ANALYSING TRAFFIC LOAD USING MULTIPLE PROBABILITY
SIMULATION
R.R.Bibisha1 , Prof.N.Ajitha2
1,2
Department of Civil Engineering, Arunachala College of Engineering for
Women,Manavilai
ABSTRACT
In developing country like India, transportation play a vital role in its
development since there is a need to analyse traffic volume and develop alternative
to minimize its intensity. In this project, traffic flow in Nagercoil city is analysed and
suggestion of fly over throughout the respective town and connecting that with the
proposed four lane network. Thus, this project will be helpful in making decisions
for the improvement of road transport in achieving its standard equal to a
metropolitan city. Multiple probability simulation is a technique used to simulate the
random sampling to obtain numerical results considering the future flaws using
MATLAB software. When the traffic size increases to infinity this method helps in
improving the distribution of traffic so that the statistical interaction between the
vehicles [Link] project enables the use of various prediction techniques
including the fluctuations and helps in making decision to the improvement of
highways considering various constraints in its applicability. This also ensures the
use of proposed four lane network with the new alternative for its effectiveness. Use
of sensors or video cameras minimizes the human errors in data collection by manual
method. This act as an advancement of similar research done in Bangladesh and also
as an evidence for the need for construction of Flyover Bridge in considering the
welfare of future generation. It also helps in reducing the delay of many construction
projects due to late delivery of resources. Through the effectiveness of this project
future delay of about four times more than the current delay can be reduced to some
extent.
1. INTRODUCTION network and its flow characters a new
model for traffic assignment has been
1.1 GENERAL
developed based on result obtained from
As Nagercoil is the town that this method. The results obtained by this
connects a state capital method helps in determining the
(Thiruvananthapuram) with the fifth possibility and applicability of this
major city of Tamil Nadu (Tirunelveli) advanced project. The highway
during peak hours, the existing NH 47 construction development involves
becomes inadequate to fulfil the present huge investment and requires careful
traffic volume needs. Thus, this project analysis on changes in political, social
serves as an alternative to reduce the and environmental conditions. Proposed
congestion in and around the town and method also select the optimal design
is attractive option for government alternative in a timely manner in
organisation, local residents and may be addition to expansion acquisition and
enough to prevent traffic accidents both rehabilitation during the operation phase
temporary and permanently. When these of the extended network of road. This
infrastructure project demand large paper addresses the sustainable
scale changes to our existing highway development of highway facility with
there may be a benefit of thinking the increase of demand and to benefit
outside the box to improve the standard the users throughout its service life of
line and bring convenience to the world the highway.
moving again. The traffic volume model 1.2 SCOPE OF THE PROJECT
based on Multiple probability method
• The study is related to National
has been used on traffic analysis for an
Highway Department since it
urban road network. This method
involves NH 47, NH 44, and
improves the stability of flow ratio
NH7.
adopted as the important parameter of
these model. Considering the data
available about the local area road
• This study helps in identifying suggesting some of the remedial
the possibilities to remove future measures such as changing 4-lane to 6-
traffic volume. lane or by providing more public
• It removes the delay in transport can be recommended based on
construction project due to late the outcomes of the work.
delivery of resources.
2.2 Estimating Annual Average
Daily Traffic Using Daily
2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Adjustment Factor
In accordance with the topic there are
This study dealt with estimating
limited studies and the related literatures
AADT which serves the important basic
were studied to gain information useful
data in transportation sector. AADT
for the development of this topic. Some
estimation is fundamental to the analysis
of those relevant literatures are as
of transportation data sets and the
follows;
management of transportation systems.
2.1 Traffic volume study This model uses monthly or weekly
Bangladesh. adjustment factors to estimate AADT.
So this study used daily factor to
This work emphasis on traffic
estimate AADT and compared with
volume and the analysis was carried out
advanced research. Daily factor is
through primary traffic flow surveys at
produced 365 factors on one permanent
AUST-Flyover junction to Shatrasta
traffic count. It predicts the future
Junction in Dhaka city. The current
service level of the road based on the
work studies traffic characteristics in the
planned traffic volume and determines
city of Dhaka at one selected priority
the geometry of new roads.
junction. Traffic flow is studied by
manual methods. Also the present status
of traffic flow at the junction, traffic 2.3 Real Traffic data based
survey is conducted The results from the Evaluation of Vehicular Traffic
present study are helpful in controlling Environment and State-of-the-art
the traffic at the intersection and also in with Future Issues in Location
Centric Data Dissemination for In this paper traffic forecasting
VANETs model for a road section based on a
computer model of the transportation
This study has been carried out system of a traffic gravity section has
with three main objectives: (i) to been analyzed. This approach allows the
analyze the impact of dynamic traffic structure of the road network.
environment on the design of data
dissemination techniques. (ii) To 3. DATA COLLECTION
characterize location centric data
Based on the sequence of steps the
dissemination in terms of functional and
project is carried out;
qualitative behavior of protocols,
properties, and strengths and i. Selection of junction to collect
weaknesses, and (iii) to find some future traffic data to be used
research directions in information
ii. Conduct reconnaissance survey
dissemination based on location..
or feasibility study followed by
real time data collection is done
2.4 Traffic Data Collection and
using the sensors or video
Analysis
cameras
This paper facilitate the iii. From the obtained data,
assessment of present and future traffic distribution of future data
demands, for the development of need- prediction is done considering
based infrastructure accurate the flaws and fluctuations by
information and continuous monitoring implementing Monte Carlo
of traffic by appropriate method. simulation
planning, design, construction and iv. Analyzing the current system of
maintenance of roads in Botswana that network for the calculated future
take full account of local conditions. traffic volume and the delays.
v. According to the results obtained
2.5 Traffic Forecasting Model for a
suitable solution for the
Road Section
prototype is formulated.
vi. Suggestions were given for the 3 Chettikulam 43270 26725
improvement of existing national
4 Kottar 21270 22671
highways based on the result
vii. Conclude the result and discuss 5 Vadasery 15550 18079
its advantages and applicability
in real time practices considering Table 3.2 Volume of vehicles per week
the delay.
3.1 Delay Time Calculation
FROM THE TOWN TOWARDS THE TOWN
Delay in travel time defined as time
PLACES
TWO FOUR HEA- TWO FOUR HEA- difference between actual time travelled
WHE- WHE- VY WHE- WHE- VY
ELER ELER ELER ELER
and the free time during travel. It is the
additional time travelled by a driver or a
KOTTAR 1758 192 162 630 498 276
passenger during their travel.
CHETTIKUL 420 132 54 564 120 66
AM
Dz = L [(1/Vz) – (1/Vf)]
MATHIYAS 900 492 108 990 492 108
WARD
where
VADASERY 360 318 186 504 258 36
Dz = Delay
OZHUGINAS 240 144 144 378 186 78
L = Length of traffic congested area
ERY
Vz = Speed in the traffic congested area
Table 3.1 Volume of traffic in
Nagercoil in 1 hour Vf = Freeway speed
Site 1: L = 0.7, Vz = 1, Vf = 40,
[Link]. Junction CVPD PCU
Therefore, Dz = 40.95
Site 2: L = 0.6, Vz = 1, Vf = 35,
Therefore, Dz = 34.971
1 Veppamoodu 33730 77764
Site 3: L = 0.5, Vz = 1, Vf = 45,
2 Mathiyasward 17720 28911 Therefore, Dz = 29.33
Site 4: L = 0.3, Vz = 1, Vf = 30,
Therefore, Dz = 17.4
Site 5: L = 0.4, Vz = 1, Vf = 35,
Therefore, Dz = 23.314
Site 6: L = 0.6, Vz = 1, Vf = 35,
Therefore, Dz = 34.971
Site 7: L = 0.4, Vz = 1, Vf = 40,
Therefore, Dz = 23.4
Site 8: L = 0.5, Vz = 1, Vf = 40,
Therefore, Dz = 29.25
Site 9: L = 0.4, Vz = 1, Vf = 30,
Therefore, Dz = 23.2
Site 10: L = 0.6, Vz = 1, Vf = 35,
Therefore, Dz = 34.971
Average delay time = (40.95 + 34.971
+ 29.33 + 17.4 + 23.314 + 34.971 +
23.4 + 29.25 + 23.2 + 34.971)/10
= 29.18 minutes
4 FUTURE DATA PREDICTION
After 5 and 20 years the traffic growth is
predicted and is represented as graph
using MATLAB as follows;
5. ALTERNATIVE
SUGGESTION
Since the future traffic volume
and the delay related to it is vast which
results in innumerable problems in the
development of city also the successful
of construction project it is necessary
an urge to develop an alternative in
this period itself. Thus the suggested
alternative which suits best to the
demand as follows;
Average of present traffic volume
= 13770
Average number of future traffic
volume = 68850
Delay time in material delivery with
respect to present traffic volume =
29.18 min
Therefore delay time in material
delivery with respect to future traffic
volume = (29.18/13770) X 68850
=145.900 minutes Fig 5.1 Design of Fly over as solution
Heavy load vehicles. It is collected for
continuous weekday and weekends.
5.1 Advantages of alternative
This calculated data helps in identifying
and suggesting a proper alternative to
• This reduces the delay time upto
the highway construction. Based on this
five times the predicted delay.
suitable alternative is also suggested for
• It also improves the traffic flow
its application. A new construction
and congestion in the upcoming
increases the efficiency of the road
years after its implementation.
traffic and reduces delay upto 5 times
6 CONCLUSION the [Link] determine if a
community is employing
In this project proper collection of data appropriate transportation options,
includes the peak hour and normal hour monetary costs, comfort, safety, and
is distributed for the future. The Environmental impacts should be
collection of data includes two assessed as future study, an extension of
wheelers, LCV, Public transports, and the projec
3. Attila M. Nagya and Vilmos
Simona, (2018),’Survey on
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