ESC 305

Global Climate Change

2. The Greenhouse Effect

Dr. Irem Daloğlu

[email protected]
Recap of last week
• Climate vs weather
• Climate change vs climate variability
• Climate change related disasters
• El Niño
Human Impact on Global Climate
• “The balance of evidence suggests a
discernable human influence on global
climate” IPCC 1995

3
 Climate Change: How do we know?

This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and
more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased
since the Industrial Revolution. (Credit: Vostok ice core data/J.R. Petit et al.; NOAA Mauna
Loa CO2 record.)
Climate Change: How do we know?
• Earth-orbiting satellites and other technological
advances have enabled scientists to see the big
picture, collecting many different types of information
about our planet and its climate on a global scale à
This body of data, collected over many years, reveals
the signals of a changing climate.
• The heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other
gases was demonstrated in the mid-19th century. Their
ability to affect the transfer of infrared energy through
the atmosphere is the scientific basis of many
instruments flown by NASA.
A blanket over the Earth
• Life on Earth depends on energy coming from the
sun. About half the light reaching Earth's
atmosphere passes through the air and clouds to
the surface, where it is absorbed and then
radiated upward in the form of infrared heat.

• About 90 % of this heat is then absorbed by the

greenhouse gases and radiated back toward the
surface, which is warmed to a life-supporting
average of 59°F (15°C).
A blanket over the Earth

A layer of greenhouse gases – primarily water vapor, and including much smaller
amounts of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – acts as a thermal blanket for
the Earth, absorbing heat and warming the surface to a life-supporting average of 59
degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius).
How do greenhouse gases actually
work?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTvqIijqvTg
• What is the range of lunar day and night
temperatures?
• What is the range of day and night
temperatures on Earth?
Pioneers of the science of the
greenhouse effect
• The warming effect of
greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere was first
recognized in 1827 by the
French scientist Joseph
Fourier
• He pointed out the
similarity between what
happens in the
atmosphere and in the
glass of a greenhouse à
led to the name
“greenhouse effect”
Pioneers of the science of the
greenhouse effect
• John Tyndall, around
1860, measured the
absorption of infrared
radiation by carbon
dioxide and water vapor
• Suggested that a cause
of the ice ages might be
a decrease in the
greenhouse effect of
carbon dioxide
Pioneers of the science of the
greenhouse effect
• Svante Arrhenius, a
Swedish chemist, in 1896,
calculated the effect of an
increasing concentration
of greenhouse gases
• He estimated that
doubling the
concentration of carbon
dioxide would increase
global average
temperature by 5-6 °C,
not too far from current
estimates
Pioneers of the science of the
greenhouse effect
• Nearly 50 years late,
around 1940s, Guy
Steward Callendar,
working in England, was
the first to calculate the
warming due to the
increasing carbon
dioxide from the
burning of fossil fuels.
Pioneers of the science of the
greenhouse effect
• First expression of concern about climate
change due to increasing greenhouse gases
was in 1957, when Roger Revelle and Hans
Suess published a paper pointing out that the
build-up of CO2 leads to a large scale
geophysical experiment.
Pioneers of the science of the
greenhouse effect
• In 1957, routine measurements of CO2 started
from the observatory in Mauna Kea in Hawaii.
• As the CO2 record extended, it became
increasingly impressive and each year
noticeably higher.
Carbon dioxide concentration
A year in the life of Earth’s CO2
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1SgmFa
0r04
• The rapidly increasing use of fossil fuels,
together with growing interest in the
environment à topic of global warming
moving up in the political agenda since 1980s
and eventually signing Climate Convention in
1992.
• More on this in following chapters.
Composition of the atmosphere
Gas Mixing ratio expressed as fraction of
parts per million (ppm)
Nitrogen (N2) 0.78 x 106
Oxygen (O2) 0.21 x 106
Water vapor (H2O) 0-0.02
Carbon dioxide (CO2) 380 - 400
Methane (CH4) 1.8
Nitrous oxide (N2O) 0.3
Chlorofluorocarbons 0.001
Ozone (O3) 0.6
Gasses that contribute to the
greenhouse effect
• Water vapor: The most abundant greenhouse gas, but
importantly, it acts as a feedback to the climate. Water
vapor increases as the Earth's atmosphere warms, but
so does the possibility of clouds and precipitation,
making these some of the most important feedback
mechanisms to the greenhouse effect.
Gasses that contribute to the
greenhouse effect
• Carbon dioxide (CO2): A minor but very important component of
the atmosphere, carbon dioxide is released through natural
processes such as respiration and volcano eruptions and through
human activities such as deforestation, land use changes, and
burning fossil fuels. Humans have increased atmospheric CO2
concentration by a third since the Industrial Revolution began.

• LATEST MEASUREMENT: August 2016 402.25 ppm

December 2016 404.48 ppm
June 2017 408.84 ppm
June 2018 410.79 ppm
June 2020 414.59 ppm
June 2022 415.58 ppm
Gasses that contribute to the
greenhouse effect
• Methane: A hydrocarbon gas produced both
through natural sources and human activities,
including the decomposition of wastes in landfills,
agriculture, and especially rice cultivation and
manure management associated with domestic
livestock.
On a molecule-for-molecule basis, methane is a
far more active greenhouse gas than carbon
dioxide, but also one which is much less
abundant in the atmosphere.
Gasses that contribute to the
greenhouse effect
• Nitrous oxide: A powerful greenhouse gas produced by
soil cultivation practices, especially the use of
commercial and organic fertilizers, fossil fuel
combustion, nitric acid production, and biomass
burning.

• Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs): Synthetic compounds

entirely of industrial origin used in a number of
applications, but now largely regulated in production
and release to the atmosphere by international
agreement for their ability to contribute to destruction
of the ozone layer.
Global warming potential - GWP
• The larger the GWP,
Greenhouse gases GWP
the more warming the Carbon dioxide (CO2) 1
gas causes. For Methane (CH4) 21
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 310
example, methane's 100- Hydrofluorocarbons (e.g., HFC 134a) 1300
year GWP is 16-26, which Perfluorcarbon (e.g., CF4) 6500

means that methane will Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) 23,900

cause ~16-26 times

as much warming as an
equivalent mass
of carbon dioxide over a
100-year time period.
Expected Consequences of GHG
Concentration Increases
• Temperature: Global temperatures are rising.
Observations collected over the last century
suggest that the average land surface
temperature has risen 0.45-0.6°C (0.8-1.0°F) in
the last century.
Not enough greenhouse effect
• The planet Mars has a
very thin atmosphere,
nearly all carbon dioxide.
• Because of the low
atmospheric pressure,
and with little to no
methane or water vapor
to reinforce the weak
greenhouse effect, Mars
has a largely frozen
surface that shows no
evidence of life.
Runaway greenhouse effect
• Too much greenhouse
effect: The atmosphere of
Venus, like Mars, is nearly
all carbon dioxide.
• But Venus has about 300
times as much carbon
dioxide in its atmosphere
as Earth and Mars do,
producing a runaway
greenhouse effect and a
surface temperature hot
enough to melt lead.
 History of Climate Science
Source “The Discovery of Global Warming” by Spencer Weart
Second edition (revised and updated 2008)

• 1824 - Joseph Fourier discovered the greenhouse effect.

• 1859 - John Tyndall discovered that H2O and CO2 absorb

infrared confirming the Fourier greenhouse effect.

• 1896 - Svante Arrhenius proposed human CO2 emissions

would prevent earth from entering next ice age
(challenged 1906).

• 1950’s Guy Callendar found H2O and CO2 did not

overlap all spectra bands, therefore warming from CO2
expected (countered the 1906 objections against
Arrhenius).
 History of Climate Science
Source “The Discovery of Global Warming” by Spencer Weart
Second edition (revised and updated 2008)

• 1955 - Hans Suess identified the isotopic

signature of industrial based CO2 emissions.
• 1956 - Gilbert Plass calculated adding CO2
would significantly change radiation balance.
• 1957 - Revelle/Suess suggested oceans would
absorb less CO2 causing more global warming
than predicted.
• 1958/60’s - Charles David Keeling proved CO2
was increasing in the atmosphere.
• 70’s/80’s Suke Manabe and James Hansen
began modeling climate projections.
 History of Climate Science
Source “The Discovery of Global Warming” by Spencer Weart
Second edition (revised and updated 2008)

• 1987-Montreal Protocol of the Vienna Convention

imposes international restrictions on emission of ozone-
destroying gases.

• 1988-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

is established.

• 1992-Conference in Rio de Janeiro produces UN

Framework Convention on Climate Change.

• 1997-International conference produces Kyoto Protocol,

setting targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions if
enough nations sign onto a treaty.
 History of Climate Science
Source “The Discovery of Global Warming” by Spencer Weart
Second edition (revised and updated 2008)

• 2007-Fourth IPCC report warns that serious

effects of warming have become evident;
cost of reducing emissions would be far less
than the damage they will cause.

• 2016 - Level of CO2 in the atmosphere

consistently above 400 ppm