Recession : A recession is a condition when the economic activity of a

region decreases significantly and lasts for a long time. A recession can
cause a decrease in people's income, an increase in unemployment,
and a decrease in investment.

Deflation: Deflation is a condition of a general decline in the prices of

goods and services over a certain period of time.

Inflation: Inflation is a general and continuous increase in the prices of

goods and services over a certain period of time. Inflation occurs when
price increases occur widely or result in price increases for other goods.

GDP: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the total value of

goods and services produced by a country in a certain period, usually
one year. GDP is an economic indicator used to assess the economic
health of a country and the level of prosperity of its people.

Non-farm payrolls

non farm payrolls itu the number of jobs in the united states economy
exclusing the farming sector private houselholds and the self employed
and it is released by the U.S bureau of labour statistics

it measures the total number of jobs aded or lost in the economy

and it shows an insight into the health of the labour market

irs important because

it is a strong indicator of the economic growth a rise in the numbers
shows a healthy economy with increase business growth and increased
consumer spending

it can also affect the interest rate as the fed also monitors the NFP data
it can affect the US dollar

it is collected by surveys across america on the business and

government agencies to gather employment data
Unemployment rate
unemployment rate is the percentage of labor force that is
unemployed

calculation
unemployment rate = ( Number of unemployed people/ total total labor
force) x 100

Significance
it is important as it reflects the health of the job market

impacts economy policy government use unemployment data to guide

economic policies such as job training programs or stimulus measures

social implicaton
high unemployment rate can lead to a increase poverty, social unrest
and decreased consumer spreading

unemployment rate doesnt account for underemployment and

discouraged worker

underemployment: people working part-time who want full time jon or

those below their skill level

Producer Price index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is an economic indicator that measures

the average change over time in the prices received by domestic
producers for their output.
Here's a breakdown:

What it measures:
Prices received by producers: It focuses on the prices that
businesses charge for their goods and services at the wholesale level
(before they reach consumers).

Inflation at the producer level: It provides an early indication of

potential future inflation for consumers, as increases in producer costs
often get passed on to consumers.
 Key features:

Tracks various sectors: The PPI covers a wide range of industries,

including manufacturing, mining, agriculture, and services.

Provides early warning: Since it measures prices before they reach

consumers, it can signal potential inflationary pressures earlier than
consumer price indexes.

Used for economic analysis: It's a valuable tool for policymakers,

businesses, and investors to track inflation trends, make informed
decisions, and adjust their strategies accordingly.

In simpler terms: Imagine you're a baker. The PPI would track the
changes in the prices of flour, eggs, and sugar (the ingredients you buy)
over time. If these prices increase, the PPI would rise, suggesting that
you might need to increase the price of your bread to maintain your profit
margins.

Key takeaway: The PPI is a crucial economic indicator that

helps us understand the dynamics of inflation and its potential impact the
broader economy.

Consumer Price Index

CPI stands for Consumer Price Index.

What it measures:

The CPI tracks changes in the prices of a "basket" of goods and

services commonly purchased by households.

This basket includes things like food, housing, transportation,

healthcare, and more.

How it works:

The prices of these goods and services are collected regularly from
various sources like retail stores, service providers, and rental markets.
 These prices are then compared over time to see how much they've
increased or decreased.

Why it's important:

Measures inflation: The CPI is the most widely used measure of

inflation.

impacts economic decisions:

Policymakers: Use it to guide monetary policy decisions (like interest
rates) to control inflation.
Businesses: Use it to adjust prices, wages, and investment decisions.

Consumers: Use it to understand how the cost of living is changing

and to make financial plans.

In simpler terms: Imagine you buy the same groceries every week. The
CPI would track how much the total cost of those groceries changes
over time. If the cost goes up significantly, it indicates that inflation is
likely occurring.

Key takeaway: The CPI is a vital economic indicator that provides

valuable information about the cost of living and the overall health of the
economy.

Core CPI

The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) is a measure of inflation that
excludes certain volatile components, such as food and energy prices.

What it is:

The Core CPI focuses on the underlying inflation trends by removing the
influence of food and energy prices, which can be subject to significant
and sudden price fluctuations due to factors like weather events, global
supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical events.

Why it's used:

Focus on underlying inflation: By excluding these volatile components,

the Core CPI provides a clearer picture of
underlying inflation trends.
 Policy decisions: Policymakers often pay close attention to the Core
CPI when making decisions about monetary policy (like interest rates),
as it can give a better indication of the longer-term inflation outlook.

In simpler terms: Imagine you're trying to understand the overall cost of

living, but you want to focus on the steady, ongoing price increases
rather than the big swings in the price of gas or groceries. The Core CPI
helps you do that.

Key takeaway: The Core CPI is a valuable tool for understanding

underlying inflation trends and making informed economic decisions.

Core retail sales

Core retail sales is a measure of consumer spending that excludes

volatile categories like automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and
food services. It's used as an economic indicator to gauge the health of
the economy.

How it's calculated

Core retail sales is calculated by subtracting the sales of volatile

categories from total retail sales

It's reported as a percentage change from the previous month

It's adjusted for seasonal factors (seasonal events, holidays, weather,

and cultural trends.

What it indicates

An increase in core retail sales indicates a healthy economy

A decrease in core retail sales indicates an unhealthy economy

Core retail sales can provide early signals of economic expansion

(Economic expansion is a period of sustained economic growth.) or
contraction (An economic contraction is a period when the economy is
producing fewer goods and services, and economic activity is
decreasing)
Why it's important

Core retail sales provides a clearer picture of underlying consumer

spending trends

Consumer spending accounts for a significant portion of GDP

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is a monthly report that

measures the health of the manufacturing sector in the Federal Reserve
Bank of Philadelphia's district. It's also known as the Philly Fed Index or
the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey.

What it's used for

The index can be used to forecast regional manufacturing conditions.

It's widely followed because it may provide an indication of conditions
throughout the United States.

The index can signal changes in employment, general prices, and

conditions within the manufacturing industry.

When it's released

The survey is released three weeks into the month and includes data
from the previous month.

The Philadelphia Fed survey includes a variety of measures of factory

activity, such as:
● Employment
● Working hours
● New and unfulfilled orders
● Delivery
● Inventory
● Delivery time
● Price paid
● Acceptable price
An index above 0 indicates growth in the manufacturing sector, while an
index below 0 indicates contraction.

Retail Sales
Retail sales is the sale of goods and services directly to consumers. It
can take place in-store or online.

What is included in retail sales?

Durable goods: Goods that have a long shelf life, like washing machines

Perishable goods: Goods that have a short shelf life, like groceries

Clothing: Clothing items for personal use

Electronics: Electronics for personal use

Food: Food items for personal use

Why is retail sales important?

Retail sales is a key indicator of a country's economic health

Retail sales can help increase a country's economy

Retail sales can help meet consumer needs

Retail sales can encourage product innovation

Initial Jobless Claim

Initial jobless claims are the number of people who file for unemployment
benefits for the first time in a given week. The U.S. Department of Labor
issues this data weekly as part of its Unemployment Insurance Weekly
Claims Report.

What do initial jobless claims indicate?

Economic indicator
Initial jobless claims are a leading economic indicator, meaning they can
predict future economic conditions.

Employment rate
Initial jobless claims and the employment rate have a negative
relationship. When initial claims increase, the employment rate
decreases, and vice versa.

Market impact

Initial jobless claims can impact the market, with higher-than-expected

readings generally being negative for the USD and vice versa