Current Issues in Tourism

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Tourism and climate change: a review of threats and

adaptation strategies for Africa

Gijsbert Hoogendoorn & Jennifer M. Fitchett

To cite this article: Gijsbert Hoogendoorn & Jennifer M. Fitchett (2018) Tourism and climate
change: a review of threats and adaptation strategies for Africa, Current Issues in Tourism,
21:7, 742-759, DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2016.1188893

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Current Issues in Tourism, 2018
Vol. 21, No. 7, 742–759, https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2016.1188893

REVIEW ARTICLE

Tourism and climate change: a review of threats and adaptation

strategies for Africa
Gijsbert Hoogendoorna* and Jennifer M. Fitchettb
a
Department of Geography, Environmental Management and Energy Studies, University of
Johannesburg, P.O. Box, 524, Auckland Park, Johannesburg 2006, South Africa; bEvolutionary
Studies Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Private Bag x3, Wits, Johannesburg 2050,
South Africa
(Received 3 February 2016; accepted 8 May 2016)

The intersection of tourism and climate change has seen significant research over the
past two decades, focusing particularly on issues of mitigation and adaptation in the
global North. Research output has predominantly been centred on the Mediterranean
and Nordic countries and number of localities in North America. The global South
has seen significantly less investigation, despite having significantly lower adaptive
capacity to the impacts of climate change, and numerous countries with rapidly
growing tourism sectors. The African continent specifically has seen appreciably less
research than other countries in the global South, despite arguably having the lowest
adaptive capacity and projections of severe impacts of climate change to the tourism
sector from temperature increases, changes in precipitation volume and sea level rise.
This paper therefore presents a review of the existing literature on adaptation
strategies of tourism sectors and participants in African countries. The crucial
argument of this paper is in highlighting the need for an increase in research into the
threats of climate change to tourism in African countries, identifying future research
trajectories. The development of such knowledge would assist in the development of
adaptation and mitigation strategies for these most vulnerable tourism economies.
Keywords: tourism; climate change; Africa; adaptation; future research

1. Introduction
Climate affects the seasonality of tourism, tourists’ selection of destinations, available
tourist activities and attractions, and the overall satisfaction of a vacation (Becken, 2005;
Gössling, Scott, Hall, Ceron, & Dubois, 2012; Kyriakidis & Felton, 2008; Morabito,
Crisci, Barcaioli, & Maracchi, 2004; Richins & Scarinci, 2009). Climate change, therefore,
has the potential to reduce the sustainability and long-tern viability of global tourism. As
climate plays a significant role in the comparative selection of a tourist destination,
climate change has the potential to alter the popularity of tourism localities and regions
(Rosselló & Waqas, 2015). Furthermore, progressive changes in the climate of a location
and increasing threats of associated natural hazards including storms, flooding and sea
level rise can result in destinations becoming progressively unsuitable for tourism (Roger-
son, 2016). The ability of tourism destinations to mitigate and adapt to climate change is
hampered by the competing requirements of the more immediate development of a

*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]

© 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group

 Current Issues in Tourism 743

destination’s tourism sector and infrastructure (Mohan & Morton, 2009). Long-term plan-
ning for the consequences of climate change is often believed to be unnecessary due to the
delay until such affects are experienced, and the probability of them occurring (Hoogen-
doorn, Grant, & Fitchett, 2016). While for developed countries it could be argued that
the threats and opportunities to tourism of climate change may be relatively well balanced
(Perch-Nielsen, Amelung, & Knutti, 2010), the competing challenges of economic devel-
opment and social uplift in the developing countries of the African continent result in a
lowered adaptive capacity such that threats to the tourism sector are the most likely, and
a highly critical, outcome of climate change (Rogerson, 2016).
Kaján and Saarinen’s (2013) review in Current Issues in Tourism explores major global
issues around tourism, climate change and adaptation which emphasizes the need for com-
munity specific studies. However, we would argue that despite the significant contribution
by Kaján and Saarinen (2013), the relationships between climate change and tourism are
complex, inter-related and often location specific. The threats of climate change to
tourism are heightened in developing countries (Rogerson, 2016). Therefore, this review
paper critically explores the scant existing literature on tourism and climate change for
the African continent, and argues for a greater research focus on the continent to
improve the understanding of these relationships and to facilitate improved adaptation strat-
egies. This is particularly true for countries, which have additional immediate policy and
developmental concerns. The lack of available capital, proactive policies, and expert
knowledge on climate change reduces the adaptive capacity of developing countries, and
in turn their tourism sectors. Moreover, this paper highlights the shortage of academic
research on climate change and tourism in Africa (Njoroge, 2015), and points towards
future research trajectories. The themes discussed in this paper are the climate change
threats to tourism relating to increasing temperatures, precipitation changes, sea level
rise, increased concentration of pollution, followed by a discussion of the findings of
location-, attraction-, and severity-dependant adaptation requirements. These themes
were identified by the authors during the analysis of existing literature as those which
pose the most critical threats to tourism, and which have seen preliminary investigation
but require deeper research focus due to the severity of projected future impacts. In
terms of literature consulted, the authors conducted a wide-ranging search, cross-checked
through Google Scholar, Science Direct, Ebscohost, Springer, and Web of Knowledge,
across any disciplines that specifically made reference to climate change and tourism in
Africa. No time period was specified during searches, given the paucity of research. A
number of key words and phrases were used in this study, too numerous to mention
here, but some of the key ones were ‘climate change + tourism + Africa’, ‘climate
threats to tourism in Africa’, ‘global environmental change + tourism + Africa’. As well
as the key words ‘climate change + tourism’ with each of the 54 African countries
entered separately.

2. The relationship between global climate change and tourism

Globally, tourism is one of the fastest growing global economic sectors, contributing con-
siderably to the national and local economies of countries around the world (Scott &
Lemieux, 2010). Weather and climate are important determinants of the success of
tourism in a given location, and arguably, the predominant factor controlling tourist
flows on a global scale (Moreno, 2010; Scott & Lemieux, 2010). Despite the important
role of climate on tourism activities, research into the relationship between climate and
tourism has evolved relatively recently, emerging only in recent decades (March, Sauri,
744 G. Hoogendoorn and J.M. Fitchett

& Llurdes, 2014; Scott, McBoyle, & Schwartzentruber, 2004). This research highlights rec-
ognition by state governments and tourism stakeholders that climate change threatens to
significantly detriment tourism (Hamilton, Maddison, & Tol, 2005; Moreno, 2010).
Climate change impacts on tourism are already being observed, and are gradually influ-
encing decision-making within the tourism sector (Simpson, Gössling, Scott, Hall, &
Gladin, 2008). The United World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) has identified climate
change impacts on tourist destinations, their competitiveness and sustainability
(UNWTO, UNEP & WTO, 2008). The redistribution of climatic resources between differ-
ent tourism destinations is of particular concern (Ehmer & Heyman, 2008; Marshall, Mar-
shall, Abdulla, Rouphael, & Ali, 2011). Due to the changes in the length and quality of
climate-dependent tourism seasons, the competitive advantage of certain destinations will
be altered, ultimately affecting the viability of tourism businesses globally. The indirect
impacts of climate change include changes to a destination’s environment in response to
the altered climate (Agnew & Viner, 2001). These environmental changes can include
changes in the local biodiversity, landscape aesthetics, a decrease in wildlife, increased
coastal erosion, and damage to tourism infrastructure (Agnew & Viner, 2001; Reddy, 2012).
The combined direct and indirect impacts of climate change will have significant rami-
fications on tourism destinations, businesses, and infrastructure (March et al., 2014;
Simpson et al., 2008). The effects of climate change on the tourism sector will vary signifi-
cantly based on the type of tourism market and the geographic region of a tourist destination
(Simpson et al., 2008). The threats of climate change on winter tourism, specifically on
skiing destinations, include reductions in the depth of snow and in the duration of the
winter season (cf. Harrison, Winterbottom, & Johnson, 2001; Scott, McBoyle, & Mills,
2003; Whetton, Haylock, & Galloway, 1996). Beach tourism faces threats of intolerably
high temperatures, more frequent precipitation, changes in wave dynamics, and sea level
rise (Ehmer & Heyman, 2008; Fitchett, Grant, & Hoogendoorn, 2016; Moreno &
Amelung, 2009; Sagoe-Addy & Addo, 2013). Mediterranean regions, in particular, are pro-
jected to experience hotter climatic conditions which may result in significant discomfort
for tourists during peak summer tourist period (Amelung, Nicholls, & Viner, 2007). By con-
trast, the warming trend projected for countries in northern Europe is likely to be beneficial
to tourism, as it will result in a more ameliorable climate better suited to outdoor activities
(Amelung et al., 2007). The geography of a particular location, the nature of the tourist
attractions, and the regionally specific climate change projections for different temporal
periods are thus of vital importance.

3. Global south climate change threats to tourism

Vulnerability to climate change is determined by a country’s sensitivity, its exposure, its
physical setting and by its capacity to adapt (Adger, Huq, Brown, Conway, & Hulme,
2003). Relative to developed countries, the global South are considered particularly vulner-
able to climate change, with their comparatively lower adaptive capacity placing them at
greater risk to the impacts of climate change (Adger et al., 2003; Spence, Poortinga,
Butler, & Pidgeon, 2011; Spence, Poortinga, & Pidgeon, 2012). In the context of climate
changed, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defines adaptive capacity as

the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes)
to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the conse-
quences. (Gallopin, 2006, 300)
 Current Issues in Tourism 745

Due to the lack of capital intensity and technological flexibility, developing countries
cannot adapt as effectively and are left more vulnerable than developed countries
(Bryan, Deressa, Gbetibouo, & Ringler, 2009; Kurukulasuriya et al., 2006). In addition
to the insufficient capacity to adapt to the direct threats of climate change, developing
countries are at further risk due to their heavy reliance on both economic sectors and
resources that are sensitive to climate change, including agriculture and tourism (Adger
et al., 2003; Mertz, Halsnæs, Oleson, & Rasmussen, 2009). This vulnerability to climate
change, particularly within the economic sector, can further aggravate the social and econ-
omic challenges that are currently being experienced in developing countries (Adger et al.,
2003).
Due to the heightened vulnerability and lowered adaptive capacity, developing
countries have adaptation requirements which differ from those of the global North, requir-
ing an approach relatively low in cost, and which addresses the stressors within the lower
income populations (Adger et al., 2003; Buob & Stephan, 2013; Mertz et al., 2009).
However, despite the severity of the projected impacts of climate change and the need
for adaption, many developing countries do not perceive climate change to be their most
significant challenge nor prioritize it financially (Mertz et al., 2009). Poverty reduction,
economic growth, housing, and service provision are typically considered more important
than sustainable adaptation to climate change, particularly in the short term (Grant, 2015;
Reddy, 2012). It is thus argued that developing countries consequently require assistance
from developed countries in order to build their human and technical capacities to
improve adaptability, while meeting the more severe short-term requirements of the popu-
lation (Smit & Wandel, 2006). A domain where this type of assistance would be valuable is
the coastal regions of developing countries, which in many cases host considerable parts of
tourism localities and regions in the global South (Agrawala et al., 2004). These capacity
shortfalls include the human, financial, and technical capital needed to effectively deal
with climate change impacts, which is lessened in countries with a variety of socio-econ-
omic and environmental conditions and issues (Amelung et al., 2007). Consequently,
various national and international stakeholders are reviewing their respective roles and
responsibilities and are offering governmental support to countries facing the worst
effects of climate change (Beck, 2010).

4. Climate change threats to African tourism

The threats that climate change poses to African tourism can be classified according to the
climate change impacts projected globally which have the potential to threaten tourism via-
bility (Table 1). Due to the nature of the tourist attractions in a particular region, and the
climatic characteristics of a particular location, certain impacts will be more severe than
others. However, an understanding of the potential impacts associated with climate
change is an essential initial step in assessing the adaptive capacity and vulnerability of a
region to tourism, and in the long term to inform such adaptation. These themes will be dis-
cussed based on current literature focusing on tourism and climate change in Africa.

4.1. Increasing temperatures

The greatest focus in climate change science, and the key point of many projections, is in
the temperature rises associated with an increase in greenhouse gases. Such temperature
increases have the potential to affect tourism negatively both directly and indirectly.
Direct impacts include the thermal discomfort to tourists when temperatures exceed the
 746
Table 1. Summary of the literature on climate change and tourism in Africa.
Author Year Country Climate change threats Methods

G. Hoogendoorn and J.M. Fitchett

Becker 1998 South Africa Rising temperatures Beach comfort index
Parish and Funnell 1999 Morocco Improved tourism from increased temperatures Literature review
Agrawala et al. 2004 Egypt Sea level rise Digital elevation model sea level rise projections
Hamilton et al. 2005 Global Increasing temperatures Tourist arrival and departure modelling
Preston-Whyte and 2005 South Africa Theoretical: temperature increases, altered precipitation Theoretical discussion of threats to nature-based
Watson Lesotho patterns tourism
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Botswana
Swaziland
Gössling et al. 2006 Tanzania Increased precipitation, increased humidity, more frequent Interviews with tourists
storms
Ahmed and Hefny 2007 Egypt Theoretical: degradation of coral reefs, sea level rise Theoretical discussion of potential threats
Amelung et al. 2007 Global Rising temperatures and altered precipitation and humidity Calculating and mapping of global TCI scores
Reid et al. 2007 Namibia Increasing temperatures, altered precipitation, detrimental Round table discussions
effects to nature-based tourism
Awuor et al. 2008 Kenya Theoretical: sea level rise, flooding Theoretical discussion of potential threats on the
basis of past disasters
Snoussi et al. 2008 Morocco Sea level rise, flooding Digital elevation model sea level rise projections
Shaaban and 2010 Egypt Rising temperatures inducing greater seasonal differences, Interviews with Egyptian policy-makers and
Ramzy coastal degradation tourism managers
Agnew and Viner 2011 South Africa Theoretical: flooding, drought, land degradation, wildlife Theoretical discussion of potential threats
Kenya redistribution
Tanzania
Marshall et al. 2011 Egypt Tourist perceptions of poor climate Interviews with tourists and tourism operators
a
Reddy 2012 South Africa Increasing temperatures, altered precipitation patterns Interviews with stakeholders in nature-based
tourism
Steyn 2012 South Africa Theoretical: increased temperatures, aridification, loss of Theoretical discussion
fynbos species, changes in wind speed, increased ocean
temperatures
Steyn and Spencer 2012 South Africa Theoretical: temperature changes, altered precipitation Theoretical discussion
patterns, shifts in seasonality, increased occurrence of floods
Hambira et al. 2013 Botswana Increased temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, In depth interviews with tourism operators
degradation of vegetation
Saarinen et al. 2013 Botswana Degradation of natural resources Interviews with tourism operators
Sagoe-Addy and 2013 Ghana Sea level rise Modelled sea level rise, interviews with tourism
Addo operators
Mbaiwa and 2014 Botswana Changing flooding patterns Interviews with tour operators and lodge managers
Mmopelwa
Moswete and Dube 2014 Botswana Theoretical impacts of climate change to nature-based Theoretical discussion
tourism
Sajjad et al. 2014 Sub-Saharan Pollution Multivariate regression analysis
Africa
Dillimono and 2015 Nigeria Rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, In depth interviews with tourists
Dickinson pollution
a
Grant 2015 South Africa Increasing temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, TCI, digital elevation model sea level rise
changing humidity, sea level rise, storm surges projections, interviews with tourists and tourism
operators
Hambira and 2015 Botswana Changing water levels in dams, erratic rainfall, changing In depth interviews with policy-makers
Saarinen seasonality
Fitchett, Grant et al. 2016 South Africa Rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, TCI, digital elevation model sea level rise
sea level rise projections
Fitchett, 2016 South Africa Flooding related to tropical cyclones Economic assessment of costs of flooding to
Hoogendoorn tourism establishments
et al.

Current Issues in Tourism

Hoogendoorn et al. 2016 South Africa Increasing temperatures, sea level rise, increased storm Interviews with tourists and tourism operators
incidence
Köberl et al. 2016 Tunisia Increasing temperatures, altered precipitation Sensitivity analysis and linear regression
Rogerson 2016 South Africa Degradation of environmental resources, increase in vector- Analysis of public statements, theoretical
borne diseases discussion
a
Postgraduate research dissertations.

747
748 G. Hoogendoorn and J.M. Fitchett

human comfort levels (Gössling & Schumacher, 2010; Hunt & Watkiss, 2011). Indirect
impacts, with varying levels of severity and impact, include the effects of temperature
changes on the components of the natural environment which comprise the tourist attraction
(Hambira, Saarinen, Manwa, & Atlhopheng, 2013). Due to the increased severity of temp-
erature increases with latitude, the distribution of temperature-dependent features, and the
varying reliance of tourism on the natural environment, there are necessarily spatial vari-
ations in the severity of the threat of temperature increases to tourism (Rogerson &
Sims, 2012).
The influence of high temperatures on tourists’ discomfort is often relative, both to
the perceived temperatures of a destination, and to other climate threats (Gössling,
Bredberg, Randow, Sandström, & Svensson, 2006; Gössling & Schumacher, 2010).
For Zanzibar in Tanzania, despite mean maximum temperatures of 32°C, warm temp-
eratures are not considered problematic for tourists (Gössling et al., 2006). Rather,
storms and humidity are cited as climatic variables of concern (Gössling et al.,
2006). Humidity is intrinsically related to temperature, and thus may reflect a manifes-
tation of the influence of high temperatures on tourist discomfort (Perch-Nielsen et al.,
2010), but it is notable that despite being at the upper limit of thermal limits for tourism,
temperature is not of direct concern (Gössling et al., 2006). By contrast, at the Oka-
vango Delta in Botswana, excessively warm temperatures were found to have nega-
tively affected tourist operators as outdoor activities which could not be climate
controlled, such as boat and canoe rides, were often cancelled (Hambira et al., 2013).
There is an inherent seasonality to the influence of increasing temperatures on
tourism. For northern Tunisia, warming temperatures improve conditions for tourists
in winter, but for summer and autumn, the climate is increasingly becoming too hot
for sightseeing activities (Köberl, Prettenthaler, & Bird, 2016). Where tourism relies
predominantly on the summer months, such temperature increases are proportionately
more damaging. The Moroccan High Atlas Mountains have attracted visitors during
the summer months who enjoy the cooler temperatures relative to lower altitude adja-
cent locations (Parish & Funnell, 1999). As these lower altitude valleys become
warmer, permanent residents have moved upslope, contesting space previously domi-
nated by second homes (Parish & Funnell, 1999).
The response of the natural environment to increasing temperatures can be classified
into range shifts and migration, phenological shifts in the timing of annual events and
resultant reductions in yields, and extirpation (Fitchett, Grab, & Thompson, 2015;
Root et al., 2003). In regions where range shifts are largely unconstrained, as is the
case in the Okavango Delta, Kenya and Tanzania, temperatures increases threaten to
induce wildlife migration, potentially detracting from and ultimately eliminating the
key tourist attraction (Agnew & Viner, 2001; Hambira et al., 2013). Where migration
is not feasible, there are concerns that increasing temperatures in the Western Cape Pro-
vince of South Africa will negatively affect wine farming, which in turn will compromise
tourism associated with the wine route a key tourism product of South Africa (Steyn,
2012). By contrast, warming promotes the growth of opportunistic species, such as
algae, a concern for bird watching at the many dams in the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt
(Ahmed & Hefny, 2007). In the case of extirpation, considerable concern surrounds
coral bleaching occurring due to rising ocean temperatures (Ahmed & Hefny, 2007;
Marshall et al., 2011). Coral bleaching is argued to be a significant threat for tourism
associated with scuba diving and snorkelling at the Sinai Peninsula (Ahmed & Hefny,
2007) and the Seychelles (Marshall et al., 2011).
 Current Issues in Tourism 749

4.2. Precipitation changes

Projections for precipitation under climate change are less consistent than for temperature,
with increases projected for certain regions and reductions for others. Both situations have
the potential to negatively affect tourism, either through reducing the probability of outdoor
activities, or through preventing water-based tourist activities (Mbaiwa & Mmopelwa,
2009; Preston-Whyte & Watson, 2005). Of arguably greater concern, particularly in the
short term, is the occurrence of precipitation-related extreme events, including storms,
floods, and droughts (Gössling et al., 2006; Reid, Sahlén, MacGregor, & Stage, 2007).
Such events have the capacity to close down a tourist destination for the duration, if not
additionally resulting in long-term costly damage (Darkoh, Khayesi, & Mbaiwa, 2014).
Due to the spatial variation and unpredictable nature of these precipitation-related
changes, the potential adaptive capacity is lowered. As with temperature increases, there
are additional secondary impacts to the natural environment which pose further threats to
tourism in a given region.
Many tourists mentioned projections for increased precipitation in Zanzibar, yet far
greater concern was of the impacts of a heightened number of severe tropical cyclones
(Gössling et al., 2006). Storm surges are becoming increasingly damaging to the tourism
sector in South Africa, due to the predominance of nature- and beach-related tourism accom-
modation establishments and tourist attraction situated in the eastern half of the country,
exposed to tropical cyclones (Fitchett, Hoogendoorn, & Swemmer, 2016; Steyn &
Spencer, 2012). Storm surges also pose threats to the southern coast of South Africa due
to the low elevation of many coastal towns, and the effects of coastal lows (Fitchett,
Grant, et al., 2016; Steyn, 2012). One of the most severe direct effects of storms is in the
destruction of infrastructure such as roads and bridges, which are necessary in providing
access to tourist destinations (Agnew & Viner, 2001; Dillimono & Dickinson, 2015;
Fitchett, Hoogendoorn et al., 2016; Hoogendoorn et al., 2016). Recent flooding has
prevented access to tourist destinations, and in turn hindered tourism in Nigeria (Dillimono
& Dickinson, 2015), the Okavango delta in Botswana (Darkoh et al., 2014), and the Limpopo
Province (Fitchett, Grant, et al., 2016) and South Coast (Hoogendoorn et al., 2016) of South
Africa. The floods in the Moremi Game Reserve in the Okavango Delta in 2000 resulted in
their complete isolation, with financial losses, which necessitated the retrenchment of many
tourism workers in the Okavango Delta (Darkoh et al., 2014). The secondary effects of
increased precipitation and storm surges on tourism include decreased visibility for scuba
in Zanzibar (Gössling et al., 2006). Increased precipitation and flooding in the Okavango
Delta could result in crocodiles and hippopotamus moving into tourist-populated areas
(Hambira & Saarinen, 2015). Increased precipitation could also increase the malaria and
cholera prevalence in many regions (Darkoh et al., 2014; Kgathi et al., 2006).
Progressive regional drying is of particular concern for tourism sectors, which rely on
water as a key attraction (Mbaiwa & Mmopelwa, 2009). There are concerns that under pro-
longed drying, the Okavango Delta will no longer provide a tourist attraction, resulting in a
decimation of the tourism sector in the region (Mbaiwa & Mmopelwa, 2009). It is likely
that seasonal fluctuations in precipitation, and the resultant water levels in the Okavango
Delta, would be sufficient to alter travel decisions, particularly as activities such as boat
rides will increasingly be unavailable (Hambira & Saarinen, 2015). Nevertheless, for
southern Africa, projected rainfall decreases are argued to be able to facilitate an increase
in desert tourism destinations (Saarinen, Hambira, Atlhopheng, & Manwa, 2012). This,
however, would come at the expense of communities that rely on rainfall for their liveli-
hood, and would result in pressure for resources between the tourism and other local
750 G. Hoogendoorn and J.M. Fitchett

livelihoods that will become increasingly vulnerable (Dillimono & Dickinson, 2015; Kaján
& Saarinen, 2013).
Aridification and drought conditions have the potential to dramatically alter the faunal
diversity and spatial distribution in game reserves and national parks. Changes in major
migratory patterns of game in the Kgalagai Transfrontier Park in Southern Africa and the
Etosha National Park in Namibia are due to continue as animals have to travel considerably
further between wetland and dryland grazing areas (Reid et al., 2007). As 75% of Namibia’s
tourism sector relies on game viewing and trophy hunting, such migratory behaviour has
economic impacts (Reid et al., 2007). For aquatic species, a greater reliance on moist con-
ditions exists: drought in the St Lucia region of South Africa has prevented the Umfolozi
Estuary from remaining open, severely affecting fish migration and breeding opportunities,
which in turn removes the angling tourism attractions of the region (Hoogendoorn, 2014;
Steyn & Spencer, 2012). Desertification, erosion, and desert encroachment associated
with prolonged dry climatic conditions are of concern, particularly for the aesthetic com-
ponent of tourist attractions, and have been noted for the Kgalagai Transfrontier Park
and a number of localities in Nigeria (Dillimono & Dickinson, 2015; Reid et al., 2007).
Secondary effects of drought and aridification to tourism include the effects on the fauna
and flora, and on the affordable and easy access to resources. Biodiversity is threatened both
directly due to prolonged droughts, as for Nigeria and the subtropics (Dillimono & Dick-
inson, 2015), and indirectly through increased prevalence of animal diseases, such as
canine distemper virus decimating lion populations in East Africa (Reid et al., 2007).
Animals, and their role as tourist attractions, can also be affected by the reduction of veg-
etation which provides both habitat and food, as is arguably the case for the Kruger National
Park in South Africa (Steyn & Spencer, 2012). In addition, a reduction in precipitation
threatens to reduce bird-watching opportunities in Botswana (Hambira & Saarinen,
2015). Under particularly severe droughts, the food security of a region can be threatened,
providing moral issues regarding the distribution of such resources to tourists in favour of
the local community which threatens the potential of equitable and sustainable tourism
development (Dillimono & Dickinson, 2015).

4.3. Sea level rise

For low-lying coastal regions, sea level rise poses a considerable threat to tourism, reducing
the quality of coastal destinations in the short term and ultimately obliterating them in the
long term (Awuor, Orindi, & Adwera, 2008; Hoogendoorn et al., 2016; Nicholls et al.,
2007). The lowered adaptive capacity of developing countries on the African continent
heightens the risk of sea level rise, particularly to tourism which is by necessity not of adap-
tive priority (Awuor et al., 2008; Snoussi, Ouchani, & Niazi, 2008). Research to date has
highlighted concerns regarding the impacts of sea level rise to tourism in Kenya (Awuor
et al., 2008), Morocco (Snoussi et al., 2008), South Africa (Fitchett, Grant et al., 2016; Hoo-
gendoorn et al., 2016; Steyn & Spencer, 2012), and Egypt (Ahmed & Hefny, 2007). There
exists some debate regarding the preparedness of tourism locations on the Egyptian coast-
line to the threats of sea level rise: the location of many accommodation establishments in
the particularly low-lying regions of the Nile Delta is argued to be of concern particularly
due to the close proximity of historical sites (Ahmed & Hefny, 2007); yet, Egypt is reported
as one of the few locations with a strong adaptive capacity due to their thorough vulner-
ability and impact assessments (Agrawala et al., 2004). For South Africa, a disjunction
between science and perceptions (Fitchett et al., 2016) and between the perceptions of tour-
ists and accommodation establishments (Hoogendoorn et al., 2016) is found regarding sea
 Current Issues in Tourism 751

level rise threats to tourism: tourists are more concerned by sea level rise than the manage-
ment of accommodation establishments, while digital elevation models confirm the fears of
the tourists.

4.4. Increased concentration of pollution

Climate change and pollution are intricately linked: pollution, particularly in the form of the
emission of carbon dioxide and monoxide, is a key contributor to global warming, while the
climate changes associated often serve to concentrate and migrate pollution sinks (Sajjad,
Noreen, & Zaman, 2014; Tesfaye, Mengitsu Tsidu, Botai, Sivakumar, & Rautenbach,
2015). For African cities with particularly severe air pollution, a result of poor legislation
on emissions and insufficient implementation of migratory measures such as filters, the
decreased air quality is a considerable deterrent to tourism (Sajjad et al., 2014). Air pol-
lution additionally contributes to coral bleaching, reducing the attractiveness of a location
for scuba diving and snorkelling (Marshall et al., 2011). However, Dillimono and Dickin-
son (2015) report that interviewees in the case of Nigeria misunderstand the central issues
surrounding the various forms of pollution, suggesting that this may not be a significant
deterrent to tourism in Africa as yet. There is a notable lack of knowledge surrounding
the impacts of severe pollution on tourism, compounded by the sparse literature surround-
ing African air pollution in general. This lack of business, consumer, and academic knowl-
edge further hampers the adaptive capacity.

5. Avenues for adaptation

The potential for successful, sustainable adaptation to climate change threats to tourism is
determined by the nature and severity of the threat, the financial strength of the tourism
sector (and/or the component establishments), and the competing social and economic
needs of the African country in question. One of the greatest difficulties in the adaptation
to climate change threats is that they seldom occur in isolation, for example, a location
under threat of sea level rise may also face challenges relating to changes in precipitation
and increased temperatures (Fitchett, Grant et al., 2016).

5.1. Efforts towards adapting

As mentioned earlier, tourism operators in Botswana are reported to already be experien-
cing difficulties relating to increased temperatures (Hambira et al., 2013). In response,
they have adjusted the timing of organized activities to cooler times of the day to ensure
that human comfort levels are maintained, and have provided a greater number of swim-
ming pools, shaded areas and air conditioner to mitigate the heat during the middle of
the day (Hambira et al., 2013). Respondents in the Kgalagadi district are not yet experien-
cing detrimentally high temperatures, but similarly intend to build more swimming pools
and shaded areas, and to plant more trees should guests require cooler temperatures (Saar-
inen et al., 2012). However, this is in itself problematic, given that the usage of resource-
intensive mechanisms such as air conditioners and swimming pools may not be viable adap-
tive mechanisms, as this will put stress on already limited water supplies, especially during
drought periods.
In response to the threat of increased drought occurrences, respondents from accommo-
dation establishments in the Okavango Delta intend to make a shift from water- to land-
based activities, to drill for water to ensure waterholes for animals, and to maintain large
752 G. Hoogendoorn and J.M. Fitchett

water containers to ensure that water can be provided to tourists (Mbaiwa & Mmopelwa,
2009; Saarinen et al., 2012). The importance of educating the local communities on the
importance of water conservation, and of working with businesses from other economic
sectors to develop mitigation plans, was also raised by respondents from the Okavango
Delta (Saarinen et al., 2012). Flooding is argued to be a greater threat to small and micro
tourism enterprises such as accommodation establishments with less than 20 beds
(Darkoh et al., 2014); larger accommodation establishments can adapt during flooding
events by moving guests to alternative rooms on the property or alternative locations
(Mbaiwa & Mmopelwa, 2009).
The diversity of tourist offerings is argued to be a critical component of any adaptation
strategy to mitigate the effects of climate change to tourism (Hambira & Saarinen, 2015).
This is occurring at a large scale at the Egyptian Red Sea, where dive operators are diver-
sifying their offerings to additionally include bird watching, and lessons on astronomy and
indigenous foods, culture, and music (Marshall et al., 2011). At a smaller scale, accommo-
dation establishments on the South Coast of South Africa are diversifying their primarily
beach offering, by providing board games and satellite television for rainy days (Hoogen-
doorn et al., 2016). Tourists often seek alternative activities on days with poor climate
without any involvement of tourist operators, finding nearby museums and game farms
to visit (Hoogendoorn et al., 2016). However, prolonged periods of poor climatic conditions
would most likely reduce tourist numbers.

5.2. Quantifying adaptive capacity

In addition to the direct threats of climate change to tourism, global responses to climate
change may also threaten tourism where mitigation requires reducing emissions generated
through travel. African tourism is particularly vulnerable to changes in the aviation industry
relating to reductions in long-haul flights, as the region attracts a large number of visitors
from overseas, especially for long-haul destinations from main tourist-generating countries
such as the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, India, and China to receiving
regions such as Southern Africa, Seychelles, and Mauritius (Gössling, Peeters, & Scott,
2008; Rogerson, 2012). As Hambira and Saarinen (2015) rightly note, both adaptation
and mitigation policies are equally important. The greening of accommodation establish-
ments (Hoogendoorn, Grant, & Fitchett, 2015) and attempts towards carbon-neutral
tourist destinations (Gössling & Schumacher, 2010) could potentially be viable elsewhere
across the African continent and address both climate change adaptation and mitigation.
A challenge for successful adaptation of the tourism sector to climate change lies in the
apportionment of responsibility. In both Botswana (Saarinen et al., 2012) and South Africa
(Fitchett, Grant et al., 2016; Hoogendoorn et al., 2015), the governments were perceived to
be responsible for ensuring sufficient adaptation to the threats of climate change. Moreover,
tourist accommodation establishment managers rely on government to alert them of any
threats; with insufficient education from government and a lack of government action
towards adaptation, climate change is not perceived to be a problem (Hoogendoorn
et al., 2016). The issue is heightened by the lack of uncontentious information provided
to the tourism sector regarding climate change threats. Tourism climate indices (TCIs)
provide a tool to assess the climate suitability of a region to tourism, and with a sufficiently
long time-series, the impact of climate change on climate suitability to tourism (Amelung &
Viner, 2006; Fitchett, Grant et al., 2016; Köberl et al., 2016). Combined with climate fore-
casts and economic modelling, predictions can be made regarding the future viability of a
tourism destination on the basis of climate change (Köberl et al., 2016). Indices more
 Current Issues in Tourism 753

specific to particular tourist attractions, such as the Beach Comfort Index, have been devel-
oped and applied to South Africa (Becker, 1998). However, the level of scientific confi-
dence regarding the TCI outputs, and the capacity to translate these quantitative outputs
to stakeholders in the tourism sector remains uncertain (Hoogendoorn et al., 2016). Conse-
quently, the capacity of the tourism sectors across the African continent to adapt to climate
change remains largely unknown (Kaján & Saarinen, 2013).
Of concern to the sustainability of the tourism sectors of the African continent is the
disjuncture in perceptions of tourists and tourism operators regarding climate change. Mar-
shall et al. (2011) exposed the disjuncture between dive tourists and diving operators in
terms of their understanding of each other, while dive tourists are increasingly aware of
climate change and their impact, it seems that diving operators do not think that tourists
have this consideration and therefore some operators may risk losing customers to more
aware operators that do consider their ecological footprint.

6. Future research trajectories

The intricate relationship between tourism and climate change ensures that tourism sectors
across the African continent will be affected to some degree by continued changes in pre-
cipitation, temperature, humidity, air pollution, and sea level rise. The nature and extent of
such impacts are a factor of the geographic position of the country, the nature of tourist
attractions, the severity of local climate change, and the capital and infrastructural capacity
to adapt. There is consequently a need for in-depth, location-specific and community-level
research into climate change and tourism to be undertaken. Such research has been forth-
coming over recent decades for the global North, from which the bulk of the contemporary
understanding of global relationships between climate change and tourism originates. Very
little research exists for the global South, and specifically Africa, as is demonstrated
throughout this review paper (Table 1, Figure 1).
Although presently sparse, relative to the global North, research output on climate
change and tourism in Africa is increasing exponentially: almost two-thirds of the total
output has been published since 2010 (Table 1). Although a considerable proportion of
the research stems from southern Africa, and in particular South Africa and Botswana,
there is an increasing diversity in the countries researched (Table 1, Figure 1). It is
notable, that apart from southern Africa, there is seldom regional clustering in research
into tourism and climate change, and notably little cross-border research (Figure 1). This
is surprising as often political borders are inconsistent with topographic and climatic
spatial patterns, and as a consequence, adjacent countries may experience similarities in
both tourism attractions and climate threats.
The existing research highlights foremost that the interpretations made on relationships
between tourism and climate change from the global North do not necessarily hold true for
the global South. The global South is significantly more susceptible to the impacts of
climate change due to under-developed infrastructure, and lower resolution warning
systems. Furthermore, for much of the global South, there are an array of urgent socio-econ-
omic issues which require immediate intervention, which results in a lack of capital, policy
development, and expertise for longer term planning and adaptation. Where adaptation
measures are being implemented, they first need to be done to ensure basic human
rights, before addressing economic sectors, particularly those related to leisure. Long-
term adaptation planning cannot be at the forefront of their priorities, as often this is
more costly than alternative which provide adequately for the current needs and challenges.
At the scale of individual accommodation establishments, the volatile exchange rates of
754 G. Hoogendoorn and J.M. Fitchett

Figure 1. Distribution of research on climate change and tourism in Africa, with shaded areas repre-
senting countries for which ground-based research has been conducted.

many countries of the global South, their high-risk entrepreneurial investments, and uncer-
tainties about tourists’ preferences make individual adaptation measures difficult. There
appears often to be poor communication between government and tourist establishments
which in turn results in apathy from both sides.
This literature review further highlights that there exists within the global South a range
in the severity and nature of climate change threats to the tourism sectors of individual
countries. Where broad conclusions may be drawn for the global North, this is not possible
from the global South or specifically the African continent. The contribution of the tourism
sectors to climate change in countries of the global South similarly cannot be extrapolated
from that of the global North. For many of these countries, tourism is a rapidly growing
sector, often poorly understood or monitored. Climate change impacts on tourism therefore
critically threaten the broader economic strength and stability of these countries. For
African countries, tourist attractions are often predominantly outdoor, including beach
and nature-based tourism, creating a greater reliance on the contemporary ameliorable
climate. Variations in the tourism product offered, in the political conditions, and in the
 Current Issues in Tourism 755

need for basic services will, however, critically control the potential for climate change
adaptation within the sector.
In-depth, location-specific understanding of the inter-relationships between tourism and
climate change in the global South is imperative if timeous adaptation and mitigation are to
occur. The broad focus of this review, spanning the entire African continent, highlights that
such an approach requires far more intensive and focused research on climate change and
tourism. The expansion of this research into developing countries can, however, be based
on well-established, robust methodologies which have been developed in the global North,
provided they are applied with caution, considering the location-specific climate and
tourism characteristics. A range of climate tourism indices have been developed over
recent decades to quantify the climate suitability of a selection of locations to tourism
(Amelung et al., 2007; Perch-Nielsen et al., 2010). Whilst the ideal resolution and
quality of climate data may not be available in all countries (Perch-Nielsen et al., 2010),
these indices can serve as initial models which can be adapted to suit the available data
(Becker, 1998). Global resolution satellite data, when applied to regional elevation infor-
mation, can provide useful projections of sea level rise, and when paired with local accom-
modation establishment and infrastructure positions, can be used in quantifying this risk
(Fitchett, Grant et al., 2016; Sagoe-Addy & Addo, 2013). Perhaps the most valuable
method for research into climate change and tourism in developing countries is interview-
ing a range of stakeholders to obtain an understanding of past climate–tourism interactions,
their level of concern for climate change, and their adaptation and mitigation strategies
(Gössling et al., 2006; Hambira et al., 2013; Hoogendoorn et al., 2016; Marshall et al.,
2011; Shaaban & Ramzy, 2010).
Despite this array of well-established methodologies for exploring the threats of climate
change to tourism, a significant proportion of the research output for Africa relies on theor-
etical discussions of the potential threats of climate change to tourism, based on broad
understandings of the reliance of tourism on the natural environment, and changes to
these components of the natural environment due to climate change (Table 1). Moreover,
where research is conducted at the ground level, it predominantly focuses on either
tourism or climate change. For example, numerous studies have very effectively explored
the adaptation strategies of tourism operators to climate change threats (Table 1); yet, few
explore the climate science to determine whether such threats are of practical concern (Hoo-
gendoorn et al., 2016). We would argue that the most critical direction for future research is
in directly integrating the climate science with tourism research.
The tourism sector is a powerful driver of climate change itself (Simpson et al.,
2008) and tourism on the African continent is obviously not an innocent bystander in
the contribution of this problem. With the projected economic growth of African
more generally, the issue of mitigation will become increasingly prominent.
However, it is evident from this review that the very scant information on adaptation
requires particular focus and with the maturity of the research field, the issue of mitiga-
tion will ideally receive equal focus.

Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Funding
This work was conducted while JF was employed as a postdoctoral fellow funded by the DST/NRF
Centre of Excellence for Palaeosciences.
756 G. Hoogendoorn and J.M. Fitchett

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