1.
Introduction
Rapid population growth in small and medium-sized cities is a global phenomenon, yet it
takes on particular characteristics in developing countries such as Mozambique. According to
Cohen (2006), urban growth in these contexts is primarily driven by two factors: natural
population increase and rural-to-urban migration. Additionally, authors like Todaro (1980)
highlight that migration to cities, even when not always accompanied by adequate economic
opportunities, is motivated by the search for better living conditions, access to basic
services, and security—factors especially relevant in regions affected by armed conflicts.
Pemba, the capital of Cabo Delgado province, exemplifies this reality, experiencing
accelerated population growth. According to data from the National Institute of Statistics
(INE), the population increased from approximately 160,000 inhabitants in 2015 to around
250,000 in 2023. This rise is driven not only by internal migration caused by displacement
resulting from armed conflict in the province—as discussed by Kellenberg & Mobarak (2011)
regarding the relationship between conflict and urban displacement—but also by the natural
population growth of local residents.
This population increase has multidimensional impacts on urban, economic, and social
development. According to UN-Habitat (2016), unplanned urban growth in developing
countries can result in serious challenges related to urban infrastructure, sanitation,
housing, and social inclusion. Conversely, authors such as Satterthwaite (2010) argue that
urban growth can also represent an opportunity to stimulate local economies, promote
social innovation, and strengthen community networks.
This study aims to analyze the impacts of overpopulation in Pemba, addressing both the
challenges and opportunities arising from this process, with the objective of providing
insights for more effective and sustainable public policies.
1.1. Objectives
1.1.1. General Objective
To analyze the effects of overpopulation in small Mozambican cities, with a specific
focus on the city of Pemba.
1.1.2. Specific Objectives
To identify the main causes of accelerated population growth in Pemba.
To evaluate the positive and negative impacts of overpopulation in the city.
To propose potential solutions and urban management strategies to minimize
negative effects and maximize the positive aspects of population growth.
1.2. Methodology
This study employs a qualitative approach, grounded in a critical literature review and
documentary research, following the methodological guidelines for exploratory and
descriptive studies outlined by Gil (2008). Data collection included diverse sources such as
academic articles, governmental reports, documents from international organizations
(including UN-Habitat and the National Institute of Statistics - INE), and journalistic material,
allowing for triangulation of information and a comprehensive understanding of the local
reality.
Additionally, statistical data were gathered to understand Pemba’s demographic dynamics,
supporting the quantitative analysis of population growth between 2015 and 2023. The
methodology also relied on the deductive method, starting from the specific case of Pemba
to build reflections and generalizations about the phenomenon of overpopulation in small
Mozambican cities, in line with Yin’s (2015) recommendations for urban case studies.
Documents related to internal displacement in Cabo Delgado were also examined to
understand the socio-economic and political context influencing population movement and
urban growth in the city. This multidimensional approach enables an integrated analysis of
the social, economic, and territorial aspects related to overpopulation.
2. Development of the Work
2.1. Causes of Population Growth in Pemba
According to Cohen (2006), urban growth in developing countries is largely driven by two
main factors: rural-to-urban migration and natural population growth. This dynamic is clearly
observable in the city of Pemba, the capital of Cabo Delgado province, Mozambique.
Between 2015 and 2023, the city’s population grew considerably, as shown in Graph 1,
increasing from around 160,000 inhabitants in 2015 to approximately 250,000 in 2023,
representing an increase of over 55% in less than a decade.
One of the key factors for this growth is internal migration, heavily influenced by the armed
conflict affecting northern Cabo Delgado since 2017. Thousands of people have fled more
affected districts, such as Mocímboa da Praia, Macomia, and Palma, in search of safety,
shelter, and access to basic services. Pemba, as a relatively safer urban center with better
infrastructure, has become the main destination for these internally displaced persons,
significantly contributing to the city’s rapid population increase.
In addition, a significant natural growth is observed, resulting from high birth rates, common
in contexts of low education and limited access to sexual and reproductive health services.
In many communities in Pemba, especially in the outskirts, large families are common,
further driving demographic growth even in the absence of migration.
Another relevant factor is the city’s relative economic attractiveness. Although
unemployment is high, Pemba continues to offer better opportunities than the surrounding
rural areas, especially in the informal sector. The presence of humanitarian organizations,
tourism enterprises, and infrastructure projects also attracts migrants in search of better
living conditions.
Lastly, accelerated urbanization, often not accompanied by effective land-use planning
policies, contributes to the city’s disorganized growth. The expansion of informal
neighborhoods in areas like Muxara, Cariacó, Natite, and Ingonane is a direct reflection of
this rapid and spontaneous occupation process, driven by the continuous arrival of new
residents.
Graph 1 – Estimated Population Growth in Pemba (2015–2023)
Source: Estimates based on INE data and local reports.
2.2. Positive Impacts of Overpopulation
Despite numerous challenges, overpopulation can also generate positive effects, especially
when effective public policies and community initiatives harness the human potential
present. One of the main positive impacts is the stimulation of the local economy. The
increase in the number of inhabitants creates greater demand for goods and services, which
boosts various sectors such as commerce, transport, food services, and informal service
provision. Small businesses, like food stalls, tailoring shops, motorcycle taxis, and
neighborhood grocery stores, frequently emerge to meet the new needs of the population,
promoting local entrepreneurship.
The diversity of cultures, ethnicities, and backgrounds—brought mainly by internally
displaced persons and migrants from other provinces or neighboring countries—also
contributes to the city's sociocultural enrichment. This diversity can foster new artistic
expressions, religious practices, diverse cuisines, and innovative forms of social coexistence.
In neighborhoods like Natite and Paquitiquete, this multicultural interaction is evident,
which, despite challenges, also translates into knowledge exchange and the strengthening of
solidarity networks among residents.
Another positive aspect is the potential growth of the labor market, especially in the
informal sector. Many displaced or migrant families, even under adverse conditions, develop
survival strategies and create their own sources of income, working as street vendors,
informal mechanics, bricklayers, hairdressers, fishermen, or providers of small services.
These activities, though often outside formal structures, contribute significantly to the
circulation of income and the economic vitality of peripheral neighborhoods.
Furthermore, population concentration can motivate public and private investments in
infrastructure and services, provided that there is responsible urban planning. The presence
of a large and active population can attract NGOs, international cooperation projects, and
government programs aimed at housing, health, education, and community development.
Finally, overpopulation can represent a powerful social force for transformation, provided it
is mobilized in an organized way. Community movements, neighborhood associations, and
youth networks have been gaining strength in Pemba, seeking collective solutions to urban
problems, promoting active citizenship, and demanding their rights from local authorities.
2.3. Negative Impacts of Overpopulation
However, the negative effects of overpopulation in Pemba are significant and concerning.
There is immense pressure on basic services. The supply of drinking water, sanitation,
electricity, health, and education has become insufficient to meet the growing demand.
There are constant reports of overcrowding in hospitals and schools, as well as the
degradation of public spaces, which often do not receive proper maintenance due to
overuse and limited public resources.
Informal housing has increased in risk areas and without any urban planning. This
unregulated growth results in irregular occupations on hillsides, flood-prone areas, or near
high-voltage power lines, exposing thousands of people to risks of natural disasters and
accidents. This significantly increases the social and environmental vulnerability of the
population, hindering access to fundamental rights and compromising community safety.
Unemployment and poverty have worsened with the massive arrival of people, many of
them internally displaced due to armed conflict in other regions of the province. This
pressure on the informal labor market, coupled with the lack of sustainable economic
opportunities, has generated social tensions, exclusion, and consequently, increased crime
and urban insecurity.
According to UN-Habitat (2016), unplanned urban growth can severely compromise the
quality of life in cities, leading to environmental degradation and increasing social
inequalities. In Pemba, the expansion of informal neighborhoods like Muxara and Natite has
been observed, with precarious housing, lack of basic sanitation, poorly maintained access
roads, and a scarcity of essential services such as health centers, schools, and public
transport.
Moreover, rapid growth hinders long-term planning by municipal authorities, making urban
management reactive rather than strategic. This perpetuates cycles of exclusion, where the
most vulnerable populations remain on the margins of public policies, without a voice in
decisions that directly affect their daily lives.
2.4. Strategies and Possible Paths
To mitigate the negative impacts, it is necessary to strengthen the city’s urban management
capacity. This includes investments in basic infrastructure, sustainable urban planning,
creation of social housing, and expansion of public services. Cooperation between the
central government, municipal authorities, and international partners can be decisive.
Promoting the local economy through vocational training, support for micro-entrepreneurs,
and social inclusion programs is also essential. In the medium and long term, public policies
that promote balanced development between urban and rural areas can help reduce
pressure on small cities like Pemba.
Moreover, it is crucial to implement efficient solid waste management systems to avoid
environmental pollution and improve public health. Strengthening the institutional
capacities of municipal authorities through continuous training and adoption of digital
technologies for urban monitoring can contribute to more effective governance.
Another important strategy is encouraging community participation in planning and
decision-making processes, ensuring that policies reflect the real needs of the local
population. Partnerships with universities and research centers can also generate innovative
solutions based on scientific evidence.
Land-use planning, through updated master plans, should consider future growth and define
zones for compatible land use, avoiding unregulated expansion. Promoting resilient and
affordable housing projects for vulnerable populations is another essential measure to
ensure urban sustainability.
3. CONCLUSION
This study has elucidated that the rapid population growth in Pemba represents a
multifaceted phenomenon driven by both internal migration resulting from armed conflict in
Cabo Delgado province and natural demographic increase. The resultant overpopulation
imposes substantial strain on urban infrastructure, essential public services, and resource
management systems, thereby undermining residents’ quality of life and exposing
limitations in institutional capacity for effective urban planning and governance.
However, this concentration of population also presents potential opportunities for
economic revitalization and sociocultural enrichment, contingent upon the implementation
of sound public policies and robust urban management strategies. Consequently, it is
imperative to adopt integrated and sustainable approaches that facilitate orderly urban
expansion, enhance the provision of basic services, and promote social inclusion, thus
mitigating the adverse effects associated with overpopulation.
Employing a qualitative methodology grounded in documentary research and statistical data
analysis, this study provides comprehensive insights into the causes and consequences of
overpopulation in Pemba, contributing to the evidence base necessary for informed policy
formulation. It is recommended that decision-makers and relevant stakeholders prioritize
sustainable urban development strategies that foster balanced, resilient, and inclusive
growth to improve living conditions for the city’s expanding population.
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