Economics Note | Alpha series March 14, 2025

ASEAN
Economics Focus
Deep dive in ASEAN-US tariff & trade policy
ASEAN-5 export growth
■ ASEAN shows some commonality in terms of tariffs yet varied depending on
%yoy
100
ASEAN countries exports growth national objectives. ASEAN also has existing trade disputes with the US.
■ We have a longstanding view that tariff threats posed by the US are only a
80
strategy to achieve concessions from its trading partners.
60 ■ Thus far, some US trade partners have conceded to the US’s grievances and
40
we think there is a possibility that the US may not have to raise tariffs.

20
An eye for an eye
0
The US President signed a memorandum on 13 Feb 2025 to implement a reciprocal tariff
policy. The policy will focus on whether tariff and non-tariff measures by its trading partners
-20 are fair and mutual, as well as recommending solutions on a country-specific basis. The
-40
US authorities have been given 180 days to respond to the memorandum but proposals
Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 could be ready as early as 2 Apr 2025.
Indonesia Thailand Vietnam
Singapore Malaysia High tariff on sin products, agriculture and vehicles
An analysis on tariff comparison by product showed a disparity among countries and by
type of goods. Overall, the US has a lower average tariff than other countries globally at
Insert
2.2%, as opposed to countries such as India (12%), South Korea (8.4%) and Mexico
(3.9%). Among ASEAN countries, only Singapore has a lower average tariff than the US.
Our analysis of tariff and non-tariff barriers on ASEAN-5 is as follows:
• Malaysia has a relatively low average tariff at 3.3% reflecting its export-oriented
growth policy. However, a high tariff is imposed on imported rubber products,
cocoa, vehicles, alcohol and tobacco. Costs are also added through excise taxes
including on alcoholic drinks, cigarettes, and vehicles. Trade disputes with the US
involve Approved Permit policy, Intellectual Property (IP) protection, foreign
participation, and foreign worker treatment.
• Thailand tariffs at 6.3% reflect a relatively high barrier to agriculture at 37.6%.
Furthermore, there are additional charges on imports such as excise duty, Value
Added Tax (VAT) and import permits. General trade concerns with the US involve
IP protection, price controls and investment protection.
• Indonesia tariffs are at 5.3% and imposed on a range of agricultural goods,
vehicles, textiles, alcohol and tobacco. Imports are also subject to VAT, excise
tax, and tax on luxury goods. It has IP protection issues and high restrictions on
imports including various licensing requirements, and local content requirements.
• Vietnam tariffs at 5.1% are relatively competitive with high rates imposed on
agriculture products, leather goods, textiles, vehicles, alongside sin products such
as alcohol and tobacco. Imports are also subject to added tax including VAT,
consumption tax and environmental tax. Trade issues with the US involve
restrictions on Internet & digital trade, and foreign participation.
• Singapore has nearly zero tariffs alongside a free trade agreement with the US.
It does impose excise duties on selected products including fuel, vehicles,
Economist(s) alcoholic drinks, and tobacco. Major trade issues involve transshipment of
restricted goods and claims of currency manipulation.

Gaming the system

We have a longstanding view that tariffs by itself do not work. In the long-term, trade
rerouting will nullify any unilateral tariff imposed on a country - we have seen this with China
Nazmi IDRUS as trade was rerouted to ASEAN while the US still incurred high trade deficit. Tariffs are
T (60) 3 2635 9259 also inflationary and subsequent legal battles overseas and domestically will make it less
E [email protected]
appealing for President Trump to sustain tariffs in the long-term, in our view. Instead, we
Wisnu TRIHATMOJO
T (62) 21 3006 1726 think concessions by the trading partners will be the solution. In fact, several countries have
E [email protected] recently come to some form of bilateral agreement with the US in an effort to stave off being
Gun HATHAISATTHA reprimanded. We see more volatility ahead including more threats by the US, but ultimately,
T (66) 2 761 9232
we think the US may not raise tariffs at all.
E [email protected]

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN Powered by the
THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CGS INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES USA, INC AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH. EFA Platform
ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

Deep dive in ASEAN-US tariff & trade policy

Policy pivot
The US administration unveiled a memorandum on 13 Feb 2025 highlighting a
shift in policy away from universal tariffs (as indicated under Trump’s presidential
election campaign) towards one based on reciprocity. The policy will evaluate
tariffs imposed by the US trade partners and assess whether trade relations are
fair and mutual. According to the memo, the focus will be on the differences in
tariffs but will also include assessments on a range of non-tariff measures such
as consumption taxes, subsidies, exchange rates regulations, and wage
suppression. The US authorities have been given 180 days (until Aug 2025) to
identify countries that will be affected and recommend solutions on a country-
specific basis. However, the US president stated that proposals could be ready as
early as 2 Apr 2025.

Rationale
Widening goods deficit
President Trump has made reducing the US current account deficit a priority in
his administration. Upon his return to the oval office on 20 Jan 2025, President
Trump signed an executive order laying out his new administration’s trade
priorities. The first listed item in the order was “investigating the causes of our
country’s large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods” alongside
“recommend appropriate measures, such as a global supplemental tariff or other
policies, to remedy such deficits”.

In 2023, the US current account registered a US$905bn deficit, representing 3.3%

of GDP. This was an improvement compared to the 3.9% current account deficit
in 2022 and was much better than the US’s peak deficit of 6.0% in 2006. That
said, significant deterioration of the current account was recorded in 2024 with a
current account deficit of US$336bn in 3Q24, representing about 4.2% of GDP
(2Q24: 3.8%). The widening deficit reflects expanded deficits in goods, secondary
income, and primary income.

Within the current account, the President’s major issue of contention revolves
around the goods balance. Trade balance in goods on a nominal basis hit the
steepest all-time monthly deficit of US$119bn in Dec 24.

On an annual basis, trade deficit in 2024 was the largest in history at US$1.3tr
(2023: US$1.1tr). In 2024, the US’s largest trade deficit was with China at
US$273bn, followed by Mexico (US$172bn), and Vietnam (US$123bn) as per
Figure 3. By product, the deficit was determined by a few sectors namely vehicles,
electrical & electronics, machineries, pharmaceuticals, and clothing (Figure 4).

Unilateral tariff reduction

The US has been the major proponent of trade liberalisation since the 1940’s. The
creation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1948 - a
precursor of the World Trade Organization (WTO), was aimed at tariff reduction
and other trade barriers on a reciprocal and mutually beneficial basis.

Since GATT’s creation, the US has been unilaterally reducing tariffs, without
requiring tariff reductions by others. As a result, the US average tariff went from
as high as 59% in 1939 to 2.2% in 2023 on a weighted average basis. The US
now has one of the lowest average tariff rates globally, below its trading partners
such as India (12.0%), South Korea (8.4%), and Mexico (3.9%).

2
 ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

Claims of unfair trade practices

Besides tariffs, there are non-tariffs and technical barriers to trade. These
restrictions can be wide-ranging such as quotas on import volumes, licensing
requirements, subsidies, stringent product standards, specific labeling rules, as
well as sanitary and phytosanitary measures (related to food safety).

The United States Trade Representative (USTR) has often highlighted these
practices in its periodical reports arguing that these stringent technical regulations
can lead to significant added costs for the US companies, effectively blocking its
products from entering a market. Sometimes, regulations can be vague or
frequently changed, making it difficult for exporters to stay compliant. The USTR
has called for trading nations to follow set guidelines in imposing non-tariff barriers
based on international standards or scientific risk assessments, apply them only
to the extent necessary, and develop such measures in a transparent manner.

Figure 1: US current account had a record deficit of US$311 bn in Figure 2: The US’s biggest trading partners are China, Mexico
3Q24 and Canada
US$ bn Quarterly US current account balances US trade balance in goods and services (US$bn, 2023)
200
Exports Imports
Mexico -$162B
100
Canada -$41B
China -$252B
0 Germany -$87B
Japan -$66B
-100 South Korea -$41B
United Kingdom +$14B
-200 Taiwan -$48B
Vietnam -$103B
India -$46B
-300
Netherlands +$62B
Italy -$47B
-400 France -$17B
Ireland -$7B
-500 Brazil +$24B
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24

Singapore +$28B
Switzerland -$5B
Goods Services Primary Income Malaysia -$26B
Belgium +$16B
Secondary Income Current Account
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600

SOURCES: CEIC, CGSI RESEARCH SOURCES: CEIC, CGSI RESEARCH

Figure 3: The US’s largest trade deficits are with China, Mexico Figure 4: The US trade deficit is largely in vehicles, electricals,
and Vietnam and machineries
US$ bn US trade balance in goods by countries US$ bn US trade balance in goods by type of products
200 China 400 Vehicles
Mexico 200
0 Electrical &
Vietnam electronics
0
-200 Machineries
Germany
-200
-400 Japan Pharmaceuticals
-400
South Korea
-600
-600 Mineral fuels
India
-800
Canada -800 Aircraft

-1,000 Netherlands -1,000

Clothings
-1,200 United Kingdom -1,200
Base metals
Australia -1,400
-1,400
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024

Others Others

SOURCES: CEIC, CGSI RESEARCH SOURCES: CEIC, CGSI RESEARCH

3
ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

Comparing tariffs
Tariffs explained
Tariff (also called import duties or import tax) is a charge levied by governments
on the value of goods and services entering the country. Tariffs are added to the
price of an import product and are paid by the consumer. As a result, consumer
spending behaviour can be altered to suit various government objectives including
protecting domestic infant industries, as a source of fiscal revenue, and as a
strategic move including retaliation on trading partners.

Calculating tariffs
While other statistical data can be aggregated by simply taking its sum or average
(such as export value or exchange rates), tariff aggregation to a higher product
category is slightly more complex. WTO provided four measures of tariff averages,
two of which are based on tariff duties which can be broken down into two that
take into account trade weights:
• Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff is a non-discriminatory principle to
offer the same tariff to all WTO member countries. This excludes
preferential tariffs under free trade agreements and other schemes.
However, other nations do not need to match one nation’s MFN tariff rates.
• Effectively Applied tariff takes into account preferential tariff
agreements already in place. It is best used for country-to-country
comparison as it represents the actual tariff rate a country applies to
imports from another WTO member. Effectively applied tariffs are often
lower than MFNs.
Within the MFN and Effectively Applied tariffs, the tariff can be further specified:
• Simple Mean is an arithmetical mean that gives the same weight to each
tariff line that a country has a trade in. The simple average does not
consider the relative economic importance of the products.
• Weighted Average is weighted by the country’s import value. The greater
the importance of a product for trade, the greater the weight given to the
product in the aggregation. A drawback is that the tariffs have an
endogenous effect on traded quantities for a relatively elastic import
demand (the higher the tariff, the lesser the demand for such imports, thus
reducing its weight).

More jargon in this discussion:

• Ad-valorem is Latin for "according to value" and this type of tariff is levied
on a good based on a percentage of that good's value. Ad-valorem tariff
is the most common form of tariff.
• Non ad-valorem implies a tariff that is imposed in some other form such
as per weight or quantity (i.e. 40 sen per cigarette stick). Sometimes tariffs
are imposed using a combination of both ad-valorem and non ad-valorem
(i.e. 5% plus RM40 per kg of tobacco). For comparison of tariffs across
different measurements, WTO will convert non ad-valorem tariff lines into
an ad-valorem equivalent using the volume of existing imports as a basis.
• Harmonised System (HS Code) is a standardised numerical method of
classifying traded products. A standard tariff code consists of
approximately 5,300 articles. In this report, we combine the longer digit
tariff lines into a 2-digit HS code which aggregates the breakdown to only
99 product categories.

4
 ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

Figure 5: US tariff comparison vs. major trading partners shows the former having lower tariffs on a large number of products
Top US trading partners ASEAN members
CA MX CN DE JP KR UK TW IN SG MY ID TH VN PH
HS Code Product Category Tariff difference in % (positive number implies country tariff is higher relative to the US, indicated in red)
01 Live Animals 8.7 5.4 0.5 0.4 22.2 0.0 0.1 2.8 27.6 0.0 -0.1 2.5 13.7 1.3 15.7
02 Meat 33.5 5.4 7.1 52.4 24.9 8.2 34.2 9.2 0.0 0.0 4.5 5.0 49.7 15.6 27.0
03 Fish and seafood 0.8 14.1 6.1 9.7 4.4 1.1 7.9 17.0 23.7 0.0 -0.1 5.0 1.3 10.8 8.7
04 Dairy, Eggs, Honey 108.8 10.2 5.2 28.0 19.6 12.0 14.8 28.9 29.7 0.0 -2.8 5.0 129.2 1.9 -13.6
05 Products Of Animal Origin, Others 0.0 9.3 15.1 -0.2 -0.4 2.7 -0.3 7.8 29.3 0.0 -0.3 4.9 0.1 2.8 3.0
06 Live Trees 2.6 5.0 4.5 1.8 -1.2 0.0 -3.2 7.5 7.7 0.0 -3.0 5.5 0.4 12.9 4.1
07 Edible Vegetables 4.5 3.3 -1.2 -2.0 8.1 137.3 -0.9 11.9 27.2 0.0 -1.3 0.0 96.7 3.6 17.1
08 Edible Fruit And Nuts 1.8 13.7 12.5 0.9 3.5 13.4 1.1 12.8 14.7 0.0 -2.9 5.1 13.0 11.5 5.0
09 Coffee, Tea, and Spices 0.0 37.5 14.2 3.2 9.3 0.1 3.1 -1.4 73.9 0.0 -0.1 12.6 62.9 27.5 20.9
10 Cereals 0.8 0.4 44.4 12.3 27.7 43.8 7.9 5.6 61.3 0.0 -6.4 -5.4 -5.8 -5.4 -3.6
11 Milling Products; Malt; Starches; 3.5 2.6 14.9 13.5 18.1 15.6 9.1 8.6 36.5 0.0 -4.5 5.0 17.9 13.6 9.8
12 Oil Seeds 0.6 6.2 2.7 -1.2 1.0 4.6 0.6 -1.3 15.2 0.0 -2.6 0.0 78.7 -0.6 2.9
13 Lac; Gums, Resins And Other Vegetable Saps 0.0 5.2 8.7 2.2 3.2 20.2 -2.2 3.9 29.8 0.0 -0.3 2.2 5.1 4.6 0.0
14 Vegetable Plaiting Materials 0.0 10.0 5.8 -1.1 -0.4 0.0 -1.1 5.5 28.9 0.0 -0.8 0.0 2.3 4.1 3.1
15 Animal Or Vegetable Fats 9.8 8.7 12.0 1.7 4.0 0.1 2.6 3.8 58.7 0.0 2.2 4.6 22.5 14.2 4.6
16 Preparations Of Meat, & Seafood 29.3 16.0 1.0 16.6 11.4 0.0 2.1 20.2 27.4 0.0 7.0 19.1 21.7 16.1 32.0
17 Sugar Confectionery 0.3 43.5 -1.3 18.0 1.8 3.0 -3.7 5.1 1.2 0.0 -9.5 1.6 -7.4 -8.6 -4.4
18 Cocoa Preparations 50.8 26.0 1.4 -0.6 18.4 43.8 0.0 7.4 29.7 0.0 12.4 12.7 2.9 12.0 -0.7
19 Cereals, Flour, Starch Or Milk 12.6 12.0 6.7 13.3 17.9 97.6 2.0 20.6 29.6 -0.4 -2.4 8.3 16.5 6.6 11.3
20 Preparations Of Vegetables, Fruit, Nuts 4.0 11.1 -0.2 12.1 6.1 0.3 11.2 10.7 21.9 0.0 -3.0 3.2 38.6 13.8 8.2
21 Miscellaneous Edible Preparations 19.9 14.9 2.4 -3.1 16.9 0.0 -2.2 7.2 79.2 0.0 4.0 31.0 12.4 9.4 3.3
22 Beverages, Spirits And Vinegar 6.8 26.5 6.0 2.0 5.1 0.1 12.6 -0.6 49.5 8.7 4.8 31.1 49.3 16.7 -2.2
23 Food Residues And Waste 2.7 4.2 1.4 20.0 -13.9 0.2 0.6 -17.1 24.7 0.0 -18.9 -1.6 10.6 -0.6 -3.4
24 Tobacco 5.2 45.0 3.0 -10.4 -5.6 0.0 -39.0 7.8 -33.3 0.0 671.1 -2.3 6.7 79.0 -44.1
25 Salt; Sulphur; Earths And Stone; 0.2 0.0 2.6 0.0 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 9.6 0.0 0.8 4.6 0.1 2.7 1.5
26 Ores, Slag And Ash 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -1.9 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -2.1 7.5 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.0
27 Mineral Fuels 0.1 0.0 2.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -1.7 0.0 7.8 0.0 1.8 3.9 -0.3 2.2 0.0
28 Inorganic Chemicals 0.0 2.0 3.3 1.4 -0.5 0.0 2.5 1.0 9.0 0.0 -1.6 1.3 -0.2 -2.0 1.9
29 Organic Chemicals 0.0 1.0 0.1 -1.5 -2.5 0.0 -2.2 -0.5 6.1 0.0 -3.9 0.2 -0.6 -4.0 1.3
30 Pharmaceutical Products 0.0 4.6 2.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 4.5 0.7 2.9
31 Fertilisers 0.0 0.0 10.2 3.8 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.0 5.7 0.0 0.0 3.3 2.3 1.8 1.9
32 Tanning Or Dyeing Extracts 4.2 4.0 4.4 1.4 -0.3 0.0 1.1 0.0 6.3 0.0 14.1 3.5 1.3 0.4 3.5
33 Essential Oils, Perfumery, Cosmetic 4.4 8.4 2.1 0.5 0.7 0.0 -0.4 0.3 26.8 0.0 -0.4 21.2 19.5 7.5 3.5
34 Soap, Organic Surface-Active Agents 5.0 3.9 7.6 -0.2 -0.9 0.0 0.7 -0.7 8.6 0.0 2.8 5.3 6.5 9.6 6.8
35 Albuminoidal Substances; Modified Starches; Glues 12.7 6.4 5.9 4.2 3.3 0.6 2.5 2.4 23.9 0.0 12.1 4.6 5.7 7.0 2.9
36 Explosives; Pyrotechnic Products; Matches 6.5 1.4 4.4 5.4 3.0 0.0 -2.9 5.8 9.5 0.0 18.2 5.1 19.9 0.2 1.9
37 Photographic Or Cinematographic Goods 1.3 0.2 46.9 1.7 -0.3 0.0 -2.2 -0.2 8.3 0.0 -0.9 5.0 1.6 1.5 0.3
38 Miscellaneous Chemical Products 1.0 1.7 2.8 -1.6 -2.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 7.9 0.0 -2.3 3.5 3.2 -1.6 1.5
39 Plastics 1.1 6.1 2.5 0.6 -1.6 0.0 0.5 -1.3 6.0 0.0 3.0 6.9 5.0 -2.1 9.6
40 Rubber products 3.2 5.2 6.2 0.5 -2.5 0.0 -0.5 2.8 8.3 0.0 6.7 5.2 5.5 -0.6 5.3
41 Raw Hides And Skins 0.0 0.0 3.3 -1.8 6.4 0.0 -1.4 -3.7 5.9 0.0 0.0 -0.5 1.9 0.4 4.1
42 Articles Of Leather 7.8 16.5 -4.4 -3.0 1.4 0.0 -2.5 -1.0 6.7 0.0 -11.5 13.9 14.5 12.8 9.1
43 Furskins And Artificial Fur 2.1 0.0 16.0 -1.2 17.2 0.0 -1.7 -0.8 8.8 0.0 -4.0 15.0 0.5 24.9 3.0
44 Wood products 0.8 6.6 -2.8 0.4 -1.5 0.0 -2.0 -3.8 3.5 0.0 -0.7 -0.5 2.0 -3.6 3.3
45 Cork And Articles Of Cork 0.0 0.7 5.2 4.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 2.4 9.9 0.0 8.7 5.0 1.3 19.0 2.0
46 Manufactures Of Straw 4.5 13.8 2.6 -1.1 1.3 0.0 -2.6 1.5 6.4 0.0 14.1 22.9 19.8 -4.7 12.9
47 Pulp Of Wood 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
48 Paper And Paperboard 0.0 1.1 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 15.4 5.0 5.7 14.9 5.1
49 Printed Books, Newspapers 0.0 6.3 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 0.0 2.1 3.1 1.4 7.4 3.0
50 Silk 0.0 0.0 6.6 6.3 8.5 0.0 3.9 2.7 18.3 0.0 7.3 8.3 15.2 9.7 1.0
51 Wool, Animal Hair 0.0 10.0 26.8 -4.7 -4.6 0.0 -6.3 -5.6 -3.2 0.0 0.0 -10.0 -2.2 4.4 -13.0
52 Cotton 0.1 4.1 32.2 -5.7 -8.0 0.0 -1.8 -8.4 -2.4 0.0 -8.3 -8.0 -8.6 -8.7 -5.0
53 Other Vegetable Textile Fibres 0.0 7.0 6.4 5.4 -3.5 0.0 4.8 1.9 7.4 0.0 0.0 9.0 4.2 12.0 3.5
54 Man-Made Filaments 0.0 5.9 -4.6 -0.2 -2.8 0.0 -7.2 -4.5 2.6 0.0 1.0 3.1 -3.0 4.0 -5.0
55 Man-Made Staple Fibres 0.1 8.7 -1.5 -0.4 -3.2 0.0 -7.3 -2.8 -2.1 0.0 -7.8 -0.8 0.5 -2.2 -8.7
56 Wadding, Felt And Nonwovens 0.6 9.6 5.3 3.4 2.3 0.0 1.6 2.6 13.7 0.0 15.9 2.9 4.1 8.4 10.8
57 Carpets And Other Textile Floor Coverings 11.4 15.0 1.2 4.5 3.4 0.0 2.7 8.2 17.2 0.0 11.9 23.8 26.4 6.5 13.4
58 Special Woven Fabrics 0.0 8.9 -0.3 -0.5 -4.7 0.0 -0.9 1.7 5.5 0.0 10.3 -0.6 1.2 6.0 4.6
59 Impregnated, Coated Textile 0.5 9.1 2.7 1.9 -0.4 0.0 3.4 -1.2 11.1 0.0 -0.3 3.5 5.9 4.4 4.1
60 Knitted Or Crocheted Fabrics 0.0 10.0 -4.3 -2.4 -3.1 0.0 -2.8 -2.0 8.4 0.0 6.4 -1.6 -5.8 1.7 -2.0
61 Apparel And Clothing, Knitted 17.2 22.2 -8.4 -1.0 -5.1 0.0 -2.7 -4.5 9.0 0.0 -12.3 10.2 15.6 4.8 -1.5
62 Apparel And Clothing, Not Knitted 15.9 20.9 -4.0 1.9 -1.0 0.0 1.9 1.5 9.3 0.0 -11.8 12.9 16.4 8.2 3.0
63 Other Made-Up Textile Articles 14.2 15.8 -1.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 1.9 4.3 1.4 0.0 -0.4 8.8 20.5 8.2 12.4
64 Footwear, Gaiters 15.5 14.5 -8.1 1.2 22.6 0.0 1.6 -4.2 12.6 0.0 -24.0 -6.0 18.0 -8.5 4.5
65 Headgear And Parts Thereof 5.0 12.3 0.7 1.6 4.2 0.0 0.4 4.9 5.3 0.0 -0.4 5.9 16.7 5.6 -1.2
66 Umbrellas, Sun Umbrellas, Walking Sticks 5.7 14.9 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.0 -2.2 -0.5 17.0 0.0 12.7 14.8 20.6 22.0 15.0
67 Prepared Feathers And Down 7.6 8.8 3.3 -3.8 1.6 0.0 -0.6 -1.7 10.4 0.0 12.6 13.6 16.0 18.6 14.3
68 Articles Of Stone, Plaster, Cement, Asbestos 3.3 2.5 9.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 -0.4 5.7 8.4 0.0 16.0 7.7 6.8 11.2 2.9
69 Ceramic Products 2.9 1.4 2.0 2.5 -1.6 0.0 -3.2 2.4 2.3 0.0 -1.4 15.3 7.5 12.1 4.0
70 Glass And Glassware 0.0 4.7 4.2 0.0 -3.8 0.0 -2.7 2.3 7.1 0.0 14.0 3.8 5.8 18.4 4.8
71 Natural Or Cultured Pearls 0.4 4.6 1.9 -0.6 1.0 0.0 -1.4 -2.0 10.1 0.0 -2.4 2.1 1.0 1.8 4.9
72 Iron And Steel 0.0 10.4 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 14.6 0.0 0.2 3.3 1.2 0.1 1.5
73 Articles Of Iron Or Steel 1.1 1.8 5.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 -1.0 2.7 16.5 0.0 4.9 8.2 9.2 8.7 8.9
74 Copper And Articles Thereof 0.1 2.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 0.0 -1.9 -0.4 2.8 0.0 -1.8 7.7 0.5 -1.2 3.6
75 Nickel And Articles Thereof 0.5 0.0 4.4 -0.6 0.5 0.0 -0.4 -2.5 3.1 0.0 -1.4 6.0 1.6 -2.4 2.9
76 Aluminium And Articles Thereof 1.2 2.5 0.8 2.5 -0.6 0.0 2.7 -0.4 1.7 0.0 -2.4 1.2 1.0 3.4 5.4
78 Lead And Articles Thereof 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.1 0.9 0.0 -2.3 -0.8 3.4 0.0 -2.4 6.0 0.0 -2.1 2.9
79 Zinc And Articles Thereof 0.2 0.0 1.9 1.9 -0.5 0.0 -2.5 -0.5 2.7 0.0 -1.6 8.6 2.8 0.0 1.4
80 Tin And Articles Thereof 0.1 0.3 4.2 -2.5 -1.8 0.0 -2.6 -0.4 8.1 0.0 0.1 5.0 0.1 3.9 1.1
81 Other Base Metals; Cermets; Articles Thereof 0.0 1.9 3.5 2.5 -9.6 0.0 0.8 -4.7 5.1 0.0 -5.5 -1.4 -0.1 -1.5 1.1
82 Tools, Implements, Cutlery, Spoons And Forks 1.7 1.4 3.5 -0.9 -1.4 0.0 -2.1 0.5 5.7 0.0 1.0 1.0 9.6 8.8 2.3
83 Miscellaneous Articles Of Base Metal 1.3 9.6 6.1 -0.5 -0.9 0.0 -3.0 3.9 11.3 0.0 12.9 9.1 9.4 15.9 6.7
84 Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery 0.2 2.0 2.4 1.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.2 0.3 6.0 0.0 1.9 5.0 2.5 2.3 1.2
85 Electrical Machinery And Equipment And Parts 0.4 2.3 0.3 -0.3 -1.3 0.0 -0.4 0.2 9.2 0.0 0.5 4.8 3.0 0.2 0.3
86 Railway Or Tramway Locomotives, Rolling Stock 6.4 0.3 3.4 0.3 -0.8 0.0 -1.1 -1.1 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -2.7 4.3
87 Vehicles Other Than Railway 5.0 8.8 12.1 6.9 -2.4 0.0 5.4 14.6 24.2 0.0 19.1 12.3 29.8 25.4 26.8
88 Aircraft, Spacecraft, And Parts Thereof 0.0 0.3 2.5 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 3.0
89 Ships, Boats And Floating Structures 8.3 13.5 8.3 0.6 -1.2 0.0 -1.4 -1.4 10.0 0.0 -1.5 5.0 4.3 1.2 6.2
90 Optical, Photographic, Cinematographic 0.1 3.7 0.5 0.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 7.9 0.0 -0.2 4.9 2.0 -0.6 0.4
91 Clocks And Watches And Parts Thereof 4.8 0.0 0.9 -11.8 -11.5 0.0 -4.2 -1.4 -7.0 0.0 -7.9 5.8 4.4 15.3 3.2
92 Musical Instruments 3.5 1.4 6.8 0.3 -0.4 0.0 -1.4 3.8 5.8 0.0 -5.1 7.4 8.6 -0.7 7.0
93 Arms And Ammunition 4.2 10.4 10.7 0.9 7.6 0.0 1.5 -0.7 8.1 0.0 25.8 6.1 29.9 -2.1 13.0
94 Furniture; Bedding, Mattresses 3.9 3.9 2.3 0.9 -0.1 0.0 0.3 2.1 22.2 0.0 2.4 9.1 17.4 13.9 11.4
95 Toys, Games And Sports Requisites 0.0 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.7 19.8 0.0 -0.4 12.3 -0.1 7.9 -0.3
96 Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.9 -0.4 0.0 20.7 -0.2
97 Works Of Art, And Antiques 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Tariff used is Effectively Applied rate aggregated using weighted average approach
SOURCES: WORLD INTEGRATED TRADE SOLUTION (WITS), CGSI RESEARCH

5
 ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

Malaysia
Low tariff with exceptions
Among the major US trading partners, Malaysia tariffs are relatively low.
According to WTO, its average Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) weighted tariff rate
was 3.3% in 2023. The MFN tariff rate was higher for agricultural products at 7.2%,
and 2.9% for non-agricultural products.

In general, higher tariffs were recorded in sectors that have significant local
production. This includes sectors such as rubber products, cocoa, and vehicles.
That said, mature and competitive industries such as palm oil, machineries, and
electricals are accorded low tariffs. Malaysia also imposes high tariffs on sin
products particularly alcohol and tobacco, with the latter recording an effective
tariff of nearly 670% in 2023. Tobacco in particular has a combination of ad-
valorem and non ad-valorem tariff (i.e. 5% plus RM40 per kg).

Apart from import tariffs, Malaysia also imposes excise duties which adds to the
import cost. Goods that are subject to the duty include sweetened beverages,
alcoholic drinks, un-denatured ethyl alcohol, cigarettes, motor vehicles, playing
cards, and mahjong tiles. Of interest, the excise duty for cigarette is RM0.40 per
stick (full product list here).

Figure 6: Breakdown of tariff by product type

US-Malaysia Tariff comparison (Effectively Applied tariff, weighted, 2023)
30.0

Arms And Ammunition

Malaysia tariff is
25.0 higher than the US

Vehicles Other Than Railway

20.0 Manufactures Of Straw
Explosives; Pyrotechnic Products;
Matches Umbrellas, Sun Umbrellas, Walking Sticks
US tariff is higher
Malaysia tariff

Tanning Or Dyeing Extracts

Wadding, Felt And Nonwovens than Malaysia
15.0 Paper And Paperboard Beverages, Spirits And Vinegar
Cocoa Preparations
Rubber products
Miscellaneous Edible Preparations
10.0 Preparations Of Meat, & Seafood Man-Made Filaments
Cork And Articles Of Cork
Silk Plastics
Articles Of Iron Or Steel
5.0 Ceramic Products
Meat
Impregnated, Coated Textile
Animal Or Vegetable Fats Sugar Confectionery
Edible Fruit And Nuts Man-Made Staple Fibres
Salt; Sulphur; Earths And Stone;
0.0 Cereals Cotton Apparel And Clothing, Knitted Food Residues And Waste Footwear, Gaiters
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
US tariff
Chart excludes outliers such as Tobacco which recorded relative tariff of over 600%. Full relative comparison is available on Fig 5,
SOURCES: WITS, CGSI RESEARCH

Potential trade issues

Malaysia’s low tariffs reflect its export-oriented development approach. However,
there are non-tariff and technical barriers imposed to protect the growth of
domestic industries. Several of the key barriers include:
• Import restrictions on motor vehicles – The system of approved
permits (AP) implements a cap on the total number of vehicles that can
be imported. USTR argues that the system is stifling competition with little
benefit to consumers. That said, exemptions were made, for instance in
2023, Tesla Motors was allowed to sell its vehicles without the AP rules
under the Malaysia’s BEV Global Leaders initiative.
• Intellectual property protection - Especially the continued occurrence
of the selling of counterfeit goods. A review by the US Trade

6
 ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

Representative highlighted Petaling Street in Kuala Lumpur as one of the

locations notorious for counterfeit and pirated goods.
• Government procurement – Foreign companies bidding for government
tenders do not have the same opportunities as some local companies to
compete for contracts. USTR argues that Malaysia is not a signatory to
the WTO Agreement on Government Procurement which ensures open,
fair and transparent conditions of competition in procurement.
• Limits to ownership – Although Malaysia has taken steps to liberalise
foreign investment policies, requirements for local equity participation
remain for selected sectors which only allow foreign ownership of up to
70% (30% local partner).
• Higher taxation - Cigarettes in particular have been subject to a 10%
Sales and Services Tax (SST) since Sep 2018, higher than the 6-8%
accorded for other goods. This tax increase was implemented after the
Goods and Services Tax (GST) was replaced by SST.
• Labour rights - Malaysia has set a target to eliminate forced labour
practices by 2030. However, there are allegations of migrant worker
abuse. Migrant workers are employed widely in Malaysia’s manufacturing
and plantation industries.

Figure 7: Malaysia’s 2023 exports to the US are largely in Figure 8: …which also reflects the majority of the trade surplus
electrical machinery and electronics… Malaysia has with the US
US$ bn Malaysia Trade Balance with the US by Products
45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

-5
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Electrical Machinery & Equipment Machinery & Mechanical Appliances
Optical, Photographic, Medical Instruments Furniture; Bedding, Mattresses, Buildings
Animal or Vegetable Fats & Oils Cocoa & Cocoa Preparations
Wood & Articles of Wood, Wood Charcoal Toys, Games & Sports
Special Classification Provisions Others

SOURCES: OEC, CGSI RESEARCH SOURCES: CEIC, CGSI RESEARCH

Thailand
High barrier for agricultural goods
According to WTO, Thailand’s average MFN weighted tariff rate was 6.3% in
2023. However, we note a huge disparity between product types. The MFN tariff
rate was significantly higher for agricultural products at 37.6%, versus 4.4% for
non-agricultural products.

Within the agriculture segment, elevated tariffs were seen in meat, rice, dairy,
eggs, vegetables, and processed foods. We think the emphasis on high tariffs for
these products is to protect its domestic industry from foreign competition and
promote its development. The sector has always played a large role in the
economy and linked to a significant voter base. For non-agriculture, high tariffs
are seen in sectors such as automobile and textiles. Thailand also imposes higher
tariffs on sin products involving alcohol and tobacco.

7
 ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

Apart from import tariffs, several other tax-related charges on imports were
implemented by the authorities:
• Excise tax is levied on imported alcohol, tobacco, and items considered
luxuries or having an environmental impact (i.e. fuel, perfume, yachts, and
appliances). The tax rate varies but can go as high as 40% on selected
goods.
• Value Added Tax (VAT) on imported low value goods was
implemented on 19 Jun 2024, at a rate of 10%, (currently reduced to 7%
until 30 Sep 2025). This tax were extended to goods, both internally
produced and imports from abroad, as well as services, valued at
THB1,500 or less. This was aimed at reducing imports of low value items
purchased mostly on e-commerce platforms.
• Import permit fees (charged as food safety inspection fees) were also
added particularly for shipments of uncooked meat at THB7 per kg and
THB3 per kg for non-food or feed. USTR argues that the high tariff on
meat is unfairly aimed at protecting Thai domestic livestock producers,
particularly the local pork and poultry industry.

Figure 9: Breakdown of tariff by type of product

US-Thailand Tariff comparison (Effectively Applied tariff, weighted, 2023)
50.0 Meat

45.0

Preparations Of Vegetables, Fruit,

40.0 Nuts

35.0

Carpets And Other Textile Floor

30.0 Vehicles Other Than Railway Apparel And Clothing, Knitted
Coverings
Thailand tariff

Apparel And Clothing, Not Knitted

Preparations Of Meat, & Seafood Footwear, Gaiters
25.0 Animal Or Vegetable Fats Thailand tariff is
higher than the US
20.0 Essential Oils, Perfumery, Cosmetic Articles Of Leather
Miscellaneous Edible Preparations
Prepared Feathers And Down
15.0
Live Animals
Food Residues And Waste
US tariff is higher
10.0 Cocoa Preparations
Impregnated, Coated Textile than Thailand
Special Woven Fabrics
Soap, Organic Surface-Active Agents Knitted Or Crocheted Fabrics
5.0 Man-Made Staple Fibres Man-Made Filaments
Wool, Animal Hair Sugar Confectionery
Vegetable Plaiting Materials
Fish and seafood Cereals
0.0 Cotton
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0
US tariff
Chart excludes product outliers. Ful relative comparison is available on Fig 5,
SOURCES: WITS, CGSI RESEARCH

Potential trade issues

Trade disputes with the US which involve non-tariff and technical barriers include:
• Intellectual property protection – Thailand is on the watchlist for
USTR’s “Special 301” Report which is an annual review of the global state
of IP protection and enforcement. In addition, counterfeit products are
also prevalent with MBK Mall in Bangkok being one of the notorious
markets cited by the USTR.
• Import licences – Imposed to ensure product compliance with national
standards. The licence is applicable to a number of products such as fuel,
pharmaceuticals, textile, agricultural items, etc. In addition, the import of
certain minerals, weapons and ammunition, as well as works of art is
subject to special permits from the relevant ministries.
• Price controls - The government sets price ceilings for certain goods and
services, including agricultural staples (such as sugar, pork, cooking oil,
sugary condensed milk, and flour), liquefied petroleum gas, and
medicines.

8
 ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

• Investment barriers - Majority foreign-owned entities and non-Thai

nationals are prohibited from holding more than 50% ownership in many
sectors, while sectors such as telecommunications; transportation;
fiduciary functions; banking involving depository functions; and
exploitation of natural resources are only reserved for Thai nationals.
• GSP suspension still in effect – On 30 Oct 2020, the US partially
suspended Thailand from duty-free treatment of certain goods under
Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) programme citing the lack of
equitable and reasonable market access for US pork products and lack
of progress on workers’ rights. The GSP revocation covers one-sixth of
Thailand’s GSP trade in 2019, representing US$817m in the US imports
and is still in effect.
• Dumping and market flooding – Thailand, along with Malaysia,
Cambodia, and Vietnam were slapped with higher tariffs on solar panel.
The American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee
accused Chinese solar panel makers with factories in the ASEAN region
of dumping products into the market, causing global prices to collapse.

Figure 10: Thailand 2023 exports to the US are varied with the Figure 11: Thailand’s trade surplus with the US is in electrical,
majority in electrical and machineries machineries, and rubber products
US$ bn Thailand Trade Balance with the US by Products
50

40

30

20

10

0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Preparations of Meat & Seafood Pearls, Precious Metal, Imitation Jewelry, Coin
Optical, Photographic, Medical Instruments Articles of Iron or Steel
Furniture; Bedding, Mattresses, Buildings Vehicles Other Than Railway
Rubber & Articles Thereof Machinery & Mechanical Appliances
Electrical Machinery & Equipment Others

SOURCES: OEC, CGSI RESEARCH SOURCES: CEIC, CGSI RESEARCH

Indonesia
High non-tariff barriers
Based on WTO’s data, Indonesia’s average MFN weighted tariff rate was 5.3% in
2023. The MFN tariff rate was slightly higher for agricultural products at 5.8%,
while non-agricultural products recorded an average tariff of 5.2%.

By product, tariffs were higher for selected goods that compete with local
industries. These include items such as vehicles, tea, plastic products, leather
products, textiles, ceramics, and a range of agricultural goods. Similar to other
ASEAN countries, Indonesia imposes high tariffs on alcoholic drinks and
cigarettes.

Apart from tariffs, all imports into Indonesia including personal items are subject
to Value-Added Tax (VAT) at 11%, Excise tax (on alcohol & tobacco), and Sales
Tax on Luxury Goods (STLG) at a rate of 10-75%. In addition, withholding tax on
imports were also applied for certain goods under the Regulation 110/2018 Article
22. The tax covers 1,147 consumer goods with a rate of 2.5% to 10% imposed on
items such as consumables, luxury goods, and export mining commodities.

9
 ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

Figure 12: Breakdown of tariff by type of product

US-Indonesia Tariff comparison (Effectively Applied tariff, weighted, 2023)
40.0
Beverages, Spirits And Vinegar

35.0
Miscellaneous Edible Preparations

30.0

Manufactures Of Straw
25.0 Carpets And Other Textile Floor Apparel And Clothing, Knitted
Apparel And Clothing, Not Knitted
Coverings
Indonesia tariff

Indonesia tariff is
Essential Oils, Perfumery, Cosmetic
20.0 Preparations Of Meat, & Seafood higher than the US
Articles Of Leather
Ceramic Products
15.0 Furskins And Artificial Fur Other Made-Up Textile Articles
Prepared Feathers And Down
Toys, Games And Sports Requisites Knitted Or Crocheted Fabrics
Man-Made Filaments
Headgear And Parts Thereof Wool, Animal Hair
10.0
Articles Of Iron Or Steel Special Woven Fabrics
Impregnated, Coated Textile US tariff is higher
Plastics
Nickel And Articles Thereof Footwear, Gaiters than Indonesia
5.0 Meat Tobacco
Pharmaceutical Products Cereals
Food Residues And Waste
Inorganic Chemicals
0.0 Oil Seeds Cotton
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0
US tariff
Chart excludes product outliers. Ful relative comparison is available on Fig 5
SOURCES: WITS, CGSI RESEARCH

Potential trade issues

According to the WTO, Indonesia has been amending its import requirements over
the years to comply with the organisation’s rules. However, trade restrictions
continue to remain burdensome. A few technical barriers are:
• Import restrictions – Importers face numerous requirements by the
government aimed at restricting the shipment of goods and to prioritise
domestic production. For instance:
o Import licences are issued based on country’s Commodity Balance
(supply/demand ratio) involving products such as sugar, rice, fish,
meat, salt, corn etc. The basis for the balance is determined at the
ministerial level before the start of a new fiscal year.
o Importers must have an import identification number (API). The type
of API determines whether an importer is allowed to utilise the goods
for their own processing, or for general trading purposes.
o Certain products are barred from import and export across
categories like forestry, agricultural, mining, cultural heritage
products, scrap metal, and fertilizers.
o The state-owned procurement body the Bureau of Logistics (BULOG)
maintains exclusive authority to import rice, feed corn, and soybean
for government food reserves. It was aimed at maintaining domestic
price stability but limits access to the private sector.
• Local content requirement – Products sold in Indonesia must meet a
certain percentage of local content, with a minimum threshold of 20% for
products such as manufacturing, automotive, pharmacies,
telecommunications, and electric vehicles. Failure to comply led to an
import ban on Apple in 2024 whereby the Indonesian Ministry of Industry
blocked imports of Apple’s iPhone 16 and Apple Watch Series 10.
• Intellectual property protection – Indonesia was among the top seven
countries designated as Priority Watchlist under USTR’s “Special 301”
Report for widespread piracy and counterfeiting, as well as concerns
regarding intellectual property enforcement. In addition, Mangga Dua in
Jakarta was cited as a prime location for counterfeiting by the USTR.

10
 ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

Figure 13: Indonesia 2023 exports to the US are centred on Figure 14: Indonesia trade surplus with the US is the largest in
electricals, textiles, palm oil and raw commodities food products, machineries, and electricals
US$ bn Indonesia Trade Balance with the US by Products
70

50

30

10

-10

2017
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Others Commodities and Transactions, nes
Office Machinery and Data Processing Telecomm, & Sound Recording
Food and Live Animals Animal and Vegetable Oils & Fats
Manufactured Goods Electrical Machinery, Apparatus & Appliances
Machinery and Transport Equipment Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles
SOURCES: OEC, CGSI RESEARCH SOURCES: CEIC, CGSI RESEARCH

Vietnam
Under the spotlight
According to the WTO, Vietnam’s average MFN weighted tariff rate was 5.1% in
2023. The tariff for agricultural products is more than double that of non-agriculture
at 10.3% versus 4.5% respectively. The majority of Vietnams’ tariffs are largely in
the low range categories (i.e. less than 15%). However, there is a list of items that
have high tariffs, including various agriculture products, leather goods, and textiles.
In addition, luxury goods such as cars and perfumes are subject to higher tariffs
alongside sin products such as alcohol and tobacco.

Besides tariffs, imports are also subject to added tax which includes:
• Value-Added Tax (VAT) which can be 0%, 5%, or 10%. Certain goods,
such as daily necessities without local production are exempt.
• Special Consumption Tax (SCT) is imposed on what are considered
luxury items. Products subjected to SCT are also subjected to VAT.
• Environmental Protection Tax (EPT) focuses on the import’s harmful
effect on the environment. EPT rates vary for each commodity from
VND500/kg for restricted chemicals to VND50,000/kg for plastic bags.

Potential trade issues

Vietnam’s trade issues are as follows:
• Barriers to digital trade - Access to the Internet is limited through a
number of state-controlled providers which restricts access to websites
that it deems inappropriate. Digital restrictions are imposed on gaming
and social media industries, and also includes data centre and cloud
services.
• Investment barriers – According to USTR, Vietnam imposes statutory
restrictions on foreign ownership in certain sectors, such as joint
partnerships and projects in banking, network infrastructure services,
non-infrastructure telecommunications services, transportation, and
energy.
• Intellectual property protection – Vietnam remained on the Watch List
in the 2023 Special 301 Report. According to the USTR, capacity and

11
 ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

resource constraints, corruption, and poor coordination among

enforcement agencies continue to pose challenges to effective
enforcement. Piracy and sales of counterfeit goods online and in physical
markets continue to be a concern too.

Figure 15: Breakdown of tariff by type of product

US-Vietnam Tariff comparison (effectively applied tariff, weighted, 2023)
30.0
Coffee, Tea, and Spices
Vehicles Other Than Railway
Umbrellas, Sun Umbrellas, Walking
25.0 Glass And Glassware
Furskins And Artificial Fur Sticks
Beverages, Spirits And Vinegar Vietnam tariff is
Articles Of Leather
higher than the US
Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles Preparations Of Meat, & Seafood Cocoa Preparations
20.0 Apparel And Clothing, Not Knitted
Cork And Articles Of Cork
Miscellaneous Articles Of Base Metal
Meat Ceramic Products
Vietnam tariff

Animal Or Vegetable Fats

15.0 Miscellaneous Edible Preparations
Furniture; Bedding, Mattresses US tariff is higher
Other Made-Up Textile Articles
than Vietnam
Edible Fruit And Nuts Special Woven Fabrics Knitted Or Crocheted Fabrics
Fish and seafood Essential Oils, Perfumery, Cosmetic
10.0 Soap, Organic Surface-Active Agents
Toys, Games And Sports Requisites
Printed Books, Newspapers Explosives; Pyrotechnic Products;
Aluminium And Articles Thereof Matches Footwear, Gaiters
Lac; Gums, Resins And Other Natural Or Cultured Pearls
5.0
Vegetable Saps
Dairy, Eggs, Honey Sugar Confectionery
Plastics
Live Animals Miscellaneous Chemical Products
0.0 Food Residues And Waste Cereals Cotton
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0
US tariff
Chart excludes product outliers. Ful relative comparison is available on Fig 5
SOURCES: WITS, CGSI RESEARCH

Figure 16: Vietnam exports electrical, machineries, textiles and Figure 17: Vietnam’s majority of trade surplus with the US is in
manufactured goods to the US (2023) electricals, machineries, and footwear
US$ bn Vietnam Trade Balance with the US by Products
120

100

80

60

40

20

0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024

Others Articles of Leather & Harness, Handbags

Rubber & Articles Thereof Plastics & Articles Thereof
Apparel & Clothing, Not Knitted or Crocheted Apparel & Clothing, Knitted or Crocheted
Footwear, Gaiters & Parts of Such Articles Furniture; Bedding, Mattresses, Buildings
Machinery & Mechanical Appliances Electrical Machinery & Equipment

SOURCES: OEC, CGSI RESEARCH SOURCES: CEIC, CGSI RESEARCH

Singapore
Free trade champion
Among the ASEAN countries, Singapore imposes the lowest tariffs. According to
WTO, Singapore’s average Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) applied & weighted tariff
rate was 0.0% in 2023. The MFN tariff rate for agricultural products was at 0.6%,
while non-agricultural products recorded an average tariff of 0.0%.

12
 ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

The city-state free-trade-agreement (FTA) which it entered with the US in Jan

2004 effectively eliminates tariffs for nearly all of Singapore’s exports to the US
and vice-versa. According to the US International Trade Administration, the FTA
has opened up access to Singapore’s services and investment market, increased
opportunities for government procurement, enhanced intellectual property
protection, alongside binding tariff rates at zero. Even without the FTA,
Singapore’s MFN tariff is technically nil. However, the zero tariff is offset by higher
excise duty on selected products. These items include fuel products, motor
vehicles, alcoholic drinks and tobacco products. Excise duties are implemented
for fuel and vehicles aimed at domestic environmental objectives. Meanwhile,
alcoholic products such as beer, wine, and other undenatured ethyl alcohol are
subject to non ad-valorem excise duty. Similarly, tobacco and cigarettes are
subject to significant excise duty per gram, making it the highest tobacco taxes in
the world.

Potential trade issues

With a free and open market, Singapore has limited trade disputes:
• Transshipments of restricted goods – Singapore’s designated free
trade zones (FTZ) aim to facilitate transhipment activities. However, the
lack of regulation makes it prone to large quantities of illicit and counterfeit
goods. The latest issue over the shipment of banned NVIDIA chips to
China through Singapore in early 2025 exposes this vulnerability.
• Currency manipulator monitoring list – The US Treasury’s latest semi-
annual report released in Nov 2024 declared that no US trading partners
have been classified as currency manipulators. However, Singapore is
being placed on the monitoring list due to its material current account
surplus and one-sided intervention in the foreign exchange. Singapore
shares the classification alongside countries such as China, Japan, South
Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Germany.

Figure 18: The largest shipments from Singapore to the US in Figure 19: Singapore has a somewhat neutral trade balance with
2023 are in pharmaceutical and chemical products the US
US$ bn Singapore Trade Balance with the US by Products
30

20

10

-10

-20

-30
2009

2016

2023
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

2024

Preparations of Meat & Seafood Fish & Seafood

Glass & Glassware Cereals, Flour, Starch or Milk
Optical, Photographic, Medical Instruments Special Classification Provisions
Miscellaneous Edible Preparations Organic Chemicals
Pharmaceutical Products Others
SOURCES: OEC, CGSI RESEARCH SOURCES: CEIC, CGSI RESEARCH

13
ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

What can we expect next?

Several red flags
The previous section highlights commonality in the type of goods involved, in
particular the area of agricultural goods, vehicles, sin products (alcohol & tobacco),
textiles, and luxury goods (perfumes, carpets, etc.). We think these are the
segments that could likely be targeted by the US authorities.

Moreover, while tariffs can appear to be low, the excessively high excise duty or
VAT ensures such products are regulated out of the importing country. In the case
of Singapore for instance, excise duty makes its cigarettes among the most
expensive globally. Import permits, licences and restricted lists also essentially
keep foreign products from entering a market.

In addition, trade issues unrelated to tariffs could also come to the fore. Lack of
intellectual property protection, prevalent sales of counterfeit goods, as well as the
need to open up more sectors for foreign participation could be the issues
highlighted ahead, in our view.

Thus far, the US’s focus is elsewhere

If retaliation were to occur, we suspect the US tariff policy will initially focus on
countries it has made explicit references to. The factsheet accompanying the US
memorandum on Reciprocal Trade and Tariffs policy identifies specific countries
that the US views as failing to provide reciprocal treatment.
• Brazil (ethanol) - The US tariff on ethanol is 2.5% vs. Brazil at 18%.
• India (agriculture & vehicles) - The US average MFN tariff on
agricultural goods is 5% vs. India’s at 39%. India also charges a 100%
tariff on US motorcycles, compared to a 2.4% tariff on Indian motorcycles.
• The EU (seafood & vehicles) - The EU bans shellfish exports from 48 of
the US’s states, despite committing in 2020 to expedite approvals for
shellfish exports. The EU also imposes a 10% tariff on imported cars. Yet
the US only imposes a 2.5% tariff on cars imported from the EU.
• Canada & France (Digital Services Tax) - The memorandum highlights
unfair digital taxation in Canada and France, where American firms are
taxed more than US$500m annually in each country, costing US
businesses more than US$2bn per year.

Tariffs by itself would not work long term …

We reiterate our longstanding view that the threat of tariffs is only a strategy for
the US President to compel trading partners to give the US a better trade deal,
one that is more favourable to the US. We think tariffs by itself are unlikely to last
on a long-term basis because:
• Trade re-routing will nullify any unilateral tariff imposed on a specific
country. The first trade war (2018-20) exemplifies this. Higher tariffs
imposed on China only led to other nations including ASEAN countries
taking up its slack. While we see China’s trade surplus to the US has
declined, it has now been replaced by a larger ASEAN trade surplus.
• Trump would not risk inflation spiking in the US nor an economic
recession. The recent US ISM Manufacturing survey for Feb 2025 already
showed higher reading in the prices subindex, while early estimates of US
1Q25 GDP pointed towards a sharp contraction. If this happens, it could
prompt President Trump to backtrack on his tariff stance.
• A long legal tussle will likely be the outcome as the unilateral tariff
violates the WTO’s MFN rule (where the same level of tariff should be
given to all trading partners). Trump also broke the USMCA (United
States-Mexico-Canada) agreement which has been ratified by Congress.
Trump’s use of emergency measures to justify his actions could also be

14
ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

challenged. To some extent, potential higher domestic inflation, fall in

approval ratings, or economic stagnation could lead to a slew of legal
battles on Trump’s home soil.

… unless it can draw concessions

The threats are already working to some extent, in our view. The US trade partners
have reacted to the grievances highlighted by the US through some form of policy
reactions. Some policy responses include:
• To stem cross-border drug trade, Canada unveiled a US$1.3bn plan to
secure the border and appointed a fentanyl czar; while Mexico announced
that it would immediately reinforce its border with another 10,000 National
Guard troops.
• India have signalled that tariffs will be lowered for the US products of
interest such as bourbon, motorcycles, ICT products, metals, and medical
devices, as well as enhancing market access for US agricultural products,
like alfalfa hay and duck meat.
• Brazil is reducing tariffs to zero for selected foodstuffs such as meat
(currently: 10.8%); coffee (9%); sugar (14%); sardines (32%); biscuits
(16.2%), pasta (14.4%), etc. An import quota for palm oil will more than
double this year.
• Germany is seeking to bump up its defence spending significantly. It spent
2.1% of GDP on defence in 2024, just above the 2% requirement as a
NATO member. President Trump is asking NATO members to spend at
least 5% of GDP on the alliance.

ASEAN mitigating tariff risk

Vietnam is already in talks to sign a trade pact with the US to allow for more
purchases of the US’s goods. Media reports highlighted Vietnam’s intention to
purchase products such as LNG and to possibly revise duties on several imports
such as ethanol, LNG, and agriculture products. Among the ASEAN members,
Vietnam has the largest and growing trade surplus with the US, which exposes it
to higher risk of retaliation (Fig 22).

Meanwhile, Indonesia has a history of trade disputes with the US on several

issues potentially putting itself within the US administration’s list of trade violators,
in our view. Local news channels are highlighting Indonesia’s intention to seek
some form of agreement before any retaliations take place. Similarly, we think
Thailand could take proactive measures to placate the US, especially on its issues
with Thailand’s high tariff on agriculture.

While we see Malaysia and Singapore are lower on President Trump’s list of
priorities – considering both countries’ low average tariff and smaller contribution
to the US trade deficit, there is likelihood that Malaysia and Singapore could come
up with their own set of strategies to mitigate US tariff risks. Local news have
stated that Malaysia are engaging its US ambassador. Meanwhile, Singapore’s
ardent investigations into alleged fraud linked to the movement of servers
containing restricted Nvidia chips into China via Singapore could be a sign of its
seriousness in addressing its shortcomings.

There is still upside

Despite the high uncertainty of policy outcomes ahead, we believe there is still a
possibility of a positive outcome for ASEAN. If the concessions by the US trading
partners are extended to all WTO members, the market for certain goods would
expand globally. In other words, President Trump’s action might make the world
even more globalised instead of hampering it. This could benefit everyone
including ASEAN.

15
 ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

We expect more volatility ahead as tariff threats intensify. But we also see the
possibility that the US may not have to raise tariffs at all. Thus far, the majority of
the US trade partners are ironing out some form of concession or bilateral
agreement with the US. All these are happening even before the reciprocal tariff
takes place.

Figure 20: ASEAN-5 accounts for 5.8% of US exports share Figure 21: ASEAN trade balance is growing at the expense of
China
Share US export share by trading partners US$ bn
US trade balance with China and ASEAN (unstacked)
100% 0

Thousands
90% -5

38.1%, Others -10

80%
-15
70%
-20
60% 5.8%, ASEAN-5 -25
3.9%, Germany
50% 4.1%, Japan -30
4.6%, Netherlands
40% 8.8%, China -35

30% -40
17.0%, Mexico
-45
20%
12/2000
11/2001
10/2002

12/2011
11/2012
10/2013

12/2022
11/2023
10/2024
1/2000

9/2003
8/2004
7/2005
6/2006
5/2007
4/2008
3/2009
2/2010
1/2011

9/2014
8/2015
7/2016
6/2017
5/2018
4/2019
3/2020
2/2021
1/2022
10% 17.8%, Canada

0% China+HK ASEAN

SOURCES: CEIC, CGSI RESEARCH SOURCES: CEIC, CGSI RESEARCH

Figure 22: Within ASEAN, Vietnam recorded the largest trade Figure 23: Malaysia and Singapore have the least trade exposure
deficit with the US in 2024 to the US, while Vietnam has the largest (2023)
US$ bn % share
US trade balance with ASEAN members ASEAN export share by destination
40
Thousands

100%
20
90%
0 33.9
80% 39.1 37.8 42.0 38.4 43.4
-20 70%
-40 60% 9.2

-60 50% 20.4 23.5 15.1 12.3

29.5
27.7
40%
-80 6.4 11.3
9.1 27.4
30% 9.0 7.9
-100 7.3
20% 17.0 15.6
11.3 9.3
-120 25.1
10% 17.3
13.5 13.8 12.0 14.6
-140 0%
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Philippines Vietnam

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 China US EU27 ASEAN Others

SOURCES: CEIC, CGSI RESEARCH SOURCES: CEIC, CGSI RESEARCH

16
 ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

Figure 24: CGSI’s key macro data and forecasts

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025F 2026F
Real GDP (% yoy)
Malaysia 4.8 4.4 -5.5 3.3 8.9 3.6 5.1 4.6 5.0
Indonesia 5.2 5.0 -2.1 3.7 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.1
Singapore 3.7 1.1 -4.1 7.6 3.6 1.1 4.0 2.5 1.8
Thailand 4.2 2.2 -6.2 1.6 2.6 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.8
Headline inflation, average (% yoy)
Malaysia 1.0 0.7 -1.1 2.5 3.4 2.5 1.8 2.3 2.2
Indonesia 3.2 2.8 2.0 1.6 4.2 3.7 2.3 2.1 2.8
Singapore 0.4 0.6 -0.2 2.3 6.1 4.8 2.4 2.0 1.3
Thailand 1.1 0.7 -0.8 1.2 6.1 1.3 0.4 1.0 1.2
Headline inflation, end-period (% yoy)
Malaysia 0.2 1.0 -1.4 3.2 3.8 1.5 1.7 2.8 2.1
Indonesia 3.1 2.6 1.7 1.9 5.5 2.8 1.6 2.7 2.9
Singapore 0.5 0.8 0.0 4.0 6.5 3.7 1.8 1.7 0.7
Thailand 0.4 0.9 -0.3 2.2 5.9 -0.8 1.2 1.0 1.0
Unemployment rate, end-period (%)
Malaysia 3.3 3.3 4.8 4.3 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1
Indonesia 5.2 5.2 7.1 6.5 5.9 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.5
Singapore 1.9 2.0 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1
Thailand 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
Malaysia -3.7 -3.4 -6.2 -6.4 -5.6 -5.0 -4.1 -3.8 -3.4
Indonesia -1.8 -2.2 -6.1 -4.6 -2.4 -1.7 -2.2 -2.5 -2.7
Singapore 0.7 0.2 -10.8 0.3 0.3 -0.5 0.9 0.0 0.2
Thailand -3.0 -3.0 -5.2 -4.8 -3.5 -3.6 -3.8 -4.0 -3.5
Current account balance (% of GDP)
Malaysia 2.2 3.5 4.2 3.9 3.1 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4
Indonesia -2.9 -2.7 -0.4 0.3 1.0 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.2
Singapore 15.2 14.5 16.6 19.8 18.0 19.8 19.5 16.3 14.2
Thailand 5.6 7.0 4.2 -2.1 -3.5 1.5 2.3 2.5 2.8
International reserves (US$ bn)
Malaysia 101.4 104.0 108.2 116.9 114.7 113.5 116.2 114.3 113.8
Indonesia 120.7 129.2 135.9 144.9 137.2 146.4 155.7 154.7 160.7
Singapore 287.7 279.5 362.3 417.9 287.5 347.6 371.4 380.0 390.0
Thailand 205.6 224.3 258.1 246.0 216.6 220.0 210.9 205.0 200.0
Policy rate, end-period (%)
Malaysia 3.25 3.00 1.75 1.75 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Indonesia 6.00 5.00 3.75 3.50 5.50 6.00 6.00 5.00 4.50
Singapore* - - - - - - - - -
Thailand 1.75 1.25 0.50 0.50 1.25 2.50 2.25 1.75 1.75
Currency, end-period (per US$)
Ringgit, MYR 4.13 4.09 4.02 4.17 4.40 4.59 4.47 4.25 4.30
Rupiah, IDR 14,481 13,901 14,105 14,278 15,592 15,439 16,162 15,750 15,200
Singdollar, SGD 1.36 1.35 1.32 1.35 1.34 1.32 1.37 1.32 1.31
Thai baht, THB 32.55 29.97 29.95 33.41 34.77 34.14 34.09 34.25 33.75
*Monetary policy in Singapore is centred on the exchange rate, rather than interest rate

SOURCES: CGSI RESEARCH ESTIMATES, BLOOMBERG, CEIC

17
 ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

DISCLAIMER
The content of this report (including the views and opinions expressed therein, and the information comprised therein) has been prepared by and
belongs to CGS International. Reports relating to a specific geographical area are produced and distributed by the corresponding CGS International
entity as listed in the table below.
This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state,
country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
By accepting this report, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that he is entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions set
forth below and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein (including the “Restrictions on Distributions” set out below). Any failure to
comply with these limitations may constitute a violation of law. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential.
No part of this report may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means; or (ii) redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CGS International.
The information contained in this research report is prepared from data believed to be correct and reliable at the time of issue of this report. CGS
International may or may not issue regular reports on the subject matter of this report at any frequency and may cease to do so or change the periodicity
of reports at any time. CGS International has no obligation to update this report in the event of a material change to the information contained in this
report. CGS International does not accept any obligation to (i) check or ensure that the contents of this report remain current, reliable or relevant, (ii)
ensure that the content of this report constitutes all the information a prospective investor may require, (iii) ensure the adequacy, accuracy,
completeness, reliability or fairness of any views, opinions and information, and accordingly, CGS International, its affiliates and related corporations
shall not be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of
profits and damages) of any reliance thereon or usage thereof. In particular, CGS International disclaims all responsibility and liability for the views and
opinions set out in this report.
Unless otherwise specified, this report is based upon sources which CGS International considers to be reasonable. Such sources will, unless otherwise
specified, for market data, be market data and prices available from the main stock exchange or market where the relevant security is listed, or, where
appropriate, any other market. Information on the accounts and business of company(ies) will generally be based on published statements of the
company(ies), information disseminated by regulatory information services, other publicly available information and information resulting from our
research.
Whilst every effort is made to ensure that statements of facts made in this report are accurate, all estimates, projections, forecasts, expressions of
opinion and other subjective judgments contained in this report are based on assumptions considered to be reasonable as of the date of the document
in which they are contained and must not be construed as a representation that the matters referred to therein will occur. Past performance is not a
reliable indicator of future performance. The value of investments may go down as well as up and those investing may, depending on the investments
in question, lose more than the initial investment. No report shall constitute an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of CGS International or any of its
affiliates to any person to buy or sell any investments.
CGS International, its affiliates and related corporations and/or their respective directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own
or have positions in securities of the company(ies) covered in this research report or any securities related thereto and may from time to time add to
or dispose of, or may be materially interested in, any such securities. Further, CGS International, its affiliates and their respective related corporations
do and seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this research report and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed
an underwriting commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also
perform or seek to perform significant investment banking, advisory, underwriting or placement services for or relating to such company(ies) as well
as solicit such investment, advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in this report.
CGS International or its affiliates may enter into an agreement with the company(ies) covered in this report relating to the production of research
reports. CGS International may disclose the contents of this report to the company(ies) covered by it and may have amended the contents of this
report following such disclosure.
The analyst responsible for the production of this report hereby certifies that the views expressed herein accurately and exclusively reflect his or her
personal views and opinions about any and all of the issuers or securities analysed in this report and were prepared independently and autonomously.
No part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations(s) or view(s)
in this report. The analyst(s) who prepared this research report is prohibited from receiving any compensation, incentive or bonus based on specific
investment banking transactions or for providing a specific recommendation for, or view of, a particular company. Information barriers and other
arrangements may be established where necessary to prevent conflicts of interests arising. However, the analyst(s) may receive compensation that is
based on his/their coverage of company(ies) in the performance of his/their duties or the performance of his/their recommendations and the research
personnel involved in the preparation of this report may also participate in the solicitation of the businesses as described above. In reviewing this
research report, an investor should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest.
Additional information is, subject to the duties of confidentiality, available on request.
Reports relating to a specific geographical area are produced by the corresponding CGS International entity as listed in the table below. The term
“CGS International” shall denote, where appropriate, the relevant entity distributing or disseminating the report in the particular jurisdiction referenced
below, or, in every other case except as otherwise stated herein, CGS International Securities Pte. Ltd. and its affiliates, subsidiaries and related
corporations.
Jurisdiction CGS International Entity Regulated by
Hong Kong CGS International Securities Hong Kong Limited Securities and Futures Commission Hong Kong
Indonesia PT CGS International Sekuritas Indonesia Financial Services Authority of Indonesia
Malaysia CGS International Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. (formerly known Securities Commission Malaysia
as CGS-CIMB Securities Sdn. Bhd.)
Singapore CGS International Securities Singapore Pte. Ltd. Monetary Authority of Singapore
South Korea CGS International Securities Hong Kong Limited, Korea Branch Financial Services Commission and Financial Supervisory Service
Thailand CGS International Securities (Thailand) Co. Ltd. Securities and Exchange Commission Thailand

18
 ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

This report does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. Neither CGS International nor any of its affiliates
make any guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness, reliability or fairness of any such
information and opinion contained in this report. Neither CGS International nor any of its affiliates nor their related corporations shall be liable in any
manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any
reliance thereon or usage thereof.
This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation amongst CGS International’s clients
generally and does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may
receive this report. The information and opinions in this report are not and should not be construed or considered as an offer, recommendation or
solicitation to buy or sell the subject securities, related investments or other financial instruments or any derivative instrument, or any rights pertaining
thereto.
Investors are advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this research report, consider their own individual
investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs and consult their own professional and financial advisers as to the legal, business,
financial, tax and other aspects before participating in any transaction in respect of the securities of company(ies) covered in this research report.
The securities of such company(ies) may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors.
Restrictions on Distributions
Australia: Despite anything in this report to the contrary, this research is provided in Australia by CGS International Securities Singapore Pte. Ltd.
(”CGS SG”) and CGS International Securities Hong Kong Limited (“CGS HK”). This research is only available in Australia to persons who are “wholesale
clients” (within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and is supplied solely for the use of such wholesale clients and shall not be distributed
or passed on to any other person. You represent and warrant that if you are in Australia, you are a “wholesale client”. This research is of a general
nature only and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of the individual recipient. CGS SG and CGS
HK do not hold, and are not required to hold an Australian financial services license. CGS SG and CGS HK rely on “passporting” exemptions for
entities appropriately licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (under ASIC Class Order 03/1102) and the Securities and Futures Commission
in Hong Kong (under ASIC Class Order 03/1103).
Canada: This research report has not been prepared in accordance with the disclosure requirements of Dealer Member Rule 3400 – Research
Restrictions and Disclosure Requirements of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. For any research report distributed by CIBC,
further disclosures related to CIBC conflicts of interest can be found at https://researchcentral.cibcwm.com .
China: For the purpose of this report, the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”) does not include the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the
Macau Special Administrative Region or Taiwan. The distributor of this report has not been approved or licensed by the China Securities Regulatory
Commission or any other relevant regulatory authority or governmental agency in the PRC. This report contains only marketing information. The
distribution of this report is not an offer to buy or sell to any person within or outside PRC or a solicitation to any person within or outside of PRC to
buy or sell any instruments described herein. This report is being issued outside the PRC to a limited number of institutional investors and may not be
provided to any person other than the original recipient and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose.
France: Only qualified investors within the meaning of French law shall have access to this report. This report shall not be considered as an offer to
subscribe to, or used in connection with, any offer for subscription or sale or marketing or direct or indirect distribution of financial instruments and it is
not intended as a solicitation for the purchase of any financial instrument.
Germany: This report is only directed at persons who are professional investors as defined in sec 31a(2) of the German Securities Trading Act
(WpHG). This publication constitutes research of a non-binding nature on the market situation and the investment instruments cited here at the time
of the publication of the information.
The current prices/yields in this issue are based upon closing prices from Bloomberg as of the day preceding publication. Please note that neither the
German Federal Financial Supervisory Agency (BaFin), nor any other supervisory authority exercises any control over the content of this report.
Hong Kong: This report is issued and distributed in Hong Kong by CGS HK which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission
for Type 1 (dealing in securities) and Type 4 (advising on securities) activities. Any investors wishing to purchase or otherwise deal in the securities
covered in this report should contact the Head of Sales at CGS HK. The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof
and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority apply to a
recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CGS HK has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this
research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CGS HK.
Indonesia: This report is issued and distributed by PT CGS International Sekuritas Indonesia (“CGS ID”). The views and opinions in this research
report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. CGS ID has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research
report. This report is for private circulation only to clients of CGS ID. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed in Indonesia or to any
Indonesian citizens wherever they are domiciled or to Indonesian residents except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and
regulations.
This research report is not an offer of securities in Indonesia. The securities referred to in this research report have not been registered with the
Financial Services Authority (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan) pursuant to relevant capital market laws and regulations, and may not be offered or sold within
the territory of the Republic of Indonesia or to Indonesian citizens through a public offering or in circumstances which constitute an offer within the
meaning of the Indonesian capital market law and regulations.
Ireland: CGS International is not an investment firm authorised in the Republic of Ireland and no part of this document should be construed as CGS
International acting as, or otherwise claiming or representing to be, an investment firm authorised in the Republic of Ireland.
Malaysia: This report is distributed in Malaysia by CGS International Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. (formerly known as CGS-CIMB Securities Sdn.
Bhd.) (“CGS MY”) solely for the benefit of and for the exclusive use of our clients. Recipients of this report are to contact CGS MY, at Level 29, Menara
Aras Raya, No. 11, Jalan Raja Laut, 50350 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with this report. CGS MY
has no obligation to update, revise or reaffirm its opinion or the information in this research report after the date of this report.

19
 ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

New Zealand: In New Zealand, this report is for distribution only to persons who are wholesale clients pursuant to section 5C of the Financial Advisers
Act 2008.
Singapore: This report is issued and distributed by CGS SG. CGS SG is a capital markets services licensee under the Securities and Futures Act
2001. Accordingly, it is exempted from the requirement to hold a financial adviser’s licence under the Financial Advisers Act, 2001 (“FAA”) for advising
on investment products, by issuing or promulgating research analyses or research reports, whether in electronic, print or other form. CGS SG is subject
to the applicable rules under the FAA unless it is able to avail itself to any prescribed exemptions.
Recipients of this report are to contact CGS SG, 10 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 2, #09-01, Singapore 018983 in respect of
any matters arising from, or in connection with this report. CGS SG has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only. If you have not been sent this report by CGS SG directly, you may not rely, use
or disclose to anyone else this report or its contents.
If the recipient of this research report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, CGS SG accepts legal responsibility for the
contents of the report without any disclaimer limiting or otherwise curtailing such legal responsibility. If the recipient is an accredited investor, expert
investor or institutional investor, the recipient is deemed to acknowledge that CGS SG is exempt from certain requirements under the FAA and its
attendant regulations, and as such, is exempt from complying with the following:
(a) Section 34 of the FAA (obligation to disclose product information);
(b) Section 36 (duty not to make recommendation with respect to any investment product without having a reasonable basis where you may be
reasonably expected to rely on the recommendation) of the FAA;
(c) MAS Notice on Information to Clients and Product Information Disclosure [Notice No. FAA-N03];
(d) MAS Notice on Recommendation on Investment Products [Notice No. FAA-N16];
(e) Section 45 (obligation on disclosure of interest in specified products), and
(f) any other laws, regulations, notices, directive, guidelines, circulars and practice notes which are relates to the above, to the extent permitted by
applicable laws, as may be amended from time to time, and any other laws, regulations, notices, directive, guidelines, circulars, and practice notes as
we may notify you from time to time. In addition, the recipient who is an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor acknowledges that
as CGS SG is exempt from Section 36 of the FAA, the recipient will also not be able to file a civil claim against CGS SG for any loss or damage arising
from the recipient’s reliance on any recommendation made by CGS SG which would otherwise be a right that is available to the recipient under Section
36 of the FAA.
CGS SG, its affiliates and related corporations, their directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in specified
products of the company(ies) covered in this research report or any specified products related thereto and may from time to time add to or dispose of,
or may be materially interested in, any such specified products. Further, CGS SG, its affiliates and its related corporations do and seek to do business
with the company(ies) covered in this research report and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment
in specified products of such company(ies), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform
significant investment banking, advisory, underwriting or placement services for or relating to such company(ies) as well as solicit such investment,
advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in this report.
South Korea: This report is issued and distributed in South Korea by CGS International Securities Hong Kong Limited, Korea Branch (“CGS KR”)
which is licensed as a cash equity broker, and regulated by the Financial Services Commission and Financial Supervisory Service of Korea. In South
Korea, this report is for distribution only to professional investors under Article 9(5) of the Financial Investment Services and Capital Market Act of
Korea (“FSCMA”).
Spain: This document is a research report and it is addressed to institutional investors only. The research report is of a general nature and not
personalised and does not constitute investment advice so, as the case may be, the recipient must seek proper advice before adopting any investment
decision. This document does not constitute a public offering of securities.
CGS International is not registered with the Spanish Comision Nacional del Mercado de Valores to provide investment services.
Sweden: This report contains only marketing information and has not been approved by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority. The distribution
of this report is not an offer to sell to any person in Sweden or a solicitation to any person in Sweden to buy any instruments described herein and may
not be forwarded to the public in Sweden.
Switzerland: This report has not been prepared in accordance with the recognized self-regulatory minimal standards for research reports of banks
issued by the Swiss Bankers’ Association (Directives on the Independence of Financial Research).
Thailand: This report is issued and distributed by CGS International Securities (Thailand) Co. Ltd. (“CGS TH”) based upon sources believed to be reliable (but their
accuracy, completeness or correctness is not guaranteed). The statements or expressions of opinion herein were arrived at after due and careful consideration for use
as information for investment. Such opinions are subject to change without notice and CGS TH has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research
report.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR): (Thai CGR and Anti-Corruption of Thai Listed Companies - Click here)
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of
the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market
for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It
is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that
date. CGS TH does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Score Range: 90 - 100 80 – 89 70 - 79 Below 70 No Survey Result
Description: Excellent Very Good Good N/A N/A

United Arab Emirates: The distributor of this report has not been approved or licensed by the UAE Central Bank or any other relevant licensing
authorities or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report is strictly private and confidential and has not been reviewed by,
deposited or registered with UAE Central Bank or any other licensing authority or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report is

20
 ASEAN │ Economics Focus │ March 14, 2025

being issued outside the United Arab Emirates to a limited number of institutional investors and must not be provided to any person other than the
original recipient and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Further, the information contained in this report is not intended to lead to
the sale of investments under any subscription agreement or the conclusion of any other contract of whatsoever nature within the territory of the United
Arab Emirates.
United Kingdom and European Economic Area (EEA): In the United Kingdom and European Economic Area, this material is also being distributed
by CGS International Securities UK Ltd. (“CGS UK”). CGS UK is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and its registered office
is at 53 New Broad Street, London EC2M 1JJ. The material distributed by CGS UK has been prepared in accordance with CGS International’s policies
for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication and distribution of this material. This material is for distribution only to, and is solely
directed at, selected persons on the basis that those persons: (a) are eligible counterparties and professional clients of CGS UK; (b) have professional
experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order
2005 (as amended, the “Order”), (c) fall within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) (“high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc”) of the Order; (d)
are outside the United Kingdom subject to relevant regulation in each jurisdiction, material(all such persons together being referred to as “relevant
persons”). This material is directed only at relevant persons and must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any
investment or investment activity to which this material relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons.
This material is categorised as non-independent for the purposes of CGS UK and therefore does not provide an impartial or objective assessment of
the subject matter and does not constitute independent research. Consequently, this material has not been prepared in accordance with legal
requirements designed to promote the independence of research and will not be subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of
research. Therefore, this material is considered a marketing communication.
United States: This research report is distributed in the United States of America by CGS International Securities USA, Inc. (“CGS US”), a U.S.
registered broker-dealer and an affiliate of CGS MY, CGS SG, CGS ID, CGS TH and CGS HK and is distributed solely to persons who qualify as “U.S.
Institutional Investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. This communication is only for Institutional Investors
whose ordinary business activities involve investing in shares, bonds, and associated securities and/or derivative securities and who have professional
experience in such investments. Any person who is not a U.S. Institutional Investor or Major Institutional Investor must not rely on this communication.
The delivery of this research report to any person in the United States of America is not a recommendation to effect any transactions in the securities
discussed herein, or an endorsement of any opinion expressed herein. CGS US, is a FINRA/SIPC member and takes responsibility for the content of
this report. For further information or to place an order in any of the above-mentioned securities please contact a registered representative of CGS
US.
United States Third-Party Disclaimer: If this report is distributed in the United States of America by Raymond James & Associates, Inc (“RJA”), this
report is third-party research prepared for and distributed in the United States of America by RJA pursuant to an arrangement between RJA and CGS
International Securities Pte. Ltd. (“CGSI”). CGSI is not an affiliate of RJA. This report is distributed solely to persons who qualify as “U.S. Institutional
Investors” or as “Major U.S. Institutional Investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. This
communication is only for U.S. Institutional Investors or Major U.S. Institutional Investor whose ordinary business activities involve investing in shares,
bonds, and associated securities and/or derivative securities and who have professional experience in such investments. Any person who is not a U.S.
Institutional Investor or Major U.S. Institutional Investor must not rely on this communication. The delivery of this report to any person in the U.S. is not
a recommendation to effect any transactions in the securities discussed herein, or an endorsement of any opinion expressed herein. If you are receiving
this report in the U.S from RJA, a FINRA/SIPC member, it takes responsibility for the content of this report. For further information or to place an order
in any of the above-mentioned securities please contact a registered representative of CGS US or RJA.
https://raymondjames.com/InternationalEquityDisclosures
Other jurisdictions: In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is only for distribution to professional,
institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.

#04c

21