PROJMNGT 7047

Systems Design for Projects

Module 7

Evolutionary Learning Laboratories (ELLabs)

Dr. Nam Nguyen
Visiting Fellow, Business School, University of Adelaide
Director, R & D, International Centre for Complex Project Management (ICCPM) 1
Context - our world is complex
• By now we know that the issues we are facing in our world are complex. They
cannot be solved in isolation, because these issues are all interconnected
Dynamically Changing

Globalisation of economies

Fragmentation
Uncertainty

Business & Organisational systems

Climate change
Poverty
Health
Quality of life
Sustaining natural resources

Food safety and security

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What makes our problems Complex?

› Multidimensional,
› Ambiguous,
› Non-linear
› Interdependent
› Multiple stakeholders
› Diverse agendas, objectives and
backgrounds
› No quick fixes

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• Typical way of thinking – Linear thinking is easier,
because we don’t have to think of the consequences of
an action on the system as a whole.
Improved
Quality of
Life

More SSS
More Jobs
More Tourists

Enhance = Linear Thinking!

Tourism

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Systems thinking

› Cuts through complexity

› Analyses a problem based on its
various parts and their
interconnectedness
› Synthesises perspectives from
multiple stakeholders to build a
comprehensive big picture

• There are many factors that have

to be taken into account in any
decision making. These factors
are also all interconnected.
Systems thinking is the only way
to see the bigger picture and to
help avoid going for quick fixes
or treating the symptoms –
which never works.
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 +
+ Investment
Infrastructure & B2
facility Number of
+ tourists
+ Waste
+
+ R1 B1
+ Land required + Resident
Employment for tourism Pollution population
- opportunity
R3
Wealth of B6
local People + - - B3 + +
Employment Conservation and + Social
+
- - opportunity for local agricultural land Attractiveness of
issues
Total
people Cat Ba Island population
R2 + + +
Natural + +
Illegal forest beauty
- exploitation
R4 + - B4
+
Living Access to + Temporary
Fresh water
cost education consumption
- - Student immigration
- population
R5 + B5
-
Agricultural Availability of -
Production underground water

6
 • This and the next figure explain why one cannot think linearly
anymore when you deal with a complex system. The same linear
thinking line appears in this figure, namely more tourists will lead
to people having better quality of lives. However, looking at all the
variables that actually play a role in one issue (thinking in systems)
makes it very clear that enhancing tourism will affect the system as
a whole - more tourists will bring more waste, there will be higher
demands on fresh water, various feedback loops exist, etc. – a much
more complex situation.
• The systems model shows that more tourists will affect various
components of the system, namely, pollution, agriculture,
requirement for land, temporary migration issues, social issues and
even education – a much more complex situation. No wonder
Governments are struggling to cope with complex problems.
Solving them cannot be done through traditional linear thinking.
That is when they start to use quick fixes (addressing the
symptoms).

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 +
+ Investment
Infrastructure & B2
facility Number of
+ tourists
+ Waste
+
+ R1 B1
+ Land required + Resident
Employment for tourism Pollution population
- opportunity
R3
Wealth of B6
local People + - - B3 + +
Employment Conservation and + Social
+
- - opportunity for local agricultural land Attractiveness of
issues
Total
people Cat Ba Island population
R2 + + +
Natural + +
Illegal forest beauty
- exploitation
R4 + - B4
+
Living Access to + Temporary
Fresh water
cost education consumption
- - Student immigration
- population
R5 + B5
-
Agricultural Availability of -
Production underground water

8
 Here it shows how systems thinking helps you to identify how a single
problem can cut across four main sectors (in this case).

Tourism Economic Sector

+
+ Investment
Infrastructure & B2
facility Number of
+ tourists
+ Waste
+
+ R1 B1
+ Land required + Resident
Employment for tourism Pollution population
- opportunity
R3
Wealth of B6
local People + - - B3 + +
Employment Conservation and + Social
+
- - opportunity for local agricultural land Attractiveness of
issues
Total
people Cat Ba Island population
R2 +
Environmental Sector + +
Natural + +
Illegal forest beauty
- exploitation
R4 + - B4 Population Sector
+
Living Access to + Temporary
Fresh water
cost education consumption
- - Student immigration
- population
R5 + B5
-
Agricultural Availability of -
Production Natural Resources Sector
underground water

9
 Exercises
1. Make a list of the complex issues in your workplace or situation or
life (select one topic)
[Link] one of these and list:
› The issues from your perspective
› Possible solutions to these issues
› Drivers and barriers to your solutions
[Link] a Causal Loop Model that describes how the different
elements/variables are related to each other (Module 3) and:
› Identify reinforcing and balancing loops (Module 3)
› Look for potential archetypes (Module 4)
› Identify potential leverage points in the model (Module 5)
[Link] a short description of your model and your interpretation
of the dynamics of the system

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Evolutionary Learning Labs (ELLabs)

› Seven step systemic framework

that enables people from diverse
disciplines and areas of interest
to address complex multi-
dimensional problems of any
nature
› Non linear problem solving to cut
through complexity
› A unique synergy of academic
rigour and real world application
of systems thinking
› A model that impacted problem
solving in global contexts
› Demonstrated success in
different scenarios.

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Evolutionary Learning Labs

› The Evolutionary Learning

Laboratory is an excellent
mechanism or methodology to help
developing a “new way of thinking”.
› The assumptions lie in the name –
Evolutionary means we
acknowledge that a complex
problem cannot be solved instantly,
but solutions will evolve over time
as we develop a better
understanding of the system we are
dealing with; Learning means we
learn over time how to deal with
complex problems; and
Laboratory implies we are
experimenting with possible
solutions - not any solutions, but
systemically determined solutions.
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How Evolutionary Learning Labs work

This slide illustrates that an essential

and fundamental part of solving a
complex problem is “PEOPLE”. It is the
experiential knowledge of the people
that we need to acknowledge and use
for developing systemic solutions.

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 Traditional Thinking

Reflect

Identify issues & gather mental

1 models; develop a shared
Implement understanding

Solutions
Management
Plan

• Although it doesn’t look like linear thinking (being an oval circle!), this
represents traditional thinking. People sit around a table, think linearly,
come up with potential solutions (quick fixes/treating symptoms),
implement them and on reflection often find that several more problems
were created because the solution didn’t take the system as a whole and
unintended consequences into consideration. The quick fixes are mostly
done on the basis of “trial and error” – let’s try X and if it doesn’t work we
will adapt the management strategy. This could be a costly exercise.
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Evolutionary Learning Laboratory
for managing complex issues and projects
In the ELLab process one
also starts with gathering Reflect
the mental models 7
(different perspectives Identify issues & gather mental
Environmental
from stakeholders 1 models; develop a shared
Implement Stakeholders’ understanding
providing ideas from 6
Mental Models
different angles, cultures,
objectives, values – see

Economic
Systems

Social
Quick-fix Capacity
pp.22 - 26). However, after Structure 2
Building
Solutions
this step the ELLab follows
a systems approach in Patterns &
Systemic 5 Relationships
order to identify Systems
Interventions & 3
systemically what Model
Management Plan Cultural Values
interventions have the
greatest potential to be 4
successful – as well as Identify Leverage
determining systemically
what changes should be
made if the strategy is not
working (steps 2 to 5: pp.
17 - 20).
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Example - ELLab Application in
Governance
In this example the Haiphong City Government in Vietnam realized, that they govern the city
(province) through several Departments, each operating in silos. Each develop their own strategic
plan, with no or minimal cross-departmental communication and collaboration. The realisation that
one “discipline” or sector cannot solve their own problems, due to the fact that they need
knowledge from each other (interconnectedness of different components of the bigger system) to
not only save costs, but also to be more effective in their governance.

Agric. & Rural Natural Res & Culture, Planning & Training &
Development Environment Sport & Tourism Investment Education

Government Departments of Hải Phòng City, Vietnam

16
 Collaboration Sharing Planning

Agric. & Rural Natural Res & Culture, Planning & Training &
Development Environment Sport & Tourism Investment Education

Government Departments of Hải Phòng City, Vietnam

17
 Collaboration Sharing Planning

The thick walls between the different Departments are disappearing through more cross-departmental
collaboration, sharing of knowledge and integrated planning.

Agric. & Rural Natural Res & Culture, Planning & Training &
Development Environment Sport & Tourism Investment Education

Government Departments of Hải Phòng Province, Vietnam

18
 Collaboration Sharing Planning

Integrated Systemic Master

Plan for Governance of Hải Phòng City

Through doing this, the Hải Phòng Government is developing an Integrated Systemic Master Plan
for the governance of Hải Phòng. Departments still exist, because that provides order in the
Government, but they fully collaborate with each other across the boundaries.

Agric. & Rural Natural Res & Culture, Planning & Training &
Development Environment Sport & Tourism Investment Education

Government Departments of Hải Phòng City, Vietnam

19
After the first step of the ELLab follows
step2 – Capacity Building. This an
important step during which the people
involved are learning how to use the 7 Identify issues & gather
systems tools that are going to be used Environmental
mental models; develop
for the next steps. Knowing what you do 1 a shared understanding
Stakeholders’ between departments
and why, help significantly for the 6
Mental Models
participants to take ownership of the

Economic
ELLab process. Systems

Social
2 Build Capacity
Structure
Interesting is the fact that all knowledge
provided by different stakeholders is Patterns &
normally correct and true. That 5 Relationships
Integrate mental
becomes apparent when the different 3
models into a
Cultural Values
pieces of knowledge are integrated into systems
a systems structure (Step 3). The more 4 structure/ model
mental models from more stakeholders
ensure a more realistic model, of which
the stakeholders take ownership (they
see where their particular piece of
knowledge fits into the bigger picture
(read pp. 30 – 34)
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The next step (4) is to identify the
potential leverage points in the
system. This is an example of a 7 Identify issues & gather
systems model that was mental models; develop
Environmental
1 a shared understanding
constructed with the mental models Stakeholders’ between departments
of representatives from different 6
Mental Models
Government Departments.

Economic
Systems

Social
Exploring the model and looking for 2 Build Capacity
Structure
potential leverage points (Step 4)
revealed five important leverages Patterns &
in the system. 5 Relationships Integrate mental
3
models into a systems
Cultural Values
structure/ model
4

21
Exploring the model and looking for potential leverage points (Step 4) revealed five
important leverages in the system.
Conservative
Lack of Funding Geo Locations & thinking S Population
O Nat. Conditions
O Pressure
SD Awareness

S
S
O Intnl. Assist.
S
Infrastructure S
O O
Labour force
S O Environment
S
S S S
Weakness in R&D Social Issues
Economic Development
O
S S O
Revenue History & Trad. Cultures
S
S S
S Policies &
Livelihood of People
regulations
Cross-Depart. Coordination
S
O S O O
O S S
Skilled HR

Lack of transparency
S S
S
Bureaucratic Admin Sustainable Development

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The next step (5) of the ELLab process is to
determine how the identified leverage points
could be achieved. There are many systems
tools that this can be done with (e.g. system
dynamic modelling, Sensitivity Model) but
our research has shown that Bayesian
Belief Network modelling (BBN) is one of
the easiest to use for this purpose (see p.
46 for why). By now you would have 7
worked through Module 6 and already know Identify issues & gather
mental models; develop
how to construct BBNs. Chapter 6 also Environmental
1 a shared understanding
discusses in detail how to construct BBNs Stakeholders’ between departments
and how they can be used to identify the 6
Mental Models
factors that play the biggest role in

Economic
achieving the goal (that is, identifying the Systems

Social
systemic interventions). Structure 2 Build Capacity

Identifying long-term systemic interventions Patterns &

5 Relationships Integrate mental
3
models into a systems
Cultural Values
structure/ model
4

Bayesian belief network modeling to identify systemic interventions

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 On the left is a BBN populated with current information, indicating that the probability for
Sustainable Economic Development at this point in time to be high, is about 47%. Addressing the
shaded nodes (factors) as shown in the figure on the right, could potentially increase the
probability to 85%. These are the systemic interventions required to be carried out by the
Government to improve economic development.

Current situation Future scenario

› Participatory Systems Analysis

› Easy to construct

› Link qualitative and quantitative

› Quantify uncertainties

› Easily updateable

› Identify Systemic Interventions

› Useful for developing

47%
strategic and operational plans 85%

BBN Modeling Identified systemic intervention increasing

Systemic Interventions
the probability for high Sustainable Economic Development
(SED)

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Developing a BBN for each leverage
point result in a number of proposed Co-learning & new levels
systemic interventions that cut across the of performance
different Departments, but if combined,
form an Integrated Systemic Reflection
Governance Plan for Haiphong. 7 Identify issues & gather
mental models; develop
Environmental
1 a shared understanding
Stakeholders’ between departments
Implementation 6
Mental Models

Economic
Integrated long-term systemic Governance Systems

Social
cross-sectoral Structure 2 Build Capacity
collaboration
Patterns &
Environmental Management

5 Relationships Integrate mental

3
Economic development

models into a
Cultural Values
Livelihood of People

systems structure/
model
4

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 Co-learning & new levels
of performance

Reflection
7 Identify issues & gather
mental models; develop
Environmental
1 a shared understanding
Stakeholders’ between departments
Implementation 6
Mental Models

Economic
Integrated long-term systemic Governance Systems

Social
Structure 2 Build Capacity
cross-sectoral
collaboration
Patterns & developing an action plan
One of the important steps after identifying the systemic interventions,
Environmental Management

Relationships
5 is Reflection Integrate mental
and Implementing (Step 6) the systemic strategies, (Step 7). During
3 this step the
Economic development

stakeholders reflect on how well the strategies are workingCultural

and whether models into a systems
the goal is being achieved.
Values
Livelihood of People

Discussions lead to a high degree of co-learning through rethinking the reasons why structure/ model
a particular
systemic intervention does not produce the expected result(s). This4 is followed by revisiting the
models and looking for wrong assumptions (e.g. in causal loops) and factors that may have been
left out in constructing the Bayesian Belief Network Model (s). Changes are made, a new CPT
table(s) is created and changes to the strategies are made. This leads to better performance and
co-learning at the local level. Note in this type of adaptive management the changes are
systemically determined and not through “trial and error”.

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Local ELLabs Extending Wider
Local ELLab Evolutionary Learning Global Evolutionary
Laboratories Learning Laboratory

New Levels of Learning and › Sustainable Development of New Levels of Learning and
Performance at LOCAL Level UNESCO Cat Ba Biosphere, Performance at GLOBAL,
Vietnam REGIONAL, CITY Level
› Enhancing Systems Education
› Integrated Systemic GELL
Governance, Haiphong
Province, Vietnam
› Labour Saving Innovations in
Sub-Saharan Africa and South
East Asia
› Best Practice for South
Australian Health Department
› Building Reputation of Systems Sharing Reflections
Design & Management
Graduate School, Keio Creating a collaborative
University, Japan learning environment
› Enhancing the Coffee Supply
Chain Management in Vietnam

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 Exercises
1. Explore the different components/steps/processes of
the ELLab and evaluate the usefulness of this
approach for your own company, organisation,
government department or community to serve as a
complexity management tool.
2. List the drivers in your system that will make this work.
3. List the barriers that may cause resistance to the use
of the ELLab approach in your situation.
4. Provide potential actions or strategies that may help to
overcome the barriers.

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 Thank you and enjoy further learning!

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