could be a nationalist terrorists in Balochistan. On the non-
number of audiences like extremists and terrorists, kinetic side of counter-terrorism, Pakistan has
sympathetic population, victim of terrorism or taken a number of measures but there is surely
general population at large. Counter narrative can more to be desired.
also mean different messages like discrediting
Pakistan’s Counter Narrative
The four-stage process begins by When Pakistan started its fight against
terrorism, political and popular will was divided.
framing some unsatisfying event, Extremists’ narrative was flying high. Law
condition, or grievance (It’s not right)
as being unjust (It’s not fair). The Tech companies like facebook, and
injustice is blamed on a target policy, youthube have also taken steps to
person, or nation (It’s your fault). The prevent misuse of their social media
responsible party is then vilified-often platforms by extremist and terrorist
demonized (You are evil) actors

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Alternative narratives are either undertaken by a government or civil society which

aim to undercut violent extremist narratives by focusing on what we are ‘for’ rather
than ‘against’ and is done by positive stories about social values, tolerance, openness,
freedom and democracy

enforcement agencies struggled to win political engaged for counter and alternative narratives.
and popular support to fight terrorist elements. The most recent example is the religious decree
As a result, even kinetic operations were delayed against terrorism labeled as Paigham-e-Pakistan
due to its unpopularity and potential political (Pakistan’s message). The decree was signed by
backlash. Counter-terrorism was restricted to 1800 religious scholars from different schools of
kinetic operations by different law enforcement thought.17 Besides, Pakistan also adopted cyber
agencies where Pakistan army had the leading crime law to disrupt terrorist presence on the
role. But all the security agencies lacked effective internet.18
coordination. There was a need of fusion center Despite all these efforts, the government still
of all the security and law enforcement agencies. lacks a unified response of counter narrative.
Pakistan set up National Counter Terrorism A narrative is good only when it’s simple to
Authority (NACTA) in 2009 to synchronize all its understand by the public at large and when people
counter-terrorism efforts yet the authority did not are able to identify with it. The government’s
become functional for several years. strategic communication is complex and on ad-
The watershed moment came when terrorists hoc basis. The efforts of different government
attacked APS in Peshawar on 16 December 2014 agencies have no focal agency which is dedicated
killing 150 people including 134 children.15 The to countering narrative, doing research on it and
tragic event of APS shocked the whole nation. designing narratives in scientific manner. This
paper suggests that the government needs to
Civil society and media has been unify all the isolated and un-coordinated efforts
of different agencies to effectively develop counter
engaged for counter and alternative narrative.
narratives. The most recent example is
Recommendations
the religious decree against terrorism
In order to counter the terrorists’ narratives,
labeled as Paigham -e- Pakistan Pakistani government should first of all under-
(Pakistan’s message). The decree was stand which narratives it wants to address
signed by 1800 religious scholars from (i.e.  narrative of grievance, injustice,  Jihad, takfir
different schools of thought etc). Since Pakistan is facing four types of terrorism
i.e. religious, sectarian, communal and ethnic,
it should devise different narrative strategies for
The tragedy galvanized all the political and armed all these types. Then, it must identify the target
forces to take decisive action against terrorists. The audience, define the objective, and develop the
government soon adopted National Action Plan to content, as well as evaluate the impact of the
fight terrorist’s and uproot the evil from society.16 counter-narrative programs. When the government
Constitutional amendments were made to set up launches strategic communication there is also
military courts to expedite the trial of terrorists. a risk of credibility gap with the target audience.
Operations against terrorists were also expedited As such, the government should take civil society
in North West region of Pakistan. These steps and media as well into its confidence. It should
greatly reduced terrorist attacks in Pakistan. TTP empower civil society for counter messaging.
was dislodged from its remaining stronghold while
intelligence based operations combed the whole Pakistan should develop its strategic
country for suspected terrorists and their hidden communication policy. The policy should not only
cells. incorporate factual information being transmitted
to target audience but it should also appeal to the
Law enforcement agencies were backed by emotional instinct of the target audience. This
the government, civil society, media and general strategic communication policy should be solely
population. NACTA also got its powers and started
to function. There is improved synchronization
of counter-terrorism efforts which has achieved Since the info environment is
positive results. Pakistan also focused on
counter-terrorist messaging. The government changing fast, the government should
and military strategic communication initiatives also consider adopting Artificial
have multiplied. Civil society and media has been Intelligence to its info operations

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as their physical destruction. Winning this war

The government info operations hugely depends upon understanding of the
should include media operations, terrorists’ narrative. Pakistan has initiated several
outreach and engagement activities, information operations to thwart terrorists’
psychological operations, deception propaganda but all these initiatives are not
coordinated and do not flow from single focal
and distraction from terrorist point. Despite successes there is much to be done,
agenda when it comes to counter narratives. Pakistan
has a dedicated counter terrorism authority,
NACTA, to be a central location for counter
for countering terrorists’ narrative on all media narrative operations. A comprehensive strategic
platforms especially on internet and social media. communication strategy needs to be designed,
The government should also consider setting up which will be dedicated only to countering
a centralized unit within NACTA to oversee and narratives of terrorists. Besides, civil society,
coordinate all this work, and employ full range of public figures, religious scholars, academia and
necessary expertise. media should also be engaged to disseminate
The government should raise awareness alternative and counter narratives.
regarding threat of terrorism to society through
different initiatives. It should correct information Dr M Sheharyar Khan is a well acknowledged
being abused by terrorists. The propaganda researcher on FATA, KPK and Afghanistan
of terrorists should be thwarted and factual
inaccuracy in their propaganda must be pointed
Notes

out. Disruption of terrorists’ messages on all 1. Schmid, Alex P., “Al-Qaida’s Single Narrative and Attempts to Develop
Counter - Narratives: The State of Knowledge,” The International Centre for
possible media and especially on the internet Counter Terrorism (ICCT) (January 2014), available at: https://www.icct.nl/
should be carried out. The government information download/file/Schmid-Al-Qaeda’s-Single-Narrative-and-Attempts-to-Devel-
op-Counter-Narratives-January-2014.pdf.
operations should include media operations, 2. Corman, Steven R., “Understanding the Role of Narrative in Extremist
outreach and engagement activities, psychological Strategic Communication,” in Sarah Canna (ed.), Countering Violent
operations, deception and distraction from Extremism: Scientific Method and Strategies (Lexington Park, MD: NSI, Inc.,
2011), p. 40.
terrorist agenda. 3. Ibid
To build alternative and counter narratives, 4. Jeffrey, R, Halverson HL, Goodall Jr, et al. Master narratives of Islamist
Pakistan should support and facilitate civil extremism.

society efforts to design and deliver alternative 5. Ibid.

narrative campaigns by funding and through in- 6. Schmid, Alex P, Al Qaeda’s “single narratives” and attempts to develop
counter-narratives: The state of knowledge.
kind support. It should help streamline private
7. Jeffrey, R, Halverson HL, Goodall Jr, et al. Master narratives of Islamist
sector engagement with grass-roots civil society extremism.
networks. Politicians, public figures, celebrities 8. Schmid, Alex P., Al Qaeda’s “single narratives” and attempts to develop
and religious scholars should be encouraged to counter-narratives: The state of knowledge.

present alternative narratives. The content of such 9. Zeiger, S. Undermining violent extremist narratives in South East
statements should be positive stories about social Asia, Available at http://www.hedayahcenter.org/Admin/Content/File-
3182016115528.pdf Hedayah, Abu Dhabi. [Accessed 21 Aug 2018]
and Islamic values, tolerance, and democracy. 10. Ibid.
Since the information environment is 11. Borum, RaWndy. Radicalization into violent extremism II: A review of
changing fast, the government should also conceptual models and empirical research. Journal of Strategic Security
2011; 4(4):37–62. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.4.4.2.
consider adopting artificial intelligence to its 12. Zeiger, S. Undermining violent extremist narratives in South East Asia.
information operations. Chatbots or chatter robots 13. Rachel Briggs and Sebastian Feve, “Review of Programs to Counter
are conversation entities, which rely on artificial Narratives of Violent Extremism.”Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2011.
intelligence to spread information, will be decisive Available at https://docplayer.net/4673424-Review-of-programs-to-counter-
narratives-of-violent-extremism.html.
in driving narratives on social media. Chatbots
could be used to fight terrorists’ propaganda on
14. Ibid.
15. Peshawar School Massacare, Britannica.com. Available at https://www.
the internet. britannica.com/event/Peshawar-school-massacre.

Conclusion 16. “National Action Plan, 2014 – NACTA – National Counter Terrorism Authority
NACTA Pakistan,” Available at https://nacta.gov.pk/nap-2014/.

Counter-terrorism consists of both kinetic 17. “Govt Unveils Paigham-I-Pakistan Fatwa against Terrorism,” DAWN.COM,
July 16, 2018, https://www.dawn.com/news/1383306/govt-unveils-paigham-
and non-kinetic operations. Kinetic operations i-pakistan-fatwa-against-terrorism.
in Pakistan have created an environment where 18. The Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act 2016, National Assembly of Pakistan,
the government can now focus on addressing the available at http://www.na.gov.pk/uploads/documents/1470910659_707.pdf.

root causes of terrorism. The defeat of terrorists’ 19. Zeiger, S. Undermining violent extremist narratives in South East Asia.

ideology is as important to the winning of war

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100 Green Book 2020

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Ahmer Bilal Soofi

LEGAL CHANGES REQUIRED

FOR REVIVAL OF THE PAKISTAN ECONOMY
Abstract
In an analysis that I have recently read about the economy of Pakistan, the author was of the opinion
that Pakistan’s growth must be driven by investment and productivity, which will put an end to the boom
and bust cycles that affect the country every few years. He was also of the view that that it was entirely
possible for Pakistan to transform its regulatory environment and reduce the cost of doing business. This
symptomatic analysis is by and large correct in relation to the economic malaise that currently ails the
economy of Pakistan and is routinely confirmed by my daily interaction with the business community
and my friends in different walks of life, especially in the civil service of Pakistan. As a lawyer also, I daily
confront and observe the legal and judicial process as it unfolds itself in the Courts’ proceedings and often
come to the realization that in addition to the purely economic wisdom, legal measures for the revival of
the economy are crucial. This piece thus is a humble effort to outline corrective remedies that need to be
taken by adopting remedial legal solutions.
Keywords: Pakistan, Economy, Regulatory Authority, Cost of Doing Business, DFI, Legal Environment, Legal
Measures/Reforms

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I
t is vital to resolve the economic crunch
without any unnecessary delay. One method Even where everything is ready to
to do this is to reduce the costs of doing be operationalized, more approvals are
business and the time required to actually required for commencement of actual
start business activities. Much delay is caused
in obtaining approvals from various regulatory business activities from the regulatory
authorities for setting up business infrastructure. authorities under various laws
This is not however the end of the approval
process. Even where everything is ready to be
operationalized, more approvals are required for Various suggestions requiring legal measures may
commencement of actual business activities from be made in this regard:
the regulatory authorities under various laws.
   Regulatory regime under Companies Act 2017
This situation is highly discouraging not only for
may be simplified and liberalized so that
the local business sector but also from the point
business activities may be undertaken and
of view of those who wish to make Direct Foreign
operationalized with less contact with red
Investment (DFI).
tape.
An example may suffice to clear the above
   Powers of provincial and central Boards of
observation. Modern business is mostly conducted
Investment may be increased. Instead of
by incorporating a company under the prevailing
making mere suggestions to the Government,
corporate laws. Certain laws (mining laws etc)
the Boards must be empowered to take
even require that no concession may be exploited
effective action as the Chief Executives
by the licensee except through incorporation of a
of concerned provinces and the Federal
company. However, section 19 of the Companies
Government and ministers and secretaries
Act 2017 imposes onerous conditions on the public
of various ministries are members of the
companies for commencement of business and for
respective Boards and once they have
borrowing and raising loans after incorporation of
resolved to take an action, it need not be
company and setting up of offices. Part XII of the
referred further to the Federal Government
Companies Act deals with “Foreign Companies”
for approval and notification.
and obliges them to fulfill various conditions before
commencement of business and continuation of    The Foreign Private Investment (Promotion
the same. and Protection) Act 1976 is in need of
complete overhauling. This law is now
The fundamental requirement to almost 43 years old and does not reflect
reverse the movement of recession the realities of international investment
environment. A special body of lawyers,
and negative productivity is by taking expert in international trade, investment
measures that help in increasing local and commercial law, need to be appointed
and foreign investment and boosting to make recommendations to bring various
provisions of this law in conformity with
productivity modern international investment practices.
Unless this law is revised, the likelihood of
It is therefore suggested that a wholly a substantial increase in FDI appears to be
separate legal regime may be devised for foreign utopian.
companies for incorporation and commencement
of business in order to attract maximum FDI. In
addition, present legal provisions applicable to
local as well as foreign companies for obtaining
several licenses and permissions before and after
commencement of business may be simplified
and only one person in the provincial and central
Boards of Investment may be authorized to issue
all approvals, permissions and licenses currently
required to be obtained from several authorities.
Increasing Investment and
Productivity
The fundamental requirement to reverse the
movement of recession and negative productivity
is by taking measures that help in increasing local
and foreign investment and boosting productivity.

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   Due to financial constraints experienced by

the Federal and Provincial governments, Region’s growth, while still robust,
no Keynesian policies may be adopted at is mainly driven by domestic demand,
governmental level to boost the economy
and raise the employment level. What is
which in turn swelled imports and far
needed is to encourage the private initiative. outstripped exports, further widening
In order to achieve this object, legal trade gaps and current account
amendments are required in various laws deficits, and triggering currency
that govern and regulate business activities,
capital markets, stock exchange activities depreciation in some countries
etc. Such amendments are needed which
bring the business environment in line with amendment, the subject of labor laws became a
the international standards. This will also provincial subject and the Parliament was no more
encourage the international business players competent to make a law that had for its subject
to invest in Pakistan economy. matter the topic of labor laws. Supreme Court did
not accept the contention. It was held that “Entry
International standardized codes No. 13 of Part II of the Federal Legislative List,
have greatly helped to bring ease which covered “Inter-provincial matters and co-
in doing business and have greatly ordination” also provided legislative authority to
the Federal legislature to enact laws relating to
boosted the volume of international inter-provincial matters/trade unions. Moreover
business Entry No. 18 of Part II of the said List enlarged
the scope of Entry No. 13. Federal legislature
Coordination Framework under the had the competence to legislate in relation to
18th Amendment establishments/trade unions functioning at the
Federal as well as trans-provincial level. Industrial
Eighteenth amendment to the Constitution Relations Act 2012 was therefore, validly enacted
of Pakistan was brought about in 2010. The by the Parliament.”
amendment in its nature is not self-executory but
requires further steps by the Federal Government Export Oriented Legal Changes
in order to devolve all functions and resources to The World Bank, in its Report issued in 2019
the provinces that are required to be devolved by “South Asia Economic Focus, Exports Wanted”
the provisions of the 18th amendment. has pithily observed that “the Region’s growth,
However, in so far as there are certain subjects while still robust, is mainly driven by domestic
such as tourism, local taxes, industry practices, demand, which in turn swelled imports and
application of labor laws and others of similar far outstripped exports, further widening trade
kind, which are vital for increase in revenue and gaps and current account deficits, and triggering
growth in economy, require uniform practices for currency depreciation in some countries”. I
standardized delivery of services. The concept of agree with this observation and am suggesting
uniform or standardized practices is applicable in below certain measures which require immediate
international course of business as well and there attention of the Government and the Parliament.
are various codes, such as relating to customs,
international sale of goods, banking practices
etc which have been formulated by various
international organizations and are being observed
the world over. These international standardized
codes have greatly helped to bring ease in doing
business and have greatly boosted the volume
of international business. Precisely the same
types of codes are required in Pakistan after 18th
amendment. For this purpose federal laws may be
promulgated under various entries in the Federal
Legislative List in the Constitution as confirmed
by the honorable Supreme Court in its decision
“Sui Southern Gas Limited versus Federation of
Pakistan” reported as 2018 SCMR 802.
In the above decision of Sui Southern Gas,
Industrial Relations Act of 2012 was challenged
on the ground that after passage of the 18th

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

In order to compete in the International prolonged period of time. Likewise, hundreds of

Market, it is a must that encouragement should commercial suits and proceedings are undecided
be provided to the local export industry as is the for a long period of time and the subject matter
practice world over. Present time is the time of of such suits or proceedings have ceased to be
the World Trade Organization regime. According an active part of economy. It is needed that such
to this regime, all nations are required to observe proceedings be decided with all due dispatch so
international competitive policies at national and that the economic resources may be used gainfully
international level. However, developing countries in the economic activities.
like Pakistan have been allowed exemptions in There are around 8000 federal and provincial
some fields of trade where they are allowed to adopt laws that govern different sectors of the economy.
measures which usually are prohibited to other After devolution through eighteenth amendment,
nations as they distort the competition principle. the domain of the provinces has considerably
It is suggested that Pakistan must introduce laws extended and it is upto the provinces to take
to make those exempted industries export oriented decisions about the revival of economy.
and in this connection a team of lawyers who are
expert in international laws alongwith industry An efficient and competent judiciary is a sine
experts may be commissioned to recommend draft qua non for the assurance that a country is under
laws in this respect. By encouraging the exempted rule of law. The international businessmen highly
industries through subsidies, tax concessions, prize a country where the judiciary is independent,
customs related relaxations and protections, competent and delivery of justice is speedy. Various
the exempted industries may be promoted as reforms in judiciary related laws are necessary for
export oriented and the ever existing shortage strengthening the working and independence of
of foreign exchange may be met. This will also the lower and higher echelons of the Courts. In
reduce frequent resort to international lending this regard, the Courts at both higher and lower
institutions. level should be empowered through appropriate
laws and with financial independence. Further,
Reforms in Judiciary it is required that the lower Courts be completely
Unless speedy legal reforms are brought in the made independent pursuant to the mandate of
judicial organ of the State, economic growth will Article 175 (3) of the Constitution and decisions
continue to suffer and stagnate. of Supreme Court in this regard. Hitherto, more
attention is given to conferring independence on
Thousands of acres of land lies locked as the the higher judiciary than on the lower Courts; this
title is not clear since it is under litigation for a discrimination must be brought to an end.

There are around 8000 federal and provincial laws that govern different sectors of
economy. After devolution through eighteenth amendment, the domain of the provinces
has considerably extended and it is upto the provinces to take decisions about the revival
of economy

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Another simmering and chronic problem is

the delay in the delivery of justice. Cases especially
relating to fiscal, commercial and property matters
keep on pending for indefinite periods. This
produces a jamming and retrograde effect upon
business, investment, industrial and banking
activities. One of the main hindrances in the way
of economic revival is delay in decision of cases
relating to fiscal, business and property matters.
The remedy lies in not only amending law to
the effect that cases of aforesaid nature must be

Almost 35% of litigation is frivolous

in nature and can be avoided by
providing legal provisions/ measures
such as penalties, costs and damages
is avoided by means of allowing maximum
decided on priority basis in a time bound frame autonomy to a public statutory body. For this
but it is also suggested that an independent forum purpose a governing body usually called a
must be established by law to monitor whether board of management or directors is established
the mandate of deciding such cases on priority within the statutory body which is vested with
and time bound basis is being observed or not. powers to take almost all the decisions relating
Establishment of such forum is of utmost necessity to the policy matters and functioning of the body
as earlier provisions in laws to decide cases and subject to the provisions of the parent statute. It
appeals (in corporate, banking and other laws) is undeniable that government has always been
within a time bound frame have produced no effect allowed some limited policy interference in the
and corporate, banking cases remain pending for statutory body but in case of statutory bodies in
years. Such forum must have effective legal powers Pakistan, it is common observation that they are
to oversee the swift disposal of cases of commercial routinely plagued with unnecessary interference
nature and where failure is observed, sanctions by the executive thereby hindering their smooth
need to be applied in order to produce compliance. functioning and efficiency and reducing them to
One reason for pending of a large number of the status of government departments.
cases is frivolous litigation. It is estimated that
almost 35% of litigation is frivolous in nature and Statutory bodies be allowed to be run
can be avoided by providing legal provisions which in the spirit in which they were conceived
by prescribing legal measures such as penalties,
costs and damages, will lessen the institution of without undue executive interference
frivolous litigation.
A case in point is Pakistan Railways. Pakistan
Another reason for delay in decision of cases Railways was established as a corporation through
is large number of cases on the daily docket of the Railways Act 1890. A ministry has been working in
judges. This naturally induces a judge to suffer the Cabinet for administration of Railway affairs.
unnecessary adjournments in the cases. One It was however considered desirable to entrust
solution is to legally increase the number of judges the railways affairs to an independent body
which will reduce the burden of cases on each and for this purpose provisions were made for
judge. The other solution is to curb the practice of establishment of an independent Board through
seeking and allowing of adjournments and in this promulgation of Railways Board Ordinance 1959
regard both the counsels and the Courts need to which was later repealed but the Board was
be legally controlled. A further reason for delay retained through executive notification. The
is corruption in courts which makes it easy to get Board was reconstituted in 2015. However, undue
adjournments by various ploys. This aspect of interference in the working and administration of
the matter should also be taken care of and legal the Board has been made from time to time and it
reform should also address the same. has not been allowed to function according to the
spirit in which it was created. The results are too
Functioning of Statutory Bodies/ obvious to be mentioned.
Public Sector Organizations
The same story may be narrated of Pakistan
Public statutory bodies have their genesis International Airlines which was created through
in the vision that flexible methods are required promulgation of Pakistan International Airlines
for swift service delivery. To this effect, red tape Corporation Act 1956 and later converted into an

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incorporated company through promulgation not only mars their efficiency but ultimately makes
of Pakistan International Airlines Corporation them moribund. Such interference also results in
(conversion) Act 2016. However, it has not been the public sector organization running in colossal
allowed to act according to its mandate through losses which are ultimately to be borne none other
the agency of its Board of Directors and executive than by the executive itself. Pakistan Steel Mill is a
interference has been rampant. case in point.
The National Bank of Pakistan was established Using Law as Innovative Tool for
through National Bank of Pakistan Ordinance
1949 as a premiere commercial bank also dealing Business Expansion
with government accounts. Major shareholder Innovative approaches by using legal tools for
of the Bank is the Federal Government but a business development may be employed. Hitherto,
Central Board was provided in the parent statute less attention has been paid to this creative aspect
to take care of all affairs of bank independently of law for the purposes of economic revival and
of government interference in order to run the business enhancement. In this regard, the Federal
bank on commercial lines. Undue governmental Board of Revenue (FBR) may play a critical role in
influence however has been extensive and there enhancing business activities and encouraging
had been episodes of governmental sway brought industrial development.
to bear upon the decisions of the Board to issue The FBR may issue a notification under
loans of colossal amount in violation of prudent appropriate law declaring that within an
practices and later writing them off. Further, terms area of hundred miles along the Durand Line,
and conditions of the staff are statutory which businessmen and industrialist taking business and
provide them opportunity to file cases in superior industrial initiatives shall be granted exemptions
courts which result in inefficiency and blockade in from certain taxes with regard to import and export
the functioning of the bank. of machinery, excise duty, sales tax etc for a period
It is therefore strongly recommended that of five years.
statutory bodies be allowed to be run in the spirit FBR can also motivate and incentivize local
in which they were conceived without undue and foreign businessmen by issuing an SRO
executive interference. The executive influence

The FBR may issue a notification under appropriate law declaring that within an area
of hundred miles along the Durand Line, businessmen and industrialist taking business
and industrial initiatives shall be granted exemptions from certain taxes with regard to
import and export of machinery, excise duty, sales tax etc for a period of five years

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under appropriate law to the effect that certain much damage to the already precarious economic
tax compliant companies, that may be mentioned conditions. I propose that NAB law needs to be
in the annexure to SRO, in case of bringing joint adjusted to the requirements of the present times.
ventures FDI in Pakistan, alongwith their foreign Present section 9 (a) (v) and (vi) of NAB law
partners, will be granted tax breaks and tax relate to the offences of “asset beyond means”
holidays. It may further be declared in the SRO that and ‘‘misuse of authority”. Presently, both
repatriation of investment and profits made by the are considered separate for the purposes of
joint venture is fully assured. investigation, inquiry and trial. However, in order
The current mode of bringing FDI in the country to dispel the fear and alarm as indicated above, it
needs rehauling. Under the existing regime, the is required that offence of “misuse of authority”
FDI can only be brought through government for the purposes of investigation, inquiry and trial,
channels and normally investment is made on should only be taken up when it is coupled with
government land. Such mode of investment the charge of “asset beyond means” . In short, the
involves a lot of red tape and is not suitable to woo offence of “misuse of authority” should not be by
the much required FDI in Pakistan. The result is itself a subject of investigation, inquiry or trial
that though the foreign businessmen is provided unless it is accompanied by the charge of “asset
personal approach to the Prime Minister, yet given beyond means”. For this purpose, the law should
the legal regime for making investment, he often be amended suitably. However, if amendment in
turns back dissatisfied and disillusioned. law is not possible, then another mode is suggested
below to achieve the same aim.
NAB Law
The Supreme Court has ample power and
The NAB law relates to the accountability of the jurisdiction to re-interpret section 9 and make
Public office holders. But it has been administered the two offences co-exist for the purposes of
in a way that has caused fear and alarm among investigation or filing of the reference under the
the civil servants and the businessmen. The effect NAB law. The Supreme Court can also rehabilitate
of such administration of law is that both civil the civil servants’ traditional indemnity. The
servants and businessmen are reluctant to take Supreme Court has undertaken such exercise in
decisions and initiate projects related to public several cases where public policy demanded to
welfare and revival of economy. This has caused discourage a specific existing interpretation of

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law and curbing the misuse of it in public interest.    Judicial reforms as suggested above need to
In this regard the case of Muhammad Mubeen be introduced.
us Salam vs Federation of Pakistan (PLD 2006    Reforms should be introduced for providing
SC 602) may be referred where Supreme Court ease in doing businesses and reducing the
reinterpreted the provisions of section 2-A of the cost of doing business.
Services Tribunal Act 1973 and thereby made
hundreds of cases pending in the Federal Services    Laws regarding the local investment and
Tribunal lapse. At that time the employees of FDI need to be overhauled by a committee of
public sector organizations had filed hundreds expert lawyers.
of cases in the Service Tribunal for specific    Statutory bodies must be allowed to function
performance of their employment contracts which without executive interference.
involved the government in unnecessary litigation.
Furthermore; a lot of expenses were involved in    Export oriented legal changes and role of FBR
pursuing litigation and carrying out of Tribunal’s needs to be further highlighted.
decisions. Such litigation also severely affected    Regulatory regime for investment and
the working of the public sector organizations and business needs to be reformed and liberal
discharge of public duties and delivery of public regime needs to be introduced including
services. The decision of Supreme Court went a revision of NAB law.
long way in rectifying the situation as amendment
in section 2-A was not possible under the prevailing Barrister Ahmer Bilal Soofi is former Federal
political pressures. Law Minister, Advocate Supreme Court of
Pakistan and President Research Society of
In conclusion, we summarize the International Law, Pakistan
above discussion as below:
   For the revival of the economy, innovative
legal tools and solutions need to be employed.

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FORMALIZING
PAKISTAN’S
INFORMAL ECONOMY

Dr Zafar Mahmood

Abstract
A major challenge being faced by Pakistan is formalizing its informal economy. This is a multifaceted
challenge as informality is a multidimensional phenomenon due to the heterogeneity of firms working
in the informal economy. Informality has undeniably undesirable implications for the economy and
society. It, indeed is a major hurdle to the advancement of socio-economic development of the country.
It is increasing, which reveals fast deterioration of the governance system. Therefore, it is urgent and
important to formalize the informal economy. Depending on the coverage, the informal sector reportedly
is equivalent to about 50-90% of the GDP in the formal sector. About 60% of the total employed workforce
is engaged in the informal sector. Most of the enterprises in the informal sector are envisaged to be either
household-based or small-scale. But, in reality, large-scale enterprises, that are registered and documented,
also have hidden parts—about 40-50% of their production and assets—from regulatory authorities,
including the tax department. Due to different sizes and activities, different strategies and policies need
to be devised to formalize the informal economy. Policies to promote and induce formalization should
also address the issues of productivity through skill development and innovation, ease-of-doing business
and reduction in cost-of-doing business, anti-informality bias in policies, etc. Key aspects of the strategic
policy reform should also include simplification of administrative procedures for business registration
by small enterprises, the development of adequate taxation regulations, creation of incentives related to
social security protection, the strengthening of information and inspection systems and elimination of the
menace of under-invoicing of imports. For enterprises, it is important that the transformation to formality
makes them a good business sense. For Pakistan, it is vital to capitalize on the potential of the informal
sector for realizing sustained stimulation of economic growth, giving way for increased government
spending on infrastructures development and higher quality social welfare programs. Conscientious
spending by the government, in turn, will create a sense of trust, for tax collected will ultimately be
utilized for the welfare of tax payees, thereby, stimulating the business sentiments for further growth and
documentation of the economy.
Keywords: Informal Economy, Formal Economy, Documentation, Strategic Policy Directions

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P
akistan’s economy is the 38th largest in
the world in terms of the gross domestic
Informality is basically the outcome
product (GDP). Pakistan has a population of insufficiency of legislations and
of 213 million (the world’s 5th-largest), legal procedures to facilitate the
providing it a per capita income of $1,497.3 (in establishment of formal enterprises
2018-19), which ranks it as the 147th country in the
world. These figures largely represent the formal
economy and are grossly under-reported. This Hence, rational and formal decision-makers are
is because, in addition to the formal economy, also being lured into informal/ hidden activities.
Pakistan has a large informal1 economy, which
is undocumented2 and is not reported in the The informal sector’s disproportionate size in
official data. Official unemployment rate is 5.8%, Pakistan, thus, is an outcome of weaknesses in the
which does not corroborate with the widespread governance of state institutions and lack of respect
underemployment of labour.3 for the law that is rooted in low entrepreneurial
capacities, and low financial, technological and
Informality is basically the outcome of human resources, which mutually cause low
insufficiency of legislations and legal procedures to productivity.6 The informal sector thus constrains
facilitate the establishment of formal enterprises, overall economic growth and limits the creation of
the declining role of the government in creating high quality and durable jobs; workers employed
new jobs4, rising unemployment, growing rural- there have no social security protection and have
urban migration, gender discrimination and limited career and upward mobility opportunities.
poverty. Concomitantly, the growth in the informal
economy is also associated with tertiarization of the All in all, the informality of enterprises is
economy, in general, as manifested in the growth a complicated phenomenon and poses serious
of jobs in the services sector and a decline in formal policy challenges to the government, including
manufacturing jobs due to deindustrialization.5 its inability to raise tax revenue and regulate
them. Nonetheless, transitioning of the economy
towards formality can bring enormous benefits
The informal economy contains all by establishing the rule of law and the equality
those economic activities that are not of rights between entrepreneurs and workers.
Formalization would help enterprises to grow
reported or included in the National and achieve scale economies and efficiency.
Income Accounts. These include both Consequentially, the additional revenues
legal and illegal economic activities generated by expanding the tax net would create
fiscal space for lowering existing tax rates and
enable the government to invest more on social
Formal enterprises are required to obtain
sectors and rebuilding degraded institutional
start-up licenses, construction permits, property
capacity.
registration requirements, compliance with
labour and other laws, etc. They pay taxes and Within the above perspective, this paper
comply with government regulations thus bear provides strategic policy reform directions to
the brunt of high cost-of-doing business, as a formalize the informal economy.
result they lose price competitiveness vis-a-vis
informal enterprises. Consequently, customers
of formal enterprises shift toward either foreign
goods or goods produced by competing informal
enterprises. Under this situation, in order to
remain in the business, the formal enterprises also
indulge into illegal activities and start hiding a part
of their sales and production from tax and other
regulatory authorities. This is happening because
enforcement of laws is lax; consequently, benefits
from informality become greater than their costs.

Transitioning of the economy

towards formality can bring enormous
benefits by establishing the rule of law
and the equality of rights between
entrepreneurs and workers

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Rest of the paper is divided into seven sections. definition is based on what aspect a researcher
Section 2 defines various forms of informality in intends to study; for example, tax evasion, labour
Pakistan. Section 3 describes the stylized facts absorption, poverty, etc.
about the informal sector of Pakistan. Section 4 Three main components of the informal
identifies costs of formalization of the economy. economy that I define here are:-
Benefits from formalization are reported in
section 5. Possible strategic options to formalize ƒƒ A part of the informal economy comprises of ‘un-
the informal economy are discussed in section 6. registered and undocumented’ establishments
Strategic policy reform directions to formalize the with the tax and other authorities such as
informal economy are given in Section 7. Finally, household-based and small-scale firms. These
section 8 concludes the paper. enterprises are, however, normally registered
with Municipalities, contrary to the general
Defining Informality for Pakistan perception that they are not registered by any
There is no unanimity among experts on one government authority. It is pertinent to note
single definition of the informal economy. The that every shop in a town and even a push
informal economy contains all those economic cart has a registration number, issued by
activities that are not reported or included in the Town Municipality. Of course, not all of them
National Income Accounts.7 These include both are registered with the tax department. These
legal and illegal economic activities. While, all enterprises are engaged in the production
of the informal sector activities are not “black of goods and services with the key objective
market” operations; similarly, not all of the formal of generating employment and income but
sector activities are lawful. Gray areas do exist not necessarily with the deliberate intention
everywhere. Informal activities can be described of evading the tax payments or other legal/
as applying limited compliance with legal and administrative provisions. They typically
procedural requirements. Essentially, what operate at a low level of organization and
prevails in the informal sector is a middle ground with labour relations mostly based on
where certain registration prerequisites are met at periodic employment. Expenditures for
the municipality level, while tax obligations are production activity of household-based
often ignored and compliance with Labour laws is firms are often indistinguishable from the
not observed. This situation, however, is also found household expenditures. These enterprises
in formal activities due to weak fiscal discipline. as such cannot engage in transactions or
Evidently, in Pakistan, complete illegality is non- enter contracts with others nor incur financial
existent, but limited legality is abundant. The liabilities.8 They, however, provide unfair

Formal enterprises indulge into illegal activities? I have observed that such
firms are usually not competitive in the market mainly due to lack of ease-of-doing
business and high cost-of-doing business in the country. Thus, by evading taxes and
avoiding regulations, they improve their competitive position and survive

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Informal enterprises in Pakistan to it. Ironically, both domestic and foreign

hesitate to register and document corporate enterprises are engaged in this
practice. Foreign firms also hide a part of their
themselves mainly because of their plant capacity for the same purpose. They
‘trust deficit’ with tax and other repatriate a part of their profit earned in their
regulatory authorities, owing to lack of undocumented segment through their practice
known as ‘transfer pricing mechanism’.
resources to deal with them Through this mechanism foreign firms buy
imported inputs and parts from their parent
competition to law abiding formal firms. Such company at a very high price as compared
enterprises normally do not have capacity to to their actual international price with the
document with the tax department. connivance of customs staff. In this way they
transfer their hidden profits through legal
ƒƒ Another major part of the informal economy channels, which creates informality and a
is comprised of legal/formal enterprises heavy burden on the current account balance.
(manufacturers and service-providers) who
do not fully document themselves and hide ƒƒ Why formal enterprises indulge into illegal
a certain proportion of their economic activities? I have observed that such firms are
activities from the tax and other regulatory usually not competitive in the market mainly
authorities to evade taxes and social security due to lack of ease-of-doing business and high
contributions. It is observed that such cost-of-doing business in the country. Thus,
enterprises report only a part of their sales to by evading taxes and avoiding regulations,
tax authority; of course, with the connivance they improve their competitive position and
of tax functionaries. As such, their hidden survive.
part remains in the informal economy. Such
firms are often involved in under-invoicing of The size of the informal economy,
imports to evade import taxes. This, in turn, covering unregistered small &
helps them to under-report their installed
production capacity; consequently, for the household establishments, is estimated
entire life of the enterprise they evade income to be in the range of 30-50 percent of
tax, sales tax, excise duty, social security the formal economy’s GDP with about
contributions, pilfer utility bills, etc. All 60% of the total employed workforce
this is done with connivance of government
functionaries. Foreign remittances channeled working in the informal economy
through Hundi/Hawala system and under-
invoiced exports are largely used to finance ƒƒ Lastly, the informal economy is also comprised
under-invoicing of imports. One of my studies9 of firms engaged in black marketing, smuggling
estimates that only with China in the year of all sorts, other illegal activities, etc.11 All
2017 $4.7 billion worth of imports were under- such underground activities by their very
invoiced that were largely financed through nature evade taxes and other contributions.
Hundi/Hawala system and partly through Given the nature of such enterprises, perhaps,
under-invoicing of exports. Overtime (1972 they will always remain underground, lest
to 2013) my study10 estimates that reverse they are detected and eliminated.
capital flight to Pakistan was about $30 billion
that mostly went to the informal economy of Stylized Facts about Informality
Pakistan’s economy. Informal enterprises in Pakistan hesitate to
ƒƒ Interestingly, sales taxes are collected by register and document themselves mainly because
these firms from their customers on behalf of of their ‘trust deficit’ with tax and other regulatory
the tax authority but are not fully passed on authorities, owing to lack of resources to deal

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The quantum of withholding tax is An indicator to measure the level of formal

sharply rising, which is unprecedented employment is the percentage of employees
covered in the pension schemes. In Pakistan, only
because of un-documentation (non- 5.4% of the employed workers are affiliated with
filer) of the large proportion of the pension schemes, which implies that only a small
economy and invisible (Benami) number of workers are part of the formal economy.
Paradoxically, not all the formal enterprises give
business transactions pension coverage to all of their workers. Moreover,
only about 25% of residents maintain an account
with a formal banking institution, another
with them. Moreover, when tax rates are high
indicator of informality.19
and enforcement is lax, it induces informality in
the economy. Beside taxes, stringent regulations, It needs to be underscored that the quantum
especially, social security contributions also of withholding tax is sharply rising, which is
encourage informality. In particular, labour market unprecedented because of un-documentation
regulations12 increase labour cost and thus firms (non-filer) of the large proportion of the economy
opt to remain unregistered and undocumented. and invisible (Benami) business transactions.20
The required approval from too many authorities, This reveals the weak compliance with tax laws in
heavy paperwork for documentation, compliance Pakistan. In the tax year 2017, the number of return
with regulatory requirements and pervasive filers was 1.81 million, which came down to 1.552
corrupt practices are some other reasons for million in the tax year 2018. Thus, over 258,000
businesses to not register. individuals who were part of the FBR’s Active
Taxpayers List (ATL) did not pay taxes, perhaps
Besides regulations, a key reason for the
they have moved into the informal economy.21 In
persistent growth in the informal economy is
the latest drive on the basis of Assets Declaration
legally available Bearer finance schemes and
Scheme (2019), about 2.2 million individuals are
financial instruments such as Foreign Exchange
now registered with the tax authority, which still
Bearer Certificates, Prize Bond Schemes, Foreign
is significantly less than the potential tax payers.
Currency Accounts13 (where no questions are asked
about the source of foreign currency deposited), Different segments of the economy are
gross under-reporting of property values etc. incompatible in terms of their sophistication,
All these instruments are also the sources of competitiveness and productivity. The informal
informality because they are exempt from the economy is highly uncompetitive and pushes the
obligations and reporting requirements. overall economy behind low-productivity barrier.
For instance, informal establishments find it
Given the varied nature, it is difficult to
difficult to obtain credit from domestic financial
measure the size of the informal economy with
institutions, face a greater intensity of corruption
precision. Estimates of the informal economy are
and bureaucratic requirements. They are unable
available from published studies that are only
to produce products with the quality demanded by
indicative of the situation. Nevertheless, these
high income consumers. Thus, with the informal
estimates portray an alarming situation, because
economy estimated to be nearly as large as the
they show that the informal economy is not only
formal economy, the country’s ability to move
large but is growing.
forward is severely hampered.
The size of the informal economy, covering
From the informal activities, the country
unregistered small & household establishments
is losing on five counts: (i) the loss of growth,
is estimated to be in the range of 30-50 percent of
informal enterprises prefer to remain small
the formal economy’s GDP14 & 15 with about 60%
because otherwise they will be detected and
of the total employed workforce working in the
will have to abide by many laws and regulations
informal economy.16 Another study17 estimated the
to operate; (ii) the loss of tax revenue due to tax
size of the informal economy to be about 90% of
evasion by such informal enterprises; (iii) creation
the formal economy using the Household Income-
of unhealthy competition for formal enterprises
Expenditure Survey data and adjusted it by the
discrepancy to official GDP using present author’s
estimates18 of trade mis-invoicing. This study thus
covers all segments of the informal economy, i.e., Gross under-reporting of property
both unregistered-undocumented establishments values, negligible tax collection of
and registered-undocumented establishments.
It can be inferred from these estimates that over agriculture income, and no reporting
40% of registered firms hide their sales and other or under-reporting of income by
economic activities from tax and other regulatory businesses, add to the undocumented
authorities.
economy

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who become at disadvantage when they have to

pay taxes and other charges; (iv) production of low A large informal sector usually
quality and low value-added products because reflects substantial government
informal enterprises can not avail opportunities revenue losses as a result of tax evasion.
through official channels for skill development,
innovation, and credit; and (v) smallness does
This would likely lead to a lower level
not allow informal enterprises to join the global and quality of social services in the
supply and value chains and hence are not directly country
engaged in international trade activities.
Gross under-reporting of property values,
negligible tax collection of agriculture income where they transact with each other and cash
and no reporting or under-reporting of income remains the only instrument of their transactions.
by businesses, add to the undocumented Critics consider, the informal economy as a
economy. The informal economy is causing un- major problem restricting economic growth and
planned demand pressures on public services, development. This is because they are largely
inefficient allocation of resources, and distortion comprised of small enterprises producing low value-
of the incentive structure; thus they are adversely added goods. Employees are paid lower wages
affecting the growth trajectory of the economy. and are not formally trained. They are, however,

Informality is a structural weakness that is trained on-the-job through apprenticeship (Ustad-

growing over the time as public institutions have Shagird) system. Informal enterprises generally
become weaker. Past governments have attempted manage themselves less efficiently than their
to eradicate this problem through largely counterparts in the formal sector. The informal
administrative measures by forcing formal firms to sector is a limitation to prospects of the national
do business only with registered firms. At present, economy as the firms evade taxes, employees are
real estate, manufacturing, trade and other not covered in social security schemes and workers
services are all having large informal segments are not protected through the enforcement of
Labour Law. Nevertheless, given the overall level
of socio-economic development, the proponents
Informal entrepreneurs are mostly view them as the backbone of the economy and as
a first step for economic development.
uneducated and unproductive,
producing low-quality products and Informal entrepreneurs are mostly uneducated
and unproductive, producing low-quality products
add negligible value to products they and add negligible value to products they produce.
produce Within this perspective, economic development

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comes about when formal establishments expand Growing informality undermines

as the economy grows, to eventually displace the sustainability of businesses and
informal establishments.22
diminishes opportunities to create
Low productivity in the informal sector
enterprises is mainly due to low level of the
decent jobs and is therefore harmful
human capital of the entrepreneurs who run to the interests of both employers and
them; consequently, the education level of their workers
employed workers is also low. Other interesting
facts are that it is not the government regulations
that keep informal establishments behind, it is increasing the tax rate might have a less restraining
their low productivity, and the fact that informal effect on growth or inflation, due to excessive tax
enterprise rarely attempts to graduate to formal evasion by the informal enterprises.29
enterprise because they prefer to subsist to survive
in an economic space of their own choice.23 Furthermore, a larger informal sector tends
Besides, when operating informally, firms are to impose social costs. This is because, informal
likely to maintain small-scale operations in workers normally operate in a poor working
order to decrease the probability of regulatory conditions receiving lower pay and social
authorities’ detection.24 security protection.30 This is especially true
when government’s enforcements of laws and
Cost of Informality to the Economy regulations is lax.
A large informal sector usually reflects
substantial government revenue losses as a result Benefits of Formalization
of tax evasion. This would likely lead to a lower Growing informality undermines the
level and quality of social services in the country.25 sustainability of businesses and diminishes
Such a scenario usually induce government to opportunities to create decent jobs and is therefore
increase the tax burden on the formal sector to harmful to the interests of both employers
compensate for tax losses. Poor public services and and workers. In this context, the benefits of
an excessive tax burden irritate formal businesses formalization are to: (i) increase the welfare of
and decrease their trust in public institutions, workers and opportunities for decent jobs; (ii)
as they see little benefit to paying taxes. This reduce unfair competition between formal and
discourages informal enterprises to join the formal
informal enterprises arising from tax or regulatory
sector, leading to a vicious cycle of expanding
the informal sector and low provision of social arbitrage; and (iii) expand tax revenues that can
services.26 Highlighting the negative economic be used to support social safety nets and social
impact of informality a study27 empirically shows works.
that economic growth is lower in countries with a The large informal economy, whereas reduces
larger informal sector because informality restricts poverty, is a binding constraint on economic
growth of industries. Studies also highlight the growth because it retards scale economies. Thus,
negative impact of an expanding informal sector strengthening the business climate through ease-
on productivity as they lack economies-of-scale of-doing business and reduction in cost-of-doing
by their very design. In this context, a World Bank business can contribute to reduce informality and
study28 examines productivity differences between raise inclusiveness.
formal and informal Turkish businesses and finds
that in manufacturing, the productivity for formal The potential positive effects from
firms is 50% higher than for informal ones. formalization are clear, both for workers and
for the economy itself. For enterprises, it can
Lack of access to banking credit, due
to insufficient collateral, tends to impede lead to  higher profits, better access to improved
expansion of informal businesses. In addition, technology, reduced taxes and less corruption.
a larger informal sector renders monetary policy For workers, it may lead to  improved access to
ineffective as informal firms are less connected to decent work conditions through the enforcement
the financial system. This is also true regarding the of Labour Laws and access to social security
fiscal side, i.e., decreasing the tax rate might have protection.
a less stimulatory effect on economic growth, and To obtain benefits from formalization, the
government needs to  avoid enforcement of strict
While informality is rejected for anti-informality legal frameworks, formalization
campaign purely on the basis of enforcement that
evading taxes. Formalization is not lacks a supportive regulatory framework is bound
without pain, it can have serious to generate unemployment and low growth.
political and social ramifications, if As such, the government needs to take into
not managed properly consideration all likely hurdles, implications and

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Creating a single authority would The intended benefit of this policy would be to
further facilitate the dissemination reduce the burden of bureaucracy and reduce
administrative costs.
of information, avoid overlapping
and contradictory regulations and Strategic Policy Reform Directions for
streamline administrative procedures Formalization of Informal Economy
and oversight efforts Given the heterogeneous nature of informal
activities, the strategic policy reform directions
that Pakistan needs to take to formalize its informal
reactions of the system and design tailor-made economy may include the following:
strategies for formalization that are in line with the Simplification of Start-up Procedures.
local context. With the aim to foster competitiveness for
While informality is rejected for evading stimulating industrial growth, there is a need
taxes. Formalization is not without pain, it can to streamline administrative procedures and
have serious political and social ramifications improve the conditions for start-up. Specifically,
if not managed properly. Therefore, structural the procedures involved should make obtaining
policies designed to promote formality should of business operation licenses from municipality
be implemented with great care, aimed at registrar and other regulatory bodies simple and
encouraging formalization rather than explicitly fast. Complicated and lengthy procedures for
discouraging informal activity. This is because, obtaining approvals create bureaucratic hurdles.
informal firms are skeptical about policies that It is therefore important to remove hurdles by
would tax, regulate or impose additional costs simplifying procedures through: (i) making
on them because that would drive them out of adjustments in the laws that remove complications
business and further increase poverty. and ensure government functionaries facilitate
approvals, (ii) introduction of one-stop operation
Strategic Options for Formalization for receiving permits by streamlining process;
A first possible strategic option is to design and (iii) engaging the private sector associations
in debates regarding adjustments to the laws
a provisional regulatory system different from
to make informed decisions. Simplification of
the existing one that is being applied on formal
the regulatory environment will greatly help to
enterprises. This should involve the adoption of
formalize undocumented sectors, which in turn
a preferential regime at least for short-term (1-2
will pay huge dividends in the form of revenues,
years) whereby informal enterprises voluntarily level playing field between enterprises, greater
register themselves. Once they are registered capacity to promote the efficient economy, the
bring them in the tax net, then gradually tax them rule of law, and guarantees of property rights and
starting with lower rates and ensuring that taxes contract enforcement.
collected from them are used for social welfare
schemes in their locality and community and Establishing a Business in a Single Day.
are not misappropriated. In the first few years Introduce a new platform ‘Establishing Business in
don’t scrutinize small informal enterprises by a Single Day’, managed by the city municipalities.
initiating audit and inquiries. Such an approach The aim of this platform would be to streamline
may, however, be opposed due to its adverse the business start-up processes to encourage
fiscal implications in the short-run. A distinction would be informal businesses to formalize. Firms
allowed by the law even temporarily would not presently operating in the informal sector should
stem tax evasion and the system would be misused be encouraged to modify their legal status into
sole proprietorship or limited liability companies.
as before.
Registration through this platform should require
A second strategic option is the adaptation of simply filling out a digital form rather than
formalization prerequisites to bring them closer lengthy and cumbersome procedures, it should be
to the capabilities of informal enterprises. That is, made free of cost. Once registered, the company
by simplifying bureaucratic procedures to contain should automatically obtain a tax identification
access barriers to formality. This approach would number and start its operations. The success of
minimize the cost of formalization, especially for
smaller enterprises. Creating a single authority A basic step in the formalization
would further facilitate the dissemination of
information, avoid overlapping and contradictory of informal enterprises is ensuring
regulations and streamline administrative documentation with the municipality
procedures and oversight efforts. A single Business registrar that should then register the
ID Number should be introduced, which would firm with the tax department
be shared among different government agencies.

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The government needs to promote taxes and contributions.31 Building trust between
the cashless economy by introducing FBR and the taxpayer is the main challenge. This
should be built through automation and using
another platform ‘Digital Pakistan’ Artificial Intelligence (AI), minimizing contact
to bring businesses into the formal between tax staff and taxpayer, and by promoting
sector a voluntary compliance. Government should also
establish tax filing facilitation centers for those
informal enterprises who cannot use e-filing and
such a platform would depend on the facilitation e-payment systems.
system developed by the municipality managed by
qualified persons. Expanding the Tax Net. Technology is fast
introducing a change. It is enabling the entry of
Streamline Taxation. A basic step in the informal enterprises into the formal economy.
formalization of informal enterprises is ensuring The government needs to promote the cashless
documentation with the municipality registrar economy by introducing another platform ‘Digital
that should then register the firm with the tax Pakistan’ to bring businesses into the formal
department. Most of these enterprises consider sector. The government needs to make remaining
direct registration with the tax department as the in the informal economy unattractive and difficult
main hurdle to formalize because tax registration so that informal enterprises do not operate on cash
and administration is complex and costly. Then, basis. Introduction of the value-added tax (VAT) at
they do not see any clear benefit in return. some stage in the future would expand the formal
Therefore, the government needs to simplify sector, as a result, it would create a repository of
tax procedures and reduce the cost-of-doing data for effective policy making.
business for enterprises when working formally.
The simplified tax regime should exempt all small
and home-based enterprises from the obligation Labour inspection fines should
to produce detailed profit and loss statements, be substituted with training, thus
containing inventories, amortization records, etc. encouraging good labor practices
Exempt them from making monthly/quarterly
provisional tax payments to improve their cash
Access to Credit Instruments. Access to
flow as they usually work on the credit basis—
credit instruments enhances competitiveness and
some of them receive payments after crop harvest.
thereby the ability to comply with regulations.
The system should allow both maintaining of
Likewise, financial services enable formal
accounting records in electronic format and
enterprises to survive during the recession without
keeping their own income and expenditure books.
falling back into informality. Informal enterprises
The FBR portal should offer registered firms a
usually do not open bank account registered in
software free of cost that allows them to record their
their name, as they have difficulties in complying
transactions, obtain financial statements, and
with requirements related to the minimum number
generate tax declarations automatically. Ensure
of years of operation, maintaining of minimum
simple and single e-filing and e-payment of all
deposit in the bank account, cash-flow statements,

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It is vital to capitalize on the growing in Pakistan, the issue of effective transfer

potential of the informal sector for pricing regulation becomes more pressing. Given
the limited expertise and resources of regulatory
realizing sustained stimulation of agencies in the field of transfer pricing, it becomes
economic growth, giving way for increasingly important to understand as to what
increased government spending on extent international investment agreements
infrastructures development and higher can address this issue through, for example,
increased transparency, information sharing, co-
quality social welfare programs operation and technical assistance provisions,
thereby ensuring the country derives full benefits
from foreign investment without exposure to a
etc. Therefore, entrepreneurs use their personal potentially harmful transfer pricing practice.
accounts to manage their business finances. For Inculcating the Culture of Compliance for
the opening of accounts, the banks should only Regulations. It should be made mandatory that
require firms’ operating license. This would reduce only registered and tax-compliant enterprises
the burden of financial formalization, an incentive would be eligible to join industry associations
to formalize business. who facilitate access to foreign markets, credit
Substitution of labour Inspection Fines and training. The government should overcome
with Training. Panic created by labour inspectors informality challenge by educating enterprises
prevents many informal enterprises from through awareness campaigns using media and
formalizing their businesses, which in turn raises conducting field visits. Equally important would
the level of vulnerability for labour working in be strong communication drive and interaction
the informal sector. A factor that undoubtedly with the public about new formalization regime,
contributes to this situation is the lack of knowledge this will restore the government’s credibility and
about regulations. To cope with this situation, the trustworthiness.
government needs to increase compliance with Tax Amnesty Scheme for more Tax
Labour Laws through better information, training Compliance and Documentation. Pakistan
and assistance. labour inspection fines should be launched a tax amnesty scheme (asset declaration
substituted with training, thus encouraging good scheme) in May 2019. In addition to the above
labour practices. Such a program would reduce the policy reform directions, this scheme is likely to
risk for formalized enterprises to incur costs due to document the informal economy.
their unfamiliarity with Labour Regulations.
Controlling the Flight of Capital. To the Concluding Remarks
extent, formal sector firms indulge in capital Informality has undeniably undesirable
flight to later finance reverse capital flight can implications for the economy and society. For
be controlled once under-invoicing of imports is enterprises, it is important that the transformation
controlled by the customs department. It’s not to formality makes them a good business sense.
very difficult, a strong will is required to control For Pakistan, it is vital to capitalize on the
this menace. Traders should be asked to only potential of the informal sector for realizing
submit an official invoice obtained from foreign sustained stimulation of economic growth, giving
country’s customs department. This would control way for increased government spending on
the on-going import under-invoicing. Also allow infrastructures development and higher quality
customs department to purchase the suspected social welfare programs. Conscientious spending
under-invoiced imported goods from importers by the government, in turn, would create a sense
at the customs point at 2 percent additional of trust, for tax collected will ultimately be utilized
value than the import bill presented to customs for the welfare of tax payees, thereby, stimulating
department, an importer who will face losses in
this way would refrain from under-invoicing in the
future. To get a complete knowledge of the firms The government should not simply
who indulged in under-invoicing of imports in the push small-scale informal enterprises
past, there is a need to conduct a technical audit
of all establishments to determine actual level of
into the formal economy for the sake
installed capacity. of collecting taxes from them, the aim
Transfer Pricing Control. Foreign firms use of the policy should be to make them
a mechanism called ‘internal transfer price’ to more productive and competitive via
take advantage of tax differences across countries. induction of modern technology and
Transfer pricing methods directly affect the
amount of profit reported, which in turn affects the
management practices as well as the
tax revenues. As foreign investors’ operations are development of skill proficiency

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the business sentiments for further growth and to formalize firms, and rights and obligations of
documentation of the economy. Therefore, the employers, they must be fast trained. The staff
government needs to give top priority to the must change its mindset and become facilitators
resolution of informality issues. A comprehensive of informal firms rather than mere administrators
approach must be adopted and implemented to of regulations. Alternatively, a special department
reduce informality in the economy. The government in each municipality, dealing specifically with
needs to adopt a multi-prong approach including informal enterprises, needs to be established with
legislative, governmental and judicial reforms. qualified staff.
One policy should not be used to regulate or
improve the conditions of heterogeneous informal One of the main reasons for informality is lack
enterprises, carrying out different activities. The of conducive business environment. Therefore, the
government should not simply push small-scale government needs to give top priority to improve
informal enterprises into the formal economy ease-of-doing business and reduce cost-of-doing
for the sake of collecting taxes from them, the business especially for informal enterprises. This
aim of the policy should be to make them more should be the core of the strategy to formalize
productive and competitive via induction of the informal economy and raising inclusiveness.
modern technology and management practices as Otherwise, informal enterprises would opt to
well as the development of skill proficiency. Start a remain in the informal economy where they
technical audit of installed capacity of established would remain facing the brunt of corruption
formal companies to identify hidden part of their and bureaucratic requirements and thus would
production. continually dampen the growth prospects.
To begin with, policies assisting informal Let me conclude the paper with a cautionary
enterprises to formalize should be given a note. An abrupt or forced shift from the informal to
legal cover. Registration procedures should be the formal sector can lead to too many job losses.
streamlined to facilitate small enterprises. This This is more so because the informal sector is the
would be achieved through promotional and major source of job creation for low skilled workers
training efforts. Programs including good labour and helps in alleviation of poverty. Therefore,
practices and social security protection education government policies should remain supportive
should be given a wider coverage. At the same time, of such activities even after their registration.
the government needs to address the drawbacks in Household firms that are unregistered will
the existing tax system. Operational issues, such perhaps remain unregistered forever unless they
as those related to ease of filing and refund, need voluntarily come forward or graduate to a bigger
to be resolved on priority basis. size and become visible to authorities. Till they
Municipal staff assisting the informal remain invisible, authorities should not worry
enterprises is not well-versed with procedures much about them.

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15. Most of the studies show a rising trend in the size of the formal economy
Dr Zafar Mahmood is Professor of Economics since 1992. One of the indicators of the growth of the informal economy is fall
in the tax-to-GDP ratio. It may be noted that the tax-to-GDP ratio was 13.8%
and Head of Research at School of Social in the 1980s, which came down slightly to 13.4% in the 1990s but sharply
Sciences and Humanities (S3H), National decreased to 10.3% in the 2000s and slightly increased to 10.7% in the 2010s
(see, GoP, Ibid). These estimates are quite high for the average of South
University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Asia, which is about 35% [See, IMF (2017) “Pakistan: Selected Issues”. Inter-
Islamabad. Email: [email protected] national Monetary Fund Country Report No. 17/213, July, Washington, D.C.
Available at: file:///G:/Green/Green% 204/IMF%20 May.pdf].

16. Self-employed are about 68% of total labor force in Pakistan, a majority of the
Notes
self-employed owns unregistered establishments. [See, Qasim, A.W. (2011)
1. Like many other countries, informality in the economy is a long living reality in “Relationship between Inflation and Tax Evasion: A Case Study of Pakistan”.
Pakistan. The informal sector is dominated by labor-intensive cottage man- MPhil Thesis, Department of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islam-
ufacturing industries, small commerce, and neighborhood services. They do abad. Khan, A. and S. Khalil (2017) The Real Size of Underground Economy:
not directly engage in international trade. A Case of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, 27(1): 89-100].

2. The documented economy is falling whereas undocumented economy is 17. See, Kemal, M.A. and A.W. Qasim (2012) Precise Estimates of the Infor-
thriving in Pakistan. [see, “Pakistan Economic Survey”. Ministry of Finance, mal Economy. Available at: http://pide.org.pk/psde/pdf/AGM28/M%20Ali%20
Government of Pakistan (various issues)]. Kemal%20and%20Ahmed%20 Waqar%20Qasim.pdf.

3. Under-employment phenomenon is primarily linked to the informal economy, 18. See, Mahmood (2013, Ibid).
where the bulk of low skilled workers are employed including unpaid-family
19. See, IMF (2017, Ibid).
workers and self-employed workers, they often work for less than eight hours.
The Heritage Foundation’s Economic Freedom Index (2019) shows that a 20. Within total direct tax revenue, 41% comes from various withholding taxes,
large proportion of the workforce employed in the informal economy of Paki- which according to FBR are characterized by their adjustable and presump-
stan is under-employed (Available at: https://www.heritage.org/index/). tive (final) nature.
4. After denationalization and privatization policies in the late 1970s, the main 21. Available at: https://www.fbr.gov.pk/.
responsibility to create jobs was assumed by the private sector. The new en-
trants to the labor market, especially, with no or little education find no other 22. See, Kemal, A.R. and Z. Mahmood (1993) “Labour Absorption in the Informal
option but to work informally. Consequently, the informal sector has become Sector and Economic Growth in Pakistan”. Informal Sector Study No. 2. Frie-
the major labor absorber. drich Ebert Stiftung, Pakistan Office, Islamabad.

5. See, Mahmood, Z. (2019) “Reindustrializing Pakistan through CPEC-SEZs”. 23. See, Kemal and Mahmood (1993, Ibid).
Presented at the First International Conference of the China-Pakistan Eco- 24. See, Pratap, S. and E. Quintin (2006) “The Informal Sector in Developing
nomic Corridor, held on September 27-28, 2019 on the Campus of South Countries”. Research Paper 2006/13, World Institute for Development Eco-
China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China. nomics Research, United Nations University, Helsinki.
6. Most of the entrepreneurs have established themselves in the informal econ- 25. See, Schneider, F. and D.H. Enste (2000) Shadow Economies: Size, Causes
omy by virtue of their survival rather than improvement-driven opportunity. and Consequences. Journal of Economic Literature, 78: 299-321.
7. Note: the current global debate on the shadow or informal economy is taking 26. See, Torgler, B., and F. Schneider (2007) “Shadow Economy, Tax Morale,
place in the context of terror financing that is thought to be hidden there. Governance and Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis”. IZA Discussion Pa-
8. See, ICLS (1993) Resolution adopted by the 15th International Conference of pers, 2563. Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit Institute for the Study of
Labor Statisticians, 19-28, January. Labor, Bonn, Germany.

9. See, Mahmood (2019, Ibid). 27. See, Loayaza, N.V. (1996) “The Economics of the Informal Sector: A Simple
Model and Some Empirical Evidence from Latin America.” Carnegie-Roches-
10. See, Mahmood, Z. (2013) Reverse Capital Flight to Pakistan: Analysis of Ev- ter Conference Series on Public Policy 45:129-162.
idence. The Pakistan Development Review, 52(1): 1-16.
28. See, World Bank (2010) “Turkey: Country Economic Memorandum: Informal-
11. Illegal economic activities also include; transfer of money through Hundi/ ity-Causes, Consequences, and Policies”. Report No. 48523, Washington,
Hawala, hidden rentals and barter business, narcotic/forbidden commodity D.C.: The World Bank.
trade, gambling, etc.
29. See, Eilat, Y. and C. Zinnes (2002) “The Evolution of the Shadow Economy in
12. Labor market regulations include: minimum working age, safety regulations, Transition Countries: Consequences for Economic Growth and Donor Assis-
regulation on number of hours worked and minimum wage cause extra bur- tance.” CAER II Discussion Paper No. 83, Harvard Institute for International
den on formal firms for hiring, which results into fewer job opportunities. Sub- Development.
sequent unemployment together with increased taxation, high inflation, and
absence of social security benefits encourage informality of economic agent. 30. See, ILO (2002) “Decent Work and the Informal Economy”. Report VI, In-
ternational Labour Conference, 90th Session, Geneva: International Labour
13. Of course, not all of Foreign Currency Accounts are based on undocumented Organization.
money; e.g., non-resident Pakistanis are allowed to deposit their remittances
either in rupee account or foreign currency account, which is legitimate. 31. Single tax portal for both federal and provincial taxes should be established
to avoid the problem of double taxation, and for convenience.
14. Most of the studies used ‘the currency demand approach’ to measure the size
of the informal economy. This approach is based on cash-based transactions
taking place in the country. [See, Ahmed, A.M. (2009) Underground Economy
in Pakistan: How Credible Are Estimates? NUST Journal of Business and
Economics, 2(1), 1–9. Arby, M.F., M.J. Malik and M.N. Hanif (2010) “The Size
of Informal Economy in Pakistan”. SBP Working Paper Series, 33, Karachi:
State Bank of Pakistan].

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POLITICAL
GOVERNANCE
AND
HYBRID WAR

Imtiaz Gul

Abstract
This paper postulates that bad governance should be viewed as a potential element of a hybrid war.
The latter of course is a new approach to inflict harm on the enemy. It is visible in many manifestations
in Pakistan. Yet, regardless of whether deployed by the enemy as an element of a hybrid war or not,
the state will always remain vulnerable to external influences if the governance and service delivery
remains tardy and deficient. In order to pre-empt possible exploitation of these conditions by the
enemy, corrective measures are unavoidable. This is the only way to prevent the enemy from taking
advantage of bad governance and thus clubbing it with other elements of the hybrid war.
Keywords: Governance, Hybrid War, Conflicts, Separatist Movement

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Almost all of the demands and resolutions presented in

FATF against Pakistan were driven by India

I
s hybrid war a reality of geo-politics, or a Arabian Sea, as well other major towns of the
deflective pretext to cover up one’s own Sindh province represent a dismal picture of poor
failures, or a combination of both? The theory governance.
of hybrid war can be viewed from two angles Secondly, has the revocation of IOJK’s special
both as a blessing or bane; if you take it as status on August 5 (2019) emerged as a new
an external intervention that triggers you into element of the hybrid war that India has been
corrective measures, it indeed is a blessing. But if using against Pakistan? The incessant firing from
you don’t admit the underlying causes and only across the Line of Control (LoC) for several years
take it as an imposed tool of destabilization, then and the latest tensions rooted in IOJK have led
you are mostly consumed by reactive measures to emotional responses in Pakistan. The issue
– often cast in a narrative of victimhood as well has been consuming energy and attention of all
as attempts to deflect attention without really and sundry, and has distracted the government
focusing on removing or at least acknowledging from its pressing economic reform and financial
the causes.1 stabilization agenda.
Before we try to make sense of what hybrid Thirdly, is the international watchdog, the
warfare is and whether exploitation of governance Financial Action Task Force (FATF), yet another
failures also belongs to it, a few questions will not tool of the hybrid warfare? Most of the conditions
be out of place to understand if Pakistan, too, is it placed on Pakistan in the June 2018 Action
up against the hydra of a hybrid warfare, including Plan centered on terrorist financing and money-
the exploitation of bad governance by external laundering. Also, almost all of the demands and
forces. resolutions presented against Pakistan were driven
by India. It remains seized with what it calls the
The revocation of IOJK’s special “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan, a reference
status on August 5th (2019) emerged to various non-state actors including Jaishe
Mohammad (JeM) and Jamaatud Dawa (JuD).
as a new element of the hybrid war
Although Pakistan has tightened the noose
that India has been using against around these groups since 2017, initiated cases
Pakistan against their leaders, frozen their bank accounts
Firstly, is the simmering spat between and taken over control of their key facilities, India
the provincial government and the Municipal as a co-chair of FATF’s Asia Pacific Group (APG),
Corporation over the heaps of garbage in Karachi, has been manipulating the drive against Pakistan
the capital of the southernmost Sindh province, with the support of key countries such as the US,
and the resultant governance dysfunction in the
largest of Pakistani cities the latest addition to By default, poor governance within
the broad matrix of hybrid war? The province as a
whole received 2.5 trillion rupees in development the financial sector and wanting
funds between 2009-2018 but Karachi, the enforcement of law became a source of
country’s doorway for external trade through the exploitation by external factors

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France, UK and Germany, which led to the June The post-Cold War new technologies
2018 “grey-listing” of Pakistan.
and shifting alliances have failed
The financial sector, too, has been plagued by
loopholes, which criminals, vested interests and
to diffuse the tensions created by
terrorists exploited to the hilt, and hence the FATF history
conditions. By default, poor governance within
the financial sector and wanting enforcement of state. The elements of ambiguity”, non-linearity,
law became a source of exploitation by external surprise, cognitive skills of warfare and secrecy
factors. normally help achieve the desired objectives
without fear of retaliation.2
The hybrid warfare primarily
NATO defines it “as a wide range of overt
targets disgruntled local and covert military, paramilitary, and civilian
populations, particularly the socio- measures […] employed in a highly integrated
economic inequities of the system design”.3 It is a war that is “waged everywhere but
and dysfunctionality of service nowhere to be seen, by anyone at once with all
or some tools of state power with a synchronized
infrastructures action to influence societal weakening or collapse
in a targeted country.
What is Hybrid Warfare?
The idea of a hybrid war seems to spring from
Defining hybrid warfare in a world polarized conflicting interests of states such as the US, China,
by geo-political considerations and geo-economic India, Pakistan and Russia. Their divergent views
interests is probably as hard as developing a and mutual threat perceptions, provide at least the
consensus on what constitutes “terrorism.” theoretical context to strategies and tactics that
Hybrid war in present times is synonymous with are meanwhile called the tools of hybrid war i.e.
multi-dimensional, non-conventional measures – moves that may inflict harm on the enemy state,
economic squeeze through international fora such without leaving any footprint of the mastermind,
as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), cyber whereby each one of these powers wants to enforce
warfare, exploitation of the sense of deprivations a rebalance (of its choice) onto the region.4
among sub-nationalist ethnic groups – inflict
harm on the target state without engaging in open The dynamics of evolving warfare have not
armed hostilities. The hybrid warfare primarily only kept the specter of decades old instability alive
targets disgruntled local populations, particularly in South Asia but also entrapped Afghanistan-
the socio- economic inequities of the system Pakistan-India in an unending vicious cycle of
and dysfunctionality of service infrastructures. animosity and brinkmanship.
This way the hybrid warfare exploits systemic “The post-Cold War new technologies and
weaknesses of the political economy – dated shifting alliances have failed to diffuse the tensions
governance systems that fail to meet increasing created by history”, rather they have further added
service delivery demands. more dangerous twists such as terrorism. Indeed,
Hybrid war is an emerging notion in new alliances and rivalries coloured by hybrid
international war and conflict studies and refers to warfare have reduced the prospect of already
the use of non-conventional methods in order to distant economic prosperity in South Asia.5
disrupt an opponent’s actions and undermine its
political-economic interests without engaging in
open hostilities. The term also implies infiltration
of proxies into government, military and security
systems and disruption through social media, fake
news and engineered alternate narratives with the
aim to manipulate opinions, perceptions and buy
influence in an adversary country.
In hybrid warfare, a state usually tries to use
“all instruments of power at its command to target
perceived specific vulnerabilities of the enemy

New alliances and rivalries coloured

by hybrid warfare have reduced the
prospect of already distant economic
prosperity in South Asia

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Hybrid Warfare essentially means exploiting socio-political vulnerabilities of the

target state through non-conventional means in a cost- effective, clandestine but
deniable way without launching physical military assault

Weeks of angry and violent protests in Hong water and power shortages, obsolete leaking gas
Kong are another case in point. Unlike the majority and water distribution systems, discontent over
of Hong Kong residents, a minority held the city garbage disposal, cratered roads and dysfunctional
state hostage, paralysing parts of it – including public health system are just a few manifestations
the airport – for weeks. The demonstrations of public services. All this happened under the
cost the government billions of dollars in three rule of the meanwhile fragmented MQM in the last
months, following closure of the airport as well as three decades. The party exercised absolute control
disruption in businesses. In this particular case, over the city of Karachi and ran it like a personal
a law-fare was used to mobilise anti-government fiefdom, as an ATM for its leaders. Its extortionist
protests; point of contention was a new law that rule hollowed it out from within instead of
paved way for extradition of suspects of crime or developing it into a modern prosperous city. This
terror to mainland China. also filters through revelations made by several
The Hong Kong government eventually caved MQM activists and leaders to Joint Interrogation
in to demands and announced on September 4 to Teams (JITs)8.
withdraw the extradition law. Pakistan is certainly facing various
Chinese officials denounced the protests as a manifestations of a hybrid warfare. Generally,
violent attempt for “a colour revolution” in direct the notion of an imposed hybrid war is taken as
reference to changes through protests in the Baltic synonymous to an India-led concerted multi-
states of Ukraine and Georgia.6 dimensional subversive and destabilisation
campaign inside and outside Pakistan. Continued
One of the most striking examples of hybrid India opposition to Pakistan at all international
warfare in action has been Russia’s activities in forums, including the United Nations and the
Crimea and the Donbas region of Ukraine. NATO Financial Action Task Force (FATF) are a case in
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg described point.
Russia’s actions as: “[using] proxy soldiers,
unmarked Special Forces, intimidation and On August 23, for instance, the entire Indian
propaganda, all to lay a thick fog of confusion; to electronic media began screaming that the Asia
obscure its true purpose in Ukraine; and to attempt Pacific Group (APG), a regional arm of FATF, had
deniability.” 7 placed Pakistan on the organization’s blacklist.
This was nothing less than a motivated, slanderous
Moscow, on the other hand, accused the US campaign based possibly on a leak by Indian
and other NATO members of using “proxies” to officials attending the APG meeting in Paris. In
damage the Russian interests in these states. the first place, APG has no mandate to decide on
the listing. The decision on the grey or blacklisting
One of the most striking examples rests with the FATF Plenary (which was due in
of hybrid warfare in action has been October 2019), and not by the APG. Secondly,
even if APG recommended blacklisting, it had
Russia’s activities in Crimea and the not issued its official communique on the latest
Donbas region of Ukraine meeting. Thirdly, the official press release said it
had accepted the Pakistani report for review.
Pakistan’s Context The exclusion of Pakistani sportsmen or
In Pakistan’s context, violent movements artists from events in India, or the Indian refusal to
by Baloch separatist groups and the Pashtoon attend similar events in Pakistan are all extensions
Tahaffuz Movement (PTM) (2018/19) in Khyber of this Indian campaign to isolate or paint
Pakthunkhwa could qualify as components of
a hybrid warfare. They are all, among others,
also rooted in bad governance and neglect of the The exclusion of Pakistani
common man. This essentially means exploiting sportsmen or artists from events in
socio-political vulnerabilities of the target state India, or the Indian refusal to attend
through non-conventional means in a cost-
effective, clandestine but deniable way without similar events in Pakistan are all
launching physical military assault. extensions of this Indian campaign to
Who to assign the responsibility for isolate or paint Pakistan negatively
deterioration in public service delivery? Riots over wherever possible

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Hybrid war can be both a blessing or

a bane but for Pakistan it represents an
opportunity to correct historical mistakes,
and address systemic shortcomings that
provide the enemy with the exploitative
or manipulative tools

Pakistan negatively wherever possible. Officials

in Islamabad, nevertheless believe such tactics
cannot inflict harm on Pakistan. They point to the
country’s armed forces and the nuclear arsenal Regionally, too, this war may further intensify
as the ultimate defence against India. The armed and serve as a big psychological barrier to the
forces no doubt constitute the bulwark against vision and plans of regional connectivity through
external aggression but there is a caveat to it; trade and energy projects. Yet, there is a lesson
perceptions of a country in the world today are tied to learn from China; it has progressed at an
more to its economic outlook than to the physical astronomical pace in the last four decades, despite
security infrastructure. challenges that could be called instruments of a
hybrid warfare; the continued contentious issue of
Pakistan’s Challenge Taiwan, which China claims but is honored by the
Hybrid war can be both a blessing or a bane United States as an independent country.
but for Pakistan it represents an opportunity to China responded to externally-driven
correct historical mistakes, and address systemic hybrid warfare in its north-western territories
shortcomings that provide the enemy with the i.e. Tibet and Xinjiang autonomous regions
exploitative or manipulative tools. – with good governance and exceptional
Former Federally Administered Tribal Areas service delivery. Despite separatist opposition
(FATA) is another case in point. For near 70 years movements – disproportionately magnified by
it remained neglected. PTM emerged as a tool of the western media, Beijing exclusively focused on
hybrid war to take advantage of various latent infrastructure development and peoples’ welfare.
grievances resulted not only from successive Beijing views entities such as East Turkestan
military operations but also due to absence of Movement (ETIM), which publicly vows to hurt
governance and rule of law. Chinese interests, as terrorist organizations and
Baloch nationalists also became instruments instruments of internal destabilization. Laddakh,
of a proxy war, raised on weaknesses of governance the western edge of the greater Tibetan region under
and short-sighted political approaches adopted the control of India, represents another headache
by the Center. This provided the enemy – if one for Beijing; both India and the US-led West adore
were to assume there is an external force behind The Dalai Lama, the Buddhists spiritual leader,
it – entry points for engagement with groups who because he campaigns against China. But unfazed
are ready to resist and fight the state for their own by the massive information machinery that both
vested interests. countries use to pick on, Chinese leadership has
developed Lhasa, Tibet’s capital, Urumqi, the
Conclusion Xinjiang capital and its ancient city Kashgar as
Given the present geo-political circumstances, modern, bustling cities.9
and the string of actions India continues to For centuries the Lama followers lived in
undertake at regional and international level and absolute poverty in extreme climatic conditions
as well as its reported contacts with the Baloch and poverty until 1951, when the Chinese Peoples’
Republican Army (BRA) and the Baloch Liberation Liberation Army (PLA) brought the region under its
Front (BLF), it is safe to assume security strategists control. The current Dalai Lama -14th in number -
in New Delhi may be using these groups to bruise refused to live under Chinese political control and
and bleed Pakistan. fled to India.

China responded to externally-driven hybrid warfare in its north-western

territories i.e. Tibet and Xinjiang autonomous regions – with good governance
and exceptional service delivery. Despite separatist opposition movements –
disproportionately magnified by the western media, Beijing exclusively focused on
infrastructure development and peoples’ welfare

Green Book 2020 127

 PAKISTAN ARMY

The new spiritual leader of Tibet - the As long as Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence
Communist Party of Chinese (CPC), on the contrary remains credible, Pakistan can militarily
- chose to lift Dalai Lama’s followers out of poverty withstand the Indian coercive diplomacy and “can
and give them a respectable living. prevent adversary (India) from gaining escalation
dominance, employment of coercive tactics in a
The monstrous Inter-Continental Hotel off the crisis or to attain power at its expense.” 10
main town Lhasa, for example, is a manifestation
of the CPC to mainstream Tibetans through a But, we must recall, nuclear arsenal is
sustained socio-economic development plan that no guarantee for medium-term survival. This
has seen Lhasa swell into a modern city with capability couldn’t prevent the former Soviet
immaculate infrastructure. With the growing Union from disintegration. Nor will help Pakistan
survive and thrive economically. Given global,
population, a Lhasa New City too has emerged
geo-political alignments, the Indian coercive
with numerous high-rise commercial, official and
diplomacy coupled with various elements of
apartment buildings. hybrid war has its own limitations, yet the most
And herein lies a lesson for Pakistan on how to enduring insulation against all negative external
respond to the threats of hybrid war that originate influences will come only if the political economy
from poor governance and deficit law enforcement; is radically reformed from within to make Pakistan
fix the obsolete governance regime and focus on financially solvent.
peoples’ welfare. This will serve as the wall against Ultimately a country has to fight its own
all manifestations of hybrid war. survival battles, pursue its own strategic options
Regardless of how you name these in a complicated and challenging environment
manifestations of unrest and opposition, they never and assert its own strategic autonomy, says Mian
distracted Beijing from a relentless people-centric Sanaullah, a former ambassador. Unless Pakistan
good governance and inclusive development. swiftly and efficiently addresses issues such as:
ƒƒ Inequitable resource distribution.
ƒƒ Fast deteriorating climate, including
Repeated political compromises, depleting water resources.
continued apathy to peoples’ plight, the ƒƒ Burgeoning youth unemployment.
unending propensity among the elites ƒƒ Ailing state-enterprises (SE).
to thrive off public resources and an ƒƒ Profusely bleeding public financial sector.
incompetent, self-serving bureaucracy ƒƒ The skewed privileges architecture that
are the actual instruments of a hybrid favours a handful mighty ones to the
disadvantage of the majority of nearly 220
warfare million Pakistanis.

128 Green Book 2020

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Pakistan will remain vulnerable to external Notes

pressures, and our ruling elites will keep 1. This paper also draws on - for some primary literature - a paper by Ambas-
sador Mian Sanaullah in Strategic Thought,, a journal of International Affairs
deflecting from the real issues under one pretext magazine at the National Defense University (NDU), Volume 1 Spring 2009,
or the other, describing them as consequences of ISSN 2073-0926

an externally-imposed war on Pakistan. Repeated 2. Daniel H. Abbott, The Handbook of Fifth-Generation Warfare (5gw), Nimble

political compromises, continued apathy to

Books, September 2010
3. “NATO countering the hybrid threat”, NATO ACT, September 23, 2011. Avail-
peoples’ plight, the unending propensity among able at https://www.act.nato.int/nato-countering-the-hybrid-threat
the elites to thrive off public resources and an 4. Robert Einhorn, W.P.S. Sidhu, “The Strategic Chain Linking Pakistan, India,
incompetent, self-serving bureaucracy are the China, and the United States”, The Brooking Institute, March 2017. Available
at https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/acnpi_201703_
actual instruments of a hybrid warfare. Refusal strategic_chain.pdf
to reform the obsolete governance regime, police, 5. Seminar “Understanding Strategic Coercion in the Realm of Gray Hybrid
criminal justice systems, will keep exposing the Conflict: Implications for Pakistan”, Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad,
February 11, 2019)
country to vulnerabilities – which are easier to 6. Author’s discussions with officials in Beijing, August ,2019
fuel from abroad. Through their tardy, exclusive
7. Bachman, Dr Sasca. “The Emergence of Hybrid Warfare.” The emergence of
decision-making – which generates discontent, hybrid warfare | Bournemouth University. Bournemouth University. Accessed
fuels anger and also delays service delivery - August 30, 2019. https://www.bournemouth.ac.uk/research/projects/emer-
gence-hybrid-warfare)
the bureaucrats as well as politicians willing or 8. https://nation.com.pk/15-Mar-2015/shocking-revelations-of-nine-zero-arrest-
unknowingly become pawns of the hybrid war. ee
9. Based on author’s visits to Xinjiang (December 2018), and Tibet (August
Imtiaz Gul is the Executive Director of Center 2019)

for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), 10. John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, New York: WW Nor-
ton & Co, 2001, p.139
Islamabad

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

PAKISTAN’S
MARINE RESOURCES
AND
THE UNTAPPED
MARITIME VISTA

Khalid Rahman

Abstract
Oceans are the world’s seventh-largest economy. Their benefits are so diverse and extensive in nature
that many countries have built their entire economies on and around them. But where Pakistan stands as
of today in terms of her marine economy and how it should move forward, is a relevant question which
requires a comprehensive answer under an integrated approach. Despite vast Exclusive Economic Zone,
which may rightly be termed as the fifth province of Pakistan, there are issues hindering the harvest and
marketing of living as well as the exploration of non-living marine resources. Lack of awareness, absence
of relevant data, expertise, and non-availability of technology may be cited as some of the major factors
in this regard. Consequently, the country is losing huge economic opportunities. While marine resources
fuel the maritime economy, the present paper argues comprehensive investments in Pakistan through
public-private partnerships and maritime infrastructures in the four-tier cycle of marine resources,
i.e. exploration, exploitation, conservation, and management. Led by effective policy and legislation,
it further places emphasis on creating a robust national marine economic road map, maritime driven
coordination networks, and the knowledge-based development of coastal communities of Pakistan.
Keywords: Marine Resources, Maritime Infrastructure, Maritime Policy, Integrated Coastal Zone
Management, Maritime Governance, Marine Scientific Research

130 Green Book 2020

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O
ceans are among the most important More than 1500 types of finfish and
natural resources that the Most shellfish are found in marine waters
Beneficial Lord has bestowed
on mankind. While the oceans of Pakistan, but only 200 species are
substantially contribute to feeding commercially harvested
humankind they, in view of being one large water
body, have remained the cheapest source for the
large scale movement of goods as well as human invaluable treasure house is related to its health.
beings. Human-sea interaction, therefore, dates Over exploitation of the known marine resources,
back to centuries. climate change owing to global warming and
pollution are some of the key reasons causing
Increasing knowledge and understanding of
this ailing phenomenon. It is in this overall
the role that oceans play in the ecosystem of the
context that the UN has also included “Conserve
world of ours have lent further significance to
and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine
the oceans. At the same time, it has accelerated
resources for sustainable development” as one of
the material aspect of the oceans after the
the 17 SDGs. Global significance therefore should
nineteenth-century when the scientists tried
be felt through intellectual consideration and
learning the patterns in terms of exploration
management with tradeoffs. Moreover, the inter-
and exploitation of the marine resources. Also,
connectedness between the human systems and
excessive maritime claims and the conflicts over
the ecosystems insists on an immediate transition
marine resources, mainly fish stocks, crystallized
from single-sector management to multi-sector.
a paradigm shift and resulted in the conclusion of
the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea
(UNCLOS-1982) which may rightly be termed as
grundnorm for the oceans and enabled resources
- a product of decades long tense negotiations
between the sovereign entities.
The Seventh Largest Economy
Oceans are now conservatively estimated to
have a worth of at least US$ 24 trillion, wherein,
goods and services from coastal and marine
environments amount to US$ 2.5 trillion in terms
of annual Gross Marine Product (GMP – a budding
terminology). This places our oceans at the seventh
largest economy in the world.1These estimates do
not include outputs that are not generated by the
oceans per se. For example, coastal communities
are involved in subsistence fishing. Their social,
economic, cultural, religious as well as political
identities as indigenous peoples are driven by the
distinct habitat offered by the sea. Thus, resources Marine Potential and Pakistan
like offshore oil and gas (as minerals, gas hydrates, Where Pakistan stands as of today in terms
crude oil lie within the earth surface), and wind of her marine economy and how it should move
energy, as well as intangibles like ocean’s role forward is a relevant question which requires
in climate regulation (carbon absorption), the a comprehensive answer under an integrated
biodiversity it holds, are not part of these estimates. approach.
At the same time, there is an on-going debate over
price-tagging of the marine resources, though in Though, Pakistan, with a coastline of 990
many cases it remains exclusive or ignorant of kilometers may not be called a major coastline
ocean-related intangibles. country it should have started as a major maritime
nation, being situated at the confluence of Asia,
Oceans as Intellectual Trade offs Europe, and Africa, overlooking bulk of sea traffic
to and from the major economic hubs of the world.
While a huge amount of resources in the Ocean
But the focus has generally remained exclusive to
remains untapped a challenging aspect of this
the security dimension with issues like maritime

Oceans are now conservatively estimated to have a worth of at least US$ 24

trillion, wherein, goods and services from coastal and marine environments amount
to US$ 2.5 trillion in terms of annual Gross Marine Product

Green Book 2020 131

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Mongolia, the largest landlocked facilitating the movement of goods and people).
country in the world is supporting The country is seriously lacking the state of the
art Maritime infrastructure including terminals,
investments and economy through ships, survey and cargo vessels, shipyards, ship
Mongolian Ship Registry, or Ethiopia recycling facilities, etc., which determine the
exporting world-class seafarers to the extent of maritime power and potential to harvest
the marine resources.
world
It goes without saying that steering marine
terrorism, customs control, illegal human and economy, like any other sector, requires an
drug trafficking, and piracy. integrated vision, policy and legal frameworks,
and strong institutions to actually kick-start the
Consequently, the country has not been able exploration, exploitation, conservation, and
to exploit its full marine potential. At present, management cycle. Moreover, even the best of
Fisheries are the largest contributor to the marine vision and policy frameworks require an integrated
economy of Pakistan; 0.4 percent of total GDP. mechanism for implementation through relevant
More than 1500 types of finfish and shellfish are federal and provincial departments. We need to
found in marine waters of Pakistan, but only 200 recognize that Marine resources fuel the maritime
species are commercially harvested.2 Wherein, economy. Yet, difficulties linked to scant availability
Balochistan, which has a longer (more than double of the road map, maritime driven coordination
of the Sindh) coastline contributes only 30% of the network, the scientific data to decide the intrinsic
total fish catch as compared to 70% of Sindh’s. or monetary value (translating research in
Conventional fisheries are stressed, tapping of the products), technology-driven sustainable use, and
potential remains short of the optimum utilization, management services exist in the case of Pakistan.
mostly because irregular, unreported, unregulated
fishing (IUU) is prevalent in marine waters of Allah it is Who has subjected the sea
Pakistan.3This, on the one hand, causes a huge to you so that ships may sail upon it at
national loss, and on the other, denies the small
fishermen to earn a decent living. His bidding  and you may seek of His
Similarly, there are issues hindering the Bounty and give thanks to Him
harvest and marketing of seaweed, as well as the (Al-Quran)
exploration of non-living marine resources like oil,
gas and other minerals used in pharmaceuticals, It would be useful, in this overall context, to
cosmetic, and tech industries. Lack of awareness, discuss the issues and the way forward under four,
absence of relevant data, expertise, and non- rather overlapping areas of interventions:
availability of technology may be cited as some of
ƒƒ Maritime awareness
the major factors in this regard. Consequently, the
country is losing huge economic opportunities. It ƒƒ Ocean governance
becomes ironic when there are countries, entirely ƒƒ Marine scientific research
landlocked, but their economies rely heavily upon
ocean-based activities. Take for example Mongolia, ƒƒ Capacity-building & facilitating stakeholders
the largest landlocked country in the world is
supporting investments and economy through
First and Foremost is the Task of
Mongolian Ship Registry, or Ethiopia exporting Creating Awareness
world-class seafarers to the world.4 Importantly our very own reference points,
There are infrastructure issues as well. It is the Quran & the Hadith, greatly encourage
rightly stated that the marine economy is both sea-expeditions, exploration, and navigation.
geography and industry - a sum of direct outputs For example; “the two masses of water are not
(e.g. fisheries and aquaculture), adjacent benefits alike…from both you eat fresh meat,  and extract
(e.g. marine tourism), and services enabled by from it ornaments that you wear;  and you see
the oceans (e.g. conducting research about and ships cruising through it that you may seek of
His Bounty and be thankful to Him” (35:12).5On
another occasion, Quran says that “Allah it is
Steering marine economy, like any Who has subjected the sea to you so that ships
other sector, requires an integrated may sail upon it at His bidding and you may seek
vision, policy and legal frameworks, of His Bounty  and give thanks to Him” (45:12). A
and strong institutions to actually Hadith of Holy Prophet PBUH reiterates“its water
is purifying and its dead is lawful.” Moreover, “a
kick-start the exploration, exploitation, maritime expedition is better than ten campaigns
conservation, and management cycle of conquest on land”.6

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Pakistan’s very own Oceans-Day could be celebrated on March 19 which has a

historical significance; the day (in 2015) when the UNCLOS accepted Pakistan’s
claim for extension of its continental shelf limits from 200 to 350 nautical miles

Then comes the scope of formal education, Nations’ Commission on Limits of Continental
wherein, the inclusion of material in the Shelf (UNCLOS) accepted Pakistan’s claim for
curricula and the textbooks, starting from the extension of its continental shelf limits from 200
early to the highest levels is an action which will nautical miles to 350 nautical miles. Exclusive
provide a foundation for a sustainable long term programs and trips to maritime landmarks, for
understanding. For academic studies and high- various segments of the society, may be organized
quality research, an area-specific university7may on such occasions.
be established and existing departments may be Awareness campaigns should also address
upgraded for preliminary education on marine the issues of pollution and the general attitudes
sciences. in society in this regard. It needs to be recognized
In the meantime, as immediate and short term at all levels that an unhealthy sea is not going to
majors,media, and business organizations could be a guarantee for sustainable and quality marine
be motivated to play their role in highlighting resources. For enhancing the conservation and
the significance and the opportunities available sustainable use of oceans and their resources,
in the marine economy. Even the political and all those who are involved in fisheries or its
social leadership of the country would need an management, at any level, need to be oriented about
orientation. Keeping in view the current level of the negative consequences of overexploitation
sea blindness it should not be surprising that and destruction of fisheries. Fisheries if done at
the manifestoes of Pakistani political parties the cost of damaging the habitat is going to be
seldom discuss maritime as a sector. The role of extremely harmful to the communities involved
social media and various other channels of digital and humanity at large.
communication, networking, and outreach,
to propagate ‘maritime Pakistan’ cannot be
overemphasized in this regard.
The issue requires the development of
an integrated mindset and approach not only
from human-sea interaction aspect but also,
every single action of the government should
be cognizant of human and financial potentials
and stakes involved in the oceans. An important
example of this lack of understanding and absence
of an integrated approach is reflected in the
National Framework for Sustainable Development
Goals. The framework prepared by the Planning
Commission in March 2018 classify the SDGs in
three categories i.e. Goals requiring immediate
policy interventions, Goals requiring longer
timeframes and Goals which need long gestation
periods and will require major institutional Pakistan Navy celebrated World Oceans Day 2019
reforms. It puts goal 14 which is directly related
to the Sea in the third category8, not recognizing The Governance Aspect
that attending this goal can be extremely helpful
in achieving other goals of immediate category like Coming to the Ocean governance in Pakistan let
food security, poverty alleviation, affordable clean us recognize that the Constitution is relevant only
energy or empowerment of people etc. too. as far as environmental pollution and ecology are
concerned or the exploitation of minerals, oil, and
8th of June is Oceans Day declared as such by gas. Not everything could be drawn explicitly from
the UN. The day needs to be celebrated with equal it. However, for a positive and proactive mindset,
enthusiasm, and not to be reduced a burden,to be the implicit references provide enough space to
shared only by Pakistan Navy or private entities work towards marine economy if complimented
or a handful of non-governmental organizations. by the policy and necessary regulations from
Besides, Pakistan’s very own oceans-day could relevant bodies. While there are federal as well as
be celebrated on March 19 which has a historical provincial departments involved in the principal
significance; the day (in 2015) when the United processes, the area-specific authorities in Sindh

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

Pakistan’s very first maritime ‘comprehensiveness’ of the legal and institutional

policy came in 2002, after more than framework that should cover “all aspects” of
management of marine resources and streamline
five decades of her independence. An the human-sea interaction11. So a provision for
updated draft for a new policy is now trial and error could be allowed. Nevertheless,
pending approval for the past several there are good practices which can be learned from
years countries like Sweden or New Zealand who have
large coastal areas yet have the most decentralized,
participatory mechanism.12 This suggests that a
and Balochistan have the mandate for “planning, collaborative effort and learning from each other
development, preservation, monitoring, is important.
construction, operation, management, and
maintenance” of their respective coastal zones9. At A National Maritime Economy Institute
the same time, they are responsible for stimulating under the Ministry of Planning & Development
marine spatial planning, and protection of marine of Pakistan should be established as well as a
ecology through Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). Maritime Desk in the Foreign Office and within
other bureaucratic lines - to help implement a
Existing maritime legislation needs to be roadmap which should provide the strategic
reviewed with an eye on Jurisdictional gaps in the direction for future investment and development
law, protection, enforcement, and prosecution. of a sustainable ocean-based economy in Pakistan.
Lately the Ministry of Ports and Shipping Most important issue with regard to the
has been renamed as Ministry of Maritime governance is the absence of a comprehensive
Affairs (MMA). This is a positive decision though and updated maritime policy. Like progress in any
a lot more is required in terms of structural other area, development in maritime sector cannot
collaboration, and a holistic approach to the be imagined in a vacuum, or ignorant of emerging
marine economy. Most important tasks are to fill concepts and technical advancements. Yet,
in the gaps, address the overlapping issues and Pakistan’s very first maritime policy came in 2002,
develop coordination. The ministry at present is after more than five decades of her independence.
working on getting together an inter-ministerial An updated draft for a new policy is now pending
committee to collaborate on maritime affairs10. approval for the past several years.
Such a framework is part of the broader scheme
A policy helps in communicating and
of administration and ocean governance (e.g.
promoting the vision and provides a framework
Integrated Coastal Zone Management - ICZM). In
for establishing institutions, mechanisms and
many ways, it is an evolving phenomenon that
drafting the legislation with clear priorities in view.
invites constant outlook for workable solutions
An outdated policy may, in fact, become a liability
and this is an area where Pakistan is not alone.
in achieving anything substantial. Maritime
Other countries are also facing similar situations
Policy Draft (2014) of Pakistan is a comprehensive
in maritime coordination. Even countries, for
one. It gives helpful pointers for regulations in
example, Turkey or Ireland, with greater presence fisheries, aquaculture, shipping, marine pollution,
in the sea and better records of governance Integrated Coastal Zone Management as well as
are still confronted with problems regarding tourism, seabed mining, marine scientific research,
hydrography, training, and capacity building.
Besides it also covers security and regional
cooperation. Relevant stakeholders need to decide
on such matters of acute urgency at the earliest13.
Along with policy, existing maritime legislation
need to be reviewed with an eye on Jurisdictional
gaps in the law as well as their enforcement.
Ocean is a subject which by its very nature
is trans-boundary. Moreover, it is a growing and
evolving discipline which has gained further

Establishment of a National Maritime

Economy Institute under the Ministry of
Planning & Development of Pakistan as
well as a Maritime unit in the Foreign
Pakistan Navy launches New Hydrographic Survey Office and within other bureaucratic
Vessel - Behr Masah lines is an inevitable need

134 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

Establishment of Maritime Chamber Maritime Research

of Pakistan could be a practical idea, Importance of having accurate data cannot be
with a kind of one window operation overemphasized. There are tangible and intangible
to interact with the government for goods, services and market and non-market
activities, all of which need to be investigated and
the local and foreign investors and developed into an information system. Yet, as we
businesses all know, data collection and reconstruction is one
of the weakest areas in our country. This needs
significance in view of the recent regional and urgent attention. An accurate picture of what
global connectivity initiatives. As such it also we have in our territorial waters, what is being
involves expertise in international mechanisms for produced from there and how, as well as what is
negotiation and collaboration. Establishment of being wasted or lost are some of the key questions
a National Maritime Economy Institute under the which not only need quick answers but a regular
Ministry of Planning & Development of Pakistan as updating.
well as a Maritime unit in the Foreign Office and In this backdrop, mapping of the maritime
within other bureaucratic lines is an inevitable sector as well as stock-taking as to what is
need. Such initiatives will help implement a happening in the sector and what are the gaps
roadmap which should provide the strategic (Current state v/s Desired State) in view of the
direction for future investment and development overall potentials should be the foremost research
of a sustainable ocean-based economy in Pakistan. task to set an agenda for an informed decision
Coastal communities are the most valued making. Seen in this context the MDP (Maritime
assets related to the oceans. Their vulnerabilities Doctrine of Pakistan), launched in December
must be addressed by landscaping environmental 2018 by Pakistan Navy is a good beginning. An
challenges, community’s political participation, annual updated edition of such a document with
and threats to their social identities. Technological more information and contributions from other
cooperation and entrepreneurial support stakeholders will make it a useful contribution.
mechanisms for these communities need to be Since inception, the maritime situation
designed. demanded a proactive response - an integrated
maritime policy, reliable data support and
An accurate picture of what we have strengthened legal framework championing
in our territorial waters, what is being maritime, but for reasons ‘continental’ in nature
and ‘blindness’ towards the sea, ‘maritime’ never
produced from there and how, as well gained the attention it deserved. Even the Pakistan
as what is being wasted or lost are Economic Survey - a blueprint of the entire
some of the key questions which not economy presents a fragmented approach towards
only need quick answers, but a regular maritime; fisheries and aquaculture are dealt with
under the agriculture domain, and maritime is
updating associated with shipping only. Treating Exclusive
Economic Zone (EEZ) as Pakistan’s fifth province
Institutions and mechanisms which can and maritime an exclusive economic sector - with
facilitate coordination within the private sector features extremely diverse and rich, we must
as well as promote public-pivate partnership develop capabilities with reliable data availability
are also needed. Establishment of the Maritime and accessibility to explore, exploit, conserve, and
Chamber of Pakistan could be a practical idea in manage marine resources while affording equitable
this regard with a kind of one window operation rights and obligations to all stakeholders.
(OWO) to interact with the government for the local
and foreign investors and businesses. Equally
pragmatic is the up-gradation of the fishing fleet,
and the regulation of the fishing licenses.
Besides, Seaweed can promise sustainable
marketing and aquaculture as an alternative
livelihood to the coastal communities. Also
relevant is the law and order situation in coastal
areas. Moreover, providing conducive environment
for private enterprises, investments in physical
as well as digital infrastructure, aquaculture
farms, modernization of the existing harbors and
construction of new, are crucial developmental
aspects of the marine economy.

AstolaGreen
IslandBook 2020 135
Pakistan’s first ever Marine Protected Area
 PAKISTAN ARMY

The exploration can only be based universities should be upgraded for preliminary
on a comprehensive geological survey education on marine sciences and economy.
Similarly, there is a need to establish maritime-
after mapping the surface and sub- focused museums to promote interest in the sector.
surface characteristics of Pakistan’s
continental shelf Capacity Building
When we talk about capacity-building, it
not only requires training and producing best
The focus in today’s world is shifting seafarers or mariners, but developing a sea culture
increasingly towards exploration and exploitation particularly in the decision-making circles and
of oil and gas reserves in deep waters. The state institutions. Therefore, the suggestions given
exploration can only be based on a comprehensive above in relation to awareness or governance
geological survey after mapping the surface form an integral part of capacity building as well.
and sub-surface characteristics of Pakistan’s Technological support to maritime functionaries
continental shelf. This can be made possible also needs attention.
only when a robust economic road map and The knowledge-based economy should be
infrastructures are in place. Also, the use of established based on human development,
innovative techniques and specialized services wherein, coastal communities are the most valued
in the production of renewable energy must have assets, their vulnerabilities must be addressed
proper visibility in the functional debate. by landscaping environmental challenges, their
Like in any other sector of governance, an political participation, and threats to their social
integrated approach is needed in conducting identities. Accessibility to, and living conditions
Maritime research as well. Earlier, the perception in, coastal areas need improvement. Attitude
was developed that Navy is the sole bearer of must come handy with regard to the capacity
maritime activities. Navy indeed compensated building of youngsters of coastal communities
and complimented the government machinery in through start-ups. They should be given priority in
developing maritime Pakistan in great lengths but various Youth Development Programs such as the,
her role is restricted to either benign, police, or
military. With the discovery of unlimited prospects For academic studies and high-
of the blue economy, the global trends are taking
a sharp turn. Nevertheless, the security aspect quality research, an area-specific
remains important and with approximately 60% university, should be established
of the ocean space yet to be delimited, the scope and existing departments in various
of the conflicts at sea is critical. This requires a universities should be upgraded for
simultaneous, continuous and coordinated effort
on the part of security and the other organizations preliminary education on marine
involved in Maritime affairs including research, sciences and economy
whether in scientific, economic, social or in any
other related area. The fact that the extension
‘Kamyab Jawan’ program the present government
of Pakistan’s EEZ was a joint effort by the
has recently announced. Relevant ministries led
Hydrographic Department of Navy and National
by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs may take the
Institute of Oceanography (NIO) which was
initiative of awarding special scholarships within
established in 1982 has set an ideal example in this
the country and outside to study the maritime
regard.
sector. Moreover, the formation of a “Blue Alliance”
Moreover, historical and archaeological or at least collaborative initiatives with concerned
research and studies related to Maritime with focus maritime countries will help to build capacities at
on future need to be supported. For academic a wider level. This will provide opportunities for
studies and high-quality research, an area- learning the best practices and build the case for a
specific university, as mentioned earlier, should be rapid and comprehensive set of actions on behalf
established and existing departments in various of the ocean.
In a nutshell, Global demand for fisheries is
Coastal communities are the most rising, it is an opportunity that Pakistan must never
lose sight of. Only long-run sustainable projects to
valued assets, their vulnerabilities reduce the current levels of overfishing could help
must be addressed by landscaping reverse IUU trends. The government should invest
environmental challenges, their further in post-harvest value chains especially the
political participation, and threats to fish processing factories. Creating an enabling
environment for small, medium and micro-sized
their social identities

136 Green Book 2020

 PAKISTAN ARMY

enterprises including tax incentives and other 4. “Can Landlocked Countries Develop a Blue Economy?” Ship Technology. Ac-
cessed June 23, 2019. https://www.ship-technology.com/features/can-land-
similar facilities to those who are involved in the locked-countries-develop-blue-economy/.
sector or intend to, will help multiply the existing 5. The Quran mentioned water bodies 32 times. Also see (17:66-67), (30:46),
activities in the sector. (31:31), (42:35).‫دوعسكلملاةعماجبينورتكلإلافحصملاعورشم‬. Accessed Au-
gust 01, 2017. https://quran.ksu.edu.sa/.
It is important to affirm that a beginning has 6. A number of books of Hadith account the traditions of Prophet Muhammad
been made in Pakistan in the maritime sector. (PBUH) on sea expeditions in separate sections. For Instance; Sahih Al
Outpacing the inevitable factors and tools, Bukhari, Kitab al Jihad wa Al Siyar, Bab Rukub al Bahr, 2894-2895, Sahih Al

Pakistan must root for sincere efforts placing itself Muslim, Kitab al Imara, Bab Fazl al Guzw Fi al Bhr, 4819-4821, Sunan Abu
Dawud, Kitab al Jihad, Bab Fazl al Guzw Fi al Bhr, 2131-2132.
in a position that leads to tapping the untapped,
7. Pakistan Maritime Academy is a degree-awarding institution in Karachi. Yet
inviting stakeholders - coastal  communities, its scope is not very wide. Similarly,Bahria University Karachi Campus offers
fisheries, dependent industries, management degrees in Maritime Business, Trade and logistics, and International Mari-
authorities, exploration companies, even civil time Laws. Whereas, Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Zafar Mahmood Abbasi
while addressing a gathering at the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and In-
society - to invest in the marine resources and dustry, on January 24, 2018 announced the launch of a maritime university in
benefit, sustainably, from the riches’ offered by the Pakistan. However, until now there seems no progress on the ground.

vast maritime waters of Pakistan. Mindful however 8. Summary for The National Economic Council (NEC) Sustainable Develop-
that adjacent sectors need to play their role with ment Goals (SDGs) National Framework. Planning Commission Ministry of
Planning, Development & Reform, 2018. https://www.pc.gov.pk/uploads/re-
effective policy-making, legislation, and particular port/National_SDGs_Framework_-_NEC_2018.pdf.
emphases placed on the collection of marine 9. These bodies include the Balochistan Coastal Development Authority and
scientific data, capacity-building, facilitating Sindh Coastal Development Authority. The federal government can legislate
stakeholders, and maritime governance, from an on the matters of ports, harbors, maritime navigation, carriage of goods and
passengers by sea and port quarantine. Please refer to the Constitution of
integrated mindset. Islamic Republic of Pakistan 1973, and the Federal Legislative List.

10. MMA is currently responsible for Gwadar Port Authority, Government Ship-
Khalid Rahman is Executive President & ping Office, Karachi Port Trust, Mercantile Marine Department, Pakistan Ma-
Director General of Institute of Policy Studies, rine Academy, Pakistan National Shipping Corporation, Port Qasim Authority,
Islamabad Ports and Shipping Wing, Karachi.

11. Sesli, F. Ahmet, Aziz Sisman, and Aydinoglu A. Cagdas. “Coastal legislation
and administrative structure in Turkey.” Scientific Research and Essay 4 (12)
Notes (December 2009): 1445-1453.
1. Hoegh-Guldberg, O. et al. 2015. Reviving the Ocean Economy: the case for 12. Anne Marie O’Hagan, J. Andrew G. Co. “Extant Legal and Jurisdictional
action - 2015. WWF International, Gland, Switzerland, Geneva, 60 pp. Constraints on Irish Coastal Management.”  Coastal Management  29,
2. MFF Pakistan (2016). A Handbook on Pakistan’s Coastal and Marine Re- no. 2 (2001), 73-90; Heemskerk, Matihew. “National Efforts at Integrated
sources. MFF Pakistan, Pakistan. 78 pp. Coastal Zone Management: The Canadian, Australian and New Zealand
Experiences.” Dalhousie Journal of Legal Studies, 2001, 158-181.
3. IUU - illegal fishing is conducted by national or foreign vessels within the
marine waters of a state, without permission and in contravention of appli- 13. Recently (December 2018) Pakistan Navy has launched a document titled as
cable conservation laws and management regulations. Unreported fishing is “Maritime Doctrine of Pakistan, Preserving Freedom of Seas”, (MDP). While
referred to unreported or misreported fishing, whereas unregulated fishing is the document is useful in giving an overview of various components of the
conducted by vessels without nationality, or by those flying the flag of a state maritime sector it can best be regarded as an effort to disseminate broad
not party to the organization tasked with the conservation and management knowledge on the national maritime sector and maritime economy.
of fish stocks in a manner inconsistent with the international law.

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138 Green Book 2020

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NON-TRADITIONAL
SECURITY CHALLENGES
TO
PAKISTAN

Air Cdre Kashif Jamal Khan

Abstract
World today is experiencing an inflexible posturing of states, where competitors use hybrid forces to
destabilize adversary through extended campaigns of exhaustion. In the realm of Realpolitik, the canvas
of inter-states conflict is widened to an undefined battle-space seeping into all possible strands of national
power. Similarly, notion of security is broadened from its territorial integrity and political sovereignty to
non-traditional or comprehensive security involving non-military spectrum of threat. As per emerging
geo-political situation, Pakistan seems in the eye of the storm while confronting with multi-dimensional
challenges like simmering trust-deficit with USA, turbulent Afghanistan, spill-over of muddling Middle-
East, Indian hegemonic aspirations translated by its hyper-militarization, Indo-US nexus and anxiety
spikes over CPEC project. Pakistan’s rivals have also been devising various direct and indirect strategies
to diminish its relevance and coerce it to the stage of Pliancy. With the overt nuclearization and adoption
of full spectrum deterrence by Pakistan, any military misadventure appears cost-prohibitive for its
adversaries, thus giving much prominence to non-traditional threats in its overall security paradigm. In
this hybrid threat calculus, a host of external factors, environmental enablers and internal fissures remain
matter of grave concern for Pakistan. Hence, the complexity, diversity and existential character of these
non-traditional security challenges merit contemplation and a comprehensive response on national-level.
Keywords: Non-Traditional Threats, Economic Instability, Terrorism, Natural Disasters, Climate Change,
Cyber Warfare, Water Scarcity

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T
he famous Chinese military strategist With the overt nuclearization
Sun Tzu states, “To win one hundred
victories in one hundred battles is not and adoption of full spectrum
the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy deterrence by Pakistan, any military
without fighting is the acme of skill”.1 misadventure appears cost-prohibitive
The axiom of Sun Tzu is being endorsed in today’s for its adversaries, thus giving much
modern warfare in the post-Cold War scenario. The
world today is experiencing an inflexible posturing
prominence to non-traditional threats
of states, where competitors use hybrid forces to in its overall security paradigm
destabilize adversary through extended campaigns
of exhaustion.2 In the realm of Realpolitik, the connotations and remains no more confined to
canvas of inter-states conflict is widened to an military threat. Pakistan’s rivals have also been
undefined battle-space seeping into all possible devising various direct and indirect strategies to
strands of national power. Similarly, notion of diminish its relevance and coerce it to the stage
security is broadened from its territorial integrity of pliancy. With the overt nuclearization and
and political sovereignty to non-traditional or adoption of full spectrum deterrence by Pakistan,
comprehensive security involving non-military any military misadventure appears cost-prohibitive
spectrum of threat. According to Ichael H.H. Louw, for its adversaries, thus giving much prominence
“National Security includes traditional defence to non-traditional threats in its overall security
policy and also the non-military actions of a state paradigm. In this hybrid threat calculus, a host
to ensure its total capacity to survive as a political of external factors, environmental enablers and
entity in order to exert influence and to carry out internal fissures remain matters of grave concern
its internal and international objectives”.3 for Pakistan. Hence, the complexity, diversity
and existential character of these non-traditional
Pakistan’s security environment derives security challenges merit contemplation and a
its origins from the circumstances, in which comprehensive response at national-level.
a nascent state was created under a hostile
overhang with her neighbours. This inherent Literature Review
security dilemma still brews an unstable and tense Right on the onset, it is of essence to explore
security environment in the region. The interplay what non-traditional threats are; how these have
of “Great Game” among global powers, driven by been defined in the literature and what are their
power politics and geo-economics, has further characteristics. Whether the definition suits our
compounded the complexity with the echoes of environment or do we need any modifications?
Pakistan’s Balkanization. As per emerging geo- To answer these questions, we take a lead from
political situation, Pakistan seems in the eye of the work done by different authors. According
the storm while confronting multi-dimensional to M Aydin, the world has witnessed a shift in
challenges like simmering trust-deficit with USA, focus from traditional to non-traditional threats
turbulent Afghanistan, spill-over of muddling mainly because of unipolar arrangements.4 The
Middle-East, Indian hegemonic aspirations national security post-cold war concept was
translated by its hyper-militarization, Indo-US mostly distinguished between “hard / traditional”
nexus and anxiety spikes over CPEC project. and “soft / non-traditional” security threats.5 This
Internal instability in Pakistan is being exploited shift in strategy also revolves around the cost-
by the external adversaries, who are now leaving benefit analysis associated with utilizing military
no stone unturned to strangulate and jeopardize or traditional threats on other states vis-à-vis the
the existence of this only Islamic nuclear state. use of non- traditional methods. The effective non-
From Pakistan’s perspective as well, the term traditional methods used by the US in successful
‘‘national security’’ has also adopted broader disintegration of USSR also convinced policy
makers to divert their focus from traditional
military threats alone.
Pakistan seems in the eye of the “Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Threat” or
storm while confronting with multi- “Emerging Non-Security Issues (ENSI)” is a widely
used term to generally define issues related to
dimensional challenges like simmering national security of a country and is not related
trust-deficit with USA, turbulent
Afghanistan, spill-over of muddling
Middle-East, Indian hegemonic
aspirations translated by its hyper-
militarization, Indo-US nexus and
anxiety spikes over CPEC project

140 Green Book 2020

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to traditional military threats. According to Khalid

Iqbal, a former PAF Air Commodore, the definition ‘‘We start working on Pakistan’s
of the term lacks preciseness, acceptability or vulnerabilities; economic, internal
authoritativeness.6 Mely Anthony defines these security, political, isolating them
non-traditional security threats as “Challenges to internationally, it can be anything; it
the survival and well-being of peoples and states
that arise primarily out of non-military sources, can be defeating Pakistan’s policies
such as climate change, cross-border environmental in Afghanistan, so go for more of the
degradation and resource depletion, infectious covert thing (against Pakistan)’’
diseases, natural disasters, irregular migration, (Ajit Doval - Indian NSA)
food shortages, people smuggling, drug trafficking
and other forms of transnational crime”.7 While
Mely realizes that NTS threats are challenges for Emerging Non-Traditional Threat
national survival, yet her definition is narrowed Arena in Indo-Pak Context
only to non-military sources, i.e. she does not
During recent era, Indo-Pak scenario has
consider the use of covert military means to
emerged as a flashpoint of Hybrid warfare with
generate these NTS challenges. Moreover, her widening non-traditional threat dimensions.
suggested list does not include contemporary In a post-nuclear environment, India devised
challenges to Pakistan such as terrorism, economic Cold Start Doctrine, based on a “Quick Bite and
instability etc. Saurabh Chaudhuri, defines “Non- Hold” manoeuvre without breaching Pakistan’s
traditional security issues in contrast to traditional nuclear threshold. The same was checkmated
security threats and refers to the factors other than and dispelled by Pakistan’s New Concept of War
military, political and diplomatic conflicts but can Fighting (NCWF) and full spectrum deterrence.
pose threats to the survival and development of a Now under Modi-Doval Doctrine, India has
sovereign state and human kind as a whole”.8 This accentuated non-traditional threat dynamics while
definition also realizes these challenges as a threat tilting towards “Indirect Strategy‟ to destabilize
to nation’s survival and even to mankind but Pakistan on social, economic, political, military
narrows its focus to informational, economic and and diplomatic fronts so that Pakistan ultimately
cultural domains only (DIMEc). Ullman argues that fall prey to India’s “Compellence Strategy”. In his
the national security of a country should not be own words, Ajit Doval stated “We start working
viewed only as military attacks from other states, on Pakistan’s vulnerabilities; economic, internal
rather the threats generated within a country has security, political, isolating them internationally,
equal capability of undermining the stability of a it can be anything; it can be defeating Pakistan’s
nation. He gives equal importance to traditional policies in Afghanistan, so go for more of the covert
and non-traditional threats and cautions that thing (against Pakistan)”. 10 The Indian policy
paying too much attention to military threats alone makers seem under the influence of their ancestor
strategic thinker Chanakya Kautilya and his Vedic
not only mislead but prove extremely dangerous to
principle “Bheda”. According to Kautilya “If the
national survival.9
end could be achieved by non-military method,
Articulation of Definition. Keeping in view even by methods of intrigue, duplicity and fraud,
the observations in earlier definitions presented by he would not advocate an armed conflict”.11 The
various researchers, the common characteristics of prevailing situation translates the same Indian
the term, Pakistan’s national security environment, mindset to attain their politico-military objectives
geo-political and geo-strategic realities, this essay in a cost effective way, without alarming the bells of
defines non-traditional security threats as “Easily “Jus in bello”, thus posing serious non-traditional
spreadable, cost effective and relatively more security challenges to Pakistan.
unpredictable, natural or human-less military
generated threats, which can degrade country’s Prioritization of Challenges for
economy thus threatening national security, National Security of Pakistan
and against which a comprehensive response Literature review on non-traditional
by all elements of national power is considered challenges to any country depicts an array of
extremely essential especially under no or vague factors causing effects on national security. This
international laws”.

Smog in Pakistan’s Punjab Province due

If the end could be achieved by non-
to stubble burning by Indian farmers
military method, even by methods of
intrigue, duplicity and fraud, he would
not advocate an armed conflict
(Chanakya Kautilya)

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list includes Economic Instability, Terrorism, Economic plight fragments society,

Demographic Challenges, Energy / Food Crises,
Fragile Political System, Cyber Threats, Natural
decays functional capacity of a state,
Disasters & Climate Change, Border Security, Water erodes its military deterrence, induces
Scarcity, Foreign Policy Dilemmas, Refugees and political turmoil, which in turn weakens
Illegal immigrants, Organized Crime, Governance national security
Issues, Foreign Influences etc. Any factor would
have varied effect in a particular environment.
For the purpose of this essay, the panel undertook state. In-fact, it is the driving force behind the
a survey questionnaire from 50 participants entire fabric of society. Economic plight fragments
with an aim to shortlist five most relevant non- society, decays functional capacity of a state,
traditional security challenges to Pakistan. The erodes its military deterrence, induces political
sample questionnaire is placed as “Appendix” to turmoil, which in turn weakens national security.
this essay. The survey result (depicted in Table I) The military might with biggest nuclear arsenal
shows that Economic Instability, Terrorism, Cyber could not avert demise of USSR in recent past
Threats, Natural Disasters, Climate Change and which is evident by imbalance between economic
Water Scarcity as those non-traditional threats, growth and defense spending statistics in Table II.12
which have direct bearing on Pakistan’s national Pakistan is facing serious economic challenges
security and require immediate measures for which are evident through Low Key Performance
mitigation. indicators like weak economic growth, declining
investment, stagnant industrial production, rising
Threat-1 (Economic Instability – The unemployment, large fiscal deficit, falling forex
Most Critical Challenge) reserves and desperate external borrowing. One of
Economy, being an extremely important the core attributing factors for this economic plight
element of National Power, emerges as a corner- is the Indian rampant military build-up and hyper
stone in the edifice of a stable and sovereign militarization. A hike of 5.43% in her defence
Ser Factor Type National Economy Morale National Threat Total % Rank
Security Integration
1 Economic 351 485 401 353 452 2042 81.68 1
Instability
2 Terrorism 400 401 450 301 454 2006 80.24 2

3 Demographic 202 250 203 204 206 1065 42.6 15

Challenges
4 Energy / Food 303 301 350 200 167 1321 52.84 7
Crises
5 Fragile Political 210 250 310 207 157 1134 45.36 11
System
6 Cyber Threats 313 402 354 353 350 1772 70.88 4

7 Natural Disasters 307 406 408 350 350 1821 72.84 3

& Climate Change
8 Border Security 155 251 211 250 213 1080 43.2 13
9 Water Scarcity 311 421 350 350 302 1734 69.36 5
10 Foreign Policy 250 250 309 112 312 1233 49.32 9
Dilemmas
11 Refugees 122 250 212 250 233 1067 42.68 14
and Illegal
immigrants
12 Organized Crime 278 332 345 212 277 1444 57.76 6

13 Governance 211 254 303 200 208 1176 47.04 10

Issues
14 Foreign 251 250 313 129 317 1260 50.4 8
Influences

Table I (Survey Result)

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Tax system of Pakistan is quite

complex and narrow with a dearth of
accountability and sheer disparity in
tax net, which inherently encourages
evasion

inherently encourages evasion. High Tax-rates,

coupled with tax multiplicity, create disincentives
for tax-payers. It hardly remains about 10.5% of
GDP with no incremental indicators over years as
graphically depicted in Figure 1.13
Table II (USSR GDP Growth vs Defence Spending) Growing Fiscal Deficit. As per economic
surveys in Pakistan, there is an alarming gap
budget of 2017-18 as compared to previous year aptly between revenue collection and expenditures of
translates its aims to embroil Pakistan in arms race government. From total revenue, around 57% is
and drain its already fragile economic resources. given to provinces after NFC award, which further
India has also intensified its efforts to undermine curtails economic capacity of federal government.
viability of CPEC by propagating controversies
Rising Trade Deficit. There is a serious
and suspicions besides instigating subversive
dollar gap crisis due to trade imbalance between
activities in Baluchistan. Indian clout uses their
imports and exports of Pakistan. Similarly, there
increased influence to scuttle Pakistan’s export
is an evident declining trend of net investment
and labour market to decline our remittances.
in successive years which may be associated
Likewise, rising mistrust and divergences between
with deteriorating Internal Security. The trends
Pakistan and USA is also waning their economic
are shown in Figure 2. Lack of focus on Human
relationship thereby further straining Pakistan’s
Resource Development and bureaucratic
economy.
impediments for private sector also decline our
Some of the other glaring challenges in the export graphs.14
economic domain are elaborated in ensuing sub-
Accumulation of External Debt. Pakistan
paragraphs.
external debt in FY 2016-17 has swelled up to 81.5
Lower Tax Revenue. Tax system of Pakistan Billion USD, in which around 73% is accumulated
is quite complex and narrow with a dearth of in last two decades as depicted in Figure 3. This
accountability and sheer disparity in tax net, which debt trap may lead to an economic collapse cum

Figure 1 ( Trends in Revenue as percentage of GDP)

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

coercion to compromise on our national interests ƒƒ Launch a concerted austerity campaign and
even of strategic nature. curtail futile and superfluous expenditures
Recommendations. To evade this economic across the board to shorten the gap between
regression, an immediate and serious attention federal revenue and expenses.
from national leadership is deemed essential ƒƒ Broaden tax net with implementation of
for Pakistan. Following few measures may be tax reforms, system accountability and
instituted:- transparent policies.
ƒƒ Continue efforts to uplift overall economic ƒƒ Improve Human and Social Development
stature through operationalization of Index through skill-enhancement programs
CPEC, completion of Gwadar Port and and educational reforms.
implementation of National Action Plan

Figure 2 (Alarming Trends of Pakistan’s Economy)

for improved Internal Security in pursuit of ƒƒ Provide ease of business to private sector
Foreign Direct Investment. through contract enforcement, effective
ƒƒ Lower tax burden on manufacturing sector to regulatory framework, managing law and
promote and encourage our local industry. order and dispensation of justice.
ƒƒ Curb speculative investments and trading Threat-2 (Menace of Terrorism)
in stock market, property and commodity
The second non-traditional challenge, which
holding by formulating industry-friendly
has greatly affected our economy and is also
economic policies.
considered as one of the most recognized and

Figure 3 (Rise in Pakistan’s External Debt)

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visible threat to Pakistan’s national security post “Nation’s determination to preserve

9/11, is Terrorism. Although considered as a global certain interests at all costs; foremost
issue, this phenomenon not only threatens state among these national interests
security by undermining national authorities and
the rule of law, it also undermines the security and are nation’s integrity, political
well-being of individuals and societies. Pakistan independence and fundamental
is perhaps the only country which has paid an political institutions’’
enormous cost both in terms of loss of human (Robert E. Osgood Jr)
life and material damages.15 “Since Pakistan
became frontline ally of the United States in war
on terror after 9/11, the economy of this developing unanimously approved by the Government.
country suffered a whopping $123.1 billion cost on Operation Zarb-e-Azb and NAP (2014 onward)
account of loss of lives, economic opportunities had a salutary effect on the security situation
and damage to the country’s infrastructure”.16 of the country. According to National Counter
Moreover, Pakistan’s engagement in the war on Terrorism Authority (NACTA) Pakistan data,
terror has cost her more than 6,700 lives of armed there is a progressive and significant decline in
forces personnel, along with more than 15,000 terrorist related incidents in Pakistan i.e. from
soldiers wounded, and a civilian death count 1816 terrorism related incidents in 2014 to 489 in
higher than 67,000 people. year 2017.19 This decline in incidents involves many
The realization of terrorism being the constructive measures taken by Pakistan which
greatest threat to Pakistan’s national security is includes employment of troops in troubled areas
widely recognized by Pakistan leaders. Ex CJCSC for apprehension and prosecution of militants/
General Tariq Majid, while speaking on the topic, terrorists, rooting out foreign militants, sharing of
emphasized that “our greatest vulnerability today vital intelligence among the sister LEAs and friendly
is trans-national sub-conventional threats and countries, banning of extremist organizations and
recurring natural disasters which usually require hate literature and border fencing etc. Evaluating
multinational cooperation to manage”.17 Renowned Pakistan’s counter terrorism strategy and efforts
economist Dr Ashfaque during a lecture at PAF over the years, we can conclude that the rapid
Institute on 21 September, 2017 outlined various decline in terrorist related incidents is a testament
factors which literally crashed the efforts being to the fact that Pakistan is on the right track in
made to boost the national economy. These factors countering this non-traditional imposed challenge.
included suicide bombings across the country, Recommendations. While Pakistan has
militant activities in Swat and tribal districts,
taken concrete steps to eradicate the menace of
assassination of Benazir Bhutto and imposition of
terrorism yet there are certain actions we may like
a state of emergency in 2007 literally crushed the
efforts being made to boost the national economy. to adapt for further threat mitigation. Following
We will have to take pain for our future; otherwise, recommendations are made in this context:-
there will be no tomorrow.” ƒƒ In addition to creating a strong counter
The next question to answer is that how this narrative to terrorists, ideology, Pakistan also
non-traditional challenge affects our national needs to exploit the strong and effective media
security and the role of international agencies / social media to defame terrorists, credibility.
and states sponsoring terrorism in our country. ƒƒ Cut financial sources of terrorist groups by
Robert E. Osgood Jr has defined national security curbing money laundering and drug trafficking
as “nation’s determination to preserve certain in Pakistan, towards which a lot has already
interests at all costs. Foremost among these been done by the state.
national interests are: nation’s integrity, political
independence and fundamental political ƒƒ Control mal-propagation of local mosques
institutions”.18 Besides the active involvement and unregistered religious schools to incite
of various international intelligence agencies of sectarian rift.
different countries, the role of state sponsored ƒƒ To pay in the same coin, Pakistan should come
terrorism within Pakistan by India is no more a out of this defence strategy mindset and may
hidden fact. The recent conviction of active Indian consider to take the threat to the adversary.
Navy service agent “Kulbushan Yadav” on account
of conducting anti-state activities within Pakistan Threat-3 (Natural Disasters and
clearly determines the role of our arch enemy for Climate Change)
inflicting damage to our national security by using
Due to diverse range of terrain, Pakistan is
a non-traditional method.
susceptible to wide-ranging natural disasters
After the Army Public School incident, i.e. floods, earthquakes, cyclones, heat waves,
where large numbers of children were martyred landslides, forest fires, receding glaciers, droughts
by militants, “National Action Plan (NAP)‟ was and epidemics etc. In addition, climate change

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is also causing extreme temperatures and severe

heat / cold waves. Generally natural disasters
Dams constructed by India in IOJK
cause higher number of fatalities than terrorism; are as lethal as any other war weapon
however this aspect receives less focus and hence against Pakistan’ as these are potential
less funding.20 sources of anthropogenic floods in
Devastating earthquake of 2005 rattled Pakistan in peace as well as war time
the northern Pakistan and more than 100,000
casualties were reported. Floods manipulated by
India in the last decade affected Pakistan severely. District Disaster Management Authorities, and Fire
Dams constructed by India in IOJK are as lethal as Brigades at the town level etc. However in case of a
any other war weapon against Pakistan, as these disaster, mostly Armed Forces of Pakistan are seen
are potential sources of anthropogenic floods in action.
in Pakistan in peace as well as war time. Floods
One of the contributory factors threatening the
cause great loss to human life, agriculture and
national security in modern era is environment
residential lands, plantation, animal livestock and
degradation, climate change and its cascading
expensive infrastructure.
effects. Pakistan’s economy is agrarian based
Drought is another threat to security of and is highly sensitive to climate change as
Pakistan. Affected areas include Thar, Cholistan, crop production may be seriously disturbed
Tharparkar, Kohistan and Western Balochistan. due to change in normal climate.21 A rise in
Drought in these areas resulted in human deaths, temperatures leads to severe heat waves, cyclones
migration of thousands of people and killing of a and storms in tropical regions thereby causing
large numbers of cattle. Another security threat more deaths. A natural melting process of glaciers
is land-sliding due to topographical structure of is also accelerated which causes floods, rise in sea
northern Pakistan. levels and its allied fallouts. Rising temperatures
Response of a country to handle natural create a favorable environment for spread of
disasters is an indicator of its true power potential communicable diseases, e.g. Malaria and Cholera
and hence should be given due priority. Though etc. Thus climate change leads to serious threats
there already exists a number of institutes in to security of Pakistan and need to be considered
Pakistan for disasters management like Federal as such.
Drought Emergency Relief Assistance (DERA) Unit, Recommendations. To contain / minimize
Federal Flood Commission, National Disaster the ill-effects of natural disasters, following is
Management Authority (NDMA), Provincial and suggested:-
ƒƒ Disaster management may be taught as a
subject in university education, and necessary
training may be imparted.
ƒƒ Research may be undertaken by qualified
persons to mitigate the effects of natural
disasters and climate changes in order to make
a disaster resilient Pakistan.
ƒƒ Early warning systems may be commissioned,
installed and integrated with NDMA to
minimize casualties in case of natural
disasters. Highly vulnerable areas should be
given special attention.
ƒƒ Role of disaster management cell may be
redefined so that it is not limited to cater
only for after-effects of disasters (provision of
relief), rather it should suggest and implement
measures to prevent disasters.
ƒƒ Integration of efforts for different actors, e.g.
various institutes, ministries, departments,
NGOS and even armed forces may be realized,
to tackle the situations of emergency.
ƒƒ Tree plantation campaigns may be run to plant
plenty of trees all over Pakistan to control
Baglihar Hydroelectric Power Project on Chenab floods, prevent soil erosion and slow down the
River - Doda district of IOJK pace of climate change.

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Threat-4 (Cyber Warfare)

The Global Commons are considered
as physical spaces that are not under direct
jurisdiction of a country and hence demand for
responsible management. These spaces and assets
are relevant to all states around the globe for
provision of connectivity to the rest of the world,
e.g. sea lines of communication, air routes above
seas etc. Cyberspace also falls under the purview
of global commons.22 Cyberspace is a network of
networks including thousands of Internet Service
Providers (ISPs) around the globe. Cyberspace
is used to share information and in the modern
age of information it has been labeled as a new
battlefield with no defined boundaries and hence
a new threat to national security. Deterrence also Indians hacked over 200 Pakistani websites
does not seem to work for prevention of cyber after Pulwama Incident
warfare.
Cyber Warfare includes Cyber Attacks, Media has reported a number of cyber attacks
Cyber Espionage and Cyber Sabotage. A Cyber- in the last few years involving, but not limited
Attack causes compromise on computer security, to, China, Russia, UK, Israel and the US. These
confidentiality, integrity or availability of data. states are considered to engage in cyber-conflicts
Cyber Espionage is a cyber-attack, launched with other states in order to tap classified military
by foreign intelligence services, against the information. US has even blamed Russia for
confidentiality of a computer system. Cyber manipulation of US Presidential Elections 2016
Sabotage is an attack against the integrity and which is a testimony of how national security of
availability of computer systems. Such cyber a country may be compromised through cyber-
attacks.
The domains likely to suffer Pakistan Armed Forces have already realized
from cyber warfare include Energy, the potential and vulnerability of cyber world, and
Information and Communication necessary actions are being taken. Comprehensive
Technology (ICT), Transport, Health, policies have been formulated to deal efficiently
with the threats arising through social media, use
Finance and Insurance Sector, State of flash drives and malwares etc. However such
Administration and Media etc measures are required to be extended to national
level by all the stake-holders.
operations are launched by the adversary state or
by non-state actors. The domains likely to suffer Recommendations. Following few
from cyber warfare include Energy, Information recommendations are made to cater for potential
and Communication Technology (ICT), Transport, cyber threats, which may jeopardize security of
Health, Finance and Insurance sector, State Pakistan:-
Administration and Media etc. Cyber has therefore ƒƒ All network based computer systems of
been identified as a big security threat to a country. government organizations must be decoupled
Cyber threats, if not addressed properly, may lead from the internet.
to catastrophic effects or even collapse of national
systems. ƒƒ Cyber-crime bill 2016 may be implemented
in letter and spirit and defaulters need to be
Cyber Crime Bill was approved by Parliament penalized strictly.
of Pakistan in 2016 to process legal proceedings
against the criminals. However, pragmatically ƒƒ Proper monitoring of cyber activities may be
defaulters can only be penalized within the realized at the national level.
boundaries of Pakistan and in many cases Threat-5 (Water Scarcity)
offenders remain anonymous. There are no explicit
regulations at the end of United Nations, which The 21st century is coined as “Thirsty Century”,
define the rules of game among the nations. The as it is expected that future wars would be triggered
number of instances of cyber attacks for inter- state over water control due to depleting water reservoirs
cyber war is on the rise and poses a serious threat and booming world population. From Pakistan’s
to national security of Pakistan. It is also alarming perspective, water shortage with reducing streams
that the cyber war arena skids to non -state actors in its rivers running from India, has assumed an
as well. alarming state. With Indus river system starting

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

from Manasarovar Lake in Tibet crossing through Owing to construction of Sallal,

IOJK and finally entering Pakistan, control of Wullar, Baghlihar, Kishenganga
Indus River and its tributaries remains with India.
Besides its ideological connotation, Kashmir issue dams by India and construction of
has a direct linkage with control of Indus water and underground structures in the river
is therefore declared as Jugular vein of Pakistan. beds; Pakistan receives around 22,000-
Owing to construction of Sallal, Wullar, Baghlihar,
Kishenganga dams by India and construction of
25,000 cusecs, which is less than half
underground structures in the river beds; Pakistan of its share
receives around 22,000-25,000 cusecs, which
is less than half of its share.23 India, being the shows water management and efficient usage
upper riparian has constantly been violating the of surplus water available during summers
Indus treaty since 1960. This offensive posture has through increased storage mechanism.
become part and parcel of Indian indirect strategy
thus posing a serious non-traditional threat to ƒƒ Insufficient Reservoirs. Pakistan suffers
Pakistan’s security. from losing 13 million cusecs of water every
year from its rivers into the sea, as it does
Associated Factors. The other associated not have enough storage reservoirs despite
factors, which further compound the prevailing enormous potential of dam sites construction.
water disaster, are as follows:- Some of the prominent surveyed sites and
ƒƒ Population Boom. Pakistan’s population is their potential are depicted in Figure 5.25
galloping towards 250 million in just a few ƒƒ Dams’ Silting. Live storage in the available
years’ time leading to extensive shortage of per reservoirs is depleting due to silting up. The
capita water availability. The graphical index existing storage reservoirs at Tarbela, Mangla
of population growth and water availability and Chashma are losing their capacities at a
per person is shown in Figure 4.24 Red line rapid rate. Lack of periodic maintenance also
shows population incremental hike while Blue increases this phenomenon.
line translates proportional water availability
decline from more than 5000 CM per person ƒƒ Seepage. Feeding canals are not lined, which
per annum at the time of independence to less induces seepage. Around 20 to 25 % of the
than a 1000 CM (scarcity threshold). Green line usable 103 Million Acre Feet (MAF) of irrigation

Figure 4 (Population Growth vs Water Availability)

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Height
Storage Power
Project River of Dam Status
(MAF) (MW)
(FT)
Yogo Syhok 540 4.82 1000 Reconnaissance study completed

Skardu Indus 755 15.52 4000 Reconnaissance study completed

Bhasha Indus 660 5.7 3360 Feasibility study completed

Kalabagh Indus 260 6.1 3600 Feasibility study completed

Kalam Swat 450 0.26 110 Reconnaissance study completed

Mir Khani Chitral 410 0.58 150 Reconnaissance study completed

Khazana Panjkora 380 0.56 110 Reconnaissance study completed

Munda Swat 700 0.67 740 Feasibility study completed

Raised Mangla Jhelum 428 3.1 180 Feasibility study completed

Additional Additional
Naran Kunhar 640 0.25 219 Reconnaissance study completed

Suki Kinari Kunhar 525 0.12 662 Reconnaissance study completed

Patrind Kunhar 425 0.1 133 Reconnaissance study completed

Total 37.69 14257

Figure 5 (Surveyed Sites for Dams in Pakistan)

water is wasted due to our inefficient system of modernization for economized use of water
irrigation. beside adoption of change in crop patterns
and varieties.
ƒƒ Uneconomical Water Management. Not
using modern techniques of irrigation like ƒƒ Continual efforts to develop consensus on
sprinkling increases the shortage. Likewise, Kalabagh dam as a long term option.
about 50 percent of the water loss occurs due ƒƒ Undertake research to minimize evaporation
to uneven fields. From 2010 to 2014, 112 BCM losses and recycling of agricultural and civil
worth US $ 46.0 Billion of water has been effluents.
wasted only during the flood.
ƒƒ Form a panel of technocrats and law experts
ƒƒ Random Crop Pattern. Rice and sugar to resolve legal agreements with India either
cane crops consume large quantity of water. bilaterally or through international forums.
Farmers tend to grow them due to their good
price and abundance of sugar mills. Likewise, Conclusion
there is no trend of cultivating alternate food Entangled with an inherent security dilemma,
products having same nutrition value but less ascending geo-economics in South Asia and
water consumption. in the wake of global strategic realignments,
ƒƒ Effects of Urbanization and Pakistan is witnessing turbulent times swaying
Industrialization. Growing urban and between traditional and non-traditional security
industrial use of water is also contributory challenges. The reorientation of threat dynamics,
factor. beyond military dimensions, has virtually blurred
the civilian and military boundaries unleashing
Recommendations. Following measures
serious economic and security contests for
are to be adopted to deal with the water scarcity
Pakistan. With the advent of comprehensive
threat:-
security concept, cost and consequences of
ƒƒ Construct new dams along with raising of conventional conflict and balance of deterrence
Mangla dam on emergent basis. between two nuclear rivals, there seems a remote
ƒƒ Inculcate awareness and introduce possibility of an all-out war. Similarly, notion of

Green Book 2020 149

 PAKISTAN ARMY

victory seems transforming from territorial gains 6. Khalid Iqbal, “Contours Of Non-Traditional Security Challenges: Global, Re-
gional& National Perspectives, A Top Down Appraisal”.
to informational ascendancy. Hence, Pakistan’s 7. Mely Caballero-Anthony, “Non-traditional Security Challenges, Regional
threat perception is also stretched towards a wide Governance, and the ASEAN Political-Security Community”, Asia Security
array of non-traditional domains, propelled by Policy Working Paper No.7, (2010).

multiple fissures and environmental enablers. 8. Saurabh Chaudhuri, “Defining Non-traditional Security Threats”, Global India
Foundation, 2011. http://www.globalindiafoundation.org/nontradionalsecurity.
htm (accessed on August 12, 2018).
The annals of history amply prove that despite
being in hot water since decades, Pakistan has 9. Richard H Ullman, “Redefining Security”, International Security, Summer”, vol.
8, No 1, MIT Press, Massachusetts. http://www.scribd.com/doc/84675722/
always emerged as one of the most resilient Redefining-Security-Richard-Ullman (accessed on August 13, 2018).

nations. Pakistan is a land of opportunities with 10. Riaz Haq, India’s Role in Quetta Bombing: A Conspiracy Theory?, Haq‟s
Musings, August, 2016 http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/08/indias-role-in-quet-
immense connectivity potential and a gateway ta-bombing.html. (accessed on August 19, 2018).
to economic regional integration. There seems 11. R. Shamasastry, Chanakya Kautilya, Arthashastra, Translated into English,
a tough way ahead but a bright future. Blessed (1929), eBook, p370.

with over 200 Million population, a vibrant youth, 12. William Easterly and Stanley Fisher, “The Soviet Economic Decline”, The
World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 9, No. 3, September 1995, 341-371.
conviction of CPEC accomplishment, an evolving
democracy, subsiding terrorism, and a strong 13. Ashfaque Hasan Khan, Ministry of Finance, Lecture delivered at PAF Institute
on September 21, 2017.
military instrument, Pakistan is fully capable to 14. Kaiser Bengali, Lecture at PAF Institute on September 18, 2017.
mitigate all such security challenges through a 15. Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, Security Threats Confronting Pakistan.
proactive and wholesome national response. It 16. https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/206709-Pakistan-suffers-1231-bn-losses-
is need of the hour to realize that strong political in-terror-war (accessed August 26, 2018)
will, national solidarity and synergetic application 17 Tariq Majid, General and Ex CJCSC, Non-traditional Security Threats Taking
of all elements of national power become cardinal Centre Stage, Islamabad, October 22, 2008.

imperatives. Now, it is no longer possible to rely 18. Robert E. Osgood, Limited War Revisited. (Westview Pr. 1979).

on military means alone to safeguard National 19. https://nacta.gov.pk/terrorism-decline-in-pakistan/ (accessed September 03,
2018)
Security and thwart non-traditional threats.
20. http://www.soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrief-natural-disasters-and-national-se-
curity/ (accessed August 20, 2018).
Notes
21. Divya Srikanth. “Non-traditional Security Threats in the 21st Century: A Re-
1. Sun Tzu, “The Art of War” In Strategic Studies (Routledge, 2008), 39. view.” International Journal of Development and Conflict 4, No. 1 (2014): 60-
68.
2. Williamson Murray, and Peter Mansoor, HW: Fighting Complex Opponents
from the Ancient World to the Present (New York, Cambridge University 22. James M. Keagle, “Non-Traditional Security Threats and Asia-Pacific Region-
Press, 2012), 21. al Cooperation“.National Defense Univ Fort Mcnair Dc Center for Technology
and National Security Policy (2012).
3. Ajay Patnaik, and Anuradha M. Chenoy, Traditional and Non-Traditional
Threats to Central Asian States (KW Publisher, 2011), 87. 23. Iqtidar H Siddiquii, Hydro politics and Water Wars in South Asia (2010), 77.

4. Mustafa Aydin, Non-Traditional Security Threats and Regional Cooperation in 24. Hisham Usama, The Vulnerability of Pakistan‟s Water Sector to the Impacts
the Southern Caucasus (Istanbul IOS Press, 2011), i-xii. of Climate Change, International Institute for Sustainable Development, Can-
ada, 2016.
5. Niklas Swanström, “Traditional and Non-Traditional Security Threats in Cen-
tral Asia: Connecting the New and the Old”, China and Eurasia Forum Quar- 25. WAPDA Vision 2025, http://waterinfo.net.pk/sites/default/files/knowledge/
terly, Vol. 8, No. 2 (2010), 35. Wapda%20Development%20Portfolio.pdf. (assessed September 08, 2018

150 Green Book 2020

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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
FUTURE PROSPECTS
IN NATIONAL AND DEFENCE
RELATED ASPECTS

A year spent in Artificial

Intelligence is enough to make
one believe in the God
Alan Perlis

Major Rana Haseeb Ahmed

Abstract
The war doctrines are mostly result oriented methodologies dictated by the need and tailored by taking
advantage of time, resources and space by subtle resource management and manoeuvre through
tactics and strategies at points of application on certain time frames. Agility, resource distribution
and calculations of time and space are key features of these doctrines. Clever manipulations in these
entities can change the shape and type of war. If Artificial Intelligence is incorporated, advantage of
time and space can automatically be gained owing to the quickest possible decision making through
readily learned systems. This optimization may be started from systems at tactical level and may be
integrated towards higher ends to meet the strategic goals. Thus, strategies can be modernized and
redefined through Artificial Intelligence. Some of the potential applications of Artificial Intelligence in
current systems are discussed in this paper to enhance capabilities of Armed Forces of Pakistan.
Keywords: Armed Forces of Pakistan, Artificial Intelligence, Artificial Intelligence for Military, Modern
Warfare, Augmenting Strategies through Artificial Intelligence, Modernizing Warfare Through Artificial
Intelligence, Artificial Intelligence for Armed Forces

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

H
uman intelligentsia has worked
wonders through inventions, AI has vast benefits, foremost
innovation and improvements in the the elimination of human need to
computer science and technology. fully control the systems vis-à-vis
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one of the
most emergent fields in this regard empowering
eliminating the limits and restrictions
computers to act like human brains. Giving posed by humans
freedom to machines to self-learn and take better
decisions through AI has vast benefits, foremost
the elimination of human need to fully control Economy of Effort and Better Management
the systems vis-à-vis eliminating the limits and of Logistic Resources. Economy of effort through
restrictions posed by humans. precise measurements and predictions can be
achieved using AI. The weather and scenario-based
The whole gamut of Armed Forces has a calculations leading to better decisions along
variety of manual yet real-time systems including with associated actions, may change the shape of
weapon systems and command, control & war environment. This can be learnt by example
communication systems which involve humans. of road move. When a convoy move is planned
These systems can be automated and much refined by the staff (with chances of human error and
using AI algorithms and robotics; not only to save miscalculations of routes and time), it takes some
the invaluable cost of time and resources, thereby effort and time to prepare move tables to formulate
gaining advantage over the adversary through the plan. Whilst the same may be quickly done
subtle suggestive manipulation in manoeuvre, using AI based solution, which can also suggest
but also can increase the accuracy and lethality of multiple move plans with better fuel-savings
weapon systems against the adversary. and optimized solutions for the  Vehicle Routing
Problem  (VRP) or Travelling Salesman Problem
AUGMENTING CAPABILITIES OF (TSP),[2] using different algorithms. AI system can
PAKISTAN’S DEFENCE aptly manage logistics stores at different levels to
fulfill the need of all dependents by learning the
Advantages for Pakistan Army demand and supply chain over a period of time in
Better Articulation of Firepower. Currently, different formations.
fire support planning is carried out manually in Internal Security Situation Analysis.
Pakistan Army. While, a system can be developed Bombings and IED explosions have greatly damaged
to automate this process. Aiding the system with AI the Armed Forces as well as the civilian population
can help articulating the type, caliber and rate of of Pakistan. Systems storing crime information and
fire of multifarious weapons through learning and predicting the areas of expected similar crimes in the
refining cycle to consolidate Fire Support Plans at future, are already in place in developed countries
all tiers. This will give a competitive advantage of e.g. AI Research Portfolio of National Institute
time to commanders at all tiers and flexibility in of Justice, USA supports areas of public safety
handling the battle by management of firepower in video and image analysis, DNA analysis, gunshot
case of contingencies and change of plans. detection, and crime forecasting[3]. Similar AI based

A 152
BombGreen BookRobot
Disposal 2020
 PAKISTAN ARMY

After learning, the AI-empowered system can suggest the most suitable deployment
plans which can then be continuously updated during various scenarios being faced
through sensory or human input

systems can be incorporated in our environment to exactly let the commander know at which point
deal with internal security situation analysis and and when to launch his reserves. Crucial role of
prediction with help of AI generated heat maps to higher levels of reserves can also be managed
bring peace to the nation. by AI based systems. The intelligent system may
Deployment & Manoeuvre Assessment also predict timeframe of launching reserves thus
System. At present, the GIS and map solutions preparations can be made earlier and can suggest
facilitate the Army in marking plans incorporating what type and level of reserves should be launched
the enemy and own presence in an area. These if the system has been taught about the force
plans have to be manually updated as dictated compositions.
by the situations. If AI in incorporated in such Robotic Armored Tanks. Currently tanks
applications, the system can learn through the and APCs are manually operated by humans.
marked plans by observing patterns including AI commanded and robot controlled vehicles,
ground and terrain features, roads and tracks mounted with Robot Operating System (ROS),
supporting various types of held vehicles, obstacles will eliminate human limitations of space, injury,
and their values, maneuverability and trafficability, fatigue, human logistic needs, heat, visibility,
Important Tactical Grounds, boundaries, gaps, hearing and much more many issues. This will also
heights, weapon siting and coverage, dead save invaluable human lives on frontline during
grounds, field of view and fire, permeability, cover the assault phase of an attack. Such vehicles can be
and concealment of force in built up areas as well redesigned for robust usage, more maneuverability
as in other places for cover from view and fire of and speed in different contingencies of battlefield
direct and indirect weapons. It can also optimize including ruggedness against terrain, obstacle
the selection of siting various weapons in an crossing of every kind, presentation as smaller
area by considering the crest clearance, terrain target and can also fire rapidly and precisely by
and range calculations. After learning, the AI- removing human errors. These elements can prove
empowered system can suggest the most suitable to be a force multiplier in defence and all other
deployment plans which can then be continuously operations equally.
updated during various scenarios being faced
through sensory or human input. Based on the
previous learning and existing data, the AI system
can also suggest maneuverability at some scale
owing to the limitations of road classification,
ground and weather. This can then be utilized to
generate a war environment on maps and simulate
the probability of outcome by exercising different
contingencies under different operations of war.

Robot controlled vehicles, mounted

with Robot Operating System (ROS),
will eliminate human limitations of
space, injury, fatigue, human logistic
needs, heat, visibility, hearing and
many more issues

Application of Reserves. Currently reserves

are launched through manual process on the
report of local commander when part of his force
has been overrun by the enemy. If life sensors
are attached to the bodies of personnel and these
sensors communicate with a system to monitor
their condition, then greater visibility and ease of
decision can be imparted to the higher commander.
This system can then be made intelligent by AI to Modular Advanced Armed Robotic System

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Advantages for Pakistan Air Force This decision can be semi or fully
Pilotless Aircrafts. Currently the auto- automated by an intelligent system to
pilot system in an aircraft can adjust it to fly either auto eject the pilot well in time
on a predestinated path. But it can’t offer when nothing can survive the aircraft,
maneuverability in dogfight encounters with the
enemy aircrafts. Incorporating AI into the system or, to tell pilot to avoid ejection in case
can make it semi/ fully automated manoeuvre the aircraft can safely approach the
system independent of the need of pilot. Since nearest runway
human body limitations don’t allow pilots to
manoeuvre at higher G-force rates which could
otherwise cause onboard medical issues including the readily available information of the weapon
bleeding, blindness, red-eye effect, pressure on specifications installed on that specific type of
brain, thus limiting maneuverability of the aircraft enemy aircraft to engage it at standoff distances; so
design. Introducing AI in its flight computer, does it can do with the Surface to Air Missiles. While
can render it pilotless, thereby eliminating such a pilot may be too busy in engaging the enemy,
limitations. This will also save internal space of the status of various aircraft instruments can be
aircraft and eliminate the need of ejection seat observed and maintained by AI with suggested
mechanism. measures taken by the system and notifying
Air Assets Management. Assets of Pakistan further actions requiring pilot’s attention. This will
Air Force contain tactical as well as strategic save pilot from getting distracted by the issues.
aircrafts which are placed at different bases as per This can auto compute the operational range at
operational needs. AI based system can be used for current speed, fuel and height and can suggest the
placement of these assets on different FOBs as per approachable runs within range.
threat levels, the requirements and support roles Life Saver for Pilots. When an aircraft is
for own forces, available resources, observations hit by a missile or flak, an eye-blinking time
of the enemy’s flying patterns, type, operational in milliseconds is the only and maximum time
capabilities and limitations of own and enemy’s allowed for pilot to take decision of ejection, failing
aircrafts. which might cost him his life. Such decisions are
Aid in Air for Quick Decision Making. Pilots taken by pilots sometimes when it is too late and
have to make quick observations leading to quick the aircraft either bursts and vanishes into thin air
decisions during flying especially in an air-to-air including pilot, or, if it is partially hit, then it might
combat. If the flight computer is aided with AI, it hit the ground soon. This decision can be semi or
can be of great help to the pilot by immediately fully automated by an intelligent system to either
suggesting him the best choices available on auto eject the pilot well in time when nothing can
urgent needs of decision. For example, while survive the aircraft, or, to tell pilot to avoid ejection
approaching an enemy location covered by in case the aircraft can safely approach the nearest
enemy’s radar and facing multiple air threats from runway.
multiple directions, AI based computer can check Air Manoeuvre Learning. “Deep Learning
the current armament store, choose the best suited AI” can be very helpful by learning the patterns
weapon against the enemy’s aircraft as per range of enemy’s flying formations. The system may
who is threatening the most to own aircraft with capture the patterns and composition of enemy’s
maximum hit probability while keeping in view sorties flown across the border from different
airbases to learn the potential dangers including
type and number of aircrafts. This will not only
immensely improve the efficiency of our pilots
in the dogfights but will also reveal the enemy’s
intent and type of formations maneuvering during
any event. Powerful radars capable of looking
beyond the borders or the airborne platforms
especially, Early Warning Airborne &Control
System may be used in this regard. Airbattles
include extensive maneuverability depending
on skills of pilots. Although the advancements in
air-to-air combat technologies like Beyond Visual
Range (BVR) have reduced the scale of dogfights
however, there still exists some room for air
Pakistan’s First Locally Manufactured combat tactics. Latest incidents of air to air stand-
Armed Drone off between Pakistan and India is an example of
active air combat involving some manoeuvre.

154 Green Book 2020

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Right manoeuvre can be learnt be used to predict the metrological and oceanic
through AI by extensive system conditions before conduct of such operations. AI
systems may suggest timings and routes for safe
learning by exercising and recording approach and extraction in such missions.
different manoeuvres under different Oceanography and Route Analysis.
compositions of aircraft formations Submarines have to stay stealth and thus require
including the maneuvers in historical special care to choose their routes and diving
skirmishes depths while keeping in view the conditions of
rough sea conditions. AI enabled sonars and
other systems supported by AI, can be used for
Only the right manoeuvre on the situation so the purpose. These systems will also chalk out the
dictating, can ensure target engagement. This enemy’s predefined routes, moves depths and grey
right manoeuvre can be learnt through AI by areas of both sides.
extensive system learning through exercising and
recording different manoeuvres under different AI based systems can be used to
compositions of aircraft formations including the
maneuvers in historical skirmishes.
predict the metrological and oceanic
conditions before conduct of search
ECM and ECCM Management. Electronic
jamming, anti-jamming and counter- and rescue operations
measurements go side by side during peace and
war. Missiles and special equipment designed for Common Advantages for All Forces
the purpose, target electromagnetic emission sites
specially radars and communication centers. AI Cost Reduction through Automation.
models can be trained to learn about all the methods The operational costs of sophisticated military
of frequency jamming/ scrambling expected from equipment soar too high and are barely affordable
a hostile equipment. Own equipment can then be for the Country owing to the struggling economy.
tuned and fortified to withstand jamming effects. Automation through AI can yield reduction of these
costs thereby reducing burden on the economy.
Advantages for Pakistan Navy For instance, wherever deemed feasible, drones
may be incorporated instead of fighter or bomber
Air Fleet Management. Although currently
aircrafts whose operational and maintenance
there is no Aircraft Carrier held with Pakistan
costs are much higher as compared to drones.
navy however, whenever it is acquired or built
So the USAF has introduced drones to reduce
for Pakistan Navy, it will be a much vital asset for
such costs[4]. Similarly, the US Government has
domination on the region. Its main power rests
collaboratively developed F-35 Joint Strike Fighter
with the fleet of aircrafts which are the real punch
with other countries including Turkey to share the
into the enemy’s face and thus are the reason to
astoundingly huge costs as one unit of this fighter
form the whole Carrier Strike Group including the
costs around a whopping $250 million besides the
aircraft carrier, ships and submarines. Functional
costs of R & D.
and under-maintenance aircrafts on an aircraft
carrier have impacts on naval air operations. To
keep an eye on operational readiness and ensure
maximum availability of these aircrafts, flight
hours, health statistics including chronic issues
associated with some specific tail numbers of
these aircrafts and all other data needs to be
maintained. In case of some critical operations
for air superiority and supremacy, requiring more
strength of aircrafts from nearby approachable
bases can be provided. All this can be done using
AI trained models knowing exactly what types of
how many suitable and functional aircrafts are in
hand within operational radius and how many are
under maintenance. This model will then also be
able to suggest the number of required aircrafts
at particular places including the aircraft carries
itself.
Search and Rescue Operations. These
operations are very critical in nature owing to
the wild nature of the sea. AI based systems can JF-17 Thunder

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

The operational costs of accuracy and quick response required in air threat
sophisticated military equipment soar situations. The indirect firing weapons are more
sensitive to inaccuracies by human limitations.
too high and are barely affordable for Such inaccuracies can be reduced to negligible
the country owing to the struggling levels through intelligent control and robotizing
economy the guns. AI can virtually nullify the need of Gun
Position Officer, gun laying staff and the observer.
Moreover, incorporating self-loading through
magazines via robots will eliminate human
Battle Field Decision Making. Globally,
requirements. Once deployed, such independent-
Decision Support Systems (DSS) with built-in
to-human gun positions can save human lives and
functionalities and analysis tools DSS are being
can keep firing under the enemy’s intense counter
redefined through AI and are substantially
impacting decision making [5]. Armed Forces of
Pakistan have also inducted and self-built such IDSS can literally change the
systems for planning and decision making canvass thinking and planning dimensions
of the battle field. However, Armed Forces needs by removing mistakes of the past
to implement AI models to convert these into IDSS
(Intelligent Decision Support Systems) to augment and improve decision making, hence,
her command and control infrastructure. IDSS improving command and control for
can literally change the thinking and planning commanders at all tiers
dimensions by removing mistakes of the past
and improve decision making, hence, improving bombardment when humans have to halt fire and
command and control for commanders at all take shelter to save their lives. The automated
tiers. However, there is a need to assimilate AI in fire-observation instruments based on machine
Pakistan’s environment through research. learning mounted on APCs or dedicated vehicles,
Precision in Target Recognition. With the can also save precious human lives. The feed from
AI model learning different shapes, sizes, colors, these instruments can also be provided to a remote
patterns and dimensions of targets through observer through secure networks.
different platforms, over a period of time, the Quick Decision Making in Air Defence. The
ground-based targets can be identified with friend ground-based, airborne and naval radars along
or foe segregation by the AI aided system. This with the civil aviation radars can be integrated
system may pass this information to all concerned to develop a Common Operating Picture (COP) of
platforms or may be self-configured to auto fire the Pakistan’s airspace. This, COP can effectively
from the relevant weapons. Smart-2000 is a bomb cover the predefined air-routes, dead grounds and
which uses such AI-based image processing corridors against the normal as well as stealth
techniques for precision. aircrafts owing to coordinated use of multiple
Fire Accuracy through Robotized Guns. radars simultaneously at various locations. All
Firing of weapons specially the mechanical guns these can effectively be managed and covered
involves humans, who may lower the hit probability through AI model learning for different patterns
owing to various human factors including natural of aircrafts using many air corridors covered by
characteristics of sight, heartbeat, breathing and different sensors and hence strengthening air
other movements. The accuracy can be increased defence. Some radars can look deep inside the
by using robotic arms and systems. These enemy’s territory, observing patterns and routines
systems can also be empowered by capability of enemy’s aircrafts. So limited scale operating
of self-decision making through sensory inputs picture of the enemy can also be observed to learn
by AI trained models at the borders, extremely her tactics, strongly and weakly patrolled areas
vulnerable posts, remote locations (like seasonal and flying altitudes. All these integrated into a COP
posts of Siachin where human life is too difficult can be used by AI models to take independent and
to be sustained) and other remote locations in IS better decision for quickest possible response to
areas under SCW. Besides, the surface-to-surface shoot down enemy aircrafts and missiles which is
weapons, surface-to-air weapons especially direly required because of the supersonic cruising
the anti-aircraft guns can also be robotized for speeds of aircrafts and missiles today.

With the AI model learning different shapes, sizes, colours, patterns and
dimensions of targets through different platforms, over a period of time, the ground-
based targets can be identified with friend or foe segregation by the AI aided
system

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Besides, the surface-to-surface in the space. However, if the orbital data of all
weapons, surface-to-air weapons these satellites is known (TLE elements) then
predicting the future locations of footprints of
specially the anti-aircraft guns can satellite instruments can be used to conceal
also be robotized for accuracy and strategic assets during move. AI models can be
quick response required in air threat trained to learn exact timings of satellite coverage,
thus, making robust and concealed move plans
situations to predefined or arbitrary locations. Strategic
weapons are deployed to balance out enemy’s
strategic plans not only to keep the deterrence
Auto Steering Systems. AI based cars are threshold but also to gain significant advantage
becoming common in the developed countries. through potent threat to the enemy with a view
Tesla is a shining name in this regard. Same idea

COP can be used by AI models to to scare away her malicious intentions. These
deployments require thorough calculations owing
take independent and better decision to ranges to targets, enemy’s anti-missile defence
for quickest possible response to shoot shields, stand-off distances from direct and indirect
down enemy aircrafts and missiles weapons, weather and atmospheric calculations
and other factors varying as per launch platforms
can be used in military vehicles to get rid of need including aircrafts and naval assets (submarines
of the driver and driver-related issues i.e. fatigue, and warships). These calculations can be aptly
loss of concentration, natural human needs, performed by an intelligent system deployed at
susceptibility to injury and life threats. Similarly, strategic level for synergetic efforts amongst all
the existing autopilot system in the aircrafts can forces and to keep 2nd strike capability.
be upgraded. Moreover, with full autonomy on Deep Learning in Electronic Warfare.
controls, the AI trained models can be used as a Electronically gained information is a bulk of
trained captain of the warships and submarines data. Such data can be sorted by incorporating
against the odds faced during sea travel. deep learning to not only learn the specific words
AI for Strategic Forces. Move, deployment
and shifting of strategic weapon systems in a
concealed way is the essence of our strategic AI trained models can be used as
forces. This requires subtle and robust plans with a trained captain of the warships and
smooth execution. In this era of satellites, it gets submarines against the odds faced
hard to conceal anything from the instruments during the sea travel

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Mission Shakti: India tests Anti-Satellite Missile

Terrorism Watch and Control. Most of the

Recent attempt of India to destroy a terrorism faced by Pakistan is part of a Hybrid War
satellite through Anti-Satellite weapon sponsored by adversaries to destabilize and sabotage
has put the satellites of regional peace and draw us strangling into an infinitely deep
whirlpool of destruction. The sponsors finance to
countries in danger recruit locals by luring in through financial perks,
by misleading and brainwashing. This dirty money
is routed through terrorist financers either directly
being spoken but also the frequency and hopping or via some third party in another country. These
patterns, encryption algorithms and ciphering complex financial networks need to be trace-routed
patterns to quickly ascertain the true intent of and rooted out to save the innocent lives and efforts
the enemy by matching the communication with of Armed Forces of Pakistan.
on ground movements. Radio interceptors receive
bulk of information at various frequencies from India has as many as nearly
all across the border as well as the SCW areas. hundred satellites of all kinds in the
Timely interpretation, deciphering and decryption
of this coded information and separating it from
space portraying those many targets
“false alarms” can bring really fruitful results. AI with multi-million stakes onboard
system can be devised to learn frequencies and
timings in phase 1, decryption in phase 2, speech Implementing AI at National Level
synthesis, information filtering as per media type
AI in Defence Production. Car frames
of info, weeding out false information and storing
are being designed and evolved in light of
real information to train AI model and finally
aerodynamics and many other factors through AI
channelize this information with respect to various
in the modern countries. So is the case for a variety
aspects including common-to-all channel in phase
of applications requiring design engineering [6].
4 in the figure (opposite).
These applications include automobiles, aircrafts,
AI in Space Warfare. Recent attempt of India vessels, nuclear reactors, building designs and
to destroy a satellite through Anti-Satellite weapon machines. Thus, AI can significantly help in
has put the satellites of regional countries in danger. defence production through intelligent design
While Pakistan was scarcely able to launch her solutions. Defence production is a major resource
first observation satellite, this experiment has put of generating economy in the developed countries.
it in danger. India has as many as nearly hundred There is a need for Pakistan’s defence production
satellites of all kinds in the space portraying those sector to carry out research and develop state-
many targets with multi-million stakes onboard. of-the-art and advanced defence systems not
By using AI and Kepler’s orbital elements, the only to modernize own forces but to support the
position of all those satellites movement patterns suffering economy. The use of AI can enhance the
can be predicted. This predicted position can then production quality by design processing through
be exploited by many ways including through anti- AI. The 3D printers aided by AI, can also be used
satellite weapons. for accurate and rapid development of weapons

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and defence equipment. The airframe design of Climatic Risk Analysis and Management.
the aircraft is a key aspect to achieve the desired Global warming and other changes in climatic
maneuverability and other objectives. Pakistan conditions in the region have been causing
has been developing her own fighter aircrafts (JF-17 disasters including heavy flooding, avalanches
Thunder). But such airframes are mostly manually and even earthquakes. This has also affected
designed by computer aided software. AI can help armed forces as in Gyari incident and many
a lot in designing airframes from concept feasibility others. Such moves of the glaciers bring lots of
to the completion of design while fulfilling the troubles at the military posts by excessive water
objectives. It has the capability to learn from other seepage, post flooding and breakage of bunker
airframes being used and create an own airframe walls. This can even force the shifting of these
design based on deep learning of aerodynamics posts to safe locations. Relocation of whole “Goma
and performance parameters of other airframes. Cantonment” in Siachin, is the broad example
This can also be used to develop stealthier and in this regard. Flooding of cantonments like the
lighter airframes. Jhelum Cantt astride the river bank and many
National Cyber Security. Cyber Security at other places across Pakistan is another example.
micro organization level is important to complete Such damages can be assessed for future and
the security mosaic of a community, city and the controlled using AI trained climatic models not
country. For instance, Army Networks has to be only to assess the damage caused by the natural
secured by Army to secure an asset of the country. calamities but also the purposeful flooding in
So is the case with National Telecom Networks. the rivers flowing through the territories of the
Securing such segments can only ensure the adversary across the border. Fresh water is an
national paradigm of cyber security. Thus, such already scarce commodity which is becoming
segments can be secured using AI based encryption dangerously low and may trigger future battles
algorithms either by self-designing or through thus shaping future strategies. Lately, the water
outsourcing. Security of cyber infrastructure lies shortage has adversely impacted routine life in
with the national organizations. This is not only few Indian cities including Chennai which is one
a sensitive matter but of paramount importance of top contributors of Indian economy through
for business and communications of a country.
Manual configuration and encryption of these
communication lines are prone to information AI can help a lot in designing
pilferage. This can be adequately countered by airframes from concept feasibility to
auto configuration and encryption of wireless and the completion of design while fulfilling
landline, submarine & satellite based networks of
our country through AI trained models. the objectives

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

Baltoro Glacier - Pakistan

automobile production. Most of the water sources ƒƒ Detection of malicious persons can be done
reside in the glaciated terrain of northern areas through face recognition aided by AI to learn
of sub-continent including Siachin valley. These such faces and immediately report such
rivers not only water the crops but also maintain persons when seen by any security cameras
the underground water levels for usage in daily installed at all entry, exit and transit places of
life. Melting of these glaciers at alarmingly high all the cities.
rates, can cause rise in water levels in the rivers for Aid in Military Induction. Military induction
few decades but will eventually reduce the water is carried out through a sophisticated selection
sources. AI models may be trained to learn the process. Currently, the selection is manually
expected water shortfall across the country in the carried out using different tests including ISSB.
future. This process needs to be made more comprehensive
Border Security Through AI. Terrorists have through digitization and incorporation of AI
been infiltrating through Western border to carry based tests for the candidates. This will certainly
out their attacks inside Pakistan specially in KPK improve the induction standards and efficiency of
and Balochistan. Such infiltrations need to be the selection process.
controlled through effective border management
which can be done using AI-enabled technologies Aid in Medical Field
incorporating drones and ground based sensors to Effort Reduction in Causality Manage-
detect, track, inform and handle such infiltration ment. Since future battlefield will be more
activities. This may also save heavy investment of robotized with lesser involvement of humans
wired obstacles and can also cover those remote on the frontline, this will decrease the human
areas like the seasonal posts of Siachin and North causalities in the battlefield, thus, requiring lesser
Western borders where human living becomes causality-evacuation and management.
impossible in winters.
Better Auto Diagnosis and Treatments.
Domestic Intelligence Sanitization. Tech savvy countries like Japan, have started using
Domestic communication intelligence is bulk of AI in their medical diagnosis. AI based computer
data which needs a thorough processing for sorting program can act like a well-trained doctor with an
and sifting to make it as actionable intelligence. experience of hundreds of doctors. This system is
Such data can be sorted by incorporating deep free from forgetting things and can diagnose the
learning for multiple uses as follows:- diseases with much more accuracy as compared
ƒƒ To identify a person who is using any cell phone to humans. Such systems can be used to obliterate
number or landline by voice pattern matching
from existing patterns (learnt through AI)
of suspects or other potentially dangerous AI enabled technologies
persons for the country. AI implemented incorporating drones and ground based
on communication networks, can learn the sensors to detect, track, inform and
specific words being spoken. handle such infiltration activities...?

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AI models can also be trained to envisage and evaluate the deductions of time and
resources by application of different force combinations under different doctrines at
different points of applications in a variety of scenarios

the gaps created due to the poor diagnosis options of various weapons. AI models can also be
leading to wrong treatment and hence medical trained to envisage and evaluate the deductions of
complications. time and resources by application of different force
Production of Better Medicines. AI can be combinations under different doctrines at different
used in statistical analysis of effectiveness and points of applications in a variety of scenarios.
side-effects of various formulas and generations of
medicines in a variety of diseases thus improving AI system is free from forgetting
the quality against the exponentially growing things and can diagnose the diseases
diseases.
with much more accuracy as compared
Precision in Surgeries. Incorporation of to humans
robotics will lead to precise surgeries which will
minimize surgical errors and hence, lesser surgical Struggle for power and regional dominance has
complications. increased after the economic growth opportunities
have enhanced by using cheaper trade routes to
AI in Regional Defence Realm the international markets. CPEC and Gwadar Port
The current Indian Proactive Operations and One Belt One Road (OBOR) projects are the
Doctrine suggests utilization of resources of Holding examples reshaping the future strategies. Securing
Corps to pave way for induction of Theatre Force the projects concerning Pakistan and their allied
Reserves through “seamless fusion”. This effort infrastructure is very important.
will be consolidated by induction of the “Balance
Latest cyber-attack on Iran by USA and
Force” from Eastern Command reserves. Impact
historical ones including “Stuxnet”, ring alarms
can be extended through subtle incorporation of
about evolving generations of warfare in the
AI in the defence sector as described in the start.
region. USA has already been fighting War on
This will not only achieve agility and save time but
terror since long in Afghanistan costing much on
will also increase in aggressive actions through
Pakistan’s side as well. Pakistan has been under
accuracy and precision besides saving costly
continuous trial by evolution of regional as well
resources including the invaluable human lives.
as international war-doctrines and generations
AI based systems can predict the bias of enemy’s
of warfare. Therefore, Pakistan must focus on
intent by revealing her true objective areas and
technological advances like AI as dictated by these
concentrations with calculations of time taken to
doctrines and generations of warfare to steer into
approach the objectives through all possible routes
a secure future.
and achievement of precision through AI models
processing the imagery of satellites and other Media Warfare. On the front of 5th Generation
resources. This information will feed and serve Warfare, print, electronic and social media
our forces specially the strategic forces to decide are playing an active role in propaganda and
where and when to strike. Even this decision Twitterati war by manipulating public opinions on
can be aided by clever AI models to calculate different matters including national security. The
the success and impact ratios for different strike habit of brow-beating by Indian media through

Pakistan performs First Ever Successful

Green
Robotic Book 2020
Surgery 161
in Karachi
 PAKISTAN ARMY

Doctrine dictates the modernization of military

in techno-centric environment to off-balance the
enemy (Pakistan) by causing substantial and
unaffordable damage on multiple fronts including
the non-contact domains such as cyber, space and
information. This will be implied by induction
of AI, quantum computing, nanotechnology,
advanced weapon systems of hypersonic speeds,
drones and big data analytics. This beats the war
drum on multiple fronts for Pakistan. All of these
fronts are required to be analyzed and covered
through comprehensive and dedicated efforts by
all concerned.
Roborder for Border Security. While
facing an alarming issue of migrants coming into
European countries, the EU is developing drones
(Roborder) which will be piloted by AI and will
be protecting the borders [8]. These might carry
light weight weapons for the task. Swarm of such
drones will become part of border security forces
propaganda warfare, is never ending even if their to counter illegal border crossings.
country is utterly beaten. The whole episode of OFFSET Drone Warfare. Offensive Swarm-
Squadron Leader Abhinandan on 27 February Enabled Tactics (OFFSET) programs are being
2019 on Indian media, reveals the same which was evaluated and evolved in the United States
effectively encountered by our ISPR. Thus national sponsored by Department of Defence[9]. The
narrative has to be spoken out loud to clear doubts concept envisages a swarm of drones to attack on the
of the adversary. This narrative needs accurate enemy forces. Controlling a large number of drones
trends and probing in the societies of both
flying at different elevations and speeds in same
countries. The AI can be used to learn different
or multiple directions with hassle-free operation
trends and patterns of the societies. These trends
is a tricky affair which cannot be controlled by
may deduce useful conclusions for application
few individual pilots like the large-scale drones
of force in different dimensions of our society to
including Predator and Global Hawk. This job can
change the public opinion.
be managed through incorporation of AI trained
models for swarm flight controls, formations for
AI can be used to learn different attack, surveillance and reconnaissance, weapons
trends and patterns of the societies. control, obstacle clearance and swarm defence; to
These trends may deduce useful name a few.
conclusions for application of force in Swarming Boat Threats. The future trends
different dimensions of our society to in naval warfare are the swarm of boats attacking
at one fleet from multiple directions [10]. Owing
change the public opinion to too many targets of small scale attack boats to
be handled by the fleet, the lethality of threat is
In South Asia, the social media trend is increased by numerous times. With AI trained for
much more than many other regions playing with the task of engaging multiple threats of such sort,
a variety of fault lines of the society including aided with a combination of heterogeneous, robot
sectarianism, blasphemy, and parochialism. operated, Gentling/ Phalanx CIWC or some other
AI can also be used for internal security threat guns, such threats can quickly be eliminated [11] as
analysis using demographic datasets to effectively the decision to engage target based on distance,
encounter the playing hands of these fault lines speed and severity of threat will be quicker and
and bring peace and harmony in the society. automatic, thereby eliminating such targets with
AI in Future Warfare most suitable weapons in lesser time which is
the most critical requirement in such time-scarce
Military Modernization in Techno-Centric scenario.
Environment. After successfully balancing
the PAO Doctrine through NCWF Doctrine by Artificial Super-Intelligence (ASI). The
Pakistan, the Indian think tanks have conceived computers have started dominating over the
Land Warfare Doctrine (LWD); the follow-up of human jobs in the different fields of life. After a
the Joint Doctrine of Indian Armed Forces (JDIAF) certain time period the computer intelligence will
2017, with exclusive focus on Pakistan [7]. This surpass the limits of human intelligence [12] thus

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gaining a significant advantage over humans. A day will come when the machines
Such Artificial Super Intelligence will redefine
and reshape everything in war and peace. The will be artificially super intelligent and
decades henceforth are crucial in this regard as then humans will be the precious entity
the developments in technology will increase which may be under the command of
exponentially in all fields of life including the the ASI based fighting machines
battlefield. Humans, now commanders of non-
intelligent machines use them wisely as aids to
humans for multiple purposes and try to save these All borders as well as the sea bounds may be
machines being precious and vital for defence of put under surveillance by use of intelligent drones
the country. A day will come when the machines and other AI enabled automated weapons.
will be artificially super intelligent and then
Underwater drones are not so common in
humans will be the precious entity which may
defence area. Such drones may be incorporated to
be under the command of the ASI based fighting
detect, tract and even inflict losses to the enemy
machines.
approaching own boundaries.
Recommendations Joint ventures with allied countries including
Technologies including AI, drone warfare, big Gulf countries may be done in production of
data, quantum computing, nanotechnology and weapons and equipment which will be very
hypersonic weaponry needs research. Research beneficial for Pakistan by sharing costs and will
in such military products will pay dividends for also yield state-of-the-art weapons and equipment.
the Country’s economy as well as for military. Private firms may be promoted to develop
Research center for evolution of such technologies defence products specially based on AI and other
may be established at NUST and other top-notch state-of-the-art technologies to bring innovation
public and private universities. and earn dividends through collaboration.
Need of the hour is to use cheaper defence Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and Northrop
solutions in lieu of costly ones after thorough SWOT Grumman, being private firms are the best
analysis. For instance, wherever feasible, fighter examples of private defence production serving
and aircrafts may be replaced with intelligent the customers around the world and earning huge
armed drones. dividends for USA. This will also fulfill domestic
Since AI enabled technologies and robotics needs of our military by their reliable products at
can save human lives, so such areas need to be affordable prices.
identified where humans can be replaced not only Since India has planned to incorporate
removing human limitations and save human lives latest technologies including AI in the military
but also to enhance performance. so she will have significant advantages in the

Iran claims a known GPS Hack brought down

a US Sentinel Spy Plane

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

battlefield. Apropos, areas of implementation of

India has planned to incorporate
AI and other technologies of future warfare need
to be identified in our current military setup to latest technologies including AI in the
exploit the full potential of these technologies and military so she will have significant
counter the imminent future threats planned by advantages in the battlefield
the adversaries using same technologies.
While current scope of our C4I Directorate is too
restricted to serve the purpose of future warfare, Allied Grid as backbone network connecting
there is a dire need to establish a joint “Cyber different battlefield systems for collaboration.
Warfare Division” within current C4I infrastructure A central repository of information at Army
not only to prepare and withstand against the odds level or joint level may be established aided by
of cyber-attacks but also poise itself to launch a search engine to facilitate personnel about
counter-cyber offensive operations in readily different resources including study materials,
assessed weak areas of the enemies after thorough weaponry and equipment details of own and the
studies, intelligence gathering and analysis. enemy and other resources of importance.
Human and industrial resource development Awareness at all ranks is need of the hour as
in AI is need of the hour to gear up in the race of we are partially aware with latest technological
technology before getting too late. Such resources advancements. Development of commercial AI
can be multiplied by a fission chain, spreading based systems and software solutions can be
the knowledge across the nation through various very fruitful in the IT industry. Dividends can be
national and military platforms. achieved through promotion of AI development
culture in all the IT areas while will help in
An Artificial Neural Network can empowering life of people and the economic status
integrate different elements and of the country.
networks including Army Net at intra AI may be incorporated in audio/ visual
service, inter services, National and pattern recognition for intelligence collection and
Allied Grid as backbone network analysis. This will not only enhance the intelligence
analysis capabilities but will also zero the slippage
connecting different battlefield systems chances of human errors in this process.
for collaboration
Conclusion
Military software houses should adopt AI and It is not merely the fight between forces now but
adapt to their development skills accordingly. the race of technologies and intelligent systems. AI
Software houses of armed forces can collaborate in can prove to be a force multiplier when used in a
this regard or can even launch joint ventures. The combination with any technology, thus creating
other allied software houses including NASCOM, a dilemma amongst the echelons of the enemy.
can also join for their share in the progress. This Since all of the advantages of AI are still being
collaboration may lead to a powerful organization ascertained, apropos, there is a need to harness
which can bring new products in the military and this giant not only for the benefit of armed forces
can also export their products to defence forces of but also for national progress and prosperity.
other countries.
Bibliography
ISPR may use the AI based tools to analyze 1. “28 Best Quotes about Artificial Intelligence”. 2019. Forbes.Com. Accessed
the trends of society and the media to protect June 24 2019. https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2017/07/25/28-bes

the minds of innocent masses from hijacking t-quotes-about-artificial-intelligence/.

by foreign media and safeguard the national 2. “Travelling Salesman Problem”. 2019. En.Wikipedia.Org. Accessed June 11
2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travelling_salesman_problem.
narrative, national integrity and bring harmony.
3. Phillips-Wren, Gloria. (2012). Ai Tools in Decision Making Support Systems:
An Artificial Neural Network can integrate a Review. International Journal on Artificial Intelligence Tools. 21. 10.1142/
S0218213012400052.
different elements and networks including Army
Net at intra service, inter services, National and 4. Rigano, Christopher. “Using Artificial Intelligence to Address Criminal Justice
Needs,” NIJ Journal 280, January 2019, https:// www.nij.gov/journals/280/
Pages/using-artificialintelligence-to-address-criminal-justice-needs.aspx.

5. Cummings, Mary ‘Missy’ L. “Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Warfare.”

Human and industrial resource International Security Department and US and the Americas Programme, Jan
2017: 18.
development in AI is need of the hour 6. Akilan, Kumaran. “Artificially Intelligent Engineers — How AI Will Kill All En-

to gear up in the race of technology gineering Jobs.”. 2017. Medium. Accessed July 21 2019. https://medium.
com/archieai/artificially-intelligent-engineers-how-ai-will-kill-all-engineer-
before getting too late ing-jobs-3fd6dac55a06.

7. Hussain, Yasir. 2019. “Indian’s Pakistan-Specific Land Warfare Doctrine:

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Some people call this AI, but the reality is this

technology will enhance us. So instead of AI,
I think we’ll augment our intelligence
(Ginni Rometty)
An Overview”. 2019. Southasianvoices.Org. Accessed July 13 2019. 10. “Navy Could Use AI to Combat Swarms Of Enemy Boats”. 2019. U.S. DE-
https://southasianvoices.org/indias-pakistan-specific-land-warfare-doc- PARTMENT OF DEFENSE. Accessed June 14 2019. https://www.defense.
trine-an-overview. gov/explore/story/Article/1825907/navy-could-use-ai-to-combat-swarms-of-
enemy-boats/.
8. Campbell, Zach.2019. “Swarms Of Drones, Piloted By Artificial Intelligence,
May Soon Patrol EuropeeanBroders”. The Intercept, Accessed July 23 2019. 11. Laird, Christopher L. 2016. “Heterogeneous Defensive Naval Weapon As-
https://theintercept.com/2019/05/11/drones-artificial-intelligence-europe-rob- signment To Swarming Threats In Real-Time”. Calhoun.Nps.Edu. Accessed
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9. Agency, Defense, and Work Us. 2019. “ Offensive Swarm-Enabled Tactics 12. “What Is Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)? - Definition FromTechopedia”.
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with-us/offensive-swarm-enabled-tactics. com/definition/31619/artificial-superintelligence-asi.

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IMPACT
OF
SOCIAL MEDIA
ON
NATIONAL SECURITY

Brigadier Dr Abdul Rauf Lieutenant Colonel

Muhammad Sharjeel Zareen

Abstract
IT revolution took place about 40 years back, but in recent years social media has added another
dimension to it. Slowly and gradually the IT advancements like hyper-connectivity, big data analytics,
mobile applications, cloud computing and machine learning etc have joined hands to make social media,
an extremely powerful tool. This has become more influential than governments and militaries. Some
of the recent incidents like Arab Spring of 2010, Indian Elections of 2014, BREXIT Referendum and US
Elections of 2016 have shown the might and somewhat true potential of social media. The effects are
wide ranging on almost every aspect of modern day society – National Security is no exception. Strategic
decision makers need to have a thorough understanding of these effects on National Security. This paper,
after having taken a bird-eye view of social media progression, highlights the covert uses of social media,
presents some case studies and proffers some pertinent recommendations.
Keywords: Social Media, Pakistan’s Cyberspace, National Security, Cyber Security, Social Media Intelligence
(SOCMINT)

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T
ill few years back, it would have been Social media has given a new dimension to
difficult to conceive an intelligence propaganda warfare, an essential segment of
agency with billions of unpaid agents hybrid warfare, actively used by our enemies in
working voluntarily across the globe. ‘fifth generation warfare’.1 In physical domain,
This workforce is providing real-time enemies are involved in actions for few hours or few
information in the form of comments, news feed, days, but on social media they are continuously
photos, videos etc from all over the world. This involved in psychological war. Propaganda, hate
information is revealing feelings, likes, dislikes, speech, fake news, misinformation, fake photos,
activities, emotions, psychological and religious fake videos, rumors, fanning the flames of hatred
trends, not only about them but about their during protests and riots are few things which our
families, friends and entire surroundings. This enemies are continuously doing.
is what the social media is doing and most of us We lack basic understanding of working of
either do not know about it or at least not knowing social media and how its inherent vulnerabilities
the real powers of social media and how these can be exploited by hostile states and non-state
powers are being exploited by people with control actors. Social media has access to masses and is
over social media platforms. capable of spreading high volume of information

Categories of Social Media Sites4 & 5

Blogging Blogger, Livejournal. Type pad, Word press
Microblogging Twitter, Yammer, Goggle Buzz
Communication Location Foursquare, Gowalla, Facebook Places
Social Networking Facebook, LinkedIn, MySpace
Aggregation Google, Reddar, Netvibes, Page flakes, iGoggle
Conferencing Adobe Connect, GoTomeeting, Skype
Wikis PBworks, Wetpaint, Wikia
Collaboration Social Bookmarking Delicious, Diigo, BibSonomy
Social Biblighrapy CiteULike, Mendeley
Social News Digg, Reddit, Newsvine
Project Management Bamboo, Basecamp, Huddle
Photographs Flickr, Picasa, SmugMug,
Video Viddler, Vimeo, YouTube
Multimedia Live Streaming Justin.tv, Livestream, Ustream
Presentation Sharing Scribd, Slideshare, Sliderocket
Virtual Works OpenSim, Second life, World of Warcraft

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

Explosive growth in use of social

media has led to emergence of new
1997
venue of intelligence and surveillance  SixDegrees.com
known as Social Media Intelligence 1997
1998  SixDegrees.com
(SOCMINT)
 Moveon.org
1998
at high velocity. Social media, internet and other  Moveon.org
1999
cyber elements have brought new dimensions to LiveJournal
our traditional understanding of national security. 1999 
 LiveJournal
Explosive growth in use of social media has led
to emergence of a new venue of intelligence and 2000
2000  LunarStorm
surveillance known as Social Media Intelligence  LunarStorm
(SOCMINT); various data analytical tools are being
developing to assist SOCMINT. 2001
2001
 Wikipedia
In classic sense, social media are different  Wikipedia
websites and applications to broadcast
information, whereas social networks are groups 2002  Friendster
of computing devices connected together with the  Friendster
purpose of two-way communication to interact.
Social media is just talking, whereas social 2003  Myspace
 Myspace
Hi5
networks deal with talking and listening. However,  Hi5
with passage of time and latest developments in LinkedIn
 LinkedIn
WordPress
social media platforms, boundaries have gone blur
and the two terms are being used interchangeably.  WordPress
Photobucket
Social media uses websites, applications and  Photobucket
other platforms to help social interaction between
2004
2004  Facebook (prototype)
large groups of likeminded people. It allows
 Facebook (prototype)
Orkut
users to interactively communicate and share
ideas, thoughts, information, experiences, posts,  Orkut
Flickr
profiles, news, status, updates, contents, interests,  Flickr
Care2
activities, photos, videos, etc., with other users.  Care2
Yelp
 Yelp
DIGG
Social media participation is growing rapidly
 DIGG
because of the increased use of smart phones,
high-speed mobile internet, improvement in 2005 Classmates
software tools and availability of all of these at  Classmates
 YouTube
YouTube
affordable prices. Interest of young people and
businesses also helped in fast growth of social 2006 Facebook (proper
(proper launch)
launch)
media. Popularity of social media can be guessed
2006  Facebook
 Twitter
Twitter
from facts like there are around 112.3 million blogs,
100 million of videos viewed daily and 60 million 2007  Ibibo
active social network site users.2 The amount of  Ibibo
 Tumblr
time spent online is growing by about 7% each  Tumblr
 FriendFeed
year, the most potential harmful content children  FriendFeed
said they saw online was on Facebook (24%), Academia.edu
2008  Academia.edu
followed by Instagram (12%) and Snapchat (8%) 2008
ResearchGate
 ResearchGate
and Spam emails were the most prolific harmful
content cited by adults (34%) followed by fake 2009
news (25%) and scams (22%).3 2009  Foursquare
 Foursquare
2010  Instagram
2010  Instagram
 Pinterest
Popularity of social media can  Pinterest
be guessed from facts like there are 2011 Google+
2011  Google+
around 112.3 million blogs, 100 million  Pheed
 Pheed
of videos viewed daily and 60 million
active social network site users

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Comparison of Famous Social Media6,7, 8, 9 & 10

Descnption Interaction Value

rn
A Social media platform aimed at ✓ Text, Photo, & Video ✓ Real people (authentic
connecting fnends, families and ✓ Articles /Lmks profile)
commumtles and allow people to ✓ Groups (discussion) ✓ World's largest platform
share what they're most mterested ✓ Pages (outward facmg ✓ Commumty focused
m profiles)
2 41 B1lhon (second quarter 2019) ✓ Live sessions
Facebook
✓ Stones
(smce 2004)
✓ Notes (Long -form

A video shanng platform that

allows people to create, share, and
texts)
•••
✓ Live sessions
. ... • ••
distnbution channel for

[i]e
discover ongmal video content ✓ Comments / Live small & larger creators
1 Billion+ user commentary ahke
✓ Channels (outward
facmg profiles)
Youtube
(smce 2005)
A sonal news aggregation site ✓ Teac, Photo, Video ✓
which rates content based on user ✓ Artlcles/Lmks Reddit is at the forefront of
votes, serves as a platform for ✓ Sub-Reddlts (subiect trendmg onlme content
onlme discussion speofic Highly rated content
� 330 Million+ Users (8oo/o fall under commumties/forum) qmckly spreads to other
Reddlt ages 18-35 years) ✓ sites and platforms

.
(smce 2005) Commumty / meme

•
A real-time shanng platform •• � • •• • •
focused
designed to connect people ✓ users does not have to
around thmgs happenmg m the ✓ Live sess10n mean support, but rather
world (Penscope), Broadcasts mterest and general
317 Million+ Users (even relevance
distnbut10n across age groups) ✓ Orgamc reach via open­
Twitter
discussion
(smce 2006)
• .
A photo & video sharmg app ✓ Photo & Video ✓ Great visual story telling
focused on allowmg people to ✓ Stones ✓ Shanng and fmdmg thmgs
share and connect over then ✓ IGTV (Long-form people are passionate
passions videos) about
� 800 Mllhon + users (ma1onty falls ✓ Live sess10ns
under ages 18-29 years) ✓ Filters
Instagram

..•
(smce 2010)

•
A messagmg app that allows users • I I I I : I .
to create and send short-hved "m the moment"
messages to a specific user ✓ Filters
300 Ml.Ilion+ users (6oo/o fall under ✓ Stones
ages 13-24 years) ✓ Subscnpt10ns

Snapchat
(smce 2011)
Financial Model of Social Media Social Advertising Pages. Social media
service providers also offer creation of social
Social media platforms have their own
advertising pages.
business model and are earning billions of
dollars. Users from almost every country are also
contributing to their income and tax collection.
Advertising. Most of the social media service If something appears to be free,
providers offer advertising options. Option of then you are not the customer but a
targeted ad is also offered but the charges are more. product

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social media platforms might have actually been

launched by US surveillance agencies to collect
user data in a convenient way.
Being a Facebook customer, one is subjected to
US policy and laws instead of the policies and laws
of the native country from where the person belongs
or actually lives. Certain EU countries are now
asking Facebook to keep their user data within their
countries instead of US or elsewhere, so that local
laws could be applied in case of any controversy.
Facebook was fined £500,000 by the Information
Commissioner’s Office (ICO) in the UK; interestingly
that amount Facebook was collecting in revenue
every five and a half minutes in the first quarter of
Sales of Products / Services. Social media 2018. Facebook is also facing a number of lawsuits
service providers also offer corporate solutions in EU under General Data Protection Regulation
including video conferencing and customized (GDPR), a regulation in EU law on data protection
messaging services; some also offer marketing and privacy which was implemented on 25 May
services for businesses. 2018.

Subscription Services. Some social Social Media Benefits

media offer subscription-based services and
memberships. ƒƒ Sharing (upload/download) useful infor-
mation.
Selling / Sharing of User Data. Social media
platforms also sell data of its customers to various ƒƒ Getting opinion on different subjects.
organizations ranging from consulting firms like ƒƒ Entertainment (sharing funny videos /
Cambridge Analytica, to intelligence agencies photos, friendship, relationships, eradicating
like CIA. IQT (In Q Tel) is an investment company loneliness and depression, chatting,
which provides funding to various IT companies commenting).
on behalf of CIA and gets the desired intelligence ƒƒ Socializing (meeting people online, sharing
from them.11 Social media data is collected and common interests).
monetized by the service providers unless users
specifically opt out, which isn’t always possible. ƒƒ Discussion forums (on common topics).
Almost all types of social media sell information of ƒƒ Sharing experiences and expertise (to give or
their users to all types of interested parties, ranging take advice).
from simple companies looking for targeted/ well-
tailored advertisements of their products to social ƒƒ Academic purposes (universities / colleges
media users, to intelligence agencies looking to / schools use it for announcements / news,
gather information/ SOCMINT. students also get advice or discuss various
issues, academic problems with other students
and teachers, establishing virtual class rooms
Surveillance companies have been etc).
actually renamed as social media ƒƒ Communicating with family and friends.
who are collecting user information ƒƒ Playing online games.
and doing surveillance of entire world ƒƒ Keeping oneself up-to-date.
through social media ƒƒ Establishing professional networks
(discussions, collaboration and sharing
Facebook appears to be free, if something professional advancements).
appears to be free that means you are not the
customer but a product. The revenue of Facebook ƒƒ Marketing and advertisements (promoting
is continuously increasing; they earned more business, launch of new products).
than 16 billion USD in just 4th  quarter of 2018. Covert Uses - SOCMINT
NSA whistle-blower Edward Snowden tweeted
in March 2018 that Facebook is a surveillance SOCMINT is a new, complex and inter-
company that sells its users’ personal data. He is disciplinary concept used for gathering of real-
of the opinion that surveillance companies have time information from social media. It is the
been actually renamed as social media, who are process of identification, validation, collection
collecting user information and doing surveillance and analyzing data and information from social
of entire world. This supports the assertion that media using intrusive and non-intrusive methods,

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potential candidates with desired personal,

ideological and financial traits to be exploited.
These people are identified, targeted and
subsequently recruited for spying.
ƒƒ SOCMINT is also a very important segment of
open source intelligence (OSINT) as terrorists,
extremists, separatists and other criminals are
actively using social media.
Extraction of a large amount of data from
social media may turn to be a serious challenge
if the right analytical tools are not used. This
high volume of data thus necessitates the use of
modern sophisticated technologies in the field of
Artificial Intelligence (AI), Data Mining and Big
Data analytics for analysis and prediction.

with the aim of developing products for national

security. Publicly available information is just the
tip of the iceberg. There is much more information
which can be made available through appropriate
authorizations by the owners of social media
platforms, for which they charge a handsome fee.
However, in case of foreign social media platforms,
such authorizations and access are also dependent
upon the relations / agreements existing between
both the countries. SOCMINT is being used for
following purposes:-
ƒƒ Generation of users’ profile and future
predictions.
ƒƒ Allows state agencies to keep a complete
record of online activities of the users.
ƒƒ Being used by states, governments,
intelligence agencies and law enforcement
agencies to collect information on targets of
tactical, operational and strategic interest. US has full access to international
ƒƒ It can also be used to find damage-assessment communication including Internet through a
and post-operation effects of kinetic number of global surveillance alliances with
operations. US in lead role, thus acting as one global entity.
Significant of these alliances include, ‘Five Eyes’,
ƒƒ For espionage; social media profiles are ‘Nine Eyes’, and ‘14 Eyes’.
being monitored by hostile agencies to find
The recent US sanctions against Chinese
telecommunication company ‘Huawei’ and US
pressuring other western countries not to proceed
further even for the contracts already signed like
deployment of 5G in UK and Australia, could be
linked to the company’s unwillingness to give
access to ‘Five Eyes’ surveillance alliance.&
Realizing the power of social media and the
rich information that can be extracted about an
individual from his / her social media accounts,
US State Department is now asking visa applicants
to give details of their social media usernames and
email addresses used in the last five years.
Social Media is also an effective tool being
used for opinion building. Due to its open nature,

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this is equally being exploited by governments as As per Symantec Corporation, criminals

well as hostile agencies to control the minds of are focusing more on social media.
general populace. It is a heaven for crimes of frauds, theft,
Fake accounts can be made on social media to extortion, harassment, cyber bullying and money
spread propaganda and fake news. Facebook says laundering. Frauds are being committed using
spams (unsolicited messages / advertisement)
exploiting human greed or inexperience in
computer technology, leading to spread of
malwares targeting at identity theft or worst.
Theft includes stealing information related to
credit cards, proprietary secrets, trade secrets and
personal information.
Arab Spring (2010)
Arab Spring brought changes in Middle East
and Northern Africa (MENA) region at such a fast
pace and magnitude that overthrew the old-guard
regimes and enforced political concessions. Prior
to Arab Spring, social media was regarded as
time pass activity of young generation. However,
social media emerged as a key player in narrative
it removed 3.39 billion fake accounts from October building and exploitation in any social movement.
2018 to March 2019, twice the number of fraudulent
accounts deleted in the previous six months period.
The fake accounts are roughly a billion more
than the 2.4 billion actual people on Facebook
worldwide, according to the company’s own count.
AI tools can be used to generate sounds, images
and videos which are indistinguishable from real
ones. Certain AI tools are being developed to clone
hand written texts of individuals which could be
really dangerous.
Criminal Use of Social Media
Terrorist organizations are using social
media for propaganda, propagation of extremist
ideologies, exploiting social and religious
fault lines for achieving their hidden motives,
communication, fund raising, operational
coordination and recruitment.

Jasmine movement in Tunisia is known as

ground zero of Arab Spring. Self-emollition of
Mohamed Bouazizi on 17 December 2010, in
retaliation to harassment and suppression by
government officials, triggered a chain reaction of
protests mainly amongst the unemployed youth
and suppressed middle class. These protests
quickly spread through social media, on which
President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali had no control.
Such was the pace of spread of Jasmine movement
that on 14 January 2011, autocratic regime of
President Ben Ali came to an end, after remaining
in power for 23 years.
Change of government fueled the already on-
going pro-democratic movement in Egypt, against
the autocratic government of Hosni Mubarak.
Muslim Brotherhood with assistance of social
media, brought all pro-democratic fractions
together and institutionalized the movement. Civil

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war erupted in the country and ultimately President Indian Elections (2014)
Hosni Mubarak stepped down on 11 February 2011,
after remaining in power for 30 years. Mr Narendra Modi’s victory in Indian elections
leading to his premiership, where his party,
Arab Spring also reached Kingdom of Saudi BJP, secured 282 out of 543 seats, is attributed to
Arabia (KSA). However, in KSA the physical the change in the political alignment of voters
component of Arab Spring was missing, and it only from left to far right, due to Modi’s social media
remained in cyber space. Moreover, Saudi regime effects on masses and other media in India.
instead of suppressing the movement, released More than 40 million was invested by BJP
two economic packages amounting to US$36 on advertising on Facebook. Hate speeches,
Billion and US$ 100 Billion to make the citizens propaganda and fake news similar to the one
comfortable. used by erstwhile Nazi Germany, played a vital
London Riots (2011) role in Indian elections. Clause of Model Code of
Conduct (MCC) of Indian Election Commission
A series of riots erupted in various cities and to ensure fair and free election was bypassed
towns of England between 6 to 11 August 2011. by BJP, as social media is not covered under the
Thousands of people participated in said riots; clause. Hate speeches led to communal violence
looting and arson of massive scale was reported. and mob lynching of minorities, which eventually
Riots were instigated by shooting of Mark Duggan helped BJP in winning the elections using Hindu
by police in Tottenham, London. Police failed to supremacy card.
satisfy the family and friends of deceased Mark
Duggan about legality of their extreme action. A US Presidential Elections (2016)
peaceful protest by his family and close friends was
During US Elections data of about eighty seven
organized on 6 August 2011 to demand justice for
million users was sold by Facebook to Cambridge
the deceased. However, police failed to handle the
Analytica through an application. Cambridge
matter amicably. Thereafter, a fake news of injury

of a 16 year old girl during the protest circulated Analytica influenced the US voters by developing a
on social media and things went out of control, ‘psychological warfare tool’ which helped Donald
resulting into a chain reaction which spread the riots Trump to win the 2016 US Presidential Elections.12
throughout England. Various fake news and rumors Facebook CEO, Mark Zuckerberg testified before
spread on social media thereafter, further ignited the US Congress for five hours in this case. Facebook
already existing racial tension, class discrimination, was found guilty as they were unable to protect
economic crunch and unemployment. Social media the data of their users and allowed an application
was actively used for coordination of riots and loot on Facebook platform which collected user’s
activities. London riots showed that governments data. This application not only collected users’
have inadequate comprehension of the influence information from Facebook data and activities, but
social media can have. also collected users’ data browsing other websites.

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Brexit Referendum (2016) Chinese have realized the

In the month preceding the Brexit vulnerabilities of foreign social media
Referendum, various trends on social media platforms and have developed their
influenced the outcome of the referendum.
These trends were analyzed in detail after the
own indigenous social media platforms
referendum by various research organizations which are available globally and
and various interesting inferences were drawn. providing the same services
Brexit supporters not only were more motivated and
emotional, but they were also using social media
more effectively. Instagram statistics showed that US territory. These companies are providing full
Brexit supporters were not only twice in number access to US intelligence and surveillance agencies
as compare to Bremain activists, but five times to their core servers, where internet traffic using
more active than the others. People supporting EU standard encryption is also available in clear.13
ignored the trends on social media being a toy of There are reports about installing backdoors
young generation, having no connection with real in routers and other C&IT equipment exported
world politics, and left posting on social media; worldwide by US manufacturers. It is rightly
consequently Brexit supporters won. said that ‘surveillance is the business model
Kidnapping of Lieutenant Colonel of the internet’. This situation demands that
every country must effectively safeguard their
Habib Zahir (Retired) cyberspace and Internet data.
The officer made his profile on social media There is a new concept of internet sovereignty
(LinkedIn) and shared his CV on Slide Share or cyber sovereignty where governments are
containing information related to his previous trying to align cyberspace with their national
official employments. Hostile intelligence agency geographical borders. The motivation for such
was looking for some target for abduction initiative is simply to protect the national cyber
using personal information on social media, space and safeguarding cyber boundaries just
in order to divert the attention of international like physical boundaries. If countries do not allow
community from the capture of his serving officer physical intrusion or any criminal entering into
from Pakistan, which was involved in anti-state their area how they can allow any cybercriminal
activities. Said officer appeared as a lucrative to enter into their cyberspace. Moreover, internet
target. Hostile agency created a fake website to services hosted in another country could be denied
entrap the officer into a job. He was lured in by at the time of need. Global internet connectivity is
offering a lucrative job in Nepal, from where he available through submarine cables which could
was kidnapped in April 2017. be cut by hostile forces, leading to denial of internet
Cyber Sovereignty and associated services. Thus to have guaranteed
internet services, local internet services hosted
To have an effective and efficient internet within a country are essential. China, Russia
management we must first fully understand the Australia, UK and some other EU countries are
present working model of internet. Routing of also actively pursuing to develop such internet
internet traffic does not follow ‘physically shortest infrastructure which can work independent of the
path’ but always goes through the ‘cheapest path’, global internet connectivity, if the need arises.
which as per internet design, is mostly through US.
This provides an opportunity for US intelligence China – A Cyber Security Model
agencies to have an effective surveillance Foreign social media including Facebook,
mechanism over the internet. Mostly companies Twitter, YouTube, Instagram or WhatsApp, are
providing internet services are US based with not available in China, yet the country has the
their servers, data and information stored within most active environment for social media. Chinese
have realized the vulnerabilities of foreign social
media platforms and have developed their own
indigenous social media platforms which are
available globally and providing the same services
as any other social media platforms are providing
elsewhere in the world.
China is the world’s second biggest economy
with the largest number of internet users (more
than 800 million with 57.7% penetration),
which is more than double than that of US.
Chinese have developed WeChat, which is a
versatile social media application providing a

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combination of services as available in Facebook, world, but at the same time Chinese users are
Instagram, Skype, Uber, Amazon, and WhatsApp, contributing to Chinese domestic economy instead
with more than 1.08 billion active users as in of US.14 Their domestic social media platforms
August 2018. Tencent QQ (instant messaging are fulfilling their requirements in a much better
app providing gaming, music, movies, blogging, way as these custom-built platforms are designed,
and group chat services, with more than 803.2 modified and upgraded, keeping in view the
million active users as in August 2018, which can customs, culture and needs of Chinese people
be accessed from anywhere in the world, thus where local policies could be easily implemented.15
Chinese users are using these services globally. China has deployed a very effective and
By using Chinese social media platforms not efficient system of internet management and social
only the data of Chinese users is staying within media services to make their cyberspace secure
China and not going into the hands of outside and to keep financial and other benefits from

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internet use within their own economy. Internet 24 years. Instagram is second most popular social
management has not restricted the growth of media with a user base of 6.3 million. Generally,
internet in China in anyway, rather it has helped social media is more popular amongst males as
the domestic companies to grow by developing compared to females.
and using their own services over the internet.
This has also provided an opportunity for Chinese As per 2018 report published by International
IT companies to grow at much higher pace as a Telecommunication Union (ITU), Pakistan is
large domestic market is available to them without ranked 94th out of 155, in Global Cybersecurity
any international competitor. Chinese companies, Index (GCI). This is significantly lower in the
Alibaba and Tencent are among the top ten most- region; India (47), Iran (60), Bangladesh (78) and
valued public tech companies in the world, and Sri Lanka (84).16 According to a study conducted
Meituan Dianping, Baidu, JD.com, NetEase, and by Comparitech, Pakistan was ranked 7th in terms
Xiaomi are in the top thirty. of the countries with the worst cybersecurity.17 Bad
state of affairs is mainly because of missing policies,
Social Media Statistics - Pakistan regulations, laws, institutions (organizational,
Pakistan has a considerably large numbers of legal, technical), research / education / training
users on various social media applications. 18 % and cooperation (national / regional / global).18
of our population (37 million) is active member of Our law enforcement agencies have limited
social media with around 18 % using it through understanding, resources and capabilities to fight
mobile phones (36 million). Most popular social cybercrimes, monitor social media and limited
media in Pakistan is Facebook, with a user base access to management of social media.19 Then,
of 36 million, with majority having age from 18- the magnitude of cybercrimes – due to sheer size
of market – is so huge as compared to limited
quantitative number of NR3C that majority of
cybercrime cases go unheard.20, 21
Potential Social Media Threats to
National Security
Social media is a very powerful tool for
reaching to masses for various good and bad
motives such as opinion building, propaganda,
awareness, cybercrimes etc. If exploited by the
enemies of state, social media has the potential to
become a threat to national security, in following
ways:-

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personal Twitter account. Security organizations

have more strict rules on the subject as their
employees have access to sensitive information
which must not be exposed in any way. In addition
to personal and organizational reputation, sharing
such information may impede future operations
or put life of their colleagues at risk. Hostile
enemy agencies may be collecting open source
intelligence through social media intelligence or
may even be honey trapping the individuals.22
Formulation of Cyber Laws and
Regulations
ƒƒ Close monitoring of sentiments and emotions As per ITU Cyber wellness report for Pakistan,
of general public, especially towards matters the situation is not very encouraging and needs
of national and international significance. significant improvement. There is no national
cybersecurity policy or national cybersecurity
ƒƒ Exploitation of sentiments of general public framework for implementing internationally
by feeding them engineered information, in recognized cybersecurity standards. There is no
order to achieve hidden motives. apparent roadmap for cybersecurity governance,
ƒƒ Keep record of online activities of high- no national agency for cybersecurity, no agency
ranking officials, occupying important posts or framework for certification and accreditation
and exploiting their vulnerabilities / weak of cybersecurity agencies and professionals, no
moments. national CERT (Computer Emergency Response
ƒƒ Molding the opinions of high-ranking officials Team), no standardization program, no framework
in a covert way, in order to affect their decision for cooperation etc. The only significant step in
making process. this area is Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act
(PECA) which was approved in 2016, but it is also
ƒƒ Important tool of espionage, through which under many controversies on account of freedom
information is extracted from targeted of expression and cybersecurity, the real issue has
individual, without his knowledge. moved to the background.
ƒƒ Recruitment of spies after identifying The situation is very alarming as there is a
the personal, ideological and financial need to have an effective strategy and policy at
inclinations / traits of potential candidates the national level.23 All regulations, laws, will be
and communicating with them, in a secure derived from the national policy which is presently
manner, without being detected by law missing. Following initiatives are need of the
enforcement and intelligence agencies. hour:-
ƒƒ Coordination of terrorism and anti-state ƒƒ Formulation of National Cybersecurity Policy.
activities, in a secure manner, without being
detected by law enforcement and intelligence ƒƒ Legislation similar to EU General Data
agencies. Protection Regulation (GDPR).
ƒƒ Interference in various activities of national ƒƒ Establishment of National Cybersecurity
significance, like elections, referendums Authority having comprehensive technical
etc by hostile agencies / countries: opinion infrastructure.
building of masses through social media as ƒƒ Formulation of cyber laws on safe and secure
well as hacking through malwares. use of cyberspace including social media.
ƒƒ Exploitation of religious and ethnic fault lines Enabling Law Enforcement Agencies
of our society in the garb of freedom of speech
by anti-state elements and hostile agencies, to Our law enforcement agency tasked to deal
threaten the national integrity and unity. with cybercrimes doesn’t have the numbers, the
resources or the tools required to deal with these.
Way Forward Worst of all, they need to rely on international
All well-known organizations have very organizations – such as Facebook, Google, Twitter
rightly made policies for their employees on their etc. to solve cases with little support in place.
code of conduct on social media, even privately, We need to equip and upgrade our law
as this may seriously affect the reputation of the enforcement agencies to deal with the complex
organization. In June 2019 a Bank Alfalah employee nature of cybercrimes committed on cyber
was fired for using abusive language on his space and social media. Ministry of Interior, in

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coordination with Ministry of IT&T has to play a Most of internet and social media
major role in this regard. A special cyber wing needs
to be raised in all provincial police departments, service providing companies are US
which should be given legal cover by introducing based, thus provided full access to US
appropriate clauses in the law. intelligence agencies to data of our
Improvement in General Awareness citizens for all sorts of purposes
National narrative needs to reach individuals
in an effective way for which social media can providing companies are US based, thus provide
play a vital role. Social media can be used to full access to US intelligence agencies to data of
counter enemy propaganda, if taken as an our citizens for all sorts of purposes. Moreover,
element of national security and hence, needs in international politics things may change and
institutionalization and deliberate handling at the there is even a possibility for any country to be
national level like other domains. under international sanctions. The availability
of internet and other associated services in this
In online population of  almost 50 million,
scenario may not be guaranteed, unless we have a
the majority is not academically and technically
‘Sovereign Internet’.
sound. Hence, they become easy targets for
fraudsters, scammers, harassers and organized At the moment we are far from this and any
cyber criminals. There is a need to improve the click on any internet site including government
general awareness of citizens about overt and and other sensitive sites actually goes through US.
covert uses of social media. We should aim at an internet model which must
work in the country meeting our domestic needs,
Steps to De-radicalize the Society safeguarding data of our citizens and ensuring
Social media enables people to develop availability even if the international connectivity
associations with extremists and terrorist groups. does not exist for any reason. Achieving ‘Cyber
Some websites in Pakistan inject extremism and Sovereignty’ is essentially required for our national
there’s no reason why we should not counter security. China’s model can be studied in detail
this negative narrative through the same means and may be employed in Pakistan to address the
by promoting de-radicalization. In other words, privacy and security concerns.
social media can be effectively used for peace.
Indigenous Social Media Applications
Establishment of Sovereign Internet There is a dire need to develop indigenous
Most of internet and social media service social media applications, as being done in China
and other countries24. Our own indigenously
developed domestic social media platforms will
give full access to own intelligence agencies to
counter their misuse for propaganda purposes,
opinion building, terrorism and other anti-state
activities. Human rights, freedom of expression,
data protection, privacy and confidentiality will
have to be taken care of by our own agencies
monitoring social media. This has to be done with
responsibility, with minimum errors, without
any possible misuse and within the given legal
framework. The actions of agencies need to be
justified and there has to be a legitimate body that
shall authorize and validate such actions linked to
gathering, processing and use of SOCMINT.
e-Diplomacy
Diplomats can do public diplomacy more
effectively using social media, where the
traditional objectives can be achieved more
efficiently. Public diplomacy using social media
can be used to shape global public opinion in
favour of our country.  It can play an effective role
to counter coercive diplomacy, which is currently
a big challenge. Ministry of Foreign Affairs needs
to train own diplomats to exploit the uses of social
media to achieve our national objectives.

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Conclusion 5. [Online].Available:https://lop.parl.ca/staticfiles/PublicWebsite/Home/Re-
searchPublications/InBriefs/PDF/2010-03-e.pdf.
We must understand that social media is a tool 6. Famous_SM-Sites. [Online]. Available: https://www.telstra.com.au/content/
dam/tcom/seniors/pdf/beginners-social-media-part1.pdf.
that can’t be used effectively without a national 7. J.Clement, “Statista,” 9 August 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.
strategy. Social media is being used by billions com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/.
of people around the world for social interaction, 8. M.A.H.R.T.a.I.W. Falch, “Business Models in Social Networking,” 2009.
9. [Online]. Available: https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/516347-google-says-
entertainment, sharing different contents and youtube-campaign-targeted-hong-kong-protests.
communication; affecting every segment of 10. [Online]. Available: http://www.thegoodlobby.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/
society especially young people. Social Media Social-Media-for-change.pdf.
11. https://cryptome.org/0005/cia-iqt-spies.htm
communities have developed beyond political
12. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/17/us/politics/cambridge-analyti-
and geographical boundaries. These advantages ca-trump-campaign.html
may be overshadowed by the cyber threats, if we 13. hps://www.giswatch.org/en/communications-surveillance/digital-surveillan-
are not careful. Privacy is the main concern so one cett
has to be very careful while giving information 14. [Online].Available:https://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/232768-us-chi-
on social media and must set the privacy settings na-tensions-build-on-cybersecurity.
right. However, to get the real benefits of social 15. [Online].Available:https://topdigital.agency/10-most-popular-social-media-
sites-in-china-2019-updated/.
media, necessary safeguards must be placed at 16. [Online].Available:https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jul/11/face-
national, organizational and personal level. The book-fined-for-data-breaches-in-cambridge-analytica-scandal.
17. [Online].Available:https://www.comparitech.com/blog/vpn-privacy/cyberse-
best solution in the current scenario is to develop curity-by-country/.
and deploy own social media platforms having the 18. [Online].Available:https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Cybersecurity/Pages/glob-
same capabilities as US based platforms and block al-cybersecurity-index.aspx.
19. [Online]. Available: https://propakistani.pk/2018/02/06/state-social-media-cy-
other social media platforms in our country. This ber-crime-pakistan-2018/.
will keep the information of our users with us and 20. [Online]. Available: http://digitalpakistan.pk/pdf/useful-links.pdf.
moreover economy of our own country will benefit 21. [Online]. Available: https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Social_Media/Introduction.
22. Bank_Alfalah_Twitter. [Online]. Available: https://propakistani.pk/2019/06/14/
from online activities of our social media users. controversy-erupts-as-bank-alfalah-fires-employee-for-abusing-a-journalist-
on-twitter/.
23. [Online].Available:http://afyonluoglu.org/PublicWebFiles/strategies/Cyber-
Notes
Wellness/CW-Pakistan.pdf.
1. [Online].Available:https://blogs.arynews.tv/social-media-fifth-generation-war-
24. [Online].Available:https://www.uscpublicdiplomacy.org/blog/realy-dark-side-
fare/+.
facebook.
2. [Online]. Available: https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Social_Media/Introduction.
3. [Online]. Available: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-48447071.
4. Guide_for_researchers. [Online]. Available: http://www.rin.ac.uk/system/files/
attac ments/social_media_guide_for_screen_0.pdf.

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE
AN OVERVIEW

Major Ayaz Rafique

Abstract
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology has traversed through multiple pages of history and still
undergoes through a perpetual process of evolution. Basing upon computer based intelligent brain,
known as “Intelligent Agents”, it contains devices that perceive environment and subsequently
take action in order to maximize envisaged probable goals. This paper will explore the horizon
of AI and its associated tentacles. Ranging from modern digitalized world, AI is the property of
machines, computer programs and systems to perform the intellectual and creative functions with
which mankind has been blessed by the Creator. Aspiration to enable computers to independently
find ways to solve problems, be able to draw conclusions and make decisions has given birth to
the field of AI. Such systems possess learning capability, which assist people to improve their
performance over time. Recent research on AI tools encompasses machine learning, deep learning
and predictive analysis; intended towards increasing the planning, learning, reasoning, thinking
and action taking ability. AI is bringing revolution to the canvas of the world and at the same time
has drastic implications for military arena. Pakistan Army, having adversaries larger in number and
borders besetting non-peaceful neighbours, desperately needs to enhance its capability for which
AI remains one of the top suites and a viable option.
Keywords: AI, Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Predictive Analysis, Intelligent Agents, Automation

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The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of

the human race….It would take off on its own, and re-design itself at
an ever increasing rate. Humans, who are limited by slow biological
evolution, couldn’t compete, and would be superseded

(Stephen Hawking)

“Winning in the decision space is winning in the battle-space”

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 PAKISTAN ARMY

P
otential capability to learn, retain and from the runway of academia. In parallel with
subsequently apply can be defined as computer advancement, AI kept on growing which
“Intelligence”. Measure of intelligence today has been classified into following types:
can be defined as the ability to apply ƒƒ Reactive Machines AI
change. Intelligence differs from
knowledge in the context of appliance; knowledge ƒƒ Limited Memory AI
can be defined as pre-programmed information ƒƒ Theory of Mind AI
to render response against existing/ pre-defined
occurrences. Whereas intelligence on the other ƒƒ Self-aware AI
hand is building capability on the basis of ƒƒ Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)
knowledge to respond on any identical events ƒƒ Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
along with enhancing capability with the passage
of time. ƒƒ Artificial Superhuman Intelligence (ASI)

Figure-1 Types of Artificial Intelligence

Since introduction of IT in the history of Understanding of AI stands incomplete if

mankind, human aspired to infuse its intelligence its appliance & advantages remain obscure. An
behavior into computers and robots in order to envisaged advantage of AI includes increase in
replace humans completely in many walks of life. efficiency, improved precision, swift response and
AI, as it is clearly understood from its caption, elimination of factors leading towards human
it is simulated/ artificial prudence created by errors.
mankind. Intelligent behaviors devised by human Notwithstanding, betterment of AI over
being to enhance the capability of computers Human Intelligence may be debated but precision
may be defined as AI. History of desire to have based consistency attributes more weightages to
AI can be traced back to 1940s and 50s, where AI. It may indeed be true to state that AI possesses
scientists belonging from multiple walks of potential to replace human or may enhance/ boost
life (mathematics, psychology, engineering, its capability/ productivity.
economics and political science) innovated the
idea of an artificial brain, which took off in 1956 Areas of Application
Smart Phones. Smart phones have remarkably
History of desire to have AI can be improved quality of life and the process is still going
on where smart phones loaded with more features
traced back to 1940s and 50s, where hold the potential to revolutionize it more. Smart
scientists belonging from multiple phones with built-in smart assistants are example
walks of life innovated the idea of an of it including portrait mode in the camera, scene
artificial brain, which took off in 1956 detection, mixed and virtual reality elements, and
more. Google I/O 2019, held in US clearly stated
from the runway of academia

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Tesla has reached to the milestone

of having 50,000 cars running in US,
learn and share information among
each other for autonomous decision
and routing

Online Advertisements Works. One of the

biggest users of AI is the online advertisement
industry, which uses AI to not only track user
statistics but also serve us ads based on those
statistics. Online advertisement industry cannot
sustain its existence without AI which today
has earned 250 billion US dollars. Websites
recommending you a product is served by AI.
Navigation & Travel. Every one of us has used
Figure-2 Branches of Artificial Intelligence navigational technology. Suggesting route after
analyzing many factors is an intelligent process,
that upcoming era belongs to AI possessing smart which is done by the brain of AI.
phones. Banking & Finance. Banking is the backbone
Smart Cars. Automobile industry is one of of any industry as each industry is run by economy.
the leading industries in international arena. IT Banking & finance cannot survive without AI as
remains mandatory for earning advancement automated emails, notifications, transaction and
for any industry; same has been realized by monitoring of accounts involve AI.
automobile industry which has upraised itself Smart Home Devices. IoT (Internet of
integrated with IT. Infused with innovative Things) has added a new dimension to the IT
features, cars now aspire to improve prominently world, where every single device is connected and
and the dream car of history is being envisaged as communicates with each other, therefore enabling
future car of today’s world where Tesla has reached home devices to operate in synchronization with
the milestone of having 50,000 cars running in US, each other. Frictionless entry of AI in our house
learn and share information among each other for has taken away many worries from switching on
autonomous decision and routing. This number & lights to controlling of devices through internet
capability is believed to increase exponentially. connectivity
Social Media Feeds. Data although virtual, Security and Surveillance. AI is playing a key
remains one of the most valuable assets today. role in security domain, which cannot be denied
Treasury of data on one side holds undetermined as for humans it is not viable to monitor multiple
value, whereas on other side once processed screens and detect any untoward situation. With
can paint the canvas with obvious findings. technologies like object recognition and facial
Generating results based on demographics of user recognition AI provides better results than humans
and rendering data/ information as per his area of in this domain.
residence, interest, religion etc is an implicit but a
valuable feature of AI. AI today aims to make user Artificial Intelligence: The Future
addicted to itself where every user experiences its Life today has been changed by AI and is
benefits. expected to change more in future. Whether it is
Music & Media Streaming Services. Netflix, about telecom industry, e-commerce, banking etc
Youtube and other websites suggesting content from industry to individual, AI has implicitly dived
of your interest performs processing on backend into all pools.
without letting user know. Credit of this unnoticed Defense Related Aspects. AI has
service goes to AI, which is playing a big role in encompassed all domains of life at international,
that. national and individuals level. Therefore,
Video Games. The video game industry
is probably one of the earliest adopters of AI.
Random level of games and bots based players Frictionless entry of AI in our house
is achievement of AI. Beating an experienced has taken away many worries from
human player in such a dynamic game is a huge
switching on lights to controlling of
achievement for AI.
devices through internet connectivity

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is being cooked in the private sector. Chairman of

Advanced Targeting and Lethality Alibaba has claimed that machine learning and
Automated System (ATLAS) will use AI AI, could lead to a World War III. Notwithstanding
and machine learning to give ground all raised eye brows China’s leadership is striving
combat vehicles autonomous targeting to use AI for military purposes. In this context civil
- military fusion on national strategic level has
capabilities collaborated on multiple projects including The
In 2017, Kalashnikov - Russia’s
advancement in AI, deep-learning, and robotics
have opened new horizon in military world. With largest gun manufacturer - announced
the advent of autonomous weapons systems, that it had developed a fully automated
arm program, robotic soldiers and drones, new combat module based on neural-
pressure is being mounted on all defense forces
of the world. Race of getting AI capable Army
network technologies that enable it to
is pacing slower than nuclear capability race, identify targets and make decisions
but it has persistent effects on the capabilities.
Therefore, all leading Armies of the world have People’s Liberation Army (PLA) that heavily relies
embraced the technology of AI to earn maximum on technology firms and innovative start-ups. In
benefits and superiority over adversaries. addition to this, Tsinghua University launched
the Military-Civil Fusion National Defense Peak
United States. ‘Third Offset Strategy,’ aimed Technologies Laboratory to create “a platform for
to exploit all advantages of AI by stating that future the pursuit of dual-use applications of emerging
will be prepared on the basis of AI. Composite technologies, particularly AI.” Regarding the
team of scientists, strategists, and military experts application of AI to weapons, China is currently
formulated to keep the pace with adversaries. In developing “next generation stealth drones,”
this context, Defense Advanced Research Projects including, for instance, Ziyan’s Blowfish A2
Agency (DARPA) has dedicated 2 billion dollar for model. According to the company, this model
developing next wave of AI technologies. Sequel to “autonomously performs more complex combat
this Advanced Targeting and Lethality Automated missions, including fixed-point timing detection,
System (ATLAS) will use AI and machine learning fixed-range reconnaissance, and targeted precision
to give ground-combat vehicles autonomous strikes.”
targeting capabilities.
Russia. Russia lacks formal AI strategy and
China. Keeping in view the progress of its policy yet it is working towards integrating AI more
adversaries in the field of AI, China also worked on comprehensively. The Foundation for Advanced
a new protocol “to ban the use of fully autonomous Research Projects (the Foundation), which is
lethal weapons systems.” Although China claims equivalent of DARPA, opened the National Center
to negate an AI arms race, however same sentiment for the Development of Technology and Basic
Elements of Robotics in 2015. Russian Government
has also motivated military and civilian scientists
in developing AI technology, which she stated
was crucial for countering “possible threats to the
technological and economic security of Russia.”
In 2017, Kalashnikov - Russia’s largest gun
manufacturer - announced that it had developed a
fully automated combat module based on neural-
network technologies that enable it to identify
targets and make decisions. In January 2019,
reports emerged that Russia was developing an
autonomous drone, which “will be able to take off,
accomplish its mission, and land without human
interference,” though “weapons use will require
human approval.”
United Kingdom. Realizing the importance
of autonomous system and its potential, UK also
desires to earn greater precision and efficiency with
evolving technology. However, it clearly stated that
human will ultimately remain responsible and
this responsibility cannot be shed away therefore
Unveiling of Mikhail Kalashnikov statue in Moscow authority of appliance should remain with human.

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Israel is pioneer in revealing that it to missile systems for handheld missile launcher
has deployed fully automated robots systems as well as larger Naval Strike Missiles.
and self driving military vehicles to Surveillance. Surveillance plays the key role
in any defense system, vigilance, attentiveness
patrol the border with the Palestinian- and robust response primarily defines the quality
governed Gaza Strip of defensive system. Therefore, deliberate effort
must be made for processing visual surveillance
data retrieved from various sources, such as
A 2018 Ministry of Defense report underlines that phone cameras, laptop feeds, video surveillance,
the MoD is pursuing modernization “in areas like planted cameras, UAVs and satellite footage.
AI, machine-learning, man-machine teaming, and However, collecting alone will not serve the
automation to deliver the disruptive effects we purpose, therefore strategic processing must be
need in this regard”. applied to achieve desired results. With AI based
Israel. Israel is pioneer in revealing that it has surveillance system, improved insights can be
deployed fully automated robots and self-driving achieved. Machine learning and computer vision
military vehicles to patrol the border with the for surveillance operations must be employed
Palestinian-governed Gaza Strip. Furthermore, to equate any adversary which enjoys numeric
Israel claims that taking benefits from technology superiority.
should not be banned and discouraged. Moreover,
military awareness requires guided efforts. Being Security. With AI based surveillance,
responsible for IT in Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), perceived benefits can only be obtained if same is
technical unit known as C4I is the Sigma branch, applied on securing the same. Better technique of
whose purpose is “to develop, research, and capturing the data remains of no use, if robust and
implement the latest in AI and advanced software precision based response cannot be generated.
research in order to keep the IDF up to date”. Predicting events based on past data may enhance
The Israeli military deploys weapons with a security capability of military.
considerable degree of autonomy. One of the most Cyber Security. Cyber space being the
relevant examples is the Harpy loitering munition, next and latest area of warfare holds greater
also known as a kamikaze drone: an unmanned requirement of security. High degree of threat to
aerial vehicle that can fly around for a significant sensitive data owns high level of risk associated
length of time to engage ground targets with an with it, therefore prevention of such breaches
explosive warhead. in Pak Army network requires acumen effort. In
this context, machine learning embedded with
Whats in it for the Pakistan Army security products and protocols can be used to
Weapons. Quality of targeting system is identify and predict threats before they can affect
determined on the basis of speed and accuracy. the networks. Keeping in view the amount of data
Weapons based o n machine learning and being preserved in data centers, threat to data holds
computer vision can add new dimension to paramount importance. Therefore, mitigation and
existing armament. Weapons comprising of
computer vision to identify and track target may
achieve targets in strategic manner. Currently,
there are no autonomous weapon platforms that
are being designed to fire the ordnance without
the express approval of a monitoring operator.
One strategic advantage autonomous weapons
may provide over traditionally manned systems is
that the latter are susceptible to human distraction
and needs. With advent of autonomous weapons,
“eyes” of computer can process images and footage
and subsequently target hostile action or natural
terrain. These eyes of computer can be applied

With AI based surveillance system

improved insights can be achieved.
Machine learning and computer vision
for surveillance operations must be
employed to equate adversary which
enjoys numeric superiority Figure-3 Precision Based Autonomous System

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Software can be used to identify various digital situations, such as an email or a

new flash drive, likely to be a trap or tool for implanting malware, and then neutralize
the cyber threat lying in wait for a military operator before the malware can act

contingencies integrated with AI may secure huge Pak Army with integration of eARMS with AI for
amount of data in a proactive manner. Software CODs as a start point.
can be used to identify various digital situations, Autonomous Vehicles. Autonomous vehicles
such as an email or a new flash drive, likely to in Pak Army can have expanded utilization as
be a trap or tool for implanting malware, and Pak Army holds variety of vehicles. For instance,
then neutralize the cyber threat lying in wait for an autonomous truck could travel back and forth
a military operator before the malware can act. from a sand silo, while military laborers continue

Figure-4 AI in Robotics

Similarly, software can be trained to identify creating sandbags. Moreover, an automated

anomalies in the network characteristics due to unmanned/ unattended vehicle with a relatively
previous security intrusions. Once the software simple AI driving algorithm can play the role hover
“learns” what parameter values could come from in large cantonments. Similarly Convoy Active
an active threat, the system can be used to prompt Safety Technology system, CAST is a system which
human security analysts through a dashboard to can be installed on Pak Army vehicles which,
ensure that all new security threats are identified when activated can lock-on to the vehicle ahead of
at the earliest. it and drive itself using machine vision, creating a
Logistics. As the saying goes, “An Army convoy. On the same line, design of the Boeing can
marches on its belly” and management of logistics be enhanced to become an autonomous drone and
is based upon management of information & aircraft for ISR missions.
knowledge. AI has the capability to assist decision
makers on the base of this knowledge to make Conclusion
informed decisions. As logistics forms the basis on It may indeed be true to conclude that scope
which rests the whole structure of Army, therefore, of AI aims at simulating human intelligence into
an efficient, data-backed and maintained military machines. It can be defined as a method by which
equipment system can establish a firm base for machines demonstrate certain aspects of human
logistics management. Improving the logistics of intelligence like learning, reasoning and self-
Pak Army can provide capability, effectiveness correction. Similarly, AI will have a revolutionary
and speed to an officer’s decisions. Knowing impact on warfare. From one prospective it asserts
precisely when that threshold is achieved could that AI will induce a “seismic shift on the field of
allow the commander to give orders to replenish battle” and “fundamentally transform the way
the ordinance. Formulating a system that properly war is waged”. The world has passed from the
delivers a scheduled report to a commander during Industrial Era of warfare into the Information
battle, same can be incorporated in the IT web of Era. Realization of importance of AI advocates

186 Green Book 2020

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that Pak Army specifically should aspire to AI will induce a “seismic shift on the
improve its capability by adapting AI into the field of battle” and “fundamentally
fields of Autonomous Weapons, Surveillance,
Cyber Security, Homeland Security, Logistics and transform the way war is waged”
Autonomous Vehicles to counter potential threats
from relatively larger adversary in order to gain
information superiority, which will be a decisive 7. Rish, Irina. “An empirical study of the naive Bayes classifier.” IJCAI 2001
workshop on empirical methods in artificial intelligence. Vol. 3. No. 22. IBM
wartime advantage, enabling faster and higher- New York, 2001.
quality decisions. 8. Porter, T.; Green, B.: Identifying diabetic patients: a data mining approach. In:
Americas Conference on Information Systems (2009).
Notes 9. Veropoulos, Konstantinos, Colin Campbell, and Nello Cristianini. “Controlling
the sensitivity of support vector machines.” Proceedings of the international
1. Y. Wang, W.-d. Cai, and P.-c. Wei, “A deep learning approach for detect-ing joint conference on AI. 1999.
malicious javascript code,” Security and Communication Networks,2016.
10. Chen, A.H.; Huang, S.Y.; Hong, P.S.; Cheng, C.H.; Lin, E.J.: HDPS: Heart
2. LeCun, Y., Bengio, Y. & Hinton, G. Deep learning. Nature 521, 436–444 disease prediction system. In: Computing in Cardiology, 2011, pp. 557–560.
(2015). IEEE (2011).
3. Y. Wang, W.-d. Cai, and P.-c. Wei, “A deep learning approach for detect-ing 11. https://www.science.gov/topicpages/c/cyber+attack+dataset.html
malicious javascript code,” Security and Communication Networks,2016.
12. Yousafi-Azer. Mahmood et al. “Autoencoder-based Feature Learning for Cy-
4. Harun, Muhammad, et al. “A short review on Applications of Deep learning ber Security Applications”.
for Cyber security”.
13. https://www.itgovernance.co.uk/what-is-cybersecurity.
5. Cottle, Mike, et al. “Transforming Health Care Through Big Data Strategies
for leveraging big data in the health care industry.” Institute for Health Tech- 14. W. Huang and J. W. Stokes, “Mtnet: a multi-task neural network for dy-nam-
nology Transformation, http://ihealthtran. com/big-data-in-healthcare (2013). ic malware classification,” in Detection of Intrusions and Malware,and Vul-
nerability Assessment: 13th International Conference, DIMVA2016, San
6. Huang, Cheng-Lung, and Chieh-Jen Wang. “A GA-based feature selection Sebasti´an, Spain, July 7-8, 2016, Proceedings. Springer,2016, pp.
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with applications 31.2 (2006): 231-240.

Green Book 2020 187