Major Project Report
Title
Solar & Wind Power Forecasting using LSTM/GRU Models for Accurate Renewable
Integration in Microgrids
1. Introduction & Problem Statement
The global energy sector is rapidly transitioning toward renewable energy sources such as solar
and wind due to environmental and economic considerations. However, the intermittent and
uncertain nature of these sources creates significant operational challenges for microgrids,
including:
● Over/undercharging of batteries.
● Load imbalances leading to unreliable power supply.
● Increased dependence on fossil fuel–based backup generators.
To address these issues, time-series forecasting models using Artificial Intelligence (AI) and
Machine Learning (ML) are employed. Among advanced ML methods, Long Short-Term
Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) networks are highly effective in modeling
sequential data such as weather patterns and renewable power outputs.
By accurately forecasting solar irradiance, wind speed, and power output, we can enhance
microgrid reliability, optimize energy storage utilization, and minimize dependency on diesel
generators.
2. Objectives
1. Develop LSTM and GRU forecasting models for solar and wind power generation.
2. Evaluate model performance using MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R² metrics.
3. Integrate forecasts into microgrid operation for optimized load scheduling and battery
charging.
4. Demonstrate reduced renewable power fluctuations and improved system stability.
3. Methodology
The project methodology follows a step-by-step execution plan:
Step 1: Data Collection
● Sources:
o NASA POWER (solar radiation & meteorological data)
o NREL (wind resources)
o IMD (Indian regional climate/weather data)
● Parameters:
o Solar irradiance (W/m²)
o Temperature (°C)
o Wind speed (m/s)
o Humidity (%)
o Historical power output (kW)
Step 2: Data Preprocessing
● Handling missing values using interpolation.
● Normalization and feature scaling for ML compatibility.
● Conversion of continuous datasets into time-series sequences for model training.
Step 3: Model Development
● LSTM Model: A deep learning recurrent neural network designed for long-term time-
series dependencies.
● GRU Model: A simplified version of LSTM with fewer parameters, often faster with
similar accuracy.
● Training: 2–3 years of historical weather and power output data.
● Frameworks: Python (TensorFlow/Keras).
Step 4: Model Evaluation
● Performance Metrics:
o Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
o Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)
o Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
o Coefficient of Determination (R²)
● Comparative analysis of LSTM vs GRU based on forecasting accuracy and
computational efficiency.
Step 5:
MATLAB Simulink
Create Microgrid Model
Components: PV array, wind turbine, battery storage, diesel generator, load.
Use Simulink blocks (Renewable Energy Toolbox).
Import Forecast Data
Export LSTM/GRU forecast results (CSV file from Python).
Feed this as an input signal for PV and wind generation blocks.
Energy Management Logic
If forecast > load → charge battery.
If forecast < load → discharge battery.
If still insufficient → use diesel generator.
Compare Cases
Without Forecasting: Battery scheduling based only on real-time measurements.
With Forecasting: Battery pre-scheduled using LSTM/GRU outputs.
Evaluate Performance
Metrics: battery SOC (state of charge), diesel generator run-time, % load served.
4. Expected Outcomes
● Accurate short-term (hourly) and day-ahead forecasts of solar and wind power.
● Improved microgrid operational stability and reduced power fluctuations.
● Comparative insights into LSTM vs GRU performance.
● 10–15% improvement in battery utilization efficiency.
● Reduced diesel generator dependency, resulting in lower emissions and cost savings.
5. Tools & Technologies
● Programming & ML: Python, TensorFlow/Keras, Scikit-learn, Pandas, NumPy,
Matplotlib.
● Datasets: NASA POWER, NREL, IMD.
● Simulation: MATLAB Simulink / Python-based microgrid simulator.
● Evaluation: Statistical error metrics (MAE, RMSE, MAPE, R²).
Block Diagram
Explanation of the Microgrid Integration Diagram
1. Input: Weather Data
Data such as solar irradiance, temperature, wind speed, humidity is collected from
NASA POWER, NREL, or IMD.
This serves as the input for the forecasting model.
2. LSTM / GRU Forecasting Model
The AI/ML model (LSTM/GRU) processes weather data.
It predicts short-term and day-ahead renewable generation (solar & wind power).
Output: Forecasted Solar & Wind Power.
3. Energy Management Algorithm
This is the decision-making brain of the microgrid.
It uses forecasted generation + current load demand to decide:
● When to charge/discharge the battery,
● When to directly supply load,
● When to start diesel backup if renewables + battery aren’t enough.
4. PV Generation Block
Represents solar power generation based on forecasted irradiance.
Feeds power into the microgrid & EMS.
5. Wind Turbine Generation Block
Represents wind power generation using forecasted wind speeds.
Feeds power into the EMS along with PV.
6. Battery Storage (SOC Control)
SOC = State of Charge of the battery.
EMS uses forecasts to decide optimal charging/discharging.
Helps balance fluctuations in renewable generation.
7. Load
Represents microgrid demand (houses, industries, etc.).
EMS ensures reliable supply by combining PV, wind, battery, and backup sources.
8. Diesel Backup
Acts as the last resort.
If renewable + battery cannot meet the load → EMS activates diesel generator.
Forecasting helps minimize diesel usage (reducing cost & emissions).
