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STAT 328: Probabilities & Statistics: Lecture-5

This document discusses key concepts in probability and statistics including: 1) Basic concepts such as sample space, events, counting techniques, probability, conditional probability, independence, and Bayes' rule are reviewed. 2) The probability-additive rule is explained - the probability of an event represented as a union of two events or complement is the sum of the individual probabilities minus their intersection. 3) Conditional probability is the probability of an event B given that event A occurred. The product rule states that the probability of two independent events both occurring is the product of their individual probabilities.

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emieel reegis
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261 views28 pages

STAT 328: Probabilities & Statistics: Lecture-5

This document discusses key concepts in probability and statistics including: 1) Basic concepts such as sample space, events, counting techniques, probability, conditional probability, independence, and Bayes' rule are reviewed. 2) The probability-additive rule is explained - the probability of an event represented as a union of two events or complement is the sum of the individual probabilities minus their intersection. 3) Conditional probability is the probability of an event B given that event A occurred. The product rule states that the probability of two independent events both occurring is the product of their individual probabilities.

Uploaded by

emieel reegis
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

STAT 328: Probabilities & Statistics

Lecture-5

Dr.Omar Alrumayh [email protected]

1
BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY &
STATISTICS, BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS
(TOPIC-1)

2
Recap!
• Last Lectures we discussed:
• Sample space
• Events
• Counting techniques
• Today, we are going to discuss the following:
• Review on Sample Space, Multiplication, Permutation, and Combination.
• Probability of an event
• Conditional Probability
• Independence, and the product rule
• Bayes’ Rule

3
Probability

4
Probability

5
Probability

6
Probability

The number of cards in 52


7
Probability

8
Probability

SOLUTION:

9
Probability-Additive Rule
• Often it is easiest to calculate the probability of some event from
known probabilities of other events.
• Event in question can be represented as the union of two other
events or as the complement of some event.

10
Probability-Additive Rule

11
Probability-Additive Rule

12
Probability-Additive Rule

13
Probability-Additive Rule: Example

14
Probability-Additive Rule: Example

15
Probability-Additive Rule: Example

16
Probability-Additive Rule

• Theorem 2.7 and its three corollaries should help the reader gain more insight into probability
and its interpretation.
• Corollaries 2.1 and 2.2 are dealing with the probability of occurrence of at least one of a number
of events, no two of which can occur simultaneously.
• The probability that at least one occurs is the sum of the probabilities of occurrence of the
individual events.
• The third corollary simply states that the highest value of a probability (unity) is assigned to the
entire sample space S.

17
Probability-Additive Rule: Example

18
Probability-Additive Rule: Example

19
Conditional Probability
• The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that some event A has occurred is called
a conditional probability and is denoted by P(B|A).

P(B|A): the probability of B, given A


20
Conditional Probability
• As an additional illustration, suppose that our sample space S is the population of adults in a small town who have completed
the requirements for a college degree.
• We shall categorize them according to gender and employment status. The data are given in Table 2.1.
• Example:

21
Conditional Probability

22
Conditional Probability
• Example : One is given the information that the flight did not depart on time. Armed with this additional information, one can
calculate the more pertinent probability P(A|D!), that is, the probability that it arrives on time, given that it did not depart on
time.
• Answer:

• As a result, the probability of an on-time arrival is diminished severely in the presence of the additional information.

23
Conditional Probability

24
Independent Events
• Example : consider an experiment in which 2 cards are drawn in succession from an ordinary deck, with replacement. The
events are defined as:
• A: the first card is an ace,
• B: the second card is a spade.
• Answer:

• In other words, the occurrence of B had no impact on the odds of occurrence of A. Here the occurrence of A is independent of
the occurrence of B.

25
The Product Rule, or the Multiplicative Rule

• The probability that two events will both occur.

26
The Product Rule, or the Multiplicative Rule

27
The Product Rule, or the Multiplicative Rule

28

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