Anderson Serangoon Junior College

2023 JC2 H1 Geography

Post-Prelims Timed Practice (Essays Answer Scheme)

Q2a Explain why vulnerability to the effects of Climate Change varies across space. [9]

Things to note:
• ‘vulnerability’: Content of the question – refers to the propensity for a country to be
negatively impacted by climate change (factors include exposure, susceptibility, and
adaptive capacity)
• ‘effects of climate change’: Content of the question – impacts on human activities
• ‘varies across space’: Context of the question – refers to the variation in contextual
factors across different places/countries/regions
• Response should highlight the geographical unevenness of vulnerability to effects
of climate change due to both environmental (physical) variations as well as social,
economic and political (i.e. human) inequality across the globe

Indicative Content:
Explaining the concept of vulnerability:
Vulnerability to climate change refers to the propensity for a country (or region or area)
to be negatively impacted by climate change. Vulnerability can come in various forms:
physical (environmental), social, economic, and political. Generally the conceptual idea of
vulnerability can be understood by:

Exposure x Susceptibility
Vulnerability =
Adaptive Capacity

• Exposure: Refers to the extent of climate stress experienced. Exposure can be

defined as the degree, duration and/or extent in which a country is in contact with, or
subject to the stresses of climate change.
• Susceptibility: Reflects the inability of individuals, groups or the physical or socio-
economic system to withstand the impact of the hazard.
• Coping or Adaptive capacity: This refers to the ability to cope with or adapt to hazard
stress. It is the product of planned preparation, spontaneous adjustments and relief and
reconstruction made in response to the hazard.

Physical/environmental factors – in general, affects degree of exposure

• Impoverished groups living in environments of poor quality – being
economically impoverished, adaptive capacity is relatively low. Living in
environments of low quality implies higher degree of exposure
▪ Globally, the poor are often concentrated in environments that are ‘inherently’
poor – e.g. 40% of the population in sub-Saharan Africa and 25% of people in
Asia live in fragile lands that are arid, infertile and have slope constraints (Elliot,
2013).
▪ These areas require a high level of management and investment in order to be
safe for human inhabitation and development.
▪ However, the global poor tend not to have sufficient economic ability to invest in
land cover conversion. Hence, they have no choice but to live in less inhabitable
 Anderson Serangoon Junior College
2023 JC2 H1 Geography
Post-Prelims Timed Practice (Essays Answer Scheme)
environmental conditions – such as arid or semi-arid lands where water is scarce
and they will have to travel long distances for water resources, and where the
soil is unsuitable for agriculture and food has to be transported from faraway
sources.
▪ Living in environmentally poor conditions means being more exposed to the
hazards of climate change, such as drought, desertification, and landslides
brought about from greater intensity of storms. [higher exposure]
• The physical circumstances of certain countries/regions make them more
vulnerable to the effects of climate change [greater exposure]
▪ E.g. low-lying countries that are more vulnerable to effects of climate change
such as sea level rise.
▪ E.g. highly urbanised cities with concretised surfaces are more vulnerable to the
effects of climate change such as extreme weather events resulting in greater
occurrences of floods

Social factors:
• Low-income countries tend to have a high dependence on ecosystem services –
in general, affects degree of susceptibility
▪ Countries at low levels of economic development are highly dependent on
ecosystem services, particularly the resources that ecosystems provide for
agriculture, fishing, and other activities that support human survival/main
industries supporting their economy.
▪ These communities and industries are thus also most often the group that is
most vulnerable when ecosystems are threatened, as they would have few other
options for survival. [higher susceptibility]

Economic factors:
• Low-income countries tend to lack sufficient finances/economic ability to invest
in technology – affects adaptive capacity, exposure, and susceptibility
▪ Countries of low levels of economic development are unable to afford investing
in technology that can help to reduce their exposure to the effects of climate
change (e.g. floodwalls, levees, and urbanised drainage systems to deal with
sea level rise → they face less of a flooding threat) [higher exposure]
▪ Countries of low levels of economic development do not have sufficient
resources to support recovery and reconstruction efforts. As a result, they are
unable to withstand and pull through the effects of climate change. [higher
susceptibility]

Political factors:
• Certain minority groups experience a lack of power to speak up / resist – affects
adapative capacity and susceptibility.
▪ Minority groups that congregate in certain localities also have less power to
resist and prevent developments that make their environments more
impoverished (environmentally, socially, or economically).
▪ It is often countries or the elites within countries that have greater economic
and/or political clout to make decisions about land use. The poor and minority
groups are often marginalized and ostracised, and their voices not heard.
 Anderson Serangoon Junior College
2023 JC2 H1 Geography
Post-Prelims Timed Practice (Essays Answer Scheme)
▪ This leaves them in a much more vulnerable state than richer countries/groups
who can speak out against developments and efforts that prioritize the protection
of high-value property and land uses that benefit elite states/corporations, rather
than the livelihoods and wellbeing of their society.
▪ In the event of a climatic hazard, resources and effort will be concentrated on
salvaging these high-value developments instead of helping the people survive
and get through the effects of the climatic hazard. [higher susceptibility]
• Certain countries may be experiencing civil war/political instability/poor
governance – affects adaptive capacity, exposure and susceptibility
▪ They will not have sufficient resources/good governance to plan and enforce
good urban planning within the country
▪ As a result, a large bulk of their population may be residing in undesirable sites,
where they are at greater exposure to the effects of climate change. [higher
exposure]
▪ Poor governance may also result in significant proportions of the population not
having legal statuses to their housing. The impermanent status of their residence
may give rise to informal settlements with poorly constructed housing which are
less able to withstand the effects of climate change. [higher susceptibility]

Q2b "Evidence for climate change strongly suggest that human activities have caused climate
change.”

How far do you agree with this statement? [16]

Things to note:
• Essentially, this question is asking about natural vs. human causes of climate
change. The key difference here from usual questions on this topic is that responses
need to demonstrate comparison between natural and human causes of climate
change using evidence(s) for climate change to justify arguments
o E.g. Long-term vs. short-term evidences of climate change that prove that
human activities have/ have not caused climate change

Indicative content:
• Responses should demonstrate an understanding of human and natural causes of
climate change, as well as the type of climate changes being referred to.
o Human causes: Deforestation, burning of fossil fuels, urbanisation leading to
urban heat island effect, etc.
o Natural causes: Milankovitch cycles, solar forcing, volcanic eruptions

• Responses should compare perspectives for and against the statement, possibly
using evaluative criteria, to come to a conclusion about the question.
o Possible criteria for evaluation/ basis of comparison:

Long-term Possible argument #1: Current pattern of climate change correlates with the
trends long-term warming pattern

• E.g. Evidences for glacial and interglacial cycles, as indicated by the

Milankovitch cycles, show that we are currently in an interglacial
interval
 Anderson Serangoon Junior College
2023 JC2 H1 Geography
Post-Prelims Timed Practice (Essays Answer Scheme)

Short-term Possible argument #2: Short-term swings in climate due to natural factors
patterns are also possible in recent times – cooling in some years. As such, human
causes may not account for all climatic changes experienced currently.

• E.g. Evidences for climate change show that natural factors such as
volcanic eruptions can cause short-term cooling effects in the world

Recent Possible argument #3: Current pattern of climate change –

trends unprecedented rate of increase in temperature – is mainly driven by
human activities

• Evidence for human-driven increase in carbon emissions and

correlated increase in temperature can account for unprecedented
rate of increase
• Evidence for natural causes of climate change can account for
warming cycles, but perhaps not at the speed at which temperatures
are increasing now
• As such, climate change today is more likely to be driven by human
activities today when comparing evidence for short-term vs. long-
term climate change

Root cause Possible argument #4: Current pattern of climate change is mainly driven
by carbon emissions, which human activities are responsible for.

• E.g. Evidence for increase in carbon emissions directly correlate

with increase in temperature, thus showing that human activities
might be the root cause of climate change
• E.g. However, evidence for Milankovitch cycles may not necessarily
show a strong correlation between natural causes of climate
change, thus proving that natural causes may not be the root cause
of climate change after all.
Systems Possible argument #5: Pattern of warming may be amplified by positive
thinking feedbacks that are natural mechanisms.

• Decrease in albedo at the poles as ice melts

• Increase in water vapour in the atmosphere as it is a greenhouse
gas

Conclusion:

Natural causes are more important if we look at the geological timescale, but the
unprecedented rapid warming in recent decades is undeniably due to human activities. Even
though feedback effects are part of the natural environment, the initial trigger is still human
activity and it is therefore the main cause of climate change.