Admin, 6 2015-I2-20
Admin, 6 2015-I2-20
3 (1): 59 - 69
International Journal of Multidisciplinary
Studies (IJMS)
ABSTRACT
There has been an increasing trend in investments in renewable energy sources in the recent years. This
study assesses the economic and financial feasibility of Jatropha production in Sri Lanka under the
prevailing policy regime. The nominal protection coefficient and effective protection coefficients were
employed to gauge the level of protection for bio-diesel production using Jatropha in Sri Lanka. The cost
benefit analysis was performed to assess the feasibility of Jatropha bio-diesel production in Sri Lanka. The
conventional measures like NPV, BCR, and IRR were used in financial and economic terms. Nominal Rate of
Protection (NPR) was calculated by dividing the local Jatropha bio-diesel price by the border price of bio-
diesel. The NPR for Bio-diesel implies that nearly 47% of protection at local market level. Effective
Protection Rate (EPR) for seed production is 90%, for oil extraction and bio-diesel processing it is 128%.
Implication of this is that the producers will be protected and they receive returns 47% greater than what
they would have received under free market conditions for Jatropha cultivation. Except for the benchmark
situation, all other considered scenarios produce a favourable NPV, BCR and IRR for Jatropha bio-diesel
production. Economic benefits due to CO2 reduction were also considered in the analysis.
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Economic Analysis of Jatropha Bio-diesel Production in Sri Lanka
be planted as a monocrop (Morra et al., 2009). seeds was not economically viable in Kenya. It
If the fixed costs are minimized Jatropha is more economical to include processing of
production will be more cost effective than the biodiesel and substituting it for kerosene with
food crops. Mogaka et al. (2010) studied the higher IRR values than just selling the seeds.
feasibility of using Jatropha as an alternative This proves that advanced biodiesel production
energy source for the rural households in the for substituting kerosene is economically viable
coastal areas of Kenya. The venture is profitable (Wekesa et al., 2009).
when the seed price is doubled and project
worthiness parameters meet the satisfactory The other crucial aspect is the policies towards
levels. biofuel production. Inter alia, trade policies on
Potential of biofuel production from Jatropha biofuels have been gaining much attention in
cultivation in wastelands and subsequent socio- the recent past due to many countries shifting
economic development in degraded lands has the momentum to produce and trade biofuels.
been reported in India (Francis et al., 2005). Both developed and developing countries have
Although large production may involve implemented comprehensive policies to
economies of scale a small decentralized system increase the share of biofuel to the national
would be beneficial since it would include other energy supply. Subsidies and other forms of tax
benefits like creating employment, making fuel rebates are among the policy decisions.
supply widely available and facilitation of Promising biofuel industries have been
redistribution of local by products. developed in west with the aegis of
comprehensive policies from the respective
Cost benefit analysis shows that rather than governments (OECD, 2006). Even though there
going up to Jatropha seed production, moving to have been some initiation to promote renewable
biodiesel production and sale of by products energy production, no special policies are
would improve the venture’s profitability. available for Jatropha cultivation and biofuel
Improvements in market co-ordination and trade in Sri Lanka.
development of value chain and enhancing the
extraction technology would further increase the The common method to study degree of
parameters in concern i.e. NPV, IRR and BCR. protection and other export import policies for
The estimated socio economic benefits of long agricultural commodities are the nominal
term Jatropha cultivation prove that the protection coefficient (NPC) and effective
multifaceted benefits and opportunities could be protection coefficients (EPC). Even though
utilized to improve rural livelihoods and rural there are ample studies focused on food crops,
area development. no study has been done on the energy crops,
especially on Jatropha. NPC of a commodity is
Beerens (2007) show that large scale centralized the ratio of its domestic price to its border price.
system for Jatropha seed processing is viable NPC does not account for input prices. The EPC
than the decentralized pressing in Tanzania. For is defined as the ratio of value added in
the same level of production, the centralized domestic prices to value added in world prices,
production gives an IRR of 61% compared to more completely, it measures the incentives to
30-40% of IRR in decentralized processing. farmers.
Jatropha has a significant positive impact in the
rural communities in Tanzania. Depending on The EPC indicates the combined effects of
the seed yield, the added value to the local policies in the tradable commodities markets.
community which consist about 9,000 This is a useful measure because input and
inhabitants ranges from US$12,750 to 54,500. output policies, such as commodity price
This is equal to 100 annual minimum wage supports and fertilizer subsidies, are usually a
rates. Pro-poor Jatropha production entirely for part of a comprehensive policy package for
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PathmanathanSivashankarJeevikaWeerahewa, GaminiPushpakumara&LakshmanGalagedara
farmers (Conway and Bale, 1988). The EPC is 3. PROTECTION ENVIRONMENT FOR
crucial to producers since, it indicates the JATROPHA SEED PRODUCTION AND
degree of protection provided to domestic BIODIESEL PRODUCTION
production of import-competing goods. The
EPC measure has been widely used both by The degree of protection was measured using
governments to determine the level of Nominal Protection Rates (NPR) and Effective
protection to provide to domestic industries and Protection Rates (EPR).
by international organizations such as the World
Bank (Elbehri and McDougall, 1998). Socio- 𝑁𝑃𝑅 = (𝑁𝑃𝐶 − 1) × 100
economic benefits of Jatropha have been also
extensively studied by some authors (Francis et 𝑃𝑖𝑑
al., 2005). Where, 𝑁𝑃𝐶 = and
𝑃𝑖𝑤
2.1 Sri Lankan Context
𝐸𝑃𝑅 = (𝐸𝑃𝐶 − 1) × 100
Biomass (47%), hydropower (8%) and
petroleum (45%) are the main sources used for Where,
energy generation in Sri Lanka (UNESCAP, 𝑃𝑖𝑑 −∑𝑘 𝑑
𝑗=1 𝑎 𝑃𝑗
𝑖𝑗
2008). All petroleum products are imported. 𝐸𝑃𝐶𝑖 = and
Increasing amount of biomass is also 𝑃𝑖 −∑𝑗=1 𝑎 𝑃𝑗𝑤
𝑤 𝑘
𝑖𝑗
commercially grown and added. The average
import price of crude oil (cif) of an average of
US$108.59 a barrel in 2011, a 36% increase Where 𝑃𝑖𝑑 = Domestic price of output i ,
compared to the previous year (CBSL, 2011). 𝑎ij=unit of tradable input j per unit of output
Sri Lankan energy sector experienced a hit back I, 𝑃𝑗𝑑 = Domestic price of tradable input j,
when the international oil prices went up and 𝑃𝑖𝑤 = Border price of output I,
the hydro power generation dropped due to
𝑃𝑗𝑤 = Border price of tradable input j.
unfavourable weather conditions. Total oil
import bill increased by 58% to US$4.8 billion The border price is defined as the price in the
in 2011. international market converted into local
currency using an exchange rate. If the NPC >
Domestic retail prices for fuels were increased 1, domestic producers are receiving a higher
twice by Rs.24, Rs.11, and Rs.20 for petrol, price after the policy intervention, thus
diesel and kerosene respectively by the end of protected. A NPC > 1, the consumer has to pay
2011. Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority higher price for the commodity in concern. If
(SLESA) is looking at renewable energy the NPC < 1 then the consumer gets a lower
sources to overcome this crisis. It expects to price and producer is discriminated. If the NPC
increase the share of renewable energy to = 1, then the level of protection is neutral. The
generate power to 10% in 2015 and 20% by end producers and consumers are facing the same
of 2020. Investments have been made to domestic prices which are equal to the border
generate solar energy and biomass energy prices they would have faced without the policy
(CBSL 2011). intervention (Tshakok, 1990). An EPC >1,
indicates positive incentive effects of
This paves the path to look at alternative energy commodity policy (subsidy) whereas an EPC <
sources without sacrificing the food security of 1, shows negative incentives (a tax on farmers).
Sri Lanka. Thus, Jatropha biodiesel can be a EPC ignores the effects of transfers in the factor
viable option and research on Jatropha biodiesel market and therefore do not reflect the full
could bring potential benefits to the society. extent of incentives to farmers.
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Economic Analysis of Jatropha Bio-diesel Production in Sri Lanka
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PathmanathanSivashankarJeevikaWeerahewa, GaminiPushpakumara&LakshmanGalagedara
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Economic Analysis of Jatropha Bio-diesel Production in Sri Lanka
These three are the most commonly used were estimated during the first and second year,
indicators to measure the project worthiness and respectively. In the first instance, a cost-benefit
has been used in many feasibility studies of analysis was conducted under assumed
Jatropha biodiesel production. Net present value technical production parameters. The
is computed by finding the difference between considered technical parameters are, a) 1.33
the present worth of benefit stream less the kg/plant/year, b) 30% biodiesel extraction, c) 2
present worth of cost stream. m x 2 m spacing, d) 20 years of crop lifespan, e)
10.5% discount rate, f) Rs. 120/l of biodiesel
n
Ri Ci price, g) Full wage rate i.e. Rs. 515. Income
NPV components were mainly biodiesel and
i 1 1 r n byproduct sales.
Where, Ri = Gross Return of the ith year , Project worthiness was assessed by estimating
Ci = Cost incurred in ith year, n = Planning NPV, IRR and BCR. At next, key variables
period were identified from the earlier CBA and they
were altered at feasible levels to conduct a
Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) is the ratio of sensitivity analysis. This analysis was done in
present worth of benefit stream to present worth two scenarios. At first scenario it was with fully
of cost stream. The investment is said to be hired labour and the second was with half of the
profitable when the BCR is one or greater than labour requirement replaced by family labour.
1. This method is widely used in economic Key variables chosen for the sensitivity analysis
analysis and not in private investment analysis. are, I) seed yield (1.33 and 2.00 kg/plant/year),
B / C Ratio
PVB II) by products (with and without scenario), and
PVC III) hired labour versus Family labour. Finally
worthiness of the each project was assessed and
Where, PVB = Present Value Benefit, and compared with the baseline data.
PVC = Present Value Cost
Table 5 depicts the Project worth measures both
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is the discount in terms of financial and economic analysis
rate which just makes the NPV of the cash flow terms. Since economic benefits are high due to
equal zero. It represents the average earning CDM opportunities in this project the economic
power of the money used in the project over the analysis is more feasible than financial analysis.
project life. It is also called yield of the With full wage level all the scenarios are
investment. Jatropha cultivation and biodiesel feasible except the baseline scenario. At
extraction project was considered to be benchmark level, a negative NPV is obtained
continued for 20 years. Capital equipments were with a unit BCR and 10% IRR. This level is not
depreciated at the end of each year by 5% and feasible in financial terms. In economics term,
considered no salvage value at the end of 20th the project is worth as NPV reaches LKR 18mn
year. The cost components included all the with 21% higher returns (BCR 1.21) and 16%
activities from land preparation to seed of IRR. The considered discount rate is 10.5%.
cultivation, oil extraction, and biodiesel For a 147 ha Jatropha plantation around 200
tranesterification. The cost of producing a man days of employment is generated in the
planting material (i.e. a cutting or seedling) was first year and 50 man days are generated from
assumed as Rs. 35. During the first year, 2500 the second year onwards. Thus totally 1150 man
plants were assumed to be planted per hectare days of employment is generated by this
and 500 plants were considered to be necessary project. Moreover, income generation from
for replanting. In total 100 plants were allocated CO2 reduction per year for a hectare is around
for one man-day and 25 and 5 man-days/ha LKR 4024. For the total project period the
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PathmanathanSivashankarJeevikaWeerahewa, GaminiPushpakumara&LakshmanGalagedara
income from CO2 reduction amounts to LKR from the existing labor markets. Since other
11,829,825. The all the other scenarios show countries have also heavily protected the
that the project is worthwhile with sufficient agriculture sector it would be difficult to export
NPV, BCR and IRR. Since there are less the product. The current trend has been a
environmental damage and more environmental fluctuation of conventional diesel prices and it
benefits, those will be accounted for the benefits is being kept high due to the higher tax rate
in the economic analysis. Thus, economic being implemented. So for Jatropha biodiesel to
analysis exceeds the financial analysis. be marketable it has to be below the market
price of diesel. But the current trends in diesel
Cost benefit analysis has been used in other are that prices are declining after 2012. It will
studies related to Jatropha Biodiesel production. be difficult to produce biodiesel when diesel
However their results do not show a favourable prices are kept low.
scenario. Studies extending to economic cost
benefit analysis are scarce. Van Eijck et al.
(2012) concludesJatropha Biodiesel production Table 5: NPV, BCR, and IRR values for
incurs higher costs than conventional diesel. Jatropha Biodiesel Production
Further resource extansive cultivation yields Financial Economic
less returns due to poor resource inputs. Analysis Analysis
Another study by Van Eijck et al. (2013) finds
Biodiesel &
Biodiesel &
By Product
By Product
Biodiesel
Biodiesel
that until better varieties and techniques are
developed Jatropha biodiesel production will
only
only
only be limited to poor and disadvantaged areas.
Poor and unreliable yiled is a major problem in NP 49.33 26.66 59.3 30.84
Jatropha. Cynthia and Teong (2011), Mogaka et V mn mn mn mn
Yield/Half
wage
A similar analysis by Mogaka et al. (2012) finds R 1.79 1.53 2.72 2.25
Jatropha venture is not feasible in Kenya given IRR 0.20 0.18 0.25 0.24
the current institutional setup. In Most of the NP 24.4 -0.4
Low Y/Full
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Economic Analysis of Jatropha Bio-diesel Production in Sri Lanka
The results of cost benefit analysis reveal that CYNTHIA OB, TEONG LK. Feasibility of
the Jatropha production for biodiesel is Jatropha oil for biodiesel: Economic Analysis.
financially and economically feasible in Sri World Renewable Energy Congress, Linkoping,
Lanka given the favourable yields of the plant. Sweden. 8-13th May, 2011.
Further, a support from the government would
help to establish a Jatropha supply chain. ELBEHRI A, MCDOUGALL RA. Data base
However the literature suggests that cross summary: effective rates of protection. In
country experiences in Jatropha cultivation McDougall RA, Elbehri A, Truong TP, editors.
cannot be shared and vary depending on the Global trade assistance and protection: The
host country climate, management and varieties. GTAP 4 database. Center for Global Trade
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PathmanathanSivashankarJeevikaWeerahewa, GaminiPushpakumara&LakshmanGalagedara
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Economic Analysis of Jatropha Bio-diesel Production in Sri Lanka
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