Chapter 4
Chapter 4
4.1 Overview
• This chapter introduces the International Actuarial Notations and Formulas for the Expected
Present Value (EPV) for different life insurances. Second moment and variance are also
covered.
• For each insurance type, we will look at the timing of when the Death Benefit (DB) is paid:
4. Links between discrete and continuous insurances, for example, using Uniform Distri-
bution of Deaths (UDD) within each year of age;
5. Varying insurances — in theory, any type of insurances in this chapter can have a varying
benefit;
6. Recursive formulas;
7. Consideration of selected rates.
• The lecture ordering of topics differs from the textbook, but all topics will be covered.
4.2 Introduction
- Insurance contracts:
- Benefit amount:
- Payment timings:
3. benefit paid at the end of mth year of death (discrete - 1/mthly case).
4.3 Assumptions
• We will mostly assume for Chapters 4 and 5 a constant and fixed interest rate, unless explicitly
stated otherwise.
• Many Chapter 4 textbook examples and exercises use the textbook Standard Ultimate Survival
Model introduced in lecture notes Section 3.4 last example (Or textbook Section 3.9):
• Many Theory of Interest concepts from AS2553 used and built upon
*note that use integration for the continuous case, and summation for discrete cases.
- Calculation of Āx
For the EPV of Z, we have
h i Z ∞
Āx = E[Z] = E e−δTx = e−δt fx (t) dt.
0
Therefore,
Z ∞
Āx = e−δt t px µx+t dt. (4.1)
0
Age x x+t x + t + dt
Time 0 t t + dt
(x) dies
Event (x) survives for t years
“instantly”
Probability t px ≈ µx+t dt
↓ ↓
Present value $1 paid
e−δt
[TBC]
PVRV = Z = S × v Tx ,
EPV = S × Āx ,
2
2 2
Var[Z] = S × Āx − Āx .
Note that 1{A} is the indicate function which equals to 1 if event A is true, and 0 otherwise.
1 def
Āx:n = E[Z] = EPV for an n-year term insurance per $1 payable at m.o.d. of (x)
1
- Calculation of Āx:n
For the EPV of Z, we have
1
Āx:n = E[Z]
Z n Z ∞
−δt
= e fx (t) dt + 0 × fx (t) dt
n
Z0n
= e−δt fx (t) dt.
0
Therefore,
Z n
1
Āx:n = e−δt t px µx+t dt. (4.3)
0
1
Note that as n → ∞, Āx:n → Āx .
Z0n 2
= e−2δt t px µx+t dt − Āx:n
1 .
0
1
and it is Āx:n calculated at 2δ. Therefore,
2
Var[Z] = 2 Āx:n
1 1
− Āx:n ,
• Pure endowments are the fundamental building block for life annuities (Chapter 5) and they
can also be used to link different insurance types.
def
n Ex = E[Z] = EPV for an n-year pure endowment of $1.
n Ex = E[Z]
Z n Z ∞
= 0 × fx (t) dt + v n fx (t) dt
0 n
Z ∞
n
=0+v fx (t) dt.
n
Therefore,
n Ex = v n n px . (4.5)
Note: There is also another notation
Ax: n1 = n Ex
For pure endowment, n Ex or v n · n px is notation typically used.
Therefore,
Var[Z] = v 2n n px n qx .
- Calculation of Āx:n
For the EPV of Z, we have
Z n Z ∞
Āx:n = E[Z] = v t fx (t) dt + v n fx (t) dt.
0 n
Therefore,
1
Āx:n = Āx:n + n Ex . (4.7)
Example 4.2 Assume Z is the present value random variable for a whole life insurance of $b
payable at the moment of death of (x). Given that
(a) δ = 0.04
(b) µx (t) = 0.02
(c) E(Z) = V ar(Z)
Calculate b. [TBC]
Example 4.3 Assume Z is the present value random variable for a 15-year pure endowment of $10
on (x). Given that
(a) v = 0.9
(b) the force of mortality is constant over the 15-year period
(c) V ar(Z) = 0.65E(Z)
Calculate qx . [TBC]
Example 4.4 (Exercise) Assume Z is the present value random variable for a n-year term life
insurance of $5000 payable at the moment of death of (x). Given that
(a) δ = 0.05
(b) µx (t) = 0.007
(c) E(Z) = 266.7826
Calculate V ar(Z).
[Answer: n=10; V ar(Z) = 50002 × 0.04013]
(a) PVRV
0 if Tx ≤ u
PVRV = Z = −δTx
.
v T x =e if Tx > u
def
u| Āx = E[Z] = EPV for a u-year deferred whole life per $1 payable at m.o.d. of (x)
Therefore,
Z ∞
u| Āx = e−δt t px µx+t dt. (4.9)
u
and
1 .
= Āx − Āx:u
u| Āx (4.11)
[TBC]
1 def
u| Āx:n = E[Z] = EPV for a u-year deferred, n-year term life per $1 payable at m.o.d. of (x)
Therefore,
Z u+n
1
u| Āx:n = e−δt t px µx+t dt.
u
1 1
u| Āx:n = u Ex Āx+u:n (4.13)
and
1 = Āx:u+n 1 .
− Āx:u
u| Āx:n
1 (4.14)
[TBC]
u| Āx:n = EPVof a u-year deferred n-year endowment life insurance per $1 (DB payable at m.o.d.).
Show that
1
= u| Āx:n + u+n Ex
u| Āx:n
[TBC]
Example 4.5 The whole life insurance and term life insurance can be expressed as a sum/combination
of a series of one-year deferred term life insurance policies.
Prove the following two identities:
n−1
X ∞
X
1
Āx:n = Āx =
k| Āx:1 , and k| Āx:1 .
1 1
k=0 k=0
what if there is the limiting age ω? (Suppose that both x and ω are integers.)
ω−x−1
X
Āx = k| Āx:1 .
1
k=0
[TBC]
[TBC]
*note that use integration for the continuous case, and summation for discrete cases.
4.5.1 Whole life insurance (DB payable at the end of year of death)
4.5.2 Term life insurance (DB payable at the end of year of death)
4.5.3 Endowment life insurance (DB payable at the end of year of death)
4.5.4 Deferred life insurance (DB payable at the end of year of death)
4.5.1 Whole life insurance (DB payable at the end of year of death)
Death benefit of $1 is payable at the end of year of death.
PVRV = Z = v Kx +1 .
- Calculation of Ax
For the EPV of Z, we have
h i ∞
v k+1 P(Kx = k).
X
Ax = E[Z] = E v Kx +1 =
k=0
Therefore,
∞
v k+1 k| qx
X
Ax = (4.15)
k=0
PVRV = Z = S × v Kx +1 ,
EPV = S × Ax ,
2
Var[Z] = S 2 × 2
Ax − Ax .
Ax = v qx + v px Ax+1 . (4.16)
Proof.
∞ ∞
k+1
v k+1 k px qx+k
X X
Ax = v k| qx =
k=0 k=0
= v 1 0 px qx + v 2 1 px qx+1 + v 3 2 px qx+2 + v 4 3 px qx+3 + · · ·
= v qx + v px v qx+1 + v 2 px+1 qx+2 + v 3 2 px+1 qx+3 + · · ·
= v qx + v px v 0| qx+1 + v 2 1| qx+1 + v 3 2| qx+1 + · · ·
= v qx + v px Ax+1 .
Interpretation: We separate the EPV of the whole life insurance into the value of the benefit due in
the first year, followed by the value at age x + 1 of all subsequent benefits multiplied by px to allow
for the probability of surviving to age x + 1 and by v to discount the value back from age x + 1 to
age x. [TBC]
2
Ax = v 2 qx + v 2 px · 2 Ax+1 .
Find the EPV and the variance of a whole life insurance issued on (88) that provides for a death
benefit of $20,000 payable at the end of year of death.
[TBC]
Suppose that the limiting age is ω. This means that a person aged ω − 1 would certainly die within
the next year, i.e., qω−1 = 1. This also means that the DB is certainly paid at the end of the first
year. Therefore,
Aω = 0,
or equivalently
Aω−1 = v.
Then we use the recursive formular
Ax = v qx + v px Ax+1 .
to calculate Ax backwards from Aω−1 back to Ax0 , where x0 is the minimum age in the table.
Example 4.9 (Spreadsheet Exercise) Create the life table of Standard Select & Ultimate Survival
Models (see Example 3.13) on your own. In your life table, you need to include the functions px ,
p[x] , p[x]+1 , l[x] , l[x]+1 , lx+2 , qx , Ax and 2 Ax for x = 18, 19, . . . , 130. Assume the radix l20 = 100, 000
and the interest rate i = 5%.
• The solution spreadsheet “AS2427 Makeham SSSM Model” (except for 2 Ax ) is on OWL.
• To calculate the column Ax , in practice, we choose a very large age, say, 130 as the “limiting
age”, and then we set A130 = 0.
From there, we can calculate all Ax values backwards; that is A129 , A127 , A126 , . . . For
example A129 = v q129 + v p129 A130 .
[TBC]
1
- Calculation of Ax:n
For the EPV of Z, we have
n−1 n−1
v k+1 P(Kx = k) = v k+1 k| qx .
X X
1
Ax:n = (4.17)
k=0 k=0
Therefore,
2
Var[Z] = 2 Ax:n
1 1
− Ax:n ,
1
(d) Recursive formulas for Ax:n and 2 Ax:n
1
1 1
Ax:n = v qx + v px Ax+1:n−1 . (4.18)
2
Ax:n
1 = v 2 qx + v 2 px 2 Ax+1:n−1
1 .
Find Ax:1
1 and 2 Ax:1
1 .
[TBC]
Example 4.11 You are given i = 6% and the following mortality rates:
You are valuing a 3-year term life insurance policy issued on (50), where the death benefit is $1,000
payable at the end of year of death. Determine
(b) Var[Z].
[TBC]
Example 4.12 You are given that i = 4% and the following mortality rates:
x 1,000 qx
30 1.5289
31 1.6089
32 1.6965
33 1.7927
34 1.8980
35 2.0136
36 2.1402
37 2.2791
38 2.4313
39 2.5982
40 2.7812
Assume that a 10-year term insurance policy is issued to (30) and the death benefit of $1 is payable
at the end of year of death. Determine the EPV.
[TBC]
Example 4.13 (Relation between whole life and term life insurances) Prove the following relation
between whole life and term life insurances where the DB is payable at the end of year of death.
1
Ax = Ax:n + n Ex Ax+n .
def
Ax:n = E[Z]
- Calculation of Ax:n
For the EPV of Z, we have
1
Ax:n = Ax:n + n Ex . (4.19)
Example 4.14 Identify the difference between term insurance and endowment insurance factors:
1
Ax:n v.s. Ax:n .
2
Ax:n = 2 Ax:n
1 + v n n Ex .
A special Actuarial Notation is used to denote the EPV for a u-year deferred whole life per $1
payable at the end of year of death of (x):
def
u| Ax = E[Z]
u| Ax = u Ex Ax+u
and
1 .
= Ax − Ax:u
u| Ax
(2) Deferred term life insurance (DB payable at end of year of death)
Death benefit of $1 is payable at the end of year of death, only if (x) dies between u and u + n years
after policy issue. So
0 if Kx ≤ u − 1 or Kx ≥ u + n
PVRV = Z = .
v Kx +1 if u ≤ Kx ≤ u + n − 1
A special Actuarial Notation is used to denote the EPV for a u-year deferred, n-year term life
insurance per $1 payable at the end of year of death of (x):
1 def
u| Ax:n = E[Z]
and
1 = Ax:u+n 1 .
− Ax:u
u| Ax:n
1
Example 4.16 Find the EPV for a 30-year term insurance policy issued on (50), assuming i = 6%
and the $100,000 death benefit is payable at the end of year of death.
You are also given the following values that were extracted from a life table:
[TBC]
Example 4.17 (Exercise) Find the EPV for a 20-year $50,000 endowment insurance policy issued
on (50). Assume that i = 6% and the death benefit is payable at the end of year of death. You are
also given the following values that were extracted from a life table:
Example 4.18 An special insurance policy is issued on (65) that has a death benefit of $250,000
if death occurs between ages 70 and 80, and $150,000 if death occurs after age 80. Assume that
i = 6% and the death benefit is payable at the end of year of death.
You are also given the following values that were extracted from a life table:
Set up an equation that could be used to determine the EPV of this policy. [TBC]
1
Kx(m) = ⌊m Tx ⌋ = the future lifetime of (x) in years rounded to the lower 1/m of a year
m
• Death benefit is paid at the end of 1/mth year of death; that is,
1
Time of DB payment = Kx(m) + .
m
0 1 2 3 Time
0 1 2 3 Time
(2) 1
Time of DB payment = K50 + .
2
• Example 2: If Tx = 23.675,
2
Kx = 23, Kx(2) = 23.5, Kx(4) = 23.5, Kx(12) = 23 = 23.6667.
3
*note that use integration for the continuous case, and summation for discrete cases.
4.6.1 Whole life insurance (DB payable at end of 1/m-year period of death)
Death benefit of $1 is payable at the end of 1/m-year period of death.
Therefore,
∞
k+1
A(m)
X
x = v m k 1
| qx . (4.20)
m m
k=0
where 2 A(m)
x is A(m)
x calculated at 2δ (or equivalently, v replaced with v 2 ).
Other insurances (including the deferred insurances) with DB payable at the end of 1/m-year
of death can be derived accordingly. For Example:
- Term life insurance with $1 DB payable at the end of 1/m-year of death:
(m)
1 1
v Kx + m if Kx(m) ≤ n −
PVRV = Z = m .
0 if Kx(m) ≥ n
nm−1
(m) def X k+1
A1 = E[Z] = v m
| qx .
k 1 (4.21)
x:n m m
k=0
(m) (m)
Ax:n = A1 + n Ex . (4.22)
x:n
Example 4.20 (Exercise) Show that the following recursion formula holds:
1 1 (m)
A(m)
x = vm 1 qx + v m 1 px Ax+ 1
m m m
(1) Assume the death benefit is payable at the end of month of death. Find the EPV.
[TBC]
(2) What is the EPV if the death benefit is paid at exactly a month after the date of death?
[TBC]
Āx A(m)
x Ax
[TBC]
• Can approximate mortality rate for fractional periods (using methods covered in Lecture notes
Section 3.2 Fractional Age Assumptions.)
– UDD within each year of age is the assumption used most often
– CF within each year of age can also be used
i
Ā = A (4.23)
δ
and
i
A(m) = A (4.24)
i(m)
i
Note that δ = ln(1 + i), and i(m)
is given in the Exam LTAM Tables.
(m)
What about the approximation for Āx:n or Ax:n ? [TBC]
Example 4.23 Calculate the E(Z) and Var(Z) for a $50,000 whole life insurance policy issued to
(50) where the death benefit is payable at moment of death. Assume UDD over each year of age,
i = 6% and that you are given:
2
A50 = 0.2490475 and A50 = 0.0947561.
[TBC]
Example 4.24 Calculate the EPV for a 30 year $10,000 endowment insurance policy issued to (35)
where the death benefit is paid at the moment of death. Assume UDD over each year of age. You
are given
1
i = 6%, A35:30 = 0.06748178, 30 E35 = 0.1392408.
[TBC]
Example 4.25 You are given i = 6%, p30 = 0.9984711 and p31 = 0.9983911.
1
Determine Ā30:2 , assuming
[TBC]
• Idea: The only difference between continuous and discrete insurances is the timing of the DB
payment.
For example,
A(4)
x ≈ (1 + i)
3/8
Ax .
• In general, for an 1/mthly life insurance, the possible timings of payment are
1 2 m
Kx + , Kx + , . . . , Kx + ,
m m m
assuming deaths are uniformly distributed over the year of age, the average timing of DB
payment is
m+1
Kx + ,
2m
which is 1 − m+1
2m
= m−1
2m
years earlier than the end of year.
Therefore, the approximation under this method is
m−1
A(m)
x ≈ (1 + i) 2m Ax . (4.26)
Let m → ∞,
1
Āx ≈ (1 + i) 2 Ax . (4.27)
1
What about Āx:n and Āx:n ?
• Note that for all the insurance benefits, the following rules always hold:
X Z
EPV = E[Z] = or amount × discount × probability.
*note that use integration for continuous case, and summation for discrete cases.
Example 4.26 Consider a special insurance that pays $1,000 after 10 years if (x) dies by that time,
and $2,000 after 20 years if (x) dies in the second 10-year period, with no benefit otherwise. Write
out the PV and EPV. [TBC]
Example 4.27 Let Z be the present value random variable of a whole life insurance with the DB
paid at the moment of the death of (x). Given that µx (t) = 0.02, δ = 0.08 and the benefit amount
at time t is bt = e0.03t . Find Var(Z). [TBC]
• For example, the EPV of the continuous life insurance can be calculated as
Z Z
EPV = E[Z] = amount × discount × probability = bt · e−δt · t px µx+t dt
k=0
(4) Annually increasing Whole life payable at the end of 1/mth year of death:
∞
(m)
(m)
Kx 1
+m
X k k+1
IA = E(Z) = E[(Kx + 1)v ]= (⌊ ⌋ + 1)v m k | 1 qx
x
k=0 m m m
• Term
life insurance
with increasing benefit
is defined similarly:
¯ 1
I Ā x:n 1 1
I Ā x:n (IA) x:n IA (m) 1
x:n
k=0
(4) Annually increasing Term life payable at the end of 1/mth year of death:
nm−1
k k+1
IA(m) 1
X
x:n = (⌊ ⌋ + 1)v m k | 1 qx
k=0 m m m
• Note that
D̄Ā 1
x:n
1
= n Āx:n − I¯Ā 1
x:n
1 1 1
DĀ x:n = (n + 1) Āx:n − I Ā x:n
Example 4.28 A $100,000 Whole Life Insurance Policy payable at the moment of death is issued to
(x). It provides for the Return of Premiums paid (without interest) if death occurs within 10 years
of policy issue. The policyholder pays an annual premium P at the beginning of each year for life
of the policy.
What is an expression for the EPV of all the policy benefits? [TBC]
Example 4.29 You are given i = 6% and the following annual mortality rates
Example 4.30 A whole life insurance policy offers an increasing death benefit payable at the end
of the quarter of year of death. If (x) dies in the first year of the contract, then the benefit is $5,000.
If (x) dies in the second year, the benefit is $10,000. If (x) dies in the third year, the benefit is
$15,000, and so on.
What if the death benefit is $5,000 for the first year, $6,000 for the second year, $7,000 for the third
year and so on?
Example 4.32
(a) Derive a recursion formula for (IA)x . (The formula should include (IA)x+1 ).
1 . (The formula should include (IA) 1
(b) Derive a recursion formula for (IA)x:n [TBC]
x+1:n−1 ).
• Example: If DB is $1 in year 1, $(1 + j) in year 2, $(1 + j)2 in year 3, and so on, where DB
is payable at the end of year of death, then the n-year term life insurance has the EPV:
n−1
1
(1 + j)k v k+1 k| qx =
X
EPV = 1
Ax:n i∗ ,
k=0 1+j
(1+i)
where v ∗ = (1 + j)v, or equivalently 1 + i∗ = 1
v∗
= (1+j)
, or
i−j
i∗ = .
1+j
Example 4.33 A 10-year term life insurance issued to (x) provides a death benefit at the end of
year of death. The death benefit is $100,000 if death occurs in the first year, $110,000 if death
occurs in the second year, and so on with the death benefit increasing by 10% each year (over the
previous year’s death benefit).
(a) Define Z.
(b) Derive an expression for the EPV of this policy.
Example 4.34 For a whole life insurance of $1000 on (80), with death benefits payable at the end
of the year of death, you are given
(1) Mortality follows a select and ultimate mortality table with a one-year select period
(2) q[80] = 0.5q80
(3) i = 6%
(4) 1000A80 =679.80 and 1000A81 =689.52
Find 1000A[80] .
[TBC]
Example 4.35 You are given i = 4% and the following select life table
[TBC]