Introduction
The Iran- Israel conflict has put the world in yet another threat of the impending world war.
The crisis and tension including the Palestine- Israel conflict, the continuous effects of
Russia- Ukraine War despite peace negotiations, the Yemen civil war and the lack of
substantial interference from the International Peace-making bodies like the United Nations
has put the Middle- East in a race of who will destroy the another first. Iran and Israel have
been in conflict since decades owing to their geopolitical, religious and power differences.
The Arab countries like Lebanon, Syria, Egypt and Jordan have been allied against Israel in
history to implement the “one state policy” with Muslim law in force. The tensions between
powers and the negative involvement of western nations have led to gross violations of
humanitarian law with a large population of minors and women as the victims of this
genocide on both sides. Mass murders, armed conflicts, genocidal rapes and displacement of
millions of people losing homes and jobs with the world on side debating on public platforms
has led to just on question going around, “Would this ever stop any sooner”? The article
discusses about the history of the Iran-Israel conflict, the events which led to its escalation,
the implications on international trade and economy and India’s position regarding the war in
the future.
Background
The conflict of power backed with geopolitical and regional differences has led to political
and geographical instability in the Middle East since years. Iran and Israel have been
contenders of this power dynamics with series of proxy wars against each other through cyber
security breaches, assassinations of nuclear scientists and taking down leaders of terrorist
groups operating in the Middle East. The history of Iran-Israel war is chained by various
events which will be discussed in brief below.
Israel Palestine Issue & Iran’s stand
The United Nations was formed as a result of the Second World War with a resolution to
prevent any future war and the adversities coming with it. The border conflict of Jews and
Arab Muslims which was a result of the 1st World war with the territory under the control of
Great Britain and no definite border division was brought in front of the United Nations
which proposed a Partition Plan for the conflict also known as the “two-state solution”
program. The United Nations proposed that there would be a definite divide of the land with
the Jewish population owning 55% of the region and the Arab Palestinians owning 45% of
the region with the city of Jerusalem under the control of the United Nations.
The plan was accepted by Israel leading to its formation on 14th May 1948. However, the
plan was opposed by Palestine who wanted a “one-state solution” with all the population i.e.,
the Jews, the Arab Muslims and Christians living under one state (Palestine) governed by the
Muslim law. There is still no Palestine on the official world map, it has always been an idea
for the Arabs and Hamas.
Iran has been a vocal supporter of Hamas- Palestine in this Israel-Palestine conflict providing
its unwavering support to the terrorist organizations of Hamas and Lebanon based Hezbollah
against Israel. Being a Jewish state among Arab nations fighting for control over Middle East
puts Israel in a state of seclusion from the other Arab countries, Iran being one of them. These
religious differences have led to increase in hostility and shadow wars against each other over
the years.
Geopolitical Conflict
Power struggles between the two countries has been a major cause of geopolitical conflict in
the Middle East. Iran has been an opposer to Israel’s political existence since its Islamic
Revolution in 1979. The country, post the revolution is an Islamic Republic governed by
Shia Law. Prior to the revolution, Iran and Israel were allies exchanging mutual interests. The
revolution brought them at opposing ends leading to Iran backed terrorist organization
Hezbollah providing arms and financial backing to Hamas, a terrorist liberation organization
in the Gaza strip and West Bank of the Israel state seeking liberation of Arab Palestinians
and a separate nation for them, along with the vow to eradicate Israel.
Proxy Wars
Israel and Iran have been in proxy wars since the 90s mastering in cyber-attacks against each
other, striking down base camps with drone and aerial missile attacks, assassinations of
nuclear scientists and the most recent Pager attacks.
Assassinations of notable nuclear scientists to eradicate any chance of development of a
nuclear weapon by Iran has been a priority of Israel. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a notable Iranian
nuclear scientist was assassinated in a highway attack outside Tehran. The list of other
important scientists and their assassinations includes Masoud Alimohammadi and Majid
Shahriari in the year 2010, Daryoush Rezaeinejad in the year 2011 and, Mostafa Ahmadi
Roshan in the year 2012.
Recent Events leading to breakout of direct violence
The Israel-Hamas conflict saw breakout of violence in the Gaza strip with Hamas attacking
Israel with aerial missiles through the Gaza strip and Lebanon in October 2023 along with
taking 240 Israelis as hostages. In retaliation, Israel bombarded Palestinian settlements with
aerial and military attacks, in addition to cutting down electricity and water supplies causing
displacements and loss of life in large numbers. The chained military attack has been a daily
phenomenon despite major warnings of ceasefire since October 2023. The devastating
operation carried out by Israel has seen loss of over 50,000 people and displacement of over
lakhs of them with a majority affected being women and minors. With the close involvement
of Iran in this violence, the increase in hostility between Iran and Israel caused gross violation
of human rights and posed a major threat to international security and international trade.
In April,2024, Israel took down the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria killing Major
General Mohammad Zehadi, an Iranian top commander and his deputy among 10 others.
Two weeks after the attack, Iran for the first time ever, launched a direct missile attack into
Israel.
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, an important leader of the Hamas movement in August
2024 led to a considerable shift in the velocity of the war. The operation was carried out when
Ismail Haniyeh participated in the swearing ceremony of the new Iranian President Masoud
Pezeshkian after the death of the former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter
crash. Haniyeh’s participation in the swearing ceremony was a direct message to the world
about the strong ties of Hamas and Iran. Haniyeh’s assassination was strongly condemned by
Iranian authorities and notable Iranian ministers.
Pager attack operation which took place on September 17, 2024 is said to have been a well-
planned and executed attack by the Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad. These attacks were
executed by embedding explosives in the pagers of the Hezbollah militants supposedly used
for inter-communication, bombarded at the same time, killing major Hezbollah leadership
and mutilating thousands of others.
In September,2024, Israel military launched over 600 aerial missile strikes on almost 1500
Hezbollah targets around Lebanon. It was reported that around 700 people killed including
women and children. Israel took responsibility of the strikes including the assassination of the
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Hashem Safieddine, Hezbollah’s successor after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, is
presumably declared dead in an Israeli airstrike on October 5, 2024.
Fresh airstrikes in Lebanon are now a state of daily occurrence leading to deaths and
displacement of over a million of people.
Implications on International Trade and India
1) Import of Crude Oil
India imports 2 million Barrels of Crude Oil daily through the Persian Gulf to the
Kandla Port in Gujrat. Tensions in the Persian Gulf caused by the Israel-Iran war can
cause a halt in energy supplies in the country. This can ultimately lead to increase in
petrol prices, a disruption in the supply chains of Indian factories and transport system
in India. This can ultimately lead to inflation and ultimately trade deficit in India.
2) Impact on India-Midde East- Europe Economic Corridor
The IMEC Corridor is an ambitious project proposed and accepted at G20 Summit
held in New Delhi in September 2023. The IMEC is a part of Partnership for Global
Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) project. It aims to create a valuable
infrastructure unit for developing countries through road, rail and ship networks
through two corridors namely
A) The Eastern Corridor – India to the Gulf
B) The Northern Corridor- Gulf to Europe
The war zone between Iran and Israel can hamper this valuable project which was
signed by various dignitaries including Israel disrupting India’s strategic move
towards relations with the Arab nations and increase in connectivity.
3) The Red Sea Conflict
Iran has major control over Youthi rebels from Yemen who are causing attacks on
passing ships as a sign of resistance against Israel. Yemen has been going through a
civil war with grave occurrences of humanitarian crisis and a slow death of Yemen
economy due to absence of proper governance and attacks on civilians. No medical
infrastructure, shelter or security has led Youthi rebels to take control and commit
atrocities in search of power. Their control over the coastal regions of Red Sea backed
by Iran has led to increase in attacks on the passerby ships. This in turn is leading to
high transport and insurance costs for the traders including the Indian powers who
carry a major chunk of transportation through the Red Sea region. The frequency of
attacks on ships have increased from November 2022 in the region. This has led to
increase in time of the journey of the ships, thereby raising the worries of traders.
4) Dip in Bilateral Trade
India has always managed good strategic and trade relations with both Iran and Israel.
However, the direct conflict between the countries can put India in a difficult situation
and see a slowdown in bilateral trade. India has always been diplomatic in its stand
clearing out its best interests and encouraging communication as pointed by our
Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar. The dip in trade however can be evidently seen as the
war goes on.
5) Effect on Stock Market
The volatile nature of war in the Middle East has hit the stock markets across the
world and in India. The major sectors affected are the energy sectors and airline
sectors facing uncertainty because of the war-like crisis. The Indian Government has
requested its airlines to reroute their paths citing safety concerns. This can lead to
more expenses on fuel, power and ultimately longer duration of flights.
6) World War III and the need to prioritize humanitarian rights
All the conflicts taking place in Iran-Israel, Israel-Palestine, Yemen etc do need a
stronger question of priority that is the question of human rights and their violation.
The World war like situation and the instability in Middle East has led to major
concerns about the impending war which can breakout if proper intervention does not
take place, leading the world with yet another world war.
India’s stand on the Iran Israel Conflict
India has maintained a neutral stance encouraging communication between the two countries.
India maintains a good diplomatic relationship with Israel and had cordial relations with Iran.
However, due to the recent escalating conflict and the onslaught of terrorist organizations,
India has shown its support to Israel showing its strong stand against terrorism. The Iranian
Minister’s tweet on sufferings of Muslims in Bangladesh, Myanmar and India was met with
strong criticism from India’s External Ministry. Iran’s growing relations with China and
conflicts with U.S.A will lead to more tension in India-Iran relations.
India has its ambitious IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor) project which aims
towards better connectivity and stronger ties with the nations involved. However, the
controversial stand of Iran towards terrorism, the growing Iranian – China relations and its
tumultuous ideologies can create a rift in Indian-Iran ties.
Conclusion
The Iran- Israel conflict has led us to an important question today, the question of survival
over saving. The crisis in Middle East have gone out of control and the world cannot name a
date where it all would come to a halt. Strong condemnations of the gross violation of human
rights and the rampage destructive use of weapons need to see the light of substantial action
outside of online platforms. After all, do we really need another World War?
