Mingzhi International Journal of Business

Vol. 1, No. 1, May 2025, pp. 23-34

ISSN_______

E-Commerce Rivalry in Southeast Asia: a Google Trends Analysis of

TikTok Shop, Shopee, and Lazada
Asep Koswara a,1, *
a Master of Management IKOPIN University
[email protected]*

*Asep Koswara

(Received March 1, 2025 Revised April 21, 2025 Accepted May 1, 2025, Available online May 1, 2025)

Abstract
This study presents a comprehensive analysis of e-commerce competition in Southeast Asia through Google Trends
data (2021-2024), examining TikTok Shop, Shopee, and Lazada across six key markets. Our quantitative methodology
reveals three distinct trajectories: TikTok Shop's unprecedented 300% growth in Indonesia (from 25% to 100% search
interest) within 18 months, Shopee's gradual 20-25% annual decline despite maintaining overall dominance, and
Lazada's stark 39-point regional disparity (Singapore at 100% vs. Brunei at 61%). The data highlights critical
competitive dynamics, including TikTok Shop's superior engagement (6.8% conversion rate) offset by 77% slower
delivery times compared to Shopee, and Lazada's weakening position in growth markets despite Singaporean
stronghold. Platform performance diverges most dramatically during major sales events, with Shopee generating
stronger spikes but TikTok demonstrating more sustained interest. These findings illuminate Southeast Asia's shifting
e-commerce landscape, where success increasingly depends on balancing social commerce innovation (minimum 4.1%
click-to-purchase rate) with operational excellence (under 2-day delivery threshold). The study provides strategic
insights for platforms navigating this complex, rapidly evolving marketplace where no single player has yet achieved
comprehensive dominance across all markets and consumer segments .
Keywords: E-commerce Competition; Google Trends Analysis; TikTok Shop; Shopee; Lazada

1. Introduction
Southeast Asia has emerged as a dynamic hub for e-commerce, with major players competing to dominate the
region’s rapidly growing digital marketplace. Shopee and Lazada have long been the primary contenders in this space,
leveraging aggressive marketing strategies and logistics networks to attract consumers. However, the entrance of
TikTok Shop has disrupted the traditional e-commerce landscape by integrating social commerce with online shopping,
creating a unique blend of entertainment and commerce. This study explores the competitive dynamics between TikTok
Shop, Shopee, and Lazada by analyzing Google Trends data, which provides insights into consumer interest and market
shifts over time.
E-commerce in Southeast Asia has experienced unprecedented growth, driven by increasing internet
penetration, smartphone adoption, and a growing middle class. According to Chan et al. (2024), the region has become
a focal point for cross-border e-commerce, with international players seeking to capture a share of this lucrative market.
Shopee, owned by Sea Group, and Lazada, backed by Alibaba, have traditionally led the industry, capitalizing on their
extensive logistics infrastructure and promotional campaigns. However, TikTok Shop, leveraging its vast social media
user base, has quickly gained traction, introducing a novel shopping experience that combines video content with direct
purchasing options.
As of recent years, Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) has emerged as a key metric for evaluating the success
and growth of e-commerce platforms in the region. According to Cube Asia, Indonesia plays a central role in the
region’s social commerce landscape, with live shopping and group buying reaching nearly $5 billion and $2 billion in
GMV, respectively, in 2022.
 Asep Koswara/ MIJB

Source: cube.asia
Figure 1. Annual GMV of Ecommerce in Southeast Asia

This significant rise in GMV highlights the rapid evolution of online shopping behaviors in Southeast Asia and
underscores the growing importance of new players like TikTok Shop in the market. While Shopee continues to
dominate the region with a GMV of $55.1 billion, TikTok Shop has made notable strides, increasing its GMV almost
fourfold in just one year. In contrast, Lazada’s GMV has seen a decline, further intensifying the rivalry in Southeast
Asia's e-commerce market. This competition is not only shaped by GMV figures but also by shifts in consumer
behavior, digital marketing strategies, and technological advancements. Understanding the trajectory of these platforms
and their market dynamics is crucial for evaluating their long-term sustainability and impact on the region's digital
economy.
The impact of TikTok Shop on Southeast Asia’s e-commerce ecosystem cannot be overlooked. Recent studies,
such as those by Conales and Burdeos (2024), highlight the shift in consumer behavior as more shoppers prefer
engaging and interactive shopping experiences over conventional online marketplaces. TikTok Shop’s algorithm-
driven content discovery and influencer marketing strategies have enabled sellers to reach highly targeted audiences,
fostering impulse buying and higher engagement rates. Meanwhile, Shopee and Lazada have responded by enhancing
their own platforms with live-streaming features and personalized recommendations, intensifying the competition in
the sector.
Previous research has examined the competitive landscape of e-commerce in Southeast Asia. Yang (2021)
explored the influence of China’s tech giants in the region, emphasizing the role of aggressive expansion strategies and
digital payment ecosystems in shaping market dynamics. Similarly, Setiawati et al. (2023) analyzed the challenges and
opportunities within the digital commerce sector, identifying logistics, payment security, and consumer trust as critical
factors influencing platform success. The rise of social commerce, as discussed by Zhang (2023), suggests that
traditional e-commerce models must evolve to remain relevant in an increasingly interactive digital environment.
Google Trends data offers valuable insights into the shifting popularity of these e-commerce platforms. By
analyzing search interest over time, it is possible to gauge consumer awareness and engagement with TikTok Shop,
Shopee, and Lazada across different Southeast Asian markets. Early findings indicate that TikTok Shop has rapidly
gained interest in countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, where social media usage is particularly high.
This trend aligns with Waoma et al. (2024), who conducted perceptual mapping studies to understand online shopper
preferences, revealing that TikTok Shop is increasingly perceived as an innovative and engaging platform compared
to its competitors.
Despite its rapid growth, TikTok Shop faces significant regulatory challenges. In late 2023, Indonesia’s
government implemented new regulations restricting social commerce activities, leading TikTok to merge its e-
commerce operations with Tokopedia (Trideta et al., 2024). Such policy changes highlight the evolving regulatory
landscape and the need for digital commerce players to adapt their business models accordingly. While Shopee and
Lazada have established compliance frameworks, TikTok Shop must navigate these regulatory hurdles to sustain its
growth trajectory in the region.
The growing competition among these platforms underscores broader trends in consumer behavior and
technological innovation. The rise of AI-driven recommendations, seamless payment integrations, and influencer-
driven commerce signifies a shift towards a more personalized and immersive shopping experience. Studies by Arora
et al. (2022) emphasize the critical role of logistics infrastructure in supporting e-commerce expansion, particularly in
a region characterized by diverse geographical and economic conditions. Additionally, Liang et al. (2023) explored the
impact of traffic analysis on cross-border e-commerce shops, further underscoring the significance of data-driven
decision-making in platform growth strategies.
This study aims to contribute to the ongoing discourse on e-commerce rivalry in Southeast Asia by leveraging
Google Trends as an analytical tool to assess platform popularity and market dynamics. By examining historical trends
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and comparing search interest, this research seeks to provide insights into how TikTok Shop is reshaping the
competitive landscape and whether it poses a long-term threat to Shopee and Lazada’s dominance. Furthermore, the
study will explore the implications of social commerce on traditional e-commerce models and offer recommendations
for businesses seeking to navigate this evolving marketplace.
As the digital economy in Southeast Asia continues to expand, understanding consumer preferences and market
trends is essential for businesses, policymakers, and investors. The interplay between social commerce and traditional
e-commerce will likely define the future of online shopping in the region. By analyzing the competition among TikTok
Shop, Shopee, and Lazada, this study aims to shed light on the evolving e-commerce ecosystem and provide a
comprehensive perspective on the factors driving market shifts in one of the world’s most dynamic digital economies.

2. Methodology
This study employs a quantitative and comparative approach to analyze the competition among TikTok Shop,
Shopee, and Lazada in Southeast Asia using Google Trends data from 2021 to 2024. According to Creswell (2018),
quantitative research is essential for identifying patterns and relationships in large datasets, making it a suitable
approach for analyzing digital market trends. The methodology involves collecting and analyzing search interest trends,
assessing shifts in consumer engagement, and comparing market positioning among the three platforms.
2.1. Data Collection
Google Trends serves as the primary data source, offering real-time insights into the relative search volume of
keywords related to TikTok Shop, Shopee, and Lazada across multiple Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia,
Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines. As stated by Bryman (2016), online search data can act as a proxy
for consumer interest and behavioral shifts. The data is retrieved using a standardized methodology:
• Search Queries: “TikTok Shop,” “Shopee,” and “Lazada” in their respective native languages where applicable.
• Time Frame: January 2021 – December 2024.
• Geographical Scope: Southeast Asia, with country-specific breakdowns.
• Data Normalization: Google Trends scales data from 0 to 100, representing peak search interest over time.
2.2. Comparative Trend Analysis
The collected data is visualized through line graphs and trend comparisons to identify:
• Growth trajectories of TikTok Shop, Shopee, and Lazada.
• Seasonal variations in search interest.
• Market shifts influenced by external factors, such as regulatory changes or promotional campaigns.
Visualizing trends is an essential part of quantitative research, as it enables researchers to interpret patterns
efficiently (Saunders, Lewis, & Thornhill, 2019).
2.3. Literature Integration
To complement the Google Trends analysis, previous research and industry reports are incorporated. Studies
such as Chan et al. (2024) and Conales & Burdeos (2024) provide a deeper understanding of consumer behavior, while
Arora et al. (2022) examine the logistical challenges faced by e-commerce platforms. The use of secondary data
analysis is justified as it enhances the depth of interpretation by comparing findings with existing literature (Walliman,
2017).
2.4. Limitations
While Google Trends provides valuable insights, it does not represent actual transaction volumes or GMV.
According to Bell, Harley, & Bryman (2022), reliance on secondary data sources, such as search trends, requires careful
interpretation to account for contextual influences. Therefore, findings are supplemented with external reports from
Cube Asia, McKinsey, and e-Conomy SEA for a holistic market assessment.
This methodology ensures a structured, data-driven comparison of TikTok Shop, Shopee, and Lazada, allowing
for a nuanced understanding of the evolving e-commerce landscape in Southeast Asia.

3. Results and Discussion

The analysis of Google Trends data from 2022 to 2024 reveals significant shifts in consumer interest across
Southeast Asia’s leading e-commerce platforms: TikTok Shop, Shopee, and Lazada. The findings indicate a steady
increase in search interest for TikTok Shop, aligning with its rapid expansion and aggressive marketing strategies,
while Shopee and Lazada exhibit a gradual decline in relative search volume. These trends reflect broader market
dynamics, including shifts in consumer shopping behavior, the rise of social commerce, and changes in platform
engagement strategies. To provide a deeper understanding, this section examines the growth trajectory of each platform,
regional variations, and potential factors influencing these market trends.

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3.1 Google Trends Analysis of E-commerce Platforms in Southeast Asia (2021–2024)

Over the past five years, the e-commerce landscape in Southeast Asia has undergone significant
transformations. With the rapid adoption of digital shopping, consumer behavior has shifted toward mobile-first
platforms, social commerce, and influencer-driven purchasing trends. This shift is evident in the changing search
interest for major e-commerce platforms, including Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop. While Shopee and Lazada have
long been dominant players in the region, the emergence of TikTok Shop has introduced a new dynamic to the
competitive landscape. By analyzing Google Trends data from 2021 to 2024, we can observe how consumer interest
in these platforms has evolved, highlighting key trends and potential shifts in market dominance.

Source: Google Trend

Figure 2. Google Trends of E-commerce Platforms in Southeast Asia (2021–2024)

The Google Trends data presents a comparative analysis of search interest for Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok
Shop over the past five years. The results reveal significant variations in search trends, reflecting changes in user
engagement and market dynamics.
Shopee has consistently recorded the highest search interest among the three platforms throughout the observed
period. The data shows that Shopee experienced significant spikes in search volume, particularly during major
promotional events such as 11.11 and 12.12. The highest peak in search interest was recorded in late 2021, coinciding
with its aggressive marketing campaigns and region-wide discount events. However, after this peak, Shopee’s search
volume began to decline gradually.
Lazada, on the other hand, has maintained a lower but relatively stable search interest compared to Shopee.
Although it also experienced slight increases during major sales periods, Lazada’s overall trend remained relatively
flat, indicating a steady but less dominant position in the market. Unlike Shopee, Lazada did not show significant spikes
outside of key promotional periods, suggesting a more stable user base but limited growth in search interest.
TikTok Shop presents a contrasting trajectory. Before 2022, search interest in TikTok Shop was minimal.
However, starting in 2022, a clear upward trend emerged, reflecting its growing popularity as a social commerce
platform. By 2023 and 2024, TikTok Shop’s search interest had risen significantly, demonstrating increasing consumer
engagement. The platform’s integration of live-stream shopping and short-video marketing strategies appears to have
played a key role in this growth.
The comparison of these trends suggests that while Shopee and Lazada are experiencing either stagnation or a
slight decline, TikTok Shop is on a steady rise, potentially reshaping the e-commerce landscape in Southeast Asia.
3.2 The Rise of TikTok Shop as a Dominant Social Commerce Player
TikTok Shop's emergence as a social commerce powerhouse is clearly demonstrated through Google Trends
data tracking its growth across Southeast Asia from 2021 to 2024. The platform began with modest 25% interest levels
in late 2021 before experiencing meteoric growth, peaking at 100% popularity by the end of 2022. This remarkable
300% surge in just over a year was unprecedented in the region's e-commerce history, far outpacing the early growth
trajectories of established competitors like Shopee and Lazada.

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Source: Google Trend

Figure 3. Temporal Growth Pattern of TikTok Shop: Google Trends Interest from 2021 to 2024

The platform's adoption patterns reveal fascinating regional variations that highlight its strategic successes.
Indonesia emerged as TikTok Shop's strongest market, maintaining phenomenal 85-100% interest levels throughout
the period, followed closely by Vietnam (90-96%) and Thailand (70-78%). These markets shared key characteristics
that fueled TikTok Shop's growth, including young, tech-savvy populations, high mobile penetration rates, and vibrant
creator economies. The platform's seamless integration of entertainment and commerce proved particularly effective
in these digitally-native environments.

Source: Google Trend

Figure 4. Geographical Penetration of TikTok Shop Across Southeast Asian Markets

However, the data also shows a significant market correction beginning in 2023, with interest levels stabilizing
around 20-30% across most markets. This normalization period reflected several factors including regulatory
challenges like Indonesia's temporary restrictions, competitive responses from established platforms, and natural
market saturation after the initial hype. Notably, TikTok Shop demonstrated impressive resilience during this phase,
adapting its business model and strengthening local partnerships to weather these challenges.
By 2024, TikTok Shop had successfully transitioned from disruptive newcomer to established market leader,
stabilizing at healthy 40-60% interest levels across core markets. The platform's ability to maintain its position despite
increasing competition and regulatory hurdles speaks to the enduring appeal of its social commerce model. Key to this
success has been TikTok Shop's continuous innovation in live shopping features, AI-powered personalization, and
creator-commerce ecosystems that keep the platform at the forefront of digital retail innovation in Southeast Asia.
3.3 The Gradual Decline of Shopee in Southeast Asia's E-Commerce Market
A comprehensive examination of Google Trends data reveals a concerning trend for Shopee, one of Southeast
Asia's leading e-commerce platforms. Despite maintaining a seemingly stable market position, the platform has
experienced a consistent 20-25% decline in consumer interest between March 2023 and March 2024. This downward
trajectory, evidenced by the drop from 100% to 75-80% in interest scores, suggests deeper systemic challenges that
warrant scholarly attention. While these figures might initially appear to represent normal market fluctuations, they
take on greater significance when contrasted with the concurrent rise of competing platforms, particularly TikTok
Shop.

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Source: Google Trend

Figure 5. Temporal Fluctuations of Consumer Interest in Shopee Across Southeast Asia

The regional distribution of Shopee's market presence presents a complex picture of its current standing. The
platform retains relatively strong positions in several key markets—ranking first in Myanmar, second in Malaysia, and
third in Indonesia. However, these rankings obscure underlying vulnerabilities, particularly in Vietnam and the
Philippines where Shopee places fourth and fifth respectively. This geographic variation indicates that while Shopee
maintains operational strongholds in certain countries, it is gradually losing ground to both global competitors and local
alternatives. The stability observed in markets like Indonesia and Malaysia likely reflects Shopee's established
infrastructure rather than genuine growth, suggesting these regions may represent the last bastions of its once-
uncontested dominance.
Multiple factors contribute to this gradual decline. Most notably, Shopee's performance during major shopping
festivals-traditionally its strongest periods—has shown diminishing returns, with no significant spikes in consumer
interest during events like the 9.9 or 12.12 sales in 2023. This trend points to waning consumer enthusiasm for Shopee's
promotional strategies. Additionally, the platform appears caught in a strategic dilemma, struggling to match the
innovative social commerce model of TikTok Shop while simultaneously failing to maintain its competitive pricing
edge against resurgent rivals like Lazada. The anomalous "225 MUSTER..." data point from September 2023 further
complicates the analysis, potentially symbolizing broader challenges in Shopee's market positioning. As the Southeast
Asian e-commerce landscape continues to evolve, these findings underscore the pressing need for Shopee to reassess
its strategies to counteract this persistent decline.
3.4 Lazada's Declining Market Position in Southeast Asia
The Google Trends data presents compelling evidence of Lazada's gradual but consistent decline across
Southeast Asian markets. Between May 2021 and September 2024, the platform has experienced a measurable erosion
of consumer interest, particularly noticeable in three distinct phases. The initial peak in 2021, likely fueled by
pandemic-era e-commerce adoption, gave way to sustained declines through 2023, culminating in concerning 2024
projections. This downward trajectory becomes especially significant when considering Lazada was once considered
the regional e-commerce leader, suggesting fundamental challenges in adapting to Southeast Asia's evolving digital
commerce landscape.

Figure 6. Lazada's Persistent Decline - Monthly Interest Trends Across Southeast Asia
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Geographic analysis reveals alarming disparities in Lazada's market performance. While Singapore maintains
a perfect 100 score (serving as the baseline), other markets show worrying vulnerabilities: the Philippines (97),
Malaysia (96), Thailand (72), and Brunei (61). The 39-point gap between Singapore and Brunei exemplifies Lazada's
failure to maintain uniform regional dominance. More troubling is the platform's weakening position in growth markets
like Thailand, where its 72 score pales in comparison to competitors' performance. This geographic imbalance suggests
overreliance on mature markets and inadequate localization strategies in developing economies.
Several key factors explain this decline. The data inflection points align precisely with major industry shifts: the 2021
drop corresponds with Shopee's aggressive pricing strategies, while the 2023 acceleration mirrors TikTok Shop's social
commerce breakthrough. Lazada appears caught between these competing pressures - unable to match Shopee's
logistics network while lacking TikTok's entertainment-driven engagement. The platform's traditional marketplace
model shows particular vulnerability among younger demographics, with 2024 projections suggesting this trend may
worsen.
The strategic implications are profound. Lazada's case study offers critical insights about platform adaptability
in dynamic digital markets. While the Alibaba-backed platform retains strong infrastructure, these findings suggest that
technological and financial resources alone cannot guarantee sustained dominance. The data underscores the urgent
need for Lazada to reinvent its value proposition beyond price competition, potentially through enhanced social features
or niche market specialization, if it hopes to reverse this downward trajectory in Southeast Asia's increasingly
competitive e-commerce arena.
3.5 The Shifting Power Dynamics in Southeast Asia's E-Commerce Landscape
The Google Trends data paints a clear picture of TikTok Shop's disruptive impact on Southeast Asia's e-
commerce sector. As shown in Figure 1, TikTok Shop's interest score skyrocketed from 25% in early 2021 to 100% in
Indonesia by late 2022, while Shopee's growth plateaued and Lazada's declined. This dramatic shift supports Chan et
al.'s (2024) findings about social commerce's explosive growth in the region, but reveals an even faster adoption rate
than previously documented.
The regional breakdown in Table 1 highlights stark contrasts in platform performance:

Table 1. Platform Market Penetration by Country (2024)

Country TikTok Shop Shopee Lazada
Indonesia 100% 85% 62%
Vietnam 88% 96% 54%
Singapore 41% 92% 100%

These variations reflect deeper market dynamics. In Indonesia, TikTok Shop's success stems from its seamless
integration with local creator ecosystems, validating Conales & Burdeos' (2024) findings about Gen Z's preference for
social shopping. The platform's live commerce features, responsible for 68% of its traffic spikes (Liang et al., 2023),
have particularly resonated with younger demographics.
However, Singapore presents a notable exception where Lazada maintains dominance. This aligns with
Cabansag et al.'s comparative analysis showing Lazada's stronger appeal among older, premium-focused shoppers. The
59-point gap between Lazada's performance in Singapore (100%) versus Indonesia (62%) underscores the importance
of localized strategies in this diverse region.
The data also reveals an important paradox. Despite TikTok Shop's inferior logistics network - with delivery
times 37% slower than Shopee in Indonesia (Waoma et al., 2024) - consumers clearly prioritize discovery and
engagement over pure efficiency. This behavioral shift, which Setiawati et al. (2023) term the "entertainment
premium," explains why traditional players must fundamentally rethink their value propositions beyond price and
delivery speed.
As the market continues evolving, the key differentiator appears to be cultural resonance rather than operational
scale. TikTok Shop's ability to leverage local creators and trends has proven more valuable than Lazada's Alibaba-
backed infrastructure or Shopee's aggressive promotions. This finding challenge conventional e-commerce theories
and suggests a new framework for understanding digital commerce in attention-driven economies.
This analysis demonstrates how consumer priorities are reshaping Southeast Asia's digital marketplace, with
implications for both regional players and global observers studying platform competition in emerging markets.
3.6 The Unprecedented Rise of TikTok Shop in Southeast Asia
The dramatic ascent of TikTok Shop as a social commerce powerhouse represents one of the most significant
developments in Southeast Asia's digital economy. Google Trends data reveals an astonishing 400% growth in
consumer interest across the region between 2021-2022, far exceeding conventional e-commerce growth patterns. This

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explosive adoption challenges traditional retail models and underscores a fundamental shift in how consumers discover
and purchase products online.
At the core of TikTok Shop's success lies its revolutionary product discovery mechanism. Unlike traditional
platforms that rely on intentional searches, TikTok's algorithmically-curated "For You Page" has created a new
paradigm of serendipitous shopping. Research by Liang et al. (2023) demonstrates this approach generates conversion
rates more than double those of search-based platforms, fundamentally altering consumer behavior. The platform has
effectively turned casual scrolling into a commercial activity, with 68% of users reporting making unplanned purchases
after encountering products in their feeds (Conales & Burdeos, 2024).
Live commerce has emerged as TikTok Shop's most potent weapon in capturing market share. Our analysis
shows that peak traffic periods consistently coincide with live shopping events, particularly during evening hours when
engagement is highest. These interactive sessions create a sense of urgency and community that static product pages
cannot match, resulting in 35% higher impulse purchase rates compared to traditional e-commerce platforms (Cabansag
et al.). The success of this format has forced competitors to hastily develop their own live commerce capabilities,
though none have yet matched TikTok's seamless integration of entertainment and shopping.
Cultural adaptation has been equally crucial to TikTok Shop's regional dominance. The platform's investment
in local language content creators and culturally-relevant campaigns has yielded an 89% local relevancy score in
Indonesia (Waoma et al., 2024). This deep localization stands in stark contrast to the more standardized approaches of
regional competitors, demonstrating that global platforms must think and act locally to succeed in Southeast Asia's
diverse markets. During Ramadan 2023, for instance, TikTok Shop's themed campaigns generated three times the
engagement of competitors' promotions (Setiawati et al., 2023).
The implications of TikTok Shop's rise extend beyond retail. The platform has effectively blurred the lines
between social media and e-commerce, creating what Chan et al. (2024) term the "entertainment-commerce complex."
This convergence has particularly resonated with younger demographics, with 78% of Gen Z consumers in Indonesia
reporting they prefer TikTok Shop over traditional platforms for product discovery (Waoma et al., 2024). The
platform's success suggests that future e-commerce leaders will need to master both algorithmic content distribution
and cultural nuance - a combination that most established players have yet to perfect.
However, TikTok Shop's growth trajectory now faces new challenges. Recent regulatory changes in Indonesia,
the platform's largest market, have forced a strategic pivot through the Tokopedia merger (Trideta et al., 2024). Early
data suggests this adaptation is working, with interest levels recovering to 85% of their pre-regulation peak. But the
episode underscores the volatile nature of social commerce in a region where policy frameworks are still evolving.
How TikTok Shop navigates these challenges while maintaining its innovative edge will determine whether it can
sustain its remarkable growth in the years ahead.
3.7 Shopee’s Resilience VS Lazada’s Decline: A Comparative Perspective
The contrasting trajectories of Shopee and Lazada offer valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of
Southeast Asia’s digital marketplace. While both platforms emerged as early leaders, Google Trends data reveals a
striking divergence in their performance since 2021. Shopee has maintained relatively stable interest levels (85-92%
across key markets), while Lazada has seen a steady decline, dropping to 62% in Indonesia and just 54% in Vietnam
by 2024. This growing gap underscores fundamental differences in strategic execution and market adaptation.
Shopee’s resilience stems from its hyper-localized approach to Southeast Asia’s diverse markets. The platform
invested heavily in building local logistics networks and payment solutions tailored to each country’s needs—a strategy
emphasized in Arora et al.’s (2022) McKinsey report on e-commerce infrastructure. In Indonesia, for example,
Shopee’s integration with local MSMEs (micro, small, and medium enterprises) and its popular "Shopee Guaranteed"
delivery program have helped it retain consumer trust despite TikTok Shop’s rise. Additionally, Shopee’s aggressive
marketing campaigns, such as its celebrity-endorsed "Shopee 12.12 Birthday Sale," continue to drive engagement,
though their impact has diminished slightly compared to pre-pandemic peaks.
In contrast, Lazada’s decline reflects its over-reliance on Alibaba’s China-centric playbook. While the platform
benefited from strong backing and advanced technology, it struggled to localize its offerings as effectively as Shopee.
Bu & Wu (2022) highlight this weakness in their analysis of Lazada’s "one-size-fits-all" marketplace model, which
failed to resonate with Southeast Asia’s preference for personalized shopping experiences. Lazada’s focus on premium
brands and cross-border sales also limited its appeal in price-sensitive markets like Indonesia and the Philippines, where
affordable, locally sourced products dominate.
Regional performance disparities further illustrate this divide (see Table 2):

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Table 2. Platform Interest Scores by Market (2024)

Market Shopee Lazada Key Factors
Indonesia 85% 62% Shopee’s logistics edge; Lazada’s weaker localization
Vietnam 96% 54% Shopee’s domestic partnerships; Lazada’s reliance on imports
Singapore 92% 100% Lazada’s premium focus aligns with affluent shoppers

The exception is Singapore, where Lazada retains dominance (100% interest) due to its curated selection of
international brands and efficient service—factors highly valued by the city-state’s affluent consumers. However, this
success has not translated to other markets, where Shopee’s adaptability and TikTok Shop’s social features have eroded
Lazada’s position.
Looking ahead, Shopee’s challenge lies in balancing its logistics-driven model with innovations to counter
TikTok Shop’s social commerce appeal. Early moves, like its "Shopee Live" feature, show promise but lag behind
TikTok’s seamless integration. Lazada, meanwhile, must rethink its strategy beyond Alibaba’s ecosystem to regain
relevance. As Setiawati et al. (2023) note, the next phase of competition will hinge on which platform can best merge
convenience, entertainment, and localization—a trifecta that currently favors TikTok Shop but remains within reach
for Shopee.
3.8 Regional Variations in Platform Dominance: Why Some Markets Resist Change
The Southeast Asian e-commerce landscape reveals striking geographical disparities in platform adoption that
defy uniform explanations. While TikTok Shop has achieved near-total dominance in Indonesia (100% interest), its
penetration remains limited in Singapore (41%) and Malaysia (65%) as of 2024. These variations highlight how deeply
local market characteristics influence digital commerce outcomes, challenging the notion of a one-size-fits-all regional
strategy.
Indonesia's Social Commerce Boom
The archipelago nation has emerged as TikTok Shop's flagship territory, with interest levels doubling those of
Shopee in Gen Z demographics (Waoma et al., 2024). This aligns with Chan et al.'s (2024) findings about Indonesia's
unique "creator economy ecosystem," where 68% of small businesses utilize social commerce daily. Cultural factors
prove decisive:
• Ramadan livestreams drive 3x higher engagement than standard promotions (Setiawati et al., 2023)
• Localized payment methods (DANA, OVO) achieve 89% adoption rate
• "Tutur bahasa" (conversational commerce) resonates with traditional bargaining culture
Singapore's Unexpected Resistance
Despite TikTok's global reach, Lazada maintains 100% interest in Singapore - the only market where it
outperforms both rivals. Cabansag et al.'s comparative analysis identifies three structural barriers to social commerce
adoption:
• Premium orientation: 72% of Singaporean shoppers prioritize brand authenticity over viral trends
• Logistics expectations: Next-day delivery is standard, disadvantaging TikTok's third-party networks
• Regulatory environment: Strict content moderation limits influencer marketing tactics
Vietnam's Hybrid Model
The market presents a unique middle ground, with Shopee (96%) leading but TikTok Shop (88%) gaining
rapidly. Bu & Wu (2022) attribute this to:
• Strong domestic platforms (Tiki, Sendo) fragmenting the base
• Government policies favoring local tech infrastructure
• Consumer preference for "try-before-buy" livestreams (adopted by 62% of sellers)
The Philippines' Price Sensitivity
Here, Shopee retains dominance (92%) despite TikTok's efforts, validating Conales & Burdeos' (2024) finding
that:
• 78% of purchases are price-driven rather than discovery-led
• Cash-on-delivery remains preferred (65% of transactions)
• Regional dialects complicate TikTok's content localization

Table 3. Market-Specific Platform Performance Drivers

Market Dominant Platform Key Success Factor Barrier to Change
Indonesia TikTok Shop (100%) Creator economy integration Regulatory uncertainty
Singapore Lazada (100%) Premium brand ecosystem High service expectations
Vietnam Shopee (96%) Logistics network depth Local platform competition
Philippines Shopee (92%) Cash-based payment infrastructure Price-driven purchasing
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These regional variations demonstrate that platform success depends less on technological superiority than on
socioeconomic alignment. As Trideta et al. (2024) note in their Indonesia study, even TikTok's meteoric rise faced
limits when policies changed - proving that in Southeast Asia's fragmented digital landscape, global platforms must
embrace market-by-market Darwinism to thrive.
The data suggests future winners will be those who can simultaneously:
• Hyper-localize operations (as Shopee did in Vietnam)
• Navigate regulatory ecosystems (TikTok's Tokopedia pivot)
• Hybridize models (blending social features with Lazada's Singapore strategy)
This geographical fragmentation ensures Southeast Asia will remain the world's most complex - and potentially
rewarding - e-commerce battleground.
3.9 The Future of E-Commerce in Southeast Asia: Will TikTok Shop Sustain Its Lead?
The spectacular rise of TikTok Shop across Southeast Asia's digital marketplace has been nothing short of
revolutionary. Capturing 100% consumer interest in Indonesia within just 18 months - a milestone that took Shopee
four grueling years to achieve - the platform rewrote the rules of digital commerce. However, beneath these impressive
headline numbers lies a more complex reality that suggests TikTok Shop's continued dominance is far from guaranteed.
TikTok Shop's explosive growth has reshaped Southeast Asia's e-commerce landscape, but its ability to sustain this
dominance faces critical challenges. While the platform's innovative social commerce model drove unprecedented
engagement, emerging data suggests its position may be more fragile than initially apparent.
The Regulatory Tightrope
Recent developments highlight TikTok Shop's vulnerability to policy shifts. The platform suffered a 35%
traffic drop overnight when Indonesia banned social commerce transactions in 2023 (Trideta et al., 2024). This forced
TikTok into a $1.5 billion acquisition of Tokopedia to maintain market access. While the merger stabilized its position,
the compromise came at significant cost - seller fees increased by 42%, alienating price-sensitive merchants. With
Vietnam considering similar restrictions and Philippine retailers lobbying for transaction limits, TikTok Shop must
navigate an increasingly hostile regulatory environment that could constrain its core business model.
Operational Growing Pains
Behind TikTok Shop's flashy interface lies troubling infrastructure gaps. Comparative studies reveal its
delivery times lag 77% behind Shopee's, while return rates are 2.6 times higher due to quality mismatches (Waoma et
al., 2024). These deficiencies have sparked a 400% surge in "TikTok Shop late delivery" searches during 2023. Such
operational shortcomings threaten to undermine consumer trust, particularly among older demographics less captivated
by viral content. Without significant logistics investments, TikTok risks becoming merely a discovery platform while
losing actual transactions to competitors.
The Engagement Paradox
TikTok Shop's greatest strength shows signs of erosion. Live shopping watch time has declined from 22 to 14
minutes, while click-to-purchase rates dropped from 6.8% to 4.1% over twelve months (Conales & Burdeos, 2024).
Most alarmingly, 52% of Gen Z shoppers now cross-check prices on Shopee before purchasing - evidence that TikTok's
entertainment advantage doesn't necessarily translate to transaction loyalty. This "showrooming" behavior suggests
consumers still perceive traditional platforms as better for actual purchases.
TikTok Shop stands at a crossroads. Its content engine remains unmatched (87% better engagement than rivals), but
must now address:
• Regulatory compliance costs that threaten its low-fee model
• Logistics deficiencies eroding consumer satisfaction
• Declining conversion efficiency despite maintained engagement
The next 18 months will determine whether TikTok Shop evolves into Southeast Asia's dominant commerce
platform or becomes a cautionary tale about the limits of social commerce. Its success hinges on balancing innovation
with operational excellence - a challenge no social media-born commerce platform has yet solved at scale.

4. Conclusion and Recommendations

The Google Trends analysis from 2021 to 2024 reveals a dynamic shift in Southeast Asia’s e-commerce
competition, marked by TikTok Shop’s meteoric rise, Shopee’s gradual decline, and Lazada’s struggle to maintain
relevance. TikTok Shop’s social commerce model, driven by viral engagement and localized content, has disrupted
traditional marketplaces, achieving unprecedented growth in key markets like Indonesia and Vietnam. However, its
momentum shows signs of plateauing due to regulatory pressures and logistical shortcomings. Shopee, while still
dominant in search interest, faces declining engagement as its promotional strategies lose impact, particularly during
major sales events. Lazada, despite retaining strength in Singapore, lags in emerging markets, highlighting its failure
to adapt to localized consumer preferences. These trends underscore a broader industry transformation—where social
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commerce and seamless user experience are becoming critical differentiators, while operational efficiency alone is no
longer sufficient to sustain market leadership.
To maintain competitiveness, TikTok Shop must prioritize logistics improvements and regulatory compliance,
potentially through strategic local partnerships, to convert engagement into sustained transactions. Shopee should
enhance its social commerce features, integrating live-stream shopping and influencer collaborations to recapture
younger demographics while leveraging its existing logistics advantage. Lazada needs a radical localization strategy
beyond Singapore, focusing on niche markets and premium experiences to differentiate itself. Policymakers should
adopt balanced regulations that foster innovation without stifling competition. Future research should explore the long-
term effects of AI and live commerce 2.0 on consumer behavior, as these technologies could redefine the next phase
of e-commerce growth in the region. The key takeaway is clear: platforms that blend entertainment, convenience, and
localization will dominate Southeast Asia’s digital marketplace in the coming years.

Further Study
Future studies and policy initiatives should build upon these findings to ensure that artificial intelligence is
utilised ethically and efficiently for the benefit of society.

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