Probability: Probability allows us to measure effectively the risk in selecting one alternative over the

others. In general it is a number that describes the chance that something will happen.
Defination: A value between zero and one, inclusive , describing the relative poissibility that an event
will occur. It is expressed either as a percent or as a decimal.
Experiment: An experiment is an act which can be repeated under certain conditions. It is an activity
which is repeated result of an equipment in outcome.
Outcome: A particular result of an experiment.
Event: A collection of one or more outcome of an experiment.
 If an event who has one outcome called simple event
 Which has one or more outcome called composite event
 Event number=2,4,6= that is also event
Types of event: 11 types
1. Simple event: an event which contains a single element
2. Composite event: An event which contains more than one element
3. Finite Event: Which outcome is limited or when the number of event are that is called finite
event
4. Infinite Event: Which outcome is infinite or when the number of element of an event is infinite
that is called infinite event
5. Sure Event: If the happening of an event is certain
6. Impossible event: If the happening of an event is impossible. Which is certain impossible event
7. Complementary Event: If any event of outcome is not possible by other that is called
complementary event. All other event expect a particular event in the event space that is called
the complementary event of that event.
8. Mutually Exclusive Event: Events are said to be mutually exclusive if the happening of an event
prevents the happening of others. Ex: A an employee is selected at random is either a male or a
female but cannot be both.
9. Exhaustive Event: If an experiment has a set of events that includes every possible event that is
called collective exhaustive. Ex: In a dice-tossing event experiment every outcome will be either
odd or even number.
10. Independent event: An event with does not effect the other events is called independent event.
There was one or more condition. Two events A or B are said to be independent if
P(AB)=P(A).P(B)
11. Dependent Event: If the occurance of an event depend the occurance of the previous that is
called dependent event.
12. Equal Event : If the chances of occurance is equal that is called equal event
Probability:
 The likelihood of event
 Express the degree of happening in event
 It is the measuerement and estimate of future
 It is the degree of certainty
 The probability of an impossible event is zero, The probability of a sure event is always one.
Approaches to Probability: (3)
1. Classical: All events are mutually exclusive and equal likely. We will apply this method when
condition is fulfilled.
2. Empirical: We will apply this method based on the previous information
3. Subjective: We will apply this method whenever the information is available at the present time.
Classical/A priori/Mathematical definition of probability: If an experiment can be result is N
exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely outcome and M(Mean) of those outcomes are
favourable to the event(A, Say),then the probability of that event is given by
M
P(A)=
N
Empirical/Statistical/A Posteriori definition of probability: If A is an event and A event occurs r times
in n number of trials, then the ratio r/n will be probability of the event A, If the number of trial n is large.
r
Mathematically: P(A)=Lim n→∝
n
Some Rules Of Probability:
Rules of Addition:
General Rule of Addition: When we want to find the probability of two event s will both happen, we use
the concept of joint probability.
Joint Probability: A probability that measure the likelihood two or more events s will happen
concurrently.
When the events are not mutually exclusive, then the general rule of addition is used
P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B)
Special Rule of Addition: To apply this rule the events are must be mutually exclusive. The special rule
of addition states that the the probability of the event A or the event B occurring is equal to the
probability of event A plus the probability of event B
P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)
Mutually exclusive means when one event occurs none of the other events can occur at the same time.
Rules of Multiplication;
General Rule Of Multiplication: The general rule of multiplication is used to combine events that are
not independent, they are dependent each other. The events are affected by each other. Under these
condition the probability of both A and B occurring is given by:
P (A and B)=P(A).P(B|A) If A happen earlier
P (A and B)=P(B).P(A|B) If b happen earlier |=Given that
If A and B are independent P (B|A)=P(B)
P (A|B)=P(A)
Special Rule of Multiplication: We use this rule when the events are independent. It is used to combine
events where the probability of the second event does not depend on the outcome of first event. The
probability of two independent event A and B occurring found by multiplying the two probabilities.
P (A and B)= P(A).P(B)
Conditional Probability: The probability of a particular event occurring, given that another event
occurred. In the probability of B ‘given that’ A happened.

P ( AB)
P(B|A)=
P( A)
And means Multiplicative Law and OR mean Additive Law
The Complement Rule: The complement rule used to determine the probability of an event occurring by
subtracting the probability of an event not occurring from 1.
Complement Rule: P(A)+P(A)=1
P(A)=1-P(A)
The Problem Of Counting:
Three formulas are very useful for determining the number of possible outcomes in an experiment.They
are the multiplication formula, the permutation formula, and the combination formula.
The multiplication formula: The general rule of multiplication formula is used to combine events that are
mutually exclusive.
Total number of agreements=(m).(n)
The permutation formula:The permutation is an arrangement of objects or things wherein the order is
important .That is each time the objects or things are placed in a different order, a new permutation
results.
n!
Permutation Formula nPr=
( n−r ) !
Where
P is the number of permutations or ways the object can be arranged
n is the total number of objects
r is the number of objects selected.
The Combination Formula:One particular arrangement of the objects without regard to order is called a
combination.
n!
The Combination Formula:nCr=
r ! ( n−r ) !
Where,
C is the number of different combinations
n is the total number of objects
r is the number of objects to be used at one time
BAYES Rule
The relation between the analogous to Shannons theorem and event space is also known as theorem of
total probability and is sometimes called rule of elimination.

P (BjA )
Rule: P(Bj|A)=
P( A)
P ( A|Bj ) P(Bj)
=
∑ P( A∨Bj)(PBj)
Probability Distribution:
A probability distribution shows the possible outcomes of an experiment and the probability of each of
these outcomes .A listing of all outcomes of an experiment and the probability associated with each
outcome.

Discrete Distribution: When only certain outcomes are possible and the distribution is a result of
continuing the various outcomes.
Important feature of discrete probability distribution:
 The listing is exhaustive;that is, all the possible outcomes are included.
 The total of all possible outcome is 1.0
 The probability of particular outcome is between zero and one inclusive
 The outcomes are mutually exclusive
Random Variable: A variable whose value is determined by the outcome of an random experiment.
It has two types
1.Discrete random variable: A variable that can assume only certain clearly separated value.
Continuous random variable: A variable that can assume one of an infinity large number of values with in
certain limitations.
 If the problem involves counting something that is discrete probability distribution.
 If the distribution is the result of a measurement then it is continuous probability distribution.
Mean of a Probability Distribution: This formula directs you to multiply each outcomes (x) by its
probability P(x):and then add the products
Formula:µ=∑ xP(x)
Variance and standard deviation: The variance tells us about the spread or variation in the data.

Variance of probability distribution:σ 2=∑[(x−μ)2 P(x)]

The steps in computing the variance using the formula.

 1.Subtract the mean(µ) from each outcome (x) and square this differences
  2.Multiply each squared difference by its probability p(x)
 3.Sum these products to arrive at the variance

The standard deviation (σ) of a discrete probability distribution is found by taking the square root of σ 2
,thus σ=√σ 2

Discrete Probability Distributions

Binomial Probability Distribution
Total Outcomes
 Success
 Failure
The random variable x will follow binominal distribution.
Probability mass funcion of

P(X)=ncx p x × qn− x

Where
x=0,1,2,3,,,
n=fixed number of trials
p=the probability of getting success in each trials remain constant
q-y=....a failure
q=1-p
x=number of success
Total Probability of all values of a binominal is 1
Mean
Variance is n × p × q

Mean always better than variance

Standard binominal Variable:
x−MP
z=
√ npq
One of the most widely used discrete probability distributions is the binominal probability distribution. It
has the following characteristics:
1) An outcome of an experiment is classified into one of two mutually exclusive categories
a success or a failure.
2) The random variable is the number of successes in a fixed number of trials.
3)The probability of a success stays the same for each trial. So does the probability of a failure.
4)The trials are independent, meaning that the outcomes of one trial does not effect the outcome of any
other trial.
Illustrations of each characteristic are:
1.Each outcome is classified into one of two mutually exclusive categories. An outcome is classified as
either a success or a failure. For example, 40 percent of the students at a particular university are enrolled
in the College of Business. For a selected student there are only two possible outcomes. the student is
enrolled in the College of Business (designated a success) or he/she is not enrolled in the College of
Business (designated a failure).
2. The binomial distribution is the result of counting the number of successes in a fixed sample. If we
select 5 students, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 could be enrolled in the College of Business. This rule out the
possibility of 3.45 of the student being enrolled in the college of business. That is,there cannot be
fractional counts.
3.The probability of a success remains the same from trial to trial. In the example regarding the College
of Business, the probability of a success remains at 40 percent for all five students selected.
4.Each sampled item is independent. This means that if the first student selected is enrolled in the College
of Business, it has no effect on whether the second or the ſouth one selected in the College of Business.

How a Binomial Probability Distribution is Computed:

To construct a binomial probability distribution we need to know:
1.The number of trials, designated n.
2.The probability of success (p) on each trial.

The binomial probability distribution is constructed using the formula:

n x n− x
Binomial Probability Distribution P(X)¿( ) p (1− p)
x
Where:
nCs denotes a combination of items selected x at a time
n is the fixed number of trials
x is the number of observed successes
p is the probability of success on each trial and remains constant.

The mean (µ) and variance(σ 2) of a binomial distribution can be computed by these formulas.

Mean of a binomial distribution m=np

Variance of a binomial distribution¿) = np(1-P)
Poisson Probability Distribution
It is positively squeed distribution
The random variable x will follow poission distribution
Probability mass function F
−m x
e .m
P(x)=
x!
Where
x=1,2,,,,,n
n=number of trials is not fixed
p=the probability of getting a success in each trials remains constant and very small of
Standard Poission Variable
x−μ
z=
√ npq
Poisson probability distribution: Has the same four characteristics as the binomial, but in addition the
probability of success (p) is small, and n, the number of trials,is relatively large and m=np.
The formula for computing the probability of a success is:
−m x
e .m
Poisson Distribution Function is P(X)=
x!
;x= 0,1, 2, 3, ....n
Where
P(x) is the probability for a specified value of x.
x is the number of occurrences (successes).
m is the arithmetic mean number of occurrences (successes) in a particular interval
e is the mathematical constant 2.71828. ( based of the Naperian logarithmic system)
(Note that the mean number of successes, µ can be determined by nπ, where is n is the total number of
trials and π is the probability of success.
Mean and Variance of a Poisson distribution = µ
Continuous Probability Distribution
This chapter examines an important continuous probability distribution - the normal probability
distribution. Recall that a continuous probability distribution can assume an infinite number of values
within a given range. As an example, the weights for a sample of small engine blocks are: 54.3,52.7
53.1and 53.9 pounds.
Normal Probability Distribution
The Greek letter a (lower case µ), represents the mean of a normal distribution and lower case σ)
represents the standard deviation.
Normal probability distribution: A continuous probability distribution uniquely determined by m and 0.
The probability density function of a normally distributed random variable X is
2
−1 x−μ
f(X)= 1 e
( )
2 σ
σ √2 π
;-∞≤X≤∞
The major characteristics of the normal distribution are:
1. The normal distribution is "Bell-shaped and the mean, median, and mode are all equal. Exactly one-
half of the observations are larger than this center value and one-half are smaller.
2. The distribution is symmetrical. A vertical line drawn at the mean divides the distribution into two
equal halves and these halves possess exactly the same shape.
3. It is asymptotic. That is, the "tails of the curve approach the X-axis but never actually touch it.
4. A normal distribution is completely described by its mean and standard deviation. This indicates that if
the mean and standard deviation are known, a normal distribution can be constructed and its curve drawn.
5. There is a "family of normal probability distributions. distribution for each combination of m and 0.
Standard normal distribution: A normal distribution with the mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1.
Z value: The Signed Distance between a selected value designated X, and the population mean, m
divided by the population standard deviation 0
x−µ
Standard Normal Value= Z=
σ
Where,
X is the value of any particular observation or measurement.
µ is the mean of distribution
σ is the standard deviation of the distribution
z is the standerdized normal value, usually called the z value
Overall sample mean is not constant But particular sample mean is constant.