Intermediate Term Top Down Analysis

Weekly to Daily

This Is My Personal Approach

Focus Of This Presentation:
Determine the impact of the Weekly Perspective on an asset or market.
Identify the directional bias for the HTF Weekly chart.
Classify the PD Arrays accurately to assist in Key Levels.
Complete an Institutional Analysis on a Weekly basis.

The first thing I get started with when a new week starts is Relative Strength, now
the reason why I get started with Relative Strength is because I may not have a
clear from the Monthly and to avoid any needless frustration, if the Monthly Chart
does not really speak well to me then I will just go through the process of doing a
Relative Strength Analysis on the assets and on the specific currencies or Stocks
or the Futures markets I am looking to trade. After I do my Relative Strength
Analysis, I go into the Commitment of Traders and what I would do is go through all
of the currencies and commodities and I would look for the extremes in the readings
of the commercials. Once I have done my Relative Strength Analysis, hopefully the
trades from the Monthly perspective like the Australian Dollar idea shown in the
previous teaching makes the cut for the Relative Strength Analysis. Then I look to
look at the Commitment of Traders, what are the commercials doing? After that I do
a Market Sentiment Analysis. Once I have arrived at a Market Sentiment opinion.
Once we have arrived with our watchlists and what markets are fueled with
commercial hedging and then we blend Market Sentiment ideas, what are everyone else
in the Retail Word are thinking? Ideally you want to be diametrically opposed to
that in alignment with what Smart Money is doing. Then I break down the market in
the Weekly in terms of its Market Profile. Is it trending? Is it in a
consolidation? Those types of things. Then I do Intermarket Analysis, I would be
looking for positively and negatively charged markets on the Weekly basis. Then I
look for Market Structure, and at this point I want to start incorporating
Institutional Orderflow. With down close candles supporting price, and up-close
candles being easily broken through for Bullish Market Structure and the opposite
is seen for Bearish Market Structure. Then I break down the PD Array Matrix, then
after that by having the Weekly PD Array Matrix defined both Premium and Discount
Arrays then I can start calibrating my key price levels for support or resistance
or buy and sell areas. Then as a result, I have defined in such a way where I can
take this information and transpose it to the Daily Chart.

Relative Strength Analysis

If the Monthly Analysis is not as helpful as I hope - I begin my Weekly Analysis
with Relative Strength Analysis across all asset classes.
For Commodities, Currencies and Stocks - I determine what markets lead in strength
by failing to make lower lows and lead in weakness by failing to make higher highs.
I look for Stocks in the top 30 Industry groups for strong stocks - ranked by IBD.
I look for longs in Commodities that lead their respective Futures Group with
higher lows relative to the others.
I look for longs in the currencies that fail to make lower lows relative to the
other currencies. (I want to know what the leaders and laggards are in other words,
what the strongest is and the weakest when I am doing my Relative Strength
Analysis).

What Are The Commercial Hedgers Doing?

I look for the Commercials to be at a 12 month or 6 month extreme in Net Holdings.
(In other words, divide the 0 line and make a new one in terms of the 6 month to 12
month extremes to get a better view in terms of what their hedging program is. You
look at the 6 and or 12 month extreme. You want to be trading in the middle of
those extremes where the trends because when it goes above a 6 month extreme high
or 12 month extreme high that could be a potential reversal in terms of their
hedging program so therefore look for reversal conditions).
I also sort markets that are at 2 and 4 year extremes.
Using my proprietary COT Hedging Program concept - I look for signs the Commercials
are buying or selling a market.
I like to sort Commodities that have extremely large Net Holdings compared to the
Future Group they are in.

Market Sentiment Reading

Using headlines from Financial publications like,
Investors Business Daily, Barron's, WSJ, Bloomberg... I like to fade the "Big
Story" (I like to see storylines to start building a consensus or sentiment idea
about, like doom and gloom, or everything is great, this is the best bull market
ever seen, it is on fire. I like to use headlines or stories that have real big
descriptive adjectives, something that gets things emotionally charged, the more
emotionally charged or descriptive they are and the more they occur, generally that
builds in a Sentiment idea.
I haunt the Forums for "Retail Thinking" to further build my Market Sentiment
opinion.
As a Technical Market Sentiment Reading I use a Williams %r indicator on the Weekly
chart in periods of 20, 14, 10. I look for which more accurately overlaps with
previous important highs and lows. Nothing is perfect. Then I look at the Williams
%r indicator for Sentiment building. When all of these three things come together
that builds in my Sentiment idea.

What Profile Is The Market In?

Is the market under study - Consolidating?
If Yes - Expansions are likely to show evidence prior to breakout. If No - Trend
might be reaching an extreme -- Retracement likely.
Is the market under study - Trending?
If Yes - Look for continuation trades - avoid the Top & Bottom picks. If No - Look
for signs to support a direction breakout - Intermarket.
Is the market under study - Retracing?
If Yes - Look for signs of continuation trades - post retracement. If No -
Determine if Consolidation or Trending - use above ideas.

Confirmation Seen In Other Markets?

If I have a Bullish Market Structure determined in my market of interest:
I look for Intermarket Analysis to support this idea in positively correlated
markets and opposed to it in negatively correlated markets. Example- Bullish pound
= Weak US Dollar Market Technically
If I have a Bearish Market Structure determined in my market of interest:
I look for Intermarket Analysis to support this idea in positively correlated
markets and opposed to it in negatively correlated markets. Example-Bearish US
Dollar = Strong Eurodollar Technically.

I Define The Current Market Structure: Current Market Structure I classify recent
Highs and Lows.
Like on the Monthly - I compare the relationship to the Highs to recent Highs to
determine if a Long - Intermediate - Short Term High is in control of Price
presently.
Like on the Monthly - I compare the relationship to the Lows to recent Lows to
determine if a Long - Intermediate - Short Term Low is in control of Price
presently.
USDX SMT and Correlated Pairs SMT on a Weekly Chart.
Institutional Orderflow and Sponsorship? If Bullish - Are Bullish Orderblocks
supporting higher prices, breaking old highs and supporting all down close candles
and are Premium PD Arrays are being easily broken through and traded through with
very little resistance?
If Bearish - Are Bearish Orderblocks resisting higher prices, breaking old lows and
providing resistance for all up-close candles, and are Discount PD Arrays being
easily broken through and traded through with very little resistance?
Trades selected in the direction of the current Market structure and Monthly
directional bias - are going to be favored in my analysis.

Locate The Institutional Focus Points

Once I arrive at a portion of Price Action I wish to analyze - I breakdown the
selected Price Range into Premium and Discount.
Not every Price Range will have every possible Premium and or Discount Arrays. I
just note the ones obvious in the Price range. Both the Premium and Discount
Arrays.
I will look to build potential trade ideas based on the PD Arrays and referring to
all the previous analysis points thus mentioned in this Weekly to Daily
presentation.

Note The Key Price Levels:

Once I determine the portion of Market Structure I want to use for my trade ideas:
Like on the Monthly - I round each PD Array to the nearest .10 level or ._5 level
The Premium Arrays above Market Price are rounded down to the nearest adjusted
number. [Calibration]
The Discount Arrays below Market Price are rounded up to the nearest adjusted
number. [Calibration]

End With The Weekly Bias:

After referring to:
Relative Strength Leaders & Laggards
Commitment Of Traders
Determine Market Sentiment
Analyze the current Market Profile
Confirmed my analysis with Market Correlation
Selected a portion of Market Structure to frame a trade in Defined the PD Arrays to
arrive at Key Price Levels
I will have arrived at a Directional Based Analysis on the Weekly Timeframe - which
gets transposed to the Daily.

We do not want to see price close through this Bullish Orderblock's meanthreshold,
or else the Orderblock is invalidated and therefore lower prices could be expected.

All these news events they are there to build in sentiment, all these media
companies, I would not be surprised if they are in cahoots to make this whole thing
unfold just like that, it is conditional programming. When an idea is created, it
gets shared upon other people, and since social media is vast, these opinions get
shared like a virus and it builds in a huge market sentiment. We can now apply a
sentiment reading with the oscillator Williams Percent R and we will start with the
20. Compare previous significant highs and lows in terms of all 20, 14 and 10 and
find the best one which is the most accurate.

You can apply some paint using the ICT COT Data concept utilizing the 6 or 12 month
extreme. Making it look more appealing, you do not need to apply paint, but it
makes it look more appealing, it is optional whether if you want to apply paint or
not.

Over here, everyone was saying it was Bearish, headlines and the William's Percent
R suggests extreme Bearish Sentiment, however technically it is Bullish.
Even though we are in a long-term consolidation on the Monthly, on the Weekly it
changes to now we are in a retracement, and it is expecting an expansion swing or
breakout from that consolidation. So, this is an impulse swing, retracement,
expansion swing. The expansion swing tends to go a little bit more than the impulse
swing. That is why we have our Fibonacci usually overlapped with this to get our
extensions for targets.