ESTIMATION OF

PARAMETERS
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OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION ILOILO CHAPTER

1. Provide point estimates of the population mean and proportion

2. Construct interval estimates of the population mean and

proportion

3. Compute the required sample size for estimating the population

mean and proportion

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ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS ILOILO CHAPTER

POPULATION
(Normally Distributed)

𝑥, 𝑆2, 𝑝
μ , σ2, P
(Parameters) (Statistics)

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INTRODUCTION ILOILO CHAPTER

Statistical Inference
refers to methods by which one uses sample information to make
inferences or generalizations about a population

Two Areas of Statistical Inference

1. Estimation
2. Hypothesis Testing

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Estimation - a process of estimating a population
ILOILO CHAPTER
characteristic using information obtained from a sample

Estimator – any statistic whose value is used to estimate an

unknown parameter.

Estimate – a realization of an estimator

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 Two Types of Estimates ILOILO CHAPTER

1. Point Estimate – a single number that estimates the true

value of a population parameter.

2. Interval Estimate – is a range of values used to estimate

an unknown parameter.

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 Unbiased Estimator
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if the average of the estimates it produces under repeated
sampling is equal to the true value of the parameter being
estimated

A parameter can have more than one unbiased estimator.

Choose the unbiased estimator with the smallest variance.
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Unbiased Estimator with Minimum Variance
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 INTERVAL ESTIMATION ILOILO CHAPTER

• Interval estimator is a rule that tells us how to calculate two numbers

based on sample data, forming an interval within which the
parameter is expected to lie

• Interval estimate is the realized value of the interval estimator

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Example : The running time of films (in minutes) produced by
ILOILO CHAPTER
Star Cinema are as follows: 103 94 110 87 98

A 95% confidence interval for the mean running time of all the films
produced by Star Cinema is (87.6 , 109.2)

0.95 – confidence coefficient or degree of confidence

87.6 and 109.2 – lower and upper confidence limit, respectively

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In general, we construct a (1-α)100% confidence interval
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Interpretation:
If we take repeated samples of size n and if for each one of these
samples we compute the (1-α)100% confidence interval, then
(1-α)100% of the resulting confidence intervals will contain the
unknown value of the parameter.

𝑃 𝑎 < 𝜇 < 𝑏 = 1 − 𝛼 The probability that the interval estimator

encloses or contains the true value of the parameter.

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• A good confidence interval is one that is as narrow as possible
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and has a large confidence coefficient, near 1.
• The narrower the interval, the more exactly we have located
the parameter
• The larger the confidence coefficient, the more confidence we have
that a particular interval encloses the true value of the parameter
• However, for a fixed sample size, as the confidence coefficient
increases, the length of the interval also increases.
• Recommended (1-α) values: 0.95 , 0.99

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Point Estimate of μ
ILOILO CHAPTER

𝑛
1
𝑥= 𝑥𝑖
𝑛
𝑖=1

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(1-α)100% Confidence Interval for μ
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Confidence Interval Estimate Condition

𝜎 𝜎 When sampling from a normal

(𝑥 − 𝑧𝛼 , 𝑥 + 𝑧𝛼 )
2 𝑛 2 𝑛 population with known 𝜎

𝑆 𝑆 When sampling from a normal

(𝑥 − 𝑡𝛼 , 𝑥 + 𝑡𝛼 ) population with unknown 𝜎 and n ≤ 30
2 𝑛 2 𝑛

𝑆 𝑆 When sampling from a normal

(𝑥 − 𝑧𝛼 , 𝑥 + 𝑧𝛼 ) population with unknown 𝜎 and n > 30
2 𝑛 2 𝑛

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 ILOILO CHAPTER

𝜎 𝜎
𝑃 𝑥 − 𝑧𝛼 < 𝜇 < 𝑥 + 𝑧𝛼 =1−𝛼
2 𝑛 2 𝑛

𝛼
𝑧𝛼 is the z value leaving an area of to the right
2 2

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ILOILO CHAPTER

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 ILOILO CHAPTER

𝑡𝛼 is the t value with v = n - 1 degrees of freedom

2
𝛼
leaving an area of to the right
2

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Comparison Between the Z and t distribution ILOILO CHAPTER

1. Both distributions are symmetric around zero

2. Both distributions are asymptotic with respect to the horizontal-axis
3. The t-distribution is more variable than the z distribution
4. The t value approaches the z value as n becomes large
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 Point Estimate of P
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𝑋
𝑝= ,
𝑛

𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑋 = 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑛 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠

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(1-α)100% Confidence Interval for P
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𝑝𝑞 𝑝𝑞
𝑝 − 𝑧𝛼 , 𝑝 + 𝑧𝛼
2 𝑛 2 𝑛

if p is not too close to 0 or 1, and 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝

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 EXAMPLE 1 ILOILO CHAPTER

Miss Dinagyang committee member wishes to estimate the

average height of an Ilongga who is a potential candidate for Miss
Dinagyang 2018. Last year from 300 who auditioned, the average
height was 170 cm and the standard deviation was 1.05cm. Assuming
that the heights are normally distributed, find the point estimate and
construct a 95% confidence interval for their true average height.

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EXAMPLE 1 Solution ILOILO CHAPTER

Given: n = 300 𝑥 = 170cm S = 1.05 cm 1-α = 0.95

Point Estimate
170 cm is the point estimate of the average height of an Ilongga
who is a potential candidate for Miss Dinagyang.

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Let 𝜇 = average height of all potential candidates for
Miss Dinagyang in the population ILOILO CHAPTER

𝑆 𝑆
𝑃 𝑥 − 𝑧𝛼 < 𝜇 < 𝑥 + 𝑧𝛼 =1−𝛼
2 𝑛 2 𝑛

1.05 1.05
𝑃 170 − 1.96 < 𝜇 < 170 + 1.96 = 0.95
300 300
𝑃 169.88 < 𝜇 < 170.12 = 0.95

The committee member is 95% confident that the interval between

169.88 cm and 170.12 cm contains the true average height of all
potential candidates for Miss Dinagyang

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 EXAMPLE 2 ILOILO CHAPTER

Regular consumption of presweetened cereals contribute to tooth

decay, heart disease, and other degenerative diseases, according to a
study by Dr. Albreight of the National Institute of Health and Dr.
Solomon, Professor of Nutrition and Dietetics at the University of
London. In a random sample of 20 similar servings of Alpha-Bits, the
mean sugar content was 11.3 grams with a standard deviation of 2.45
grams. Assuming that the sugar content is normally distributed,
construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean sugar content for
single servings of Alpha-Bits.

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EXAMPLE 2 Solution ILOILO CHAPTER

Given: n = 20 𝑥 = 11.3 g

S = 2.45 g 1-α = 0.95

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Let 𝜇 = average sugar content of all single servings of
ILOILO CHAPTER
Alpha-Bits in the population
𝑆 𝑆
𝑃 𝑥 − 𝑡𝛼 < 𝜇 < 𝑥 + 𝑡𝛼 =1−𝛼
2 𝑛 2 𝑛

2.45 2.45
𝑃 11.3 − 2.093 < 𝜇 < 11.3 + 2.093 = 0.95
20 20

𝑃 10.153 < 𝜇 < 12.447 = 0.95

We are 95% confident that the interval between 10.153g and 12.447g
contains the true average sugar content of all single servings of Alpha-Bits

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 EXAMPLE 3 ILOILO CHAPTER

In a random sample of 500 people eating lunch at a cafeteria on

various Fridays, it was found that X = 160 preferred seafood. Find a
95% confidence interval for the actual proportion of people who eat
seafood on Fridays at this cafeteria.

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EXAMPLE 3 Solution ILOILO CHAPTER

Given: X = 160 n = 500

Point Estimate of p
160
𝑝= = 0.32
500

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Let p = actual proportion of people who eat seafood
on Fridays at this cafeteria ILOILO CHAPTER

𝑝𝑞 𝑝𝑞
𝑃 𝑝 − 𝑧𝛼 < 𝑝 < 𝑝 + 𝑧𝛼 =1−𝛼
2 𝑛 2 𝑛

0.32 0.68 0.32)(0.68

𝑃 0.32 − 1.96 < 𝑝 < 0.32 + 1.96 = 0.95
500 500

𝑃 0.28 < p < 0.36 = 0.95

We are 95% confident that the interval between 0.28 and 0.36 contains the true
proportion of people who eat seafood on Fridays at this cafeteria

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Sample Size for Estimating μ ILOILO CHAPTER

Error

σ σ
𝑥 − 𝑧𝛼 𝑥 𝜇 𝑥 + 𝑧𝛼
2 𝑛 2 𝑛

Error in Estimating 𝜇 by 𝑥

𝑧𝛼 𝜎
2
𝑒=
𝑛

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 Sample Size for Estimating μ ILOILO CHAPTER

If 𝑥 is used as an estimate of μ, then we can be (1-α)100%

confident that the error will not exceed a specified amount, e, when
the sample size is

𝑧𝛼 2
𝜎
2
𝑛=
𝑒

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 EXAMPLE 4 ILOILO CHAPTER

How large a sample is required in Example 1 if we want to be

95% confident that our estimate of μ is not off by more than 0.25cm?

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EXAMPLE 4 Solution ILOILO CHAPTER

• Given: 𝑧𝛼 = 1.96 S = 1.05 e = 0.25

2
(1.96)(1.05) 2
𝑛= ≈ 68
0.25

Therefore, we can be 95% confident that our estimate of μ will

not be off by more than 0.25cm if the sample size is 68.

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 Sample Size for Estimating p ILOILO CHAPTER

If 𝑝 is used as an estimate of p, then we can be (1-α)100%

confident that the error will not exceed a specified amount, e, when
the sample size is

𝑧𝛼2
2 𝑝𝑞
𝑛=
𝑒2

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 EXAMPLE 5 ILOILO CHAPTER

How large a sample is required in Example 3 if we want to be

95% confident that our estimate of p is within 0.02?

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EXAMPLE 5 Solution ILOILO CHAPTER

Given: 𝑝 = 0.32 e = 0.02 𝑧𝛼 = 1.96

2

1.96 2 (0.32)(0.68)
𝑛= = 2090
(0.02)2

Therefore, we can be 95% confident that our sample proportion

will not differ from the true proportion by more than 0.02 if the
sample size is 2090.

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 DEEPEN ILOILO CHAPTER

1. Find 𝑡𝛼 2 for the following level of confidence

n Level of Confidence 𝑡𝛼
2
8 99
17 95
6 90

2. Find 𝑝 and 𝑞 given X and n

n X 𝑝 𝑞
100 45
240 54

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DEEPEN ILOILO CHAPTER

3. The mean scores of a random sample 17 students who took

special test is 83.5 with an sd of 4.1. The samples came from an
approximately normal population, find the point and interval
estimates of the population mean adopting a 90% confidence level.

4. The mean age 40 volunteers in a community project is 25. 7 years

with an sd of 2 years. The samples came from an approximately
normal population, find the point and interval estimates of the
population mean adopting a 99% confidence level.

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DEEPEN ILOILO CHAPTER

5. A total of 200 Grade 11 students who have access to internet

services were asked if they play games on line before coming to
class, and 86% said yes. Find the point and interval estimates of
the population of students who play games on line before
coming to class adopting a 99% confidence level.

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 TRANSFER ILOILO CHAPTER

1. Find 𝑡𝛼 2 for the following level of confidence

Level of Confidence
n 95% 90%
𝑡𝛼 𝑡𝛼
2 2
16
19
20
25

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TRANSFER ILOILO CHAPTER

2. Find 𝑝 and 𝑞 given X and n

n X 𝑝 𝑞
100 28
240 45
250 52

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 TRANSFER ILOILO CHAPTER

3.Workers at Super Toy, Inc. took a random sample of 800 of a

particular plastic toy and found that 40 of them were defective.
What is the 95% CI for p, the true proportion of defective of that
particular toys , based on this sample?
a) (37.26, 42.74) b) (.035, .065)
c) (.047, .053) d) (.015, .085)

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 TRANSFER ILOILO CHAPTER

4. The method used to calculate the confidence interval in the

previous question assumes which one of the following?
a) The sample mean equals the population mean.
b) The sample standard deviation does not depend on the sample
drawn.
c) The population has an approximately normal distribution.
d) The degrees of freedom df ≥ 30.

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 TRANSFER ILOILO CHAPTER

5 .The best point estimate of the population mean is the

a) sample mean b) sample median
b) sample mode d) sample mid range

6. What should be the value of z used in a 95% confidence

interval?
a) 2.70 b) 1.40 c) 1.81 d) 1.96

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 TRANSFER ILOILO CHAPTER

7. Suppose that we wanted to estimate the true average number of

eggs a queen bee lays with 95% confidence. The margin of error
we are willing to accept is 0.5. Suppose we also know that s is
about 10%. What sample size should we use?

a) 1536 b) 1537
c) 2653 d) 2650

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 TRANSFER ILOILO CHAPTER

8. A random sample of married people were asked "Would you

remarry your spouse if you were given the opportunity for a
second time?"; Of the 150 people surveyed, 127 of them said that
they would do so. Find a 95% confidence interval for the
proportion of married people who would remarry their spouse.

a) 0.847 ± 0.002 b) 0.847 ± 0.029

c) 0.847 ± 0.048 d) 0.8 47 ± 0.058

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 TRANSFER ILOILO CHAPTER

9. Suppose we are interested in finding a 95% confidence interval

for the proportion p of USA SHS students who are from the
private JHS. We take a random sample of 20 students, and we find
that 17 of them are from private JHS . Which of the following is
the small-sample confidence interval for p, using 95% confidence?

a) (.694, 1.000) b) (.629, .954)

c) (.850, .930) d) (.688, 1.000)

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 TRANSFER ILOILO CHAPTER

10. If the sample size is less than 30 and population standard

deviation is unknown what tool should be used to estimate
population mean

a) binomial b) z test
c) t test d) chi square

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 TRANSFER ILOILO CHAPTER

11. An internet café owner found out that 100 of his customers
spend an average of 15 hours a week searching for information
related to their studies with an sd of 4 hrs a week. Find the
point and interval estimate for the average number of hours
spent by students in reaching for information related to their
studies using 90% confidence interval.

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 TRANSFER ILOILO CHAPTER

12.Estimate the population proportions for each of the following

data:
a. In a plant box consisting of 120 seedlings, 80 seedlings were
treated with growth enhancer. Estimate p and q.
b. In a survey of 80 children, 48 like to watch horror films. Find p
and q, where p is the population of children who like to watch
horror films.

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TRANSFER ILOILO CHAPTER

13. A certain barangay embarked on a QUIT SMOKING program

among the constituents. A survey was made among a sample of
200 smoking individuals of the village asking who would join the
program. 118 said they would join the program. What are the
values of 𝑝 and 𝑞 ?

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TRANSFER ILOILO CHAPTER

14. For particular school year, a group of researchers wanted to

know the proportion of the students who are enrolled in STEM
strand in Senior high Schools in Iloilo. They randomly picked
schools and data showed of total 4562, there were 4286 enrolled
in STEM. Find the point and interval estimates of the population
students who are enrolled in STEM strand in Senior high Schools
in Iloilo using 95% level of confidence.

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TRANSFER ILOILO CHAPTER

15. A florist wants to estimate the average retail value of the best
selling flower in his inventory. A random sample of 20 flowers
indicates a mean of P30 and an sd of P 3 . What is 95% confidence
interval of the average value of his best selling flower?

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References ILOILO CHAPTER

Introduction to Statistics , 3rd ed. by Ronald E. Walpole

Statistics Teaching Guide, Prof. Rhodora A. Cartagena

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