Quantifying risk formulas

Odds of event = P / (1-P) Odds Ratio (OR) = Odds of exposure in cases / Odds
of exposure in control
Odds = 1 num / 1 num (Rest)
Used in case-control studies
P
Odds =
1−P (a/c) ad
​

OR = =
(b/d)
​ ​

bc
P: probability

Example: In Dice, P=1/6, Odds= 1/5

Risk: probability of developing a disease over a certain Relative risk (RR) = Risk of disease in exposed / risk in
period of time. unexposed group

Number of affected individuals Used in cohort studies

Risk =
Total individuals in exposure group
​

(a/(a + b))
RR =
(c/(c + d))
​

Risk = 1 num / 2 num (Sum)

Relative risk reduction (RRR) = Proportion by which the intervention reduces the risk of an outcome compared to the
control group.

Relative risk reduction (RRR) = Absolute risk reduction / Risk in control

Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) ARC − ART

RRR = 1 − RR = =
Risk in Control (ARC)
​ ​

ARC

Attributable risk (AR) aka Absolute risk increase = Number Needed to Harm (NNH) = Number of people
Risk of disease in exposed - risk in unexposed group who need to be exposed to a risk factor for one
additional person to be harmed.
AR = ( )−( )
a c
a+b
​

c+d
​

1
NN H = ​

AR

Attributable risk Percentage (AR%)

RR − 1
ARP = ( ) × 100
​

RR

Absolute risk reduction (ARR) = Risk of disease in Number Needed to Treat (NNT) = Number of people
control - risk of disease in treatment group who need to receive a treatment to prevent one
additional bad outcome.
ARR = ARC − ART = ( )−( )
c a
c+d
​

a+b
​

1
NNT = ​

ARR

Case Fatality Rate (CFR) = (Deaths from disease / Total cases of disease) × 100

Deaths from disease

CFR = ( ) × 100
Total cases of disease
​

Mortality Rate = (Total deaths / Total population) × 1000 (or other unit)

Total deaths
Mortality Rate = ( ) × 1000
Total population
​

Quantifying risk formulas 1

 Attack Rate = (Number of new cases / Total population at risk) × 100

Number of new cases

Attack Rate = ( ) × 100
Total population at risk
​

Here is a table summarizing the formulas along with their meanings:

Measure Formula Meaning

Ratio of the odds of exposure in

cases to the odds of exposure
Odds Ratio (OR) (a/c) / (b/d) = (a * d) / (b * c)
in controls (used in case-control
studies).

Ratio of the risk of an outcome

in the exposed group to the risk
Relative Risk (RR) (a / (a + b)) / (c / (c + d))
in the unexposed group (used in
cohort studies).

Proportion by which the

intervention reduces the risk of
Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) 1 - RR
an outcome compared to the
control group.

Difference in incidence of an
outcome between exposed and
Attributable Risk (AR) (a / (a + b)) - (c / (c + d))
unexposed groups (excess risk
due to exposure).

Reduction in absolute risk of an

Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) (c / (c + d)) - (a / (a + b))
outcome due to an intervention.

Number of people who need to

Number Needed to Treat (NNT) 1 / ARR receive a treatment to prevent
one additional bad outcome.

Number of people who need to

be exposed to a risk factor for
Number Needed to Harm (NNH) 1 / AR
one additional person to be
harmed.

(Deaths from disease / Total Percentage of individuals with a

Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
cases of disease) × 100 disease who die from it.

(Total deaths / Total Number of deaths in a given

Mortality Rate population) × 1000 (or other population over a specific
unit) period.

Proportion of a population that

(Number of new cases / Total
Attack Rate develops a disease during an
population at risk) × 100
outbreak.

Quantifying risk formulas 2