Two Systems in the Mind

On November 9, 2011, Daniel Kahneman was awarded the Talcott Parsons Prize by the American Academy for his
pioneering research in behavioral economics. The award, presented at a ceremony in Cambridge, honors outstanding
contributions to the social sciences. At the award ceremony, Kahneman spoke on “Two Systems in the Mind.” An edited
transcript of his presentation follows.

but our intuition wanted to say something appreciate that yes, this is something that
else. That is, we were looking for counter- they had not suspected about their own
intuitive ideas in our own thinking, and we thinking.
devised many problems in which the intu- The examples make us keenly aware of
itive answer is wrong. two kinds of thinking. There is intuition,
To give you a sense of how that works, con- and then there is computation, or reasoning.
sider this example: Steve, who is a meek and The very ½rst study that Amos and I did to-
tidy soul, has a need for order and structure gether was of the statistical intuitions of
and a passion for detail. Is he more likely to be statisticians–that is, people who were quite
a librarian or a farmer? Bearing the descrip- versed in statistics–and we demonstrated
tion of Steve in mind, your intuition tells you that their intuitions were indeed flawed. The
that he resembles a librarian much more than contrast between intuition and reasoning
a farmer. That resemblance is immediately has long been known, but in the past twenty
transformed into a judgment of probability. years, it has attracted considerable atten-
This process happens to most people, and it tion. In psychology, we now speak of two
happens very quickly and quite robustly. types of thinking. Figure 1 reveals one way
In many cases, people can easily solve that thoughts come to mind. The lady in the
problems correctly when presented with photograph is angry, and you know that she
Daniel Kahneman two versions. For example, how much is angry as soon as you see her–as quickly as
Daniel Kahneman, recipient of the American Acad- would you pay for a cold cut of meat that is you know that her hair is dark. The impor-
emy’s 2011 Talcott Parsons Prize, is a Senior Scholar 90 percent fat free, and how much would tant aspect of the experience is that it is
and the Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology, you pay for cold cuts that are 10 percent fat? something that happens to you, it is not
Emeritus, and Professor of Psychology and Public When those two problems are shown to- something that you do. You do not decide to
Affairs, Emeritus, at Princeton University. He has gether, people see that they are identical. make a judgment of this person. You just
been a Fellow of the American Academy since 1993. Viewed separately, however, they are not
identical: people will pay more for 90 per-
cent fat free than for 10 percent fat. There
T he work for which I am being honored
was done in collaboration with Amos
Tversky (see photographs on next page); he
is an immediate intuitive reaction to each
description, an emotional reaction that is
and I had a lot of fun studying judgment and translated into the price that people are will-
decision-making together. For ½fteen years, ing to pay.
I had the exceptional joy of being part- Such self-contained and very short exam-
owner of a mind that was much better than ples were the key to the cross-disciplinary
my mind, and I think Amos felt the same impact of our work. This feature was largely
way. We somehow were better together than incidental; we presented the problems as
we were singly. part of the text so that people would read
The research that we did was essentially the examples and relate them to their own
introspective. We certainly collected data, experience. I think that if we had presented
but that was almost incidental. Our major the data only in the manner in which psy-
method was simply to spend many hours to- chological data are conventionally pre-
gether every day, generating puzzles for each sented, it would have had very little impact.
other. What we were looking for were cases But because we included such relatable ex- Figure 1
in which we knew the answer to a puzzle, amples, people outside the discipline could

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2012 55

t wo syste ms in the mind

Amos Tversky (1937–1996)

writer, undergoes memory training and, a

year later, becomes the Memory Champion
of the United States. He can memorize decks
of cards in a couple of minutes and perform
many other feats of memory that most peo-
ple would consider–and that he, himself,
had considered–incredible. What makes
perceive her. The ancient Greeks described this computation is effortful means that you this kind of accomplishment possible?
seeing the world as largely a passive experi- cannot carry it out while doing something It turns out that the human mind and
ence. In the same way, intuitive ideas come else that is demanding. Very few people can– human memory are much better at some
to mind unbidden, on their own. When you and no one should try–to complete that tasks than others. Evolution has shaped our
look at this picture, notice also that percep- computation while making a left turn into brains so that there are tasks we do easily
tion involves an element of prediction. You traf½c. Attention is a limited resource, and the and others we don’t do easily. In particular,
already know something about what the amount required to perform the computation we are terrible at remembering lists, but we
woman will sound like, and you know some- leaves very little to perform other tasks. If are very good at remembering routes
thing about the general character of the next there is a priority, such as making a left turn through space. If you want to remember a
thing that she will say. into traf½c, you will stop the computation. list, you must imagine a familiar route and
A simple mathematical problem demon- Everyone has an executive control that allo- mentally distribute the items in the list
strates another way that thoughts come to cates attention to different tasks. It deter- around that route. Then you can ½nd these
mind. When ½rst faced with the problem of, mines when attention is required for some items when you need them. This is basically
say, 24 x 17, probably nothing comes to mind. operations and not for others. how people memorize decks of cards and
In order to generate the answer, you have Psychologists have had much to say about perform other miracles of memory.
to do something entirely different. You have the two types of mental operations. One is We are also not very good at understand-
to bring up a program that you learned in automatic, experienced passively and usu- ing sentences that have abstract subjects, but
elementary school, and then you have to ally rapidly. We have called it “fast think- we are very good at thinking about agents.
complete a series of steps, all the while re- ing.” The other is effortful, deliberate, Agents can be people or other things that
membering the partial products and what to demanding of attention. Automaticity is the act. We can assign actions to them, remem-
do next. This is not something that happens de½ning feature of fast thinking, or Type 1 ber what they do, and, in some sense, re-
to you, it is something you do. Now, 2 + 2 = 4 thinking. Effort and deliberate attention are member why they do it. We form a global
happens to you, but 17 x 24 = 408 is some- the main characteristics of Type 2 processes. image of agents.
thing you have to do. The experience that we I have adopted a different terminology: I My choice of terms is considered a sin
have in solving the problem makes us the au- speak of System 1 and System 2. I want to because we are not supposed to explain the
thors of the product; there is a sense of apologize for using this terminology because behavior of the mind by invoking smaller
agency and will. Performing this action re- it is considered almost sinful in the circles in minds within the mind. The reliance on
quires focused attention. which I travel. System 1 and System 2 are homunculi is a terrible thing to do if you are a
Furthermore, it is effortful, and there are ½ctitious characters; they do not exist as sys- psychologist. Nevertheless, I will speak of
several ways of measuring effort. One is phys- tems or have a distinctive home in the brain. System 1 and System 2 because I think it is
iological: the area of the pupil of the eye will Yet, I think these terms are very useful. To ex- easier for people–myself included–to
dilate by approximately 50 percent; heart rate plain my choice, I turn to the book Moonwalk- think about systems than to think about the
will increase; and many other changes will ing with Einstein (2011). In the story, author more abstract Type 1 and Type 2. We can al-
occur while a person is engaged in solving Joshua Foer, who is the brother of writer ways translate any statement about System
that problem. More important, the fact that Jonathan Safran Foer and is himself a science 1 into Type 1 characteristics. For example, we

56 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2012

can say that System 1 generates emotions; in
Type 1 terms, we would say that emotions
arise automatically, effortlessly, and rela-
tively quickly when the appropriate stimulus
arises. But it is often simpler to speak of the
characteristics of System 1 and System 2.
System 2 performs complex computations
and intentional actions, mental as well as
physical. It is useful to think of System 2 as
the executive control of what we think and
what we do. That turns out to be a dif½cult
task; controlling ourselves demands effort.
We know that self-control is impaired when
we are engaged in the effort of doing other
things. For example, if you ask people to re-
member seven digits, and then to perform
other tasks while keeping those seven digits
in mind, they will behave differently than
they would if they were not trying to re- Figure 2
member seven digits. Given a choice be-
tween sinful chocolate cake and virtuous
fruit salad, they are more likely to choose the laboratories, there was a little room where sociative system. That is, we make a power-
chocolate cake if they are trying to remem- people could help themselves to coffee, tea, ful association between eyes and being
ber the seven digits because the effort im- biscuits, and milk. There was an honesty box watched, between eyes and morality, and be-
pairs self-control. Self-control is part of the into which people deposited money. Some- tween eyes and behaving well. The sig-
limited resources system, and we can de- one had the idea to put a poster on top of the ni½cant effect that this association can have
plete the limited resources system so that honesty box that would change from week on behavior operates without people being
after someone has tried for ten minutes to to week (see Figure 2). In the ½rst week, the aware of it. We learn from this experiment
watch an emotional ½lm while keeping a poster featured two gigantic eyes (see the and many others like it that symbolic con-
straight face, the ability to perform a hand- bottom of Figure 2), and people contributed nection in associative memory can control
grip task is weakened. The person is less able about 70 pence. The second week, the poster behavior.
to perform the act of will that is needed to was of flowers, and the contributions fell to System 1 is not only responsible for emo-
make a powerful hand grip. less than 20 pence. The third week, it was tions, but also for skillful behavior. We have
Now that I have introduced you to the two eyes again, and contributions rose; the what we call intuitive expertise, evident in
systems, I will tell you a few things about Sys- fourth week, it was flowers, and contribu- chess masters who can see a situation and
tem 1. Most of the information we have about tions fell. This pattern, which continued say, “white mates in three,” or in physicians
System 1 was not available when Amos and I over several weeks, is a very large and com- who can diagnose a disease at a glance.
did our work. When you put fairly recent psy- pletely mysterious effect insofar as the peo- Highly skilled responses become automatic
chological research together with what we ple contributing to the honesty box are and therefore have the characteristics of Sys-
knew, things begin to make more sense. concerned. They barely knew the posters tem 1 activities. Here again, the skilled solu-
Let me give you an example of the new re- were there; they had no idea what was hap- tions are experienced as if they came to
search. One study was done in a U.K. labo- pening to them. Their unconscious actions mind by themselves. All the moves that
ratory where, as is often the case in U.K. were the result of operations within the as- come to the mind of a master chess player

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2012 57

t wo syste ms in the mind

In order to answer a difficult question, we answer a

related, easier question. The substitution of an easy over, nausea, and many other associated
words. In a sense, you are prepared for them.
question for a hard one is the mechanism of what A number of physiological changes also
occur, indicating that you are generally more
Amos and I labeled “judgment by heuristics.” Some vigilant because the stimulus is threatening.
heuristics are applied deliberately, but many are ap- Finally, there is the word banana. Nothing
suggests that bananas caused the illness, but
plied automatically. that connection was made. The associative
memory automatically searches for a causal
are strong moves, and the diagnoses that two words banana and vomit together. First, explanation. Bananas are available for a
occur spontaneously to a very experienced you read the words automatically. That is, cause, so for a short while you might stay
physician tend to be correct, so correct intu- you did not decide to read the words; in fact, away from bananas because they appear to
itions are part of System 1. System 1 is a you had no choice: this is a System 1 activity. have caused illness. All of this happens auto-
repository of the knowledge that we have Second, unpleasant memories and images matically and is a characteristic of how Sys-
about the world, and its performance is ex- came to your mind. Third, there was a phys- tem 1 works. Our associative system is a
traordinary. ical reaction: you recoiled. Everyone who huge network of ideas. Any stimulus or sit-
For instance, there is a study in which peo- has been exposed to such words–to threat uation activates a small subset of those
ple listen to a series of spoken sentences words–has recoiled. The effect is slight, but ideas. Activation spreads so that you are now
while the events in their brains are recorded. it is measurable. You made a disgusted face; prepared for other ideas, although they do
At some point, an upper-class British male you felt disgust. Interestingly, many of the not come consciously to mind. An impor-
voice says, “I have large tattoos all down my changes that occur, all of which happen very tant feature of this process is that it is highly
back.” Within approximately three-tenths quickly, tend to reinforce each other. The context-dependent.
of a second of hearing the sentence, the emotion of disgust makes you produce a dis-
brain responds with a characteristic signa- gusted face. Making a disgusted face rein-
ture of surprise. An incongruity has been de- forces the feeling of disgust. We know that
tected. Probably all of you detected it from making people shape their face in particular
my description at about that speed. You have ways has an effect on their emotions. For
to recognize that the voice is upper-class example, if people hold a pencil horizontally
British male. Somehow, you have to remem- between their lips, they ½nd cartoons fun-
ber or make the connection that an upper- nier, because holding a pencil like this forces
class British male probably does not have your face into a slight replica of a smile, and Figure 3
tattoos down his back. The conjunction is that makes things funnier. Putting a pencil
surprising, and the brain responds with sur- the other way makes you frown, and you ½nd
prise. In our terms, System 1 would detect cartoons less funny. So what emerges from
the abnormality, then activate System 2 to this reaction is a coherent pattern of activa-
process the incongruity in greater depth. tion.
World knowledge is built into this process. Having seen the two words, you are pre-
I will give you an experience of this phe- pared to see other words that belong to the
nomenon, though you will not enjoy it. In same context, so that if you were listening to
the last twenty years, we have learned that words spoken in a whisper, you would ½nd Figure 4
something happens to anyone who sees the it easier than usual to recognize smell, hang-

58 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2012

 System 1 generates stories, and they tend order to answer a dif½cult question, we an- somewhere between 3.6 and 3.7, depending
to be coherent stories in response to stimuli. swer a related, easier question. The substitu- on how much grade inflation there is at the
What I mean by a story is the causal connec- tion of an easy question for a hard one is institution you have in mind. But we know
tion that people search for automatically. I the mechanism of what Amos and I labeled the mechanism of how this happens. When
do not have time to tell you about the many judgment by heuristics. Some heuristics are ap- I tell you about someone who read fluently
experiments showing this process, but I can plied deliberately, but many are applied au- at age four, you have an impression of how
demonstrate the most important aspect: tomatically. One example is buying travel precocious she was. Then, when I ask you
namely, the coherent solution that is im- insurance. what her gpa is, you generate an answer
posed. Figure 3 is a familiar demonstration The particular study I am about to discuss that is about as extreme as your initial im-
from psychology in the context of percep- was carried out at a time when terror inci- pression of the precocity of a child who
tion. You read the ½rst series of characters as dents were affecting Europe. Some people reads fluently at age four. This is a ridiculous
“A, B, C,” the second as “12, 13, 14.” Of were asked how much they would pay for in- way of answering the question because it vi-
course, as Figure 4 reveals, the B and the 13 surance that pays $100,000 in case of death olates every principle of statistics, but that
are physically identical. In the context of let- for any reason. Other people were instead is the way our intuition works: we substitute
ters, the same ½gure is read as a letter that in asked how much they would pay for insur- an easy question for a hard one.
the context of numbers is read as a number. ance that pays $100,000 in case of death in a There is much more to be said about Sys-
When you take the context into account in terror incident. The study showed that peo- tem 1. I have just written a book about it, but
interpreting any part of the situation, the ple would pay much more for the second I won’t give away the entire book.
ambiguity is suppressed. You are not aware policy than for the ½rst. If they had seen both
when you see the B that it could just as well problems together, they likely would not © 2012 by Daniel Kahneman
be a 13. The suppression of ambiguity is a have offered to pay more for one policy than
general feature of System 1. So we generate for the other, but they saw only one problem.
Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
coherent stories and solutions to problems. Deciding how much you would pay for in-
(New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2o11)
They come to mind very easily, and we are surance is very dif½cult. But you do know
not aware that things could be otherwise. how afraid you are. The paradoxical pattern
I could say much more about System 1, but I of willingness to pay reflects the fact that
To view or listen to the presentation,
will add one key idea. people are more afraid of dying in a terror in- visit http://www.amacad.org/events/
A remarkable feature of our thinking is cident than of dying for any reason. Fear talcottparsons2011.
our expertise. It is not only chess masters does not obey the logic of inclusion, and re-
who have expertise. We have expertise in sponses that are based on fear do not obey
driving. I have expertise in recognizing my the rules of inclusion. This is how we violate
wife’s mood from the ½rst word on the tele- logic. This is why the heuristics of judgment
phone, and I am certainly not alone in that generate biases and errors.
pro½ciency. But there are questions in which I will end with a quick demonstration. I
we do not have expertise, and which are will tell you about Julie, a young woman who
quite dif½cult to answer. But System 1 gen- is a graduating senior at a university. I will
erates answers to those impossible ques- tell you one fact about her: that she read flu-
tions, such as, how happy are you? Or, what ently when she was four years old. Now, I
is the probability that President Obama will will ask, what is her gpa? Oddly enough,
be reelected? We have many answers to im- you all know to some extent what her gpa
possible questions, and they arise very is. It came to your mind very quickly; it is
quickly in our minds. Analysis shows that in more than 3.2, less than 4.0, and probably

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2012 59