Macro Chapter4 The Monetary Sustem
Macro Chapter4 The Monetary Sustem
There have been three great inventions since the beginning of time: fire, the wheel, and
central banking.
— Will Rogers
Much of this book is aimed at explaining the effects and proper role
of monetary and fiscal policy. This chapter begins our analysis of
monetary policy. We address three related questions. First, what is
money? Second, what is the role of a nation’s banking system in
determining the amount of money in the economy? Third, how does
a nation’s central bank influence the banking system and the money
supply?
Fiat money is the norm in most economies today, but many societies
in the past have used a commodity with some intrinsic value for
money. This type of money is called commodity money. The most
widespread example is gold. When people use gold as money (or use
paper money redeemable for gold), the economy is said to be on a
gold standard. Gold is a form of commodity money because it can
be used for various purposes — jewelry, dental fillings, and so on —
as well as for transactions. The gold standard was common
throughout the world during the late nineteenth century.
CASE STUDY
Money in a POW Camp
An unusual form of commodity money developed in some Nazi prisoner of war (POW) camps
during World War II. The Red Cross supplied the prisoners with various goods — food,
clothing, cigarettes, and so on. Yet these rations were allocated without close attention to
personal preferences, so the allocations were often inefficient. One prisoner might have
preferred chocolate, while another might have preferred cheese, and a third might have
wanted a new shirt. The differing tastes and endowments of the prisoners led them to trade
with one another.
Barter was an inconvenient way to allocate these resources, however, because it required
the double coincidence of wants. In other words, a barter system was not the easiest way to
ensure that each prisoner received the goods he valued most. Even the limited economy of
the POW camp needed money to facilitate exchange.
Eventually, cigarettes became the established “currency” in which prices were quoted and
with which trades were made. A shirt, for example, cost about 80 cigarettes. Services were
also quoted in cigarettes: Some prisoners offered to do other prisoners’ laundry for two
cigarettes per garment. Even nonsmokers were happy to accept cigarettes in exchange,
knowing they could trade the cigarettes in the future for some good they did enjoy. Within
the POW camp the cigarette became the store of value, the unit of account, and the medium
of exchange.1
The next step is for the government to accept gold from the public in
exchange for gold certificates — pieces of paper that can be
redeemed for a certain quantity of gold. If people believe the
government’s promise to redeem the paper bills for gold, the bills
are just as valuable as the gold itself. In addition, because the bills
are lighter than gold (and gold coins), they are easier to use in
transactions. Eventually, no one carries gold around at all, and these
gold-backed government bills become the monetary standard.
Finally, the gold backing becomes irrelevant. If no one ever bothers
to redeem the bills for gold, no one cares if the option is abandoned.
As long as everyone accepts the paper bills in exchange, the bills will
have value and serve as money. Thus, the system of commodity
money evolves into a system of fiat money. In the end, the use of
money in exchange is a social convention: Everyone values fiat
money because they expect everyone else to value it.
CASE STUDY
Money and Social Conventions on the Islands of Yap
The economy of Yap, a group of small islands in the Pacific, once had a type of money that
was something between commodity and fiat money. The traditional medium of exchange in
Yap was fei, stone wheels up to 12 feet in diameter. These stones had holes in the center so
that they could be carried on poles and used for exchange.
Large stone wheels are not a convenient form of money. The stones were heavy, so it took
substantial effort for a new owner to take his fei home after completing a transaction. The
monetary system facilitated exchange, but it did so at great cost.
Eventually, it became common practice for the new owner of the fei not to bother taking
physical possession of the stone. Instead, the new owner accepted a claim to the fei without
moving it. In future bargains, he traded this claim for goods that he wanted. Having physical
possession of the stone became less important than having legal claim to it.
This practice was put to a test when a valuable stone was lost at sea during a storm. Because
the owner lost his money by accident rather than through negligence, everyone agreed that
his claim to the fei remained valid. Generations later, when no one alive had ever seen this
stone, the claim to this fei was still valued in exchange.
Even today, stone money remains valued on the Yap islands. But it is not the medium of
exchange used for routine transactions. For that purpose, the 11,000 residents of Yap use
something more prosaic: the U.S. dollar.2
FYI
Bitcoin: The Strange Case of a Digital Money
In 2009, the world was introduced to a new and unusual asset, called bitcoin. Conceived by
an anonymous computer expert (or group of experts) who goes by the name Satoshi
Nakamoto, bitcoin is intended to be a form of money that exists only in electronic form.
Individuals originally obtain bitcoins by using computers to solve complex mathematical
problems. The bitcoin protocol is designed to limit the number of bitcoins that can ever be
“mined” in this way to 21 million units (though experts disagree whether the number of
bitcoins is truly limited). After the bitcoins are created, they can be used in exchange. They
can be bought and sold for U.S. dollars and other currencies on organized bitcoin
exchanges, where the exchange rate is set by supply and demand. You can use bitcoins to
buy things from any vendor who is willing to accept them.
As a form of money, bitcoins are neither commodity money nor fiat money. Unlike
commodity money, they have no intrinsic value. You can’t use bitcoins for anything other
than exchange. Unlike fiat money, they are not created by government decree. Indeed, many
fans of bitcoin embrace the fact that this electronic cash exists apart from government.
(Some users of it are engaged in illicit transactions such as the drug trade and, therefore,
appreciate the anonymity that bitcoin transactions offer.) Bitcoins have value only to the
extent that people accept the social convention of taking them in exchange. From this
perspective, the modern bitcoin resembles the primitive money of Yap.
Throughout its brief history, the value of a bitcoin, as measured by its price in U.S. dollars,
has fluctuated wildly. Throughout 2010, the price of a bitcoin ranged from 5 cents to 39
cents. In 2011 the price rose to above $1, and in 2013 it briefly rose above $1,000 before
falling below $500 in 2014. Over the next few years, it skyrocketed, reaching more than
$19,000 in 2017, and then plummeted below $4,000 in the following year. Gold is often
considered a risky asset, but the day-to-day volatility of bitcoin prices has been several
times the volatility of gold prices.
Advocates of bitcoin see it as the money of the future. Another possibility, however, is that it
is a speculative fad that will eventually run its course.3
The main way in which the Fed has traditionally controlled the
supply of money is through open-market operations — the
purchase and sale of government bonds. When the Fed wants to
increase the money supply, it uses dollars to buy government bonds
from the public. Because these dollars leave the Fed and enter the
hands of the public, the purchase increases the quantity of money in
circulation. Conversely, when the Fed wants to decrease the money
supply, it sells some government bonds from its own portfolio. This
open-market sale of bonds takes some dollars out of the hands of the
public and, thus, decreases the quantity of money in circulation.
(Later in the chapter, we explore in more detail how the Fed controls
the supply of money.)
C Currency $ 1,745
FYI
How Do Credit Cards and Debit Cards Fit into the Monetary
System?
Many people use credit or debit cards to make purchases. Because money is the medium of
exchange, one might naturally wonder how these cards fit into the measurement and
analysis of money.
Let’s start with credit cards. One might guess that credit cards are part of the economy’s
stock of money. In fact, however, measures of the money stock do not take credit cards into
account because credit cards are not really a method of payment but a method of deferring
payment. When you buy an item with a credit card, the bank that issued the card pays the
store what it is due. Later, you repay the bank. When the time comes to pay your credit card
bill, you will likely do so by transferring funds from your checking account, either
electronically or by writing a check. The balance in this checking account is part of the
economy’s stock of money.
The story is different with debit cards, which automatically withdraw funds from a bank
account to pay for items bought. Rather than allowing users to postpone payment for their
purchases, a debit card gives users immediate access to deposits in their bank accounts.
Using a debit card is like writing a check. The account balances that lie behind debit cards
are included in measures of the quantity of money.
Even though credit cards are not a form of money, they are still important for analyzing the
monetary system. Because people with credit cards can pay many of their bills all at once at
the end of the month, rather than sporadically as they make purchases, they may hold less
money on average than people without credit cards. Thus, the increased popularity of credit
cards may reduce the amount of money that people choose to hold. In other words, credit
cards are not part of the supply of money, but they may affect the demand for money.
4-2 The Role of Banks in the
Monetary System
Earlier, we introduced the concept of “money supply” in a highly
simplified manner. We defined the quantity of money as the number
of dollars held by the public, and we assumed that the Federal
Reserve controls the money supply by changing the number of
dollars in circulation through open-market operations. This
explanation was a good starting point for understanding what
determines the supply of money, but it is incomplete because it
omits the role of the banking system in this process.
In this section, we see that the money supply is determined not only
by Fed policy but also by the behavior of households (which hold
money) and banks (in which money is held). We begin by recalling
that the money supply includes both currency in the hands of the
public and deposits (such as checking account balances) at banks
that households can use on demand for transactions. If M denotes
the money supply, C currency, and D demand deposits, we can write
M = C + D.
To understand the money supply, we must understand the
interaction between currency and demand deposits and how the
banking system, together with Fed policy, influences these two
components of the money supply.
100-Percent-Reserve Banking
Imagine a world without banks. In such a world, all money takes the
form of currency, and the quantity of money is simply the amount of
currency that the public holds. For this discussion, suppose that
there is $1,000 of currency in the economy.
The deposits that banks have received but have not lent out are
called reserves. Some reserves are held in the vaults of local banks
throughout the country, but most are held at a central bank, such as
the Federal Reserve. In our hypothetical economy, all deposits are
held as reserves: Banks simply accept deposits, place the money in
reserve, and leave the money there until the depositor makes a
withdrawal or writes a check against the balance. This system is
called 100-percent-reserve banking.
Assets Liabilities
The bank’s assets are the $1,000 it holds as reserves; the bank’s
liabilities are the $1,000 it owes to depositors. Unlike banks in our
economy, this bank is not making loans, so it will not earn profit
from its assets. The bank presumably charges depositors a small fee
to cover its costs.
Fractional-Reserve Banking
Now imagine that banks start lending out some of their deposits —
for example, to families buying houses or to firms investing in new
plants and equipment. The advantage to banks is that they can
charge interest on the loans. The banks must keep some reserves on
hand so that reserves are available whenever depositors want to
make withdrawals. But as long as the amount of new deposits
approximately equals the amount of withdrawals, a bank need not
keep all its deposits in reserve. Thus, bankers have an incentive to
lend. When they do so, we have fractional-reserve banking, a
system under which banks keep only a fraction of their deposits in
reserve.
Assets Liabilities
Loans $800
The creation of money does not stop with Firstbank. If the borrower
deposits the $800 in another bank (or if the borrower uses the $800
to pay someone who then deposits it), the process of money creation
continues. Here is the balance sheet of Secondbank:
Assets Liabilities
Loans $640
Assets Liabilities
Loans $512
The process goes on and on. With each deposit and loan, more
money is created.
This process of money creation can continue forever, but it does not
create an infinite amount of money. Letting rr denote the reserve–
deposit ratio, the amount of money that the initial $1,000 creates is
2
Secondbank Lending = (1 − rr) × $1,000
3
Thirdbank Lending = (1 − rr) × $1,000
2 3
Total Money Supply = [1 + (1 − rr) +(1 − rr) + (1 − rr) + . . .
= (1/rr) × $1,000.
Here is what a more realistic balance sheet for a bank would look
like:
The bank obtains resources from its owners who provide capital,
from customers by taking in deposits, and from investors by issuing
debt. It uses these resources in three ways. Some funds are held as
reserves; some are used to make bank loans; and some are used to
buy financial securities, such as government or corporate bonds.
The bank allocates its resources among these asset classes,
considering the risk and return that each offers and any regulations
that restrict its choices. The reserves, loans, and securities on the
left side of the balance sheet must equal, in total, the deposits, debt,
and capital on the right side of the balance sheet. This equality
results from the fact that the value of the owners’ equity is, by
definition, the value of the bank’s assets (reserves, loans, and
securities) minus the value of its liabilities (deposits and debt).
Bank regulators require that banks hold sufficient capital. The goal
of a capital requirement is to ensure that banks will be able to pay
off their depositors and other creditors. The amount of capital
required depends on the kind of assets a bank holds. If the bank
holds safe assets such as government bonds, regulators require less
capital than if the bank holds risky assets such as loans to borrowers
whose credit is of dubious quality.
The arcane issues of bank capital and leverage are usually left to
bankers, regulators, and financial experts, but they became
prominent topics of public debate during and after the financial
crisis of 2008–2009. During this period, declining house prices
caused many banks and other financial institutions to incur losses
on mortgage-backed securities. Because of leverage, the losses to
bank capital were proportionately much larger than the losses to
bank assets. Some institutions became insolvent. These events had
repercussions not only within the financial system but throughout
the economy. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, legislative and
regulatory changes imposed higher and increasingly complex
capital requirements for many banks with the goal of reducing the
likelihood of future crises.5
For now, we can put aside the issues of bank capital and leverage.
But they will resurface when we discuss financial crises in Chapters
13 and 19.
4-3 How Central Banks Influence
the Money Supply
Having seen what money is and how the banking system affects the
amount of money in the economy, we are ready to examine how the
central bank influences the banking system and the money supply.
This influence is the essence of monetary policy.
We begin with the definitions of the money supply and the monetary
base:
M = C + D,
B = C + R.
The first equation states that the money supply is the sum of
currency and demand deposits. The second equation states that the
monetary base is the sum of currency and bank reserves. To solve
for the money supply as a function of the three exogenous variables
(B, rr, and cr), we divide the first equation by the second to obtain
M C + D
= .
B C + R
We then divide both the top and bottom of the expression on the
right by D:
M C/D + 1
= .
B C/D + R/D
Note that C/D is the currency–deposit ratio cr and that R/D is the
reserve–deposit ratio rr. Making these substitutions, and bringing
the B from the left to the right side of the equation, we obtain
cr + 1
M = × B.
cr + rr
This equation shows how the money supply depends on the three
exogenous variables.
M = m × B.
0.8 + 1
m = = 2.0,
0.8 + 0.1
We can now see how changes in the three exogenous variables — the
monetary base, the reserve–deposit ratio, and the currency–deposit
ratio — cause the money supply to change:
With this model in mind, we can discuss the ways in which the Fed
influences the money supply.
The Fed can also alter the monetary base by lending reserves to
banks. Banks borrow from the Fed when they think they do not have
enough reserves on hand, either to satisfy bank regulations, meet
depositor withdrawals, make new loans, or satisfy some other
business requirement. When the Fed lends to a bank that is having
trouble obtaining funds from elsewhere, it is said to act as the lender
of last resort.
Banks can borrow from the Fed in various ways. Traditionally, banks
have borrowed at the Fed’s so-called discount window. The discount
rate is the interest rate that the Fed charges on these loans. The
lower the discount rate, the cheaper are borrowed reserves, and the
more banks borrow at the Fed’s discount window. Hence, a
reduction in the discount rate raises the monetary base and the
money supply.
During the financial crisis of 2008–2009, distressed banks were
reluctant to borrow from the discount window for fear that doing so
would signal weakness to the public. In response, the Federal
Reserve set up several new mechanisms through which banks could
borrow. For example, under the Term Auction Facility, the Fed set a
quantity of funds it wanted to lend to banks, and eligible banks then
bid to borrow those funds. The loans went to the highest eligible
bidders — that is, to the banks that had acceptable collateral and
offered to pay the highest interest rate. Unlike at the discount
window, where the Fed sets the price of a loan and the banks
determine the quantity of borrowing, at the Term Auction Facility
the Fed set the quantity of borrowing, and a competitive bidding
process among banks determined the price. The last Term Auction
Facility auction was conducted in 2010, but this policy illustrates that
the Federal Reserve has various ways to alter the monetary base and
the money supply.
CASE STUDY
Quantitative Easing and the Exploding Monetary Base
Figure 4-1 shows the monetary base from 1960 to 2020. You can see that something
extraordinary happened after 2007. From 1960 to 2007 the monetary base grew gradually
over time. But then from 2007 to 2014 it spiked up substantially, increasing about fivefold
over just a few years.
FIGURE 4-1
The Monetary Base The monetary base has historically grown relatively smoothly over
time, but from 2007 to 2014 it increased approximately fivefold. The huge expansion in
the monetary base, however, was not accompanied by similar increases in M1 and M2.
This huge increase in the monetary base is attributable to actions the Federal Reserve took
during the financial crisis and economic downturn of this period. With the financial markets
in turmoil, the Fed responded with historic vigor. It began by buying large quantities of
mortgage-backed securities. Its goal was to restore order to the mortgage market so that
would-be homeowners could borrow. Later, the Fed pursued a policy of buying long-term
government bonds to push up their prices and to push down long-term interest rates. This
policy, called quantitative easing, was a kind of open-market operation. But rather than buy
short-term Treasury bills, as the Fed normally does in an open-market operation, it bought
longer-term and somewhat riskier securities. These open-market purchases led to a
substantial increase in the monetary base.
The huge expansion in the monetary base, however, did not lead to a similar increase in
broader measures of the money supply. While the monetary base increased about 400
percent from 2007 to 2014, M1 increased by only 100 percent and M2 by only 55 percent.
These figures show that the tremendous expansion in the monetary base was accompanied
by a large decline in the money multiplier. Why did this decline occur?
The model of the money supply presented earlier in this chapter shows that a key
determinant of the money multiplier is the reserve ratio rr. From 2007 to 2014, the reserve
ratio increased substantially because banks chose to hold substantial quantities of excess
reserves. That is, rather than make loans, the banks kept much of their available funds in
reserve. (Excess reserves rose from about $1.5 billion in 2007 to about $2.5 trillion in 2014.)
This decision prevented the normal process of money creation that occurs in a system of
fractional-reserve banking.
Why did banks choose to hold so much in excess reserves? Part of the reason is that banks
had made many bad loans leading up to the financial crisis; when this fact became
apparent, bankers tried to tighten their credit standards and make loans only to those they
were confident could repay. In addition, interest rates fell to such low levels that making
loans was not as profitable as it had been. Banks did not lose much by leaving their financial
resources idle as excess reserves.
Although the explosion in the monetary base did not lead to a similar explosion in the
money supply, some observers feared that it still might. As the economy recovered from the
downturn and interest rates rose to normal levels, they argued, banks could reduce their
holdings of excess reserves by making loans. The money supply would start growing —
perhaps too quickly.
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve, however, were aware of this potential problem and
were ready to handle it. From 2015 to 2017, the Fed increased the interest rate it paid on
reserves from 0.25 to 1.50 percent. A higher interest rate on reserves makes holding reserves
more profitable for banks, thereby discouraging bank lending and keeping the money
multiplier low.6
CASE STUDY
Bank Failures and the Money Supply in the 1930s
Between August 1929 and March 1933, the money supply fell 28 percent. As we will discuss
in Chapter 13, some economists believe that this large decline in the money supply was the
main cause of the Great Depression of the 1930s, when unemployment reached
unprecedented levels, prices fell precipitously, and economic hardship was widespread. In
light of this hypothesis, one is drawn to ask why the money supply fell so dramatically.
The three variables that determine the money supply — the monetary base, the reserve–
deposit ratio, and the currency–deposit ratio — are shown in Table 4-2 for 1929 and 1933.
You can see that the fall in the money supply cannot be attributed to a fall in the monetary
base: In fact, the monetary base rose 18 percent over this period. Instead, the money supply
fell because the money multiplier fell 38 percent. The money multiplier fell because the
currency–deposit and reserve–deposit ratios both rose substantially.
TABLE 4-2 The Money Supply and Its Determinants: 1929 and
1933
August 1929 March 1933
Data from: Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States,
1867–1960 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1963), Appendix A.
Most economists attribute the fall in the money multiplier to the large number of bank
failures in the early 1930s. From 1930 to 1933, more than 9,000 banks suspended operations,
and many of them defaulted on their depositors. The bank failures caused the money supply
to fall by altering the behavior of both depositors and bankers.
Bank failures raised the currency–deposit ratio by reducing public confidence in the banking
system. People feared that bank failures would continue, and they began to view currency
as a more desirable form of money than demand deposits. When they withdrew their
deposits, they drained the banks of reserves. The process of money creation reversed itself,
as banks responded to lower reserves by reducing their outstanding balance of loans.
In addition, the bank failures raised the reserve–deposit ratio by making bankers more
cautious. Having just observed many bank runs, bankers became apprehensive about
operating with a small amount of reserves. They therefore increased their holdings of
reserves to well above the legal minimum. Just as households responded to the banking
crisis by holding more currency relative to deposits, bankers responded by holding more
reserves relative to loans. Together these changes caused a large fall in the money
multiplier.
Although it is easy to explain why the money supply fell, it is more difficult to decide whether
to blame the Federal Reserve. One might argue that the monetary base did not fall, so the
Fed should not be blamed. Critics of Fed policy during this period make two
counterarguments. First, they claim that the Fed should have taken a more vigorous role in
preventing bank failures by acting as a lender of last resort when banks needed cash during
bank runs. Doing so would have helped maintain confidence in the banking system and
prevented the large fall in the money multiplier. Second, they point out that the Fed could
have responded to the fall in the money multiplier by increasing the monetary base even
more than it did. Either of these actions would likely have prevented such a large fall in the
money supply and reduced the severity of the Great Depression.
Since the 1930s, many policies have been enacted that make such a large and sudden fall in
the money supply less likely today. Most importantly, the system of federal deposit
insurance protects depositors when a bank fails. This policy is designed to maintain public
confidence in the banking system and thus prevents large swings in the currency–deposit
ratio. Deposit insurance has a cost: In the late 1980s and early 1990s, for example, the
federal government incurred the large expense of bailing out many insolvent savings-and-
loan institutions. Yet deposit insurance helps stabilize the banking system and the money
supply. That is why, during the financial crisis of 2008–2009, the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation raised the amount guaranteed from $100,000 to $250,000 per depositor.
4-4 Conclusion
You should now understand what money is and how central banks
affect its supply. Yet this accomplishment, valuable as it is, is only
the first step toward understanding monetary policy. The next and
more interesting step is to see how changes in the money supply
influence the economy. We begin our study of that question in the
next chapter. As we examine the effects of monetary policy, we can
start to appreciate what central bankers can do to improve the
functioning of the economy and, just as important, what they cannot
do. But be forewarned: You will have to wait until the end of the
book to see all the pieces of the puzzle fall into place.
QUICK QUIZ
1. Which of the following is not part of the money supply?
a. the metal coins in your pocket
b. the paper currency in your wallet
c. the balances in your retirement account
d. the funds in your checking account
2. In a system of fractional-reserve banking, bank lending
increases the
a. monetary base.
b. money supply.
c. amount of excess reserves.
d. economy’s net worth.
3. If a central bank wants to increase the money supply, it can
bonds in open-market operations or
reserve requirements.
a. buy, increase
b. buy, decrease
c. sell, increase
d. sell, decrease
4. When the Federal Reserve reduces the interest rate it pays
on reserves, this tends to the money
multiplier and the money supply.
a. increase, increase
b. increase, decrease
c. decrease, increase
d. decrease, decrease
5. Because of leverage, a 5 percent decline in the value of a
bank’s assets causes the value of the bank’s
to fall by than 5 percent.
a. capital, more
b. capital, less
c. deposits, more
d. deposits, less
6. Suppose that a change in transaction technology reduces
the amount of currency people want to hold relative to
demand deposits. If the Fed does nothing, the money
supply tends to . But the Fed can hold the
money supply constant by bonds in open-
market operations.
a. increase, buying
b. increase, selling
c. decrease, buying
d. decrease, selling
KEY CONCEPTS
Money
Store of value
Unit of account
Medium of exchange
Fiat money
Commodity money
Gold standard
Money supply
Monetary policy
Central bank
Federal Reserve
Open-market operations
Currency
Demand deposits
Reserves
100-percent-reserve banking
Balance sheet
Fractional-reserve banking
Financial intermediation
Bank capital
Leverage
Capital requirement
Monetary base
Reserve–deposit ratio
Currency–deposit ratio
Money multiplier
Discount rate
Reserve requirements
Excess reserves
Interest on reserves
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