Articles

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01127-1

Extreme sea levels at different global warming

levels
Claudia Tebaldi 1 ✉, Roshanka Ranasinghe 2,3,4, Michalis Vousdoukas 5, D. J. Rasmussen 6,
Ben Vega-Westhoff7, Ebru Kirezci 8, Robert E. Kopp 9, Ryan Sriver 7 and Lorenzo Mentaschi 5,10

The Paris agreement focused global climate mitigation policy on limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial
levels. Consequently, projections of hazards and risk are increasingly framed in terms of global warming levels rather than
emission scenarios. Here, we use a multimethod approach to describe changes in extreme sea levels driven by changes in mean
sea level associated with a wide range of global warming levels, from 1.5 to 5 °C, and for a large number of locations, providing
uniform coverage over most of the world’s coastlines. We estimate that by 2100 ~50% of the 7,000+ locations considered will
experience the present-day 100-yr extreme-sea-level event at least once a year, even under 1.5 °C of warming, and often well
before the end of the century. The tropics appear more sensitive than the Northern high latitudes, where some locations do not
see this frequency change even for the highest global warming levels.

E
xtreme sea levels (ESLs)1 are triggered by the combination of time25. Thus, sea level at a time when a given degree of warming is
storm surges, tides and waves. At vulnerable locations, high reached can be very different from sea level after the system has had
ESLs can constitute severe hazards, causing extensive damages time to equilibrate at that same warming level. We therefore also
to both human settlements and coastal ecosystems when natural choose 2100 as a the time horizon by which different warming levels
and engineered defenses are overtopped or breached 2–6. Inevitably, are achieved. We strongly emphasize epistemic uncertainty in the
increasing global temperatures will continue to cause global mean modelling of RSLC, using two methods for deriving its projections.
sea-level rise7. Even without the potential effects of climate change One of them builds on aggregating existing results obtained by
on waves and storm surge, sea-level rise alone is expected to lead to representative concentration pathway (RCP)-driven Earth System
increases in coastal flooding and/or erosion8–11. Model simulations according to their behaviour at 2100 (the GWL
Several recent studies or assessments that address coastal flood- they reach, independently of the emission scenario followed, and
ing at the global scale have characterized future evolution of ESLs, not necessarily stabilizing at it, in most cases), using an ensemble
particularly as driven by relative sea-level change (RSLC)1,12. Some of projections to account for uncertainties associated with param-
of these adopted a scenario perspective, analysing projected changes eters such as climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake, glacier response
under future emission trajectories for various time horizons3,5,13–18. and dynamic ocean response19. The second uses a simple model
Others have used idealized projections of RSLC11. and combines information from Coupled Model Intercomparison
Only a few studies, some regional in scale, have characterized Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) RCP-based projections of global tempera-
the effects of reaching alternative global warming levels (GWLs) ture together with other IPCC-assessed and/or observationally con-
independently of specific scenarios of future emissions19–22. These strained ranges of those same critical processes in its comprehensive
focused on the low end of the GWL range, in accordance with uncertainty exploration26–28. We also include the effects of deeply
what motivated the Paris Agreement, that is, the measurable dif- uncertain factors contributing to ice-sheet changes29 for the 2 and
ferential impacts for a world at 1.5 °C compared to one at 2 °C 5 °C GWLs using results from a Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ)
above pre-industrial levels23,24. Here, we take this GWL perspective study30 (Methods).
but model RSLC for a wider range of values, from strong mitiga- For present-day ESLs at individual locations, our analysis also
tion (1.5 °C) to high-end global warming (5 °C) and analyse con- adopts a multimethod approach and gathers up to three estimates
sequences for ESL future frequencies. We note, however, that while that used either observational records19 or hydrodynamic model-
the GWL framing is a natural fit for variables for which (at least ling16,17. The latter enables us to produce results for a large number
on a century timescale) climatological changes with warming are of locations covering most of the world’s coastlines, and in one case16
largely time independent, for sea-level change the effects of differ- also models the effects of tropical cyclones potentially making land-
ent GWLs cannot be examined in a time-independent manner, as fall at exposed locations. We pair the alternative estimates of current
global mean sea level is more closely related to time-integrated tem- ESLs with the two alternative RSLC projections, producing six alter-
perature change than to the value of temperature at a given point in native fully probabilistic projections of future ESLs for a subset of

1
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA. 2Department of Coastal and Urban Risk &
Resilience, IHE Delft institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands. 3Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands.
4
Water Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands. 5European Commission,
Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy. 6Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA. 7Department of
Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL, USA. 8Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne,
Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. 9Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers
University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA. 10Present address: Department of Physics and Astronomy Augusto Righi, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy.
✉e-mail: [email protected]

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Nature Climate Change Articles
179 locations and four alternative projections at a larger set of 7,283 The central estimate of the GWL triggering the change in
locations (when not using the observationally based current ESL ESL frequency obtained by the voting system (akin to a majority
estimates). We introduce a voting system, treating the alternative vote, as described in the Methods) is shown in Fig. 1a. Already at
projections as individual experts and producing a central estimate, 1.5 °C of warming by 2100 a large number of locations (54%; also
derived by asking for a majority vote, a lower—pessimistic—bound, Table 1, first row) will experience their present-day 100-yr ESL
akin to taking the most pessimistic projection, and an upper bound, events annually (or more often). This is overwhelmingly true for
which requires unanimity (Methods). The voting system yields a locations in the southern hemisphere and the subtropics (Hawaii,
broad distribution comparable to that produced by ‘p-box’-based the Maritime continent and the Caribbean) and the southern half
possibilistic approaches (for example, ref. 31) and would appear bet- of North America’s Pacific coast. However, a consideration of the
ter suited at respecting the disparities in the alternative estimates we uncertainties (Methods) shows that this frequency change would
seek to merge. In addition, however, we compare the results of this occur at up to 99% of locations in the most pessimistic lower bound
synthesis approach to a more conventional full convolution of the produced by the voting system (Fig. 1c and Table 1, second row),
four, or six, alternatives into a single distribution. while occurring at only 2% of locations for the optimistic upper
As in several previous studies10,14,19,32,33, future ESL changes are bound (Fig. 1e and Table 1, third row). These bounding out-
here taken to be solely a function of changes in mean sea level comes, akin to only asking for the vote of the single lowest GWL
at a location, translating essentially into a uniform shift of the estimate, in the case of the pessimistic bound, or to requiring a
present-day ESL distribution. One of the methods considered here unanimous vote in the case of the optimistic bound (as explained
for the estimation of ESLs16 also modelled future changes in storm in the Methods) highlight the substantial level of disagreement
surge and waves but found that these contributions did not sub- among the six estimates, stemming from the wide ranges of the
stantially affect the temporal dynamics of ESLs, especially at the estimated present-day ESLs and the RSLC projections. Further
global scale adopted herein, compared to the overwhelming effect considering the central estimate (Fig. 1a and Table 1, first row), an
of RSLC. Similarly, the focus on long-term changes and the global additional 11% of locations undergoes the change in frequency if
perspective made us choose not to address explicitly natural vari- global warming reaches 2 °C by 2100. But up to 7% of locations do
ability of ESLs, even if localized, mostly present-day analyses have not reach that annual frequency even for a warming of 5 °C and
shown its importance10,34. The expectation is that the size of RSLC even if the SEJ-derived effects of ice-sheet dynamics are included
will overwhelm such variability by the end of the century. Of course, (as all purple dots signify). Most of this last type of location are
even if limited by the length of the historical period used for esti- along the coastlines of Alaska and Northern Europe but are also
mating present-day ESLs (≥30 yr depending on the method), a por- found in regions exposed to tropical cyclone activity. Exposure to
tion of that internal variability is necessarily reflected in the ESL tropical cyclone activity makes the present-day ESL distributions
central estimates and their uncertainty bound. wider (Extended Data Fig. 1) and therefore less sensitive to uniform
Our focus here is on large-scale global assessment and we posi- shifts from RSLC. Further consideration of the upper bound shows
tion our study as eminently relevant for scientists and policy-makers that up to 70% of locations do not see the 100-fold increase in fre-
who are interested in the spatial dynamics of sea-level rise and its quency for any of the considered GWLs, suggesting that at least one
implications. Local stakeholders have to contend with additional of the six estimates produces a more moderate frequency change
uncertainties and components of impact risk, like exposure and even at the highest GWL considered.
vulnerability linked to topography and future socioeconomic con- Results for a much larger number of locations (7,283) at which
ditions, for example. We do not address those here, as we focus our four alternative projections are available and are combined through
analysis on changes in a standard benchmark metric of hazards, our voting system are presented in Fig. 1b,d,f and Table 1 (fourth
the 100-yr ESL event (the extreme total water level expected to be to sixth rows). These have almost uniform global coverage, with an
experienced on average once in 100 yr or with 0.01 probability every along-coast spacing of ~1° (~100 km at the equator; Methods). The
year), recognizing that it may or may not be of immediate salience differences between 100-yr and 1-yr events at this larger set of loca-
to individual localities. tions are shown in Extended Data Fig. 2.
The spatial dynamics shown by the analysis at the sparse subset of
GWLs triggering changes in frequency of ESLs the tide-gauge locations (Fig. 1a,c,e and Table 1, first through third
The study is framed to answer a specific question: what is the low- rows) appears to be representative of that along the global coast-
est warming level to trigger at least a 100-fold change in frequency line (Fig. 1b,d,f and Table 1, fourth through sixth rows). Most of the
of the present-day 100-yr ESL event, making it at least an annual tropics see the change in frequency from 100-yr to 1-yr (or more
occurrence by 2100? frequent) ESL event already at 1.5 °C of warming also for the larger
We start from the subset of 179 locations at which we have six set of locations, while the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes are
alternative estimates. For all components, RSLCs and ESLs, full again projected not to experience such a dramatic ESL frequency
probability distributions are available (Methods); in Supplementary change, many even for the highest level of warming, and even with
Figs. 1–3 we show the three alternative mean estimates of the SEJ-derived ice-sheet contributions (as all purple dots signify). The
present-day 100-yr ESL and the associated standard deviations. greater coverage indicates that parts of the Mediterranean coasts
Supplementary Figs. 4–11 show the six GWL-based RSLC median and the Arabian Peninsula may also become ESL hotspots. A more
projections available from the two alternative methods, plus the complex picture emerges for some of the coastal areas, with a high
two projections that include ice-sheet contributions based on SEJ level of along-coast variability; for example, along the Atlantic coast
available for one of the methods. In Extended Data Fig. 1, we also of North America, where the whole range of GWLs can result in the
show the mean difference across the three ESL datasets between the 100-fold change in frequency at nearby locations. The West coast
present-day 100-yr and 1-yr ESL events, together with the standard of North America appears less sensitive to GWLs up to 5 °C and
deviation around it. The latter provides important context against so does the Pacific coast of the Asian continent. Japan appears to
which to evaluate the salience of the results we present below, since experience a dichotomy between a sensitive West coast and its East
at some locations the difference is much smaller than at others. By coast, showing to endure the whole range of GWLs. Most of these
design, our analysis does not extend to the evaluation of actual, features are reflected in the mean and standard deviation of the dif-
location-specific impacts. Therefore, in the following, we do not ferences between 100-yr and 1-yr events shown in Supplementary
highlight how large a change in the magnitude of the annual event Fig. 13. All this detail, however, does not translate in radically dif-
at 2100 the enhanced frequency implies. ferent distributions of the proportion of sites under the triggering

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Articles Nature Climate Change

a b
80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20
Latitude

Latitude
0 0

–20 –20

–40 –40

–60 –60

–80 –80

–150 –100 –50 0 50 100 150 –150 –100 –50 0 50 100 150
Longitude Longitude
c d
80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20
Latitude

Latitude
0 0

–20 –20

–40 –40

–60 –60

–80 –80

–150 –100 –50 0 50 100 150 –150 –100 –50 0 50 100 150
Longitude Longitude
e f
80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20
Latitude

Latitude

0 0

–20 –20

–40 –40

–60 –60

–80 –80

–150 –100 –50 0 50 100 150 –150 –100 –50 0 50 100 150
Longitude Longitude

1.5 °C 2.0 °C 2.0 °C+ 2.5 °C 3.0 °C 4.0 °C 5.0 °C 5.0 °C+ None

Fig. 1 | GWLs triggering a 100-fold increase in the 100-year ESL frequency. a–f, GWLs reached by 2100 (distinguished by colour) causing the present-day
100-yr ESL event to become at least an annual event for 179 tide-gauge locations at which estimates are available from all three studies (a, c and e) and
for 7,283 locations at which ESL estimates are available from the two model-based studies (b, d and f)). a, Central estimates for 179 tide-gauge locations
for which all six alternative projections are available. b, Central estimate for 7,283 locations for which four alternative projections are available. c, Upper
bound for the 179 locations. d, Upper bound for the 7,283 locations. e, Lower bound for the 179 locations. f, Lower bound for the 7,283 locations. Central
estimates, lower and upper bound, as defined in the Methods, are shown from top to bottom respectively. The + sign associated with 2 and 5 °C indicates
projections that include SEJ-derived estimates of ice-sheet contribution to RSLC.

GWLs, as a comparison of the corresponding rows in Table 1 shows. We test the robustness of this result by considering the outcomes
For the larger set of locations, the central estimate projects that 43% of an alternative synthesis method, a full convolution that con-
of locations will experience the present-day 100-yr ESL event at an structs a unique distribution of future ESLs from the six (or four)
annual or higher frequency even at 1.5 °C and that such a large fre- distributions that we have treated as individual expert voters in our
quency change will not occur at about 12% of the locations, even at approach so far. The full convolution could be seen as a more tra-
the highest warming level (and even when including the effects of ditional approach at merging different probabilistic estimates but
ice-sheet melt). The pessimistic lower bound estimate shows 99% of given the substantial differences in the individual estimates we pro-
the locations experiencing the frequency change at 1.5 °C. The opti- pose our voting system as better suited at respecting such disagree-
mistic upper bound has only 7% experiencing this change at 1.5 °C ments. Focusing on central estimates and lower and upper bounds
and 60% avoiding the change altogether. available from both methods, a comparison of the histograms in

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Nature Climate Change Articles
Table 1 | GWLs triggering frequency changes in ESLs
1.5 2.0 2.0+ 2.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 5.0+ None
179 locations:
50th quantile and majority vote 54% 11% 4% 8% 2% 7% 3% 6% 7%
5th quantile and minimum vote 99% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
95th quantile and maximum vote 2% 1% 5% 1% 0% 3% 3% 15% 70%
7,283 locations:
50th quantile and majority vote 43% 10% 4% 10% 5% 8% 4% 4% 12%
5th quantile and minimum vote 99% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
95th quantile and maximum vote 7% 1% 7% 0% 0% 2% 6% 17% 60%
Percentage of the 179 locations depicted in Fig. 1a,c,e (first to third rows of the table) and of the 7,283 locations depicted in Fig. 1b,d,f (fourth to sixth rows of the table) at which the frequency of the
present-day 100-yr ESL event changes to at least an annual event by 2100. Indicated are central estimates, lower (pessimistic) and upper (optimistic) bounds for the GWL required. Percentages along each
row may not add up to 100 exactly because of rounding errors. Each percentage value under GWLs of 2 °C or higher is to be interpreted as the additional fraction of sites experiencing the change (that is, in
addition to the total along the row to its left). The + sign associated with 2 and 5 °C indicates projections that include SEJ-derived estimates of ice-sheet contribution to RSLC.

Extended Data Fig. 3, left versus right column, indicates that the 100-yr ESL event at least once a year, even for a trajectory of global
choice of synthesis method does not impact the lower bound (pessi- temperature that limits warming to 1.5 °C or at most 2 °C. The lower
mistic) estimates (histograms in the third and fourth row) and only bound estimate sees practically all sites (98 or 99%) experiencing
slightly changes the central estimate (top two rows) and the upper that dramatic change already for 1.5 °C. On the opposite end of the
bound (bottom two rows). (The tractability of a single probability spectrum, an optimistic estimate sees about 60–70% of the loca-
distribution rather than the need of reconciling four or six of them tions avoiding such an increase in frequency altogether. Locations
through our voting system, allows us to gain additional insights, around the world can show very different behavior with respect to
by filling in intermediate quantiles to better represent the range of this change in frequency, either showing large sensitivities already at
probabilistic outcomes. The distribution of GWLs including two the lowest warming levels of 1.5 or 2 °C or being insensitive even up
intermediate quantiles, bounding 66% of probability, is shown in to the highest warming considered (5 °C), as about 7% of locations
Supplementary Tables 4 and 5. As expected, the outcomes across do not experience the frequency change, even when the possibil-
GWLs are in these intermediate cases more evenly spread.) ity of rapid ice-sheet loss is included in the estimates of RSLC. We
Spatially, the differences emerging between the two approaches tested the sensitivity of this result to the approach taken to deter-
do not change the large-scale geographical patterns. Both methods mine our ‘consensus’ by applying a more traditional convolution of
confirm that the Atlantic coast of North America and the coasts of the alternative probability distributions. The overall message does
Northeast Asia are affected by a high degree of along-coast variabil- not change substantially. According to this last approach, we were
ity. These results are mapped in Extended Data Fig. 4. also able to estimate the time at which the 100-fold increase in ESL
frequency happens and we find that most of these locations will
Timing of the ESL frequency changes experience such change earlier than the end of the century, that is,
Last, even if our analyses focussed on what happens at the time in the decade between 2070 and 2080 according to our central esti-
when the discrete set of warming levels are reached (2100), the avail- mate under the lowest GWL of 1.5 °C, one decade earlier for the
ability of the corresponding RSLC timeseries over the twenty-first intermediate GWLs and as early as 2060 for the highest GWLs of
century (2020–2100) allows us to answer a further question, about 4.0 and 5.0 °C. These last results are found to be very consistent with
when 100-yr to 1-yr ESL frequency changes are first observed. the analogous results shown in Fig. SPM4 of ref. 35, if one consid-
We stress, however, that the answer needs to be always condi- ers RCP 2.6 as a 2.0 °C end-of-century scenario and RCP 8.5 as a
tional on the trajectories identified as being consistent with the 4.0–5.0 °C end-of-century scenario36.
individual GWLs. Supplementary Figs. 12 (for 1.5 °C) through 19 Coastlines in the tropics and parts of the Mediterranean and
(for 5.0 °C) and Table 2 show the decade when the 100-fold fre- the Arabian Peninsula appear to be the places where these 100-fold
quency change is first observed, for the larger set of locations, and changes in frequency of the 100-yr ESL events will take place even if
using the full-convolution approach. For the locations that are sen- 2100 warming is limited to 1.5 or 2 °C, consistent with previous stud-
sitive to even the lowest warming level of 1.5 °C—identified in our ies that focused specifically on these lower levels of warming37. Parts
previous analysis mostly with the tropics and subtropics, that is, all of the coastal regions of the highest latitudes of both hemispheres
locations not coloured in purple in Supplementary Fig. 12—most are those where even higher levels of warming will not produce
are projected by the central estimate to experience the shift between such frequency increases. While there may be localized exceptions,
2070 and 2080; for warmer GWLs up to 3.0 °C the 100-fold increase this means that, in terms of a 100-fold increase in the 100-yr ESL
in frequency affects most sites one decade earlier, between 2060 and frequency, microtidal areas are highly sensitive to even the smaller
2070. The highest GWLs (4.0 and 5.0 °C) cause most sites to experi- GWLs considered here, while meso- and macro-tidal areas are not.
ence the change between 2050 and 2060. The same applies for coastal areas that are either protected or exposed
to meteorological extremes, with the former being more vulnerable
Discussion to changing mean sea levels that expose them to unprecedented ESLs.
We use a voting system, which we also compare to a more tradi- The RSLC maps in the Supplementary Information also show that sea
tional full-convolution approach to synthesize alternative projec- level is projected to increase above-average in many of these regions.
tions of ESL frequency changes (from 100-yr event at present to The coasts of North America and the coast of Northeast Asia
annual or more frequent by 2100) at a range of GWLs, for a large appear to host a high degree of spatial variability in the results,
number of locations all along the world’s coastlines. with locations adjacent to one another either experiencing a large
According to our central estimate, by the end of the century close change in frequency at very low warming levels, or not experiencing
to half of the locations considered will experience the present-day it even for the highest warming levels considered here, calling for

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Table 2 | Timing of frequency changes in ESLs

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 No change
Lower 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.74 0.81 0.86 0.90 0.93 0.96 0.04
1.5 °C Central 0.01 0.10 0.19 0.26 0.35 0.46 0.55 0.62 0.66 0.34
Upper 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.84
Lower 0.25 0.57 0.70 0.80 0.88 0.92 0.96 0.97 0.99 0.01
2.0 °C Central 0.01 0.10 0.19 0.27 0.38 0.52 0.62 0.69 0.75 0.25
Upper 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.19 0.81
Lower 0.41 0.65 0.78 0.88 0.92 0.95 0.98 0.99 1.00 0.00
2.0 °C+ Central 0.02 0.12 0.21 0.30 0.42 0.58 0.67 0.74 0.80 0.20
Upper 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.22 0.78
Lower 0.41 0.65 0.79 0.88 0.92 0.95 0.98 0.99 1.00 0.00
2.5 °C Central 0.02 0.13 0.21 0.30 0.44 0.61 0.70 0.78 0.83 0.17
Upper 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.14 0.18 0.21 0.24 0.76
Lower 0.41 0.65 0.79 0.88 0.92 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.00 0.00
3.0 °C Central 0.02 0.13 0.22 0.31 0.47 0.63 0.73 0.80 0.86 0.14
Upper 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.18 0.21 0.25 0.75
Lower 0.41 0.66 0.79 0.88 0.92 0.96 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.00
4.0 °C Central 0.02 0.13 0.22 0.33 0.54 0.70 0.81 0.87 0.92 0.08
Upper 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.18 0.22 0.26 0.31 0.69
Lower 0.41 0.66 0.79 0.88 0.94 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.00
5.0 °C Central 0.02 0.13 0.23 0.40 0.63 0.76 0.85 0.91 0.95 0.05
Upper 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.15 0.21 0.29 0.39 0.47 0.53
Lower 0.41 0.67 0.83 0.92 0.97 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00
5.0 °C+ Central 0.02 0.14 0.25 0.44 0.67 0.80 0.87 0.92 0.96 0.04
Upper 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.10 0.17 0.25 0.34 0.44 0.54 0.46
Cumulative fractions of 7,283 sites shown in Supplementary Figs. 12–19 that experience the 100-fold change in ESL frequency in each decade under each of the GWLs. We underline the first fraction to
become larger than 0.5 to highlight the decade by which more than half the sites considered experience such change. The last column highlights the fraction of the sites that do not experience the 100-fold
change by 2100 for that GWL.

more indepth analysis and detailed modelling of the local dynam- author contributions and competing interests; and statements of
ics. These geographically differentiated results are consistent with data and code availability are available at https://doi.org/10.1038/
the analyses of refs. 11,16, which also highlighted similar differential s41558-021-01127-1.
sensitivities for return period changes due to RSLC. Topography
and the history of extreme events experienced in the record at these Received: 27 January 2021; Accepted: 19 July 2021;
locations are probably the source of such variations. Published online: 30 August 2021
Our findings have important policy and practical implications
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10, 2741–2760 (2017). Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons
27. Vega-Westhoff, B., Sriver, R. L., Hartin, C. A., Wong, T. E. & Keller, K. Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adap-
Impacts of observational constraints related to sea level on estimates of tation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long
climate sensitivity. Earth’s Future 7, 677–690 (2019). as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to
28. Vega-Westhoff, B., Sriver, R. L., Hartin, C., Wong, T. E. & Keller, K. The role the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other
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Lett. 47, e2019GL085792 (2020). unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in
29. DeConto, R. M. & Pollard, D. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statu-
sea-level rise. Nature 531, 591–597 (2016). tory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly
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Articles Nature Climate Change

Methods tide, surge and wave setup. ESLs are determined by fitting ten different extreme
Our analysis focuses on frequency changes of present-day 100-yr ESL events value analysis methods and the global best fit is determined to be a GPD using the
(events having 0.01 probability in any given year) at locations along the world’s 98th-percentile threshold. Both the historical total water levels and the ESLs are
ice-free coastline (Greenland, the Russian Arctic coast and Antarctica excluded). rigorously validated against the quasi-global GESLA-2 tide-gauge observations51.
At each location, future probabilistic estimates of RSLC are added to The study does not consider possible future changes in storm surge heights and
present-day probability distribution of ESLs. The addition has the first-order effect wave heights. Tropical cyclones effects are not included in these ESL estimates.
of shifting the distribution of ESLs uniformly and therefore changing the height
of the 100-year event (and any other) by an offset equal to the amount of RSLC. Rasmussen et al. (2018). This study19, in contrast to the two previously described,
The addition of an offset also changes the return period (the expected frequency) relies only on observed hourly records of still water height to fit GPDs at a global
of the present-day 100-yr event, by making it more frequent if RSLC is positive network of about 200 tide gauges (University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (Data
or less frequent in the few locations and time periods where RSLC projections are availability)). Only tide-gauge records of length >30 consecutive years and for which
negative. While the change in height of the future 100-yr event is by construction each year has >80% of observations available are considered. Unlike the above
in our analysis the magnitude of RSLC, the change in frequency will depend on model-based approaches, this would neglect wave setup and swash contributions,
the interplay between the RSLC magnitude and the shape of the present-day both of which can be important contributors to ESLs52,53, unless the gauges are located
ESL distribution. Importantly, all uncertainties in the parameters of the ESL nearshore. For each day in a given tide-gauge record with >12 h of data, the daily
distribution and the RSLC projections are taken into account. maximum sea level is estimated. Following ref. 32, the variation in ESLs is isolated
All three studies used here for the ESL component fit peak-over-threshold by subtracting the annual mean sea level change from each daily maximum value
Poisson-Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) models42 to present-day ESLs at (that is, values are detrended). The detrended daily maximum tide values are then
each location. One of the original studies looked at alternative functional forms referenced to local mean sea level. Daily maximum sea levels that are (1) above the
for the fit and concluded that the GPD had optimal properties17. Depending 99th percentile and (2) within 3 d of each other are declustered to meet the statistical
on the study, these ESLs are either observed from tide gauges or generated by independence assumption of the GPD. The GPD is fitted to these daily maxima.
hydrodynamic models that are validated with observations. Each Poisson-GPD Here, as in the previous two studies, future changes in storm frequency54, intensity55
model is characterized by four parameters: a threshold, determining the location or track56, which could all modify the GPD parameters, are not considered. Also
of the distribution; a scale parameter, determining its width; a shape parameter, not considered are changes in the tide-surge interaction53,57,58 or future changes in
determining how fast the tail declines; and a rate parameter, determining the geomorphology, which can both impact the return periods of ESLs59,60.
expected frequency of threshold exceedances. The addition of a positive amount
of RSLC can be equivalently characterized as a decrease in the threshold by the Future RSLC estimates based on two previous studies. Our projections of future
same amount and therefore an increase in the likelihood of exceedances of a given RSLC, geographically detailed, are obtained according to two methods developed
height. The magnitude of the increase in the likelihood of occurrence of a given in previously published studies but here applied to a wider range of GWLs.
ESL caused by a given shift is determined by the scale and shape parameters.
If a quantity—in our case the extreme total water level1, which we here call Rasmussen et al. (2018). This approach19 uses a set of local, probabilistic, RSLC
ESL—follows the GPD, its probability distribution can be expressed as a function projections conditional on each temperature target. Projections are made at
of three parameters: a threshold μ, a scale parameter σ and a shape parameter ξ. a global tide-gauge network (Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (Data
Consider z = x− μ availability)) as well as at the centre points of a 1° × 1° grid covering the coastlines
σ . Then, when z > 0
of nearly all global landmasses, including several islands. The methodology of the
 (ξz + 1)− ξ+ξ 1 for ξ ̸= 0 projections follows the ‘bottom-up’, component-based framework of ref. 61, with


f(z) = (1) modifications to accommodate temperature targets19,62 and estimates of dynamic

 −z ice-sheet melt from an SEJ exercise30.
e for ξ = 0
Following ref. 19, temperature targets are accommodated by constructing
is the GPD density function. The additional parameter of interest that needs to be alternative ensembles for each temperature scenario using Atmosphere-Ocean
estimated to compute return periods is λ the Poisson rate of exceedance, indicating Global Climate Model (AOGCM) output filtered according to each AOGCM’s
the expected annual number of events exceeding the threshold μ. According to the 2100 global mean surface air temperature. Specifically, AOGCM outputs from
GPD definition, the expected number of events exceeding the threshold in a year the CMIP5 archive63 are used for global mean thermal expansion, local ocean
is then dynamics and as a driver of a surface mass balance model of glaciers and ice caps64.
We detail the GCMs/RCPs used in Supplementary Tables 1–3. We create ensembles
1
for 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4 and 5 °C with AOGCMs that have a twenty-first-century global

 λ(1 + ξz)− ξ for ξ ̸= 0
N(z) = (2) mean surface air temperature increase (19-yr running average) of 1.5 ± 0.25 °C,
 λe−z for ξ = 0 2 ± 0.25 °C, 2.5 ± 0.25 °C, 3 ± 0.5 °C, 4 ± 0.5 °C and 5 ± 0.5 °C. For consistency with
the ref. 61 framework, which models 19-yr running averages of SLC relative to 2000,
In our study, when we consider RSLC corresponding to year 2100 GWLs of anomalies of global mean surface air temperature from 1991 to 2009 are computed
1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4 or 5°C above pre-industrial levels, we assume that those levels are and then shifted upward by 0.72 °C to account for warming since 1875–190065.
reached by a gradual, non-decreasing trajectory of temperature change over the The global mean surface air temperature trajectories and global mean sea-level
course of the twenty-first century. contributions from thermal expansion and glacial ice from selected CMIP5 models
that are binned into each temperature target category are shown in Supplementary
Present-day ESL estimates from three previous studies. The three previously Figs. 20 and 21 respectively. Supplementary Tables 1–3 list the AOGCMs used in
published studies that we use provide GPD parameters at locations around the each temperature target ensemble, the RCP and the sea-level components derived.
world using the following approaches. Two different approaches are used for modelling contributions from ice-sheet
melt. In the first approach, Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS)
Vousdoukas et al. (2018). This study16 uses the baseline period of 1980–2014 to contributions are estimated by combining IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
generate realizations of the additive components of the total water levels (tidal ‘likely range’ projections of ice-sheet dynamics and surface mass balance (Table
elevation, wave setup and storm surges) by forcing a storm surge model and 13.5 in ref. 66) with information about distribution tail shape from an SEJ study
a wave model (Delft3D-FM (refs. 43,44) and WW3 (refs. 45,46) respectively) with of ice-sheet mass loss from ref. 67. Total ice-sheet contributions are computed by
ERA-INTERIM wind and pressure fields. Tropical cyclones effects are included in this approach for each temperature target considered in this study, by randomly
this baseline estimates by using satellite data (for wave heights) and simulating all sampling the AIS and GIS ice-sheet distribution for each RCP (Table 13.5 in ref. 66)
historical tropical cyclones recorded during the 1980–2014 period (for storm surge) in proportion to the representation of each RCP in the groups of CMIP5 models
on the basis of the datasets available through the Hurricane Research Division of the selected for each temperature target. For example, the 1.5 °C target uses 12 CMIP5
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (United States), the Joint Typhoon models from RCP 2.6 and two from RCP 4.5, so 86% of the samples are drawn
Warning Center and the UNISYS database (Data availability). These weather-driven from the RCP 2.6 distribution and 14% are drawn from the RCP 4.5 distribution
components are added to the high-tide level at each location. A GPD is then fitted (Supplementary Table 1).
to these data. While here we use only the baseline period GPD parameters at each In the second approach, which we apply only to projections for the 2 and
location, ref. 16 also estimate future changes in all the ESL components, by using 5 °C temperature targets, contributions from ice-sheet melt are obtained from the
CMIP5 model output and two emission scenarios to force the hydrodynamic models, SEJ study of ref. 30. Projections of RSLC after mid-twenty-first century are highly
but find that at most locations the main driver of change remains RSLC. The study dependent on ice-sheet melt because of its potential for substantial contributions
relies on the preceding validation of the individual models used. to global mean sea-level rise5,68. However, incomplete understanding of the
physical processes that govern ice-sheet melt inhibits realistic representations in
Kirezci et al. (2020). This study17 combines global models of tide (FES2014, ref. process-based models. In such cases of incomplete scientific understanding, SEJ
), storm surge (GTSR, ref. 43) and waves (GOW2, ref. 48) to reconstruct the
47
using calibrated expert responses is one approach for estimating such uncertain
historical total water level at the DIVA coastal locations49,50 for the baseline period quantities (as used here). Note that we treat these two as additional levels of
1979–2014. Total water levels are defined as above, as the linear summation of the GWL range and pair them with the same 2 and 5 °C estimates from the

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Nature Climate Change Articles
alternative method (not specifically containing SEJ ice-sheet melt estimates) when A population of samples large enough to characterize future statistics robustly
synthesizing through the voting or the convolution methods. (we use 1,000 after verifying that larger samples would not change substantially our
results) is computed separately for each of the six combinations of the three sets of
Vega-Westhoff et al. (2019). RSLC projections from this approach27 are from a ESL estimates and the two sets of RSLC estimates.
recent perturbed physics ensemble using the reduced complexity climate model Note that the use of this formula caps the highest obtainable frequency
Hector-BRICK26,27,69. The model includes a one-dimensional diffusive heat and to the 1-year return period. Therefore, by construction that is going to be the
energy balance model, combined with a sea-level change module that represents highest future frequency projected by our approach, even if some locations
contributions from thermal expansion, glaciers and small ice caps and polar ice could experience present-day 100-year ESL events more often than once a year
sheets. The model also includes a simple parameterization of fast ice-sheet dynamic under different GWLs19. Consequently, when throughout the paper we use the
disintegration in the Antarctic ice-sheet component26. We estimate 39 uncertain expressions 1-yr, or annual, ESL event, we have added wording to the effect that
parameters using a Bayesian calibration method (adaptive Markov Chain Monte this is a lower estimate of the possible change in frequency.
Carlo), with observational constraints from global surface temperature, global
ocean thermal expansion and polar land ice. The ensemble and applications are Synthesizing. For a subset of 179 locations, and for a given warming level, we
discussed in more detail in refs. 27,28. have six full probability distributions of future (2100) return periods of the current
Here we sample 10,000 parameter combinations from the joint posterior 100-yr ESL event, one for each combination of the three ESL estimates with the
distribution. For each parameter combination, we force the model with RCP 2.6, two RSLC estimates. For a much larger set of 7,283 locations we have four, as the
RCP 4.5, RCP 6 and RCP 8.5 radiative forcings. We create ensembles by sorting observation-based ESL estimates from ref. 19 are only available for the subset of
these simulations into bins of twenty-first-century global mean temperature 179 common locations.
increase (19-yr running average) of 1.5 ± 0.25 °C, 2 ± 0.25 °C, 2.5 ± 0.25 °C, By considering the evolution of these distributions across the discrete set of
3 ± 0.5 °C, 4 ± 0.5 °C and 5 ± 0.5 °C. GWLs at 2100, it is possible to pinpoint the warming level, if any, at which the
Hector-BRICK simulates global sea-level rise, so gridded and local tide-gauge current 100-yr event becomes an annual (or more frequent) event. Estimates
estimates (Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (Data availability)) are derived are by construction not deterministic but hinge on choosing a level of
constructed from Hector-BRICK results using a fingerprinting technique that confidence, for example, a quantile of the six distributions and some form of
accounts for regional variability due to mass redistribution from melting land ‘voting’ among them.
ice28,70. For this fingerprinting, we assume land water storage and ocean thermal We use the following three ways to synthesize this complex set of projections at
expansion are globally uniform and we neglect changes in local ocean dynamics. each location where all six probabilistic estimates are available.
We also assume that contributions from Antarctica and Greenland are uniform
1. For each 2100 warming level, we consider the median value (50th quantile) of
over their respective ice-sheet surfaces. We also neglect the possibility of different
each of the six distributions of future return periods and we will take the low-
paces of mass change for different glacier regions over the twenty-first century.
est warming level for which most of the six medians predict a change from
Both of the methods produce RSLC projections at the same set of tide gauges
100-yr to 1-yr (that is, at least four of the medians are equal to 1-yr RP). This
used in ref. 19 and in addition cover a regular 1° × 1° grid over the world’s coastlines.
will be our ‘central estimate’ of the warming level at which the frequency of
Both methods produce projections in the form of an empirical distribution of
the current 100-yr event becomes annual (or higher). This estimate could be
values generated through Monte Carlo sampling.
characterized as a majority vote (using the medians of the distributions as the
The methods can produce substantially different projections, especially in the
individual votes).
high latitudes (Supplementary Figs. 4–10). We attribute these large differences to
2. For each 2100 warming level, we will consider the 5th quantile of each
two reasons. First, the methods use two different approaches for accounting for
of the the six distributions. This choice represents a ‘worst case’ because
non-climatic vertical land motion. Following ref. 61, ref. 19 uses a spatiotemporal
it favours low values in the distribution, translating to a short return
Gaussian process model to account for background rates of vertical land motion.
period, and therefore a high frequency. Our voting system in this case will
This includes deltaic processes, tectonic uplift, anthropogenic subsidence processes
pick the most pessimistic of the six estimates; that is, we will choose the
(for example, ground water and fossil fuel withdrawal) and glacial isostatic
lowest warming level at which the minimum of the six 5th quantiles is equal
adjustment. On the other hand, ref. 27 only considers glacial isostatic adjustment
to 1-yr RP. This will be the pessimistic (lower) bound of our estimates. This
estimates from ref. 70. Second, the two methods consider different estimates of
estimate can be characterized as taking the most extreme (in a negative sense)
GIS melt and AIS melt. For example, ref. 27 considers a median estimate for AIS
of the alternative estimates; that is, using a low value of the most sensitive
melt that is nearly 0.5 m larger than for ref. 19. Greater ice-sheet melt can amplify
distribution.
differences in RSLC due to gravitational-rotational and deformational effects1.
3. For each 2100 warming level, we will consider the 95th quantile of each of the
six distributions. Mirroring the pessimistic case above, this choice represents
Matching the two components and computing future frequencies. The GPDs
a ‘best case’ because it favours large values in the distribution, translating to a
estimated by each of the three studies include measures of standard errors for the
long return period and therefore a lower frequency. Our voting system in this
parameters and the 100-yr event. To sample from the distributions fully accounting
case will pick the lowest warming level at which the maximum of the six 95th
for the uncertainty in the parameters, we use an asymptotic approximation to their
quantiles is 1-yr RP. This will constitute our optimistic upper bound estimate.
covariance matrix based on the Fisher information matrix, as presented in refs.
Note that by definition requiring the maximum to be 1 is equal to requiring
71
. The Fisher information matrix, when calculated at the maximum likelihood
that all six 95th quantiles are equal to 1; that is, we require unanimity among
estimates of the parameters, can be interpreted as the inverse of the covariance
the individual votes.
matrix estimate and in our notation takes the simple form
( 2 We apply this synthesis to the 179 locations at which all three ESL estimates
1 + ξ 2σ σ are available (we define one available if it produces an estimate at a location within
)
(3) a distance less than a (spatial) degree, which is also the criterion for matching
N σ 1+ξ
RSLC and ESLs estimates). We then show the same synthesis (with the required
modification in defining the majority vote out of four) applied to the 7,283
where N is the expected total number of exceedances, estimated by λ multiplied by
locations at which both ESL estimates based on hydrodynamic modelling are
the number of years used in the estimation.
available but not the observation-based one.
The approximation is valid as long as ξ > −0.5 which is true for all but a
An alternative, more conventional, approach to synthesizing these multiple
handful of locations, which we discard.
distributions is to consider them equally likely and combine them by Monte
We therefore resample at each location pairs of the shape and scale parameters
Carlo sampling into a single full-convolution distribution, for which median and
according to a normal distribution with mean their maximum likelihood
quantiles of interest can be extracted. We perform this alternative approach as well,
estimates and covariance matrix (equation (3)), and for each pair we derive the
by sampling 1,000 values from the individual distribution with equal weights and
corresponding value of the 100-yr event. We then match them with as many
discuss differences in the outcomes of the two synthesis approaches.
random samples from the RSLC distributions.
For each location and each sample i, given the magnitude of the present-day
100-year event, xi, the four parameters of the GPD, μ, σi, ξi and λ and the magnitude Data availability
of RSLC by 2100 for a given warming target, si, the new frequency RP(xi) (RP, Datasets containing ESLs and SLRC matched for this study are available from
return period) can be computed as https://github.com/DOE-ICoM/tebaldi-etal_2021_natclimchange. Data from
the Hurricane Research Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
1 if xi ≤ μ′ else:


 Administration are available at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/Data_Storm.
html; data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center are available at https://www.

 ( 1
ξ i (xi − μ′ ) ξ i
1 )
λ 1+ for ξi ̸= 0

RP(x) = σi (4) metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html?best-tracks/ and the UNISYS database is available
 at https://cmr.earthdata.nasa.gov/search/concepts/C1214612507-SCIOPS. The
x μ

1
 λ exp σ i for ξi = 0 University of Hawaii Sea Level Center data are available at https://doi.org/10.7289/
 ′

 i −

V5V40S7W. The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level data are available at
where μ′ = μ + si . https://www.psmsl.org.

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Articles Nature Climate Change

Code availability 62. Bittermann, K., Rahmstorf, S., Kopp, R. E. & Kemp, A. C. Global mean
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experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012).
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Extended Data Fig. 1 | Differences between 100-yr and 1-yr events. For the subset of 179 locations at which all three ESL datasets are available, mean
value (top panel) and standard deviation (bottom panel) of the difference between current 100-yr and 1-yr current events.

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Extended Data Fig. 2 | Differences between 100-yr and 1-yr events. For the subset of 7,283 locations at which the two datasets based on modelling of
current ESL are available, mean value (top panel) and standard deviation (bottom panel) of the difference between current 100-yr and the 1-yr events.

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Nature Climate Change Articles
(a) (b)
100% 100%
80% 80%

179 sites

179 sites
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
1.5C 2.0C+ 3.0C 5.0C none 1.5C 2.0C+ 3.0C 5.0C none

(c) (d)
100%
7283 sites 100%

7283 sites
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
1.5C 2.0C+ 3.0C 5.0C none 1.5C 2.0C+ 3.0C 5.0C none

(e) (f)
100% 100%
80% 80%
179 sites

179 sites
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
1.5C 2.0C+ 3.0C 5.0C none 1.5C 2.0C+ 3.0C 5.0C none

(g) (h)
100% 100%
7283 sites

7283 sites

80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
1.5C 2.0C+ 3.0C 5.0C none 1.5C 2.0C+ 3.0C 5.0C none

(i) (j)
100% 100%
80% 80%
179 sites

179 sites

60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
1.5C 2.0C+ 3.0C 5.0C none 1.5C 2.0C+ 3.0C 5.0C none

(k) (l)
100% 100%
7283 sites

7283 sites

80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
1.5C 2.0C+ 3.0C 5.0C none 1.5C 2.0C+ 3.0C 5.0C none

Extended Data Fig. 3 | Histograms of the distribution of the number of sites at which a 100-fold increase in the frequency of the present-day 100-yr ESL
event occurs for each warming level. Results are shown for two alternative synthesis methods, the voting system (left column) and the full convolution
(right column). The histograms along each column are organized in pairs, with the first pair showing the central estimate ((a)-(d)) the second pair
showing the lower bound ((e)-(h)) and the third and last pair showing the upper bound ((i)-(l)). For each pair, the upper histogram shows the results for
the smaller set of 179 sites, the lower histogram shows the results for the larger set of 7,283 sites.

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Articles Nature Climate Change

Extended Data Fig. 4 | As Fig. 1 but using a full convolution. Combining all four distributions into an overall distribution by a full convolution, GWLs
reached by 2100 (distinguished by colour) causing the present-day 100-yr ESL event to become at least annual, for 179 locations at which ESL estimates
from all 3 studies are available (left column) and for the 7,283 locations for which the model-based ESL estimates are available (right column). Central
estimate (median),lower and upper bounds (that is, 5th and 95th quantiles) are shown from top to bottom respectively. The + sign associated to 2°C and
5°C indicates projections that include SEJ-derived estimates of ice-sheet contribution to SLC.

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