PERSEPECTIVES

THE RETURN OF

COALITION
POLITICS
AND ITS IMPACT

CHANDRA SHEKHAR
AZAD'S VICTORY
POTENTIAL RE-BIRTH OF
DALIT POLITICS

PSIR CURRENT
AFFAIRS JULY 2024
CONTENTS
1 DISRUPTION AND DISORDER WILL DEFINE EAST
ASIA IN 2024

2 WHERE DOES INDIA STAND WITH RESPECT TO THE G-7?

3 A REBOOT AT G7

4 MODI 3.0 AND THE LIKELY TRAJECTORY OF INDIA-

WEST ASIA TIES
6 FROM CHINA TILT TO A BALANCING WITH BEIJING
AND DELHI
7 “IT’S TIME FOR INDIA TO RECLAIM ITS VOICE ON
TIBET”
8 REIMAGINING INDIAN FEDERALISM

9 THE RETURN OF COALITION POLITICS AND ITS IMPACT

ON FEDERALISM IN INDIA

10 CHANDRA SHEKHAR AZAD'S VICTORY IN NAGINA

 Welcome to the June 2024 edition of Further, we discuss the emerging role of
"Perspectives," your guide to the latest paradiplomacy, the current crisis of liberalism
developments in political science and in India, and the renewed significance of India-
international relations, curated by the RausIAS Iran relations. The potential regional impact
PSIR team. This magazine aims to illuminate following the death of Iran's President is
the complexities of current affairs for UPSC examined, along with an in-depth analysis of
aspirants, grounding your understanding in the religion-based reservations in India.
core principles of justice, equality, liberty, and
development. Lastly, we address the growing importance of
digital competition law in the contemporary
In this edition, we explore pivotal topics digital age.
shaping the global and regional landscape. We
analyze India's evolving neighborhood policy, Join us in this edition of "Perspectives" as we
advocating for a broader focus beyond Pakistan. provide the essential insights needed to navigate
We also delve into the strategic implications of these complex issues and equip you for the
the Russia-China alliance and the waning era challenges of the UPSC examination.
of unipolarity in global politics.

Rahuil
P u ri
PSIR OPTIONAL FACULTY
RAUS IAS STUDY CIRCLE
 DISRUPTION AND
DISORDER WILL DEFINE
EAST ASIA IN 2024
As the US’s global leadership in upholding the rules-based order will be stretched, regional
actors will have to rise to the occasion and maintain order and stability in 2024
Titli Basu (ORF)
As the 2024 election season unfolds, the China portrays Taiwan’s election as a choice
Indo-Pacific geopolitics will be increasingly between “war and peace.” Disinformation
influenced by competing norms, narratives, campaigns, economic coercion, and military
values, and strategic realities, testing old presence in the South China Sea pressure
alliances and alignments. Taiwan’s Democratic Taiwan and the region. North Korea’s rhetoric
Progressive Party (DPP) winning for the third destabilizes the inter-Korean balance, and
time has unsettled Beijing, heightening regional Russia’s use of North Korean missiles in
tensions. While Taiwan's democracy is Ukraine complicates regional calculations.
applauded, Beijing is working to weaken Taipei’s Increased military exercises highlight the
diplomatic allies. importance of trilateral alliances shaping
Northeast Asian politics and order. North Korea
The rules-based international order faces strengthens military ties with Russia and China
challenges from the Russia-Ukraine war, the against the US-led order, while the US and its
Israel-Hamas conflict, and the Red Sea situation, allies enhance strategic coordination.
increasing risks of strategic miscalculations.
Despite Sino-US Defense Policy Coordination Beijing tries to leverage the China-Japan-South
Talks aiming to prevent conflict, East Asian Korea trilateral framework to drive a wedge
flashpoints remain hot. between Washington and its allies, but Tokyo
and Seoul focus on regional trade, limiting its
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasizes effectiveness. The 2024 elections in Taiwan, the
the importance of Sino-US cooperation. He US, and Japan will significantly influence
argues that Washington is creating an Indo- regional geopolitics. Japan might see a
Pacific NATO through its “five-four-three-two” leadership change due to domestic political
strategy. The stakes in Taiwan’s political future dynamics, impacting its China policy.
are high, with President Xi Jinping seeing
unification as inevitable and President Biden The possibility of Trump returning to power
framing the issue as a competition between raises questions about alliance management
democracies and autocracies. amid ongoing conflicts. The run-up to the US
presidential election will further polarise politics
and test American democracy and institutions.
 In geoeconomics, G7 elites prioritise economic Marching into 2024, US allies in East Asia
security, focusing on export control and de- must enhance their diplomatic efforts, matching
risking strategies. Effectiveness depends on resources and responsibilities, to counter
enforceability, as seen in the US Steel and authoritarian forces. Balancing national
Nippon Steel deal. The IMF warns that de-risking interests with regional stability and global
strategies by major economies will have global security will be crucial in maintaining a resilient
impacts, and comprehensive reforms in China Indo-Pacific amidst evolving challenges and
could generate positive spillovers. uncertainties.

WHERE DOES INDIA STAND WITH

RESPECT TO THE G-7?
Suhashini Haider
The G7 was formed in 1975 as an informal Importance for India: The G-7 outreach is
forum for the leaders of the world's major vital for India to showcase achievements and
industrialized democracies to discuss economic perspectives. Prime Minister Modi emphasized
and political issues. G7 is an intergovernmental India's democratic success, technology, AI for
political forum consisting of Canada, France, global equality, and addressing Global South
Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and concerns. He held bilateral meetings with
the United States. The European Union (EU) is several leaders, including a notable meeting
also represented within the G7 but is not a with Ukraine President Zelenskyy and a brief
member state. interaction with U.S. President Biden.

G-7 Summit Objectives: The summit aimed to India's Interactions: Modi had a less cordial
bridge differences between the West and other meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau,
regions, fund support for Ukraine, invest in highlighting strained bilateral ties but used the
Africa, address migration, climate change, and G-7 outreach to meet global leaders and set
AI challenges. It included making $50 billion priorities for his new term.
available for Ukraine, focusing on clean energy
investments in Africa, criticizing China's trade Future of G-7: The G-7 faces criticism for
practices, and engaging with leaders from 10 being elitist and non-inclusive, lacking
countries, including India, on Global South representation from major economies like
concerns. China, India, and Brazil. It is challenged by the
expanding BRICS group. The G-7's inability to
India's Role in G-7: India has been a key part influence significant global conflicts and
of the G-7 process, gaining attention for its geopolitical issues raises questions about its
growth during the 2000s global financial relevance. Future effectiveness and composition
collapse. As a significant member of the Global will be tested, with the next summit in Canada in
South and G-20 troika, Prime Minister Modi is a 2025, and it remains to be seen if India will
central figure at G-7 outreaches. continue to participate on the margins.
 A REBOOT AT G7
The great churn triggered by growing interdependence of the European and Asian
theaters is accompanied by the rise of middle powers with influence. India can use this
window to increase national power
C Raja Mohan
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent The Biden Administration has strengthened
visits to North Korea and Vietnam, along with alliances with South Korea and developed a
this week's US presidential debate between Joe trilateral arrangement with Seoul and Tokyo.
Biden and Donald Trump, underscore the China has also revived trilateral cooperation
deepening connections between European and with Japan and South Korea. Vietnam's hosting
Asian security, offering new strategic of Putin, Biden, and Xi within nine months
opportunities for middle powers like India. highlights its strategic balancing act between
China and the US, while renewing ties with
The new “Eurasian” geopolitics has four Russia.
significant aspects. First, Asia is no longer just a
passive participant in European geopolitics; it Third, as Asia’s strategic maneuvering
actively contributes. Historically, Asian increases, Western dilemmas deepen,
resources significantly influenced European particularly in the US, where there's a debate
imperial powers, notably through Indian over prioritizing military efforts in Europe
military contributions in the World Wars. Now, versus Asia. Some Republicans argue the US
Asian states independently shape the balance of should focus on Asia rather than Ukraine, while
power in Europe, as seen in the responses to the the Biden Administration recognizes China as
Ukraine war, where both Russia and Western the main challenge but remains committed to
Europe are courting Asian nations for support. supporting Ukraine. This debate is expected to
feature in the Trump-Biden discussion.
Second, Asia has become a major arms
supplier in European conflicts, exemplified by Finally, the US wants Europe to take greater
North Korea supplying ammunition to Russia responsibility for its defense, a stance both
and South Korea sending arms to Ukraine. Biden and Trump agree on. This means
China, while not supplying arms, supports Eurasian nations should help balance Russia
Russia in other ways, and the US is pushing and China, easing America’s burden. While
Japan to aid Ukraine. Putin's recent visit to Europe struggles to unify its defense efforts,
North Korea and the signing of a mutual Asian states like Australia, India, Japan, and
security treaty illustrate Russia's renewed South Korea are more willing to contribute to
interest in Pyongyang. North Korea, in turn, uses regional security. Europe is anxious about
its relationship with Russia to maneuver among Russia but divided on China, balancing
China, Japan, South Korea, and the US. economic ties with strategic concerns.
 The rising interdependence of European and Asian theatres is paralleled by the growing influence
of middle powers like India. The US seeks strong security partnerships with these powers to
counterbalance China and Russia, offering them an opportunity to enhance their national power
and military capabilities. However, this strategic window is temporary, and India must swiftly
modernize its defense industrial base and expand arms production to achieve true strategic
autonomy.

MODI 3.0 AND THE LIKELY TRAJECTORY

OF INDIA-WEST ASIA TIES
Given the strong convergence of economic and security interests, it is certain that India-West
Asia ties are going to flourish further.
ALVITE NINGTHOUJAM (ORF)
Significant improvements were made with the Oil and energy trade remains vital, with over
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and Israel 50% of India's crude oil and 70% of gas imports
during Modi's previous terms, highlighted by from the Gulf. Despite diversification, Gulf
External Affairs Minister Jaishankar's visit to suppliers will continue to dominate India's
Abu Dhabi, marking a vital strategic imports. Renewables are a new cooperation
partnership. area, with agreements between India, Saudi
Arabia, and UAE promoting clean energy. UAE's
India's partnerships with the Middle East Masdar plans to acquire Ayana Renewable
(ME) will likely strengthen and expand in Power, boosting renewable energy collaboration.
various sectors such as military-security, science
and technology, and energy. Economic and India's growing role in the Indian Ocean
energy cooperation remains crucial, with Region (IOR) will enhance maritime security and
significant trade growth with Saudi Arabia, UAE, naval cooperation with GCC countries. Joint
and Israel. The India-UAE CEPA aims to boost exercises aim to ensure the safety of trade and
bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030, while freedom of navigation. Defence industrial
Saudi Arabia's Strategic Partnership Council will cooperation, particularly in maritime
steer trade and security ties, targeting $100 technology, can be explored.
billion in trade.
India-ME ties are expected to flourish due to
Economic ties with the ME are growing as strong economic and security interests. Formal
both sides seek mutual investments to achieve groundwork since 2014 has set the stage for
socio-economic reform plans like Saudi Vision further bilateral ties. Mini-lateral partnerships,
2030. GCC became India's largest regional like the India-Middle East-Europe-Economic-
trading partner in FY 2022-23, with efforts to Corridor (IMEEC), will expand cooperation. India
finalize a Free Trade Agreement. should remain aware of regional security
dynamics and China's growing influence in the
ME.
 FROM CHINA TILT TO A BALANCING
WITH BEIJING AND DELHI
With Male facing increasing domestic and foreign policy challenges, Mohamed Muizzu is possibly
aiming at a reconciliation with India

HARSH V. PANT & ADITYA GOWDARA SHIVAMURTHY

India has increased its development
Mohamed Muizzu has pursued a "pro-
assistance, replaced military personnel with
Maldives" policy aimed at reducing the country's
civilian experts, and extended a $50 million
dependence on India, strengthening ties with
treasury bill on zero interest. These measures
China, and diversifying its foreign relations.
reflect India's intent to maintain engagement
This approach reflects his domestic political
with the Maldives and foster mutual respect and
strategy, which leverages nationalist and
cooperation.
religious sentiments. His party, which led the
"India Out" campaign, has utilized anti-Indian
Muizzu is now attempting to balance
rhetoric to consolidate its voter base in the
relations with both China and India rather than
Maldives.
aligning solely with one. This strategic
recalibration is driven by the need to address
The Maldives faces significant economic
economic challenges and leverage competition
challenges, including a high debt-to-GDP ratio,
between India and China to benefit the Maldives.
low revenues, and declining foreign reserves.
The invitation extended by India for Muizzu to
These economic difficulties have prompted a
attend Narendra Modi's swearing-in signifies
reassessment of the country's foreign policy.
New Delhi's commitment to maintain bilateral
Muizzu's initial expectations from China have
ties, regardless of the ruling party in the
not fully materialized, despite signing multiple
Maldives.
agreements and upgrading bilateral relations.
China has shown reluctance to invest heavily in
While Muizzu's ties with China remain
the Maldives' infrastructure projects, citing
strong, he has recognized the importance of not
concerns over the country's increasing debt
completely alienating India. By balancing
burden. Instead, Beijing has preferred to offer
relationships with both countries, Muizzu aims
grants over loans.
to maximize the benefits for the Maldives amid
the ongoing regional competition between India
In contrast, India has adopted an
and China. This nuanced approach indicates a
accommodative policy toward the Maldives,
shift in his foreign policy strategy, emphasizing
continuing to engage despite anti-Indian
the importance of maintaining a flexible and
rhetoric and Muizzu's close relations with China.
balanced diplomatic stance.
 “IT’S TIME FOR INDIA TO RECLAIM
ITS VOICE ON TIBET”
Suhasini Haidar
India must avoid ceding the centre stage in its own region on foreign policy and on Tibet issues

The U.S. lawmakers' visit to Dharamshala India has not publicly voiced concerns on
came just after the passage of the ‘Promoting a Tibet’s treatment since its actions since 1959,
Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act’ in such as offering refuge to the Dalai Lama, speak
Congress, awaiting President Biden’s signature. louder. India recognizes the Tibet Autonomous
Democrat and Republican co-authors of the Bill, Region as part of China and has stopped
invited by the Central Tibetan Administration, articulating a ‘One China’ policy since 2010 due
were part of the delegation. to China’s actions.

New Delhi would have anticipated speeches India does not officially recognize the Tibetan
criticizing China's repression of Tibetans, Government or Parliament in Exile beyond
calling for renewed talks between the Dalai organizing mechanisms for Tibetans. Prime
Lama’s representatives and Beijing, and Minister Modi invited the Tibetan Sikyong in
advocating for a Free Tibet. Former House 2014 but not in 2019 or recently.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi emphasized the U.S.'s
clear stance on Tibet's freedom. If India wishes to adopt a more strident
position on Tibet, Indian officials should have
The presence of U.S. officials and lawmakers made the statements addressed by U.S.
in Dharamshala is not new, but a public rally of lawmakers. Allowing the U.S. delegation to speak
this kind in India is recent. The External Affairs from India could diminish India’s influence in
Minister hosted the delegation for dinner, and the region.
the Prime Minister met them, suggesting a
considered decision by New Delhi. Allowing The problem of U.S. leaders sending messages
American politicians to promote a U.S. law and to Beijing from India sidelines India in a
policy among the Tibetan refugee population in significant matter. India’s influence in South
India may convey weakness and risks losing Asia is being reduced by U.S.-China
contestations. India must reclaim its policy
control over its foreign policy narrative on Tibet.
narrative, especially concerning the Dalai
Lama’s succession, without being overshadowed
by other countries.
 REIMAGINING INDIAN FEDERALISM
Shashi Tharoor
The return of coalition governance to New Delhi offers hope

On June 4, 2024, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Regional Parties and Coalition Dynamics
fell short of a majority in the Lok Sabha, relying Despite the BJP’s reduced majority, there are no
on regional partners in the National Democratic clear signs that regional parties within the NDA
Alliance (NDA) to form a coalition government. will bolster India's federal structure. While these
This outcome could potentially revitalize India's parties have secured cabinet positions and state-
federal structure, which has suffered under a specific benefits, they are unlikely to champion
centralized approach since 2014. cooperative federalism. Instead, their focus
remains on local gains rather than
Centralized Federalism under Modi strengthening the federal framework.
Since 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's
government has increasingly centralized power, Modi’s Shift in Federalism
undermining state autonomy. Actions such as As Gujarat's Chief Minister, Narendra Modi
imposing Hindi on southern states, using advocated for decentralized policymaking and
federal agencies against political opponents, and competitive federalism. However, as Prime
mismanaging funds like the PM CARES Fund Minister, his approach has shifted towards
have exemplified this trend. Additionally, the centralization, contradicting his earlier stance
abrogation of Article 370 and fiscal policies that on state autonomy.
favor the central government over states have
further strained federal relations. Reviving Cooperative Federalism
To leverage the coalition government for
Impending Challenges cooperative federalism, opposition-ruled states,
The 91st Amendment, which ensures especially in the south, need to capitalize on the
parliamentary constituencies are based on the BJP’s reduced majority. Reviving the Inter-State
1971 Census, will lapse in 2026. The BJP’s Council, an independent forum for consultation
reluctance to renew this provision raises fears and coordination, could be a starting point. This
of disenfranchisement for southern states, council, envisioned in Article 263 of the
potentially giving Hindi-speaking states a two- Constitution and established in the 1990s, has
thirds majority. The Fifteenth Finance degenerated under the Ministry of Home Affairs.
Commission’s decision to base allocations on Restoring its independence and authority is
the 2011 Census has already exacerbated crucial for fostering cooperative federalism.
regional imbalances, sending more tax money
from the south to the north.
India's diversity demands a federal system that respects regional differences while promoting
a sense of common belonging. Centralizing power risks fracturing the delicate bonds that
hold the nation together. A renewed focus on cooperative federalism, facilitated by a coalition
government and empowered forums like the Inter-State Council, is essential for maintaining
unity and addressing the unique challenges of each state.
 THE RETURN OF COALITION
POLITICS AND ITS IMPACT ON
FEDERALISM IN INDIA
Louise Tillin
The return of coalition politics and the new electoral dynamics provide an opportunity for a renewed vision of
federalism in India. Empowering inter-governmental bodies and fostering a cooperative approach can help restore
trust between the Centre and the states, benefiting all parties and supporting India’s diverse and dynamic
democracy.

The 2024 general election has heralded the Less populous, Opposition-dominated
return of coalition politics in India, bringing the southern states feared a redistribution of
questions of federalism and Centre-state parliamentary representation favoring the
relations to the forefront. The BJP’s increased populous BJP-dominated northern states,
reliance on regional allies and its expanded threatening the fiscal federal pact. The return of
presence in southern India offers a potential for coalition government introduces multiple
a federal reset, though its realization remains centers of power, potentially restoring balance
uncertain. and trust in federalism.

Historical Context and Recent Changes Since Role of Regional Parties While regional
2014, significant changes have been introduced parties are key power-brokers in the coalition,
by the BJP in Centre-state relations. The their focus has been on advancing their own
abolition of the Planning Commission and the interests and those of their states, often without
establishment of Niti Aayog marked the a broader vision for federalism. This special-
beginning of Modi's first term, aiming to interest regional politics could threaten the
strengthen cooperative federalism. The wider federal bargain, extending the idea of a
introduction of the Goods and Services Tax “double engine” government beyond the BJP.
(GST) in 2017 was another major reform in
fiscal federalism. However, Modi’s second term Challenges to Federalism Coalition partners
saw a shift towards centralization with the may not significantly diverge from the BJP’s “one
abrogation of Article 370, and the proposal of nation” vision. Historical support for
“One nation, one election” further emphasized a centralizing policies by regional party members
unification agenda. suggests that their presence in government may
not necessarily advocate for stronger state
Tensions and the Need for Balance The interests. This period of political change,
elections highlighted tensions over federalism, however, offers a moment for reflection and a
particularly with the pending exercise of potential reset of Centre-state relations, which is
delimitation, which raised concerns about a in the long-term interest of all parties.
potential north-south divide.
 Strengthening Institutional Dialogue Prime Building Trust through Delimitation To build
Minister Modi has called for cooperative Centre- trust over the delimitation exercise, a
state working relationships. Strengthening the transparent process ensuring consensus among
institutional space for dialogue, particularly all states is essential. Learning from the
through empowering the Inter-State Council, is consensus-building process that led to the
crucial. Established after the Sarkaria introduction of GST, a similar approach can
Commission’s recommendations, the Council respect principles of representation and
has largely fallen into abeyance. Granting it redistribution without diminishing state
greater independence and statutory autonomy.
responsibilities would enhance its legitimacy
and effectiveness in dispute resolution and
policy coordination.

CHANDRA SHEKHAR AZAD'S VICTORY

IN NAGINA
Dalit politics in India has undergone significant evolution
since independence. Initially, Dalit leaders like Dr. B.R.
Ambedkar championed for the rights and social justice of
the Dalit community, leading to the formation of the Indian
Constitution which enshrines provisions for their upliftment.
Over the decades, Dalit political movements have sought to
address the systemic discrimination and socio-economic
challenges faced by the community. The rise of the Bahujan
Samaj Party (BSP) under Kanshi Ram and Mayawati marked
a significant shift, with Dalits asserting political power and
influence. However, Dalit politics has faced challenges such
as internal divisions, co-optation by mainstream parties, and
the need to balance caste-based identity politics with
broader socio-economic issues.
 Chandra Shekhar Azad's victory in Nagina Azad's approach contrasts with that of the BSP
marks a significant moment in Dalit politics in under Mayawati, who moved away from the
Uttar Pradesh. Despite a strong win in a Bahujan matrix to a more inclusive Sarvajan
reserved seat, Azad has maintained a distance formula, which some believe diluted the party's
from both the Indian National Democratic focus on OBCs and impacted its electoral
Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) and the National strength. Azad's emphasis on the Kanshiram
Democratic Alliance (NDA), emphasizing his formula, focusing on the underprivileged across
commitment to justice for the underprivileged all communities but avoiding power-sharing
irrespective of political affiliations. This with upper castes, has resonated with many
independent stance has not been well-received Dalits.
by either alliance, with suspicions from some SP
members about his political motives. In Saharanpur, Azad is seen as a successor to
Mayawati, inspiring confidence among young
The BJP's dominance in reserved seats has Dalit voters with his activism. Despite this, some
diminished, with a notable shift in favor of the elders remain loyal to Mayawati, viewing Azad as
SP and Congress. The Azad Samaj Party a potential future leader. BAMCEF members
(Kanshiram) has made significant inroads, highlight the temporary nature of the current
particularly in Nagina, reflecting Azad's growing political shift, stressing that sustained support
influence among Dalits and backward Muslims. will depend on the actions of other leaders like
This shift has been attributed to his grassroots Akhilesh Yadav and their commitment to
activism, including his role in anti-NRC protests protecting constitutional provisions and
and his support for victims of police brutality. reservations.

The BJP's dominance in reserved seats has

Azad's independent diminished, with a notable shift in favor of the
victory and his ideological SP and Congress. The Azad Samaj Party
stance signify a potential (Kanshiram) has made significant inroads,
re-birth of assertive Dalit particularly in Nagina, reflecting Azad's growing
influence among Dalits and backward Muslims.
politics in Uttar Pradesh,
This shift has been attributed to his grassroots
challenging established activism, including his role in anti-NRC protests
political norms and and his support for victims of police brutality.
emphasizing grassroots
activism and
constitutional rights.
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 "I COULD NEVER
EXPECT TO LEARN
SO MUCH IN MY
OWN GRADUATION
SUBJECT"

"SIR SHOULD "RAHUL SIR

"WORDS CAN NOT START WRITING BECAME MY GO TO
EXPRESS THE RAHUL MANDALA PERSON FOR ALL
GRATITUDE WE COLUMN IN GUIDANCE AND
HAVE FOR SIR" NEWSPAPERS" NOT JUST PSIR"

"YOU ARE OXFORD

OF POLITICS AND
FLAG BEARER OF
INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS"

"ONLY ONE
DECISION THAT I "I HAVE NEVER
"DIFFICULT TO
WILL ALWAYS BE EXPERIENCED THIS
BELIEVE YOU HAVE
PROUD ABOUT IS KIND OF TEACHING
CHOOSING RAHUL TAUGHT SO MUCH
EVER IN MY LIFE"
SIR FOR PSIR" IN 150 CLASSSES"