Plan Bay Area 2050+:
Final Blueprint Outcomes
MTC Policy Advisory Council
May 27, 2025
Plan Bay Area 2050+: Schedule
Refresher: Vision, Guiding Principles, Elements & Strategies
PLAN VISION & GUIDING PRINCIPLES
Ensure by the year 2050 that the Bay Area is affordable, connected, diverse,
healthy and vibrant for all.
PLAN ELEMENTS & STRATEGIES
• 12 Transportation strategies focused on “Fix-It-First,” healthy and safe
streets, and transit expansion and enhancement
• 8 Housing strategies focused on the “3 Ps”: production, preservation and
protection
• 6 Economy strategies focused on economic mobility and the location of jobs
• 9 Environment strategies focused on hazard mitigation, parks and open
space, and climate emissions reduction
Note: A detailed summary of the plan's adopted strategies is available within
Attachment B. 33
Plan Bay Area 2050+: Engagement Highlights To-Date
Plan Bay Area 2050+
42 Pop-Up Workshops In-Person Engagement
3 Online Surveys
22 Community-Based
Organization Partnerships
6 Webinars and Technical
Workshops Legend
2023 Pop-Up
Widespread Digital 2024 Pop-Up
CBO Pop-Up
Promotion CBO Activity 4
Approved in January: Plan Bay Area 2050+ Final Blueprint
Baseline Data: Planning Assumptions: Policies and Investments:
Where Are We Now? What Could Happen in the Future? How Should We Get There?
Equity Priority
External Forces Growth Geographies
Communities (EPCs)
Updated Zoning and Regional Growth
Strategies
Land Use Data Forecast
Post-COVID Transit Needs and Revenue Transportation Resilience
Service Levels Analyses Project List Project List
This item examines what could happen in the future if the Final Blueprint's policies and investments are
implemented, focusing on notable findings from Final Blueprint modeling and analysis conducted over
winter/spring 2025, as well as a "No Project" alternative. Attachment B includes a detailed refresher of key Final
Blueprint elements and a comprehensive review of over 25 performance and equity metrics. Visit
[Link] to review past materials. 5
Growth Pattern: New Households & Jobs through 2050
Key Growth Statistics
Location of new households
SONOMA
NAPA
95% in Growth Geographies
SOLANO Location of new jobs
MARIN
CONTRA
72% in Growth Geographies
COSTA
MAP LEGEND SAN
Conservation
FRANCISCO
of new development outside
Growth Geography
Land outside urban
ALAMEDA
<1% local urban growth boundaries
SAN
growth boundary MATEO
Existing Regional Rail SANTA
CLARA
Reminder: Growth geographies are places close to
Future1 Regional Rail transit prioritized for future jobs, housing and
amenities in the long-range plan.
Highways
Attachment B includes county and subregional
1 Includes all regional rail extensions in Final Blueprint project list projections of household and jobs growth. 6
Strategies & Outcomes: Transportation and Mobility
Commute Mode Share
By 2050, the number of people Transit Work
commuting via transit, biking or Year Auto + Bike + from
Walk Home
walking could more than double,
driven by Final Blueprint investments 2023 58% 11% 31%
in safer and expanded transit services, 2050 No Project 56% 15% 29%
as well as active transportation.
2050 Final Blueprint 48% 23% 29%
Key Plan Strategies
T4. Enhance Security
T5. Implement Pricing T11. Enhance Transit
Measures and Improve T9. Build a Complete
Strategies to Manage Frequency, Capacity
Safety and Cleanliness Streets Network ($9B)
Demand ($5B) and Reliability ($44B)
on Transit ($4B)
7
Strategies & Outcomes: Transit Access and Housing
Households Within 1/2 Mile of High-Quality Transit
Enhanced transit service, combined
Low-Income
with land use policies to focus Year All Households
Households
growth near existing transportation
corridors, could create double-digit 2023 43% 53%
increases in the number of 2050 No Project 46% 54%
households that have access to rail,
ferry or frequent bus service. 2050 Final Blueprint 62% 83%
Key Plan Strategies
H3: Allow a Greater
H6: Transform Aging H8: Accelerate Reuse of
T12. Expand Transit Mix of Housing
Malls and Office Parks Public and Community-
Services throughout Densities and Types in
into Neighborhoods Owned Land for Mixed-
the Region ($28B) Growth Geographies
(<$1B) Income Housing (<$1B)
(<$1B)
8
Strategies & Outcomes: Housing and Affordability
By 2050, low-income households Share of Income Spent on Housing
could see a 42-percentage point
All Low-Income
reduction in the share of their Year
Households Households
income spent on housing, thanks to
Final Blueprint affordable housing 2023 32% 70%
production and preservation 2050 No Project 29% 59%
strategies, plus expanded renter
protections. 2050 Final Blueprint 20% 28%
Key Plan Strategies
H4. Build Adequate H5. Integrate
H2. Preserve Existing
H1. Strengthen Renter Affordable Housing to Affordable Housing into
Affordable Housing
Protections ($2B) Ensure Homes for All All Major Housing
($250B)
($236B) Projects (<$1B)
9
Strategies & Outcomes: Environment and Resilience
By 2050, vulnerable Bay Area homes Share of Households in Risk-Prone
could be protected from sea level Areas/Buildings that are Protected/Retrofit
rise, earthquakes and wildfires Hazard Type Share
(2050 Final Blueprint) Protected
through retrofitting and resilience
Sea Level Rise (2 ft) 95%
measures and residents could also
Earthquake 100%
enjoy 20% more acres of open space
Wildfire (med/high risk) 100%
per capita, even with robust growth.
Open Space Acres Per 1k Residents
Key Plan Strategies All
EN2: Seismic, Wildlife
Year Households
EN1: Adapt to Sea
and Accessibility 2023 113
Level Rise ($96B)
Home Retrofits ($9B)
2050 No Project 91
EN5: Protect and
EN6: Expand Urban 2050 Final Blueprint 141
Manage High-Value
Greening in
Conservation Lands
Communities ($27B)
($35B)
10
Plan Bay Area 2050+ Progress Towards Climate Goal
Note: CARB has Without Plan Bay Adding land use Limiting roadway Adding pricing Adding climate
final approval Area strategies, and transit capacity and safety strategies (-12%)
over the technical projected strategies (-4%) strategies (+<1%) strategies (-6%) such as electric
methodologies & emissions rise as focuses growth results in only drives behavioral vehicles & chargers
assumptions used the region grows near more minor slippage changes that drives the greatest
to quantify GHG
5 attractive on the GHG goal support reduced GHG reductions
impacts and may <1% alternatives to emissions GHG Target
Achieved!
require different 0 driving
Per-Capita Emissions Reduction (%)
or more
conservative -5 -3% -3%
assumptions.
-10
-9%
19% per- -15
capita 2035
GHG emission
reduction -20
target (relative -21%
to 2005) -25
11
Considerations for the Final Blueprint and Beyond
• Plan Bay Area 2050+ is a minor long-range plan update that was scoped
as a limited and focused refresh of Plan Bay Area 2050.
• Similar to the past plan, Plan Bay Area 2050+ has taken an aspirational
approach – leaning into "what it would take" to achieve the long-range
plan's adopted vision and demonstrate meaningful progress on key
performance and equity goals. Horizon: 2018-2019 Plan Bay Area 2050:
2020-2021
• In both Plan Bay Area 2050 and 2050+, "what it would take" has emphasized
expansive public investment, leveraging existing and new revenues.
• Staff acknowledge this approach may require reconsideration given evolving
Plan Bay Area 2050+:
conditions in the region, and recommend that the Commission and Executive 2023-26
Board explore different funding trajectories and policy packages as part of
Plan Bay Area 2060, a major plan update that will kick off in mid-2026.
Plan Bay Area 2060:
2026 and beyond 12
Pivoting to the Plan's Final Phase
Plan Document Environmental Impact Report Implementation Plan
The Plan Bay Area 2050+ Under CEQA, California MPOs The Implementation Plan
document is the primary public- are required to prepare a identifies concrete, near-term
facing deliverable of the long- programmatic EIR for regional actions MTC-ABAG can take to
range planning process. long-range plans. advance the long-range
strategies in the plan.
The Implementation Plan is the most dynamic part of the final phase, with significant opportunity to
identify and shape near-term action priorities through anticipated Final Plan adoption in early 2026.
13
CEQA Process for Plan Bay Area 2050+
We are here
EIR Scoping Draft EIR Draft Release and Final EIR
Comment Period
A Notice of Preparation The Draft EIR will include Public circulation of the The Final EIR will respond
(NOP) was filed after the an environmental analysis Draft EIR includes a 45- to comments, address any
adoption of the Final assessing the potential day comment period and concerns about the
Blueprint in January. impacts of Final Blueprint three public hearings to adequacy of the Draft EIR,
Public circulation included strategies, a "No Project” gather feedback from the and revise the analysis to
a 30-day comment period alternative, and two other community and ensure compliance with
and a virtual scoping alternatives scoped to stakeholders. CEQA requirements.
meeting. reduce environmental
impacts.
14
Next Steps
Late Spring and Early Summer 2025:
• Seek MTC/ABAG policymaker approval to advance the Final Blueprint into CEQA
Late Summer 2025 and Fall 2025:
• Release Draft Plan, Draft EIR, and Draft Implementation Plan
• Complete final round of engagement on draft plan
Early Winter 2026:
• Request that MTC/ABAG policymakers adopt the Final Plan Bay Area 2050+,
including Final Plan, Final EIR, and Final Implementation Plan
Contact:
Chirag Rabari, Plan Bay Area 2050+ Project Manager, crabari@[Link]
