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Interactions Among Ecosystem Services. In: Scenarios: Findings of the Scenarios

Working Group. Ecosystems and Human Well-being

Chapter · January 2005

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Rodríguez, J. P., T. D. Beard, Jr., E. M. Bennett, G. S. Cumming, S. Cork, J. Agard, A. P. Dobson, and G.
D. Peterson. 2006. Trade-offs across space, time, and ecosystem services. Ecology and Society 11(1): 28.
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Research, part of a Special Feature on Scenarios of global ecosystem services

Trade-offs across Space, Time, and Ecosystem Services

Jon Paul Rodríguez1, T. Douglas Beard, Jr.2, Elena M. Bennett3, Graeme S. Cumming4, Steven J. Cork5,
John Agard6, Andrew P. Dobson7, and Garry D. Peterson3

ABSTRACT. Ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs arise from management choices made by humans, which
can change the type, magnitude, and relative mix of services provided by ecosystems. Trade-offs occur
when the provision of one ES is reduced as a consequence of increased use of another ES. In some cases,
a trade-off may be an explicit choice; but in others, trade-offs arise without premeditation or even awareness
that they are taking place. Trade-offs in ES can be classified along three axes: spatial scale, temporal scale,
and reversibility. Spatial scale refers to whether the effects of the trade-off are felt locally or at a distant
location. Temporal scale refers to whether the effects take place relatively rapidly or slowly. Reversibility
expresses the likelihood that the perturbed ES may return to its original state if the perturbation ceases.
Across all four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios and selected case study examples, trade-off
decisions show a preference for provisioning, regulating, or cultural services (in that order). Supporting
services are more likely to be “taken for granted.” Cultural ES are almost entirely unquantified in scenario
modeling; therefore, the calculated model results do not fully capture losses of these services that occur in
the scenarios. The quantitative scenario models primarily capture the services that are perceived by society
as more important—provisioning and regulating ecosystem services—and thus do not fully capture trade-
offs of cultural and supporting services. Successful management policies will be those that incorporate
lessons learned from prior decisions into future management actions. Managers should complement their
actions with monitoring programs that, in addition to monitoring the short-term provisions of services, also
monitor the long-term evolution of slowly changing variables. Policies can then be developed to take into
account ES trade-offs at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Successful strategies will recognize the
inherent complexities of ecosystem management and will work to develop policies that minimize the effects
of ES trade-offs.

Key Words: Ecosystem services; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; space; time; synergisms; trade-offs

INTRODUCTION The principal challenges in managing ES are that

they are not independent of each other (Heal et al.
2001, Pereira et al. 2005), and that the relationships
Human societies have always relied on ecosystem between them may be highly non-linear (e.g., Farber
services (ES) to enhance their well-being. Food, et al. 2002, van Jaarsveld et al. 2005). Individual ES
fiber, clean water, pollination, fertile soils, and can be thought of as different elements of an
recreation are just a few of the many services interrelated whole or “bundle” (Cumming and
provided by nature to humans (Fig. 1, Ehrlich and Peterson 2005). Attempts to optimize a single
Ehrlich 1992, Daily et al. 1997). Over time, we have service often lead to reductions or losses of other
also modified the supply of numerous ES to enhance services—in other words, they are “traded-off”
the delivery or production of a particular good or (Holling and Meffe 1996). For example, forested
service. For example, agriculture, forestry, and dam areas provide a variety of extractive and non-
building are used by people to increase the extractive goods and services (Rose and Chapman
availability of vegetables, wood, and water, 2003). If a region is managed for mining, this may
respectively. decrease its value for carbon sequestration, flood

1
Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Cientificas, 2U.S. Geological Survey, 3McGill University, 4University of Florida, 5Land & Water Australia,
6
University of the West Indies, 7Princeton University
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control, or wilderness and biodiversity protection. offs happen when we are ignorant of the interactions
Knowledge and awareness of the interactions among ES (e.g., Tilman et al. 2002, Ricketts et al.
between ES are necessary for making sound 2004), when our knowledge of how they work is
decisions about how to manage natural systems incorrect or incomplete (Walker et al. 2002), or
appropriately (e.g., Grasso 1998, Kearns et al. 1998, when the ES involved have no explicit markets. But
Higgins et al. 1999, Balvanera et al. 2001, Rose and even when a decision is the result of an explicit,
Chapman 2003). informed choice, the decision may have negative
implications. For example, adverse impacts may
In this article, we focus on societal ES management arise as a consequence of the scale mismatch
decisions that may negatively affect the provision between the intent of a particular management
of other ES. After defining and characterizing ES decision, the expected outcome, and the long-term
trade-offs, we explore some examples of the most or broad spatial scale of the decisions (van Jaarsveld
frequent ES trade-offs faced by society. We et al. 2005). Ecosystem feedbacks and food web
elaborate on future trade-offs in the context of the dynamics can also lead to unexpected consequences
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) scenarios (Ostfeld and LoGiudice 2003). As either the
(Carpenter et al. 2006, Cork et al. 2006), and temporal or spatial scale increases, trade-offs
conclude by summarizing the principal lessons become more uncertain and difficult to manage—
learned. A broader treatment of the topic of even with adequate knowledge. As human societies
interactions among ES (which also includes continue to transform ecosystems to obtain greater
synergies) may be found in Rodríguez et al. (2005), provision of specific services, we will undoubtedly
and an analysis of trade-offs in the MA sub-global diminish some to increase others (Foley et al. 2005).
assessments, as well as methods for guiding
decision makers, are developed by Pereira et al. Ecosystem services trade-offs can be classified
(2005). along three axes: spatial scale, temporal scale, and
reversibility (Fig. 2). “Spatial scale” refers to
Although trade-offs are becoming a popular topic whether the effects of the trade-off are felt locally
of inquiry in ecology, few studies have brought or at a distant location. “Temporal scale” refers to
together examples from across disciplines and whether the effects take place relatively rapidly or
around the planet, as we do here. Additionally, the slowly. “Reversibility” expresses the likelihood that
nature of scenarios insists that we focus on the the perturbed ES may return to its original state if
impact that current decisions may have on the future, the perturbation ceases.
which is a unique aspect of this review paper. Trade-
offs have an impact on current provision of ES, but Because many management actions affect more
our analysis shows that their impact on future than one ES at a time, and may operate at different
provision of services, which often has unknown or scales simultaneously, it can be difficult to classify
unanticipated aspects, can be even greater. By ES interactions in a single category. At the same
highlighting the impacts of trade-offs on the future time, however, knowledge of the different scales at
supply of ES, we focus on a critical part of making which policies should be targeted is a key
better decisions about trade-offs themselves. component of managing ES.

ES Trade-offs in Space
WHAT IS AN ECOSYSTEM SERVICE
TRADE-OFF? Environmental economists use “externality” to refer
to the effects of an ES management decision that
are borne by others than those benefiting from the
Ecosystem service trade-offs arise from management targeted ES (Tietenberg 1996). For example, the
choices made by humans, which can change the diversion of water from a river to provide drinking
type, magnitude, and relative mix of services water for a town, or irrigation water to an
provided by ecosystems. Trade-offs occur when the agricultural area, will leave people downstream
provision of one ES is reduced as a consequence of without water to meet their own needs. The use of
increased use of another ES. In some cases, a trade- water upstream imposes an externality on those
off may be an explicit choice; but in others, trade- living lower down the watershed.
offs arise without premeditation or even awareness
that they are taking place. These unintentional trade- Spatial trade-offs are among those most commonly
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Fig. 1. Ecosystem services are the benefits that people obtain from ecosystems. They include provisioning,
regulating, and cultural services that directly affect people, and supporting services needed to maintain the
other services. Biodiversity underlies all ecosystem services (source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Synthesis Report, http://www.maweb.org//en/Products.Synthesis.aspx).
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Fig. 2. Eight categories of ecosystem service trade-offs, classified according to their spatial and temporal
scales, and their degree of reversibility (Excerpted from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2005.
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Scenarios, Volume 2. Copyright © 2005 by the author. Reproduced
by permission of Island Press, Washington, D.C.).

observed in human societies (Rodríguez et al. 2005). USA relies on the addition of either natural (manure)
They are frequently linked to the use of a or chemical fertilizers. The effects of the high level
provisioning service, which is traded-off against of artificial fertilization have resulted in massive
another ES, e.g., when decisions about increasing changes in downstream areas. The cumulative effect
agricultural production by increasing fertilizer use of small-scale fertilization by many individual
have broad-scale effects on water quality. This is farmers has been the creation of a hypoxic (“dead”)
illustrated by agricultural production in the USA, zone in the Gulf of Mexico (Cumming and Peterson
which is a compelling example of a spatial ES trade- 2005). The dead zone has resulted in declines in the
off (Tilman 1999, Tilman et al. 2002). shrimp fishery, as well as in other local fisheries in
the Gulf region (Malakoff 1998). Attempts to
Highly productive, intensive agriculture within the maintain and increase the provision of one service,
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Fig. 3. Generalized schematic sequence of land-cover changes from before human settlement to the human
domination of the landscape (adapted from DeFries et al. 2004).

food, have caused substantial declines in many ES projects (Samraj et al. 1988).
in another location (Tilman et al. 2002). The effects
of this trade-off are felt over a large spatial scale,
and are likely to last for a long time. Indeed, some ES Trade-offs in Time
of them may be irreversible.
Management decisions often focus on the
Analogous cases from other parts of the world also immediate provision of an ES, at the expense of this
exist (Pereira et al. 2005, van Jaarsveld et al. 2005). same ES or other services in the future. Such
For example, bluegum (Eucalyptus globulus) decisions are prevalent in democratic societies,
plantations in the Nilgiri Plateau in southern India where the term of elected officials is short enough
provide industry with paper pulp and tannin, but that the ecological impacts of their decisions will
have reduced water yield from catchments by up to probably be confronted by others than themselves
23%, thereby affecting downstream hydropower (i.e., the consequences of poor decisions become
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externalities that are borne by future politicians). accompanied by an initial increase in cultural ES,
Temporal externalities are not just a political changes in shoreline vegetation resulted in
problem, however; many natural processes, such as increased sedimentation (soil loss; soil provides a
those that create soil or alter soil fertility and supporting ES), a reduction of the amount of habitat
groundwater levels, occur at such slow rates that (a regulating ES) available for fishes (Christensen
several generations may pass before significant et al. 1996), and a decrease in fish growth rates
effects are perceived by humans. In each case, the (Schindler et al. 2000). In turn, fish growth is
principal characteristic of an ES trade-off in time is directly related to fish production, which is a
that the short-term needs of society drive decisions provisioning ES.
about ES management, purposely or inadvertently
ignoring the future consequences of these actions. Although zoning regulations can help to control
shoreline development, lake communities are often
Dryland salinization has been a major issue facing resistant to zoning and control, even though there is
farmers in Australia since the 1930s. It was not until evidence that zoning results in even higher increases
the late 1980s and early 1990s, however, that the in property value (Spaltro and Provencher 2001). In
problem moved from being individual to collective addition, shoreline developments often lead to
(Anderies et al. 2001, Greiner and Cacho 2001, increases in primary production due to increased
Briggs and Taws 2003). To increase agricultural fertilizer use and sedimentation from runoff. The
production (a provisioning service), many farmers consequence is a decrease in water quality
cleared the original woody vegetation and replaced (regulating ES) and subsequent reduction in the
it with pastures and crops (Schofield 1992, aesthetic quality of the lake (cultural ES).
Farrington and Salama 1996). The naturally
forested landscape of Australia had provided an Resistance to zoning and government regulation by
important but undervalued regulating service by property owners in this area led to overdevelopment
maintaining the groundwater at low enough levels and the environmental impacts just discussed. It
that salts were not carried upward through the soil. remains to be seen whether the long-term
Once the woody vegetation was removed, the water cumulative environmental impact will adversely
table moved toward the surface, bringing salt from affect property values. Several types of trade-offs
the basement complex into the surface soils. As the are involved here. For example, the reduction of fish
salt content in soils increases, lands become habitat is probably irreversible, local, and rapid
unusable for traditional agriculture (Anderies et al. (Type E, Fig. 2), whereas decreases in water quality
2001, Greiner and Cacho 2001, Briggs and Taws and aesthetic value of lakes may be reversible (with
2003). A short-term focus on agricultural successful enforcement of regulations on fertilizer
production led to the longer-term loss of soil quality. use), large scale, and long term (Type D, Fig. 2).
Current ecological restoration efforts include
planting trees in plots contiguous to fields to recover
the ES provided by native vegetation (Schofield Trade-offs across ES
1992, Farrington and Salama 1996).
Trade-offs do not only occur across space and time,
and have different degrees of reversibility, but
Reversibility of ES usually result in more than one ES traded-off for the
ES being enhanced. For example, the management
An example of the degrees of reversibility of ES is of a forest for tree production (a provisioning
provided by lakeshore development in the northern service) may also affect water quality downstream
USA. Property values surrounding lakes in northern (a regulating service) or decrease the value of the
Wisconsin in the USA are linked to the development land for recreation (a cultural service) (e.g., Rose
patterns around the lake. During the last 30 years, and Chapman 2003, Maass et al. 2005, van Jaarsveld
there has been a substantial increase in the et al. 2005).
development and building on lake shores (Peterson
et al. 2003) that has resulted in the creation of a “lake The recent sudden decline of Gyps vultures in
community” on many lakes. The initial conversion eastern India provides a compelling example of how
of these lakes from undeveloped to developed the decline of a single species can cause declines in
shorelines resulted in an increase in property values provision of many ES, illuminating unexpected
around these waters. Although development was interactions between species and socioecological
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Fig. 4. Relative change in provision of ecosystem services (ES) in the four scenarios. Red polygons (“stars”)
indicate the state of each ES at the end of the scenario storyline relative to a starting point of zero (indicated
by green stars). A positive value (between 0 and 1) indicates an increase in the supply of a particular ES.
A negative value (between 0 and -1) indicates a decrease in supply. Therefore, as the red stars are bigger,
the overall supply of ES increases, but as they decrease, the overall supply of ES decreases (Excerpted
from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Scenarios, Volume
2. Copyright © 2005 by the author. Reproduced by permission of Island Press, Washington, D.C.).

processes. Vultures play an important role as natural In recent years, vulture numbers have suddenly
garbage collectors in many parts of India. In declined, with consequences that have cascaded
particular, vultures help dispose of cattle carcasses throughout the region. As there are too few vultures
in areas where beef eating is forbidden (Pain et al. to clean the corpses, the Parsi are no longer able to
2003, Green et al. 2004). In Amritsar, center of the lay their dead to rest without causing a health hazard
Parsi religion, they also help remove human corpses (Ramesh 2005). Instead, the dead are stored until a
from traditional sites of “laying to rest.” future time. But the less obvious consequences of
the decline in the vulture population are leading to
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even more dramatic effects. Carcasses of cattle are enhanced. In the final stages, a portion of the
disposed of in areas on the edges of towns and landscape is set aside as protected or recreational
villages. These areas are now becoming areas, and another is managed as restored or
increasingly dangerous to visit because vultures do rehabilitated ecosystems. It is not until late in the
not rapidly remove the meat from carcasses, process that societies, faced with an ever shrinking
tempting other carnivores to the area. Feral dog wilderness, focus on conservation and restoration.
populations have increased as a result of the lower For example, after the destruction of about 60% of
competition with vultures for meat. Growing dog wetlands in the midwestern USA for farming
populations are likely to cause an increase in rabies purposes, restoration is now considered a priority
risk, dramatically heightening the consequences of and has received governmental support through the
being attacked by a dog (Youth 2002). 2002 Farm Bill (Zedler 2003).

Vulture declines have recently been linked to the Decisions about ES typically default to the short-
use of the cattle anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac term needs of humans, even when such decisions
(Green et al. 2004, Oaks et al. 2004). Thus, in this might interfere with ES that are necessary for the
example, attempts to improve the health of domestic long-term sustainability of human well-being
animals had a series of cascading, unanticipated, (Foley et al. 2005). The heavy emphasis on
and unknown effects on many other services, provisioning ES could be the consequence of their
including a likely impact on human health in the value being more tangible and identifiable by
area. societies, whereas the economic value of cultural,
regulating, and supporting services are more
difficult to quantify.

MOST COMMON TYPES OF ECOSYSTEM At some point, however, cultural services may
SERVICE TRADE-OFFS become critical and trade-offs may occur between
different cultural services. For example, people
recognize “their” country by its typical plants,
In general terms, the preferences of human societies animals, and landscape features. Although for some
for the services provided by ecosystems seem to the cultural value of landscapes increases as they
focus first on provisioning services, followed by approach a “wilderness” condition, others, e.g.,
regulating, cultural, and supporting services, in that farmers in countries as diverse as Australia and
order (Foley et al. 2005, Pereira et al. 2005, Switzerland, feel uncomfortable if tree cover is
Rodríguez et al. 2005, van Jaarsveld et al. 2005). increased beyond a threshold (Hunziker 1995, Cary
This hierarchy of preference parallels the sequence and Williams 2000).
of events that take place after human colonization
of a new unsettled area, which is also linked to the Managers of freshwater systems also face a typical
short-term needs of humans (Fig. 3, DeFries et al. and difficult set of possible trade-offs (e.g., Samraj
2004). et al. 1988, Jackson et al. 2001, Lenton 2004,
Chermak et al. 2005, Stamenkovic et al. 2005).
Initially, as the human frontier reaches wildlands, Water is removed from streams and lakes for
land is rapidly cleared to establish small-scale drinking, sanitation, irrigation, and industry. These
agricultural developments that sustain a small, but uses frequently conflict with other freshwater
growing population. At this stage, the main interest services that rely on the maintenance of stream flow
is provisioning services: driven by agricultural or lake levels, such as power generation, fish
production, other ES are traded-off against the production, transport, waste removal, and
provision of food, fiber, fuel, etc. In areas where the recreation. Conflicts over surface water are often
soil is sufficiently fertile for degradation not to occur resolved by use of groundwater, which may
immediately, “subsistence” lifestyles are then influence surface water directly by reducing the
replaced by industrial agricultural operations and height of the water table and causing formerly
urban developments, while wildlands conversion perennial rivers to become seasonal. Many towns
continues, albeit at a lower rate. Regulating services in the USA currently use fossil water that is
now increase in importance because, as the impact extracted from aquifers at a rate that is too rapid to
on humans on the landscape grows, processes such allow for replenishment, an approach that simply
as water regulation and purification must be defers the problem until a future time when it is
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blindly hoped that the demand for freshwater will purification and the elimination of fish habitat
be lower. within these areas. People in this scenario typically
ignore these negative effects until they are a serious
problem. In contrast, there is some recognition that
cultural ES or cultural differences are essential to
ECOSYSTEM SERVICE TRADE-OFFS IN maintain.
THE MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM
ASSESSMENT SCENARIOS At the same time, the emphasis on free trade and
global policy within the Global Orchestration
scenario, causes many cultures to be subsumed into
One of the tasks of the Scenarios Working Group an overall “global culture.” For example, even
of the MA was to evaluate a set of plausible futures though some aspects of Asian culture may be
for ES on Earth: Global Orchestration, Order from integrated into western business practices, many of
Strength, Adapting Mosaic, and TechnoGarden the traditional practices, such as religious
(Carpenter et al. 2006, Cork et al. 2006). In all ceremonies, are eliminated as these cultures strive
scenarios, society modifies the supply of a variety to become part of the global community. This
of ES (Fig. 4). Broadly speaking, under the two process causes culturally important aspects of
“reactive” scenarios (Global Orchestration and ecosystems to be overlooked as well.
Order from Strength), the losses are greater than the
gains. Even in the “proactive” scenarios (Adapting The increased importance of meat in the diet in this
Mosaic and TechnoGarden), however, there are scenario is an example of an interaction between
slight relative reductions in the supply of ES in one global culture and provisioning ES. This results
of the dimensions considered. from a general increase in prosperity of previously
poor countries and a desire to achieve the lifestyle
In Global Orchestration, society focuses primarily of other wealthy cultures. The increased production
on the provisioning ES that generate tangible of meat causes extensification of agriculture to
products to improve human well-being. When provide animal feed. This extensification happens
environmental problems arise, they are dealt with at the cost of land-based biodiversity. This and other
according to the belief that economic growth can similar trade-offs are largely ignored in this
always provide resources to substitute for lost scenario, as this change in diet is viewed as a benefit
ecosystem functions. Under this scenario, society’s of Global Orchestration policies.
confidence in its ability to develop technological
replacements or enhancements for regulating and Order from Strength places little value on ES,
supporting ES, leads to these services being traded- because rich and poor countries are both focused on
off while provisioning ES are maximized. In many increasing their wealth and power through
cases, this confidence is misplaced either because economic growth and defense of their borders. All
the replacements are not possible or because they ES, but especially those that occur over large spatial
take so long and cost so much to develop that society or temporal scales, are likely to be traded-off, as
loses both economically and in terms of net well- there are no international mechanisms or incentives
being. to protect them. In rich countries, ecosystems are
believed to be robust and, therefore, are used
Because of the focus on global public goods and without restrictions in order to improve human well-
services like education, health, and cultural being. All that is required is that representative
fulfillment, in this scenario, cultural ES are treated samples are preserved in order to have a “natural
differently from other ES. Regulating and database” for developing appropriate technologies
supporting services are routinely ignored in trade- to repair or replace them. Provisioning ES are likely
off decisions, because in many instances in this to be favored without considering the impacts on
scenario, the potential decline in human well-being other ES, as they directly improve human well-
is deferred until cumulative loss of biodiversity being. Uses of ES that have negative impacts
passes some critical threshold. For example, spatially (e.g., harvesting that causes erosion,
increased human and economic well-being leads to decline in water or air quality, or loss of amenity)
urban growth into wetlands and along coastlines, are externalized by rich countries by encouraging
which in the short term, provides wealth, food, and poorer countries to perform these activities out of
comfort for humans, but ultimately causes the economic necessity. In poor countries, the
diminishment of nutrient cycling and water conservation of ES is not considered a priority,
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because alleviation of poverty by the fastest means The Adapting Mosaic scenario leads to many local
possible is essential. Thus substantial trade-offs management examples that build on previous
occur among all services. Little thought can be given experiences and deal with each set of trade-offs
to how environmental problems incurred through independently. For example, in the Euphrates-
trade-off decisions will be repairable at a later date. Tigris river (Cumming and Peterson 2005), the
initial trade-off decisions provide more provisioning
The lack of value placed on ES in Order from services (cotton production) at the expense of
Strength can perhaps best be illustrated by the supporting and regulating services (soil formation,
examples drawn from marine fisheries and the saline control on the land). However, working
plight of sub-Saharan Africa (Cumming and within the area, managers learn how to use the
Peterson 2005). In marine fisheries management in Adapting Mosaic of conserved areas to eventually
Order from Strength, the rich countries use their craft solutions that provide for “win–win”
wealth to control global fisheries while protecting interactions in provisioning, regulating, and
their own stocks. Their emphasis is not on supporting ES. Similarly, malaria control in Africa
maintaining adequate provisioning resources for (Cumming and Peterson 2005) involves the trade-
human well-being. Instead, they focus on off of a regulating ES (disease control) with a
controlling the global market for fisheries to provisioning service (fresh water), as water is
maximize economic gain. Exports of small pelagic drained to reduce mosquito breeding areas. Through
fishes are diverted for further production of meat (a the use of adaptive management on a fairly small
luxury food resource in rich countries) instead of scale, however, managers are able to craft solutions
being exported as food products to poor countries. that produce “win–win” solutions that provide both
In contrast to the rich countries, most of sub-Saharan fresh water and malaria control.
Africa no longer has food security in 2050, because
of the effects of climate modification and population TechnoGarden assigns high values to ES, but
growth in this region. The decision for policy mainly from a pragmatic perspective. This means
makers is not about trading off provisioning services that cultural ES are more likely to be traded-off and
for other ES, but instead is solely focused on lost than other types of services, especially as land
maintaining their own food security. management in some areas becomes dominated by
large corporations and people move toward urban
Under Adapting Mosaic, there is no dominant ES centers. Initially, there is great interest in the variety
trade-off paradigm, although trade-offs tend to of provisioning, regulating, and supporting ES as
decline over time. In the short term, societies are models for possible technological developments,
likely to engage in a variety of ES trade-offs as they but as key societal ES are identified and replaced
experiment with the supply of ES according to their by technological equivalents, society becomes more
local needs, especially provisioning services. No likely to trade-off any existing ES for their
single trade-off dominates, because conditions vary engineered alternatives. In the short term, society
globally and societies only focus on their local set will predominantly trade-off cultural ES for other
of conditions and problems. Over time, local types of services; in the long term, all types of
management improves throughout the world. Local services may be traded-off as key ES are identified
institutions and innovations reduce the number and and technologically optimized.
magnitude of trade-offs.
The emphasis on technological fixes leads to the
Unintended spatial trade-offs are a risk in Adapting rapid urbanization of many parts of the globe,
Mosaic, as the focus on local management of especially in Asia. As urban areas grow, traditional
ecosystems leads initially to competition between cultural resources such as temples and religious
regions and lack of effective strategic management sanctuaries are traded-off for urban areas. This is
at large scales. This scenario would eventually have not a long-term solution, however, as there still is a
led to breakdown of ES operating over large spatial need for cultural services, and many are
scales (e.g., maintenance of hydrological cycles, “reinvented:” the rebirth of Japanese urban gardens,
including groundwater and river flows, maintenance for instance, or the creation of salmon festivals in
of atmospheric composition, and regulation of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, and the Gojiro festivals
migratory pests and diseases) had not people in Japan.
organized regionally, nationally, and globally from
the bottom up. One of the most important conclusions from all
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scenarios is that the total pressure on ES worldwide provisioning, regulating, or cultural services (in that
will increase. Some of this is a consequence of the order). Supporting services are more likely to be
projected human population growth used in these “taken for granted.” Cultural ES are almost entirely
scenarios. Even in cases such as TechnoGarden and unquantified in scenario modeling; therefore, the
Adapting Mosaic (which attempt to mitigate some calculated model results do not fully capture losses
of these environmental pressures), increases in of these services that occur in the scenarios. The
provisioning ES will be traded-off against quantitative scenario models primarily capture the
supporting and regulating services. There is perhaps services that are perceived by society as more
no more compelling example than the combined important—provisioning and some regulating ES—
synergistic effect of greater use of greenhouse gases and thus do not fully capture trade-offs of cultural
(through increased human population and a greater and supporting services.
reliance on fossil fuel technology) and the decline
in carbon sequestration that has resulted from the However, each of the MA scenarios takes a different
conversion of forested areas into agriculture. Thus, approach to trade-offs. In Global Orchestration,
the ability of the biosphere to regulate climate society gives preference to provisioning ES. In
change—even with the technological fixes expected Order from Strength, present use of ES is favored
in TechnoGarden or the localized controls of over potential future uses. Under Adapting Mosaic,
Adapting Mosaic—will not be easily restored, as there is no dominant type of trade-off because most
the regulating and supporting services provided by decisions are made locally. However, the approach
forests are traded-off by the additional expansion of to trade-offs becomes more ecologically sound, as
agriculture, a provisioning service. previously unidentified trade-offs and synergisms
are revealed through learning and incorporated into
decision making. There is greater opportunity for
institutional solutions to trade-off problems in
CONCLUSIONS Adapting Mosaic. In TechnoGarden, cultural
services are undervalued and often traded-off in
management decisions. There is greater opportunity
Ecosystem services trade-offs arise from for technological solutions to trade-off problems in
management choices made by humans, who TechnoGarden.
intentionally or otherwise change the type,
magnitude, and relative mix of services provided by Effective decision making, which allows policy
ecosystems. Trade-offs occur when the provision of makers to include a comprehensive view of ES
one ES is reduced as a consequence of increased use trade-offs, should address the cumulative and
of another ES. Trade-offs can be classified in terms synergistic effects of their decisions. In addition,
of their temporal and spatial scales, and their degree policies need to acknowledge that, in many
of reversibility. Identifying trade-offs allows policy instances, short-term demands on ES will affect the
makers to understand the long-term effects of longer-term, larger-scale provision of these or other
preferring one ES over another, and the ES. Successful management policies will be those
consequences of focusing only on the present that incorporate lessons learned from prior decisions
provision of a service rather than its future. into future management actions. Managers should
complement their actions with monitoring programs
Important specific trade-offs are those between that, in addition to monitoring the short-term
agricultural production and other ES, such as provision of services, also monitor the long-term
biodiversity, water and soil quality, and water evolution of slowly changing variables. Policies can
availability for other present and future uses. then be developed to take into account ES trade-offs
Technological or institutional advances that at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Successful
mitigate such trade-offs will improve ES and strategies will recognize the inherent complexities
simplify the factors that must be considered when of ecosystem management and will work to develop
making decisions, however, these trade-offs need policies that minimize the effects of ES trade-offs.
to be understood and acknowledged at all steps of
the decision-making process.

Across all four MA scenarios and case study

examples, trade-off decisions show a preference for
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Responses to this article can be read online at: Development Corporation, Canberra, Australia.
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