1

INTRODUCTION TO
STATISTICS & PROBABILITY
Chapter 1:
Looking at Data—Distributions

1.4 Density Curves and Normal Distributions

Dr. Nahid Sultana

12/5/22
 1.4 Density Curves and Normal
2
Distributions
Objectives
Ø Density curves
Ø Measuring center and spread for density curves
Ø Normal distributions
Ø The 68-95-99.7 rule
Ø Standardizing observations
Ø Using the standard Normal Table
Ø Inverse Normal calculations
Ø Normal quantile plots
Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22
 Exploring Quantitative Data
3

Use graphical and numerical tools for describing distributions:

1. Always plot your data: make a graph (Histogram, stemplot);

2. Look for the overall pattern (shape, center, and spread) and
for striking deviations such as outliers;
3. Calculate a numerical summary to briefly describe center
and spread.
4. Sometimes the overall pattern of a large number of
observations is so regular that we can describe it by a
smooth curve.
Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22
 Density Curves
4

Example: Here is a histogram of

vocabulary scores of 947 seventh
graders.

The smooth curve drawn over

the histogram is a mathematical
model for the distribution.
 Density Curves
5

The areas of the shaded bars in this

histogram represent the proportion
of scores in the observed data that
are less than or equal to 6.0. This
proportion is equal to 0.303.

Now the area under the smooth

curve to the left of 6.0 is shaded. If
the scale is adjusted so the total
area under the curve is exactly 1,
then this curve is called a density
curve. The proportion of the area to
the left of 6.0 is now equal to 0.293.
 Density Curves (Cont…)
6

A density curve is a curve that:

Ø is always on or above the horizontal axis

Ø has an area of exactly 1 underneath it

v A density curve describes the overall pattern of a distribution.

v The area under the curve and above any range of values on the
horizontal axis is the proportion of all observations that fall in that
range. In short,

area = proportion
Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22
 Density Curves (Cont…)
7

W h ich is a valid proper ty of a density cur ve?

A. Cur ve that goes above and b e low the x -a x is
B. Total area under the cur ve is 1.00 (or 100%)
C. Proportion of values in an inter val is g iven by counting the
number of X values in that inter val and d ivid ing by the total
number of X values.
Density curves are smooth curves that follow the shape of the
corresponding histogram.
A. True
B. False
Reaso ns fo r modeling data wit h de nsity curves:
1. Easier to investigate popula t ion proper ties.
2. Can estimate p ro b a b ilities of various outcomes.
Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22
 Median and mean of a density curve
8

Ø The mean of a density curve is the balance point, at which the curve
would balance if it were made of solid material.
Ø The median of a density curve is the equal-areas point―the point that
divides the area under the curve in half.
ü The mean and the median are the same for a symmetric density curve.
They both lie at the center of the curve.
ü The mean of a skewed curve is pulled away from the median in the
direction of the long tail.

Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22

 Density Curves
9

Ø The mean and standard deviation computed from

actual observations (data) are denoted by x and s,
respectively.

Ø The mean and standard deviation of the actual

distribution represented by the density curve are denoted
by µ (“mu”) and s (“sigma”), respectively.
 Normal Distributions
10

Ø The most important class of density curve is the normal curves. They
describe the normal distributions.
Ø All Normal curves are symmetric, single-peaked, and bell-shaped.
Ø The exact density curve of a particular normal distribution is determined
by its mean µ and standard deviation σ; N(µ, σ ).
Ø µ is located at the center of the symmetric curve and σ control the spread
of the curve (the distance from the center to the change-of-curvature
points on either side). change-of-
curvature points

Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22

 A family of density curves
11

Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22

The 68-95-99.7 Rule
12

All normal curves N(µ,σ) share the

same properties:

Ø About 68% of the observations fall within σ of µ.

Ø About 95% of the observations fall within 2σ of µ.
Ø About 99.7% of the observations fall within 3σ of µ.

Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22

 The 68-95-99.7 Rule (Cont…)
13

Example: In a recent year 76,531 tenth-grade Indiana students took

the English/language exam. The mean score was 572 and the
standard deviation was 51. Assuming that these scores are
approximately Normally distributed, N(572, 51).

Q. Use the 68–95–99.7 rule to give a range of scores that

includes 95% of these students.

Solution: 572 ± 2(51) i.e. 470 to 674.

Q. Use the 68–95–99.7 rule to give a range of scores that

includes 99.7% of these students.

Solution: 572 ± 3(51) i.e. 419 to 725

Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22
 The 68-95-99.7 Rule (Cont…)
14

Example: The distribution of Iowa Test of Basic Skills (ITBS) vocabulary

scores for 7th-grade students is close to Normal distribution, is N(6.84,
1 .55).
1. Sketch the Normal density curve for this distribution.
2. What percent of ITBS vocabulary scores are less than 3.74?
3. What percent of the scores are between 5.29 and 9.94?

Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22

 Standardizing Observations
15

Ø To standardize a value, subtract the mean of the distribution and then

divide by the standard deviation.
Ø Changing to these units is called standardizing.
If a variable x has a distribution with mean µ and standard deviation σ, then
the standardized value of x, or its z-score, is
x- µ
z

The standard Normal distribution is the

Normal distribution with µ=0 and
σ =1. i.e., the standard Normal
distribution is N(0,1).

Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22

 The Standard Normal Table
16

All Normal distributions are the same when we standardize and we can
find areas under any Normal curve from a single table.

The Standard Normal Table

Table A is a table of areas under the standard Normal curve. The table
entry for each value z is the area under the curve to the left of z.
Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22
 The Standard Normal Table
17

Suppose we want to find the proportion of observations from the

standard Normal distribution that are less than 0.81. We can use
Table A:

P(z < 0.81) = .7910

Z .00 .01 .02

0.7 .7580 .7611 .7642
0.8 .7881 .7910 .7939
0.9 .8159 .8186 .8212

area = proportion
17Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22
 Normal Calculations
18

Find the proportion of observations from the standard Normal

distribution that are between –1.25 and 0.81.

Can you find the same proportion using a different approach?

1 – (0.1056+0.2090)
= 1 – 0.3146 = 0.6854

18
Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22
 Normal Calculations (Cont…)
How to Solve Problems Involving Normal Distributions
19

Ø Express the problem in terms of the observed variable x.

Ø Draw a picture of the distribution and shade the area of interest
under the curve.
Ø Perform calculations.
Ø Standardize x to restate the problem in terms of a standard
Normal variable z.
Ø Use Table A and the fact that the total area under the curve
is 1 to find the required area under the standard Normal
curve.
Ø Write your conclusion in the context of the problem.
Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22
 Normal Calculations (Cont…)
20

According to the Health and Nutrition Examination Study of 1976–

1980, the heights (in inches) of adult men aged 18–24 are N(70, 2.8).

Q. How tall must a man be in the lower 10% for men aged 18–24?

N(70, 2.8)

.10

? 70
Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22
 Normal Calculations (Cont…)
21

Q. How tall must a man be in the lower N(70, 2.8)

10% for men aged 18–24?
.10
Solution: ? 70
Ø Look up the closest
probability (closest to 0.10) in z .07 .08 .09
the table.
-1.3 .0853 .0838 .0823
Ø Find the corresponding
standardized score. -1.2 .1020 .1003 .0985

-1.1 .1210 .1190 .1170

21
Z = –1.28
Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22
 Normal Calculations (Cont…)
22

Q. How tall must a man be in the lower N(70, 2.8)

10% for men aged 18–24?
.10
Solution: Cont… ? 70
We need to “unstandardize” the z-score to find the observed value x:
x
z x z
x = 70 + z (2.8)
= 70 + [(-1.28 ) ´ (2.8)]
= 70 + (-3.58) = 66.42
A man would have to be approximately 66.42 inches tall or less to
place in the lower 10% of all men in the population.
Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22
 Normal Quantile Plots
23

One way to assess if a distribution is indeed approximately normal

is to plot the data on a normal quantile plot.

Ø If the distribution is indeed normal the plot will show a

straight line, indicating a good match between the data and a
normal distribution.

Ø Systematic deviations from a straight line indicate a non-

normal distribution. Outliers appear as points that are far
away from the overall pattern of the plot.
Copyright © Nahid Sultana 2017-2018. 12/5/22
 Normal Quantile Plots (Cont…)
24

Good fit to a straight line: Curved pattern: the data are not
the distribution of rainwaternormally distributed. Instead, the
pH values is close to normal.data are right skewed: A few
individuals have particularly long
survival times.
Normal quantile plots are complex to do by hand, but they are
standard features in most statistical software.