Game Final Research-1
Game Final Research-1
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
BY:
1. GAMACHIS GARI…………………………………508/18
2. BIRHANU TESFAYE………………………………462/18
3. YOBSINE BYISA……………………………………..476/18
4. GETE WANDIMAGEGN…………………………….518/18
5. TOLASA IDAE…………………………………………498/18
6. ABEBE GARGIS………………………………………456/18
7. SHUKARE GABISA……………………………………505/18
8. BOKA MAMO……………………………………………492/18
9. BEDANE FAYISA……………………………………….503/18
10. TIGIST ADAMU…………………………………………443/18
MAY, 2021
AMBO, ETHIOPIA
i
Abstract
The objective of this study is to find out the role of saving and loan association in poverty
reduction in Ambo town. To accomplish this, primary data and secondary data sources of data
would be used. The data was analyzed and interpreted by using descriptive method like table and
percentage. Even though saving and loan association has a vital role in poverty reduction
illiteracy, high population growth and low level of women participation are the major problems
in the area. Besides to this in insufficient amount of fund and unfair decision of management in
the institutions are also the major problems. Finally, based on the finding of the study important
recommendation such as expanding adult education, family planning improving women
participation in area and providing sufficient amount of loan to members as well as introducing
good management system in the institution are made.
ii
Table 1:-sex classification of respondents.......................................................................18
Table 17:-respondents housing condition before and after membership of saving and Loan
Association....................................................................................................................................29
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Table of Contents
Abstract..........................................................................................................................................................ii
CHAPTER ONE............................................................................................................................................6
INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................................6
1.1 Background of the Study.....................................................................................................................6
1.2 Statement of the problem.....................................................................................................................7
1.3 Basic Research Question......................................................................................................................8
The question that this study would incorporate is.....................................................................................8
1. What are the determinants of private saving on economic growth in the study area?.......................8
2. What are the roles of private saving in economic growth of the study area?....................................8
1.4 Objective of the study..........................................................................................................................8
1.4.1, Specific objectives.......................................................................................................................9
1.5 Significance of the Study.....................................................................................................................9
1.6 Scope of the study................................................................................................................................9
CHAPTER TWO.........................................................................................................................................10
2.1 Theoretical Literature Review...........................................................................................................10
2.1.1 Neoclassical Growth Model........................................................................................................10
2.1.2 Solow Growth Model..................................................................................................................10
2.1.3 Harrod-Domar Growth Model....................................................................................................10
2.2 Empirical Literature Review..............................................................................................................11
2.2.1 Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia..............................................................................................14
CHAPTER THREE.....................................................................................................................................16
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY.................................................................................................................16
3.1. Source of data...................................................................................................................................16
3.1.1. Primary data...............................................................................................................................16
3.1.2. Secondary data...........................................................................................................................16
3.2. Sampling technique...........................................................................................................................16
3.3. Target population..............................................................................................................................16
3.4. Methods of data collection................................................................................................................17
3.5. Data presentation..............................................................................................................................17
3.6. Methods of Data analysis..................................................................................................................17
CHAPTER FOUR........................................................................................................................................18
4. DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION.....................................................................................18
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4.1. Demographic and personal characteristics of respondent’s..............................................................18
4. 1.1. Sex classification of the respondents........................................................................................18
4.1.2 Age of respondents.....................................................................................................................18
4.1.3 Marital Status of Respondents....................................................................................................19
4.1.4. Educational Level of the Respondents.......................................................................................19
4.1.5 Family Size.................................................................................................................................20
4.1.6 Occupation of the respondent.....................................................................................................20
4.2 Loan Utilization.................................................................................................................................21
4.2.1 Number and Values of Loan Dispersed Per Year...........................................................................22
4.2.2 Source of finance........................................................................................................................22
4.2.3 The respondent’s source of finance before membership............................................................23
4.2.4 Challenges during loan repayment period..................................................................................23
4.2.5. Loan demand..............................................................................................................................24
4.2.6. Desired amount of loan..............................................................................................................24
4.2.7 Loan Repayment Period from the Given One Year....................................................................25
4.3 Source of credit..................................................................................................................................25
4.3.1 Source of Income for Saving Mobilization.................................................................................25
4.3.2 Factors That Limits the Society to Save More............................................................................26
4.4 Assets of saving and Loan Association Before and after membership..............................................26
4.4.1 Number of Oxen.........................................................................................................................26
4.4.2 Income Status of the Respondents..............................................................................................27
4.4.3 Housing Condition......................................................................................................................28
4.5 The Role of Microfinance in Reaching the Poor...............................................................................29
CHAPTER FIVE.........................................................................................................................................30
5. CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATION....................................................................................30
5.1 CONCLUSION..................................................................................................................................30
5.2 POLICY RECOMMENDATION......................................................................................................31
References....................................................................................................................................................32
v
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
Saving is income not spent or deferred consumption. In economics more broadly, it refers to any
income not used for immediate consumption. Saving has been considered as an engine for
economic growth in the developed countries. Countries that had made sustained accumulation of
fixed capital such china have been able to achieve higher and sustained economic growth and
development than other countries. The accumulation of fixed capital can only be possible
through sufficient savings. (Jagadeesh, 2015).
Saving is pillar in achieving targeted economic growth. In order to attain sustainable economic
growth finance raised through domestic saving is more important than finance raised through
borrowed capital. In fact, saving is crucial for the healthy operation of the economy of the
country. Today most developing countries are facing financial shortage to implement their
project and debt crisis including Ethiopia. The reason for this crisis are that they spent more than
what could afford to. They face this problem because the fact that the spending was drive by
borrowed capital, instead of their domestic savings. As a result of low saving culture most
developing countries are paying heavy price in term of lost output, high unemployment, facing
debt crisis and increasing economic inequality (Suresh, et al, 2017).
Investigating the causal relationship between saving and economic growth is important for a
policy makers to identify which variable need to promote to obtain the desired values of target
variables such as economic growth. It might also useful to design policies and strategies that are
useful for the development of a country. If saving cause economic growth, then it is important to
improve the rate of saving for achievement of high growth targets, but if economic growth lead
to high saving rate, then it is helpful to promote economic growth (Sajid and Mudassira, 2008).
It is observed that countries that attain rapid economic growth recently like china, India and
Singapore, etc. also characterized by high saving rates during their development phase.
6
Similarly, many countries in Sub-Saharan and Latin America are characterized by low saving
rate and low economic growth (Suresh, et al, 2017).
Saving is crucial to create capital formation and it further lead to development and progress
which helps to attain economy of scale and increase specialization, which in turn improve labour
productivity, further increase GDP. Therefore saving brings efficient way of using available
scarce resource, increase the production capacity of the countries, thereby reduce unemployment
and help country to free from the burden of foreign debt and bring state of social welfare, which
generate economic growth, so saving is important factor for economy to grow and
develop(Jagadeesh,2015).
Developing countries can solve the vicious circle of poverty that currently facing them through
mobilizing sufficient savings, which in turn also essential for them to achieve the targeted
economic growth as well. Additionally, it is clear that the low rate of growth in most developing
countries are due to the low level of national savings, that hinder them to raise sufficient capital
for investment.
There are different theoretical views regarding the causal relationship between domestic saving
and economic growth. Some studies indicate that high saving lead to growth in income, some
indicate that growth in income lead to high saving and others found no causal relationship
between saving and economic growth. It is clear that the causal relationship between saving and
economic growth has been investigated by various researchers for different countries, but there is
7
no clear answer about the direction of causality between saving and economic growth (Kumar,
2017).
Ethiopia saving culture is still regarded as poor despite the performance improvement from 6%
in 1998 to 9.5% in 2003 E.C. Accordingly the Ethiopia saving rate which is 9.5% is the worst
saving rate in the world as compared to China, Bangladesh and South Africa which have the
better saving rate in the world. Ethiopia is characterized by poor saving culture which results in
very low saving available for investment. This is obstacle for the financial institution to provide
available credit for small enterprise due to the limited availability of capital. In the coming few
years industry sector is expected to lead the economy. In order to realize this industry need to be
promoted. Therefore, to achieve the target given to the industry sector it needs enough capital,
which is readily available for the sector in the form of domestic saving. By taking into
consideration Ethiopia planned to promote saving habit among society so as to mobilize
adequate saving. In the five Growth and Transformation Plan of the country (2003-2007), it is
planned to increase saving rate from 9.5% to 20% of the GDP (Aron, et al, 2013).
One of the major problems facing Ethiopia currently is the problem of raising enough finance to
implement the big project started in the country which hinders the country to achieve accelerated
growth and development. Lack of excess credit to undertake the investment would adversely
affected the production level of the economy. Lack of adequate credit is result from the low
saving culture and inefficiency of the financial institution; therefore private saving in the study
area is critical and need improvement as much as possible.
Thus, depending on such problems experienced in the study area, since the study is required we
are going to undertake the study in the study area as much as possible to minimize problem in the
time allowed.
1. What are the determinants of private saving on economic growth in the study area?
2. What are the roles of private saving in economic growth of the study area?
8
1.4 Objective of the study
The general objective of the study would be to examine the factors affecting private saving on
the economic growth in the study area.
To assess the roles of private saving to the economic growth in the study area.
Theoretical study would focus only on the investigation of micro and small enterprises and it
may not represent the other factor that affects micro and small enterprise of Ambo town.
Geographically, this study would undertake only in Ambo town and we will not study over all
investigation of micro and small enterprise of the country. Methodological study, the study
would undertake in order to make sense of the phenomena and led to a larger scale longitudinal
study.
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1.7 Organization of the study
The research paper document of the study was dividing the chapter into five chapters. Chapter
one is introduction section that incorporate background of the study, statement of the problem,
objectives, research questions, significance of study, scope, limitation and organization of the
study. Chapter two is provides review of related literature. Chapter three is contains research
methodology applied to conduct the research. Research findings presented and discussed in
chapter four is work plan; budget and the final chapter five include reference part.
10
CHAPTER TWO
2.1 Theoretical Literature Review
2.1.1 Neoclassical Growth Model
In neoclassical growth model, a long term rate of economic growth requires a rise in the supply
of labour and an improvement in capital or labour productivity by paying attention to the
accumulation of capital goods, growth in population, and technological progress. To the
neoclassical economists, the main to economic growth is the existence of diminishing marginal
returns to capital investment. There are two famously know models in neoclassical theory i.e.
Harrod- Domar growth model and Solow growth model (Rasmidatta, 2011).
The Solow model studies the impact of capital stock, labour, and technology progress on the
production output. The model also predicts that improvement in the level of saving rate and
productivity will increase the per capita income overtime. According to Solow growth model the
size of economy does not matter for the economic growth rather than the economic growth is
mainly depend on capital, labour, and technology (Rasmidatta, 2011).
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ratio. Harrod-Domar model define a close economy, assuming no government, no depreciation,
and investment is equal to saving. By using this assumption, we can write the Harrod-Domar
model as follow. Generally, the Harrod- Domar model tells us the GDP growth rate has a
positive correlation to the average propensity to save(s), the more saving or investment in the
economy, the greater will be the rate of national income (GDP) and the GDP growth rate has a
negative relationship with the capital output ratio (k) (Rasmidatta, 2011).
12
method and granger causality test. The estimation based on this model suggested that the
relationship between saving and economic growth for with different income levels is show that
for high income countries(HIC) the direction of causality runs from economic growth rate to
growth rate of saving except Singapore which is vice versa. It is because Singapore has the
forced saving system. In upper-middle income countries (UMC), the result indicates that there is
bidirectional causality that is the causality runs from growth rate of saving to economic growth
rate in the same time it runs from economic growth rate to growth rate of saving. The empirical
studies for lower middle income countries also shows the same result as that of the high income
countries (HIC) which is the direction of causality runs from economic growth rate to saving.
However, there is no causality between economic growth rate and the growth rate of saving in
Ecuador. The empirical result in low income countries (LIC) indicate that some countries has bi-
direction causality, in some countries the direction of causality runs from economic growth rate
to growth rate of saving and in some countries it runs from growth rate of saving to economic
growth rate but, in India there is no causality between saving and economic growth. The
empirical study based on this paper favour the result that the direction of relationship between
saving and economic growth in terms of causality runs from economic growth rate to growth rate
of saving. Moreover, this study shows that the income class does play important role for the
causality direction.
A study by Misztal, (2011) tries to analyse the causal relationship between economic growth and
savings in advanced economies and in emerging and developing countries. The paper use co-
integration and Granger’s causality test. The result confirmed the existence of one way causal
relationship between gross domestic saving and economic growth, that means this paper indicate
that the growth of domestic savings was the cause of the growth of gross domestic product in
advanced economies, as well as in emerging economies and developing economies. But, the
growth of gross domestic product was not the reason for the growth of gross domestic savings in
developed, emerging and developing countries.
A paper by Almor, (2013) aim to investigate the relationship between domestic savings and
economic growth in Gulf of Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. This study uses annual data
from 1980 to 2010 for a panel of 6 countries. The paper used the co-integration and Granger’s
13
causality test. The main finding of this work was that there is relationship between saving and
economic growth in this countries with different level of significance. The result of Granger’s
test suggests that the economic growth rate would lead to growth rate of saving in 4 countries.
On the other hand, growth rate in saving lead to economic growth rate in Oman. But, in Bahrain
only there is bidirectional causality between saving and economic growth. Based on the result,
the empirical study favors the hypothesis that the causality in GCC is from economic growth to
growth rate of saving. Moreover, this study suggests that the income source of the country does
play a crucial role in determining the direction of causality. In those countries where most
income comes from natural resources, direction of causality is from economic growth to
domestic savings.
A study by Najarzadeh, Reed and Tasan, (2014) tries to analyze the relationship between saving
and economic growth in the case of Iran between 1972 and 2010 .The paper used the Auto
Regressive distribution lag test (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) to provide estimates
both for the short and long run relationship. There result of this paper show that there is a
positive and significant effect of savings on economic growth and vice versa. On the other hand,
in the long run the direction of causality runs from economic growth to savings.
Dhanya Jagadeesh, (2015) investigates the role of savings on economic growth in Botswana by
using time series data on savings and economic growth covering the period from 1980 to 2013 to
analyze the relationship between savings and economic growth. The study used the Auto
Regressive Distribution Lag Test (ARDL) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Square
(DOLS).Autoregressive distribution lag test shows that in long run domestic saving stimulate
economic growth and there is significant relationship between economic growth and saving.
Turan, (2014) tries to indicate the causal relationship that exists between savings and economic
growth in Albania between the years 1992 and 2012 by implementing the Johanson co-
integration test. According to the empirical results the saving and economic growth are co-
integrated, therefore, it show that the existence of stable long-run equilibrium relationship
between this two variables. Moreover, the results of the study suggest that a positive relationship
between savings and economic growth and the complementary role of foreign direct investment
14
(FDI) in growth. These empirical findings imply that the government must pay special attention
toward foreign direct investment (FDI) policies in order to positively affect economic growth of
the country.
Mohanty, (2017) analysed the direction of causality between growth domestic savings and
economic growth of Ethiopia by using annual time series data from 1975 to 2016,an econometric
analysis is performed .The finding the study do not support the hypothesis that only faster growth
rate of gross domestic savings causes higher growth rate real GDP and the view that only income
induces saving from one angle of causation .The study however, shows that there is bi-
directional causality between economic growth and gross domestic savings in Ethiopia. The
result of this empirical study suggest that policy makers should give attention to boost domestic
savings ,so that saving should appropriately mobilized and directed towards productive
investment and as a result growth would be accelerated .
The paper by Samuel and Worku, (2015) on the causal relationship between gross domestic
saving and economic growth in Ethiopia, Uganda and Kenya presented as follow. The study aims
to analyse the direction of causality between savings and economic growth in East Africa from
the period (1981-2014) by using Vector Error Correction (VEC) method and Johanson’s
approach. The empirical study by using co-integration test confirmed that economic growth and
domestic saving are co-integrated in the case of Ethiopia and Uganda that means this paper
revealed that there is a long run relationship between economic growth and savings. On the other
hand the result in Kenya is different from that of Ethiopia and Uganda. In Kenya the study
presents that there is no any long run relationship between domestic saving and economic
growth. Granger causality test confirmed that there is unidirectional causality between domestic
15
saving and economic growth, which means economic growth lead to increase in the level of
domestic saving in Ethiopia and Uganda. Based on this empirical result this paper favoured the
hypothesis which suggested that the causal relationship between economic growth and saving is
runs from economic growth rate to growth rate of saving in the country in the range of study
period. This empirical study suggested that policy maker should need to design a policy which
enhances higher economic growth by increasing total factor productivity which in turn increases
the countries domestic saving. Moreover, the result suggests that national economic policy
should be primarily concern with encouraging the people to save by expanding financial
institution.
The paper by Ramakrisha, (2012) attempts to study the causality between savings and investment
in Ethiopia started from (1974-2009) by using Johansson co-integration methodology. The
empirical result suggests that there is no long-run relationship between saving and investment
implying no long-run tendency of convergence between savings and investment in Ethiopia. The
data analysis also reveals that investment is dependent largely on foreign aid and finance.
Ethiopia could not raise its domestic savings to meet the investment requirements and therefore
confront the problem of dependency and risk to external shocks. The low saving rate in Ethiopia
is because of nonmarket flows, especially, foreign aid. This empirical study implies that the
existence of no co-integration between domestic savings and investment in Ethiopia is due to the
deficit in current account balance of payment. Based on this empirical findings policy makers
should give attention to ensure the equilibrium between domestic resources and finance in the
economy. Moreover, the pattern of investment should be change with an objective of promoting
employment and reducing inflation. The efficient use of foreign aid and finance to promote
growth and savings is the immediate priority.
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CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The study would be conducted on Ambo town mainly on the determinants of private saving on
economic growth. Here, in order to obtain the required data, appropriate sources of data would
be employed. To carry out the study descriptive research method would be conducted to describe
the issues and came up with appropriate solution on the specific objectives.
17
3.4. Methods of data collection
The data would be collected from primary and secondary sources. To collect primary data, the
researchers would use both structured questionnaires and key informant interviews and a direct
observation. Both open and closed question would be used. Open ended questions would help the
respondents to express their idea in unlimited ways and reasonable manner whereas close ended
questions will provide “yes” or “No” answers. Apart from primary data, secondary data would
also collect from different sources, like books, journals and other websites.
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CHAPTER FOUR
1 Male 20 66.67%
2 Female 10 33.33%
3 Total 30 100%
The above table indicates that from a total of sample respondents, 66.67% were males while
33.33% of the respondents are females. This shows that the most of the beneficiaries are male in
the institution because the cultures of the society favour males and females have less access to
control over family’s resources.
19
3 31-38 5 16.67%
4 39-46 4 13.33%
5 >46 4 13.33%
Total 30 100%
Sources: own computed, 2021
As indicated on the above table more or less the institutions provide loan service for working age
group. Providing loan for adult is believed as reducing poverty because people under working
age group are matured and capable of starting or expanding business which generate income for
them and improve their livelihood.
As we can see from table 4.1.3, the majority of the member of association is married which
consists 63.33% of total sample.
The remaining 26.67% and 13.33%are unmarried and divorced respectively. As the majority of
the respondents are married, this may cause large family size which in turn leads to unable to
against poverty and favour livelihood.
20
3 6-8 4 13.33%
4 9-10 3 10%
5 11-12 2 6.67%
6 Degree 1 3.33%
Total 30 100%
Sources: own computed, 2021
Table 4.4, indicates that the majority of respondents i.e. 40% are, illiterate and 26.67% and
3.33% have attend 6-8, 11-12 and degree (higher education) respectively, this shows that most
of the clients that are organization have are illiterate and this has improve a negative impact on
poverty reduction.
As indicated on the above table 45.54 % of the respondents have family size ranging between 4-
7 and 30% have 1-3. In addition to this 26% of respondents have no family. I.e. they are not
married since the majority of respondents have relatively large number of children this has
implication for their food consumption pattern, access to education, health and others.
21
3 Merchant 3 10%
Total 30 100%
Sources: own computed, 2021
Though, the majority of the respondents where farmers, there is also clients who ride farming
and trade side as we refer from the table 63.33% are farmers, 26.67% process both farming and
trading (merchant) and 10% are merchant only, this implies that most of the users of the
OCSSCO are the farmers in this area.
As indicated on the above table as loan cycle increases the amount of loan received by borrowers
or borrower’s number also increased. For instance, the maximum number for the 3 rd round
received by large number of respondent is 2001-3000 which is increased to 3001-4000 in the 4 th
round. The number of clients who borrow maximum loan is also increased when we compare
with the third round, because as their cycle increase the client become matured and their business
expanded more and more.
22
4.2.1 Number and Values of Loan Dispersed Per Year
Table A.8 indicates that both number of borrowers and amounts of loan disbursed are increasing
from year to year. This implies OCSSCO playing a great role in poverty reduction by increasing
the delivery of saving and loan. Imagine within five years, remote rural areas and poor access of
infrastructure, it leads 18,271,250 birr for 10796 members.
23
enterprises in favour of a large scale, well-off, and literate clientele which can satisfy their
stringent loan condition. It includes banks, saving and loan association, credit union and etc.
As indicated on the above table 30% of the respondents sources of finance was from local money
lenders which charge high interest rate while, the rest 70% is from Iqub, Idir, and others, before
membership of OCSSCO, this implies that saving and loan association is playing a great role in
poverty reduction since it provides loan service in a low interest rate.
24
According to this table some respondents who faces challenges, overcome this challenge through
selling castle, borrowing from idirs and local money lenders (source, own survey, 2021).
Table 4.10 shows that for 86.67% of respondents demand for loan increases while, for the rest of
13.33% decrease. This implies that saving and loan association plays a great role in creating
finance which in turn leads used to reduce poverty.
25
From the above table one can conclude that majority of sample unit obtained the desired amount
of loan while 40% of respondents did not. Besides this we can identify also their reason why they
did not get the desired amount. Accordingly 60% of them did not have the desired amount of
loan due to unfair decision of management and the rest 6.67% due to shortage of cash from those
who do not have the desired amounts.
2 Short 6 20%
3 Satisfactory 20 66.67%
4 Long 0 0%
Total 30 100%
As presented above 66.67% of respondents respond that the repayment period is satisfactory
while the remaining 20%, 13.33% of the sample unit responded that the repayment period is
short respectively. But there is no respond for long because OCSSCO encourage timely
repayment.
26
Description source From business profit 9 30%
of income for saving
From agricultural profit 19 63.33%
mobilization
Remittance 1 3.33%
Other 1 3.33%
Total 30 100%
The above table show that for 63.33% of respondents their source of income for saving
mobilization are from agricultural profit while from 30% of them from business profit. Therefore
agriculture is the major source of income for saving mobilization in area.
In additional to this most of the respondents save their money and borrow from the institution
respondents to get respondents to get interest and buy agricultural input like select seed fertilizer
and etc. which increases productivity of agricultural product, which has significant change in
poverty reduction (source own survey 2021).
4.4 Assets of saving and Loan Association Before and after membership
4.4.1 Number of Oxen
1 None 10 33.33% 0 0%
27
2 1-2 20 66.67% 15 50%
3 3-4 0 0% 14 46.67%
4 Above 5 0 0% 1 3.33%
As indicated on the above table before the membership of the institution 33.33% of them not had
oxen but after membership this is reduced to around zero (0) on the other hand before
membership no one have 3-4 and 66.67% had 1-2 oxen but after membership 46.67% have 3-4
oxen and 60% have 1-2oxen this implies that institution has a significant change on asset of the
members poverty reduction.
Better 0 - 15 50%
Best 0 - 3 10%
28
membership. But after membership only 3.33% were poor and 36.67%, 50% have good and
better income status respectively. The percentage of respondents who have good and better
income status increased to36.67% and 50% respectively. This implies that the institutions
improves the income status of the respondents (reduce poverty in the area).
Table 34:-respondents housing condition before and after membership of saving and Loan
Association
House roof No of respondents Percentage No of respondents Percentage
coverage before membership after membership
No.
From the above table one can generalize that for 3.33% of respondents their house was covered
by iron sheet before membership but this was automatically increased to 56.67% after
membership and 63.33% of their house roof coverage was grass before membership. This was
reduced to only 26.67% after they become the members of the institution. In addition to this
33.33% of respondents roof was covered by nug and wheat before membership and this was
reduced to 16.67% after membership. This implies that OCSSCO improves the housing standard
of its members.
29
Coming the situation in Ambo Town the saving and loan association considers micro credit as a
means to a poverty reduction hence it provide credit services for the poor formers for agricultural
activities such as improved seeds fertilizers modern technology and etc though they do not
provide at all loan for consumption purpose (Zellers, 2002).
Therefore in Ambo Town the institution (OCSSCO) is delivering loan to clients. The clients are
borrowing money from the institution and putting the money borrowed on the business activities
then after they get a profit from borrowed money. By this task the clients should have reduced
poverty (MFI’s have reduced poverty).
CHAPTER FIVE
5.1 CONCLUSION
Saving is pillar in achieving targeted economic growth. In order to attain sustainable economic
growth finance raised through domestic saving is more important than finance raised through
borrowed capital. In fact, saving is crucial for the healthy operation of the economy of the
country. Saving is crucial to create capital formation and it further lead to development and
progress which helps to attain economy of scale and increase specialization, which in turn
30
improve labor productivity, further increase GDP. Therefore saving brings efficient way of using
available scarce resource, increase the production capacity of the countries, thereby reduce
unemployment and help country to free from the burden of foreign debt and bring state of social
welfare, which generate economic growth, so saving is important factor for economy to grow
and develop.
The main objective of the study is to analyze the impact of domestic saving on economic growth
of Ethiopia by using RGDP as a proxy for economic growth by using the co-integration test and
error correction model and to further investigate the link between domestic saving and economic
growth an econometric analysis has been performed. In the study different theoretical and
empirical perspectives about the relationship between these two macro variables have been
raised.
The major conclusion established from the econometric analysis in the long run with the variable
used in the model that is: gross domestic saving, foreign direct investment, fertilizer, rainfall and
official development assistance is that gross domestic saving, foreign direct investment and
official development assistance are consistent with expected signs and significant while fertilizer
consumption and rainfall are insignificant and with unexpected sign. This mainly because of in
Ethiopia smallholder farming system is the dominant system with low market share and they
don’t have access to fertilizer. In most rural part of Ethiopia instead of using fertilizer, crop
rotation and manure are dominant applied mechanisms in order to increase agricultural output.
Rainfall sign is out of expectation and insignificant. This mostly because of as mentioned above
smallholder farming system is the dominant farming system in Ethiopia with this agricultural
output produced by this smallholder by using rainfall is mainly for their family consumption and
they don’t contribute much to economic growth of Ethiopia. This implies the long run impact of
fertilizer and rainfall on economic growth of Ethiopia is insignificant. The finding of this
empirical analysis shows the importance of increasing domestic saving as means of achieving the
long term economic growth in Ethiopia.
The short run error correction model result shows that the coefficient of gross domestic saving
and foreign direct saving are positive and significant, while rainfall is insignificant but with
positive sign and fertilizer and official development assistance are with unexpected sign and
31
insignificant. It implies that domestic saving has short run impact on economic growth of
Ethiopia, and the result in the short run, the coefficient of error term is -0.8277 suggesting about
82.77% annual adjustment towards long run equilibrium.
Ethiopian government should play an important role in mobilizing and allocating resources to
enhance economic growth of the country; since growth in the economy will result in growth in
gross domestic savings and should set a sound and fertile environment in order to foster domestic
saving that will help to increase the level of economic growth in Ethiopia and transform the
financial sector of the country. Policy makers should put in place measures to boost domestic
savings so that savings should be appropriately mobilized and directed towards productive
investments and hence growth would be accelerated.
References
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Presented In Partial Fulfilments of The Requirements For Degree of Master of Arts In
Applied Economic Modelling and Forecasting Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia.
African Development Bank Group report on annual meeting (2019), in Malabo, Republic of
Equatorial Guinea
AlemayoGeda and Haile Kebret(2006). Aggregate Saving Behaviours in Africa: A Review of
the Theory and the Existing Evidence with New Empirical Results.
Almor, I. (2013. Growth and Savings in GCC: Co-integration and Causal Relationship Analysis,
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, vol.3, no.9.
Aron, H., Nigus, A. and Getnet, B. (2013). Assessment of Saving Culture among Household in
32
Ethiopia: Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, vol.4, no.15.
Gujarati, N. (2009), Basic Econometric, (5th Ed.), Tata McGraw-Hill Publishing Company
Limited, New Delhi, India.
Jagadeesh, Dh. (2015). The Impact of Savings on Economic Growth: An empirical study based
on Botswana, International Journal of Research in Business Studies in
Management, vol.2, issue 9, pp 10-21.
Jember, Y. (2016. The Relationship between Gross Domestic Savings and Economic Growth in
Ethiopia: Presented In Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements For Degree of
Master of Arts In Applied Economic Modeling and Forecasting Addis Ababa
University, Ethiopia.
Khalid, M. (2015).Domestic Investment, Savings and Economic Growth in Tanzania. A
Dynamic Multivariate Analysis, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development,
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Convergence Hypothesis: Case Study of Thailand, Master Thesis Submitted to
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Department of Economics SodertornsHogskola University.
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Economic Growth in East Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia, Uganda and Kenya, Journal
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and Economic Growth in India: Indian National Association of Post Graduate Centers
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DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
This questionnaire is prepared for the purpose of gathering relevant information on factors affecting
private saving on economic growth: in case of ambo town your reliable information is crucial for
the successful accomplishment of the research and we assure you that all the information gathered will be
used for academic purpose only. Thus we kindly request your genuine response for each of the following
question with best regard!
Instruction:
34
1 Do not the write your name.
2. Tick (√) on the answer of your choice and for the open ended question fill in the blank on space provided.
7.If your answer on #6 is yes, how much income do you earn per month _________________in Birr?
1. If yes, what is the size of your farm (in hectare)? A. Less than 1 hectare B. 1-3 hectares
2.Who owns the land you use to engage in home-based agricultural activities?
C. Customary laws
9. Who is the main source of income for the household you are member in?
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E. Government F. Development agents’ G. financial institution
10. How much is the percentage share of your income out of the total income of the households? ______________percent
12. If your answer for question #12 is yes in what kind of association are you member in_________
13. What is your suggestion about the benefit of women participation in agriculture sector on the economy as a whole?
3. If Q-18 no what restraint you to get credit from financial institution? A. I do not have own land
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5 transporting products
6 Marketing
23. Who participates more in household activities? Time allocated for different activities within 24 hours
Activities Time spend
Woman Time Man Time
Cooking food
Fetching water
Cleaning house
Caring children
Boiling coffee
Milking
Caring animal
Fuel wood collecting
Attend social meeting
Food for work activities
Grinding
Others
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