ASIA SOFTS DAILY NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Friday, September 29, 2023
SUGAR - October raw sugar settled up 0.6 cent, or 2.3%, at 26.73 cents per lb with the NY SUGAR SET CHANGE HIGH LOW VOLUME OI
market showing signs of resuming its recent advance after a period of consolidation. OCT3 26.73 0.60 26.85 25.95 19285 72187
The market climbed to a 12-year high of 27.62 cents last week, boosted by tightening
supplies with production in India and Thailand likely to fall due to dry weather linked MAR4 26.96 0.59 27.07 26.2 70734 448565
to an El Nino weather event. The pace of the Brazilian harvest could fall in October, MAY4 25.67 0.54 25.73 24.97 23389 129590
dealers said, as there is forecast for widespread rains in the sugarcane belt. Top U.S.
sugar producing state Louisiana expects lower output of the sweetener this season, an LDN SUGAR SET CHANGE HIGH LOW VOLUME OI
outcome that will tighten supplies in a market where prices are already hovering DEC3 716.60 7.30 718.00 704.20 5600 46138
around all-time highs. The Alma Mill in Lakeland, southeastern Louisiana, started
operations Wednesday, and other mills in the state are expected to follow through MAR4 713.50 8.30 715.10 702.00 5230 22239 S
next week, said Kenneth Gravois, sugarcane specialist at the Louisiana State MAY4 702.80 9.50 703.80 690.40 1684 14630
University. "Production is going to be off. Still hard to say to what extent," he said,
adding that the state received below-average rains all along the cane development NY SPREAD SET CHANGE HIGH LOW VOLUME U
period. December white sugar rose $7.30, or 1%, at $716.60 per metric ton. OCT3-MAR4 -0.23 0.01 -0.19 -0.31 12006
MAR4-MAY4 1.29 0.05 1.35 1.21 13015
G
Oil futures eased about 1% on Thursday, as traders took profits after prices soared to
10-month highs, and some worried that high interest rates may weigh on oil demand.
Earlier, scarce supply and inventory supplies lifted the Brent front-month hit $97.69,
MAY4-JUL4 1.02 0.1 1.070 0.9 7035
A
its highest since November 2022. WTI rose to its highest since August 2022 at $95.03. LDN SPREAD SET CHANGE HIGH LOW VOLUME
"Oil was ripe for a pullback. After coming a few dollars short of the $100 level, energy
traders are quickly locking in profits," Edward Moya, senior market analyst at data and
DEC3-MAR4 3.10 -1.00 4.40 1.00 1910 R
analytics firm OANDA, said in a note. The U.S. economy maintained a fairly strong MAR4-MAY4 10.70 -1.20 12.10 10.60 1041
2.1% pace of growth in the second quarter and appears to have gathered momentum MAR4-MAY4 23.70 -0.20 24.80 22.00 318
this quarter with a resilient labor market driving strong wage gains. Falling U.S. crude
inventories follow combined cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day to the end of the year
by Saudi Arabia and Russia, part of OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies.
COCOA - March London cocoa settled up 29 pounds, or 1%, to 2,933 pounds per ton,
but remained some way off recent 46-year highs. Concerns about weakening demand
are helping erase some of the market's recent gains. Cocoa remains underpinned NY COCOA SET CHANGE HIGH LOW VOLUME OI
however by tight supplies linked to crop disease in top producing region West Africa. DEC3 3459 43 3471 3425 23340 135815
December New York cocoa rose $43, or 1.3%, to $3,459 a ton. New York cocoa may
retrace into $3,118-$3,279 per metric ton in the fourth quarter, as it failed to break a MAR4 3464 47 3475 3429 10975 80673
resistance at $3,775. The resistance is identified as the March 2011 high. It is enforced MAY4 3436 40 3447 3405 3533 32672
by other two, respectively the 138.2% projection level of a wave C from $2,092 and
the 61.8% projection level of a bigger wave (C) from $1,756. Theoretically, both of LDN COCOA SET CHANGE HIGH LOW VOLUME OI
these waves are capable of extending above $3,732, with the wave C to end around DEC3 2978 25 2991 2951 4879 84032
$4,013 and the wave (C) to peak around $4,842. Strategically, focus should be on the
depth of the current correction. The correction may turn out to be the third leg of a MAR4 2933 29 2944 2908 6659 122984 C
long-term three-wave cycle from $3,775. A bearish engulfing is likely to be confirmed MAY4 2846 32 2853 2822 2107 38885
by end of Friday, signalling a reversal of the steep uptrend from the October 2022 low
of $2,284. NY SPREAD SET CHANGE HIGH LOW VOLUME O
DEC3-MAR4 -5 -4 1 -7 5301
The British pound was set to snap a six-session losing streak on Thursday as the
MAR4-MAY4 28 7 28 20 1998
C
dollar's relentless rally paused, but was still on track for a near 4% drop this month as
markets trimmed peak rate expectations for the Bank of England. The Bank of England
last week left interest rates unchanged, refraining from hiking the Bank Rate for the
MAY4-JUL4 25 -3 29 24 632
O
first time since December 2021, amid signs that the economy is slowing and inflation is LDN SPREAD SET CHANGE HIGH LOW VOLUME
beginning to fall towards its 2% target. Money markets are still pricing in one more
rate hike from the BoE, which would take the Bank Rate to 5.5%. However, that
DEC3-MAR4 45 -4 51 38 2429 A
remains well below previous market expectations for a peak above 6%. MAR4-MAY4 87 -3 90 87 970
MAY4-JUL4 77 0 79 73 696
COFFEE - December arabica coffee settled down 2.05 cents, or 1.4%, at $1.472 per lb.
Green coffee stocks in Japan, the world's fourth largest consumer, rose to 2.49 million
bags in August from 2.44 million bags in July, but they are still below the five-year
average of 3.02 million bags for August, said the Coffee Trading Academy. November
robusta coffee rose $22, or 0.9%, at $2,469 a ton. Vietnam's coffee market remained
lacklustre with local prices falling this week ahead of the new harvest, while prices in
Indonesia were lower following global cues and a stronger dollar, traders said.
Indonesia's August Sumatra robusta coffee bean exports at 16,166.17 metric tons, a NY COFFEE SET CHANGE HIGH LOW VOLUME OI
decline of 55.48% on a yearly basis, trade office data showed on Friday. On a monthly DEC3 147.2 -2.05 150.25 146.45 20343 102078
basis exports rose from 15,133.55 metric tons shipped in July. Coffee exports from
Vietnam are estimated to have decreased 7.3 in the first nine months of 2023 from a MAR4 148.35 -2 151.20 147.65 10402 47742
year earlier to 1.27 tonnes, equivalent to 21.6 million 60 kg (130 pound) bags, the
General Statistics Office said on Friday. Coffee export revenue for Vietnam, the world's
MAY4 149.15 -1.8 151.80 148.35 6773 27062
C
biggest producer of the robusta bean, rose 1.9% to $3.2 billion in the January- LDN COFFEE SET CHANGE HIGH LOW VOLUME OI
September period, the agency said. Its coffee shipments in September are estimated
at 65,000 tonnes, valued at $205 million.
NOV3 2469 22 2484 2445 8081 53896 O
JAN4 2372 26 2375 2342 7255 26510
Most Latin American currencies and stock markets rose as the U.S. dollar pulled back MAR4 2312 19 2315 2288 1771 18635 F
from recent highs. Both Latin American stocks and currencies in the region have been
on a losing trajectory for the last few sessions as investors flocked to the U.S. dollar NY SPREAD SET CHANGE HIGH LOW VOLUME
and bonds on prospects of interest rates staying high in the United States. The DEC3-MAR4 -1.15 2.25 -1 -1 5015
F
Brazilian real edged up 0.1% against the dollar after the central bank revised its
E
economic growth forecast for 2023, raising it to 2.9% from 2% projected earlier, and MAR4-MAY4 -0.8 2.6 -0.6 -0.85 3921
estimated a 1.8% increase in 2024 gross domestic product. Brazilian central bank MAY4-JUL4 -0.9 2.5 -0.75 -1 1944
policymakers also reiterated that the bank is unlikely to step up the pace of its interest
rate hikes. LDN SPREAD SET CHANGE HIGH LOW VOLUME E
NOV3-JAN4 97 -4 111 94 3631
Source: Thomson Reuters
JAN4-MAR4 60 7 64 53 1147
MAR4-MAY4 30 5 32 24 459
SOFTS COMMITMENT OF TRADERS DATA
Monday, September 25, 2023
NEW YORK POSITIONS LATEST PREVIOUS %OI LONDON POSITIONS LATEST PREVIOUS %OI
MANAGED NET 213492 202660 16 MANAGED NET 28530 28540 31
LONG 262378 251714 20 LONG 32772 32780 36
SHORT 48886 49054 4 SHORT 4242 4240 5
SWAP NET -66078 -97505 -8 SWAP NET -502 -3201 -1 S
LONG 105278 101512 8 LONG 6364 5282 7
U
SHORT 171356 199017 16 SHORT 6866 8483 8
PRODUCER NET -215523 -177886 -14 PRODUCER NET -29207 -26641 -32 G
LONG 341954 390291 30 LONG 33067 39110 36
SHORT 557477 568177 44 SHORT 62274 65751 68
A
OTHER NET 16818 18683 1 OTHER NET -1456 -1666 -2 R
LONG 49487 50819 4 LONG 660 753 1
SHORT 32669 32136 3 SHORT 2116 2419 2
TOTAL OI 1176429 1287476 0 TOTAL OI 91065 95500 100
DATE: 25-09-23 DATE: 25-09-23
NEW YORK POSITIONS LATEST PREVIOUS %OI LONDON POSITIONS LATEST PREVIOUS %OI
MANAGED NET 79541 78982 18 MANAGED NET 64842 65980 14
LONG 114822 114910 18 LONG 68629 70107 14
SHORT 35281 35928 8 SHORT 3787 4127 1
SWAP NET -719 825 0 SWAP NET -37274 -45096 -8 C
LONG 16431 17842 4 LONG 25130 17179 5
O
SHORT 17150 17017 4 SHORT 62404 62275 13
PRODUCER NET -89216 -90503 -20 PRODUCER NET -34619 -26966 -7 C
LONG 90524 88358 20 LONG 255324 258568 53
SHORT 179740 178861 40 SHORT 289943 285534 61
O
OTHER NET 7155 6915 2 OTHER NET 2755 2370 1
A
LONG 16266 17857 4 LONG 9209 10279 2
SHORT 9111 10942 3 SHORT 6454 7909 1
TOTAL OI 440791 443495 0 TOTAL OI 477939 471093 100
DATE: 25-09-23 DATE: 25-09-23
NEW YORK POSITIONS LATEST PREVIOUS %OI LONDON POSITIONS LATEST PREVIOUS %OI
MANAGED NET -15805 -30396 -15 MANAGED NET 26571 16535 20
LONG 34760 31946 16 LONG 41296 31200 31
SHORT 50565 62342 31 SHORT 14725 14665 11 C
SWAP NET 28893 30354 15 SWAP NET -3603 -2971 -3
LONG 40096 40446 20 LONG 2727 2296 2
O
SHORT 11203 10092 5 SHORT 6330 5267 5 F
PRODUCER NET -25371 -14536 -7 PRODUCER NET -19516 -9166 -14
LONG 42363 48341 24 LONG 53422 59241 40 F
SHORT 67734 62877 31 SHORT 72938 68407 54
E
OTHER NET 11397 13818 7 OTHER NET -9841 -10002 -7
LONG 18160 19745 10 LONG 2035 1046 2 E
SHORT 6763 5927 3 SHORT 11876 11048 9
TOTAL OI 193463 201016 0 TOTAL OI 135248 127032 100
DATE: 25-09-23 DATE: 25-09-23
Darren Stetzel - Vice President, Soft Commodities, Asia One Raffles Place, #12-62, Tower 2, Singapore 048616
[Link]@[Link] Tel: +65-9820-6323
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