05) Inflation
05) Inflation
Disclaimer : This information has been presented for educational purposes only and
collected from various referred and online materials
INTRODUCTION
i. What is inflation?
ii. Causes of inflation?
iii. What are the measures of
inflation?
INFLATION
Examples:
• Bolivia, Peru, Brazil
• Germany after WWI
Types of Inflation
• On the basis of rate of inflation-Creeping, walking, running and
hyperinflation
• On the basis of cause-Demand-pull and cost-push inflation
• On the basis of degree of control-Over inflation and suppressed
inflation
INFLATION
• Monetary measures
• Fiscal measures
• Other measures
INTRODUCTION
• In the two extreme situations of inflation and deflation, countries also experience
disinflation and reflation.
• Disinflation is a situation where an economy operates at above the full employment level of
output, price level keep on increasing, but the rate of increase in price level keep on
declining.
• On the other hand, reflation or partial inflation refers to a situation when an increase in
demand at below full employment level raises not only the price level, but also the volume
of output in the system
INTRODUCTION
reflation.
• Inflation is a persistent and substantial rise in the general level of prices
after full employment level of output.
• The prices of different commodities may vary at different rates and in
different directions.
INTRODUCTION
INFLATION
INTRODUCTION
• When consumers expect prices to rise, they spend now, boosting
economic growth.
• An important aspect of keeping a good inflation rate is managing
expectations of future inflation.
• Inflation is good when it is mild. There are two situations where this
INFLATION
Creeping Inflation:
• When the rise in prices is very slow like that of a snail or creeper, it is called
creeping inflation.
• In terms of speed, a sustained rise in prices of annual increase of less than 3
INFLATION
Running Inflation:
• When prices rise rapidly like the running of a horse at a rate or speed
of 10 to 20 percent per annum, it is called running inflation.
• Such inflation affects the poor and middle classes adversely.
INFLATION
Hyperinflation:
• When prices rise very fast at double or triple digit rates from more
than 20 to 100 percent per annum or more, it is usually called
runaway or galloping inflation.
INTRODUCTION
INFLATION
INTRODUCTION
On the Basis of COVERAGE
Headline Inflation:
• Headline inflation is the total inflation in an economy.
• The headline inflation figure includes inflation in a
basket of goods that includes commodities like food
and energy.
INFLATION
Core Inflation:
• Core inflation is the change in the costs of goods and
services but does not include those from the food and
energy sectors.
• Food and energy prices are exempt from this
calculation because their prices can be too volatile or
fluctuate in short term.
• Core inflation is important because it's used to
determine the impact of rising prices on consumer
income.
INTRODUCTION
INFLATION
INTRODUCTION
• Suppressed Inflation:
• The government imposes physical and monetary controls to check open inflation, it is
known as repressed or suppressed inflation.
INFLATION
• The market mechanism is not allowed to function normally by the use of licensing, price
controls and rationing in order to suppress extensive rise in prices.
• Open Inflation:
• Inflation is open when “markets for goods or factors of production are allowed to function
freely, setting prices of goods and factors without normal interference by the authorities.
• Thus open inflation is the result of the uninterrupted operation of the market mechanism.
Stagflation
• Stagflation is a new term which has been added to economic literature
in the 1970s.
• Stagflation is a situation when recession is accompanied by a high rate
of inflation.
• The principal cause of this phenomenon has been excessive demand in
INFLATION
• Where P1 and P0 indicate the price of the commodity in the current period and base period
respectively. The simple aggregative price index from this given table is
INFLATION
Index Number
• Do you know that such an index is of limited use? The reason is that the units of measurement of prices of various
commodities are not the same. It is unweighted, because the relative importance of the items has not been properly reflected.
• The formula for a weighted aggregative price index is
• An index number becomes a weighted index when the relative importance of items is taken care of. This method uses the base
period quantities as weights. A weighted aggregative price index using base period quantities as weights, is also known as
Laspeyre’s price index. It provides an explanation to the question that if the expenditure on base period basket of
INFLATION
commodities was Rs 100, how much should be the expenditure in the current period on the same basket of
commodities?
• Here weights are quantity weights. To construct a weighted aggregative index, a well-specified basket of commodities is taken
and its worth each year is calculated.
• It uses the current period quantities as weights. A weighted aggregative price index using current period
quantities as weights is known as Paasche’s price index.
• It helps in answering the question that, if the current period basket of commodities was consumed in the
base period and if we were spending Rs 100 on it, how much should be the expenditure in current period
on the same basket of commodities.
• Paasche’s price index of 132.1 is interpreted as a price rise of 32.1 per cent. Using current period weights, the
price is said to have risen by 32.1 per cent.
INTRODUCTION
• Laspeyre price index is based on the assumption that the quantities consumed in the
base year and current year are same, which may not always be true, it may changes
due to changes in habits.
• Due to this, it is expected to have an upward bias.
• While the Paasche’s index is expected to have a downward bias,
INFLATION
INFLATION
INTRODUCTION
• WPI-It captures the average movement of wholesale prices of goods.
Wholesale price indexes (WPIs) are reported monthly in order to show
the average price changes of goods. The monthly WPI number shows
the average price changes of goods usually expressed in ratios or
percentages. Measure inflation at the producer level.
INFLATION
19, 1939 as the base and computation of the Index from January 10,
1942.
• With regular publication of WPI since 1947, the index continued as a
weekly series till January 2012 and is thereafter being released as a
monthly series.
• WPI underwent several base revisions, usually decadal, and the present
base (2004-05) series is available since April 2004.
INTRODUCTION
• The history of CPI in India is also very old.
• The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) is being compiled
since October 1946.
• Though the coverage of CPI-IW was limited to industrial workers in three
sectors under the 1960 series, the coverage was extended to seven sectors
with effect from 1982.
INFLATION
• The Government also compiled another series of consumer price indices for
agricultural labourers (CPI-AL) since September 1964.
• The series was split into separate indices for agricultural labourers and rural
labourers (CPI-RL) from November 1995.
• The present base (1986-87 = 100) uses consumer expenditure data collected
in the 38th Round of National Sample Survey8 (NSS), 1983, for deriving
weighting diagrams – separately for agricultural labourers and rural labourers.
INTRODUCTION
• There exist differences between CPI-combined and WPI in terms of
aggregation of the two indices from item level to consolidated level
also.
• WPI is constructed using a national-level weighting diagram while
CPI-combined weights are based on consumer expenditure surveys.
INFLATION
2. Rising real wages- For example, unions bargaining for higher wage rates.
3. Exchange rate- A devaluation in the exchange rate of the local currency
affects the economy as it leads to expensive imports and reduced prices of
exports. Hence, consumers will be more inclined to buy local products
and would avoid imported products, thereby benefitting local industries.
The improved demand will increase the prices of locally made products
leading to a new equilibrium.
INTRODUCTION
Demand pull inflation may increase the demand for factors of production,
leading to an increase in the prices of factors of production. An increase
INFLATION
• Salaried Persons
• Wage Earners
• Business community
• Holders of fixed interest security vs shareholders
• Fixed income earning class vs profiteers
• Farmers
• Government and the general public
INTRODUCTION
➢Inflation alters the relative prices and thus the profitability of different business
organisations is affected differently.
➢According to Keynes moderate or creeping inflation have favourable effect on
production, particularly when there unemployed resources in the country.
➢Rising prices increase the profit expectations of the entrepreneurs, they are induced
to step up investment as a result employment, and output will increase.
INTRODUCTION
Different policy measures are used to control inflation depending upon its
source, cause and intensity.
The measures aimed at controlling inflation tries to bridge the gap
between aggregate demand for and the aggregate supply of different
goods and services.
INFLATION
Fiscal Measures
Expansionary or contractionary fiscal policies are applied to combat inflation
[Link] expenditure- It is one of the important component of aggregate demand.
Restrictive fiscal policy such as, reduction in subsidies, wages and other admin expenses and
postponement of new projects etc. reduces the money income of the public.
INFLATION
While exercising this instrument, the government must keep the non-essential expenditure to the
minimum rather than the development expenditure otherwise not only the demand side but also the
productivity capacity is affected adversely.
[Link]- reduces the purchasing power of the people
[Link] Borrowing and Debt- Borrowing by the government results in a transfer of
funds from the private sector to the public sector.
INTRODUCTION
MONETARY MEASURES
Two types of techniques, i.e., quantitative and qualitative credit controls have
been used by the central banks world-wide to achieve their objective of
managing flow of credit in the economy.
INFLATION
Bank rates is the rate at which the central bank lends money to the commercial
banks, increase in bank rate pushes up the lending rates and makes investment
less attractive/discourages borrowings.
It is the rate at which the central bank lends money to the commercial banks.
An increase in the bank rate leads to an increase in the interest rate charged by
the commercial banks which in turn discourages borrowing by businessmen
and consumers.
5. Monetary Policy Instruments cont.…
Difference between repo rate and bank rate:
• There is a subtle difference between repo rate and bank rate.
Monetary Policy and Economic Environment
• Financial institutions can borrow from the RBI at the bank rate without
submission of any collateral.
• On the other hand repo rate is charged for re-purchase of securities issued by the
RBI.
• Further, bank rate is higher than repo rate.
• In India, the bank rate is an administered rate, set by the monetary authority, &
is not market determined.
• The bank rate acts as a signaling device and changes in it are aimed at reflecting
changes in the medium-term stance of the policy.
OMO
Central banks use contractionary monetary policy to reduce inflation.
They reduce the money supply by restricting the volume of money banks
can lend.
Quantitative Measures:
[Link] Market operations(OMO)-This consists of sale and purchase of
INFLATION
Govt. securities by the central bank from the open market (consisting of
financial institutions and other dealers in govt. securities) rather than
directly to and from the Govt.
To control inflation sales securities, to pay for these securities , the public
surrenders, the sale of govt securities by the central bank reduces the
money supply in circulations and hence demand for goods and services.
It directly affect the money supply. Adjust rupee liquidity condition.
INTRODUCTION
Central banks use contractionary monetary policy to reduce inflation.
They reduce the money supply by restricting the volume of money banks
can lend.
Quantitative Measures:
[Link] reserve requirements-CRR and SLR –
INFLATION
CRR refers to the cash which banks have to maintain with the RBI as a
certain percentage of their demand and time liabilities.
It reduces availability of funds with the banks for the purpose of further
lending.
A reduction in credit is expected to reduce investment and consumption
expenditure and thereby, the aggregate demand and inflation.
CRR regulates the flow of money in the economy whereas SLR ensures the
solvency of the banks.
INTRODUCTION
The essence of this method is that a bank while advancing credit against a security
does not lend the full amount (full value of security) but less.
During inflationary boom businessmen and speculators try to get credit by
pledging gold or securities to the bank.
A bank does not advance loan equal to the value of the security but less, e.g., a
commercial bank lends Rs. 800 against a security worth Rs. 1,000 the margin is
Rs. 200 or 20 per cent.
Selective Control Measures
➢To the extent business firms are able to find a pattern in the
INFLATION
Disclaimer : This information has been presented for educational purposes only and
collected from various referred and online materials. Please use this material for
your study purpose only.