6

DNA
2

2014 5 15

83
 L Jack L. Snyder

4
3
5
1 Alan
Macmillan Ken Booth Russell Trood

1990 3
2
Alastair
Iain Johnston

intervening variable

84
 6

Shu Guang Zhang

1100 1911 3,790
10

realpolitik
11
parabellum
paradigm Confucian-Mencian paradigm
12

85
 13

14

Michael Pillsbury
15

Andrew Scobell

16

86
 6

17

1840 42
1930 40
1950 1960 80

irredentism

1949

1989 6
2

87
 18

19

5 9

88
 6

20

2,500

21

22

23

89
 24

25

26

1997 3 ASEAN
ARF
27
1998

90
 6

28

1954

David M.
Finkelstein
29

1
2

91
 4

2014 5
CICA

30

31

92
 6

32

33

34

2
35

1955

93
 1964 1966
1966
1970

36

5,000

37

94
 6

3 2
2

1989

38

95
 39

1 2007 2007 10
27
2 60
2014 5 <http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2014-05/15/c_1110712488.htm>
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4 4 2006
167 2012 1
5 167 2012 1 4-6
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12 2019 2 11-15
13 1997 1 8-15
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14 27 32
15 China 2049
100 BP 2015 1 Michael Pillsbury, The Hundred-Year
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16 Andrew Scobell, China’s Use of Military Force: Beyond the Great Wall and the Long March,
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17 9 118
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19 3 1983 179
20 Michael Pillsbury, China Debates the Future Security Environment, (Washington, DC: National
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21

1999 38-40

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22 83-85
23 34 38
24 135-136
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26 China 2049 58-60 Pillsbury, The Hundred-Year Marathon, pp.

35-36
27 David M. Finkelstein, “China’s New Security Concept: Reading between the Lines,” The CNA
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28 1996-1999 2 2000
348-349
29 David M. Finkelstein, “China’s New Security Concept: Reading between the Lines,” pp. 10-11.
30 2014 394-397
31 5 2 2003 3 76-79
32 2003 61
33 4-5
34 1987 21-25
35 1996 18-19
36

37 2005 12
2005 12 52-54
38 China 2049 1 Pillsbury, The Hundred-Year Marathon, chapter 1
39 29

98