Amazon vs Visa Stock Performance Analysis
Amazon vs Visa Stock Performance Analysis
MBA 573
Section N70
Integrity Statement: I have read the Student Academic Code of Conduct and this assignment
complies with the Code.
Contents
Introduction......................................................................................................................................2
1
Amazon........................................................................................................................................2
Visa..............................................................................................................................................3
Statistical Model:..............................................................................................................................3
1. Amazon................................................................................................................................3
2. Visa.......................................................................................................................................3
1. Amazon:.............................................................................................................................11
1) Amazon..............................................................................................................................14
2) Visa:....................................................................................................................................14
Technical Analysis:.........................................................................................................................15
1) Amazon:.............................................................................................................................15
2) Visa.....................................................................................................................................17
Qualitative Analysis:.......................................................................................................................18
Conclusion:....................................................................................................................................19
2
understand whether there is positive or negative future prospective in the Amazon and Visa
stocks.
In order to do a valuation of a stock for Amazon and Visa stock it would be done through
Statistical Models, Free Cash Flow, Residual Income, Market Valuation Models and
Technical Analysis.
Statistical Model:
1. Amazon: The Key-Statistics for Amazon is Beta 1.73 which is very high due to
which volatility of Amazon is very high and it clearly indicates that the risk
involvement is very high (Yahoo Finance, 2019). Further, profits or losses will be
very due to high beta. Amazon 52-week low was 1307 and high was 2050.50 which
clearly indicates there was a huge fluctuation in stock prices which will have huge
deviations in stock prices which will affect the profitability accordingly (Yahoo
Finance, 2019).
Amazon is having an EPS of 23.95 which indicates that whether Amazon is having a
good return on the stocks with such a high return it indicates that the stock can
provide good returns to the shareholders (Yahoo Finance, 2019).
2. Visa: The Key-Statistics for Visa is Beta 0.86 which is comparatively low, and the
involvement of risk would be also less as returns and losses will be very limited as the
stock is less risky (Yahoo Finance,2019). Visa 52-week low was 121.60 whereas the
high was 174.81 which indicates the fluctuations was limited which will impact the
profit or losses limited (Yahoo Finance, 2019). Visa is having an EPS of 4.84 which
indicates that the returns are stable and are not very high due to limited stock
fluctuations as the risk involvement is limited (Yahoo Finance, 2019).
3
Free Cash Flow Model:
1. Amazon: The current stock price of Amazon is 1869.67 (Yahoo Finance, 2019)
whereas it is expected to reach around 2446.43 in 2021. There has been a 31% increase in the
stock price from 17th June’2019 which is a good indicator for investors.
$5,000
$0
12/31/2019 12/31/2020 12/31/2021
-$1,266
-$5,000
-$7,135
-$10,000
ii. Revenue
Revenue
$350,000 $312,516
$300,000 $283,332
$256,874
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
12/31/2019 12/31/2020 12/31/2021
4
Current Assets
$140,000 $129,775
$120,000 $108,145
$100,000 $90,121
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$0
12/31/2019 12/31/2020 12/31/2021
Current Liabilities
$71,000
$70,463
$70,500
$70,000 $69,766
$69,500
$69,075
$69,000
$68,500
$68,000
12/31/2019 12/31/2020 12/31/2021
Assumptions:
a) Tax Rate: The existing corporate tax rate has been considered which is there in the
United States of around 21% (Trading Economies, 2019) and there are some tax regulations
depending on that stock price may arise or fall depending on those situations.
b) Sales Growth: Amazon is being one of the giant players in the ecommerce industry it
would be very difficult for other players to match the standard of Amazon level. At Least they
would increase by 10.30% which is a significant growth. On an overall level in the past 2
years Amazon sales has increased by 10% historically which is likely to increase in the future
as well.
c) WACC: The current WACC of Amazon is around 13.37% (Gurufocus, 2019) based on
the last financial year of the company’s performance even though the WACC of Amazon has
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risen in the past years and due to which it is mostly likely to result in a higher WACC in
future. But it will at least maintain the same level of WACC in future as well.
d) Perpetual Growth Rate: It has been considered as 2% which will consider all the
market fluctuations, interest rate and inflation which will result in a growth of 2% in every
year for the Amazon.
e) EV / EBITDA: For Amazon it has been considered as 30.30 (Yahoo Finance, 2019)
which will be help us to arrive at the future price of the stock if Amazon business continues to
be at a same value in future as well what would be the expected stock price.
g) EBIT Growth: The EBIT growth has been considered as 70% in order to give a fair
value of Amazon. As in the previous year which resulted in a rise of EBIT by 200% in 2018
(Financial Statements, 2019) which is very unlikely that Amazon’s EBIT will continue to rise
by 200% in every year. Considering various situations which may arise 70% of EBIT will be
identical as Amazon is the leading business in the e-commerce sector.
i) Debt: In the past financial year it was around $24,743 million (Financial Statements,
2019) whereas in certain financial years it has resulted in an increase or decrease of Debt.
While considering the market changes a debt of $24,743 would be considered which was
there in the last financial year. If it continues to maintain the same about of debt and is not
likely to increase the proportion of Debt.
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j) Cash: It would be difficult to tell whether in future they would willing to keep a high
amount of cash or not. The higher the cash it helps to stabilize the operations of business
activities for a short-term period. But since if it maintains the same amount of cash in the next
3 years so cash is considered as $20,522 which was maintained in 2018. If it wants to keep
limited idle cash and 2018 cash & cash equivalent has been considered.
k) Capital Expenditure: In the historical years it has been observed that in the past 2
years which has accumulated 44.86% and there is some positive and negative fluctuation. In
order to arrive at a fair justification so the average of the last 2 years has been considered.
l) Fixed Assets: Amazon is having a large-scale business it is highly evident that they
will invest in long-term in order to have the latest technology. So investment in fixed assets is
a considering. To arrive at a fair justification the past year’s data of two financial years has
been considered and which has arrived to 18%.
m) Current Assets & Current Liabilities: In order to expand a business which will result
in an increase in Current Assets and as they have invested heavily in 2018 so the proportion
of current assets rise would be around 1.20 whereas the Current liabilities would be around
1.01.
n) Free Cash Flow: Amazon has incurred a huge expense, and which would impact on the
subsequent years for the operations of business. It is very necessary to clear all the debt in the
current financial year. As Amazon scale of business is very large it wouldn’t get impacted so
much with negative Free Cash Flow as the situation would improve as once the profits started
to increase.
Considering above all factors, based on which in this model the stock price would be around
2,446.43 in the year 2021 which is comparatively a good return on stocks and the stock price
has gained up to 31% which has resulted in a good return to the investors. If Amazon
achieves a minimum level of growth which is stated above or more than minimum 31% of
growth is expected for Amazon by 2021.
2. Visa: The current stock price of Visa is 169.66 (Yahoo Finance, 2019) whereas it is
expected to reach around 270.39 in 2021. There has been a 36% increase in the stock price
from 17th June’2019 which is a good indicator for investors.
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Free Cash Flow
$25,000
$19,098
$20,000
$14,113
$15,000
$10,404
$10,000
$5,000
$0
9/30/2019 9/30/2020 9/30/2021
ii. Revenue
Revenue
$30,000 $27,656
$25,073
$25,000 $22,732
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
9/30/2019 9/30/2020 9/30/2021
Current Assets
$35,000
$29,929
$30,000
$25,364
$25,000 $21,495
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
9/30/2019 9/30/2020 9/30/2021
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Current Liabilities
$12,600
$12,353
$12,400
$12,200
$11,993
$12,000
$11,800
$11,644
$11,600
$11,400
$11,200
9/30/2019 9/30/2020 9/30/2021
Assumptions:
a. Tax Rate: The existing corporate tax rate has been considered which is there in the
United States of around 21% (Trading Economies, 2019) and there are some tax regulations
depending on that stock price may arise or fall depending on those situations.
b. Sales Growth: Visa is being one of the giant players in the e-payment industry it
would be very difficult for other players to match the standards of Visa. Being a major player
in e-payment and based on the company's historical performance, it is expected that it would
get increased by 10.30%. Overall sales have increased by 10% historically which is more
likely to continue in the future as well.
c. WACC: The current WACC of Visa is around 8.64% (Gurufocus, 2019) based on the
last financial year of the company’s performance even though the WACC of Visa has risen in
the past years and due to which it is mostly likely to result in a higher WACC in future. But it
will at least maintain the same level of WACC in future as well as what it was in 2018.
d. Perpetual Growth Rate: It has been considered as 2% which will consider all the
market fluctuations, interest rate and inflation which will result in a growth of 2% in every
year for the Visa.
e. EV / EBITDA: For Visa it has been considered as 26.12 (Yahoo Finance, 2019) which
will help us to arrive at the future price of the stock if Visa business continues to be at a same
value in future what would be the expected stock price.
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in past 2 years. On a historical basis it has been around 7 to 15% (Investor Visa, 2019). As
Visa is in a e-payment sector the investment in fixed assets would be comparatively less
which is very highly that depreciation will also be lower.
g. EBIT Growth: The EBIT growth has been considered as 32%. As in the previous 2
financial year the business has risen by 32% which is very highly that it will continue to rise
around by the same proportion. Having a stable growth so it is more likely that it will
continue to achieve minimum 32% of growth in EBIT in the next 3 years based on the Visa
past performance growth in the last 2 financial years.
h. Shares Outstanding: Visa shares outstanding is considered in 2018 was 1782 million
(Investor Visa, 2019). Considering the trend that no. of shares outstanding is decreasing
which is likely to decrease in the future as well. There can be situations when there have been
some drastic changes happens and shareholders may not hold the Visa stock in coming years
and want to close their positions which would be very difficult to highlight. So, while
evaluating the stock price shares outstanding would be considered of 2018 financial data
which is 1782 million.
i. Debt: In the past financial year it was around $16,630 million whereas in certain
financial years it has resulted in an increase or decrease. While considering the financial
factors a debt of $16,630 would be considered which was there in the last financial year.
j. Cash: It would be difficult to tell whether in future they would willing to keep a high
amount of cash or not. The higher the cash it helps to stabilize the operations of business
activities for a short-term period. If it maintains the same amount of cash as of 2018, we have
considered of $8,162 if Visa decided to maintain a low amount of idle cash in order to expand
its operations.
k. Capital Expenditure: In the historical years it has been observed that in the past 2
years which has accumulated 17.50% and there is some positive and negative fluctuation. In
order to arrive at a fair justification so the average of the last 2 financial years has been
considered.
l. Fixed Assets: Visa is having an e-payment business which is highly evident that their
investment in long-term assets will be comparatively less due to the nature of business as
electronic payments investment in long-term assets is comparatively less. To arrive at a fair
justification two years past data of financial years has been considered for which it is 6.87%.
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m. Current Assets & Current Liabilities: In order to expand a business which will result
in an increase in Current Assets and as they need to sufficiently care out business transactions
who have invested in 2018 so the proportion of current assets rise would be around 1.18
whereas the Current liabilities would be around 1.03.
n. Free Cash Flow: Visa has incurred a limited expense, and which would hardly impact
operations of business. As Visa is having a large scale business it would be better to have a
positive Free Cash Flow if they want to invest heavily in which they would be able to cover
those expenses as business is flourishing and it is continuously rising as well.
Considering above all factors, based on this model the stock price would be around 270.39 in
the year 2021 which is comparatively a good return on stocks which has resulted an overall
gain of 59% which is comparatively challenging as the stock volatile is low. But being a
leader in 3 years’ time it is an achievable target for the Visa.
2000.00
1500.00
1000.00
500.00
0.00
2018 2019 2020 2021
Opening Book Value Per Share Closing Book Value Ending Per Share
Residual Income Per Share Share Price Per Share
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a. Earnings Per Share: The company’s EPS is considered as 75% based on historical 2
years data as the Amazon earnings per share is increasing it is very likely that the returns on
earnings will also continue to grow at the same or it will rate considering the performance of
Amazon stock in past.
b. WACC: The current WACC of Amazon is around 13.37% (Guru focus, 2019) based
on the last financial year of the company’s performance but on a historical basis the WACC
of Amazon has risen in the past years and due to which it is mostly likely to result in a higher
WACC in future but it will at least maintain the same value of WACC.
d. Growth: It is expected the Amazon will likely grow by 10% based on the company’s
performance.
Considering the above situations, it clearly states that the stock of Amazon in Residual Model
is overvalued based on the stock price. In 2018 it is expected to be around 886 whereas in
2021 it should be around 2055 which clearly indicates that the stock is overvalued. As in
2018, the stock is currently trading at 1869.67 (Yahoo Finance, 2019).
2. Visa: The current stock price of Visa is 153.83 in 2018 whereas in 2021 it is expected to be
336. There are various factors which have been mentioned below.
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
2018 2019 2020 2021
Opening Book Value Per Share Closing Book Value Ending Per Share
Residual Income Per Share Share Price Per Share
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a. Earnings Per Share: The company’s EPS is considered as 34.63% based on historical
2 years data as the Visa stock earnings per share is increasing it is very likely that the returns
on earnings will be maintained at the same level or it will improve their existing performance
of Visa stock.
b. Dividend: Visa in the past have given the dividend of around 18.40% in the past 2
years financial data if it continues to give the dividend at the same rate as Visa is having
better stock prospect and it is a matured company.
c. WACC: The current WACC of Visa is around 8.67% in 2018 (Gurufocus, 2019) based
on the last financial year of the company’s performance but on a historical basis the WACC
of Visa has risen in the past years and due to which it is mostly likely that they will continue
to maintain at the same rate or it will result in a higher WACC in future. But if it at least
maintains the same level of WACC which it had maintained in 2018 which it was around
8.67.
d. Return on Equity: Visa returns on equity is continuously increasing and in 2018 it was
around 30.56% (Macro Trends, 2019). It is very likely that it would at least maintain the same
level of growth in Return on Equity as they are already a market leader in e-payment industry
e. Growth: It is expected the Visa will likely grow by 6% based on the company’s
performance. As the WACC of the Visa is around 8.67% so ideally it should be less than that
and since the stock price cannot be negative.
Considering the above situations, it clearly states that the stock of Visa in Residual Model is
overvalued based on the stock price. In 2018 it is expected to be around 105 whereas in 2021
it should be expected to be around 230 which clearly stated that the stock is overvalued. But
being a leader in e-payment I believe that it should be valued around 260 to 280 from the 3
years’ time as the economy is going to increase and the stock of Visa as well as it is in a
mature business. As in 17th June 2018, the stock is currently trading at 169.66 (Yahoo
Finance, 2019).
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Market Based Valuation:
1) Amazon:
In order to evaluate the position of the Amazon in comparison to its competitors how
it has performed with respect to its peer competitors whether the Amazon stock is
performing below par or the above its standards. It has been witnessed that the
Amazon EV / Sales is around 3.05 whereas the industry average is 1.19 which clearly
indicates that the Amazon stock is over-valued in comparison to its peer competitors.
Amazon is one of the biggest giants in the its peer competitors and others find it very
difficult to sustain in the market. The revenue is increasing by 10% for all the firms
and no. of shares outstanding and Enterprise Value has been considered on 17th
June’19 (Yahoo Finance, 2019). If Amazon Debt changes and rest everything it
maintains as per the Free Cash Flow Model, it is expected that the stock price will rise
to 1929.69 in 3 years which is very less, and the stock is over-valued based on the
above assumptions.
2) Visa:
Share No. of Market Net EV /
Peers Price Shares Capital Debt EV Sales Sales
E-Bay 38.91 871 33891 5559 39450 14303 2.76
Alibaba 158.1 2600 411060 560 411620 501579 0.82
Walmart 109.07 2850 310850 73881 384730 684673 0.56
Costco 260.15 440 114466 -1386 113080 188438 0.60
-
920438 825190
Amazon 1869.67 4923 5 5 952480 312515 3.05
Amazon after 3
years 1911.83
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In order to evaluate the position of the Visa in comparison to its peer competitors how
it has performed with respect to its peer competitors where the Visa stock is
performing below par or above its standards. It has been noticed that Visa EV / Sales
is around 13.80 whereas the industry average is 6.27 which clearly indicates that the
Visa stock is priced in comparison to its peer competitors. Visa is one of the giant
players in the electronic payment system and their peers find it very difficult to
sustain in the market. The revenue is increasing by 10% for all the firms and no. of
shares outstanding and Enterprise Value has been considered on 17th June’19 (Yahoo
Finance, 2019). If Visa Debt changes and rest everything it maintains as per the Free
Cash Flow Model, it is expected that the stock price will rise to 238.42 in 3 years
which is a fair justification in 3 years.
Technical Analysis:
1) Amazon:
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Amazon stock is in the golden cross period where the 50 day moving average has moved
upwards from the 20 day moving average which clearly indicates that the stock is having a
positive growth and it is more likely the stock will continue to grow in the future as well
based on their trend. In the short-run volatility of a stock is also very important and there is
more likely a cyclical pattern continues, and positive and negative fluctuations also vary.
There have been very few instances that the stock has been overbought on 26th April’19 there
was such a scenario happened where it was overbought when the stock prices were rising,
and it was expecting that stock price will go up. But after that the stock price is falling. On
3rd June’19 it was oversold as the stock prices continue to decline as investors were
expecting that stock may fall much lower but suddenly after that it started to rise again.
Some of the techniques used to derive the stock performance which are mentioned below.
a. Support & Resistance Line : When the stock price was trading around 1760 it is
considered as support line as it is expected that the stock price won’t fall beyond this price
even though there will be some fluctuations and the stock would be expected to rise in the
future. The resistance line is around 1900 where the stock will mostly fluctuate in those
prices. In considering the matured stocks it is likely that the stock will more likely increase
rather than fall as Amazon is being a leader which gives an edge over their competitors.
b. Wedges: In Amazon stock there since 14th February’19 to 6th May’19 the stock
prices were continuously increasing and the investors were having a bullish trends where they
were expecting the stock price to rise whereas from 6th May’19 to June’19 investors were
expecting the stock to fall.
On a whole it has been noticed that stocks which has more growth potential will have longer
bullish position rather than bearish position.
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2) Visa
Visa stock has crossed the golden cross in February and 20 day moving average and 50 day
moving average is continuously increasing which indicates that there is a strong growth
performance. Around 15th Mar’19 to 17th Mar’19 the stock was overbought as the stock
prices were continuously increasing and investors were expecting that stock price will rise.
Again, on 30th April’19 the stock was overbought as investors were expecting a bullish
position but suddenly after that the stock started to decline. Whenever the RSI is higher than
in the next trading day it is most likely that the stock will collapse.
a. Support & Resistance Line: When the stock price was trading around 155 it has been
considered as a support line as it is expected that it won’t fall beyond that price and around
165 it is considered as resistance line. As the stock is more likely to fluctuate in it. However,
in the mature company stocks in future the resistance and the support line may vary it as there
is a growth perspective in those stocks.
b. Wedges: In Visa stock the stock was continuously rising towards an increasing trend
which indicated that the market was bullish trend and investors were expecting stock prices to
rise whereas investors were having a bearish position from 6th May’19 to 13th May’19 where
they were expecting the stock price to decline..
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Qualitative Analysis:
1. Amazon: Amazon has diversified its portfolio in e-commerce, Amazon Prime, Cloud
Computing which is able to fetch higher returns to the shareholders and these factors
can cause the stock prices to move upwards. With the advancement in technologies
and there is a rise in demand of these products which will help to improve the stock
price in future and Amazon will have a competitive edge in comparison to its
competitors. The drawback for Amazon can be if the Amazon Prime shipping falls
which will affects the demand and customer’s will be dissatisfied due to failure in
prime business of e-commerce for shipping the products which Amazon has a very
good reputation which would hamper it very badly. The piracy is increasing, and
which can impact the revenue to the Amazon prime which will substantially reduce
the revenue for Amazon.
Based on positives and negatives which is mentioned above can significantly improve
the stock price or vice-versa which will have a huge impact on the stock prices in the
futures.
2. Visa: Visa provide transaction processing services (primarily authorization, clearing
and settlement) to our financial institution and merchant clients through VisaNet
platform. During fiscal 2018, Visa saw 182 billion payments and cash transactions
with Visa’s brand, equating to an average of 500 million transactions a day. Of the 182
billion totals transactions, 124.3 billion were processed by Visa.
Visa have adopted new digital payment and security technologies, such as contactless
and tokenization. Visa have accelerated the pace of change in digital payments by
making application programming interfaces (APIs) available in an effort to increase
access to our network, products and services, offering innovation opportunities at our
ten global innovation network locations, and building partnerships with new players,
such as financial technology companies, commonly known as fintechs.
Visa expands its operation and being already established brand in the industry which
will help them to gain the market share comparatively easier as they are already
established players. Visa extends its operation in E-Commerce or Commercial
Banking which will help them to gain competitive advantage which will help to rise
the stock prices in future if these changes occur.
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But if there is an issue in the security and the client’s information gets hacked which
will hamper the existing client’s situation and the goodwill of the business will be lost
which will directly affect the stock prices as customers will lose the faith in Visa.
Further, based on the above positive and negative outlook these changes can impact
severely and stock prices might affect seriously based on the respective results
positive or negative.
Conclusion:
In comparison Amazon and Visa both are performing well and returns are good for the
investors and it would be a good option to invest in both the stocks as investors will gain as
both the business is having a better prospect and being the leaders in their respective sector.
Amazon would be able to fetch higher returns and earnings will also be very high which will
result into a higher profitability whereas in the Visa it would be limited in comparison to
Amazon. If you are risk taker investor you would prefer to invest in a Amazon stock whereas
if you prefer less risk Visa will be the most feasible option in these two stocks. If you want to
take limited risks, you would invest in both the tocks depending on your risking taking
capabilities. However, both the stocks are good to invest in.
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References:
E-Consultancy, 2019. Three key retail & ecommerce trends from Meeker’s
Internet Report 2019. Retrieved from E-Consultancy
https://econsultancy.com/three-key-retail-ecommerce-trends-meekers-
internet-report-2019/
Investor Visa, 2019. Visa Financial Statements 2018. Retrieved from Investor
Visa
https://s1.q4cdn.com/050606653/files/doc_financials/annual/2018/Visa-
2018-Annual-Report-FINAL.pdf
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