DeepSeek, and ye shall find

DeepSeek，汝将有所得。

China’s hottest AI model has panicked investors. But it is a cause for optimism for the world at large.

The market reaction, when it came, was brutal . On January 27th, as investors realised just how good
DeepSeek’s “V3” and “R1” models were, they wiped around a trillion dollars off the market capitalisation of
America’s listed tech firms . Nvidia, a chipmaker and the chief shovel-seller of the artificial- intelligence (AI) gold
rush, saw its value fall by $600bn. Yet even if the Chinese model-maker’s new releases rattled investors in a
handful of firms, they should be a cause for optimism for the world at large. DeepSeek shows how competition
and innovation will make AI cheaper and therefore more useful.

市场反应一旦到来，便是残酷的。1月27日，当投资者意识到深度求索（DeepSeek）的“V3”和“R1”模型有多么出色时，他
们使美国上市科技公司的市值蒸发了约一万亿美元。英伟达，这家芯片制造商和人工智能（AI）淘金热中的主要“铲子销售商”，
其市值下跌了6000亿美元。然而，即使这家中国模型制造商的新产品让少数公司的投资者感到不安，它们也应该成为整个世界乐
观的理由。深度求索展示了竞争和创新将如何使人工智能更便宜，从而更有用。

DeepSeek’s models are practically as good as those made by Google and OpenAI—and have been produced at
a fraction of the cost. Barred by American export controls from using cutting-edge chips, the Chinese firm
undertook an efficiency drive, even reprogramming the chips it used to train the model to eke out every drop
of power. The cost of building an AI model that can stand toe-to-toe with the best has plummeted . Within
days, DeepSeek’s chatbot was the most downloaded app on the iPhone.

DeepSeek 的模型几乎与谷歌和 OpenAI 的模型一样出色，而其生产成本却只是后者的一小部分。由于受到美国出口管制

The contrast with America's approach could not be starker. Sam Altman,the boss of OpenAI, has spent years
telling investors—and America's new president—that vast sums of money and computing power are needed to
stay at the forefront of AI. Investors have accordingly been betting that a handful of firms stand to reap vast
monopoly-like rents . Yet if fast followers such as DeepSeek can eat away at that lead for a fraction of the cost,
then those potential profits are at risk .

与美国的方式相比，这种对比再鲜明不过了。OpenAI 的老板山姆·奥特曼多年来一直告诉投资者——以及美国新总统——需要
巨额资金和计算能力才能保持在人工智能领域的前沿地位。因此，投资者一直押注少数几家公司将获得巨大的、类似垄断的租金。
然而，如果像 DeepSeek 这样的快速追随者能够以极低的成本蚕食这种领先地位，那么这些潜在的利润就会面临风险。

Nvidia became the most valuable listed company in the world thanks to a widespread belief that building the
best AI required paying through the nose for its best chips (on which its profit margins are reported to exceed
90%). No wonder DeepSeek's success led to a stockmarket drubbing for the chipmaker on January 27th (see
Business section). Others in the data-centre business are also licking their wounds , from Siemens
Energy(which would have built the turbines to power the build- out) to Cameco (which would have provided
the uranium to fuel the reactors to turn the turbines). Had OpenAI been listed, its stock would surely have
taken a tumble as well.
 由于人们普遍认为，构建最好的人工智能需要为其最好的芯片付出高昂的代价（据报道，英伟达在这些芯片上的利润率超过
，英伟达因此成为了全球市值最高的上市公司。难怪 DeepSeek 的成功导致这家芯片制造商在 1 月 27 日的股市中遭受
90%）
重创（见商业版）
。数据中心业务的其他公司也在舔舐伤口，从西门子能源（原本将建造涡轮机为数据中心扩建提供电力）到
。如果 OpenAI 已经上市，其股价肯定也会暴跌。
Cameco（原本将提供铀来为反应堆提供燃料以驱动涡轮机）

Yet there are far more winners than losers from the DeepSeek drama. Some of them are even within tech.
Apple will be cheering that its decision not to throw billions at building AI capabilities has paid off. It can sit
back and pick the best models from a newly commoditised selection. Smaller labs, including France's Mistral
and the Emirati TII, will be racing to see if they can adopt the same improvements, and try to catch up with
their bigger rivals.

然而，DeepSeek 事件的赢家远多于输家。其中一些甚至来自科技行业内部。苹果公司将为其当初没有投入数十亿美元构建
人工智能能力的决定感到庆幸。它可以坐享其成，从新近商品化的众多模型中挑选最好的。包括法国的 Mistral 和阿联酋的
TII 在内的较小实验室，将竞相采用相同的改进措施，并试图赶上其较大的竞争对手。

Moreover, efficiency gains are likely to result in greater use of AI(see Free exchange). The Jevons paradox—the
observation that greater efficiency can lead to more, not less, use of an industrial input—may come into play.
The possible applications for a language model with computing costs as cheap as DeepSeek’s($1 per million
tokens)are vastly more numerous than those for Anthropic's($15 per million tokens). Many uses for cheaper AI
are as yet unimagined.

此外，效率的提升可能会导致人工智能的更广泛应用（参见“自由交流”部分）
。杰文斯悖论——即效率提高反而可能导致工业
投入品的使用量增加而非减少——可能会发挥作用。DeepSeek 的计算成本低至每百万个词元（token）1 美元，与其相比，
Anthropic 的成本为每百万个词元 15 美元，因此前者的语言模型潜在应用场景要广泛得多。许多更廉价的人工智能应用目前
还无法想象。

Even Nvidia may not suffer too much in the long run. Although its market clout may be diminished, it will
continue to sell chips in vast quantities. Reasoning models, including DeepSeek's R1 and OpenAI's o3,require
much more computing power than conventional large language models to answer questions. Nvidia will be
hoping to supply some of that.

即使是英伟达，从长远来看，可能也不会遭受太大损失。尽管其市场影响力可能会减弱，但它仍将继续大量销售芯片。包括
DeepSeek的R1和OpenAI的o3在内的推理模型，在回答问题时比传统的大型语言模型需要更多的计算能力。英伟达希望能够提供
其中一部分算力。

However, the real winners will be consumers. For AI to transform society, it needs to be cheap, ubiquitous and
out of the control of any one country or company. DeepSeek’s success suggests that such a world is
imaginable. Take Britain, where Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister, has unveiled a plan to use AI to boost
productivity. If he does not need to pay most of the efficiency gains back to Microsoft in usage fees, his
proposal has a better chance of success. When producers’ rents vanish, they remain in the pockets of users.

然而，真正的赢家将是消费者。为了让人工智能改变社会，它需要廉价、普及，并且不受任何一个国家或公司的控制。深度
求索（DeepSeek）的成功表明，这样一个世界是可以想象的。以英国为例，首相基尔·斯塔默爵士（Sir Keir Starmer）公布
了一项利用人工智能提高生产力的计划。如果他不需要将大部分效率收益作为使用费返还给微软，他的提议就有更大的成功机会。
当生产者的租金消失时，它们就会留在用户的口袋里。

Some have begun to suggest that DeepSeek’s improvements don’t count because they are a consequence
of “distilling” American models’ intelligence into its own software. Even if that were so, R1 remains a ground-
breaking innovation. The ease with which DeepSeek found greater efficiency will spur competition. It suggests
many more such gains are still to be discovered.
 有人开始声称，DeepSeek的进步不算数，因为这是将其“提炼”的美国模型智能融入自身软件的结果。即便如此，R1仍不失
为一项突破性的创新。DeepSeek如此轻易地就实现了效率的提升，这将刺激竞争。这表明还有更多类似的进步有待发掘。

For two years the biggest American AI labs have vied to make ever more marginal improvements in the
quality of their models, rather than models that are cheap, fast and good. DeepSeek shows there is a better
way.

两年来，美国最大的几家人工智能实验室一直在竞相提升其模型质量，但这些改进微乎其微，而不是致力于开发廉价、快速
且优质的模型。DeepSeek 表明，存在一种更好的方式。