LECTURE Acceptance Sampling
LECTURE Acceptance Sampling
Acceptance sampling, the third branch of statistical quality control, refers to the process
of randomly inspecting a certain number of items from a lot or batch in order to decide
whether to accept or reject the entire batch.
Rejected lots may be subjected to 100 percent inspection or, if purchased, returned to the
supplier for credit or replacement (especially if destructive testing is involved).
BEP = cost of inspection per item / cost of later repair due to a defective item
Acceptance sampling plan (ASP): ASP is a specific plan that clearly states the rules for
sampling and the associated criteria for acceptance or otherwise.
1. It is the purpose of acceptance sampling to sentence lots, not to estimate the lot
quality. Most acceptance-sampling plans are not designed for estimation purposes.
3. The most effective use of acceptance sampling is not to “inspect quality into the
product“, but rather as an audit tool to ensure that the output of a process conforms
to requirements.
Acceptance sampling is most likely to be useful in the following situations:
4. When there are many items to be inspected and the inspection error rate is
sufficiently high that 100% inspection might cause a higher percentage of defective
units to be passed .
5. When the supplier has an excellent quality history, and some reduction in
inspection from 100% is desired, but the supplier’s process capability is sufficiently
low as to make no inspection an unsatisfactory alternative
6. When there are potentially serious product liability risks, and although the
supplier’s process is satisfactory, a program for continuously monitoring the product
is necessary
Advantages and Disadvantages of Sampling
A sampling plan is a plan for acceptance sampling that precisely specifies the parameters of
the sampling process and the acceptance/rejection criteria. The variables to be specified
include the size of the lot (N), the size of the sample inspected from the lot (n), the number
of defects above which a lot is rejected (c), and the number of samples that will be taken.
Single sampling plan is the sampling inspection plan in which the lot disposition is based on
the inspection of a single sample of size n.
Double Sampling Plans:
Following an initial sample, a decision based on the information in that sample is made
either to
If the second sample is taken, the information from both the first and second
sample is combined in order to reach a decision whether to accept or reject the lot.
Multiple Sampling Plan:
If the cumulative number of defectives is less than or equal to the lower limit, sampling
is terminated and the lot is accepted. If the cumulative number of defectives is
between the two limits, another sample is taken.
The analyst plots the total number of defectives against the cumulative sample size, and
if the number of defectives is less than a certain acceptance number (c1 ), the consumer
accepts the lot. If the number is greater than another acceptance number (c2), the
consumer rejects the lot.
Figure illustrates a decision to reject a lot after examining the 40th unit. Such charts
can be easily designed with the help of statistical tables that specify the accept or
reject cut-off values c1 and c2 as a function of the cumulative sample size.
Lot Formation
There are several important considerations in forming lots for inspection.
Random Sampling
The selected units for inspection from the lot should be chosen at random, and they
should be representative of all the items in the lot. The random sampling is an
important concept in acceptance sampling plan. Without random sample, bias will be
introduced in the results.
Probability Distributions for Sampling
There are three probability distributions that may be used to find the probability of
acceptance. These distributions were covered in the Basic Probability chapter and are
reviewed here.
Hyper-geometric Distribution
Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is used when the lot is very large. For large lots, the non-
replacement of the sampled product does not affect the probabilities. The hyper-geometric
takes into consideration that each sample taken affects the probability associated with the
next sample. This is called sampling without replacement.
The binomial assumes that the probabilities associated with all samples are equal. For
very large lot size N , (say infinity). Under this condition, the distribution of the number of
defectives (d) in a random sample of n items is binomial with parameters n and p ,
where p is the fraction defective items in the lot.
The Poisson distribution is used for sampling plans involving the number of defects or
defects per unit rather than the number of defective parts. If the lot size N is large relative
to sample size n (so that n/N ≤ 0.1) and np < 5, we can approximate the binomial
probabilities by the Poisson probabilities. The probability of observing up to and including c
defectives in a sample of size n from a lot with proportion defectives p is given by cumulative
Poisson formula:
Suppose that a lot of size N=10, 000 has been submitted for inspection. A single-sampling
plan is
n=89
C=2
defined by the sample size n and the acceptance number c.
Thus, if the lot size is N = 10,000,then the sampling plan means that from a lot of size
10,000 a random sample of n = 89 units is inspected and the number of nonconforming or
defective items d observed. If the number of observed defectives d is less than or equal to c
= 2, the lot will be accepted. If the number of observed defectives d is greater than 2, the
lot will be rejected.
This procedure is called a single-sampling plan because the lot is sentenced based on the
information contained in one sample of size n.
THE OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC CURVE (OC CURVE)
The OC curve shows the probability of acceptance for various values of incoming
quality.
For example, if the lot fraction defective is p = 0.01, n = 89, and c = 2, then
The OC curve is developed by evaluating equation (15.2) for various values of p. To
construct OC curve plot a P against the lot fraction defective p . The following Table gives
the OC curve calculation for n = 89 and c = 2 and the corresponding Figure is presented
in Figure 15.2.
If the lots have 1% defective, the probability of acceptance the lot is 0.9397. This means
that if 100 lots from a process that manufactures 1% defective product are submitted to
this plan, one would expect to accept 94 of the lots and reject 6 of them. Similarly, if the
lots have 2% defective, the probability of acceptance the lot is 0.7366. This means that if
100 lots from a process that manufactures 2% defective product are submitted to this
plan, one would expect to accept 74 of the lots and reject 26 of them.
F IGURE 1 5.2 OC curve of the single-sampling plan n = 89, c = 2.
Effect of n and c on OC Curves
A sampling plan that discriminated perfectly between good and bad lots would have an OC curve that
looks like Fig. 15.3. The OC curve runs horizontally at a probability of acceptance Pa = 1.00 until a level of
lot quality that
. is considered “bad” is reached, at which point the curve drops vertically to a probability of
acceptance Pa = 0.00, and then the curve runs horizontally again for all lot fraction defectives greater
than the undesirable level.
If such a sampling plan could be employed, all lots of “bad” quality would be rejected, and all lots of
“good” quality would be accepted.
Figure 15.4 shows that the OC curve becomes more like the idealized OC curve shape as the
sample size increases. (Note that the acceptance number c is kept proportional to n.) Thus, the
precision with which a sampling plan differentiates between good and bad lots increases with
the size of the sample.
This number(figure) is known as the Acceptable Quality Level (AQL). The percentage just
larger than this is known as the Lot Tolerance Percent Defective (LTPD ).
Thus, consumers want quality equal to or better than the AQL, and are willing to live with
poorer quality, but they prefer not to accept any lots with a defective percentage greater
or equal to the LTPD.
The LTPD is the poorest level of quality that the consumer is willing to accept in an
individual lot . Alternate names for the LTPD are the Rejectable Quality Level (RQL) and
the Limiting Quality Level (LQL).
Sampling plans are not perfect in discriminating between good and bad lots, i.e.,
mistakes will be made in acceptance of bad lots and rejection of good lots.
Consumer’s risk is the chance or probability that a lot will be accepted that
contains a greater number of defects than the LTPD limit. This is the probability of
making a Type II error—that is, accepting a lot that is truly “bad.” consumer’s risk or
Type II error is generally denoted by beta (β). The relationships among AQL, LTPD,
and are shown in Figure 6-13.
On the other hand, Producer’s risk is the chance or probability that a lot containing an
acceptable quality level(AQL) will be rejected. This is the probability of making a Type I
error—that is, rejecting a lot that is “good.” It is generally denoted by alpha (α).
Producer’s risk is also shown in Figure 6-13.
FIGURE: An OC curve showing producer’s risk (α) and consumer’s risk (β)
A sampling plan and its operating characteristic (OC) curve have a one-to-one relationship.
Therefore, determining the sample size n and acceptance number c is equivalent to
determining the sampling plan’s OC curve.
One way to determine an OC curve is to specify two points on it, for example, the two
points (AQL, 1 – α) and (LTPD, β).
There are other approaches to determine the sampling plan as well. Two of the important
methods are Dodge-Romig and MIL-STD-105E.
Suppose that we wish to construct a sampling plan such that the probability of
acceptance is (1 − α ) for lots with fraction defective p1, and the probability of
acceptance is β for lots with fraction defective p2.
Assuming that binomial sampling is appropriate, uses the point (AQL, 1 – α), lot size N,
and a chosen inspection level to determine the sampling plan.
We shall use the same formula that was used to calculate probability of acceptance.
For given c ,d, p1 and p2 as below
We can try to solve above equations simultaneously to determine the two unknown
quantities n and c. However, this is not easy because these equations are nonlinear.
Fortunately, Larson has determined a nomograph (a graphical calculating device) that
will provide the solution
Suppose AQL = .02 with α = 5% and LTPD = .08 with β = 10%. Use Larson’s nomograph
at the end of this supplement to determine n and c.
The vertical line on the left-hand side is for lot percentage defectives such as AQL and
LTPD. The vertical line on the right-hand side is for the probability of lot acceptance
such as (1 – α) and β.
Connect AQL with (1 – α) and LTPD with β with straight lines. The intersection of
these two lines gives the sample size n and acceptance number c. In this case, n = 90
and c = 3 (see next slide).
Rectifying Inspection
Acceptance-sampling programs usually require corrective action when lots are rejected.
This generally takes the form of 100% inspection or screening of rejected lots, with all
discovered defective items either removed for subsequent rework or return to the
supplier, or replaced from a stock of known good items. Such sampling programs are called
rectifying inspection programs, because the inspection activity affects the final quality of
the outgoing product.
Suppose that incoming lots to the inspection activity have fraction defective p0 . Some of
these lots will be accepted, and others will be rejected. The rejected lots will be screened,
and their final fraction defective will be zero. However, accepted lots have fraction
defective p0. Consequently, the outgoing lots from the inspection activity are a mixture of
lots with fraction defective p0 and fraction defective zero, so the average fraction defective
in the stream of outgoing lots is p1 , which is less than p0. Thus, a rectifying inspection
program serves to “correct” lot quality.
Average Outgoing Quality is widely used for the evaluation of a rectifying sampling plan. The
average outgoing quality is the quality in the lot that results from the application of rectifying
inspection. It is the average value of lot quality that would be obtained over a long sequence of
lots from a process with fraction defective p.
Thus, lots in the outgoing stage of inspection have an expected number of defective
units equal to Pa p(N − n), which we may express as an average fraction defective,
called the Average Outgoing Quality
The average outgoing quality (AOQ) of the inspected lots is average percentage
defective of accepted lots assuming that rejected lots are 100 percent inspected and
defective items in those lots are replaced with good items. AOQ can be calculated
using the following formula:
In practice, the last term in above equation is often omitted because it is usually close to
1.0 and therefore has little effect on the resulting values. The formula then becomes
To illustrate the use of this equation, suppose that N = 10,000, n = 89, and c = 2, and
that the incoming lots are of quality p = 0.01. Now at p = 0.01, we have Pa = 0.9397, and
the AOQ is
That is, the average outgoing quality is 0.93% defective. Note that as the lot size N
becomes large relative to the sample size n, we may write equation as
AOQ = P × p
Problem Lets say that we want to develop an OC curve for a sampling plan in which a
sample of n =5 items is drawn from lots of N 1000 items. The accept/reject criteria
are set up in such a way that we accept a lot if no more than one defect (c = 1) is found.
• Solution
Let’s look at the partial binomial distribution in Table 6-2. Since our criteria require us to
sample n 5, we will go to the row where n equals 5 in the left-hand column. The “x”
column tells us the cumulative number of defects found at which we reject the lot. Since
we are not allowing more than one defect, we look for an x value that corresponds to 1.
The row corresponding to n = 5 and x = 1 tells us our chance or probability of accepting
lots with various proportions of defects using this sampling plan. For example, with this
sampling plan we have a 99.74% chance of accepting a lot with 5% defects. If we move
down the row, we can see that we have a 91.85% chance of accepting a lot with 10%
defects, a 83.52% chance of accepting a lot with 15% defects, and a 73.73% chance of
accepting a lot with 20% defects. Using these values and those remaining in the row, we
can con- struct an OC chart for n = 5 and c = 1. This is shown in Figure 6-14.
FIGURE 6-14
OC curve with n = 5 and c
=1
Figure 6–15 shows a graphical representation of the AOQ values. The AOQ varies, depending on
the proportion of defective items in the lot. The largest value of AOQ, called the average outgoing
quality limit (AOQL), is around 15.85%. You can see from Figure 6-15 that the average outgoing
quality will be high for lots that are either very good or very bad. For lots that have close to 30% of
defective items, the AOQ is the highest. Managers can use this information to compute the worst
possible value of their average outgoing quality given the proportion of defective items (p). Then
this information can be used to develop a sampling plan with appropriate levels of discrimination.
Total Amount of Inspection required by the sampling program.
If the lots contain no defective items, no lots will be rejected, and the amount of inspection
per lot will be the sample size n. If the items are all defective, every lot will be submitted to
100% inspection, and the amount of inspection per lot will be the lot size N. If the lot
quality is 0 < p < 1, the average amount of inspection per lot will vary between the sample
size n and the lot size N. If the lot is of quality p and the probability of lot acceptance is Pa,
then the Average Total Inspection per lot will be
Suppose that the first sample taken under a double-sampling plan is smaller than the
sample that would be required using a single-sampling plan that offers the consumer the
same protection.
In all cases, then, in which a lot is accepted or rejected on the first sample, the cost of
inspection will be lower for double-sampling than it would be for single-sampling.
It is also possible to reject a lot without complete inspection of the second sample. (This
is called curtailment on the second sample.)
Consequently, the use of double-sampling can often result in lower total inspection
costs. Furthermore, in some situations, a double sampling plan has the psychological
advantage of giving a lot a second chance. This may have some appeal to the supplier.
Double-sampling has two potential disadvantages.
First, unless curtailment is used on the second sample, under some circumstances
double-sampling may require more total inspection than would be required in a single-
sampling plan that offers the same protection. Thus, unless double-sampling is used
carefully, its potential economic advantage may be lost.
The OC curve for a double sampling plan is somewhat more involved than the OC curve
for single sampling.
In this section, we describe the construction of type-B OC curves for double sampling. A
double-sampling plan has a primary OC curve that gives the probability of acceptance as
a function of lot or process quality. It also has supplementary OC curves that show the
probability of lot acceptance and rejection on the first sample. The OC curve for the
probability of rejection on the first sample is simply the OC curve for the single-sampling
plan n = n1 and c = c2.
Primary and supplementary OC curves for the plan n1 = 50, c1 = 1, n2 = 100, c2 = 3 are
shown in Fig. We now illustrate the computation of the OC curve for the plan n1 = 50, c1
= 1, n2 =100, c2 = 3. If Pa denotes the probability of acceptance on the combined
samples, and P I a and P II a denote the probability of acceptance on the first and second
samples, respectively, then
To obtain the probability of acceptance on the second sample, we must list the number of
ways the second sample can be obtained.
A second sample is drawn only if there are two or three defectives on the first sample—that is,
if c1 < d1 ≤ c2.
FIGURE OC curves for the double-sampling plan, n1 = 50, c1 = 1, n2 = 100, c2 = 3.
Average Sample Number Curve for a Double Sampling Plan
The average sample number curve of a double-sampling plan is also usually of interest to
the quality engineer. In single-sampling, the size of the sample inspected from the lot is
always constant, whereas in double-sampling, the size of the sample selected depends on
whether or not the second sample is necessary.
The probability of drawing a second sample varies with the fraction defective in the
incoming lot.
With complete inspection of the second sample, the average sample size in double-
sampling is equal to the size of the first sample times the probability that there will only
be one sample, plus the size of the combined samples times the probability that a second
sample will be necessary.
Therefore, a general formula for the average sample number in double-sampling, if we
assume complete inspection of the second sample, is
where P1 is the probability of making a lot-dispositioning decision on the first sample.
This is P1 = P{lot is accepted on the first sample} + P{lot is rejected on the first sample}
If this equation is evaluated for various values of lot fraction defective p, the plot of ASN
versus p is called an Average Sample Number Curve.
In practice, inspection of the second sample is usually terminated and the lot rejected as
soon as the number of observed defective items in the combined sample exceeds the
second acceptance number c2. This is referred to as curtailment of the second sample. The
use of curtailed inspection lowers the average sample number required in double-
sampling.
Multiple-Sampling Plans
This plan will operate as follows: If, at the completion of any stage of sampling, the
number of defective items is less than or equal to the acceptance number, the lot is
accepted.
If, during any stage, the number of defective items equals or exceeds the rejection
number, the lot is rejected; otherwise the next sample is taken. The multiple-sampling
procedure continues until the fifth sample is taken, at which time a lot disposition
decision must be made. The first sample is usually inspected 100%, although
subsequent samples are usually subject to curtailment .
The principal advantage of multiple-sampling plans is that the samples required at each
stage are usually smaller than those in single- or-double-sampling; thus, some economic
efficiency is connected with the use of the procedure. However, multiple-sampling is
much more complex to administer.
Sequential-Sampling Plans
Sequential-sampling is an extension of the double-sampling and multiple-sampling
concept. In sequential-sampling, we take a sequence of samples from the lot and allow
the number of samples to be determined entirely by the results of the sampling process.
In practice, sequential-sampling plans are usually truncated after the number inspected is
equal to three times the number that would have been inspected using a corresponding
single-sampling plan.
If the sample size selected at each stage is greater than one, the process is usually called
group sequential-sampling.
If the sample size inspected at each stage is one, the procedure is usually called item-by-
item sequential-sampling. Item-by-item sequential-sampling is based on the Sequential
Probability Ratio Test (SPRT), developed by Wald (1947).
If the plotted points stay within the boundaries of the acceptance and rejection lines,
another sample must be drawn. As soon as a point falls on or above the upper line, the lot
is rejected. When a sample point falls on or below the lower line, the lot is accepted.
Figure : Graphical Performance of Sequential Sampling.
The equations for the two limit lines for specified values of p1 , 1−α , p2 , and β are
Acceptance and rejection numbers must be integers, so the acceptance number is the
next integer less than or equal to XA, and the rejection number is the next integer
greater than or equal to XR. Thus, for n = 45, the acceptance number is 0 and the
rejection number is 3.
Note that the lot cannot be accepted until at least 44 units have been tested. Table 15.3
shows only the first 46 units. Usually, the plan would be truncated after the inspection
of 267 units, which is three times the sample size required for an equivalent single-
sampling plan.
The OC Curve and ASN Curve for Sequential Sampling.
The OC curve for sequential-sampling can be easily obtained. Two points on the curve are (p1,
1 − α) and (p2, β). A third point, near the middle of the curve, is p = s and Pa = h2/(h1 + h2).
AOQ ≈ Pa p
The average total inspection is also easily obtained. Note that the amount of sampling is A/C
when a lot is accepted and N when it is rejected. Therefore, the average total inspection is
How Much and How Often to Inspect
Consider Product Cost and Product Volume As you know, 100 percent inspection is
rarely possible. The question then becomes one of how often to inspect in order to
minimize the chances of passing on defects and still keep inspection costs manageable.
This decision should be related to the product cost and product volume of what is
being produced. At one extreme are high-volume, low-cost items, such as paper,
pencils, nuts and bolts, for which 100 percent inspection would not be cost justified.
Also, with such a large volume 100 percent inspection would not be possible because
worker fatigue sets in and defects are often passed on.
At the other extreme are low volume, high-cost items, such as parts that will go into a
space shuttle or be used in a medical procedure, that require 100 percent inspection.
Most items fall somewhere between the two extremes just described. For these items,
frequency of inspection should be designed to consider the trade-off between the cost of
inspection and the cost of passing on a defective item. Historically, inspections
were set up to minimize these two costs.
Today, it is believed that defects of any type should not be tolerated and that eliminating
them helps reduce organizational costs. Still, the inspection process should be set up to
consider issues of product cost and volume. For example, one company will probably
have different frequencies of inspection for different products.
Consider Process Stability
The size of the lot or batch being produced is another factor to consider
in determining the amount of inspection. A company that produces a
small number of large lots will have a smaller number of inspections than
a company that produces a large number of small lots. The reason is that
every lot should have some inspection, and when lots are large, there are
fewer lots to inspect.
Where to Inspect
Since we cannot inspect every aspect of a process all the time, another important decision
is to decide where to inspect. Some areas are less critical than others.
Following are some points that are considered most important for inspection.
[Link] Materials :
Materials that are coming into a facility from a supplier or distribution centres should be
inspected before they enter the production process. It is important to check the quality of
materials before labour is added to it. For example, it would be wasteful for a seafood
restaurant not to inspect the quality of incoming lobsters only to later discover that its
lobster bisque is bad.
[Link] Products:
Products that have been completed and are ready for shipment to customers should also
be inspected. This is the last point at which the product is in the production facility. The
quality of the product represents the company’s overall quality.
The final quality level is what will be experienced by the customer, and an inspection at
this point is necessary to ensure high quality in such aspects as fitness for use, packaging,
and presentation.
During the production process it makes sense to check quality before performing a costly
process on the product. If quality is poor at that point and the product will ultimately be
discarded, adding a costly process will simply lead to waste. For example, in the production
of leather armchairs in a furniture factory, chair frames should be inspected for cracks
before the leather covering is added. Otherwise, if the frame is defective the cost of the
leather upholstery and workmanship may be wasted.
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