FLOOD HAZARD MAPPING AND FLOOD VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
OF BUILDING STRUCTURES AT SETTLEMENT - SCALE
Suraj Lamichhane1 , Nirajan Devkota1 *, Hari Prasad Poudel1 , Somnath Luitel1
1
Department of Civil Engineering, Pulchowk Campus, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University
Abstract
This research investigates flood hazards and vulnerabilities in Sauraha region of Nepal, employing a multidisciplinary
methodology. Hydrological studies, field surveys, and hydraulic modeling were conducted to assess historical floods, esti-
mate flood discharges, and analyze building vulnerabilities. Findings indicate that major tributaries substantially contribute
to flood flow, with the East Rapti River posing a significant risk. Gumbel’s distribution and Log Pearson’s III distribution
provided anticipated flood discharges for various return periods, illuminating the severity of potential inundation. Hydraulic
simulations forecasted extensive inundation during a 100-year return flood, especially along the riverbanks, impacting
commercial structures and tourist attractions. Vulnerability assessments revealed that 75% of riverside buildings face
extreme vulnerability during such events. Urgent flood protection initiatives, including mandating flood-resilient building
designs and preserving natural drainage systems, are imperative. The study identifies limitations, suggesting detailed
assessments and sophisticated modeling for comprehensive flood mitigation strategies. Overall, this study underscores the
immediate need for targeted interventions to address the persistent and complex flood dynamics in Sauraha.
Keywords: Flood hazard mapping, Vulnerability assessment, Hydraulic modeling, Sauraha region, Flood resilience
1. Introduction ing in human fatalities and infrastructure damages over the
past decades (Dhakal, 2015; Shrestha et al., 2021). No-
Extreme weather conditions, particularly intense precip- table incidents such as the 1993 flood, the 2008 Koshi
itation, significantly elevate the likelihood of catastrophic River flood, and the 2017 water flood underscore the sever-
events like floods, leading to substantial risks and repercus- ity of these events, especially in densely populated areas
sions (McPhillips et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2012; Zhao et and agricultural lands. Such occurrences consistently reveal
al., 2019). These floods occur when rivers exceed critical the most significant losses along riverbanks, exemplified by
flow thresholds, breaching banks and overwhelming exist- events like the 1993 and 2017 floods in Nepal, where exten-
ing flood control measures due to erratic precipitation pat- sive damage was concentrated near waterways (Gautam and
terns (Dulal et al., 2007). The absence of robust develop- Dong, 2018; Ministry of Home Affairs and (DPNet-Nepal),
ment plans, land use changes, poorly planned infrastructure 2009).
in floodplains, and river obstructions markedly escalate the
However, despite various studies documenting these
vulnerability to flooding, leading to significant global loss
events, there remains a considerable gap in understanding
of lives and property annually.
and mitigating the impact of flooding in specific regions,
Nepal, a region profoundly affected by these calami-
notably in Sauraha. This study endeavors to fill this critical
ties, has endured recurrent and devastating floods, result-
void by focusing specifically on the Sauraha region, where
* Corresponding author: Nirajan Devkota recurrent flooding has inflicted substantial losses and dam-
Affiliation: Department of Civil Engineering, Pulchowk Campus, ages. The novelty and significance of this research lie in its
Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University
Email:
[email protected] focused approach toward mapping flood hazards and ana-
(Received: Sept. 27, 2023, Accepted: Oct. 14, 2024) lyzing vulnerability uniquely in the context of geographical
https://doi.org/10.3126/jsce.v11i01.73526 and socio-economic characteristics of Sauraha.
JScE, Vol.11, 2024 Lamichhane et al. - 25
The vulnerability to flooding of Sauraha is multi-faceted, Rapti and Dhungre Khola, was undertaken. The sequential
owing to its geographical proximity to river basins, rapid methodology is delineated in Figure 2.
changes in land use within short periods, and the lack of Concurrent with hydraulic modeling, vulnerability as-
comprehensive studies addressing flood hazard mapping sessments of infrastructure and structures were conducted.
and vulnerability assessment in this specific locale. There- The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM)
fore, the primary objective of this research is to generate de- supplied topographic data used to generate a digital eleva-
tailed flood hazard maps and conduct a comprehensive anal- tion model (DEM) through Kriging’s interpolation method.
ysis of flood vulnerability specific to Sauraha. Understand- Hydraulic simulations were executed using HEC-RAS and
ing the intricacies of flooding in this region is crucial for HEC-GeoRAS models. Scenario modeling and mapping
developing effective mitigation strategies, enhancing emer- considered at least four return periods, including a 100-year
gency response mechanisms, and formulating tailored pre- interval. Zoning procedures involved a continuous interval
ventive measures to alleviate the unique challenges faced in scale for flood inundation levels to construct flood inunda-
Sauraha. tion maps.
Data on individual buildings and infrastructure within
2. Material and Methods the study area were collected, utilizing GPS surveys for
spatial information acquisition. Subsequently, vulnerability
2.1. Study area functions (depth-damage curves) were developed through
Sauraha, situated on the fringes of Chitwan district in empirical and analytical formulations. The empirical mod-
Nepal, is a bustling hub adjacent to the renowned Chitwan els, following Gautam and Dong’s methodology from 2018,
National Park. This locale, depicted in Figure 1, has gar- were chosen for their higher accuracy. Calibration of depth-
nered widespread acclaim as a favored destination among damage models utilized available data and expert opinions
tourists. Its picturesque setting along the East Rapti river, to construct representative models aligned with local con-
however, faces recurrent challenges posed by flooding, re- struction practices. Comparative analysis between hazard
sulting in considerable property damage. These floods em- maps and vulnerability levels for buildings facilitated delin-
anate from the East Rapti river, obstructing local drainage eating performance levels during varying inundation levels.
systems and submerging the adjacent area, including its GIS mapping was instrumental in visualizing flood inun-
tributaries - Dhungre Khola and Budi Rapti. dation maps, lifeline vulnerability assessments, and evacu-
The climate in Sauraha embodies subtropical traits, char- ation planning maps.
acterized by a pronounced summer monsoon from mid-June
to late September, succeeded by a comparatively drier win- 2.2.1 Inventory of the river and flood plain area
ter. Approximately 80 percent of the annual rainfall cas-
cades down during the monsoon, aligning with the defining Throughout the field investigation, an extensive on-site in-
monsoonal pattern observed across the Indian Subcontinent. spection was carried out on the eastern side of the East Rapti
This distinctive weather pattern triggers substantial floods River and within the center of Sauraha Bazar in order to
and alterations in river pathways. Notably, the influence of evaluate the regions affected by the flooding of the river
the northern mountain ranges imparts an orographic effect and nearby streams. The survey aimed to identify key areas
on this region, amplifying rainfall compared to other locales affected by flooding and evaluate existing structural mea-
in the country. The Department of Hydrology and Mete- sures. Detailed documentation of existing structural condi-
orology (DHM) has diligently recorded precipitation data, tions, including assessments of buildings’ structural health
indicating that the average annual rainfall in this study area and potential restoration needs, was carried out. Utilizing
is 1915 mm. Sauraha experiences warm summer tempera- GPS tracking systems facilitated a thorough inventory of
tures, peaking at an average of 34°C in May, while winter the surveyed areas.
ushers in a mix of warm and cold spells, with minimum Additionally, the research involved a comprehensive
temperatures dropping to 7°C in January. The unique en- analysis of the morphological features of the river. Detailed
vironmental landscape of Sauraha is molded by the various assessments and reports were conducted on the morphology
climatic nuances present in the region. of river, identifying areas at risk of erosion and potential
flood hazards along its course.
2.2. Methodology
To meet the outlined objectives, a cross-disciplinary ap- 2.2.2 Detailed physical survey (DRONE survey)
proach was adopted, focusing on the designated pilot study
area. A survey of approximately 2 km² was conducted to The entire Sauraha area, along with the East Rapti River
assess the built environment. Additionally, hydraulic mod- and its surrounding tributaries, underwent a thorough topo-
eling encompassing the two key rivers, namely the East graphic survey. Employing Dynamic Remotely Operated
JScE, Vol.11, 2024 Lamichhane et al. - 26
Figure 1. Location map of the study area
Navigation Equipment (DRONE) facilitated the terrain sur- teristics for the East Rapti River and its major tributaries up-
vey, ensuring precise and detailed mapping of the area. The stream of Sauraha Bazar, encompassing Dhungre, Lothar,
survey coordinates were assigned utilizing benchmarks es- and Manahari, was conducted using Google Earth images
tablished from either the DGPS survey within the area or and topographic sheets. These resources provided crucial
the national trigonometric points established by the survey insights into the catchment’s geographical features and en-
department, leveraging available data for accurate geospa- abled a comprehensive understanding of the area’s hydro-
tial referencing. The DRONE survey methodically charted logical dynamics.
numerous specific characteristics along the river’s edge, en-
compassing private land, current pathways, waterways, and 2.2.4 Flood frequency analysis
defensive constructions like embankments, spurs, gabion
walls, and other relevant structures. Flood frequency analysis serves as a direct predictor for the
peak discharge of a specified frequency by utilizing runoff
2.2.3 Hydrological study (streamflow) data. This method proves most effective in es-
timating flood magnitudes for return periods shorter than
The primary focus of the hydrological study revolved the observable record, where interpolation techniques can
around estimating the designed flood discharge for the East be applied. When forecasting flood flows for extended re-
Rapti River and its principal tributaries within the study turn periods necessitates record extrapolation, caution is ex-
area. To facilitate this assessment, hydrological and meteo- ercised, limiting extrapolation to a maximum of twice the
rological data were sourced from the Department of Hydrol- duration of the available record to ensure accuracy (Zhou
ogy and Meteorology (DHM), supplemented by field obser- et al., 2008). In Nepal, only a handful of locations boast
vations and consultations with the local community. De- streamflow records spanning 30 years, often containing lim-
tailed analysis of the catchment area and its general charac- ited instances of flood occurrences. For estimating flood
JScE, Vol.11, 2024 Lamichhane et al. - 27
Figure 2. Flowchart of methodology
discharge with higher return year frequencies, preference is Dhungre Khola, which joins from the right bank slightly
given to yearly flood series spanning over 25 years. No- upstream of the primary village. Further, multiple small
tably, the Rajaiya station (East Rapti) stands out with an drainages merging into the river within Sauraha were iden-
extensive data series spanning more than 50 years, enabling tified, their confluence points precisely marked and inte-
the application of statistical procedures such as Gumbel’s grated into the HECRAS river network data.
distribution method. This extended record offers a more Table 1 shows the junction assigned to the HECRAS
robust foundation for precise estimations of flood charac- river network. Associated flow data at each junction were
teristics, enhancing the accuracy of flood frequency assess- assigned.
ments. The selection of the Manning’s n value for the hydraulic
model is crucial for both model stability and achieving ac-
2.2.5 Flood modeling curate output results. Manning’s n values that are too low
can result in shallower water depths, elevated velocities,
The simulation of flood flow utilized the HECRAS (Hydro- and potentially induce supercritical flows. This concern is
logic Engineering Centre River Analysis System) software, particularly pronounced in steep streams where velocities
incorporating two-dimensional steady flow water surface are inherently high. To address this, Manning’s n values
profile computation. HECRAS stands as a widely adopted were thoroughly cross-referenced with both observed sur-
hydraulic modeling software renowned for its user-friendly face types and the recommended values proposed by (Mar-
interface and robust tools, particularly for one-dimensional cus et al., 1992) to ensure the assignment of reasonable and
hydraulic calculations in various networks of natural and appropriate values.
constructed channels. For optimal outcomes, the accuracy
and sufficiency of input data are paramount. The model pre-
dominantly utilized Geometric Data and Hydraulic Data as 3. Result and Discussion
its primary inputs. The river network information was care- 3.1. Flood flow analysis
fully geo-referenced, integrating data obtained from field
surveys to guarantee accuracy. Notably, the East Rapti The assessment of flood flow along the East Rapti River
River in Sauraha receives substantial water inflow from and its principal tributaries followed standardized method-
JScE, Vol.11, 2024 Lamichhane et al. - 28
Table 1. River network and junction detail
SN River Reach Junction
1 East Rapti Sauraha Dhungre Khola
2 East Rapti Sauraha Budhi Rapti
3 East Rapti Local drain Local drain just d/s of settlement
Table 2. Flood discharge at Rajaiya (East Rapti) for a different return period
Return Period (Yr) (flow in m3 /s)
Method
2 5 10 25 50 100 200
Gumbel 1290 1800 2140 2570 2890 3210 3520
Log Pearson III 586 985 1270 1647 1935 2227 2524
ologies. Flow contributions from the Manahari, Lothar, and During the 100-year return period, extensive inundation
Dhungre Khola identified as the three major right tributaries was observed across the area, with settlements experiencing
significantly influence the overall flood flow within the river an average depth of 1 meter. The backwater effect stem-
at Sauraha. The estimation of flood discharge of Rapti River ming from the low-sloping tributary of the river triggered
relied on time series flood data obtained from the Rajaiya subsequent inundation within the settlement area. Notably,
gauging station (Station no. 460, Catchment area 579 sq the peripheral indigenous and marginalized settlements sur-
km), spanning a period of fifty-three years since 1963, cru- rounding the core market—comprising mud, wattle, and
cial for the comprehensive flood study. Table 2 presents the daub houses—were notably more vulnerable than the core
anticipated flood discharge for various return periods de- commercial area as in Figure 4.
rived from the analysis using Gumbel’s distribution and Log Figure 4a and 4b portray the flood inundation maps cor-
Pearson’s III distribution. responding to return periods of 25, and 50 years, providing
Similarly, the flood discharge calculations for the gauged visual representations of the extent of inundation.
major tributaries (Manohari and Lothar) followed the same
methodology. However, for the ungauged tributaries 3.3. Flood vulnerability curves for existing building
(Dhungre and Budi Rapti), estimations were generated uti- types
lizing catchment ratio and various empirical methods. The study area predominantly features three primary
Table 3 below provides a summary of the estimated flood building types. An inclusive classification method, estab-
discharge at several locations for 50 and 100 years return lished through field investigations, delineates the existing
periods. Additionally, Figure 3 depicts a schematic plan il- structures into three categories: residential buildings, com-
lustrating the network of the East Rapti River and its major mercial establishments, and wattle and daub houses.
tributaries, central to this study. Several research investiga- Residential structures predominantly consist of rein-
tions carried out on rivers in Nepal, utilizing comprehensive forced concrete, while all identified commercial buildings
historical data, have demonstrated that the Gumbel method are also constructed using reinforced concrete. Wattle and
provides more valuable insights in comparison to alternative daub constructions, commonly found in residential areas,
approaches. (Sharma et al., 2018; B. Thapa and Shrestha, small shop outlets, and other non-building structures, were
2020). The Gumbel method’s effectiveness in modeling ex- also identified. Vulnerability functions were applied to
treme hydrological events, such as floods, by focusing on these three structure types to assess their vulnerability at
the distribution of maximum values of datasets, makes it the building scale during flood events.
a more reliable approach for providing comprehensive in- Figure 5 illustrates the vulnerability curve for residen-
formation for such analyses. This reliability is particularly tial buildings. Complete collapse or dysfunction of residen-
suitable for regions with significant climatic variability (Da- tial structures is projected at an inundation depth of 6 me-
hal and Hazarika, 2019; Karmacharya et al., 2016). ters. Substantial damage, around 50%, is expected at just
1 meter of inundation. Notably, while the curve accounts
3.2. Flood mapping output
for average damage in Asian buildings, the endorsement
A 1D steady flow simulation using HEC-RAS was con- of earthquake-resistant construction systems in major urban
ducted for the East Rapti River. The gathered geometry data areas of Nepal might slightly overestimate damage. Nev-
from field surveys encompassed essential elements such as ertheless, the potential for damage cannot be disregarded.
river cross-sections, bank lines, flow paths, and flow direc- Similarly, the vulnerability curve for commercial buildings,
tions. Hydraulic input data comprised flood profiles for re- including hotels, restaurants, and other commercial spaces,
turn periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. indicates that 50% damage can occur at depths before reach-
JScE, Vol.11, 2024 Lamichhane et al. - 29
Table 3. Summary of estimated flood discharge
River Location Catchment 50 yr flood 100 yr flood
area (km2 ) discharge (cumecs) discharge (cumecs)
East Rapti Start Point, Hetauda - 1 447 2231 2478
East Rapti Rajaiya, Hetauda 579 2890 3210
Manahari Manahari 427 1270 1390
East Rapti After Manahari confluence 1216 5028 5560
Lothar Lothar 169 710 780
East Rapti After Lothar confluence 1510 6256 6912
Dhungre Sauraha 106 313 359
East Rapti After Dhungre confluence 1866 7585 8397
Budhi Rapti Sauraha 230 621 713
East Rapti After Budhi Rapti confluence 2096 8206 9110
Figure 3. Schematic of the major river system considered for design purpose
ing 1 meter, with complete collapse anticipated at 6 meters. highlighted the significance of flood depth rasters in evalu-
Due to non-building items, the damage factor for commer- ating the scale of inundation and potential damage associ-
cial buildings surpasses that of residential ones due to the ated with different return periods (Hoque et al., 2019). Sub-
absence of specific construction regulations. sequently, a vulnerability map was generated based on the
The vulnerability function for traditional wattle and daub flood depth raster corresponding to the 100-year return pe-
constructions indicates complete damage at a depth of 1.7 riod. Figure 6 and Figure 7 showcase these Vulnerability
meters, with 50% damage anticipated at 1 meter depth. maps, utilizing a color-coded scale to denote the scale of
damage, with green indicating very low vulnerability and
3.4. Vulnerability Classification red representing very high vulnerability. The vulnerability
classification of existing building structures is summarized
Qualitative assessment of vulnerability plays a piv-
in the table below. Notably, 75% of the total flooded build-
otal role in guiding decision-making processes. In line
ings were categorized as falling within the very high-risk
with this objective, a score-based vulnerability assess-
category for flood vulnerability. Table 4 encapsulates the
ment was implemented, encompassing various buildings
vulnerability assessment of the existing building structures
within the neighborhood. Table 4 illustrates the adopted
in Sauraha concerning the 100-year return flood in the East
scheme for this assessment. Previous research has shown
Rapti River.
that such evaluations frequently combine multi-criteria
decision-making frameworks with geospatial methodolo-
4. Conclusion
gies to effectively assess flood risks and vulnerabilities (de
Brito and Evers, 2016; Nasiri et al., 2016). Flood maps The prevailing flood threat often denotes a 100-year re-
were carefully constructed to represent the 100-year flood turn period. Alarmingly, 75% of the current buildings lin-
discharge in both the East Rapti and Dhungre Khola rivers. ing the riverside exhibit an extreme vulnerability to floods
Additionally, flood depth rasters for return periods of 2, within this 100-year return period. Most structures along
5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years were prepared. Research has these riverbanks serve commercial purposes, operating as
JScE, Vol.11, 2024 Lamichhane et al. - 30
Figure 4. Flood vulnerability map with depth raster a) for 25 years flood; b) for 50 years flood
Figure 5. Vulnerability function (depth-damage curve) for residential buildings (after Huizinga et al., 2017) (a), commercial buildings (after
Huizinga et al., 2017) (b) and wattle and daub houses at Sauraha (after S. Thapa et al., 2020)
hotels, restaurants, or businesses. Any loss of functional- in building designs, particularly in coastal areas, is crucial
ity in these buildings not only impacts their physical struc- to ensure structural integrity despite potential functionality
tures but also disrupts materials and services, significantly losses.
affecting the tourist attractions of that area. Urgent ini-
Implementing robust hydraulic protections can signifi-
tiatives are imperative to safeguard these structures and
cantly mitigate flood risks in coastal regions. However, it’s
economic activities, especially along the riverbank. Even
crucial to preserve the natural drainage systems within the
well-designed structures are expected to endure substantial
neighborhood. The depletion or extinction of these systems
losses and damages. Therefore, mandating flood resilience
prolongs inundation, exacerbating functionality loss. Revi-
JScE, Vol.11, 2024 Lamichhane et al. - 31
Table 4. Classification of building structures according to the vulnerability of 100 years return flood
Vulnerability class Damage ratio Number of buildings Weightage of total buildings
Very low Vulnerability <0.05 6 2%
Low vulnerability 0.05-0.2 21 8%
Moderate vulnerability 0.2-0.4 23 8%
High vulnerability 0.4-0.6 21 8%
Very high vulnerability >0.6 209 75%
Figure 6. Flood Vulnerability map with depth raster for 100 year flood
talizing natural drainage systems and delineating construc- could also enhance results significantly. The research con-
tion sites while preserving these drainage systems would ducted quantified the magnitude of flood risk and levels of
serve as an ideal strategy to safeguard the neighborhood. vulnerability, highlighting the ongoing severity caused by
While this research simplifies the complex dynamics of complex flood dynamics in the commercial area of Sauraha.
floods, there’s ample room for enhancement. Upgrading This study represents an essential initial phase in addressing
flood models, extending analyses, and enhancing catch- the issue. The implications of this study can pave the way
ment characterization would bolster the reliability of assess- for designing flood protection structures. However, a com-
ments. Detailed assessments and aerial surveys, along with prehensive assessment, encompassing sophisticated hydro-
periodic discharge measurements and the development of logical, hydraulic, and structural modeling and analysis, is
catchment-scale rating curves, could substantially improve urgently required. Thus, the findings of this study should be
outcomes. Deploying analytical flood vulnerability models seen as a starting point, prompting further detailed assess-
JScE, Vol.11, 2024 Lamichhane et al. - 32
Figure 7. Flood vulnerability map – Sauraha for 100-year flood
ments and strategic interventions. Gautam, D., & Dong, Y. (2018). Multi-hazard vulnera-
bility of structures and lifelines due to the 2015
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