Module 5

ANALYSIS OF FOOD PRODUCTION AND POPULATION GROWTH

Federico O. Perez
I. Introduction
In general, there is a problem of overproduction and conspicuous consumption in the western countries.
On the contrary, in the developing countries, there is insufficient production resulting in food shortages and
hunger. Above all, poverty is very rampant that several families cannot even afford to have three meals a day.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (1989), food supply problems sometimes are
regional, with a surplus in one area and a shortage in another. Most often, the problem is one of distribution of
available food and purchasing power, rather than low production. In some cases, the problem is acute, but
there are instances that the problem is not yet acute and can only be discovered from a close scrutiny of
production and consumption trends.
It is common recommendation that it is better to consider production and consumption per caput than
overall production and consumption since the parameters can be entirely different. It has been emphasized
that the root cause of food shortage is population pressure rather than low production per se. By year 2000,
there will be one thousand million more mouths to feed than there are in 1990. To do so, food production will
have to increase by almost 40% (FAO,1989.)
There is considerable debate on whether the developing countries like the Philippines, will be able to feed
themselves in the years to come. It is relatively easy to forecast global food requirements until AD 2000, and
when projections of productions and consumption trends are combined, it is evident that there are a number of
countries expected to have a considerable deficit by 1990 and onwards (Beets, 1990).
A. General Objective
At the end of this module, the students must be able to relate food production with population growth.
B. Specific Objective
It is expected that after the discussion, the students can:
1. Project population growth rate and interact with the production rate of major cereals used as food
2. Calculate sufficiency level of a family based on consumption rate and per capita consumption
3. Predict the demand for food vis a vis population for a given period
4. Estimate the land requirement to support a family of five or a given community
Overview
This module will expose the students to various statistics of food demand and supply (production) that will lead
to the estimation of food requirement (or per capita) per individual. Also, the relationship of malnutrition, poverty
and land availability will be thoroughly discussed and scenario building for future outlook will be done.
Learning Contents
i. Population Growth and Food Requirements
 The Philippines has now an estimated 83.5M people (ADB, 2005), ranking 7 th as the most populous in Asia and
12th in the world (US Census Bureau, 2005).
 A government census completed in May 2000 showed that 76.49 M people now lived in the country, an increase
of 1.7M people annually or 4624 persons daily. In latter part of 1990’s, this figure represents an annual growth
rate of 2.36%.
 Population density rose to 235 people per sq. km. from 229 people per sq. km. in 1995. A government study
warned that the Philippines must drastically cut its population growth rate in order to escape the cycle of
perpetual poverty.
 The National Statistics and Census Board (2006) reported that agriculture showed a lackluster growth of only
1.8% from 4.2%. The sectors of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, which comprised 17.2% of the total gross
domestic products (GDP) contributed only 0.33% to the total GDP growth despite that it employs 33% or a third
of the total labor force.
Using estimates of Alexandratos (1988) for the year 2000, the cereal production and requirements of developing
countries is shown in Table 6.
Table 6. Cereal Production and Requirements of Developing Countries for 2000 AD
REGION DEMAND PRODUCTION NET BALANCE SELF-
(M tons) (M tons) (M tons) SUFFICIENCY
RATE
(%)
94 Developing 1247 1152 -95 92
Countries
Africa 100 83 -17 83
Asia (excl. China) 398 380 -18 96
Latin America 164 165 1 101
Low-income 784 770 -14 98
countries

The projected food deficits of selected developing countries, including the Philippines are shown in Table 7.
Table7. Projected food deficits of selected developing countries
COUNTRY ACTUAL 1975 PROJECTED 1995
Million Tons % of Consumption Million Tons % of Consumption
Philippines 0.3 4 1.4-1.7 11-13
India 1.4 1 17.6-21.9 10-12
Nigeria 0.4 2 17.1-20.5 35-39
Bangladesh 1.0 7 6.4-8.0 30-35
Indonesia 2.1 8 6.0-7.7 14-17
Egypt 3.7 35 4.9 32
Sahel Group 0.4 9 3.2-3.5 44-46
Ethiopia 0.1 2 2.1-2.3 26-28
Afghanistan - - 1.3-1.5 19-22
Haiti 0.3 24 0.7-0.8 35-38
Source: IFPRI, 1987
The most important question and the major issue now is whether or not there is a real potential to produce
enough. We know very well that the main factors governing this are land availability, its carrying capacity, availability of
inputs (especially water) and human elements.

ii. Poverty, Malnutrition and Land Availability

The most pressing economic and social issues in developing countries is reducing poverty especially in rural areas.
According to World Bank estimates around 780 M people live in absolute poverty. According to their report, the
incidence of poverty is highest in Africa and lowest in the Near East and North Africa (Table 8)
Table [Link] poverty by region (1975-1980)
Region Rural Population in Poverty (%)

Sub-Saharan Africa 65
Latin America 53
Asia 50
Near East and North Africa 32
Source: World Bank, 1986
Beets in his book “Introduction to Tropical Farming Systems” stressed that malnutrition is the main condition
associated with poverty. Accordingly, one of the major ways of solving the poverty problem is promoting agricultural
production. Accelerating per capita/production, simulated by technological and institutional and political change is
central to alleviating rural poverty in developing countries.
Another interesting question is whether there is still enough land available for expansion of tropical agricultural
production. The available estimates suggest that the world as a whole, and the developing countries in particular, have
not yet used half of their potential land resources (Crosson and Frederick, 1977). However, records show that in many
parts of the world especially in Asia, the best lands has long been occupied and only limited expansion is now possible.
Nevertheless, a set of consoling data show that there has been a considerable increase in the area under cultivation (Table
9) by about 10% in developing countries (Beets, 1990).
Table 9. Increase in areas under arable land and permanent crops during the 60s and 70s.
REGION AREAS IN ARABLE AND PERMANENT CROPS POPULATION
(M hectares) INC
1961 1977 % increase (%)
Asia 436 458 5.0 18
Africa 188 208 10.6 24
South America 82 108 31.7 24
All dev. 722 791 9.6 19.0
Countries
All devpd. 657 671 2.1 6.8
Countries
World 1379 1462 6.0 16
Source: FAO, 1987

Meanwhile, Table 10 shows the land availability per person

Table [Link] availability per person
REGION ARABLE LAND (ha/caput of Growth of Agricultural
labor force) Labor Force (% p.a.)
1982-1984 2000
All developing countries 1.4 1.3 1.3

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.6 1.4 1.8

Near East and North Africa 2.8 2.5 0.6

Asia (excl. China) 0.8 0.7 1.2

Latin America 4.9 5.5 0.3

 A glaring difference is that we West has more than ten times the cultivated area per head of agricultural
population than the developing countries. Also, about 70% of the latter are agriculturally-based, compared to only
about 5% in the West, but also because of the character of production, farming systems and the lands carrying
capacity.
 In the tropics, there is often a need for a very long fallow period, like in the “kaingin” system (Shifting
Cultivation), only about 10% of the total potential arable area can be used at any one time.
iii. Poverty – Wealth Gap
 The United Nations broadly classify the world’s countries as more developed or less developed. The more
developed countries as more developed or less developed. The more developed countries (MCDCs) or simply
developed countries are highly industrialized and most have high average gross national product (GNP) per
capita. They include the United States, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and the Western European
countries. These countries with 1.2B people or about 22% of the world’s population command about 85% of the
world’s wealth and income, use 88% of its natural resources and 73% of its energy, and generate most of its
pollution and wastes.
 All other nations are classified as less developed countries (LDCs) or developing countries, with low or moderate
industrialization and GNPs per capita. Most are in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Their 4.3B people or 78% of
the world’s population have only about 15% of the wealth and income, and they use only about 12% of its natural
resources and 27% of its energy.
 Most of the projected increase in population will take place in LDCs where 1M people are added every four days.
By 2010, the combined population of Asia and Africa are projected to 5.3B almost as many as now live on the
entire planet. The growing gap since 1960 between rich and poor GNP per capita widened further since 1980.
The rich had grown richer while the poor have stayed poor or grown even poorer.

iv. Potential Production of Arable Land

Every time hunger is discussed, the relationships between land availability and its production potential is always a
concern. But, several studies show that, if the generally accepted population projections are used, the developing
countries in particular will be able to feed itself in AD 2000 and even beyond. This is so, even if the whole world
remains producing at a low level of technology, i.e. traditional crops, minimum fertilizers and chemicals, and no
mechanization.
In any discussion on “ways and means of raising productivity”, the actors involved should bear in mind the three major
factors: 1) physical factors (land area, climate, soil, etc); 2)technological factors (availability of know-how, inputs,etc);
3) human factors( the way the society use the above factors). Tp raise crop productivity, the major avenues to consider
are the following: 1) by expanding the area planted to crops 2) by raising the yield per unit area of individual crops and
3) by growing more crops per year (in time and or space).
There is an ample scope to raise the productivity of the various regions in the world especially the tropics. Table 11
shows the average world yields of major crops.
Table 11. Average world yields and the highest country yield of major crops
CROP WORLDS AVE. HIGHEST COUNTRY YIELD (t/ha) World’s Ave. as
YIELD Percentage of the
(t/ha) Highest Country
Yield
Rice 3.2 8.1 Japan 36
Wheat 2.8 5.7 The Netherlands 31
Maize 3.0 7.4 New Zealand 40
Sorghum 1.3 4.8 Spain 27
Sugar Cane 55.3 153.4 Peru 36
Sweet potato 8.4 23.9 Sudan 35
Cassava 9.1 32.3 Cook Islands 28
Soya Beans 1.5 3.4 Italy 45
Common Beans 0.6 2.4 Egypt 23
Groundnuts 1.0 3.8 Malaysia 26
Source: FAO, 1988
According to Beets (1990), the developing countries usually called the Third Word before (now it is not in use) will
be able to produce 2-5 times more than can be consumed if all potential lands are brought to cultivation. These estimates
do not take into account the many human factors, including several other factors such as future levels of external
assistance, the rate at which new technology is generated, the sustainability of the systems and the influence of
environmental deterioration.
1.0 The Important Role of Agriculture in Food Production for Self Sufficiency
Statistics show that majority of the people in developing countries live and work in rural area. According to Todaro
(1980), in all third world countries, agriculture contributes about 30% of the gross national product (GNP) compared to
only about 8% in developed countries like in the USA, Japan, Australia, and the U.K.
The Philippine economy is oriented towards the production of primary products most of which are agriculturally-based.
Foreign exchange generated from exports of agricultural products is badly needed to finance development projects. In
addition, a considerable proportion of imports of consumer goods must also be financed from agriculture.
At one point during the 1950s, there was a considerable debate on whether it was necessary to base the economics of
developing countries on agriculture. It was a misconception then that in order for countries to develop, the industrial base
must be developed. It has been firmly established during the past decades that industrial development without a firm
agricultural base is not possible and it is now believed that one of the more realistic path to sustained development is to
first build a strong agricultural base.
When countries need to import food, there have always been a source of supply, but often the foreign exchange to buy it
is not available. The same situation can be observed within a country i.e. people who are in need of food, which could be
supplied from surpluses of another area of the country, often do not have the purchasing power to buy it. This leads to
the conclusion that there is an urgent need to become self-sufficient in food production.
In the Philippines, being an island nation, the cost of inter-island transport are high, (despite the RORO (Roll on-Roll
out) project of the government) while the cost of making the individual islands self sufficient in food production are
relatively low. In this situation, there does not seem to be need for national self-sufficiency but regional sufficiency will
suffice.
5.0 Food Security in the Philippines
5.1 The Agriculture and Fisheries Modernization Act (AFMA) of 1997 (RA 8435)
This is act prescribes urgent related measures to modernize the agriculture and fisheries sectors of the country in order to
enhance their profitability, and prepare said sectors for the challenges of globalization through an adequate focused and
rational delivery or necessary support, appropriating funds therefore and for other purposes.
The principles are:
 Poverty Alleviation and Social Equity
The poorer sectors of society shall have equitable access to resources, income opportunities, basic and support services
and infrastructure especially in areas where productivity is low as a means of improving their quality of life compared
with other sectors of society.
 Food Security
The availability, adequacy, accessibility and affordability of food supplies to all at all times shall be assured.
 Rational Use of Resources
A rational approach in the allocation of public investments in agriculture and fishery in order to assure efficiency and
effectiveness in the use of scarce resources and to obtain optimal returns on its investments shall be adopted.

 Global Competitiveness
The competitiveness of the agriculture and fishery sectors in both domestic and foreign markets shall be enhanced.
 Sustainable Development
A development that is compatible with the preservation of the ecosystem in areas where agriculture and fisheries
activities are carried out shall be promoted.

 People Empowerment
This shall be promoted by enabling all citizens through direct participation or though their duly elected, chosen or
designated representatives the opportunity to participate in policy formulation and decision-making by establishing the
appropriate mechanisms and by giving them access to information.

 Protection from Unfair Competition

Small farmers and fisher folks shall be protected from unfair competition such as monopolistic and oligopolistic
practices by promoting a policy environment that provides them priority access to credit and strengthened cooperative-
based marketing system.
From the above principles, the five major concerns are:
 Food security
 Poverty alleviation and social equity
 Income enhancement and profitability especially for farmers and fisher folk
 Global Competitiveness
 Sustainability
5.2 Decreasing Hectare of Croplands
With the projected growth in population over the next few decades, the world will experience shrinkage in cropland per
person. As a fixed area of arable land is divided among even more people, it eventually shrinks to the point where
people can no longer feed themselves. In the Philippines, the average landholding is only 40 hectare and an average
family size of 5, making it more difficult to feed the generation to come.
In 50 countries with about 40% of the world’s population, greater than 20% of children under five are underweight and
the situation is even more worse in the poorest low human development countries. The high growth of human population
translates to the actual number of malnourished people not falling fast enough the 1990’s or a decline by just 6M a year
at which rate it would take more than 130 years to rid the world of hunger
VI. Synthesis
This module presented statistical data on land productivity as against food requirements of the ever-increasing population
not only of the country but the whole world. Grim scenario of hunger has been in the pipeline if government will not be
responsive enough to mitigate the problem. The poverty-wealth gap continues to rise, the rich are getting richer while the
poor becomes even poorer. Based on government study, the Philippines will never attain sufficiency in food if the
population which is burgeoning will not be addressed. Food security, therefore, despite of the Agriculture and Fisheries
Modernization Act (AFMA) of 1997, will be vane. On the global scale, the current rate of reduction of malnourished
persons which is 6M annually, shows that it would take more than 130 years to rid the world with hunger.

VIII. References
 Beets, W.C. 1990. Raising and Sustaining Productivity of Smallholder Farming Systems in the Tropics..AgBe
Publishing, Holland.
 U.S. Census Bureau. 2005. World’s 50 Most Populous Countries: 2005.
[Link]
 ADB.2005. Population. In: Key Indicators 2005: Labor markets in Asia: Promoting full, productive, and decent
employment. http:/[Link]/documents/Book/Key-indicators/2005/pdf/[Link]
 Punkari, M. M. Fuentes, P. White, R. Rajalahati and E. Pehu. 2007. Social and Environmental Sustainability of
Agriculture and Rural Development Investment: A Monitoring and Evaluation Toolkit. The IBRDC/The World
Bank, Washington DC
 Perez, F.O. and M.A. Perez, 2002. Lecture Compendium in Agriculture 100: Principles of Environmental Science
and Management. CLSU.