Business Valuation & Analysis Report
Business Valuation & Analysis Report
1
S.No. Particulars
1 Company Overview
2 Global Economy
3 Indian Economy
4 Indian Non-Alcoholic Beverages Industry
5 Analysis of Capital Expenditure and Growth Strategy
6 Financials Prepared By: Yashwant Paliwal
7 Valuation
8 DCF Valuation
9 Relative Valuation (As per Prof. Damodaran Approach)
10 Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
11 Blume - Beta Analysis 5 Year - Monthly
12 DuPont Analysis - Return on Equity & Return on Assets
13 Valuation Summary
14 Disclaimer
2
Company Overview
Product Wise Breakup
Introduction 5.0%
Varun Beverages Ltd (herein referred as VBL) was incorporated on 16th June
1995 at New Delhi as a public limited company under the Companies Act, 23.0%
1956. The company obtained a certificate of commencement of business on
4 July 1995. The company started its operations at Jaipur in 1996. In 1999,
the company started operations at Alwar, Jodhpur and Kosi. 72.0%
Business Presence
Share Price Performance
The Company has presence in 27 States and 7 Union Territories in India and
5 other countries across the world viz. Nepal, Sri Lanka, Morocco, Zambia & 1,600
1,500
Zimbabwe. Further, It is having 37 manufacturing facilities, of which 31 are
1,400
in India and 6 in International Geographies with more than 2,500 owned
1,300
vehicles, more than 2,000 primary distributors and more than 100 depots.
1,200
1,100
Key Products/Brands 1,000
900
PepsiCo CSD brands produced and sold by the company include Pepsi, Diet 800
Pepsi, Seven-Up, Mirinda Orange, Mirinda Lemon, Mountain Dew, Seven-Up 700
Nimbooz Masala Soda, Evervess Soda, Sting and Gatorade. PepsiCo NCB Aug-2023
Aug-2023
Jul-2023
Jul-2023
May-2023
May-2024
Jun-2023
Jun-2023
May-2023
May-2024
Mar-2024
Mar-2024
Nov-2023
Nov-2023
Aug-2023
Dec-2023
Dec-2023
Dec-2023
Sep-2023
Sep-2023
Feb-2024
Feb-2024
Apr-2024
Apr-2024
Oct-2023
Oct-2023
Jan-2024
Jan-2024
brands produced and sold by the company include Tropicana (100%,
Essentials & Delight), Tropicana Slice, Tropicana Fruitz, Seven-Up Nimbooz
and brand Aquafina.
3
Global Economy Global GDP Projections (%)
Overview 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
3.10%
The global economy continues to recover slowly from the blows of the World
pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the cost-of-living crisis. In
retrospect, the resilience has been remarkable. Despite the disruption in
energy and food markets caused by the war, and the unprecedented 1.60%
Advance Economics
tightening of global monetary conditions to combat decades-high inflation,
the global economy has slowed, but not stalled. Yet growth remains slow
and uneven, with growing global divergences. 4.10%
Emerging Economics
The global economy is limping along, not sprinting. Global activity bottomed
out at the end of last year while inflation— both headline and underlying 0.50%
(core)—is gradually being brought under control. But a full recovery toward Euro Area
pre-pandemic trends appears increasingly out of reach, especially in
emerging market and developing economies.
2.50%
US
The IMF's latest projections show global growth slowing from 3.5% in 2022
to 3% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, a slight downgrade from their July forecast.
This growth rate is much lower than the historical average. Headline 1.90%
Japan
inflation is expected to fall from 9.2% in 2022 to 5.9% in 2023 and 4.8% in
2024. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to
drop, but more slowly, reaching 4.5% in 2024. 0.50%
UK
These trends suggest a "soft landing," with inflation decreasing without
causing a major recession, particularly in the U.S., where unemployment is 5.20%
forecast to rise only slightly from 3.6% to 3.9% by 2025. China
In 2023, India showcased exceptional economic resilience by emerging as 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024P 2025P
the world's fastest-growing major economy, boasting a growth rate of 6.3%.
This growth momentum continues to attract investment, supported by
India's ability to offer large-scale operations to multinational corporations, a -5.80%
vast pool of skilled professionals, and its prowess in technological and
innovative advancements. Despite global economic challenges such as India WORLD
inflation and rising interest rates, India's economic performance remained
buoyant, buoyed by robust domestic demand, significant public
infrastructure investment, and a strengthening financial sector.
Indian GDP Quarterly Growth
As we approached 2024, India is well-positioned to maintain its status as
the fastest-growing major economy. With a positive outlook for the future,
Actual VS Projected
the country's economic prospects remain promising, setting the stage for 16.0%
further acceleration in the years ahead. Taking into account the various 14.0%
15.2%
factors, the real GDP growth for 2024-25 has now been projected at 7% 12.0%
13.5%
with quarterly growth of 7.2%, 6.8%, 7% and 6.9% in Q1 to Q4, respectively. 10.0%
The forecast is based on a normal monsoon for the year, which would also 8.0%
support rural consumption demand. The RBI Survey of Professional
8.4%
7.8%
7.7%
6.0%
7.6%
6.8%
Forecasters conducted in January 2024 provides a median forecast of real
6.6%
6.3%
6.2%
6.1%
4.0%
GDP growth of 6.5 per cent in 2024-25, revised upward from the forecast of
4.6%
4.6%
4.4%
4.1%
4.0%
2.0%
6.3% in November 2023 round of the survey.
0.0%
The Indian soft drink market is set to boom as consumption continues to 1.56 1.6
1.52 1.54
rise, promising sustainable growth. The future of the Indian beverage 1.43 1.45 1.47 1.49
1.5 1.38 1.36
industry is bright, thanks to shifting demographics, the increasing spending 1.26
1.34
1.22 1.22
power of young consumers, rapid urbanization, and growing rural
consumption. With 80% of the non-alcoholic beverage sector still informal,
there’s immense potential for organized players to expand. 1
4.54 4.58
4.5 4.39 CSD (at Home) CSD (Out of Home)
4.23
4.09
3.95
4
3.85 3.83
3.69
Conclusion
3.6
3.53 The Indian non-alcoholic beverages market is evolving rapidly, driven by
3.5 3.36 demographic changes, urbanization, and shifting consumer preferences
3.2 towards healthier options. While challenges such as high taxation and
3.03 market saturation persist, the potential for growth remains strong, especially
3 for companies that can innovate and adapt to these changing dynamics.
2.5
2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023P 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P
6
5.0%
400 4.0%
9
Product Wise Revenue Brand Wise Revenue
Financials
Revenue
5.0% 4%
Juice-Based 10%
Drinks
1. Revenue Growth: 23.0% Mountain 47%
• Varun Beverages Limited (VBL) has demonstrated impressive Pepsi
Packed
revenue growth, posting INR 160,426 Crores in CY2023. This Drinking Mirinda
72.0%
represents a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 23% and Water Seven-Up 17%
24% over the last 3 and 5 years, respectively. Such consistent Carbonated Others
growth is indicative of effective management and a strong market Soft
position. Drinks(CDS)
22%
2. Market Outlook:
• Management's optimism regarding the growth potential of the
Indian soft drink market is well-founded. Factors such as
increasing household income, urbanization, rural advancement,
and electrification are expected to drive demand.
• VBL's robust go-to-market strategy, with the addition of 400,000
- 500,000 new outlets annually, underscores its commitment to
Revenue
expanding its market presence. 60%
35,000.00
3. Future Growth Projections: 50%
• Analyst consensus estimates for CY2024 project revenue of INR 30,000.00
40%
2,00,755.0 crores, reflecting a substantial 25.1% increase over 25,000.00
30%
CY2023. This forecast considers the company's historical growth
20,000.00 20%
trends and market dynamics.
• Despite potential challenges such as adverse weather conditions, 15,000.00 10%
health awareness trends, and regulatory policies, VBL is 10,000.00 0%
anticipated to maintain double-digit growth of 21%. This 5,000.00 -10%
projection is supported by the increasing popularity of its energy
drink brand "Sting" and recent capital expenditures aimed at 0.00 -20%
57.1%
constituting 96% of COGS and 44% of revenue. 53.0% 56.0%
54.8%
• Improvement in Gross Margin:
54.3%
53.8%
52.0%
• ross margins increased by 137 bps in CY2023 to 53.8%, driven by
53.0%
53.0%
53.0%
53.0%
53.0%
52.5%
softening PET chip prices. 51.0%
In 2023, the company’s EBITDA increased by 29.5%, reaching ₹3,609.49 1000 20.0%
crores, with EBITDA margins improving by 133 basis points to 22.5%. This
growth was primarily due to the softening of key raw material prices.
SG&A Expenses SG&A Expenses % Revenue
Management remains focused on controlling operating expenses and has
reiterated its EBITDA margin guidance of approximately 21% to 22%.
11
Financials
Inventory Analysis Inventory Days
The company strategically increases its inventory levels during the October- 6000
120
December and January-March quarters to prepare for seasonal demand.
This period coincides with the lowest resin prices of the year, allowing the 5000 115
company to pre-stock raw materials cost-effectively, thereby enhancing
110
gross profitability. A similar strategy is applied to PET chips to boost overall 4000
efficiency. 105
3000 100
Historically, the company maintains inventories at approximately 12.9% of
revenues, with a consistent inventory turnover ratio of around 8x, resulting 95
2000
in an inventory holding period of about 97 days (based on COGS). In
comparison, peer companies in the market maintain a median inventory 90
holding period of 53 days, which is lower than the company's 10-year 1000
85
historical average. Current street estimates indicate that the company's
inventory level may increase by 8 days from the existing 97 days. 0 80
We project that inventory levels will rise by 8 days, from 97 days to 105 days,
Inventory Inventory Days
in FY 2024 and 2025. This increase is attributed to the launch of new
products in the energy drink, value-based dairy, sports drinks, and juices
segments. Following this period, inventory levels are expected to normalize
back to 97 days.
Summary:
• Current inventory holding period: 97 days
• Projected increase: 8 days
• New inventory holding period: 105 days
This Space is left Blank Intentionally
This adjustment reflects the company's strategy to support new product
launches and will normalize afterward.
12
Financials
Trade Receivable Analysis Trade Receivable Days
During the April to June quarter, the company experiences a seasonal 900.0 13
increase in receivables. However, these receivables are efficiently collected
800.0 12
by year-end, maintaining consistent receivables levels of 8-9 days,
representing 2.4% of revenues. 700.0
11
600.0
The company has a robust collection mechanism, with 86% of receivables 10
due for less than six months and no significant credit risk from any single 500.0
counterparty. The company deals only with creditworthy counterparties 9
400.0
who provide security deposits upon onboarding. Receivables are diversified
8
across numerous customers of various scales and geographies, minimizing 300.0
credit impairment risks. 7
200.0
Summary:
• Current receivables days: 8
• Historical receivables % of revenue: 2.4%
• Receivables turnover ratio: 41x
• Peer median receivables days: 7
• Projected receivables days: 8-9
13
Financials
Trade Payable Analysis Trade Payable Days
2,500.0 70
The company has historically maintained a consistent payable period 65
ranging from approximately 44 to 50 days, with a deviation during the 2,000.0 60
COVID-affected year when payables experienced delays. However, in 2023, 55
the payable period was reported at 34 days, reflecting a deviation from the 1,500.0
50
norm. Traditionally, trade payables have represented around 13% of the
45
cost of goods sold (COGS) and approximately 6% of revenue. Street 1,000.0
40
estimates suggest that payable levels will stabilize at around 39 days,
potentially increasing by an additional 5 to 6 days from the current level of 500.0 35
14
Financials
Borrowings (Debt) Analysis Long Term & Short Term Borrowings
In recent years, the company has made significant strides in reducing its long- 100.0%
term (LT) debt, decreasing from approximately 83% of total debt in CY2017 90.0%
32.3%
34.2%
to 61% in CY2023. This reduction has corresponded with improvements in
41.5%
80.0%
46.7%
48.0%
key debt metrics, including a decline in the debt-to-equity ratio from 1.2x to
54.3%
61.4%
0.07x, demonstrating a stronger financial position. Other indicators, such as 70.0%
73.7%
debt to capital (0.5x to 0.4x), debt to assets (0.4x to 0.3x), and debt to
82.7%
83.4%
84.0%
60.0%
EBITDA (2.4x to 1.4x), have also shown favorable trends, indicating a more
50.0%
sustainable debt profile on a year-on-year basis.
40.0%
67.7%
65.8%
Management guidance aims to further reduce the debt-to-EBITDA ratio to 1x
58.5%
30.0%
53.3%
52.0%
from 1.3x in 2022, demonstrating a commitment to continued debt
45.7%
38.6%
20.0%
reduction. The company's strategic approach includes increased utilization of
26.3%
17.3%
16.6%
short-term borrowings (STB) to fund cyclical operations, resulting in higher
16.0%
10.0%
debt levels before peak seasons (December) and lower levels after (June). 0.0%
The company anticipates maintaining debt levels constant in the short term.
Historically, the debt-to-EBITDA ratio has averaged around 1.31x and has ST Borrowings % TB LT Borrowings % TB
consistently improved over the past few years. For forecasting purposes, we
will use the debt-to-EBITDA ratio as the primary indicator, assuming it will
remain around 1.30x for the forecast period, with a yearly improvement of
approximately 10%. This approach accounts for the company's strategy of
reducing LT borrowings while increasing reliance on ST borrowings to meet
seasonal funding requirements. As a result, short-term borrowings are
estimated to represent around 11% of revenue, with a 10% yearly increment
for the forecast period, reflecting the company's focus on improving long-
term borrowing indicators. This Space is left Blank Intentionally
15
Valuation
Objective Not all multiples are applicable to every company. Therefore, the relevant
multiples should be chosen carefully & adjusted for differences between the
The objective is to reach at the intrinsic value of the Varun Beverages Ltd. comparable. For the valuation of Britannia Industries Ltd., we have chosen
Stock. The analysis aims to assess the company’s worth on the basis its EV/EBITDA multiple .
ability to generate cashflows, future growth and risk associated with the
business. We have carefully considered management’s guidance for Assets Approach
performing this analysis.
Under this approach, the value of the business is derived basis difference
between the value of assets & liabilities. This approach is focuses on
Valuation Methodology determining the value of net assets from the perspective of equity valuation.
There are primarily 3 approaches in Valuation (viz., Cost Approach, Market The value of net assets can be determined as follows; Net assets = Total
Approach & income Approach).For any valuation, all the approaches may Assets - Total External Liabilities. The value of net assets is also known as
not be relevant & therefore will not give fair estimate of value. Hence, the Book Value of equity
approach most suitable for specific business/company must be applied in
the valuation exercise based on common practices. Income Approach
The 3 approaches generally adopted in valuation are as under: Under this approach, the value of the business is derived by considering the
1. Market Approach: Comparable Companies Method & Comparable cash flows, future growth & weighted average cost of capital which is
Transaction Method. signifies risk.
2. Income Approach: Discounted Cash Flow Method.
3. Asset Approach: Net Asset Value Method. There are 4 major steps in Income Approach:
16
DCF Valuation
Actual Explict Forecast Period
In INR Crores unless stated otherwise FY 2019A FY 2020A FY 2021A FY 2022A FY 2023A FY 2024F FY 2025F FY 2026F FY 2027F FY 2028F FY 2029F FY 2030F FY 2031F FY 2032F FY 2033F
EBITDA ₹ 1,448 ₹ 1,202 ₹ 1,655 ₹ 2,788 ₹ 3,610 ₹ 3,882 ₹ 4,639 ₹ 5,475 ₹ 6,378 ₹ 7,335 ₹ 7,552 ₹ 7,639 ₹ 7,566 ₹ 7,303 ₹ 6,816
Less: Deprecation & Amortisation (₹ 489) (₹ 529) (₹ 531) (₹ 617) (₹ 681) (₹ 687) (₹ 845) (₹ 992) (₹ 935) (₹ 1,029) (₹ 1,131) (₹ 1,235) (₹ 1,338) (₹ 1,439) (₹ 1,523)
EBIT ₹ 959 ₹ 673 ₹ 1,123 ₹ 2,171 ₹ 2,929 ₹ 3,196 ₹ 3,795 ₹ 4,483 ₹ 5,443 ₹ 6,306 ₹ 6,420 ₹ 6,404 ₹ 6,228 ₹ 5,864 ₹ 5,293
Less: Tax (₹ 240) (₹ 168) (₹ 281) (₹ 543) (₹ 732) (₹ 799) (₹ 949) (₹ 1,121) (₹ 1,361) (₹ 1,577) (₹ 1,605) (₹ 1,601) (₹ 1,557) (₹ 1,466) (₹ 1,323)
EBIT (1-T) ₹ 719 ₹ 505 ₹ 843 ₹ 1,628 ₹ 2,197 ₹ 2,397 ₹ 2,846 ₹ 3,362 ₹ 4,082 ₹ 4,730 ₹ 4,815 ₹ 4,803 ₹ 4,671 ₹ 4,398 ₹ 3,970
Add: Deprecation & Amortisation ₹ 489 ₹ 529 ₹ 531 ₹ 617 ₹ 681 ₹ 687 ₹ 845 ₹ 992 ₹ 935 ₹ 1,029 ₹ 1,131 ₹ 1,235 ₹ 1,338 ₹ 1,439 ₹ 1,523
Cash NOPAT ₹ 1,208 ₹ 1,034 ₹ 1,374 ₹ 2,245 ₹ 2,878 ₹ 3,084 ₹ 3,691 ₹ 4,354 ₹ 5,017 ₹ 5,758 ₹ 5,947 ₹ 6,038 ₹ 6,009 ₹ 5,837 ₹ 5,493
Less: Reinvestmets
Change in Working Capital ₹ 26 ₹ 106 (₹ 28) ₹ 53 (₹ 473) ₹ 965 (₹ 416) (₹ 290) (₹ 32) (₹ 818) (₹ 145) (₹ 180) (₹ 218) (₹ 261) (₹ 308)
Capex During the year (₹ 1,869) ₹ 70 ₹ 143 (₹ 667) (₹ 1,477) (₹ 2,400) (₹ 1,500) (₹ 2,100) (₹ 1,417) (₹ 1,558) (₹ 1,714) (₹ 1,729) (₹ 1,716) (₹ 1,675) (₹ 1,408)
Free Cash Flow to Firm (₹ 635) ₹ 1,210 ₹ 1,488 ₹ 1,632 ₹ 928 ₹ 1,648 ₹ 1,775 ₹ 1,963 ₹ 3,568 ₹ 3,382 ₹ 4,087 ₹ 4,130 ₹ 4,075 ₹ 3,900 ₹ 3,776
Discount period (year) Mid Year Yes 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50 6.50 7.50 8.50 9.50
Discount Rate (WACC) Convention? 9%
Discounting Factor 0.96 0.88 0.81 0.74 0.68 0.62 0.57 0.52 0.48 0.44
Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Firm ₹ 1,579 ₹ 1,559 ₹ 1,583 ₹ 2,639 ₹ 2,295 ₹ 2,544 ₹ 2,359 ₹ 2,135 ₹ 1,875 ₹ 1,665
Perpetuity Growth
₹ 6,816 1,95,638 crores
Terminal Year FCFF x (1+PGR) ₹ 3,984 Terminal Value 4.0% ₹ 46,792 ₹ 39,864 ₹ 34,491 ₹ 32,235 ₹ 30,208
₹ 44,268 ₹ 1,09,053
Terminal Value
Present Value of Terminal Value ₹ 48,093 5.5% ₹ 47,217 ₹ 40,204 ₹ 34,769 ₹ 32,487 ₹ 30,437
Present Value of Terminal Value ₹ 19,523 Present Value of FCFFs ₹ 20,233 6.0% ₹ 47,359 ₹ 40,318 ₹ 34,861 ₹ 32,571 ₹ 30,513
Intrinsic Value
Present Value of FCFF ₹ 20,233 Enterprise Value ₹ 68,326 INR 34,769 Crores 7.0% ₹ 47,643 ₹ 40,545 ₹ 35,047 ₹ 32,739 ₹ 30,666
Enterprise Value ₹ 39,756 7.5% ₹ 47,785 ₹ 40,659 ₹ 35,139 ₹ 32,822 ₹ 30,742
Implied Exit Multiple 10.02x WACC
Implied Exit Multiple 5.83x Implied EV/EBITDA 10.02x ### 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%9.5% 10.0%
Implied EV/ EBITDA 11.01x WACC
13x ₹ 63,881 ₹ 58,883 ₹ 54,322 ₹ 52,192 ₹ 50,155
Exit Multiple
Less: Total Debt 9%
(₹ 5,195) 14x ₹ 67,465 ₹ 62,164 ₹ 57,328 ₹ 55,070 ₹ 52,911
Less: Total Debt (₹ 5,195) Add: Cash ₹ 460
Add: Cash ₹ 460 15x ₹ 71,049 ₹ 65,445 ₹ 60,334 ₹ 57,948 ₹ 55,667
Less: Minority interest (₹ 148) Less: Minority interest (₹ 148) 16x ₹ 74,633 ₹ 68,726 ₹ 63,340 ₹ 60,826 ₹ 58,423
Equity Value ₹ 34,873 Equity Value ₹ 63,444 17x ₹ 78,217 ₹ 72,007 ₹ 66,346 ₹ 63,704 ₹ 61,179
Terminal Growth
Less: Option Value (₹ 104) Less: Option Value (₹ 104) 5.50% 18x ₹ 81,801 ₹ 75,288 ₹ 69,351 ₹ 66,582 ₹ 63,935
Equity Value for Shareholder ₹ 34,769 Equity Value for Shareholder ₹ 63,340 17
Relative Valuation
Company Name Ticker Enterprice Value EBITDA EV/EBITDA ROIC Revenue Growth Debt/EQUITY DEP/EBITDA EBITDA Margin Tax Rate
Coca - Cola Europacific Partners PLC NASDAQ: CCEP 43,219.0 3,301.0 13.1x 8.7% 10.4% 1.43x 19.8% 16.24% 23.8%
Celsius Holdings, Inc. NASDAQ: CELH 18,441.0 370.4 49.8x 70.5% 101.7% 0.01x 0.9% 26.20% 24.8%
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc NASDAQ: KDP 60,277.0 3,950.0 15.3x 6.7% 5.4% 0.61x 13.6% 26.48% 21.7%
Monster Beverages Corp. NASDAQ: MNST 50,308.8 2,230.0 22.6x 18.8% 13.1% 0.01x 3.5% 30.40% 22.0%
Varun Beverages Ltd. NSE: VBL ₹ 82,345.13 ₹ 3,609.00 22.8x 28.82% 16% 0.78x 18.8% 22.50% 23%
Relative Va lua tion a s p e r Regressio n A p p r o a c h
Relative Pricing - Comparable
E V / E B I T D A M u l t i pl e 22.8x
A total of 15 Companies were screened as using FINVIZ stock screener. The shortlisting Criteria
EBITDA ₹ 3,609.0
are as below:
Enterprice Value ₹ 82,345.1
• Industry Classification: Non Alcoholic - Beverages
Less: Total De bt (₹ 5 , 1 9 4 . 5 )
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
Add: C a sh ₹ 459.9
• Market Cap: Large ($10Bln to $200Bln)
L e s s : M i n o r i t y i nt e r e st (₹ 1 4 8 . 2 )
Multiple variables were assessed via corelation matrix and followings were selected due to
Equity Value ₹ 77,462.3
higher relatively higher corelation with EV/EBITDA Ratio.
Less: Option Value (₹ 1 0 4 . 0 )
• Revenue Growth Rate
Equity Value for Shareholder ₹ 77,358.3
• Return on Invested Capital
SUMMARY OUTPUT • Debt/ Equity Ratio
R e g r e s s i o n Statistics The Regression Equation is provided below:
Multiple R 1
R Square 1 EV/EBITDA = 15.04+31.64*(Return on Invested Capital)+12.29*(Revenue Growth)-4.18*(Debt/Equity)
Adjusted R Square 65535
Standard Error 0
Observations 4
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 5 857.5180277 171.5 # N UM ! #NUM!
Residual 0 0 65535
Total 5 857.5180277
Coefficients S tand ard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 15.03989004 0 65535 #N UM! #VALUE! #VALUE! 15.03989004 15.03989004
ROIC 31.63553408 0 65535 #N UM! 31.63553408 31.63553408 31.63553408 31.63553408
Revenue Growth 12.28667746 0 65535 #N UM! 12.28667746 12.28667746 12.28667746 12.28667746
Debt/EQUITY -4.183987021 0 65535 #N UM! -4.183987021 -4.183987021 -4.183987021 -4.183987021
18
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
WACC Inputs Risk free Rate
Country India D e b t t o C apit al (Ge aring ) 4 2 .3 % We have considered 4.73% as the risk free rate in estimation of
Local Currency 10 yr Govt Bond yield 7.12% Marginal Tax Rate 2 5 .0 % cost of equity of 8.81%. The risk free rate of India is calculated by
India's Moodys Soverign Rating Baa3 C o m p a n y C re dit R a t i n g A vailab le ? Yes
Credit Default Spread as per DR Damodaran 2.39% C o m p a n y is L a r g e S ize o r S m a l l S ize L considering local currency 10 years government bond yield adjusted
Implied US Equity Risk Premium 4.15% P r o v i d e C red it R a t i n g Aa2/AA for default spread of India.
Assets Beta 0.40 I nt e rest C o v e r a g e Ra t io 1 0 . 9x
Assets Beta Variation (+/-) 0.05 IC R Based Corporate Default S pread 0 .6% Assets Beta
DEbt to Equity Ratio 74.9% S m a l l S ize P r e m i u m 0 .0% We have estimated as assets beta range of 0.35 to 0.45, with a mid
point of 0.40 based on observed median of 5 year monthly assets
Particular Low Mid High beta of benchmark listed companies adjusted for blume effect.
19
Blume - Beta Analysis 5 Year - Monthly
No of Monthly Asstes 5 Years Equity 5 years Avg Narrow
Comparable Company Ticker Market Cap Considered?
observation Beta Avg. D/E Beta D/(D+E) Set
PepsiCo, Inc NasdaqGS: PEP 60 232035 0.22 240% 0.63 66% Y True
The Coco Cola Company NYSE: KO 60 245311 0.30 164% 0.66 58% Y True
Fomento Economic Mexicano NYSE: FMX 60 38947 0.27 84% 0.44 38% N FALSE
Coco Cola Europecific ENXTAM: CCE 60 28049 0.30 162% 0.67 52% Y True
Coco Cola FEMSA NYSE: KOF 60 17132 0.40 84% 0.65 35% Y True
Coco Cola HBC LSE: CCH 60 9642 0.42 101% 0.73 52% Y True
Suntory Beverages & Food Limited TSE: 2587 60 9443 0.37 12% 0.40 8% N FALSE
Monster Beverages NASDAQ: MNST 60 57806 0.69 1% 0.70 0% Y True
Coco Cola Bottler Japan TSE:2579 60 2394 - 38% 0.33 27% N FALSE
Coco Cola Icececk IBSE: CCOLA 60 3751 0.27 91% 0.45 44% N FALSE
Median - Broad Set 0.30 88% 0.64 41%
Average - Broad Set 0.36 98% 0.56 38%
Median - Considered 0.35 132% 0.67 52%
Average - Considered 0.39 125% 0.67 44%
We are taking Asset beta as 0.35x which is the median Beta of the considered set, over the period the company's Beta will lien towards Market beta i.e.,1
for calculation of Blume effect 0.33 and 0.67 weightage has been assigned to market beta and beta, respectively.
29
DuPont Analysis - Return on Equity & Return on Assets DuPont Analysis Summary
Return on Equity (ROE)
Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 From March 2016 to March 2023,
Net Profit ₹ 46 ₹ 214 ₹ 300 ₹ 472 ₹ 357 ₹ 746 ₹ 1,550 ₹ 2,102 the company's financial
Average Shareholder Equity ₹ 847 ₹ 1,724 ₹ 1,887 ₹ 2,683 ₹ 3,474 ₹ 3,893 ₹ 4,706 ₹ 6,150 performance improved
Return on Equity (ROE) 5.4% 12.4% 15.9% 17.6% 10.3% 19.2% 32.9% 34.2% significantly, as shown by the
DuPont Analysis. The Return on
ROE - DuPont Equation Equity (ROE) rose from 5.4% to
Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 34.2%.
Net Profit ₹ 46 ₹ 214 ₹ 300 ₹ 472 ₹ 357 ₹ 746 ₹ 1,550 ₹ 2,102
Revenue ₹ 3,861 ₹ 4,004 ₹ 5,105 ₹ 7,130 ₹ 6,450 ₹ 8,823 ₹ 13,173 ₹ 16,043 Key Metrics:
Net Profit Margin (A) 1.2% 5.3% 5.9% 6.6% 5.5% 8.5% 11.8% 13.1% 1. Net Profit Margin: Increased
Revenue ₹ 3,861 ₹ 4,004 ₹ 5,105 ₹ 7,130 ₹ 6,450 ₹ 8,823 ₹ 13,173 ₹ 16,043 from 1.2% to 13.1%, indicating
Average Total Assets ₹ 2,416 ₹ 5,057 ₹ 5,658 ₹ 7,210 ₹ 8,423 ₹ 8,998 ₹ 10,578 ₹ 13,403 better profitability.
Assets Turnover Ratio (B) 1.6X 0.8X 0.9X 1.0X 0.8X 1.0X 1.2X 1.2X 2. Asset Turnover Ratio: Ranged
from 1.6x to 1.2x, showing
Average Total Assets ₹ 2,416 ₹ 5,057 ₹ 5,658 ₹ 7,210 ₹ 8,423 ₹ 8,998 ₹ 10,578 ₹ 13,403
changes in asset efficiency.
Average Shareholder Equity ₹ 847 ₹ 1,724 ₹ 1,887 ₹ 2,683 ₹ 3,474 ₹ 3,893 ₹ 4,706 ₹ 6,150
3. Equity Multiplier: Dropped
Equity Multiplier (C) 2.9X 2.9X 3.0X 2.7X 2.4X 2.3X 2.2X 2.2X
from 2.9x to 2.2x, indicating
Return on Equity (ROE) (A*B*C) 5.4% 12.4% 15.9% 17.6% 10.3% 19.2% 32.9% 34.2% less reliance on debt.
Return on Asstes (ROA) Return on Assets (ROA) increased
Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 from 1.9% to 15.7%, showing
Net Profit ₹ 46 ₹ 214 ₹ 300 ₹ 472 ₹ 357 ₹ 746 ₹ 1,550 ₹ 2,102 better asset profitability. Overall,
Average Total Assets ₹ 2,416 ₹ 5,057 ₹ 5,658 ₹ 7,210 ₹ 8,423 ₹ 8,998 ₹ 10,578 ₹ 13,403 the company became more
Return on Assets 1.9% 4.2% 5.3% 6.5% 4.2% 8.3% 14.7% 15.7% profitable, used assets more
ROA - DuPont Equation efficiently, and reduced debt over
Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 these years.
Net Profit ₹ 46 ₹ 214 ₹ 300 ₹ 472 ₹ 357 ₹ 746 ₹ 1,550 ₹ 2,102
Revenue ₹ 3,861 ₹ 4,004 ₹ 5,105 ₹ 7,130 ₹ 6,450 ₹ 8,823 ₹ 13,173 ₹ 16,043
Net Profit Margin (A) 1.2% 5.3% 5.9% 6.6% 5.5% 8.5% 11.8% 13.1%
Revenue ₹ 3,861 ₹ 4,004 ₹ 5,105 ₹ 7,130 ₹ 6,450 ₹ 8,823 ₹ 13,173 ₹ 16,043
Average Total Assets ₹ 2,416 ₹ 5,057 ₹ 5,658 ₹ 7,210 ₹ 8,423 ₹ 8,998 ₹ 10,578 ₹ 13,403
Assets Turnover Ratio (B) 1.6X 0.8X 0.9X 1.0X 0.8X 1.0X 1.2X 1.2X
Return on Assets (ROA) (A*B) 1.9% 4.2% 5.3% 6.5% 4.2% 8.3% 14.7% 15.7% 21
Valuation Summary
Equity Value Available Discount / Discount / Over/Under
Valuation Method Enterprice Value Value Per Share Market Price
for Shareholder Premium Premium % Valued ?
Discoounted Cash Flow - Perpetuity Growth ₹ 39,755.8 ₹ 34,769.0 ₹ 535.2 ₹ 1,429.0 ₹ 893.8 62.5% Over - Valued
Discoounted Cash Flow - Exit Multiple ₹ 68,326.5 ₹ 63,339.7 ₹ 975.0 ₹ 1,429.0 ₹ 454.0 31.8% Over - Valued
Relative Valuation - EV/EBITDA ₹ 82,345.1 ₹ 77,358.3 ₹ 1,190.8 ₹ 1,429.0 ₹ 238.2 16.7% Over - Valued
Analysis
According to DCF Valuation the share is trading at a premium of INR 893.8 and INR 454.0 for perpetuity growth method and Exit multiple, respectively. However,
according to relative valuation the share is trading at a premium of INR 238.2 according to EV/EBITDA method, EV/EBITDA Multiple derived through regression approach
as per by Professor Aswath Damodaran.
Key financial performance indicators include ROIC, revenue growth, debt-to-equity ratio, and EBITDA margins . These metrics impact investment decisions by assessing the sustainability and efficiency of financial operations, demonstrating potential profitability and risk levels, and guiding strategic investment and operational improvements .
The shift towards health consciousness impacts product offerings by increasing demand for juices, bottled water, and low-calorie soft drinks . Companies are adapting by introducing natural ingredients, low-calorie options, and leveraging innovative packaging to meet consumer preferences, thus expanding market share and staying competitive amidst evolving demands .
The primary challenges for the Indian CSDs market include market saturation, increasing health awareness leading to reduced sugary drink consumption, and high taxation on sugary beverages . Companies are addressing these challenges by innovating with natural calorie sweeteners like stevia and employing advanced packaging technologies such as laser labeling to appeal to health-conscious consumers .
By 2030, the Indian non-alcoholic beverages market is expected to reach ₹1.47 trillion with a projected CAGR of 8.85% from 2022 to 2027. Key drivers include rising health awareness, urbanization, and increasing disposable incomes among young consumers . This growth trajectory is supported by shifts towards healthier beverage choices and innovative packaging solutions .
Demographic shifts, such as a young population with rising disposable incomes and urban migration, are driving demand for diverse beverage options, including ready-to-drink beverages . These shifts present growth opportunities, especially for innovative and organized players, as 80% of the sector remains informal .
The company's historical and projected Capex commitments, such as ₹2,400 crores in 2024, showcase a strategic effort to enhance production capacity and market reach . This proactive approach positions the company for substantial growth, driven by increased production capabilities, new geographic expansions, and innovative product offerings aligned with consumer preferences for healthier options .
The strategic focus for future Capex involves funding greenfield projects to increase CSD production, expanding into the dairy and juice segments, and enhancing digital retail channels . Additionally, investments aim at upgrading existing facilities and supporting ongoing projects to tap into new market opportunities and meet growing demand .
India's economic resilience is attributed to robust domestic demand, substantial public infrastructure investment, and a strengthening financial sector . These factors have helped buffer the economy against global challenges such as inflation and rising interest rates.
Urbanization plays a crucial role in growing the non-alcoholic beverage sector by increasing demand for convenient, ready-to-drink beverages among urban populations with changing lifestyles . Long-term implications include intensified competition, the need for efficient distribution networks, and a continued focus on product innovation to cater to urban consumer preferences .
VBL's acquisition of BevCo aligns with its expansion goals by leveraging BevCo's franchise and distribution rights in several African countries. This move is strategically positioned to tap into Africa's favorable demographics and high demand for soft drinks, thereby gaining a significant market foothold and fostering sustained growth .