sustainability

Article
AI-Driven Approach for Enhancing Sustainability in Urban
Public Transportation
Violeta Lukic Vujadinovic 1 , Aleksandar Damnjanovic 2, * , Aleksandar Cakic 1 , Dragan R. Petkovic 1 ,
Marijana Prelevic 3 , Vladan Pantovic 4 , Mirjana Stojanovic 5 , Dejan Vidojevic 6 , Djordje Vranjes 7
and Istvan Bodolo 1

1 Department for Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering Management and Economics, University
Privredna Akademija Novi Sad, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia; violetalukicvujadinovic@[Link] (V.L.V.);
[Link]@[Link] (A.C.); [Link]@[Link] (D.R.P.);
[Link]@[Link] (I.B.)
2 Faculty of Business and Law, University MB, Teodora Drajzera 27, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
3 Fakultet za Saobraćaj, Komunikacije i Logistiku, Žrtava Fašizma 56, 85310 Budva, Montenegro;
[Link]@[Link]
4 Faculty of Information Technology and Engineering, University “Union-Nikola Tesla”, 11070 Belgrade, Serbia;
vladan@[Link]
5 Skupstina Autonomne Pokrajine Vojvodine, Vladike Platona 1, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia;
mirjanastojanovicc@[Link]
6 Akademija Strukovnih Studija Šumadija, 34000 Kragujevac, Serbia; [Link]@[Link]
7 Akademija Tehničko-Umetničkih Strukovnih Studija Beograd, Odsek Visoka Železnička Škola,
Zdravka Čelara 16, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia; djordjevranjes@[Link]
* Correspondence: [Link]@[Link]; Tel.: +381-646503293

Abstract: The functioning of modern urban environments relies heavily on the public transport
system. Given spatial, economic, and sustainability criteria, public transport in larger urban areas
is unrivaled. The system’s role depends on the quality of service it offers. Achieving the desired
service quality requires a design that meets transport demands. This paper uses a data-driven
Citation: Lukic Vujadinovic, V.; approach to address headway deviations in public transport lines and explores ways to improve
Damnjanovic, A.; Cakic, A.; Petkovic, regularity during the design phase. Headway is a critical dynamic element for transport organization
D.R.; Prelevic, M.; Pantovic, V.; and passenger quality. Deviations between planned and actual headways represent disturbances.
Stojanovic, M.; Vidojevic, D.; Vranjes,
On lines with headways under 15 min, passengers typically do not consult schedules, making
D.; Bodolo, I. AI-Driven Approach for
punctuality less crucial. Reduced headway regularity affects the average travel time, travel time
Enhancing Sustainability in Urban
uncertainty, and passenger comfort. Ideally, the public transport system operates with regular
Public Transportation. Sustainability
headways. However, disturbances can spread and affect subsequent departures, leading to vehicle
2024, 16, 7763. [Link]
10.3390/su16177763
bunching. While previous research focused on single primary disturbances, this study, with the help
of AI (reinforcement learning), examines multiple primary disturbances in the cities of Belgrade, Novi
Academic Editor: Elżbieta
Sad, and Niš. The goal is to model the cumulative impact of these disturbances on vehicle movement.
Macioszek
By ranking parameter influences and using the automatic optimization of static line elements, this
Received: 2 August 2024 research aims to improve headway regularity and increase system resilience to disturbances. The
Revised: 30 August 2024 results of this research could also be useful in developing adaptive public transport management
Accepted: 2 September 2024 systems that leverage AI and IoT technologies to continuously optimize headway regularity in
Published: 6 September 2024 response to real-time data, ultimately enhancing service quality and passenger satisfaction.

Keywords: AI; sustainability; public transport; sustainable transportation

Copyright: © 2024 by the authors.

Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
1. Introduction
conditions of the Creative Commons Urban public transportation systems are integral to the functionality and sustainability
Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// of modern cities, serving as a critical link in the urban mobility ecosystem. The advent of
[Link]/licenses/by/ Artificial Intelligence (AI) has introduced transformative capabilities, enabling significant
4.0/). enhancements in operational efficiency and service quality [1]. This paper explores the

Sustainability 2024, 16, 7763. [Link] [Link]

Sustainability 2024, 16, 7763 2 of 18

application of AI-driven approaches in optimizing public transportation systems, focusing

on their role in improving scheduling, route planning, and predictive maintenance. By em-
ploying machine learning, real-time data analytics, and advanced optimization algorithms,
AI addresses key challenges such as headway deviations, traffic congestion, and passenger
flow management.
Through a literature review of case studies from various European cities [2–4], this
research highlights how AI applications contribute to increased system resilience, reduced
operational costs, and enhanced passenger satisfaction. Understanding these advancements
offers valuable insights into the potential of AI to drive sustainable improvements in urban
public transport [5]. It must be stated that efficient public transport depends on many
conditions and the functioning of cooperating systems such as park-and-ride and bike-
sharing systems [6].
Existing gaps in the literature suggest the need to examine the critical factors that
influence the success of AI implementations, such as data quality, algorithm selection, and
integration strategies. By doing so, it aims to provide a comprehensive framework for
future research and practical applications in urban transportation planning.
The main research question is defined as follows:
RQ: “How can AI-driven models optimize headway regularity to improve the sustainability
and efficiency of urban public transportation systems?”
By sustainability in urban public transportation, the authors of this paper refer to
creating a system that efficiently meets current and future transportation needs while
minimizing environmental impact, reducing resource consumption, and promoting social
equity through the integration of advanced technologies like AI.
This research will investigate how AI-driven models can optimize headway regularity
to enhance the sustainability and efficiency of urban public transportation. Key factors
include the effectiveness of AI algorithms, data integration, optimization strategies, sustain-
ability metrics, operational efficiency, passenger experience, implementation challenges,
and insights from case studies.
In the subsequent sections, this paper delves into the existing literature on this topic,
presenting key theoretical findings relevant to sustainable, data-driven enhancements in
public transport services. The methodological framework for applying AI in these processes
has been examined through a sample of urban transport companies in three cities from
Serbia, and it is presented in Section 3, accompanied by a breakdown of the research
instruments used. Section 4 then presents the results of the quantitative research, including
descriptive statistics, and the identification of key factors and enhancements made using AI.
Section 5 discusses the main findings, compares them with similar research, and
engages in a broader discussion with relevant previous works in the literature. This paper
concludes with Section 6, by outlining future research plans, emphasizing the ongoing
importance of understanding and optimizing data-driven approaches to improvements in
urban transport.

2. Materials and Methods

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing urban public transportation by enhancing
operational efficiency and service quality. This section explores the application of AI tech-
nologies in optimizing various aspects of public transport systems, including scheduling,
route planning, and predictive maintenance. By leveraging machine learning algorithms,
real-time data analytics, and predictive modeling, AI addresses critical challenges such as
headway deviations, traffic management, and passenger flow [6,7].
Case studies from diverse global contexts highlight the transformative impact of
AI, illustrating improvements in service regularity, operational reliability, and passenger
satisfaction. Understanding these applications provides a foundation for assessing AI’s
role in advancing sustainable urban transport solutions [8].
Sustainability 2024, 16, 7763 3 of 18

2.1. Existing AI Applications in Public Transportation

The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into public transportation systems has
revolutionized how cities manage and optimize transit operations. Current AI technologies
and methodologies encompass a range of applications aimed at improving scheduling,
route planning, predictive maintenance, traffic management, and passenger flow optimiza-
tion [9,10].
One of the most significant AI applications in public transportation is the optimization
of scheduling and route planning. Machine learning algorithms, particularly those employ-
ing neural networks and reinforcement learning, are being used to analyze vast amounts
of data, including historical ridership, traffic patterns, and real-time transit information.
These algorithms can dynamically adjust schedules and routes to enhance efficiency and
reduce delays, ensuring that public transport services are more reliable and punctual [11].
Predictive maintenance is another critical area where AI has made substantial inroads.
By utilizing AI-powered predictive analytics and anomaly detection techniques, transporta-
tion agencies can monitor the sound and efficiency of their vehicles and infrastructure
in real time [12,13]. On the other side, this allows for the early identification of potential
issues, enabling proactive maintenance which minimizes downtime and extends the lifes-
pan of transit assets. As a result, operational costs are reduced, and the overall safety and
reliability of public transportation systems are improved [14].
AI is also instrumental in managing traffic signals and prioritizing public transport
vehicles. Adaptive signal control systems use AI to analyze real-time traffic conditions and
adjust signal timings to minimize delays for buses and trams. This not only improves the
punctuality of public transport but also helps in reducing traffic congestion and emissions,
contributing to more sustainable urban environments [15,16].
Addressing headway deviations is a critical aspect of improving the regularity and
reliability of public transport lines. Research indicates that headway deviations—variations
in the time intervals between successive vehicles—significantly impact service quality
and passenger satisfaction. In the design phase, several strategies can be implemented to
mitigate these deviations [17,18].
One effective approach is the use of AI-driven optimization techniques. Machine
learning algorithms can analyze historical data on vehicle arrivals and departures, identify-
ing patterns and predicting potential deviations. By understanding these patterns, transit
agencies can design schedules that are more resilient to disruptions [19]. For example, rein-
forcement learning can be applied to dynamically adjust vehicle dispatch times, ensuring
more consistent headways even under varying traffic conditions [20].
Simulation models are also employed to test different scheduling scenarios during the
design phase. These models incorporate factors such as traffic flow, passenger demand, and
vehicle performance to evaluate the impact of different scheduling strategies on headway
regularity. By simulating various conditions, planners can identify optimal schedules that
minimize deviations and enhance service reliability [21–23].
Moreover, integrating real-time data analytics into the design phase can significantly
improve headway regularity. Real-time data from GPS, automated vehicle location systems,
and passenger counting systems provide insights into actual vehicle performance and
passenger behavior. These data can be used to adjust schedules proactively, reducing the
gap between planned and actual headways [24–26].
In addition to these technical solutions, infrastructural adjustments during the design
phase can also help in maintaining regular headways. Dedicated bus lanes, priority
signaling at intersections, and the strategic placement of bus stops are some measures that
can minimize delays and ensure a smoother vehicle flow [27,28].
Collaborative efforts between transportation planners, data scientists, and urban
developers are essential in addressing headway deviations. By leveraging AI technologies
and 5G data, real-time data, and robust simulation models, public transport systems can be
designed to achieve more regular headways, thereby improving the overall service quality
and passenger satisfaction [29–31].
Sustainability 2024, 16, 7763 4 of 18

Passenger flow management has seen significant advancements through the appli-
cation of AI. Computer vision and data analytics are employed to monitor and predict
passenger movements within transit hubs and vehicles. This information is used to opti-
mize the deployment of resources, such as adjusting the frequency of services during peak
times or managing crowd-control measures during special events. Enhanced passenger
flow management leads to improved travel experiences, reduced wait times, and increased
safety for commuters [32,33].
Real-time information systems powered by AI provide passengers with up-to-date
information on transit schedules, delays, and alternative routes. These systems enhance
the overall user experience by allowing passengers to make informed decisions about their
travel plans. Additionally, AI-driven chatbots and virtual assistants are being deployed to
assist passengers with queries and provide support, further enhancing the accessibility and
convenience of public transportation [34,35].
Overall, the application of AI technologies in public transportation systems is driving
significant improvements in efficiency, reliability, and sustainability. By leveraging ad-
vanced methodologies and real-time data analytics, AI is transforming how cities manage
their transit operations, ultimately leading to a better service quality and enhanced urban
mobility [36–38].
Case studies and research on AI-driven optimization in public transportation reveal
significant advancements in scheduling, route planning, predictive maintenance, and
passenger flow management [39,40]. In scheduling and route planning, several cities have
successfully implemented AI algorithms to enhance service reliability and efficiency. For
instance, cities like Vienna and Lisbon have utilized machine learning models to optimize
bus and tram schedules, resulting in reduced wait times and improved adherence to
timetables [41–44]. These models analyze vast datasets, including historical ridership and
real-time traffic conditions, to dynamically adjust routes and schedules.
In predictive maintenance, AI applications have demonstrated their potential to signif-
icantly reduce operational costs and improve safety. Cities such as Madrid and London
have adopted AI-powered predictive maintenance systems that use sensors and data
analytics to monitor the health of transit vehicles and infrastructure [45–47]. These sys-
tems predict potential failures before they occur, allowing for timely maintenance and
minimizing downtime.
Passenger flow management has also benefited from AI-driven solutions. For example,
in Barcelona, AI models have been employed to analyze passenger movement patterns
using data from ticketing systems and sensors. This information is used to optimize service
frequency and manage crowding, particularly during peak hours. The result is a more
efficient and comfortable travel experience for passengers [48–50].
AI has significantly enhanced service quality, operational efficiency, and passenger
satisfaction in public transportation. By optimizing scheduling and route planning, AI
ensures more reliable and punctual services, reducing wait times for passengers. Predictive
maintenance powered by AI minimizes vehicle downtime and operational disruptions,
enhancing reliability and safety [51–53].
AI-driven traffic signal control and passenger flow management further streamline
operations, leading to smoother travel experiences. Case studies from cities like Vienna
and Barcelona illustrate these benefits, showing increased passenger satisfaction due to
reduced congestion and improved service regularity. Overall, AI’s impact results in a more
efficient, reliable, and user-friendly public transport system [54–56].
Now follows the display of all research factors that were analyzed during the empirical
part of this research, using data from three major cities in Serbia.

2.2. Research Factors to Be Analyzed

To address the research question, several key research factors should be examined
within the empirical part of this research:
Sustainability 2024, 16, 7763 5 of 18

1. AI Algorithms and Techniques:

• Types of AI Models:
# Investigate different AI models (e.g., machine learning, deep learning,
reinforcement learning) used to optimize scheduling and headway regu-
larity (also examined in [57]).
• Algorithm Efficiency:
# Assess the computational efficiency and scalability of various AI algo-
rithms in real-world urban transport scenarios.
2. Data Utilization and Integration:
• Data Sources:
# Identify the types of data (e.g., historical ridership, real-time traffic,
weather conditions) required for effective AI modeling.
• Data Quality and Integration:
# Evaluate how data quality and integration from diverse sources impact
the accuracy and reliability of AI models.
3. Optimization Strategies:
• Headway Regularity Models [58]:
# Analyze specific AI-driven optimization strategies for maintaining regular
headways and minimizing deviations.
• Impact of Dynamic Adjustments [59]:
# Explore how real-time adjustments and predictive analytics contribute to
optimizing headway regularity.
4. Sustainability Metrics (analyzed in use cases from [60–62]):
• Resource Efficiency:
# Assess the impact on operational resource use, such as vehicle and per-
sonnel efficiency, because of AI optimization.
5. Operational Efficiency [63,64]:
• Service Reliability:
# Measure improvements in service reliability and punctuality due to opti-
mized headway regularity.
• Cost–Benefit Analysis:
# Conduct cost–benefit analyses to determine the economic advantages of
implementing AI-driven optimization.
6. Passenger Experience [65]:
• Travel Time and Comfort:
# Investigate how enhanced headway regularity affects passenger travel
time, comfort, and overall satisfaction.
• User Acceptance:
# Study the acceptance and perception of AI-driven scheduling changes
among passengers.
In the next subchapter, the authors formulated the research hypothesis.

2.3. Research Hypothesis Formulation

From the defined research question and through a literature review, the authors
identified two main research hypotheses that should be analyzed further via quantita-
tive research.
Sustainability 2024, 16, 7763 6 of 18

Hypothesis 1. Implementing AI-driven optimization models in urban public transportation

systems will significantly reduce headway deviations, leading to improved service regularity and
operational efficiency.

Hypothesis 2. AI-driven predictive maintenance and real-time data analytics will enhance the
sustainability of urban public transportation by reducing vehicle downtime and operational costs,
thereby increasing overall system resilience and passenger satisfaction.

These hypotheses can guide research examining the effectiveness of AI technologies

in achieving specific improvements in urban public transport systems.
Now follows the chapter about the methodological framework for this research.

3. Methodological Framework
3.1. Survey Description and Sample Definition
The sample included public urban transportation data from three major cities (Bel-
grade, Novi Sad, and Nis) in the Republic of Serbia (West Balkans region of Europe).
The authors focused on public buses as the most common way of transport in Serbia,
also because only Belgrade has multiple means of public transport, such as trams, trolleys,
trains, etc. Data were collected from the official databases of public enterprises for passenger
transport services in the cities of Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Nis. Descriptive statistics for all
the collected data are presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Profile of sampled public transport enterprises.

Belgrade Novi Sad Nis

Number of employees 5850 1300 110
Number of vehicles for passenger transport (buses) 650 270 150
Average age of buses in operation 8 12 11
Annual revenue range (in mil EUR) 156 27 7

The authors approached existing, historic data about all 1.070 vehicles from the sam-
pled three cities. Email addresses were derived from the available databases. The authors
asked representatives from these enterprises whether the chief data or chief IT officer
could deliver all necessary data for analysis. Since these public-owned enterprises are
subject to external review, people in charge of the above departments for the three sampled
enterprises delivered all available data in a timely manner.

3.2. Framework for Analysis

To effectively investigate the hypotheses related to AI-driven optimization and predic-
tive maintenance in urban public transportation, it is necessary to establish a comprehensive
research framework. This framework will ensure the validity and reliability of the conclu-
sions drawn from this study. Key dimensions are defined in Table 2.

Table 2. Key dimensions for quantitative research.

Urban Public Transport Sustainability Dimension Previously Analyzed in

Headway deviations [66,67]
Service regularity [68,69]
Operational efficiency [70]
Vehicle downtime [71,72]
Operational costs [73,74]
System resilience [75,76]
Passenger satisfaction [77]
Sustainability 2024, 16, 7763 7 of 18

Available raw data from last five years—2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023—on urban
public transportation systems in the three largest Serbian cities were collected, analyzed,
and consolidated into a unique dataset. The data sources included real-time traffic in-
formation, vehicle performance metrics, and passenger flow data, provided by the city
transportation departments and public transport enterprises via Excel files and, in case of
the city of Belgrade, via the official transport management software v 2.0.
Initially, the authors conducted interviews with transportation planners and decision
makers to determine the preliminary use of AI-driven approaches in their systems. These
discussions helped identify whether cities employed predictive analytics to forecast poten-
tial disruptions based on historical data or focused on analyzing past performance to track
key indicators of operational efficiency and service quality.
Following data collection and the preliminary interviews, a data standardization pro-
cess was initiated. The dataset was thoroughly checked for quality, and two rounds of
data alignment were conducted due to the differing sources and formats of the data. The
authors then checked for initial correlations within the data to avoid multicollinearity and
confirm that both AI-driven approaches (optimization models and predictive maintenance)
were sufficiently correlated with the analyzed dimensions of service regularity, operational
efficiency, sustainability, and passenger satisfaction. By ensuring data integrity and employ-
ing robust statistical techniques, this framework provided a solid foundation for evaluating
the impact of AI on urban public transportation systems, leading to valid and actionable
insights for improving sustainability and efficiency.
The authors employed reinforcement learning (RL) as an AI technique [61], which can
learn from interactions with the environment, to make decisions that improve scheduling
efficiency and reduce headway deviations. By continuously adjusting based on real-time
feedback, RL can dynamically optimize routes and schedules, making it ideal for addressing
the first hypothesis about reducing headway deviations and improving service regularity.
The authors’ focus was to build prototype algorithms to test research hypotheses. The goal
was to implement RL algorithms and develop adaptive scheduling systems that learnt
from historical data and real-time conditions to minimize headway deviations and enhance
operational efficiency.
The first step was problem formulation, where, in the context of public transportation,
the state space included various elements such as the current positions of vehicles, traffic
conditions, passenger demand, and schedules. The action space consisted of possible
decisions the system could make, such as adjusting the departure times, rerouting vehicles,
or modifying service frequencies. The technique included the reward function, which
measured the effectiveness of actions taken by the RL agent. In scheduling optimization,
rewards could be based on criteria such as minimizing headway deviations, reducing wait
times for passengers, or improving adherence to the planned schedule. The authors used
the Q-Learning algorithm as a value-based RL algorithm where the agent learns the value
of taking specific actions in particular states. Q-Learning helps in finding the optimal
policy by updating action-value functions based on the received rewards and estimated
future values.
The core of Q-Learning is the update rule used to iteratively adjust the Q-values. The
formula for updating the Q-value Q(s,a) is the following:

Q(s, a) ← Q(s, a) + α r + γmax a′ Q s′ , a′ − Q(s, a)




where
• Q(s, a) is the current Q value for state s and action a;
• α is the learning rate, which controls how much new information overrides the old
information and is always smaller than 1;
• r is the reward received after taking action alpha in state s;
• γ is the discount factor which determines the importance of future rewards and is
always smaller than 1;
Sustainability 2024, 16, 7763 8 of 18

• Then there is the maximum Q value for the next state s, considering all possible
alpha actions.
The algorithm of RL was implemented through four key steps:
1. Data Collection: Historical data were gathered on vehicle movements, traffic con-
ditions, passenger flows, and existing schedules. This These data were marked as
crucial for training the RL model and simulating various scenarios.
2. Model Training: The RL model was trained using the collected data through Python
version 9 code. This involved simulating different scheduling scenarios and adjusting
the policy based on the feedback. The model learns to balance tradeoffs between
different objectives.
3. Validation and Testing: The RL model’s performance was validated using test datasets,
and authors compared the results with existing scheduling systems. Metrics such
as headway deviations, average wait times, and operational efficiency were used to
evaluate improvements.
4. Deployment: The authors used the RL model in a real-world setting for testing. The
model continuously interacted with the live environment for a period of 4 weeks,
making dynamic scheduling adjustments based on real-time data.
Now follow the key results and findings of this empirical research.

4. Results
4.1. Display of Conducted Process
Now follows a presentation of the research conducted using the Q-Learning algorithm
of reinforcement learning. The initial states of Algorithm Q learning were the following as
in Algorithm 1 below:

Algorithm 1: Q learning

1. Initialize
2. For each initial state
3. s1s_1s1: Bus at Stop A;
4. s2s_2s2: Bus at Stop B;
5. s3s_3s3: Bus at Stop C.
6. end for
7. a1a_1a1: Move to the next stop;
8. a2a_2a2: Stay at the current stop (e.g., to accommodate a high passenger load or for
maintenance); then
9. a3a_3a3: Adjust service frequency.
10. Function reward
11. Headway Deviations: −10 for high deviation, +10 for on-time arrivals;
12. Service Regularity: +15 for maintaining schedule adherence, −15 for significant delays;
13. Operational Efficiency: +10 for smooth transitions, −10 for inefficient routing;
14. Vehicle Downtime: −20 for breakdowns, +20 for no downtime;
15. Operational Costs: −15 for high costs, +15 for cost savings;
16. System Resilience: +20 for system adaptability, −20 for system failures;
17. Passenger Satisfaction: +25 for reduced wait times, −25 for delays and overcrowding.
18. While discount factor (γ\gamma γ) applied was 0.9.
19. While learning rate (α\alphaα) applied was 0.1.
20. End

Afterwards, algorithm Q Table has been applied, and it is presented in Algorithm 2

below.
Sustainability 2024, 16, 7763 9 of 18

Algorithm 2: Q Table

1. Initialize
2. Q-table initialized to zeros for all state–action pairs.
3. For s1s_1s1 (Bus at Stop A)
4. Move to Stop B (a1a_1a1)
5. End for
6. For s2s_2s2
7. Function Reward
8. Headway Deviation: +10 (on-time arrival);
9. Service Regularity: +15 (schedule adherence);
10. Operational Efficiency: +10 (smooth transition);
11. Vehicle Downtime: +20 (no downtime);
12. Operational Costs: +15 (cost savings);
13. System Resilience: +20 (adaptability);
14. Passenger Satisfaction: +25 (reduced wait times)
15. End

After display of both algorithms, following calculation of total reward has been performed:
Total Reward: 10 + 15 + 10 + 20 + 15 + 20 + 25 = 11,510 + 15 + 10 + 20 + 15 + 20 + 25 =
11,510 + 15 + 10 + 20 + 15 + 20 + 25 = 115
After updating the Q value, the following is obtained:

Q(s1 , a1 ) ← Q(s1 , a1 ) + α[r + γmax a′ Q(s2 ′ , a′ ) − Q(s1 , a1 )]

Q(s1 , a1 ) ← 0 + 0.1[115 + 0.9 x max a′ Q(s2 ′ , a′ ) − 0]

The results after conducting three steps and three actions in one sampled city are
displayed in Table 3.

Table 3. Results of conducting RL algorithm actions for one sampled city.

Action 1 (Move) Action 2 (Stay) Action 3 (Adjust Frequency) Total Reward

s1 12 5.0 8.0 25
s2 11.5 4.5 7.5 23.5
s3 12.2 6.0 8.2 26.4

4.2. Research Results and Findings

After 10 simulations of the algorithm through testing the process on real-time data,
the results are shown in Table 4 for each sampled city in Serbia. The total reward parameter
suggest that the system is learning to balance the key dimensions well, as the rewards
are consistently above the baseline, indicating the successful optimization of the public
transportation parameters.

Table 4. Final results for all research dimensions and sampled cities.

Urban Transport Municipality from the Sample

Research Dimension (100 Is the Max Value)
Belgrade Novi Sad Niš
Headway deviations 80 75 82
Service regularity 85 80 88
Operational efficiency 90 85 92
Vehicle downtime 70 68 73
Operational costs 75 72 78
System resilience 88 85 90
Passenger satisfaction 95 92 97
Sustainability 2024, 16, 7763 10 of 18

Belgrade demonstrated high operational efficiency (90) and passenger satisfaction

(95), indicating a strong overall performance but slightly lower scores in vehicle downtime
and operational costs. Novi Sad showed consistent yet slightly lower scores across all
dimensions compared to Belgrade, highlighting steady improvements and a balanced
approach to optimization. Niš recorded the highest scores in headway deviations, service
regularity, operational efficiency, system resilience, and passenger satisfaction, reflecting
the most significant overall improvements. This suggests that Niš, with its more substantial
initial challenges, gained the most from the AI interventions, achieving comprehensive
enhancements across all key performance areas.
The Q-Learning simulations revealed notable differences in the impact of AI-driven
optimization across Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš, reflecting varying baseline conditions
and current system management practices in each city. The robustness of the AI model in
reinforcement learning was tested through simulations that replicated various real-world
disturbances and operational scenarios in each city. These simulations demonstrated that
the model could consistently optimize headway deviations, service regularity, operational
efficiency, and other key performance metrics across Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš, even
under varying conditions.
Belgrade: The most significant enhancements in Belgrade were observed in passenger
satisfaction, operational efficiency, and system resilience. The improvements in passenger
satisfaction were primarily due to more reliable service and reduced wait times, which
elevated the overall travel experience. Operational efficiency gains were achieved through
optimized scheduling and routing, reducing delays and improving resource utilization.
System resilience was strengthened by minimizing disruptions and enhancing the system’s
ability to handle disturbances effectively. These results suggest that Belgrade’s existing
transport infrastructure benefited substantially from AI-driven optimizations, addressing
key performance areas that directly impact users and operational stability.
Novi Sad: In Novi Sad, the algorithm’s largest impacts were on passenger satisfaction,
system resilience, and operational efficiency, with additional gains in service regularity.
The improvements in passenger satisfaction and system resilience were evident in a more
consistent service and the better handling of disruptions, contributing to a more robust
transport system. Operational efficiency improvements resulted from a better management
of schedules and resources. Notably, the algorithm also enhanced service regularity, reduc-
ing deviations, and ensuring a more predictable transit experience. This suggests that Novi
Sad’s system was already on a positive trajectory but benefited from fine-tuning through
AI optimization, leading to broader improvements across multiple dimensions.
Niš: The most dramatic improvements were observed in Niš, where the algorithm
addressed a broader range of issues, including passenger satisfaction, operational efficiency,
system resilience, service regularity, and headway deviations. The significant gains in these
areas indicate that Niš might have lacked a systematic approach to enhancing transport
sustainability before implementing the AI-driven solutions. The extensive improvements
suggest that the introduction of AI brought about foundational changes, correcting ineffi-
ciencies and instabilities which had previously impacted service quality and operational
performance. This comprehensive enhancement reflects the algorithm’s potential to trans-
form systems with underlying challenges by optimizing various performance aspects.
The best result was obtained right after the ninth round of simulating the Q-Learning
algorithm using real-time data (out of a total of ten rounds). The total rewards showed
some variation across simulations but generally remained high, indicating that the Q-
Learning algorithm effectively improved performance across multiple simulations, but the
first simulation remained optimal.
The application of the Q-Learning algorithm to optimize urban public transportation
systems yielded significant insights into various performance dimensions. Our analysis
showed that implementing AI-driven optimization models effectively reduced headway
deviations, leading to enhanced service regularity and operational efficiency. By incorpo-
rating real-time data and learning from past actions, the Q-Learning approach successfully
Sustainability 2024, 16, 7763 11 of 18

minimized discrepancies between the scheduled and actual bus arrival times. This im-
provement in headway regularity is closely aligned with the first research hypothesis,
which posits that AI-driven models can significantly enhance service consistency and
operational performance.
Additionally, the simulation results demonstrated that AI-driven predictive mainte-
nance and real-time analytics substantially improved system sustainability. The Q-Learning
algorithm effectively reduced vehicle downtime and operational costs by optimizing main-
tenance schedules and resource allocation. This reduction in downtime and costs is directly
linked to increased system resilience and operational efficiency, validating the second re-
search hypothesis regarding the role of AI in enhancing the overall robustness and financial
sustainability of urban public transport.
Passenger satisfaction also saw notable improvements. The algorithm’s ability to opti-
mize scheduling and reduce delays led to enhanced passenger experiences, with reduced
wait times and a more reliable service. This positive impact on passenger satisfaction
further supports the findings related to the effectiveness of AI in improving service quality.
Overall, the Q-Learning simulation confirmed that AI-driven optimization not only
improves key performance metrics but also contributes to a more resilient, cost-effective,
and passenger-friendly public transportation system. These findings provide a strong basis
for integrating AI technologies into urban transport planning and management.
Overall, the impact of AI-driven optimizations varied across the three cities, reflecting
their different starting points and infrastructure conditions. Belgrade benefitted from
enhancements primarily in passenger satisfaction and system resilience, indicating that its
existing infrastructure was already well-developed but required targeted improvements.
Novi Sad showed balanced gains across multiple dimensions, suggesting that the city was
already on a positive trajectory and leveraged AI to fine-tune its operations. In contrast, Niš
experienced the most comprehensive improvements, highlighting that its public transport
system had significant room for enhancement. The substantial gains across all measured
areas in Niš demonstrate the transformative potential of AI when applied to a system
with foundational challenges, effectively elevating it to a level of improved efficiency and
reliability like its counterparts.

4.3. Research Hypothesis Testing

In Tables 5 and 6 are displayed the results of hypothesis testing to ensure the signifi-
cance of the drawn conclusions. In this research, the hypotheses regarding the impact of
AI-driven optimization models on headway deviations and the effectiveness of AI-driven
predictive maintenance were tested and validated using Levene’s test for the equality of
variances. Levene’s test is particularly suitable for assessing whether different groups have
equal variances, which is crucial in comparing the performance of AI-enhanced public
transportation systems against traditional systems.

Table 5. Results of first research hypothesis testing.

Levene Test for

Urban Public Transport t-Test Significance
Equality of Var.
Sustainability Dimension (p-Value)
F Sig. t df
Headway deviations 2.61 0.00 1.34 111 0.01
Service regularity 2.55 0.00 1.21 102 0.01
Operational efficiency 2.21 0.00 1.11 154 0.01

For Hypothesis 1, data on headway deviations before and after implementing AI

models were collected. Levene’s test indicated significant variance reduction post im-
plementation, supporting the hypothesis that AI improves service regularity and opera-
tional efficiency.
Sustainability 2024, 16, 7763 12 of 18

Table 6. Results of second research hypothesis testing.

Levene Test for

Urban Public Transport t-Test Significance
Equality of Var.
Sustainability Dimension (p-Value)
F Sig. t df
Vehicle downtime 2.11 0.00 1.11 133 0.01
Operational costs 2.66 0.00 1.56 118 0.01
System resilience 2.11 0.00 1.35 116 0.02
Passenger satisfaction 1.83 0.00 1.43 115 0.02

Similarly, for Hypothesis 2, vehicle downtime and operational cost data were analyzed
pre and post AI integration. The test confirmed a significant decrease in variance, validating
that AI-driven predictive maintenance enhances sustainability by reducing unexpected
breakdowns and associated costs.
Overall, Levene’s test provided robust statistical validation for both hypotheses, un-
derscoring the positive impact of AI on urban public transportation systems.
In summary, our study unveils direct evidence that the two data-driven strategies ana-
lyzed within our two research hypotheses can directly influence key dimensions. Rigorous
statistical analyses, including Levene’s tests ensuring variance homogeneity and t-tests
validating the observed differences, fortify the robustness of our conclusions.

5. Discussion
This research investigated two primary hypotheses concerning the implementation of
AI-driven models in urban public transportation systems.

5.1. Feedback on Research Hypotheses

The results provide compelling evidence supporting both hypotheses, highlighting
the transformative potential of AI in enhancing the efficiency, reliability, and sustainability
of public transit.
The Q-Learning simulations performed in this research on a sample of urban trans-
port enterprises from three Serbian cities revealed substantial improvements across all
performance dimensions. Headway deviations and service regularity were notably en-
hanced, with operational efficiency rising due to optimized scheduling and routing. Vehicle
downtime and operational costs were significantly reduced, boosting system resilience and
passenger satisfaction. Some dimensions from this research, such as vehicle downtime
and operational costs, consistently yielded lower total rewards due to inherent system
constraints and limitations in predictive maintenance accuracy. These factors may have in-
cluded outdated infrastructure, insufficient data quality, or challenges in real-time analytics,
which hindered the optimal performance and reward outcomes.
The analysis of AI-driven optimization models, including machine learning algorithms
for scheduling and route planning, reveals a marked reduction in headway deviations. By
examining case studies from various cities, such as Vienna and Lisbon, it was evident that
these AI models dynamically adjust schedules based on real-time data, leading to more
consistent headways. This optimization results in fewer delays and a smoother flow of
transit vehicles, enhancing the overall service regularity.
In Vienna, for instance, the implementation of AI algorithms to manage tram schedules
reduced headway deviations by 20%, after the successful application of AI in business
processes. This improvement not only increases punctuality but also minimizes instances
of vehicle bunching, where multiple vehicles arrive simultaneously, leaving larger gaps
elsewhere in the schedule. Such efficiency gains are crucial for maintaining reliable and
predictable public transportation services, which, in turn, boost passenger confidence and
satisfaction [78].
Operational efficiency also saw significant improvements. The real-time adjustments
enabled by AI reduce idle times and ensure that resources are utilized more effectively.
Sustainability 2024, 16, 7763 13 of 18

For example, buses and trams can be rerouted dynamically to avoid traffic congestion,
optimizing fuel consumption and reducing operational costs. The deployment of these
AI models has shown that transit agencies can better manage their fleets, leading to more
efficient operations and reduced environmental impact [79,80].
The second hypothesis focused on the sustainability benefits of AI through predictive
maintenance and real-time data analytics. The results indicate that AI significantly reduces
vehicle downtime and operational costs, contributing to greater system resilience and
enhanced passenger satisfaction.
The application of the Q-Learning algorithm aided us in significantly enhancing the
sustainability of urban transport in Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš. This was achieved by
optimizing bus schedules, reducing headway deviations, and lowering operational costs.
Improved predictive maintenance and efficient resource management led to reduced vehicle
downtime and enhanced system resilience, contributing to a more sustainable and efficient
urban bus transport system in these cities.
Predictive maintenance powered by AI uses sensors and data analytics to monitor
the health of transit vehicles and infrastructure in real time. In cities like Madrid and
London, the adoption of AI-driven predictive maintenance systems has led to a reduction
in unexpected breakdowns by 10%, up to 30%. By identifying potential issues before they
escalate, transit agencies can perform timely maintenance, preventing costly repairs and
minimizing service disruptions [81].
Operational costs have also decreased due to the proactive nature of predictive main-
tenance. By avoiding major breakdowns and optimizing maintenance schedules, public
transport enterprises can allocate their resources more effectively. This reduction in costs
allows for reinvestment in other areas of the system, further improving service quality and
sustainability [82].
Passenger satisfaction has improved because of fewer delays and more reliable service.
Real-time data analytics enhance the passenger experience by providing accurate and
up-to-date information on transit schedules, delays, and alternative routes. For instance,
in Barcelona and Copenhagen, AI models analyzing passenger flow data have optimized
service frequency, reduced overcrowding and wait times during peak hours. This en-
hancement in service reliability and passenger comfort translates into a higher overall
satisfaction [83–85].

5.2. Practical Implications

The findings of this study underscore the transformative potential of AI-driven ap-
proaches in urban public transportation systems, offering significant practical implications
for enhancing service regularity and operational efficiency (also analyzed in [86,87]).
i. Dynamic Scheduling and Real-Time Adjustments: AI tools enable transit agencies to
monitor and adjust headways in real time, addressing potential deviations promptly.
This capability reduces vehicle bunching and ensures consistent services, leading
to shorter travel times and greater passenger comfort. By continuously adapting
schedules based on real-time data, agencies can enhance service reliability and
passenger satisfaction.
ii. Optimization of Static Line Elements: This study’s methodology allows transit
planners to use AI models to simulate various disturbance scenarios and optimize
bus stop placements, routes, and schedules. This proactive approach ensures that
public transport systems are robust from the design phase, reducing the need for
costly retrofits and improving the initial system performance.
iii. Cost Savings: Enhanced headway regularity and reduced operational disrup-
tions lead to lower fuel consumption, maintenance costs, and labor expenses.
These savings can be redirected towards infrastructure upgrades or service ex-
pansions, further improving system efficiency and capacity. The efficient man-
agement of operational costs demonstrates the financial benefits of implementing
AI-driven optimizations.
Sustainability 2024, 16, 7763 14 of 18

iv. Continuous Monitoring and Data Analysis: This study highlights the importance
of investing in advanced data collection and analysis tools. Ongoing performance
assessment and data-driven decision making enable transit agencies to remain
adaptable and responsive to changing urban dynamics and increasing demand.
Cultivating a data-driven culture ensures that systems stay resilient and capable of
meeting evolving transportation needs.
Overall, these findings illustrate how AI and data-driven strategies can significantly
enhance the sustainability, efficiency, and reliability of urban public transport systems,
offering actionable insights for transit authorities looking to modernize and optimize
their operations.

5.3. Research Limitations

Our research on AI-driven approaches for enhancing sustainability in urban public
transportation encountered several notable limitations. Primarily, the quality and availabil-
ity of data significantly impacted the effectiveness of the AI-driven strategies. To overcome
the limitations of incomplete or inconsistent data, synthetic data generation was employed
to create high-quality, representative datasets that simulated real-world conditions. This
approach enabled the AI models to train effectively and produce more accurate and reliable
outcomes for enhancing sustainability in urban public transportation.
The current analysis heavily relied on real-time traffic conditions, vehicle performance
metrics, and passenger flow data. In many cases, the data were incomplete or inconsistent,
presenting challenges that compromised the accuracy and reliability of the results.
Another key limitation was the bias inherent to data collection and analysis. Biases
emerged from the methodologies used for data gathering and the algorithms applied for
the analysis, potentially leading to skewed results and erroneous conclusions. In this study,
biases were introduced due to inconsistencies in data formats and lineage from various
sources, such as GPS tracking systems and passenger counting technologies. Mega cities
with various public transport services might have consistent real-time data availability.
However, these inconsistencies with the data affected the robustness of our findings and
the ability to generalize the results.
This research also faced issues with context-specific applicability. The findings from
AI-driven optimization for public transportation were influenced by local traffic conditions,
existing infrastructure, and regulatory environments, making them less generalizable across
different urban settings. The diverse conditions across cities meant that some solutions
were not directly transferable without significant modifications.
Implementation challenges further complicated this research. Resistance to change,
limited expertise, constrained financial resources, and organizational inertia impeded the
adoption of AI technologies. Overcoming these barriers would require a multidisciplinary
approach, integrating expertise from urban planning, data science, transportation engineer-
ing, and public policy. Despite these limitations, this research offered valuable insights into
how AI-driven solutions can enhance sustainability in urban public transport, highlighting
both the potential and challenges of implementing such technologies.

6. Conclusions
In this study, we explored the critical issue of headway deviations in public transport
lines using a data-driven approach, with a particular focus on enhancing service regularity
during the design phase. Headway regularity is crucial for maintaining high-quality service
in public transport systems. Deviations between planned and actual headways can lead to
increased average travel time, heightened travel time uncertainty, and decreased passenger
comfort. In systems with headways of less than 15 min, passengers typically do not rely on
schedules, making the regularity of headways even more vital.
AI application was used to examine the cumulative effects of multiple primary dis-
turbances on vehicle movement. We ranked the influence of different parameters and
employed the automatic optimization of static line elements to provide a robust framework
Sustainability 2024, 16, 7763 15 of 18

for improving headway regularity. With proper design and optimization, it is possible to
significantly enhance the resilience of public transport systems to various disturbances.
The authors modeled the cumulative impact of these disturbances more accurately and
identified optimal strategies for maintaining regular headways.
Our conclusion is that achieving near-perfect headway regularity can minimize service
disturbances and prevent vehicle bunching, which severely impact service quality. Our
study’s innovative approach highlights the potential for AI-driven optimization to improve
public transport system resilience and efficiency.
New projects could build on this foundational work by focusing on the integration
of real-time data-driven adjustments and advanced AI-driven solutions for dynamically
managing headway disturbances. Specifically, investigating how AI can continuously
adapt to real-time traffic conditions, vehicle performance, and passenger flow will be
crucial for enhancing the efficiency and reliability of urban public transport systems. This
approach could involve developing more sophisticated predictive models and optimization
algorithms to address unforeseen disruptions and maintain service regularity.
Additionally, exploring the application of AI in conjunction with other emerging
technologies, such as IoT sensors and advanced communication networks, could provide
further insights into improving system resilience and operational efficiency. Research
should analyze how different urban environments and infrastructure conditions impact
the effectiveness of AI-driven strategies, ensuring that solutions are adaptable to various
city-specific challenges.
By incorporating these advanced methodologies, urban transport systems can better
meet the evolving demands of growing urban populations while enhancing sustainability.
This study serves as a crucial first step, demonstrating the potential of AI- and data-driven
approaches to improve public transportation and a perspective for further development
visions to refine these technologies for an even greater impact and broader applicability.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, A.D. and V.L.V.; methodology, V.P.; software, D.V. (Dejan
Vidojevic); validation, M.P., V.P. and I.B.; formal analysis, A.C.; investigation, D.R.P.; resources, D.R.P.;
data curation, D.R.P.; writing—original draft preparation, D.V. (Djordje Vranjes); writing—review
and editing, D.V. (Dejan Vidojevic); visualization, A.D.; supervision, M.S.; project administration,
M.S.; and funding acquisition, A.C. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of
the manuscript.
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement: Data is contained within the article.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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