I think that I shall never see

A poem lovely as a tree

(Joyce Kilmer)

Tree Risk-Benefit Strategy

Establishing the Context

Trees provide many The benefits that trees give us are many. The more obvious values are visual
important benefits beauty in the landscape, timber, and the crops we harvest. Further benefits
include essential wildlife habitat, pollution filtering, and reducing the
harmful effects of both weather and climate change. Trees also have
important social value as part of our culture, history, or because they
commemorate an important event. As if those benefits weren’t enough, an
increasing body of scientific evidence clearly demonstrates that trees are
fundamental to our physical health, mental wellbeing, and quality of life.

Risk from tree failure Compared to other everyday risks that we readily accept, the overall risk to
is extremely low us and our property from tree failure is extremely low. The annual risk of a
death is much less than one in a million. Given the number of trees we live
with, and how many of us pass under them each and every day, being killed
or injured by a tree is a very rare event.

Tree Risk-Benefit Strategy

Of course, trees are natural living structures and can sometimes shed
branches or fall over. But this usually happens during severe weather, and
when they have very obvious defects. Because we need the many benefits
from trees, we also have to accept that some may fail during severe weather.

Our Duty of Care We have a duty of care to manage the risk from our trees. But that duty also
Reasonable says we should be reasonable, proportionate, and reasonably practicable
Proportionate when managing the risk. What this means is, there’s a balance we need to
Reasonably Practicable strike between the many benefits trees provide, the risk from them, and the
costs of managing the risk. By taking a balanced approach, we don’t waste
resources by reducing risk - and losing the benefits - where the risk is
already acceptable or tolerable.

Risk-Benefit Tolerance

What is an The Tolerability of Risk Framework (ToR) is an internationally recognised

acceptable level of risk approach to making risk management decisions where risks are imposed
from our trees? and have benefits. ToR identifies Broadly Acceptable and Unacceptable
levels of risk. Between these two risks is a region where the risk is Tolerable
if it is ‘as low as reasonably practicable’ (ALARP).

Our Tree Risk-Benefit Ratings

We are going to manage the risk from our trees using ToR principles.
VALID has rationalised ToR specifically for tree risk-benefit management.
There are three easy to understand traffic light colour-coded risk ratings.

Red - Unacceptable risks will be reduced; for example, by pruning or

felling the tree, or managing the level of occupation beneath it. Risk
reduction work will be given priority where the risk is highest, and where it
is most cost-effective.

Amber - Tolerable if ALARP risks will also be reduced when they are not
ALARP. These risks will not be reduced when they are ALARP.

Green - Acceptable risks will not be reduced.

© VALID [Link]
 Likelihood of Failure Club – The VALID Approach

What is the Do you want to improve your Likelihood of Failure tree risk assessment
Likelihood of Failure? skills? Come along and learn how to make credible, consistent, and
calibrated decisions at ‘Likelihood of Failure Club’. This highly
interactive, hands-on training shines the spotlight on what is often the
most subjective, uncertain, and challenging part of a tree risk
assessment. ‘What is the Likelihood of Failure?’

The VALID Likelihood of Failure Tool

The VALID approach to estimating Likelihood of Failure accounts for:

Vitality, Anatomy, Load, Identity, and Defect using a Likelihood of
Failure Tool. It is an easy to remember checklist of the Likelihood of
Failure factors that push the estimate towards benchmark red, or pull it
to benchmark green. It not only helps you focus on what is important,

Likelihood of Failure Club – Abstract

but it allows you to very quickly identify where differences of opinion
may lie. Usefully, VALID leaves an auditable record of your decision-
making about the Likelihood of Failure.

Likelihood of Failure Benchmarks and Categories

Benchmarks Benchmarks are the Likelihood of Failure categories where you have the
highest confidence and the lowest uncertainty in your estimate.
Benchmark Red is the tree part you most expect to fail in the next year.
Benchmark Green is the tree part you least expect to fail in the next year.

Categories There are 5 Likelihood of Failure categories as words and numbers, with
two colours and six shades. Once you anchor your opinion to a
benchmark colour, 3 Likelihood of Failure categories associated with the
other benchmark colour, are no longer available to you.

Likelihood of Failure Club Rules

You will be given VALID voting cards, shown a tree part, and invited to
form your own opinion about the likelihood of failure without any
discussion. Everyone then votes for a ‘benchmark’ and Likelihood of
Failure category. After you’ve declared your opening opinion, those of
you who have voted for the same Likelihood of Failure category will form
teams and use the VALID Tool to explain the reasoning for your
decision. Each team then tries to persuade those who have voted for a
different Likelihood of Failure why they should join them, and vice
versa. After a healthy round of discussion and deliberation, a final round
of voting allows any of you to change your mind if another team makes
a more convincing case founded on stronger evidence.

Sydney, Australia, 2017 Likelihood of Failure Club meetings around the world are highly rated
by those that come along. They are valued because they provide an
informal and thought-provoking place where everyone can share their
opinions and knowledge about tree failure.

You will come away from the day having had your Likelihood of Failure
decision-making muscles given a really good workout. You will be better
calibrated because you will have seen what many others think about the
same defect. And you will have a higher confidence and consistency in
your Likelihood of Failure estimates.

© VALID [Link]