GEOFILE 872

Water: a geopolitical issue

Kim Adams and Glenda Gardiner

Synopsis Tragedy of the commons: where a shared natural

Water is a key, finite transboundary resource, a ‘global common’ (the oceans, space, Antarctica) is
resource. Mismatches between supply exploited by some at the expense of others.
and demand may trigger geopolitical
disputes both within and between Learning objectives
countries. This GeoFile examines the After working through this GeoFile, you will be able to:
causes of river basin disagreements, and ● understand that physical and human causes of water hot
the effectiveness of management, at spots or flash points may originate from historical
regional and international scales. geopolitical disputes
So far, ‘water wars’ have generally been ● outline the different scales of transboundary water supply
averted by diplomacy: transboundary issues and management, and the involvement of
water can be a source of cooperation as superpowers
well as conflict. Nevertheless, many ● appreciate the impacts of changing climate on water
tensions arise from mega-engineering geopolitics
schemes built by upstream countries ● assess the synoptic links between place identity,
without consulting their downstream geopolitics, the water cycle, water management initiatives,
neighbours. Where they exist, biodiversity loss and the climate emergency.
management agreements and treaties
fixing water use may be inequitable, or Links to specifications
not adhered to.
Exam Link to specification
The climate emergency is increasing board
water resource ‘hotspots’, changing AQA AS [Link] Water abstraction p9
water storage and flows, against a Click here
backdrop of rising demand, nationalism A2 [Link] Water Security p28
and a multi-polar world. Click here
[Link] - Case Study to illustrate the availability, cost of
Key terms water, and the way it is used p29
Geopolitics: how the human and Click here
physical geography of places affects Edexcel 5.8c The potential for conflicts to occur between
politics and international relations. trans-boundary water sources p44
AS/A
Hydropolitics: conflict and Click here
cooperation between riparian (river) OCR 2.2.4 Paper 2 Option D Power and Borders. What is the role
states over water resources. A2 of global governance in conflict? p28

Hydro-diplomacy: how discussions Click here

and agreements between stakeholders Eduqas 2.1.5 Extraction p21
try to resolve potential or existing Click here
conflicts over the use of water. 3.3.3 Water availability p31
Click here
Water hotspots: places where issues
WJEC 3.1.5 Deficit in the water cycle p27
of water supply and use may result in
flash points for conflicts. Click here

Water stress: when annual water

supply drops below 1,700m3 per capita.

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GEOFILE ● 872

Water: a geopolitical issue

Causes of water Water, as a fluid, fluctuating Supplies have been targeted
geopolitics resource, often lies beyond the by military conflict in the
control of governments. Whilst region.
Physical factors 60% of rivers are transboundary, ● Breaching of the Nova
The United Nations classifies 66% of these have no water- Kakhovka dam on the River
313 rivers and lakes, and sharing agreements, and only Dnipro by Russia damaged
600 aquifers as transboundary 13% have formal basin-wide Ukraine’s economy, affecting
(Figure 1). 153 countries share commitments. Of 149 water almost 1 million people by
286 river and lake basins and treaties, 86% are bilateral flooding (EU Council).
592 aquifers. treaties (UN). Many agreements Geopolitical issues often centre
Climate change is affecting are outdated and unfair; they on mega-dams (Figure 2).
global hydrological cycle flows are dominated by the country
controlling a river’s headwaters. Figure 3 summarises the
and stores as rising temperatures interplay of factors influencing
melt ice sheets and glaciers, alter Geopolitical tensions over the hydropolitics of water
rainfall patterns, deplete rivers, water resources have escalated. supply and quality, resulting in
lakes, and groundwater, and The Pacific Institute think tank hydro-diplomacy and
pollute aquifers by sea water categorises disputes into water avoidance of ‘water wars’.
intrusion. control or access; use of water as
a weapon (weaponisation) and
Human factors
water supply as a casualty of
NASA and the Global Water another conflict. In 2023 two
Forum project that population, events exemplified the
consumerism and economic complexity of transboundary
growth will escalate freshwater water conflicts:
demand by 55% between 2000
and 2050. Agriculture accounts ● Gaza territory depends on
for 70% of demand. 60% of all transboundary piped water
countries rely on food imports, and groundwater wells from
the over-used coastal aquifer, Figure 2 Public opposition in
effectively ‘outsourcing’
both controlled by Israel. Paraguay to the Itaipu Dam Treaty’s
demand. inequitable sharing of water with
Brazil 2019
Source: Norberto Duarte / Getty

Figure 1 Global transboundary rivers and aquifers, with recent water Figure 3 Physical, socio-economic
conflict ‘hotspots’. and political factors contributing to
Source: Water Conflict Chronology ([Link])/the Pacific Institute hydropolitics

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GEOFILE Water: a geopolitical issue ● 872

Transboundary water Climate change accounts for ● Allocations are to be

issues 50% of the reduction renegotiated by 2026.
(Colorado Water Institute). Arguments over which state
Water governance is seldom
Rising temperatures and early should reduce water use most
newsworthy, yet underpins
snowmelt from the Rocky featured in Biden and Trump’s
global society. These case studies
Mountains are increasing 2024 election campaigns.
are from regions and countries
‘mega-droughts’ such as that Changes in power on the Nile
with different and changing
in 2020. Hoover Dam’s Lake
levels of development, power, The Nile, disputed for centuries,
Mead and Glen Canyon’s Lake
and management success. All drains 10% of Africa, supporting
Powell ‘mega-reservoirs’ are
are affected by climate change. 437 million people (1 billion by
shrinking.
Differential water supply within 2050). The dominant player,
● The 1922 Colorado River unusually, has been the country
countries has often led to Compact fixed water
controversial infrastructure at the river’s lower reaches and
allocations to upper (Wyoming, mouth: Egypt.
responses (mega-storage dams Utah, Colorado, New Mexico)
and transfers by rivers, pipes, and lower (Arizona, Nevada, ● Egypt is North Africa’s
canals), notably China’s South- California) basin states. greatest economic, military
to-North transfer. The UK However, these were unfair and technological regional
(Figure 4) and the Colorado and pre-dated climate change. power. It depends heavily on
basin are examples of regional Water disputes and litigation the Nile’s water. Treaties
and international tensions at escalated between states, city (1929 and 1959) during the
different scales. authorities, farmers, era of colonial rule granted
environmentalists, majority riparian rights to
International and interstate
recreationalists and Egypt and Sudan, lacking
issues along the Colorado River
marginalised native Americans. consideration to upstream
The heavily contested Colorado countries.
River supports the demand for ● In 2014 an amendment
between the US and Mexico ● Efforts at cooperative
water, food, energy and
(Minute 213) started ‘pulse management started in 1999
recreation of over 40 million
releases’ of water to revitalise with the Nile Basin Initiative
people in the US and Mexico.
the lower flood plain and delta (NBI) and 2010 saw the
● Since the 1960s, the last and re-establish riparian forests. Entebbe Cooperative
160 km of the 2,330 km-long ● In 2023, California, Nevada Framework Agreement (CFA),
Colorado has rarely reached and Arizona agreed a 13% cut but not all countries support
the sea. River flows have in water use, in exchange for this.
dropped by 20% since 1900. compensation to farmers. ● In 2011, Ethiopia, controlling
85% of the river’s headwaters,
challenged the status quo by
ignoring the treaties and
began building the Grand
Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
(GERD), aided by China
(Figure 5). The reservoir,
larger in size than Greater
London, started filling in
2023. It will be able to store
88% of the Nile’s annual flow.
Electrification is a
development keystone, and
Ethiopia aims to use its HEP
as soon as possible, selling any
excess to Sudan. Both
Figure 4 Regional transboundary water issues in the UK Ethiopia and Egypt became
Source: The Environment Agency and Welsh Senedd

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GEOFILE Water: a geopolitical issue ● 872

geopolitical competition’ and the

scene of ‘proxy wars’ between
emerging and existing
superpowers (China, India and
the US) (Diplomat newspaper).
China is effectively weaponising
water, exploiting the ‘commons’
of its rivers as a sovereign right,
not consulting with downstream
countries. Climate change may
prove to be a unifying factor,
stimulating wider cooperation
between currently rival
Figure 5 GERD in 2020 countries.
Source: DPA Picture Alliance / Alamy
Hydropolitics at a global scale
members of the BRICS stress (data from NBI, BBC,
Water-sharing conflicts have
grouping of emerging World Bank and others).
triggered involvement from
economies in 2024.
Geopolitics in river basins with global organisations including
● Concern over regional
no agreements the UN and the World Bank.
destabilisation and even war
Transboundary basins with low Water lacks a single
between Egypt, Sudan and
populations, low demand and international treaty, but the UN
Ethiopia (which might
plentiful water may not need Geneva Conventions view water
threaten the Suez Canal’s
international agreements. access is a fundamental human
international trade route) has
However, many basins need an right, and water infrastructure a
triggered mediation by the US
agreement or a better one, protected civilian asset.
and the EU.
attracting global attention. The The 1992 Helsinki Convention
● There are concerns over the ● 
Mekong and Brahmaputra on the Protection and Use of
hydrological and biodiversity
Rivers (Figure 6) have become Transboundary Watercourses
impacts of reduced flows and
‘theatres of global rivalry and
sediment downstream. The
UN predicts reduced rainfall The Mekong: partial The Yarlung-Tsangpo-
will reduce river flow by 70% water-sharing agreements Brahmaputra (YTRB),
by 2100. called the Lancang in
The Senegal’s flagship China: no water-sharing
transboundary agreement agreements
Basic facts ● Tibet’s Himalayas are the source of eight major
The Senegal River Basin
transboundary river systems, vital to 3 billion people.
Development Authority (OMVS) The ice and glacier headwater stores are shrinking
was established in 1972, following rapidly.
severe droughts in Senegal, Mali,
● Both rivers are revered and culturally significant.
Guinea and Mauritania. The
4,900 km long, supporting 2,900 km, supporting 130
OMVS shares dams and electricity
65 million people. million people
infrastructure along its 1800-km
Countries China, Myanmar and Lower Tibet (China), Bhutan, India,
length.
(in order of flow) Mekong River Basin states Bangladesh
In 2021 joint management of (LMRBS): Laos, Vietnam,
the Senegal-Mauritanian Thailand, Cambodia
Aquifer began, supported by the Socio - economic ● Second only to the ● Provides 30% of India’s
EU and UN. It supplies 80% & biodiversity Amazon in biodiversity and 70% of Bangladesh’s
(20 million) of the population. significance ● Has the world’s largest freshwater
However, desertification is inland fishery. ● A vital HEP source
affecting the Senegal’s ● Critical for irrigating SE
headwaters, causing water Asia’s ‘rice bowl’.

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GEOFILE Water: a geopolitical issue ● 872

and International Lakes, Transboundary ● 1957 LMRBS water- ● Historical geopolitical

ratified by 130 countries, was agreements sharing cooperation, disputes between India
extended in 2016. This legal started by the US and and China, and India
framework promotes UN. China and Burma and Bangladesh, have
sustainable water management, (Myanmar) were hindered formal water-
conflict prevention, and excluded. This became sharing agreements and
regional integration. the Mekong River basic data-sharing.
Agreement (1995), with Out of 54 rivers flowing
● 1997 Convention on the ●
some joint from India to
Non-Navigable Uses of
environmental Bangladesh, only the
International Watercourses has
monitoring and flood Ganges has an
the principle of ‘sustainable control success. agreement (Farakka
and equitable use of shared
● In 2016 China formed Treaty).
rivers’. China has not signed.
the Lancang-Mekong ● China, as part of its
● 2010 Human Right to Water Cooperation to channel rivalry with India, is
was reinforced by Goal 6 of aid to Laos and Bangladesh’s biggest
the Sustainable Development Cambodia investor, aiding water
Goals (SDGs): clean water and (part of its ‘Belt and storage on the River
sanitation for all by 2030. Road’ and ‘Go West’ Teesta (tributary of the
strategies). Brahmaputra).
● Despite progress, the 2023
UN’s World Water ● In 2020 the US-Mekong ● China controls half of
Development Report found Partnership began with the basin. Its Medog
only 58% of transboundary LMRBS and Myanmar. ‘Great Bend Dam’ plan
The US accused China of will generate twice the
basins and 42% of aquifers
upstream manipulation HEP of its Three Gorges
(often part of broader water
(by building 5 mega- scheme. In response,
agreements) had operational
dams and 100 tributary India plans more dams
cooperation arrangements. dams since 1990). and diversions to
● Water supply has recently been mitigate reduced flow.
used as a weapon in Ukraine Data sources ● MRC ● US Institute of Peace
and Gaza. The numbers of include ● King’s think tank ● BBC
‘climate refugees’ from water
supply conflicts will add ● Diplomat newspaper ● N Manhas & Dr R Lad,
complexity to the geopolitics of Indo-Pacific Journal
March 2024
regions.
Figure 6 Fact file on the Mekong and Brahmaputra Rivers

Conclusion Often hydropolitics occurs in Cooperative, integrated, updated

Transboundary water is a growing regions with existing geopolitical agreements can prevent water
geopolitical issue, with the nexus conflicts. In a globalised world of being a ‘tragedy of the
of rising demand, mega projects, trade with complex international commons’.
water weaponisation, the relations, the spillover effect of
The role of hydropolitics in
involvement of regional and river basin geopolitics seems
maintaining world peace
superpowers, the climate crisis, inevitable. This explains more
explains the focus of the UN’s
and potentially millions of ‘water advocacy by global organisations
annual World Water Day in
refugees’ (refer to GeoFile 843, of more equitable and flexible
2024: ‘Water for Peace’.
Climate Nomads). water-sharing policies.

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GEOFILE Water: a geopolitical issue ● 872

Learning checkpoint
1 Use Figure 3 to make notes on the factors affecting Future scenarios in water Cause of Conflicting
the scale of geopolitical issues in the case studies geopolitics conflicts players
given.
1. Water refugees escaping
2 Using the 2024 interactive map from the Pacific from drought hotspots in
Institute Click here investigate the range of water Mexico, the Middle East and
conflict hotspots in Figure 1. South Asia need managing
3 Using the case studies and the following media- 2. Governments are not ready
style headlines, identify the chief cause of the issue to meet limited food
and the players who are in conflict. Some are taken production from water
from PEW Click here. scarcity hotspots
3. Will China’s ‘great thirst’
spark new international
conflict on the Brahmaputra?
4. US mediation will fail:
Ethiopia’s GERD is an
existential threat to Egypt
5. How will countries cope with
disappearing groundwater
and glaciers?

Focus questions
1 Assess the relative importance of physical and 3 Essay question: ‘Increasing demand for water is
human factors in creating water insecurity between inevitably causing an increase in the importance of
and within countries. geopolitics.’ To what extent do you agree with this
statement?
2 Evaluate the view that transboundary water supplies
inevitably cause conflict. You could plan this by
using the following grid to select data from this
GeoFile.

Agree Conflicts Disagree

Are
inevitable
Locations/
case studies

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GEOFILE
872
Extension

Water: a geopolitical issue

Challenge yourself Ready for more?
1 Investigate how climate Use the resource materials in the table below.
change may increase ‘Bridging borders for water security’, a short video by the Click here
geopolitical conflicts. World Bank on the need for international water agreements, Click here
2 What evidence is there that 2024.
fresh water is an example of a ‘Why hydropolitics will shape the 21st Century’, BBC Click here
‘tragedy of the commons’? overview, 2022.
3 Many great aquifer systems ‘How water shortages are brewing wars’, BBC 2021. Click here
are ‘mined’ for irrigation for Interactive map of water conflicts, Pacific Institute think tank. Click here
the major food-producing Click here
regions of the world. Short video overview of conflicts and Helsinki Agreement, Click here
Investigate the geopolitical UNECE, 2023.
issues of aquifers such as the Map of future of water hotspots, PEW, a charitable research Click here
US’s Central Valley and organisation, 2019.
Ogallala aquifers, and those of 2023 overview of global water geopolitics by Antonia Click here
the Middle East. Click here for a Colibasanu from the Foreign Policy Research Institute,
useful starting point. and a useful introduction to issues in China, Iran,
Pakistan
Further research
In small groups, discuss what you have learned regarding the future
1 Research the links between of water supply plus conflicts and solutions surrounding it. Draw a
governance, economic small number of conclusions regarding the likely future situation.
development, poverty, and
response to water shortages.
Is there evidence for poorer
countries having more violent
responses, whilst wealthier
ones use diplomacy and
technological fixes to address
water stress challenges? Start
with the Pacific Institute
interactive map.
2 Use the following link as a
starting point to evaluate the
nexus of causes of water
geopolitics in the MENA
region, and to evaluate the
role of climatic change in a
pre-existing arid area:
Click here

© Oxford University Press 2025 GeoFile, Series 43 Issue 2, January 2025 7