Lecture
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Prepared by Dr. NGUYEN Ngoc Vinh
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6. The human population and its impact?
1. How many people can the earth support?
2. What factors influence the size of the human population?
3. How does a population’s age structure affect its growth or
decline?
4. How can we slow human population growth?
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6.1. How many people can the earth support?
Concept 6.1.
We do not know how long we can continue increasing the
earth’s carrying capacity for humans without seriously
degrading the life-support system for humans and many
other species.
Human Population Growth Continues
but It Is Unevenly Distributed
Ø The impact on natural capital of rising human populations raises the
question
– How long can the human population keep growing?
Ø The human population grew slowly for most of human history, but
in the last 200 years, rapid growth has taken place
Ø Three major factors contributing to exponential growth
– More people are fed with modern agriculture
– Technology has helped humans migrate to and live in almost all
of the planet’s climate zones and habitats
– Control of infectious diseases (Sanitation systems, Antibiotics,
Vaccines)
decreased death rates and increased birth rates
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Human Population Growth Continues
but It Is Unevenly Distributed
Figure 1-1 Exponential
growth: the J-shaped
curve of past
exponential world
population growth,
with projections to
2100 showing
possible population
stabilization with the
J-shaped curve of
growth changing to
an S-shaped curve.
(Data from the WB
and UN) 5
Population timeline, 10.000 B.C. - 2042
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Human population growth continues
but it is unevenly distributed
Ø Since 1960, the human population growth rate has slowed,
but the population is still growing at exponential rate – 1.22%
annually (82 million add in 2008, or 225.000/day
Ø Human population is unevenly distributed globally
– In 2008, 1.2 million added in developed countries (i.e. GR,
0.15 annually)
– 80.8 million added to developing countries (i.e., GR, 1.5%
annually)
Ø Increasingly people are moving to urban areas – by 2050, 2/3
will live in cities
Human population growth continues
but it is unevenly distributed
Figure 6-2 Global
connections: UN world
population
projections, assuming
that by 2050 women
will have an average
of 2.5 children (high),
2.0 children (medium),
or 1.5 children (low).
The most likely
projection is the
medium one—9.3
billion by 2050. (Data
from United Nations).
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Human population growth continues
but it is unevenly distributed
Ø In this century, J-shaped growth will shift to logistic S-shaped
because of various factors that limit growth.
Ø How many people can the earth support indefinitely?
– Some say 2 billion
– Others, 30 billion
– With current food production, only 10 billion.
Ø Perhaps a better question: what is the optimum sustainable
population?
- Cultural carrying capacity – optimum level that would
allow most to live in reasonable comfort and freedom
without impairing the ability of the planet to sustain future
generations. 9
Science focus: How long can the
human population keep growing?
Ø Humans have altered 83% of the earth’s land surface with the
help of technology to meet our growing needs and wants.
Ø Can the human population grow indefinitely?
– Studies of other species show that no pop can grow
indefinitely.
– How long we can continue to increase earth’s carrying
capacity by sidestepping many factors that sooner or later
limit the growth of any population?
Ø Thomas Malthut and population growth: 1798
Ø No one knows how close we are to environmental limits.
- Mounting evidence suggests that we are degrading the
natural capital that keep us and other species alive and
supports our economies 10
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Natural capital degradation
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6.2. What factors influence the size
of the human population?
Concept 6.2A. Population size increases because of births and
immigration and decreases through deaths and emigration.
Concept 6.2B. The average number of children born to women
in a population (total fertility rate) is the key factor that
determines population size.
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The human population can grow,
decline, or remain fairly stable
Ø Human populations of countries and cities grow or decline
through the interplay of three factors: births (fertility),
deaths (mortality), migration.
Ø Population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths +
emigration)
Ø Crude birth rate (CBR) – the number of live births per 1000
people in a population in a given year.
Ø Crude death rate (CDR) – number of deaths per 1000 people in
a population in a given year.
Ø Fertility rate – The average number of children born to
women is the key factor in determining population size
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The human population can grow,
decline, or remain fairly stable
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Women are having fewer babies but not few
enough to stabilize the world’s population
Two types of fertility rates affect a country population size and growth rate
are:
Ø Replacement – level fertility rate – the average number of children that
couples in a population must bear to replace themselves.
- 2.1 in developed countries, as high as 2.5 in some developing coutries
- If all couples had an average of only 2.1 children, they would not be
contributing to pop frowth.
- But if all of today’s girl children also have 2.1 children, the world’s pop
would continue to grow for 50 more years
Ø Total fertility rate (TFR) – the average number of children born to
women in a population during their reproductivity years
- 1.6 in developed countries (down from 2.5 in 1950)
- 2.8 in developing countries (down from 6.5 in 1950)
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Several factors affect birth/fertility rates
Ø Children as part of the labor force
Ø Cost of raising and educating children
Ø Availability of private and public pension systems
Ø More family planning in urban areas
Ø educational and employment opportunities available for women.
Ø infant mortality rate – the number of children per 1,000 live
births who die before one year of age
Ø Average age of a woman at birth of first child.
Ø availability of legal abortions.
Ø availability of reliable birth control methods
Ø Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms
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Several factors affect death rates
Over the last 100 years, the human population grew because
of reduced death rates. Two useful indicators of the overall
health of people in a country or region:
Ø Life expectancy – Average number of years a newborn may
expect to live.
- Globally, increased from 48 to 69 from 1955 to 2008.
- In US, same years, 47 to 78.
- In poorest countries, currently 49 or less.
Ø Infant mortality rates – defined above.
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Several factors affect death rates
Ø Why are people living longer and fewer infants dying?
- Increased food supply and distribution
- Better nutrition.
- Medical advances
- Improved sanitation
- Safer water supplies.
Ø More is spent per person in US on healthcare than in any other
countries, yet 41 other countries have longer life expectancies,
reason?
- 45 million Americans lack health insurance
- US has one of the world’s higest obesity rates
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Several factors affect death rates
Ø Infant mortality, viwed as one of the best indicators of a
societies quality of life because it reflects a country’s
general levelof nutrition and health care.
Ø US infant mortality rate high due to:
- Inadequate health care for poor women during
pregnancy and their infants
- Drug addiction among pregnant women.
- High birth rate among teenagers
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The Population Size Can Be Affected by
Immigration and Emigration
Ø The third factor in population change is migration: the movement
of people into and out of specific geographic areas.
Ø Why migrate?
- Seeking jobs and economic improvement
- Religious freedom, political freedom
- Ethnic conflicts and wars
- Environmental refugees - those who emigrate because of
famine, drought, soil erosion or other environmental
degradation
• 25 million in 2005 and 50 million in 2010 (?)
• In a warmer planet, could soar to 250 million before end of
century
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6.3. How does a population’s age
structure affect its growth or decline?
Concept 6.3.
The numbers of males and females in young, middle, and older
age groups determine how fast a population grows or declines.
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Populations made up mostly
of young people can grow rapidly
Age structure categories – the distribution of males and
females among age groups in a population
- Prereproductive ages
- Reproductive ages
- Postreproductive ages
- Demographers create age – structure diagrams for
populations to determine whether the population is
increasing or decreasing
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Generalized population age structure diagrams for countries with rapid (1.5–
3%), slow (0.3–1.4%), zero (0–0.2%), and negative (declining) population
growth rates. A population with a large proportion of its people in the
prereproductive age group (far left) has a large potential for rapid
population growth.
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Populations made up mostly
of young people can grow rapidly
What is one of the world’s most important population statistic?
Ø Nearly 28% of the people on the planet were under 15 year
old in 2008
- That’s 1.9 billion that will move into their prime
reproductive years.
- In developing countries: 30% (41% in Africa)
- 17% in developed countries (20% in the USA and 16% in
Europe)
Ø These differences in population age structure between
developed and developing countries will be shown in the
next. 24
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Global outlook: population structure by age and
sex in developing countries and developed countries, 2006. Question: If all
girls under 15 had only one child during their life- times, how do you think
these structures would change over time? (Data from United Nations
Population Division and Population Reference Bureau)
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We Can Use Age-Structure Information to
Make Population and Economic Projections
Ø Changes in a country’s age structure have long – lasting economic
and social impacts.
Ø The baby boom, 1946 – 1964 added 79 million people.
- Over time this group looks like a bulge moving up though the
country’s age structure (next slide)
- Baby boomers make up almost half of all adult Americans
• Dominate the population’s demand for goods and services
• Major influence on who gets elected and what laws are
passed
• After 2011, number of older Americans ≥65 years will
increase from about 13% to 25% by 2043. 26
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Tracking the baby-boom generation in the United States. U.S. population by
age and sex, 1955, 1985, 2015, and 2035 (projected). See an animation based
on this figure at CengageNOW. (Data from U.S. Census Bureau)
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Populations Made Up Mostly of
Older People Can Decline Rapidly
Ø As the percentage of people age 65 or older increases in a
population, that population will decline
Ø Slow decline
- Its harmful effects usually can be managed.
Ø Rapid decline
- Several economic and social problems
• Puts severe strain on goverment budgets because these
individuals consume an increasingly larger share of
medical care, social security funds, and other costly
public services, which are funded by a decreasing
number of working tax payers.
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Populations Made Up Mostly of
Older People Can Decline Rapidly
Japan: highest percentage of people over 65
Ø With declining population, few adults are working and
paying taxes
Ø Younger people have to support the increasing population
of those over 65
Ø Japan could experience economic difficulties in the future
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Some problems with rapid
population decline
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Populations Can Decline from a Rising
Death Rate: The AIDS Tragedy
Ø A large number of deaths from AIDS can disrupt a country’s
social and economic structure by removing significant
numbers of young adults from its age structure.
- 25 million kiiled by 2008
- Loss of most productive workers and trained personnel
- Sharp drop in life expectancy
Ø International community called upon to
- Reduce the spread of HIV through education and health
care
- Financial assistance and volunteers to help compensate
for the missing young – adult generation.
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6.4. How can we slow human
population growth?
Concept 6.4.
Experience indicates that the most effective ways to slow
human population growth are to encourage family planning, to
reduce poverty, and to elevate the status of women.
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As countries develop, their populations
tend to grow more slowly
Demographic transition
Ø Hypothesis developed by examining birth and death rates in 19th
century western Europe.
Ø As countries industrialize and develop economically, per capita
income rises, poverty declines, and populations grow more slowly.
Ø This happens in four stages:
– Preindustrial
– Transitional
– Industrial
– Postindustrial
Modern tech and family planning in developing countries
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As countries develop, their populations
tend to grow more slowly
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Bureau)
Nations Population Division and Population Reference
structures would change over time? (Data from United
during their life- times, how do you think these
2006. Question: If all girls under 15 had only one child
sex in developing countries and developed countries,
Global outlook: population structure by age and
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As countries develop, their populations
tend to grow more slowly
Factors that hinder demographic transition
Ø Population growth to rapid, outpaces economic growth and
overwhelms local life - support systems.
Ø Keep population at stage 2 – demographic trap
Ø HIV/AIDS may take countries back to stage 1
Ø Other factors:
– Shortages of scientists and engineers
– Shortages of skilled workers
– Insufficient financial capital
– Large debts to developed countries
– Decreased economic assistance from developed countries
since 1985 36
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Planning for babies works
Ø Family planning provides educational and clinical services
that help couples choose how many children to have and
when to have them
Ø provide information on birth spacing, birth control, and
health care for pregnant women and infants.
Ø A major factor in deducing the number of birth throughout
most of the world.
– Responsible for a 55% drop in TFRs in developing
countries.
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Planning for babies works
Ø Despite success in many developing countries in reducing TFRs
- 42% of all pregnancies in are unplanned, 26% end in abortion.
- An estimated 201 million couples want to limit the number and
determine the spacing of their children, but lack access to
family planning services.
- Meeting such needs would, annually
• Prevent 52 million unwanted pregnancies
• 22 million induced abortions
• 1.4 million infant deaths
• 142.000 pregnancy – related deaths
Ø Analysts call for an expansion of FP programs to include:
teenagers, sexually active unmarried women and men.
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Promoting economic development
can stabilize a population
Empowerment of women tends to slow population growth
Ø Studies show that women tend to have fewer children
(stabilizing populations, reducing poverty and minimizing
environmental impact) if they are:
- Educated
- Hold a paying job outside the home
- Live in societies where their human rights are not
suppressed
Ø Some promote family planning
- Access to education and clinical services enables couples
to chose how many children they will have 39
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Empowering Women Can Slow
Population Growth
Ø In areas of Africa, Latin America, and Asia, women do
- Almost all domestic work and child care for little or no pay
- 60 – 80% of work associated with growing food, and
gathering wood and animal dung for use as fuel and for
hauling water.
- For poor women, the only holiday is when you are asleep
Ø Sons more valued than daughters.
- Many women in the developing world are trapped in
poverty by illiteracy, poor health and unwanted fertility. All
these contribute to environmental degradation and
tighten the grip of poverty. 40
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Case study: slowing population
growth in China: The one-child policy
Ø Has made impressive effort to feed its people and control its population
- In 1960, established most extensive, intrusive and strict pop control
• Only alternative to mass starvation
- CBR cut in half and TFR dropped from 5.7 to 1.6.
- Despite effort, population will peak about 1.46 billion by 2033
Ø Policies that encourage fewer children.
- Discourages premarital sex.
- Urges delay of marriage and limit families to one child
- Married couples who pledge to have no more than one child
• More food, larger pensions, free school tuition and preferential
employment opportunities for their child
- Provide couples with free sterilization, contraceptives and abortion
Ø Gender imbalance 41
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Case study: slowing population
growth in China: The one-child policy
Ø World’s fastest growing economy
- But an aging population
- Has environmental problems that could ultimately limit economic
growth
• 19% if world’s pop, but only 7% of world’s freshwater and cropland, 4%
of its forests, an 2% of its oil.
• Only 15% of its land protected on paper
- Only 29% of pop has access to adequate sanitation
- In 2005, China deputy minister said: “Our raw materials are scarce, we
don’t have enough land, and our pop is constantly growing. Half of our
water in our 7 largest rivers is completely useless. One-third of the urban
pop is breathing polluted air"
Ø As more people move into the middle–class, per capita consumption
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increases .
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Case study: slowing population growth in India
Five decades of attempting to control pop has had only modest
success.
Ø In 1952, pop size was 400 million; 2008, 1.1. billion
Ø In 2015, will be most populous country, by 2050, projections
estimate 1.76 billion.
Ø Even though Indian goverment provides information on the
advantages of small families and made family planning available
throughout the country.
• TFR currently at 2.8.
• 90% of couples are aware of at least one method of birth
control, only 48% use one.
Ø Population control: gender bias 43
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Case study: slowing population growth in India
Ø Poverty
• 82% of rural pop lack adequate sanitation.
• 80% of its people struggling to live on less than $2/day.
• Malnutrition suffered by 40% of pop and 50% of children.
Ø Environmental problems
• 17% of world’s people, only 2.3% of world’s land resources and
2% forests.
• Half cropland degraded from erosion and overgrazing
• 2/3 of water seriously polluted
• Many cities suffer from serious pollution.
• Huge and growing middle class increasing per capita ecological
footprint 44
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6.5 What Are the Major Urban Resource and
Environmental Problems?
Ø Cities use high levels of resources resulting in waste,
pollution and poverty.
Ø Most cities are unsustainable.
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Population experts see important urban trends
Ø Urban areas grow by natural increase and by migration,
mostly from rural areas
Ø Trends in urban population dynamics
– The percentage of people living in urban areas will
continue to increase
– The size and number of urban regions is increasing
exponentially
– Poverty is becoming increasingly urbanized (typically in
less-developed countries)
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Why are people moving to cities?
Ø Every day, about 200,000 more people become urban
dwellers
– Rural people come to cities in search of better jobs,
living conditions, education, food, and health care
– Some rural people are driven to urban areas by famine,
deteriorating environmental conditions, and war
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Global Outlook: Megacities
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Urban Sprawl Gobbles Up the Countryside
Ø Shopping malls and parking lots replace farmer’s fields
Ø Urban sprawl:
– Is the product of ample affordable land, automobile use,
federal and state funding of highways, and inadequate
urban planning
– Contributes to environmental problems and natural
capital degradation
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Urbanization Has Advantages
Ø Cities are centers of economic development, innovation,
education, technological advance, social and cultural
diversity, and job markets
Ø People who live in urban areas live longer, have better
health care and education
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Urbanization Has Advantages and disadvantages
Advantages
Ø Cities are centers of economic development, innovation,
education, technological advance, social and cultural
diversity, and job markets
Ø People who live in urban areas live longer, have better
health care and education
Disadvantages
Ø Unsustainable
Ø Cities lack vegetation, have water problems, concentrate
pollution and health problems, produce noise pollution, and
affect local climate.
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Population Experts See Important Urban Trends
Life is a desperate struggle for the urban poor in less-
developed countries
– Crowded into slums or live in squatter settlements and
shantytowns at the edges of cities
– Lack clean water, proper food, plumbing, and electricity
– Live in areas of high pollution and/or in environments
prone to floods and earthquakes
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6.6 How Does Transportation Affect Urban
Environmental Impacts?
Concept 6.6.
A combination of plentiful land, inexpensive fuel, and
expanding networks of highways in some countries has
resulted in dispersed cities whose residents depend on motor
vehicles for most transportation.
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6.6 How Does Transportation Affect Urban
Environmental Impacts?
Widely disbursed urban areas in some countries create larger
ecological footprints because the population depends on
motor vehicles for transportation
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Thank you for your attention
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